DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 7-11)
The low pressure area that went by our region early yesterday left behind a layer of cold air at the surface, and if you are used to the late winter / early spring weather in this area, you know that those cold layers are often very tough to dislodge once they are established. This will be the case today, even as a formidable low pressure area tracks from the Great Lakes into southeastern Canada. Its warm front is going to struggle to erode the cold layer. Higher dew points in place over our snow cover is producing fairly widespread fog underneath a layer of low clouds. The warm front that extends from the aforementioned low pressure area will take until this evening to finally make its way across the entire Woods Hill Weather forecast area, doing so first near the South Coast and eastern Connecticut, and lastly in the NH Seacoast region. While it’s a rain-free warm frontal passage, there will be some patches of light drizzle with the fog as a result of low level moisture in place prior to the approach and passage of the front. Clouds probably never break and sun is not seen anywhere today, but if this was to happen it would not occur until late-day and favor areas to the west and southwest of Boston. Clouds remain dominant tonight, but we’ll see a temperature rise across the region as we are finally into the warm sector of the low. Its cold front will sweep across the region during the morning on Sunday with clouds and rain showers. This is the same system that produced the severe thunderstorms and tornadoes from the Plains to the Great Lakes yesterday. Thankfully for our area, the conditions will not support severe weather, just rain showers. As the front goes by, the wind shifts to westerly and drier air arrives. I mentioned previously that the source region for the air behind the cold front isn’t really cold, so it’ll be a mild afternoon on Sunday. The active weather pattern then sends another low tracking eastward, set to pass to our north early in the coming week. Its warm front goes by the region by Monday evening, but the the daytime up to that point will be decent, with some high and mid level clouds sharing the sky with the sun, and relatively mild air – not much different than what we’ll have on Sunday, though the coast may end up cooler with more of an onshore wind developing ahead of the warm front. As the second low pressure area also travels across southeastern Canada, its cold front won’t sweep as cleanly across our region as the first low’s cold front does on Sunday. During Tuesday it will become more west-to-east oriented while held back by high pressure to our south, and this will promote warmer air to become more dominant. During this time, high pressure will also build in eastern Canada – a source of colder air waiting to pounce. This will happen as the cold front sags to the south and passes through our region. My forecast question was the timing on this front – whether it would hold back and allow a warmer day Tuesday, or come southward more quickly and cut off the warmth sooner. This is still something I am working out for the more detailed aspects of Tuesday’s forecast, and for now I am just generalizing with thinking that the front will cross the region “during the day”, but late enough in most areas for 60+ high temperatures. Earlier this week, I discussed doubt about Wednesday being a warm day as was shone by much of the medium range guidance, which often under-estimates the strength of high pressure in eastern Canada and often over-estimates the ability for warm air to surge into New England at this time of year, especially when you have remaining snow cover (and we still will have some, even though we lose much of it prior to then). At the same time, the still-active pattern sends another low pressure disturbance in our direction via the Great Lakes, and this likely means we combine that system from the west with moisture and colder air from the north and northeast, meaning that Wednesday ends up resembling yesterday and today here. Obviously, there will be some additional details to work out with this since it is still several days away…
*** FINAL REMINDER: This is the final day of Standard Time for this cycle, and the switch to Daylight Saving Time takes place tomorrow (Sunday) as 2:00 a.m. EST becomes 3:00 a.m. EDT. Remember to switch any clocks that do not do so automatically before you retire tonight!
TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of drizzle and fog through midday. Highs 39-46. Wind calm, then eventually S up to 10 MPH from southwest to northeast.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers arrive west to east overnight. Temperatures rise slightly to 46-53. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain showers morning. Increasing sun west to east afternoon. Highs 53-60 except steady 46-53 Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible, shifting to W.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52 South Coast, coolest Cape Cod, 52-59 elsewhere. Wind W under 10 MPH shifting to SE.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 37-44 evening before a slow rise occurs overnight. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH shifting to SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 50-57 South Coast – coolest Cape Cod, 58-65 elsewhere, but a quick temperature drop is possible in southeastern NH and northeastern MA during the afternoon. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH may shift to N-NE in southern NH and northern MA during the afternoon.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Temperatures steady 38-45. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 12-16)
Volatile mid March pattern. Early period low pressure tracks close to or just north of the region with a potential brief temperatures spike and rain showers followed by a quick temperature drop late next week. Afterward additional unsettled weather meeting colder air can mean a potential variety of precipitation – timing and details TBD.
DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 17-21)
Overall pattern leans cold with near to above normal precipitation. Regardless of the weather pattern, the Vernal Equinox (start of spring) occurs at 10:46 a.m. EDT on Friday March 20.
Thanks TK.
