“As The Days Lengthen, The Cold Strengthens”

10:48AM

The old folklore quote used for the title is meant to apply to the middle of winter, the climatological peak of the cold days coming in January, after the shortest day of the year and in the weeks when the sunlight time is increasing. It was not intended to represent the weather in mid to late March, but we may find that it applies this particular year, because we are now in and will remain in a cold pattern for some time to come. And this cold will not be without additional winter storm threats, especially one coming up early in the week. Though by practice I don’t get too details about storms outside of 48 hours before onset, I will say that reliable guidance and my own meteorological thinking has me concerned about the impact of this event, which will almost certainly feature some front-end accumulating snow, may possibly deliver some icing to parts of the region mid storm, and may end with a burst of significant snow (the duration, location, and timing of which will be critical). More details to come on this potential winter storm.

In the mean time, a wave of low pressure passing south of southern New England will throw some clouds across the region during the day today but its precipitation will stay south of the region, possibly just skirting the South Coast with a touch of light snow. High pressure will move in for a bright but cold St. Patrick’s Day on Sunday, lingering into Monday just ahead of the advancing storm.

Behind whatever that storm brings us, the middle to end of next week look on the cold side with limited sun and a threat of some minor precipitation events.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Increasing clouds. Slight chance of a little light snow along the South Coast with no accumulation. Highs around 40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH becoming light variable later.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows upper 10s to middle 20s. Wind light variable.

SUNDAY – ST. PATRICK’S DAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

MONDAY: Sunny start, cloudy finish. Snow/mix developing at night. Low 19. High 38.

TUESDAY: Storm of rain/ice/snow (details to come but may be significant). Low 29. High 35.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 22. High 40.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 25. High 38.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 24. High 38.

568 thoughts on ““As The Days Lengthen, The Cold Strengthens””

  1. I think we can throw out the GFS. Lean more towards the Euro, while mixing in
    some NAM and then just monitor the others. 😀

    12Z Euro later should be most interesting.

    BTW, anyone have total qpf for the 0Z run. Looks decent at least. 😀

    1. Old Salty I don’t have the QPF but its showing about 6 inches of snow up there in the Boston area. I posted the link to that on the previous blog thanks to one of the contributers on wxedge.com He is leaning towards the EURO.
      Tuesday morning commute looks to be messy.

      1. JJ saw that. Thanks.
        Yes, another messing, miserable commute!

        What if this trends colder still??? YIKES!

  2. Report from the Fort.
    Current temp: 67
    High temp: 76
    Skies: Clear
    Wind: 6-10 mph from SSE
    Visibility: 10 miles
    Sunst: 7:36 pm

    1. my friends were there last week and are not happy to be home so I’m letting them know your reports………..maybe they won’t be my friends much longer 😉 but I’m having fun anyway 🙂

  3. The Euro is the model of choice on this. It’s been consistent with placement of certain features for several runs.

  4. Clearly BB is pretty bullish on snow totals. I am all in the euro camp and I think snow holds on longer into Boston. I could see 3-6 if not a 4-8 range when all said and 10-15 range from 495 west and north.

    1. Given that this gets underway Monday night, it will stick immediately. Once the ground is covered, it’s a done deal even during the day this time because we’ll have a very thick overcast and be in mid-storm during Tuesday daylight, along with surface temperatures not far above freezing, if above at all, in much of the area away from the immediate shore.

  5. 0z EURO coming in around 6 inches of snow for Boston. It seems pretty consistent. Lets see what the 12z run has to say.
    One of the people who comments on wxedge.com here in CT thinks the colder trend has leveled off. Will see what happens. I think before any rain comes into the picture the Tuesday morning commute is going to be a mess.

  6. Nephew had a great try out, looked good, 3 more tryouts and then hope he makes it, 39.5 degrees 🙂

    1. Canadian seems to project the most significant deepening of the low. More than the Euro model, correct? Positioning and strength will mean everything with this storm. Low needs to be east of CC (or cut across the Outer Cape) and strong to generate significant snow at the coast. I may be wrong about this, but storms that hug the coast, even in mid winter, tend to produce some front-end snow, but rain after that.

  7. 12Z Euro soon. 😀

    One thing that is becoming pretty clear, this system will blow up into a bomb.
    IT is just a question of How much rain, if any, falls during the middle of the storm.

    😀 😀 😀

  8. Rapid deepening will be an issue with the 2nd half of the storm. Think 12/9/2005 for an analog.

      1. That was a unique storm – one we don’t see quite like that very often. And I’m not saying this will be a carbon copy. But the setup is somewhat similar, especially in terms of what may happen with the rapid deepening and movement of the surface low.

        The back side comma heads of these things are usually good for a short-lived but intense burst of precip.

  9. I remember that storm well. The sun came out here in my part of CT as we were digging out and at the same time hurricane wind gusts on the Cape and heavy snowfall rates were occurring in eastern New England. I was watching WBZ online when that was happening and was amazed at how strong the winds were gusting and how fast the snow came down.

    1. The winds were nasty especially at the shore, but the most impressive thing to me was the snowfall rate and the lightning/thunder.

      By that night, you’d have expected high winds behind the departing bomb, but it was so tightly wound up, the winds were nearly calm here!

      1. I remember that one. It took me about 2 hours to get home, covering a distance of about 3 miles. Cares Stuck everywhere.
        Had to change course several times. I had a 5 speed manual transmission Mustang at the time. Miserable piece of crap in the Snow!! 😀

  10. I remember that storm well, we had about 4 inches in an hour! TK i am little concerned about eastern mass getting dry slotted since the low is passing over cap cod right? we are the closest to the slow so i am worried about us getting dry slotted

  11. Thank you everyone for the warm thoughts this morning – it helps to hear from dog and animal lovers.

    In regards to this storm, precip types aside – what does this serve up to the coastal communities?

    1. Captain, so sorry for your loss. We are new dog owners, and I can’t believe how quickly they have worked their way into our hearts and family. The unconditional love from our furry kids is unmatched. Doggy heaven must be a hell of a place!

  12. So looking at 850 temps below freezing for entire event and 2 m temps just above freezing. Colder run !!

    QPF for KBOS at 1.41

    1. WOW!!! Thanks Hadi!!

      Not only is it getting colder, but QPF is going up!!

      BTW, NWS was indicating ratios of 10:1 during Monday night to Tuesday AM and 8:1 during Tuesday. It may be a little higher like 12:1 at night and 10:1 day.

      😀

  13. Pattern this winter has been to develop these storms near the Delmarva. I’m looking for that to continue.

    Heavy snow will be in play.

    And this won’t be the last.

  14. Big mixing events are more common in early winter. I Don’t see that here. We’re at that point in the season it’s either rain or snow.

  15. Well, lets see if the precip measurement on the next storm at Logan can be a little better…..

    I still cant believe .36 inches of melted precip fell on the last storm, when they received 10+ inches of snow. No way, no how.

  16. I am wondering if the latest EURO is showing 6 inches for my part of CT. If anyone has that link and can post it I would appreciate it.

  17. @KANE… A dry slot may not be much of an issue and much of the snow accumulation may come before (front end precip.) and after (comma head back lash) any dry slot.

  18. The Euro, though it has wavered in a few details, has been pretty consistent overall in having a “significant” storm threat for March 19-20 since March 10.

    Somebody gets double digit snow in this thing.

    1. Funny, I just told my wife there’s not going to be school here Tuesday and I told her 12″+

    2. Keep it north and away from Boston and south shore. I know many don’t agree but snow storms will be getting harder to get with each passing day. Yes I know it can snow. I’m hoping for rain.

      1. Climate is not a smooth line. They get harder to get over time, but not with each day. It would have been hard to get a snowstorm with that brief warm-up we had, but now the pattern supports one. These conditions will go back and forth right into April.

        1. How about those 2m temps on/near the 25th in the low 40’s all the way to the gulf coast…..brrrrrrrrr……..

  19. Captain sorry about your dog. Unfortunately I lost a dog a few years ago tragically. She got under the car and nobody knew she was there, I ran her over and we had to put her down. 16 yr old poodle. I felt horrible but there was no way of me knowing. We now have another poodle and a goldendoodle. We got the poodle two days after she died, we had to as it was Christmas time. It did help. We had the poodle cremated. When your ready check out loughlin kennel in Oxford ma.

    1. I will thank you John, we are definitely getting another dog at some point. I know it did not ease your grief, but I am glad you had 16 years with your dog.

      1. The goldendoodle has a personality like I have never seen. Great family dog and a loyal companion. There known to be working dogs as well. Have seen a few at the hospital.

    1. Hadi what accu pro say for Warwick ri to middleboro to Plymouth? I’ve got 100 houses being done Mon,Tue and Wed, and looking at models these areas will experience mainly rain, is that what accu pro is saying as well??

      1. Well, the 0z Euro showed 6″+ for much of interior CT and the 12z was even colder so don’t agree with that at all. Even the GFS which is the warm outlier, had 3″ up front.

    1. Charlie am in your neck of the woods at the distinctively Sweden store in plainville. No wonder you question the roads. Any reason you can’t take a left off of 1 onto 152. There are 16 traffic lights hung across the rd.

            1. We have hosted au pairs from Sweden over the years and usually send them to Ikea for anything they may need from home. What does the store in Plainville carry?

              1. It’s limited captain but a good assortment of what they have. Vera Bradley. But the tomte and Nissen and the dala – an assortment of very nice candelabra not much food. We did get the mustard as we love the Swedish mustard and can’t find anything similar here. We haven’t tried it yet. I believe they have a web site

  20. It’s typical for it to snow north of Boston and rain south of Boston in mid March,,, will see what happens

    1. This one is not going to quite follow that loose rule. The atmosphere doesn’t care too much about where Boston is. 🙂

      1. Just think about it this is a weather blog too, can u imagine out on streets, people will actually get p o if it does happen, I’m still suspect for down here but will see, I’ve seen it snow in Milford 6 inches and here a slushy coating that’s gone that day so will see, that was like 5 yrs ago

        1. For me the weather is the weather. Enjoy. Only exception is when it causes devastation. Hard to enjoy that but still nothing we can do

  21. I gotta be honest wherever it snows unless it way up by retrac it will be gone maybe quicker than how long it takes to fall, I’m still suspect that we get enough accumulations here to cover roads or even significant accumulation even though it’s been cool in recent days, im talking about well south of Boston, future model runs will paint a clearer picture, thanks tk 🙂

  22. ok..Euro has 6″ to the canal. 8-12 boston and solid 12″ the rest of the state including the northern half of Ct. on say a Danbury, Hartford, Killingly line or so.

    1. I still see a changeover to Mix or sleet or perhaps even briefly
      Rain right in Boston. Even so, Boston should see something like 6-10 inches! 😀
      ALL snow N&W of the City.

      Again, according to the 12Z Euro. Still subject to change.

        1. Don’t agree. With low level cold at surface and 925 mb,
          IF any above freezing temps sneak in at around 850mb “could” spell Sleet. 😀

          I’ll have some SREF Probabilities soon. 😀

    1. You could be correct. That would do the trick. As it is, Euro takes it
      right over the Cape. With this deep cold in place, almost good enough. 😀

      1. If the storm were a more n/s orientation O.S., I might agree with a track over the cape or near the canal this time of year but this type of track should follow a little further south in the end.

        1. We shall see. IF the cold air hangs tough, it “could” force
          it right into that track. Have seen it before. 😀

  23. From what I can tell most of the precip falls from 1-2 am Tue am to Tue 3pm, gonna have to snow heavy, everything has to be perfect, again will c 🙂

  24. Charlie, ive seen u use the words well south of the city a few times today. Assuming u mean boston as the city, curious as to what areas u consider well south of the city?

    1. Well mainly Plymouth to middleboro as the season has begun and have 100 homes scheduled for 1st visits next week

  25. I don’t have a forecast yet, when I do I usually give it 48hrs out so tommorrow, I’m a little skittish, I think there’s a high chance of 6+ for areas north and west of 495, everything else is still up in the air IMHO 🙂

  26. Thanks, TK.

    I am wondering – it looks like there won’t be any warm weather for awhile – are we going to go from cold weather into very warm/hot weather? I hate that – I prefer a gradual warm-up or cool-down. But we have no say in that matter. It is chilly today – actually seemed to get colder when sun came out.

      1. Sometimes here in Sudbury it feels like I’m living in the North Country! Actually, I have been to Maine, and the 3 1/2 yrs. we have lived here there are parts of Sudbury that remind me of central Maine.

    1. I think we stay cooler than normal well into April. Not sure if we jump right to a warm/hot pattern or not yet… But it has happened many times in the past.

      1. I don’t remember when but I do remember some years when it was like that – instant summer!

    2. Hi rainshine. How’s your mom and husband? I am being stubborn and have a couple of windows open. My poor family 😉

      1. My mother was in rehab – Bethany, in Framingham for awhile. That is really a nice place and they took good care of her. She came home yesterday and is doing ok. They found some probably benign cysts on her liver, but she opted for no biopsies. Her choice and she feels at her age, 86, would rather not have any surgeries unless necessary. My husband went to the dr. and on Mon. he is having a procedure (not a major procedure; just uncomfortable) which should give some answers. Thank you for asking!

        It really felt chilly to me today – I guess it’s more dampness.

        1. Hi rainshine. I’ve heard good things about Bethany. Glad she is improved. Ill keep your husband in my thoughts. Please let us know if you can.