TK – What does a strong El Niño pattern mean for our future weather?
El Niño vs. La Niña…I just don’t get it.
We’ve gone over this many times on the blog over the years. Explanations, links, etc. No doubt, we’ll be talking more about it as always so look for those.
Neither phase of ENSO has a set of “this is how it is with no exceptions” impacts. They have impacts that are more likely than other outcomes, but the eventual result is always dependent on a larger combination of factors.
Weather and climate are too complex to fit onto proverbial picture frames on neat shelves. There are too many varying outcomes, which is probably part of your confusion.
Best advice is to just follow along as it comes up from day to day, week to week.
Good morning and thank you TK.
Great discussion as always.
36 here after being 35 all night.
Ocean: 36
WORDLE: 5
I’m back on the train!!
Nice !!
Glad you made the train today!
I’m in the 5-car with you.
All aboard and Welcome!!!
Well done JPD and SClarke!!
Thanks for the detailed report.
Thanks TK !
Wordle: 4
Excellent!!!!
Very nice, Tom. May I please join your car ?
Wordle 4
Welcome !
Superb!!
El Niño, I think, affects the mid latitudes more in winter and the tropics more in summer.
El Niño tends, in winter to produce a mild and drier northern US and a cool and weather southern US, sometimes with extremely strong atmospheric rivers into the west coast, particularly California.
In summer, El Niño produces a flow in the tropics that tends to produce increased wind shear and a decrease in the amount of tropical systems.
Those are generalities. Doesn’t mean exactness as the 92 tropical system didn’t have a ton of activity, but produced cat 5 Andrew for south Florida.
Thank you. I tend to get this mixed up in my old mind.
Thank you, TK.
Thank you, TK. We are 35 up from 32.
I’ve been taking screen shots of you temps 3ish days out and sending to my granddaughter. They are greatly appreciated. These temp swings are very difficult for horses plus deciding what blanket to use overnight is Also difficult.
Soooooo. Did you make a pizza bet with PeteyB? I forget the day… what temp do you each have??
I didn’t. I was just going to bring up the forecast on his post and maybe make a gentleman’s bet. 🙂
He had 71 (I think), and if I would have to do a single number for a forecast for that day (Wednesday) it is 44.
That was yesterday.
Today, I’d leave it alone, and I have a feeling he might drop his looking at current info.
My guess is yesterday he leaned into the European model (which I think is out to lunch) and I leaned into the GFS idea (which has been doing better of late), with my own anticipated error modifications.
Cool. Thank you.
I replied to one of his posts on FB under my WHW account with my thoughts. I’m curious to know if he still has the same idea or has shifted. We’ll see if he replies. He’s good about chatting weather on social media. It’s so easy to keep it civil. And Pete’s a really good guy. I have immense respect for him.
Maybe we will gain a degree or two of the ocean temperatures.
Hopefully we are not into a totally gloom and doom upcoming spring?
We seldom have a total one way or total the other way spring. Natural volatility is part of transition, and spring is definitely more volatile than autumn here. 🙂
Thanks.
Wordle 3. Went with some different letters on 2 and it paid off
Wow. Awesome
Wow!!! Nice job!
MA Drought Map for data as of March 3rd. At this time, there is some but not extreme concern about a drought in MA. A D2 drought level as seen on the map can take many months to a year of continued precipitation events to go away. About 6% of the state is at a D2 level.
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?MA
Like seeing those surface winds showing light S flow. Thats hopeful !!
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BOX&issuedby=BOX&product=RWR&format=CI&version=1
Mt Washington summit is 34F
Responding. We are up to 40. Let’s keep it going!!
Of course, all the big fallen trees are removed, but with the snow really receding, it’s revealing the strength of that blizzard.
Tons of smaller branches being exposed now, tons of pine needles, etc.
Spring cleanups are always necessary, but much more so after this winter.
Mother Nature does grooming of the landscape her own way, for sure. Sometimes it’s subtle, sometimes it’s violent, and sometimes it’s between those two.
Thanks TK
42 here….
39F. Snow … what’s left of it … melting away.
Interesting 0Z Euro for 3/18
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2026030700&fh=276
Will it still be there on the 12Z run? I say NO.
Thank you TK!
Wordle : 3
WOW!!! Very nice!!!
Awesome Sue!!!
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfct-imp&rh=2026030712&fh=105&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
12z GFS, Wednesday.
A simulation where a very shallow, but cool airmass, does indeed push southward enough to replace 70F and the warm sector with 40F, a raw NE and E wind and probably fog and drizzle.
Interesting to see which way it ends up.