  27. Forecasting for me has nothing to do with whether people want snow or don’t, want rain or don’t, want hot weather or don’t, etc. .. I forecast the weather. Just as the atmosphere doesn’t care where Boston is in regards to rain/snow lines, it also doesn’t care what our preferences are. 🙂 My aim is to try to predict what is going to happen as accurately as possible, whether it’s wanted or not. 😀

    1. Makes sense given that’s based on 10:1. I think this one will be a little more like 6:1, thick snow, not soaking wet but dense. So chop those totals not quite in half and there’s my early snow forecast. 😉

      1. I agree those totals need to be tempered a bit, but you don’t think the ratios will be higher than 6:1, at least to start, with a good deal of this precip occuring during dark?

        1. Not everywhere and the ratios will also change during the storm. It may very well start out something like 10:1 inland, 7:1 coast, drop to 7:1 inland 6:1 coast later, and then taking into account any flips to sleet/ice/rain that take place, then we’ll see how cold it is with the back end stuff. There is no clear cut ratio here for the entire event. My 6:1 was a ballpark figure and example of reasoning for adjustment of the Euro’s snowmap.

  28. Today’s dewpoints are in the single digits to low teens and looking at some of the point forecasts, are actually expected to lower more tonight, into tomorrow.

    Now, while things may moisten up quickly fairly close to the coast, it wont be too far inland that the temps are going to crash once the precip kicks in Monday night. If inland tomorrow night is 38F with a dewpoint of 12F, then the wet bulb temp will probably drop to 25F.

    Watch out just west and north of Boston and if the wind holds North in Boston, there too.

      1. We’re ok to this point. Communication has been that we’ll go to Monday June 24th, but not much more after that. I agree with this as the buildings get too hot.

        I think in Marshfield, we may need a delay for a couple front end inches of snow, but I think we’ll transition to cold rain and get Tuesday in.

        I hope. But, if this thing bombs further southeast, then we could get big snow soon.

        I just want to go camping, especially now that it stays light so late into the evening. 🙂 🙂

    1. sure, I could see that O.S.

      I guess what I’m trying to say is that compared to a December-type setup where a larger area of mid-level warming exists because of the warmer ocean and cold surface temps, this won’t be as much of a problem area-wide. More of a distinct R/S line situation rather than say a 50 mile wide area of “mixing”

      1. I would think the rapid deepening of the low should help cool off any mid levels that may briefly warm above 0C.

      2. Sure. Agree with that. I was simply suggesting that if some
        warmth creeped in at 4-6 thousand feet, then the conditions
        would support a period of sleet.

        In addition to that, re: Rain vs Snow, in fact it would be the mid-level warmth that would cause the changeover and not
        BL issues, no?

        😀

        1. I’m thinking B.L. temps would be the problem O.S. not so much a general mid-level per my December premise as mentioned. 925mb temps are modeled to be 0c near Boston so problems would be from surface to 925mb or from the ground to about what, 2500 ft. or so. (lower levels which is why I’m not buying sleet nearer coast)

          1. Are you sure you’re not arod?

            In looking at the charts, it looks like mid-level warmth is what will cause any change to mix or rain. It also depends upon the wind direction.
            If that coastal does it’s thing, the wind will be
            NE to N and boundary layer will not be the issue.

            IF coastal hugs too much and wind is more
            ENE to E, well then of course BL would be an issue. We’ll have to see how it plays out. 😀

            1. LOL –

              I just don’t see changeover as of right now coming from the mid-levels, rather, low levels.

              I still think Boston sees mostly snow.

              (my wife and I just ripped through the first two seasons of the Walking Dead so I’m a little……”heady”….. 🙂

  29. NWS Taunton take on the storm. Interesting to note that the Euro ensembles form the secondary low even further SW than the operational!

    PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF WITH ONSET OF PRECIP GIVEN THE HIGH
    AMPLITUDE BLOCK PATTERN. IN ADDITION…00Z ECENS SUPPORTS THIS
    WITH ITS SECONDARY LOW FARTHER TO THE SW THAN ITS OPERATIONAL
    COUNTERPART. SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SW TO NE LATE
    MON NGT WITH PRECIP INTENSITY INCREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK. COLUMN
    COLD ENOUGH JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE EXCEPT CAPE COD AND ISLANDS FOR
    SNOW AS PTYPE.

    BY TUE STRONG JET DYNAMICS/TROUGH BECOMING NEG TILTED ALONG WITH
    A SHORT HALF WAVELENGTH BETWEEN TROF-RIDGE AXIS SUGGEST STRONG
    FORCING FOR ASCENT. HENCE HEAVY QPF POTENTIAL. GOOD MODEL
    AGREEMENT ON A COASTAL HUGGER WITH LOW PRES TRACKING ALONG THE
    COASTLINE. HOWEVER STILL TRICKY FORECAST HERE GIVEN PTYPE ISSUES
    AND STILL 60-72 HRS OUT. FORECAST WILL HINGE ON HOW STUBBORN COLD
    AIRMASS WILL BE GIVEN DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING. PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS
    ARE FOR SNOW TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY ACROSS SOUTH COASTAL MA AND RI
    GIVEN THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL WARM THE BLYR FAIRLY QUICKLY.
    HOWEVER NORTHWARD INTO THE HFD-PVD-BOS CORRIDOR SEVERAL INCHES OF
    SNOW ARE POSSIBLE TUE AM BEFORE A CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX AND
    POSSIBLY TO RAIN. THE GREATEST RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
    /6-12″/ APPEARS ALONG AND NW OF MA PIKE AND I-495 WHERE PTYPE MAY
    REMAIN ALL SNOW.

    CAN/T STRESS ENOUGH THAT THIS IS OUR PRELIMINARY THINKING AND
    THAT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY EXIST GIVEN THERE ARE PTYPE ISSUES
    /RAIN- SNOW LINE/ ALONG WITH THE INHERENT TIME FRAME…STILL
    60-72 HRS OUT.

    1. Now that was a mouth full! It seems like it is the Euro vs the rest of the world.

      I think the cold will hang tough. More white than wet. That is not to say there
      won’t be a period of mix or even rain in Boston, I still think at this point it is mostly a snow event. 😀

    2. I’ve been thinking that the low development is too far North based on how the winter has gone.

    1. He is really beginning to irritate me. I haven’t seen him call one of these
      complicated storms correctly! Not a single one! 😀

      1. I don’t really like anybody from the wbz weather team. Barry is ok but I think Harvey is a better forecaster.

  30. TK. Was thinking about that December storm from several years ago this morning, based on what we are seeing the models hinting at. That storm was amazing.

    Vicki, we go to Distinctively Sweeden quite often. My wife and daughter love Vera Bradley stuff! I hate that set up at the light on Rt. 1. It is very annoying. That all happened when Target and the rest of the shopping plaza on the right went in, as well as Lowes. They are talking that they will have to put another light at the racetrack if they are awarded the slot parlor license.

    1. I don’t see an exact repeat, but several things line it up as a good analog storm.

      1. I remember the pouring rain one minute and then the thunder and lightning the next with 4 inch per hour snowfalls.

    2. North we have trouble finding anything Swedish here. We liked the store a lot. We had a horrible time trying to figure how to get into the lot though.

  31. There will be a rain snow line, my best early guess is snow for 3-6 hrs in Boston to start changing to rain, again still early but leaning 30-40% snow then the remaining precip in rain, will c

    1. I think I agree with the rain/snow line, unless the euro co tinies its current trend.

      I do not agree with the 30-40percent. At least not Boston north.

  32. This is sorta outa left field but made me think of it from tk comparisons, anyways for me the worst snowstorm or blizzard I’ve ever experienced with damage was April 1996, I will never forget that storm bc it’s April no one thinks of snow in April so most were blind sided with 1-2 ft of snow. April Fools Blizzard geez I was 23 yrs old ha 🙂

  33. Channel 7 saying storm to start around midnight and be all rain for the coast well before Tuesdays commute around 3am to rain. Different north. At first everyone sees snow even probably the cape. I like this forecast. Although Disney is coming faster than we want so the overtime would be welcomed.

    1. As of right this min I think it may be slightly aggressive, move everything 15-30 miles north and west, BUT also most of the snow that falls from just south of Boston to Providence south and east gets washed away with about a quarter to half inch of rain late Tue morning, I still think most of the heavier precip falls during daylight, intensity could be an issue with accumulations esp on any pavement areas IMHO, again at this point 🙂

    1. Hadi,

      I agree. We shall see.

      Channel 7 and rain again. Is that Pete up to his old tricks? Or someone else?

  34. I saw one of the many Facebook outlets predicting up to 40 inches in Maine. 😉

    Heading out. Check in from my secret location in the mountains on the other side of the city later this evening. 🙂

  35. My husband is watching the PGA tournament in the other room and I can hear the peepers. It sounds like spring

    1. Much warmer down in Tampa where that PGA tour event is taking place. It should be an exciting finish tomorrow
      with a very tight leaderboard.

      1. 50 mph east winds at shore! Man, they can’t get a break this winter. Thinking some new land surveying will be taking place this summer.

        1. 50 mph East wind would certainly bring BL issues into play. I still think the winds will be more NE. We’ll see soon enough. 😀

      1. They all have to be on pins and needles since they all under forecast the last storm. Tough job

  36. Now I have heard it all. 😀 😀 😀 😀

    From the NWS, Upton NY: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
    742 PM EDT SAT MAR 16 2013

    .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/…
    THE GFS AND CMC ARE THE BEST DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL MODELS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

    Um, Excuse me. What happened to the Euro? are they treating the Euro like an outlier here?? What gives here?????????????????????

  37. I actually think channel 7 may be right in there snow accumulations, the storm is coming into the nams timeframe, could tell the story a little better

  38. Nope Charlie not gonna happen. You can wish it away all you want 🙂

    That must be a joke from Albany. Euro is as far superior.

  39. So channel 5 has 3-6 for Boston and hadi and Oldsalty I think see that as a possibility. Well seeing how all three of them nailed the last storm and Harvey did nail it, how can you go against that.

    1. John 5 has their predictions high at first for the last storm but lowered them considerably in the end. No one nailed it that I saw

      1. I disagree. Even Oldsalty was surprised when I was going against Harvey as he was going high and I thought rain. Even that night when we were talking dry slots he was uping his totals. He stayed the course.

        1. Right As I said he was high to start. That’s when u were going against him. Then he lowered amounts. 5 was def higher than the other two until the end. Then joined them. Look back thru the posts. I said the same thing the whole time.

            1. Here you go John. Copied from prior to storm

              Vicki says:
              March 5, 2013 at 8:11 PM
              5 has consistently been higher than 4 and 7 but they have come down in their numbers.

                1. Didn’t you say the other stations came down. I believe that’s what you said. He stayed the course all week. He is a good meteorologist.

              1. Ok. But just don’t see it that way. My 7:32 post to Arod asking why Harvey had 10+ for the city. Both of us did not agree. I think the city got 13 or 14 inches. How is that not nailing it. It was not even sticking at that time in Boston. But it does not matter. Take care.

  40. Tommorrow is the 1st day that there’s more daylight than nighttime, sunrise tommorrow is 6:53am and sunset is at 6:55pm

  41. From BB

    @BarryWBZ: On Tuesday, the potential exists for 1-3″ snow by 8am up to 4-8″ by 2pm then 8-12″ by 8pm near/outside the I-95 corridor from Prov to Boston

    1. Matt if I’m reading that right you have rain in Boston by Tuesday morning, I agree and that’s what seven is saying as well. Channel five 3-6 for Boston I think that sounds high but I thought that with last storm and was wrong.

      1. john i would not put out snow amounts until monday. . one of my freinds asked me what i thought would fall in the other storm. and i said not that much and then looked what happened.

      1. thanks vicki and yes your reading it correct john and yes vicki i do beleive some ice problems are likly in the purple shaded area expecially the areas between the mass pike points north and south of rt2.

    1. We are getting into the nams hot zone. I’d be nervous if it didn’t start to come more in line, or at least give some positive signals.

      1. Probably more because it is not supported by the most consistent model.

        But you like it because its supporting your theory, right?

      2. The real reason is because it’s not a good run and not a great model. It misses several key factors in storm development, especially from 48 hours out. Here it’s again being inconsistent. The Euro has been consistent with positioning and temperatures at 850, for example.

        The NAM is not lining up the parameters that show the rapid deepening of that low, so therefore it will not depict the deepening. Because of that, it isn’t going to know to wrap the cold temperatures just to the north into the circulation.

        Isallobaric flow develops in a situation like this (rapid deepening of a tightly wrapped low center), and that won’t be shown by a model that is missing the deepening. Isallobaric flow is when the wind blows more perpendicular than parallel to isobars. This creates tremendous lift, heavy precip, and big time cooling. This may be an important factor in the final stages of the storm.

        More on this later…

        1. Thanks for the lesson TK. Really COOL stuff. I was seeing that, but had No Idea what the technical explanation was for it. Many thanks again.

          At least the CMC and the UKMET show the deepening, albeit not it the same position as the Euro. The latest
          GFS hints that it might be catching on.

          WSWs should be up tomorrow as it looks like Taunton is
          clued into the potential, more so than some of our broadcast Mets.

          Tk, you are SOOO much better than most of these jokers.

  42. None of the local mets in CT seem to be buying the Euro on this one either. Both the FOX and CBS affliliates here are calling for a slushy inch or two before a change to mix and rain overnight Monday for much of the State.

    It is pretty much the Euro vs the world right now. Something’s gotta give by tomorrow PM.

  43. Still unanswered questions but definatly seeing the colder trend coming to a halt, we will know more tommorrow, goodnight 🙂

    1. I wouldn’t base that on poorly-performing models.

      The colder trend may very well not be done yet.

      1. 😀

        Watched channel 7 tonight. I don’t know who that guy is (Chris?), but he’s sticking to 1-3 in Boston then rain???? What is he looking at? I couldn’t stomach watching Wankum on 5 and for some reason 4 was delayed.

        btw, these guys seem awfully cocky, like they have never been wrong in their lives. Can’t stand that!