A very warm airmass above, but one can see in those baggie isobars, the boundary layer is susceptible to a very, very different outcome. Much easier for cold, dense air to win at the surface.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2026030712&fh=105&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
To see those isobars in Maine southwestward into NH and further southwestward hinting at cool/chilly air able to ooze into southern New England.
Don’t worry. The cold is still being under-simulated. After tomorrow, the guidance will start to do better with it.
🙂 🙂
Thanks TK.
The GFS AI’s projection earlier this week of widespread mid 80’s this coming Wednesday is not looking too good.
Ya think? SAK and I had a good laugh behind the scenes when we saw that. We know better. All credit goes to our mentors – basically the same set of experienced forecasters we worked for (and with) for a long time at one particular company. THEY taught us, long before we had too many models to “help”, exactly what to look for.
I don’t see 80’s or 70’s but there could be one day in the 60’s. Maybe two, but I wouldn’t bet the family fortune on that one either. Being near the coast, I might see one day in the low 60’s.
Been out and about ….
The amount of potholes have grown significantly and some of them are very large and deep. Hazards.
I have noticed that as well. They should provide all cars sold in NE with a sophisticated Pot Hole Avoidance System!!!!!
I was joking around, but I guess the newest vehicles can be equipped with something:
AI Overview
Pothole avoidance systems
use AI-powered cameras, LiDAR, and sensors to detect road defects in real-time, enabling, or suggesting, immediate evasive steering or braking. Advanced systems, like on the Ford Fusion Sport, use continuous damping control to stiffen suspension and prevent wheels from dropping into holes. These technologies can reduce impact damage by 31% or more.
Key Components and Functionalities
Detection Technologies: Systems utilize cameras to scan the road, LIDAR for depth mapping, and AI algorithms (like YOLOv8) to identify, classify, and map potholes.
Active Suspension Adjustment: Systems can detect when a wheel falls into a hole and instantly adjust the suspension to prevent the wheel from falling too far, reducing damage to tires and suspension.
Driver Alerts and Mapping: Advanced systems provide audio/visual warnings for severe holes and map them to help drivers avoid damaged roads.
AI and Machine Learning: Deep Q-Networks (DQN) and other AI models are trained in simulators to automatically steer or brake around hazards, achieving high accuracy in real-world applications.
Proactive Maintenance: Vehicle-mounted sensors, as used by departments of transportation (e.g., in Ohio), can map potholes in real-time, allowing for faster, more cost-effective, and automated repairs.
Wow
There are so many potholes that the avoidance system would look like this:
https://ibb.co/bMbwp9Yg
lol
About the size of it, but I thought you were going to show something like this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=65I1AMRFdGo
As fully expected the snow storm depicted by the 0 euro for the 18th, is a bit later and Extremely Suppressed! 🙂 🙂 🙂
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2026030712&fh=288&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
Thank goodness.
An 18-24” non wind snow in January and a full fletched 25-30” blizzard in February.
I can’t do another one this season.
If one more shapes up and is headed our way before the cold season ends, I’ll jump in the car and head south. Done with those 🙂
I could probably stomach one more 3-6, 4-8 kind of event.
I’ve got one more blizzard in me (or two… :))
lol
Me as well, but it AIN’T GONNA HAPPEN!
https://featureassets.gocomics.com/assets/46ba0390f0bf013ebadd005056a9545d
he he he
Big smiles here
B’s up 2-1 in the 3rd
3-1 final … 12th straight at home!
Thanks, TK!
Thanks TK! Still feels like a lot of snow to melt here on South Coast. So gray and chilly. Spring feels a long way off and it would not surprise me to see this snow replaced. I am mentally ready to extend winter into early April.
Thanks, TK.
I always have more cold and snow in me, but I acknowledge others don’t feel the same way.
The sun has made an appearance here.
The temperature here is 43.5F. On the summit of Mt. Washington it’s 43.6F.
44 7 here , dp 40
I’LL take it.
Logan
Temp 45
dew point 41
Wi ND SW at 13.8 mph
One would think it would be a little warmer. But the wind is coming across a shit ton of snow and no sun isn’t helping.
It would have been a little warmer without a snow cover, but that’s why I forecast high temps ranging from 39 to 46 today, and not something like 45 to 52. 😉
This goes back to what I said earlier about listening to the mentors as a novice. 😀
my Dads favorite clock change one that allows more light after work. Enjoy it. I really dont want the day in which they try to force standard time on people for summer
It wouldn’t be forcing anything. That was what it was originally as. The now-outdated switch to DST is what was “different”. 🙂
If they choose one, it should be standard, and not daylight. We tried that in 1974. It was a massive failure, and it would be an even bigger one if they did it again.
Everyone here knows my opinion. 🙂
Tomorrow is my most saddest day of the year.