        1. I’m not a big fan of it either. There’s plenty of uncertainty with this upcoming situation. If that back-end snow blitz doesn’t happen, we may end up with half the snow we’d have otherwise gotten. Remains to be seen how that and any mid-storm mixing/changing sets up.

  44. From NWS:

    SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES…

    VERY ANOMALOUS UPPER AIR PATTERN UNFOLDING THIS PERIOD WITH THE
    AO PROJECTED TO BECOME HIGHLY NEGATIVE AND POSSIBLY ATTAINING
    UNPRECEDENTED VALUES. THIS TRANSLATES TO AN ACTIVE POLAR JET AND
    PLUNGING SOUTHWARD/EQUATORWARD ACROSS THE CONUS.

    …THE MORE ROBUST ECMWF SOLUTION FITS THE SYNOPTIC SETTING.

    Hmm

    Here we have one office saying the GFS and CMC are handling the situation best and another office saying the Euro is handling it best.

    Actually, so far for this storm, Taunton has been pretty much right on target.
    I think they DID listen to TK, who set them straight. 😀 😀 😀

    1. I have NO clue what Upton was talking about. The paragraph that started out about the GFS was so hard to follow it looked like it was written by a 10 year old (no knock against kids, it just didn’t make any sense).

  45. Well 00z looks significantly warmer for Boston and Worcester …hmmmm

    And John I was saying the nam was incorrect based on weak pressure it was depicting. I am not as eloquent as TK explaining weather but he sums it well. I do not wishcast based on what model says snow.

  46. NWS confidant of all snow outside 495 but also seem very confidant of mostly rain inside 95 after a few inches. We shall see wont we.

    1. Indeed !

      Doesnt mean though that a good dump of snow wont still fall, as that moisture will be running into a chilly, very dry airmass.

  47. Me too retrac but it will change again. Look at the cold tonight, not going to be easy to scour out.

    1. Yup – agree. I’m sticking to my guns that the center won’t cross over land.

      B.T.W.

      Did you see what the Euro has at the end of the run. With all this cold and some moisture percolating down south a storm like that would totally not surprise me. I just think this winter will close with a bang. March will go out like a lion.

        1. 🙂 The egg hunts always seem to be very chilly anyway, so I could see some fun in watching the kids have to find them in snow.

      1. Decent snowfall, but would really like to see the 8-12″ move a little closer to Brighton 🙂

  48. I’ll guess …..

    Logan : 4-5 inches, Marshfield 2-3 inches with both these locations changing to rain before ending.

    128, N and W …… 6-8 inches and southern/central NH and ME 9-12 inches, except extremely coastal NH and Maine, with 5-8 inches.

    Happy St. Patrick’s Day to all !!

  49. It will interesting to see if the NWS puts a WSW for Boston, if they do then you know they are not sure how fast the cold will get scoured out.

    1. This is an almost arctic high in retreat and eastern sections are the closest to it. So, I think that the cold air hangs in there just fine the first 1/2 of the event and thats why I think 4-5 at Logan.

  50. Tom way underdone in central Maine. The rest seems plausible eventhough a little low. Central Maine gets into 16-20 inches.

    1. LOL, I 100% believe you on central ME, after my Dec forecasting of Augusta, ME, never to predict for that area again. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  51. Happy St Patricks day. Looks like another storm is on the way. Can’t help but be excited. This one doesn’t seem to have the coastal destruction involved. Yay

      1. That’s for sure Tom. Have a fun day!

        We did hear from the people we were to rent from and the courts ordered the squatters out of their house thank heavens. But you were right. With Evacs and damage it was not a good month to be there.

        1. Justice and common reason prevail !

          Is the house available in April ? It can be nice down here in April ……….. well mixed in with cloudy, foggy, drizzly 42F days too. 🙂

          1. The owners said the squatters have done a lot of damage along with the storms. It’s available in may but I can’t take the time from work I would want to. We are hoping next fall

  52. I’m looking at a hemispheric surface map on Unisys and there’s some interesting stuff.

    I see a couple of 43F’s on the western shore in Greenland and relatively speaking, some of that is being entrained into extreme Northern Canada where its near 0F, as opposed to central Canada, which is -15F to -25F below zero.

    Thats it !!! In this very blocky pattern, our eventual mildness will come………from the north. I’ve got to stop looking south. 🙂

    1. To your last comment Tom, I remember a winter/Spring within the last ten years that happened that way.

  53. Mets here in CT only calling for a 2-4 inch snowfall which is different than the map that was posted from Barry which shows the 4-8 inch amount from Boston all the way to my part of the state.
    One thing looks for sure its going to be a messy morning commute. I am thinking closer to that 4 inch mark for areas in and around the Boston area. Areas there up in elevation could do very well with this storm and that is where I feel warning criteria could be met. Will see how it all plays out.

  54. I think mets ate underestimating the cold and dynamic cooling. Waiting to see 12z euro before jumping on big mix or mostly snow.

  55. Back from vacation…no snow left on the ground, but more to come.

    Weather is a passion, a job, but not my life, so when I am away I don’t look at much weather data, so need to catch up, before forecasts need to be generated for tomorrow morning. Perhaps the lack of previous data to cloud my thinking will allow me greater clarity? I do know March storms in SNE are almost always difficult to forecast with assured definition.

    Enjoyed Hilton Head and Savannah a great deal. Sunshine, food, drink, golf, great friends.

    1. Spent a couple of weeks down there this summer between H.H., Savannah and Tybee Island.

      I could live there. (if it snowed!)

    2. Welcome back! Looking forward to your thoughts.

      I am still quite uncertain about a whole lot other than there’s gonna be a storm around. 🙂

      I am pretty sure about the front-end snow.
      I am somewhat unsure about the mid storm mix/change.
      I am very unsure about the end-of-storm snow blitz possibility.

  56. Geez if this storm hits Maine like it saying on models there could be snow on the ground going into mid April up there!! A brisk morning here but sunny along with high clouds, temp is 33.1 degrees, have a good day everyone 🙂

    1. Hence the continued reason for my very low confidence on that back end snow potential.

      That said, I want to see the 12z Euro to see if it’s a genuine trend on that model or a one-run anomaly. So I won’t be changing much in the way of any ideas until I’ve seen the 12z suite.

  57. what a wonderful st patricks day . sunny skies 😀 hope everyone has a good st patricks day.

    this storm im not even sure i should have posted the precipitation map yet. i still can not believe my eyes when the news stations are posting snow maps 3 to 4 days before hand.

    1. Matt,
      Not very responsible imo, however, they must be under tremendous pressure
      from station management.

  58. Report from the Fort.
    Current temp: 63
    Today’s high: 81
    Skies: PC
    Wind: 3-6 mph from the east
    Visibility: 10miles
    Sunset: 7:37 pm

    1. A decent adjustment based probably on 00z Euro. Still, too many people will look at this map, take it as the final call, AND pay attention to the top number on the range one higher than they are in. So, people in Boston (in the 2-4 forecast band) will somehow decide they are supposed to get 8 inches of snow.

        1. Oh absolutely. My comment was just based on the #’s on that map. People always take early maps as final calls.

          I still have a couple people out there that I talk to on FB that get frustrated when the forecast 5 days out doesn’t verify, as if they have ignored all the updates since. To me, that’s nothing more than ignorance and I have no sympathy for their self-induced woe. 😉

  59. This is a sticky situation.

    I want to see ALL of the 12Z runs, but right now it looks like a slug of snow, then
    a transition to some rain and back to at least some snow.

    Boston gets something like 6 or 7 inches. 😀

      1. My neighbor across the street had his summer lights on his 2nd floor deck and was out there grilling last night.

        Same neighbor grilled in a snowstorm 2 years ago.

        Last year they spent much of the year living elsewhere because a huge tree fell on their house on February 25 in a big wind storm that afternoon and damaged the roof and other parts of the house.

        1. We grill all year. We have Been known to stand on snow so deep we have to bend down to reach the grill. If husband grills, I sit on deck so he has company

    1. never to cold for a cook out. we decided to cook steaks on the grill durring the blizzard .. hint it was my brothers birthday

  60. Well I’m on board for some snow even down here I just think there r so many unanswered questions it feels like a week ago with no confidence, I feel confident roads will not get bad unless u go well north and west again very skittish, have a good day everyone

    1. The Euro is cold, cold ,cold and has quite a storm at the end of the month O.S. if you haven’t seen it.

      1. Yes, I saw that. Want to get through this one first, besides it’s
        so far out, it could easily disappear.

        However, Mother Nature “may” have saved the best for LAST. 😀

        1. …….if its the last. I think mom is having a good ole time

          But if you think about it….the snow has been all in just three storms. All followed by temps warm enough to melt it…..especially the last two. And other than dec 29 the winter was warm.

          That’s if people are complaining about snow. Coastal destruction is a whole other story. They have every right to complain.

  61. when i was walking down into the marsh. blue jays, cardinals and the american red wing blackbird. Its only the males right now as they claim territories and build nests males come up in march/early april. females come up in april and may. so it is a large sign of spring

  62. The last couple of storms have been much stronger than models have predicted. I will Guarantee this is stronger when it begins moving up the coast. My preliminary numbers are 1-3 over cape & islands, 3-6 south shore and 6-12 Boston points north and west with 12+ MA/NH border and Worcester. Let’s see if I’m even close.

  63. I gotta say and I’m sure I’ve said this before but out in sunshine now and it doesn’t feel like 40 degrees out with that strong sun, for sure 40 degrees in mid March is much different than 40 degrees in mid Jan, I guess it’s sorta obvious but it really ain’t that bad outside at all 🙂

    1. I always notice that too and this morning was no different. I was outside around 9AM and I know it’s quite cold, temp-wise, but the sun sure makes it feel nice. The wind was still light at that point but is kicking up now, so it feels a bit more chilly now as compared to earlier.

      1. tood a small hike in the marsh this morning was not bad at all. so many birds are now back.

  64. This is not Boston’s storm, only going 2-5″ which may be too generous as I expect a full changeover to rain before noon on Tuesday. Meanwhile up at my college, looking at 6-12″.

    1. Nice to hear from you Scott.
      So that’s what they’re teaching you these days?

      I think you may end up being surprised. We shall see. 😀

  65. Level 1 snow event for areas near and at the coast. ( Snowfall 4 inches and under)
    Level 2 snow event for the interior and especially up in elvelation ( Snowfall in the 5-10 inch range) Its the elevated areas that have the best shot at reaching warning criteria. I expected winter weather alerts to be posted later today or early tomorrow.

  66. Once again I will say I feel the cold will be shockingly tough to scour out. Lets sit back and watch. Scott you will end up with decent snows but again IMHO way too low on the 2-5. Outside of 495 no question all snow inside we shall see

    1. Tk, many thanks. Keep those coming.

      I really like this as it verifies my 6 or 7 inches for Boston. 😀

  67. I think the models are way underestimating the cold air around. This is very uncommon for March.

    1. Hadi,
      I agree. If it retreats and doesn’t put up as good a fight as we expect, then
      all bets are off and it will be like 1-3 inches and rain. 😀

        1. I see some signs that we could be in for it. 😀
          Somewhat similar to last time. Not the same set up, but
          you know what I mean. 😀

    1. UKMET 850mb Chart at 48 hours:
      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=TT850&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=TT850&hh2=060&fixhh=1&hh=048
      at 60 hours:
      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=TT850&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=TT850&hh2=048&fixhh=1&hh=060

      There is some really conflicting info on how much mid-level warming gets into
      the area.

      There “could” be a BIG surprise brewing here.

      Absolutely DYING to see the 12Z Euro. 😀

  68. Lyndon State college will get shadowed on the front end, but a second batch will come through Tuesday night as the low moves northward, producing significant snowfall without the shadowing.
    In regards to Southern New England, that main upper level low will be over the great lakes, which will help scour out cold air, especially near the coast. Also there isn’t a very long open window for accumulating snow.

  69. I know its trending warmer but I would not rule out a surprise with this storm. I don’t think it happens but as we saw with the storm earlier in the month anything is possible.

  70. No model gets a storm “perfect”, even the “almighty Euro”. There are always some nearly unforecastable details that will impact the final outcome of a storm of any type (many times too small to be noticed, but there nonetheless).

    Do you remember the storm that surprised just above everybody on March 8? Even the people who were in Camp Snow were surprised by how intense the storm got at the end and how much snow fell in some places. I think the very low dewpoints that set in just before the storm’s arrival may have played a roll in that.

    This particular storm upcoming may also work in some ways off of a similar mechanism, though it is nothing like that storm in terms of its location, size, and overall movement. But we will have something generating significant precip and coming into some very cold air and some very low dewpoints. That cold front just went by this afternoon and it’s gotten quite gusty and cold and the air is extremely dry. With arctic high pressure to the north through Monday, the cold isn’t going anywhere, and even if it starts to warm at mid levels enough to flip precip. from snow to something other than snow, there may still be a whole lot of cold air trapped, probably thick enough for considerable sleet in at least parts of SNE.

    1. Wow, so much for my debate with O.S. on “not much sleet”.

      you might have settled this early TK. We’ll see if it verifies, then I’ll mail O.S. a beer!

  71. Yes TK, I agree that it got suddenly blustery and chilly this afternoon. I was outside just after 11:00 am and it was quite chilly even then. I have noticed the past few days including today that the air feels similarly cold like Monday April 5, 1982 just before the snowstorm of April 6-7, 1982 which IIRC produced 12″+ in Boston (13″?).

    I also have the feeling that the mets who are forecasting minimal amounts of snow for Boston are going to be in for a surprise once again like last time…Agree TK? 😉

    1. At this point, yes I agree.

      2 slightly milder Euro runs are not to be completely tossed out but they also do not mean this is going “warm”.

  72. I’m thinking it starts around 11ish Mon night but doesn’t really get going until 5 or 6am and then we got the whole daylight issues idk I don’t see all that much if any accumulation on roads or many pavement areas in Boston, this could really go one way or another but my thinking is the cape and south coast under an inch, 1-3 inches Boston to Providence, 2-4 north and west of Boston to Providence, and 3-6 along 495 with some icing, I think most of the snow that falls in Boston to Providence gets washed away, inland locations north and west of around 495 will be a different story, hope all is well 🙂

  73. Well, well, well. Looks like a good 3-6+ even for Boston as I alluded to a few days ago. The models are underplaying how cold the airmass really is and therefore we are still on track for a late season winter storm. There may be yet another big one behind this one so I may not be going anywhere any time soon;) Thought you could get rid of me? Not so fast! LOL.

  74. % probability of warning criteria
    areas north of rt 2. 80% chance of winter storm warning criteria
    areas between mass pike up to rt 2 and outside of 495 60%
    areas north and west of boston inside of 495 50%
    areas south and east of boston sharp cut off of chance 50% closer to boston to no chance southshore cape and islands.
    how far the rain line(mix) makes it. i think all the way up to rt 2 mixing will occur but the rain line will reach 495 and some where up to the mass pike.

  75. Fwiw…today’s CPC outlook still calls for below normal temps for most of the CONUS and well below normal temps for the deep south of all places and with normal precip snow events are very much still in the picture but perhaps may end up going south of us (similar to yesterday’s) in the longer term. I do believe one final significant snow event after the midweek one by months end. We will see as always.

    I do predict no more snow events for April but unsure about significant warmth per se. Based on snow stats for Boston, there has never been a snowy March and April in the same season. Either one month or the other has significant snow.

    1. Remember, we musn’t take the NAM lightly as we near. Remember the NAM/Euro recipe for the last storm…

        1. yeah, I’ve learned over the years to errr on the side of the higher end of the range out here except in strong WAA events when nobody is safe.

    1. A NE or (even better) NNE wind will do nicely for snow in Boston with no problem…like last time. Water temps not much of an issue. 🙂

  76. Hadi, you were on target on your prediction earlier that Boston would be included in the WSW. Excellent! 😀

  77. I hope this thing fizzles bigtime. Rooting for warm air and rain. Snow lover or not winter had its time and now its time for it to high tail and get out of here.

    1. Matt, didnt you say u go to umass lowell? We had spring. Reak thia week not next week? Lol am just confused

      1. old salty the reason being. I am one seeing a warm up in the models.
        two i am seeing the heiviest precipitation falling durring the day.
        3 storm might track right over the cape and islands.
        rain line makes it up to 495 by 12 to 1pm

        1. Keep it up there that’s all I ask, I feel good about more of a rain event in Plymouth to Marlboro, that’s all I ask 🙂 Wed through Fri alotta work down there

  78. Snow totals for Boston this morning from the local TV stations:

    Ch. 7 = 1-3″
    Ch. 4 = 2-4″
    Ch. 5 = 3-6″

    I don’t know who the met was, but interesting that Ch. 5 was on target by what NWS thinking at this time. It will be interesting for the new thinking on the evening newscasts. 🙂

      1. The 1-3 inches is a colossal joke and a total and complete disservice to the Public. It’s downright Criminal.

        1. I’m wondering what the powers to be have decreed at 7. They were unusually conservative last storm too

  79. Phew it appears I’m in the clear down here, no wsw’s thankfully for north attleboro and none down in Plymouth to middleboro, that’s all I asked for, will see what happens 🙂

      1. This guy is out there, but I’ll say one thing.
        He’s Not afraid to think “outside the box”. 😀

    1. A close call between an inch or 2 and 8 inches, definatly looks good in south eastern mass 🙂

    1. Usually do. Still have 12″ or so on the ground.

      By the looks of the Euro – I see how we maintain snowcover out here easily right into April.

        1. Is retrac even considered our area? I believe he’s well west of 495 in northern Worcester cty

  80. Nam shows a slug of snow but still changes it to rain, the nams says that slug comes over us during Tue am say between 8-noon, will see

    1. Charlie, because the 850MB oC line comes over us, doesn’t mean it changes
      to rain. SLEET is in the equation.

    2. 18Z GFS snow map:

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013031718&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084

      For those of you who think the snow won’t accumulate during the day…..
      IF it is snowing it WILL accumulate. It has been Cold for days. Ground is cold.
      The snow will be accumulating during the night setting a solid base to build on.
      And one last thing that TK reminded us of….there will be a very thick overcast,
      reducing any effects of the Sun. 😀 😀

      imo, 4 inches is Underdone for Boston. I am thinking 6-9 inches.
      WE shall see. Now awaiting the 0Z runs.

  81. What’s this?

    Wxrisk.com
    ‎** ALERT *** HEAVY SLEET AT CHESTER ..WOW… ** 449PM

    Would that be Chester, MD?
    Chester, VA??

    Got me. Looks like Chester, MD which is near Chesapeake Bay.

  82. Glad they posted the watch. Also important bc of impact to morning commute. BB still has Boston in the 4-8 inch range.

    1. You may be right, I want to see the 00z nam tonight not that that will make a huge difference but could tell us some details,

    2. If Boston is in the 3-6 zone Im going with the low end of that especially if it gets stalled. This is not like the last storm and the daytime snow will have a harder time accumulating. Only one commute will be affected around here. North of the city will be a different story.

  83. Hadi, You are right, it is cold, but when we say ” cold” in march, we are talking about highs in the mid to upper 30’s during the day, so even if it is cold during the storm, the temperature in boston will be in the upper 30’s, even tho thats “cold” its still not cold enough for accumulating snow, 38 39 won’t do much in boston IMHO

  84. Yeah retrac it is 2 different weather codes from Plymouth and middleboro and 1 different weather code obviously colder than here in north attleboro, it’s crazy u still have a foot on ground we or I have had bare grounds about 4 days after last storm, disappeared fast!! Hope all is well 🙂

  85. I still find it hard to believe that from Boston to Providence south and east will ever really accumulate on roads, heaviest precip happens from 2am-noon Tue, so as I can see some small accumulations in the city and along the coastal plain (east of 95) I just can’t buy that esp later Tue am when temps could be rising above freezing esp SE mass, fun stuff 🙂 495 belt looks more treacherous early Tue am and the bullseye will be Maine

    1. Charlie I agree. Different storm this time. Boston south small window of opportunity to accumulate. Night time sticks on everything but I don’t think it does the same say after 9am.

  86. the problem when you have a proffesor that likes to decide and make assighments on a saturday … and her email non existant

  87. Chris Lambert is now on board with the colder solution. He upped his Boston snow totals from 1-3″ this morning to now 2-4″ LOL. 😀

  88. I am thinking around 4 inches for the Boston area. If it stays snow longer than could get a little more than that.
    Tuesday morning commute a 10 on the UGH meter with different types of precipitation falling across SNE.

  89. Seems most mets thinking rain by the am commute. Still thinking night taccumulatiisthe best bet. The quicker the storm gets in here the more snow, if it stalls less snow. Stall all the way.

    1. Of everything I have seen (other than TK), Barry seems to have a real handle
      on this developing situation. Now let’s see how it verifies. 😀

    2. At least even Barry is saying a switch over in Boston to possibly heavy rain Tue am in Boston, I’ve been seeing a switch to rain too esp where I live south of city, this really looks like the brunt of this storm goes west of 495 and up north through Maine unlike a week ago when the brunt came through here, will see what happens with nam, thanks os for all the maps 🙂

      1. That’s true, however, he did talk about a coastal front and the
        possibility of an extended period of sleet. It could go over to rain in boston, but I believe there is a shot of it changing to sleet and remaining sleet until it goes back to a short period of snow again.
        We shall see. Going to be very very close on this one.

        1. Either way, we get a GOOD slug of snow before any changeover occurs. NWS indicated that it could snow
          1-2 inches per hour for a time. 😀

  90. I’m seeing the temps possibly reaching the low 40’s by early afternoon Tue bc of the storm going basically over the cape, 30’s north and west of 128 and esp 495

    1. Easily 40s in SouthEastern sections. Boston will be near the dividing line.
      Pretty cold inland, probably near freezing or slightly below. Boston, probably
      mid-30s.

  91. Thanks for posting the link Old Salty. Its that period of ice that I am concerned about here in CT on top of the 3-5 inches of snow before this goes over to a rainorama. As I have saying for the past couple days the Tuesday morning commute is going to be messy!

  92. Oldsalty I could be wrong but I just don’t think Boston will see 8 inches. What time does the nam come out. I want to see what the runs show tomorrow.

  93. All depends on what happens from 12am to 6am. 1-2 inches per hour is possible so you can see how we get to 8 inches.

    1. Hadi I just don’t see that high of an amount for Boston. If we do that’s great just I’m having a hard time seeing that. If the storm comes in after midnight I’m definitely thinking not. Different times by everyone 11,12,2. If the storm hits Boston at 2am just not happening. All mets seem to have rain in Boston first thing Tuesday morning.

    1. Snow Camp and Bust Camp are the official parties for any storms that are in play for precipitation type disagreements.

  94. I was in the snow camp this time and with the last storm. I underestimated the snowfall amounts big time.
    It all depends on where those heavy bands of snow setup shop.

  95. I’m sticking with the snow camp. Based on first gut feeling but also the comments here and TKs implication that the cold could be pulled in. I just don’t feel winter is done with us. We have a roaring fire for s’mores but also cups of fresh snow topped with New England maple syrup.

      1. Guess I am also in the snow camp after being burned last time. Of course, my being in the snow camp will probably nix the snow chances here in Boston.

        Practically a mid-winter chill outside. Remarkable few days, really, for March. And, essentially we’re going to see a lot more of this the rest of the month. Would not be surprised to see more possibilities of storms later this month. Perhaps a Palm Sunday surprise, or a Good Friday finale. Notice that throughout the remainder of the month, while large portions of the country will definitely be warming up, including western and central Canada, the Northeast will remain quite cool and cold with successive fronts passing through from a reservoir of remaining Arctic air in eastern Canada. This pattern established itself in March of 1993, 1996, and early April 1997 (about a 10 day period of snow followed by a period of sunny weather, but well below normal temps).

        1. Responding to my own post, of course I did not mean a “10 day period of snow in April 1997,” but instead I meant the April Fool’s blizzard, followed by 10 days of relative cold.

        2. I just happened to look at the Wundermap for the GFS and by April 2 it looks that warmth in the midwest may be trying to push east (or maybe I’m just wishing it)
          🙂

    1. Could be, indeed. What feels different these past few days from normal cold days in March is that the much stronger sun seems almost impotent. Unable to push the thermometer into the 40s. It may warm up a car, or look nice, but today walking in the sun I felt like I would feel on a relatively cold January day.

  96. I think also another problem we are going to have is the dry air, its going to take a while for precip to take over the dry air, this might delay the precipitation and cut snowfall amounts a little. What does everybody think of this?.. Hadi SNW on fb also.mentioned the same about more cold air because of the position of the high

  97. It looks like a very cleaned up run, shave off a one third off qpf bc overdone slightly and at 5 or 6 to 1 snow ratios that’s about 4 inches in Boston, lots of rain far southeastern mass and cape

      1. that’s the key Charlie. It’s been cold too. It’s not like it’s been 50 degrees for a week.

  98. decent storm for most all of New England. Thing moves along. Certainly respectable for this time of year.

  99. It’s 27 out here tonight with a depoint of 1.

    We’re in the heart of winter still for crying out loud.

  100. It still brings in mild air into southeastern mass temps could skyrocket into the mid 40’s, there’s gonna be a coastal front

  101. The rain snow line on the nam goes all the way up to southern nh eventually, I think we got a somewhat messy storm coming with Boston experiencing heavy snow,sleet and then rain,

  102. Yeah I don’t think many have said that rain will not take over but rather that we should get a pretty good slug of snow before eventually transitioning over to liquid.

  103. before i go to bed. im thinking up to 3 inches east of i95.
    3-6 else where. 6-12 higher elevations interior. 12-18 northern new england but 8-12 valleys

    1. Yes, adding up the 3 hour totals, gives Boston 7 inches for this event with
      the SREF model. We shall see.

  104. From NWS at Taunton:

    FARTHER NORTH TOWARD THE MA PIKE AND RT-128…THE CHANGEOVER TO
    SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE SLOWER…TOWARD MID MORNING.
    ALWAYS A TOUGH CALL FOR CITY OF BOSTON GIVEN PROXIMITY TO OCEAN.
    HOWEVER NEARBY COASTAL WATERS ARE COOL WITH SST IN THE U30S. THIS
    COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND HEAVY PRECIP YIELDS A MODERATE
    RISK OF 4-7 INCHES ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF ICE. HENCE…INCLUDED
    THE GREATER BOSTON AREA IN THE WATCH.

    1. From Upton NWS office:

      .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/…
      GULF MOISTURE WITH A SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC TAP AND THE NRN STREAM
      GET TOGETHER OVER THE CWA MON NGT AND TUE. CONSENSUS TRACK IS FOR
      DEEPENING TO TAKE PLACE JUST SE OF NYC MON NGT AND PASSING JUST SE
      OF OR OVER MTP TUE.

  105. At this point I am so used to going from needing arctic tundra gear to a spring coat within a few days, that when the temperature finally becomes more regular I’ll be all messed up! Haha!

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