Quick Forecast Update … Not changing much yet!

195 Comments

12:55 AM

Call me stubborn. I’m still not convinced this thing goes just like the TV guys say. So once again, not making major changes and not giving final amounts until later this afternoon…

TODAY: Cloudy. Slight chance of very light rain or snow in the afternoon. High 40 to 45. Wind SE 5 to 15 mph.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Steadier rain/snow developing, becoming heavier especially after midnight, most snow along and NW of the I-95 corridor, with more rain to the SE. A few inches of snow likely NW of I-95 with less to the SE, and very little south of Boston. Low 33 to 38. Wind E increasing to 10 to 20 mph.

FRIDAY: Overcast & stormy with rain and/or snow, possibly heavy at times. Several additional inches of snow accumulation occur where precipitation remains mostly snow, greatest chance of this will be inland and higher elevations. Temperature holding 33 to 38 but may fall slightly during the day.  Wind NE 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with snow showers tapering off. Low 25 to 30. Wind N 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy and windy. High in the lower 40s.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny and breezy. High in the upper 40s.

195 thoughts on “Quick Forecast Update … Not changing much yet!”

  1. 1st I would like to just say thank u very much for this great blog we have now, ok tk u have good points and I respect that u haven’t been convinced just yet of mainly a rain event and there could be a few surprises, I just can’t ignore daytime precip, intensity, and boundary layer temps r trouble during height of storm esp Boston to Providence south and east, have a great day and think spring, 1 other thing is when we have another meeting, maybe using Gillette as a meeting place, Burlington was just a bit far, I’ll check back in a bit 🙂

  2. Charlie great to see you here!!
    Keep in mind the storm now in an overnight storm vs. Daytime. I do still agree that Boston / providence is mostly rain. It just seems that these springs storms are sneaky little buggers.

  3. 6Z nam still had low coming through SE mass.

    JMA no worries on timing, either way I think I will be fine. It’s funny about flying, I have been all over the world and never worried about delays etc.., but once you are a parent all that is out the door:)

  4. good morning.

    I thought you guys met up somewhere. I’ll try and pay more attention should it be batted around again. Hadi, looks like this board was ahead again! Turned whdh on this morning with Dylan……”we think more warm air might be pulled in from the south”. I couldn’t help but think about JMA making that call like three days ago with the sneaking ridge comment. Still WSW for my spot but to JMA’s point, there’s more of you guys in the wetter towns. I think my town has like 17,000. Did you finish packing yet!

  5. So the euro brings the storm pretty much at the benchmark and most eastern NE gets rain, imagine this being January:)) boy we would be digging out from 2 feet.

  6. Retrac TK, SST and I met a month ago. We will do another one and maybe we can get more to join. I wish I was done packing:).

    Unless TK surprise happens JMA has had this nailed for days as he usually does.

    1. It does, looking at some longer range, it looks like no snow, but at the same time it wants to stay in the 40’s to low 50’s with chances for rain, out of all the seasons I think I dislike spring the most (April) as it raw,cold and, damp ugh, my fav is Sept-Feb

  8. I also was very hestitant to buy into heavy snow without a cold high. I think a lot of people have memories of 4-1-97. You will probably do well out of this storm but I only think bc it’s nighttime vs. Daytime.

    1. I remember that, me and my friend were trying to move but was halted by 1-2 inches an hr of heavy wet snow, it was crazy!

  9. Even the Canadian…warmer….

    JMA was way ahead of this. Love the style too…a teaser here, teaser there, then boom a forecast. Stuff you don’t get on television or even Accuweather blogs. He really digs deep

  10. Dewpoints in the upper 20s to low 30s this AM and Mt Washington at 18F.

    North central FL getting hit hard again this morning with heavy thunderstorms.

    Have a good day everyone !

  11. I’m figuring 6″ maybe. I’ll post an amount tomorrow for what it’s worth.

    Well, I’m going to try and get some work done for a few hours….

    Good day!

  12. I bet JMA will end up lowering his numbers from yesterday. Looking forward to hearing TK final take.

  13. Charlie- It is awesome to have you here, I always enjoy reading your blogs because
    your a straight shooter. Thank’s to TK and coastal we won’t be dealing with those trolls. Welcome.

    1. Yes well much appreciated, and yes not a big typer so usually just say what I’m thinking and not much detail on my part, wish I liked to type, take it easy John, and this blog is great!!

  14. No changes from yesterday with the Snow Index. The elevated areas of SNE I am going with a Moderate Snowfall. The areas closer to Boston a MINOR Snowfall and South Shore Cape and Islands a rainorama. Will see if this storm system has any tricks up it sleeves. More unsettled weather next week but the weekend looks nice.

  15. Please, please don’t start talking about having things nailed….I have blown many forecasts I thought I had nailed, and of course my favorite, get them right, for all the wrong reasons.

    1. Jma I do believe there will be a few surprises, the 495 belt could come in with a few inches, as towards Boston it may only mix here and there, we will c, should be exciting

  16. Overall thinking on this storm does not change much. My amounts from last night I still feel comfortable with. I do see the GFS slightly east and but nothing that really changes the sensible impacts of the storm in my my mind. To me the nighttime snowfall is what scares me the most about possible under-forecasted snow amounts. However, I suspect some slightly warmer air than modeled on the NAM/GFS will help to keep that scenario from being fully realized.

    So I go with what I had yesterday. They are on the previous blog.

  17. Any thoughts on school tomorrow, Andover area? Timing looks like a few inches maybe when the superintendents have to make the call in the morning… Figure with the days lost already this year they would be hesitant to cancel…
    I have to admit I’m ready for some warm days! I know the trout are sitting out there waiting for a bit of warmth…
    TJA

  18. JMA not saying its set, but you break down very well and stand by your forecast!! Of course forecasts are blown it happens.

  23. I just saw..I still am not buying into the snow scenario for Boston, maybe wishcasting on my part::)) as I want to fly out with no problems.

  25. Hi guys,

    just checking in. Nam still kinda funky huh…lots of precip ahead of the main low.

    JMA…hope you don’t think our intent is to put words in your mouth….we’re all big boys and gals in here and understand any forcast called, blown, whatever. Frankly I don’t think it matters much in this room since we’re about banging around ideas rather than issuing to the public. I actually wonder if TK might be out there with some proprietary cold air machine he took the cover off of today becasue this might end up a shade colder as he illuded to last night.

    Hey, I broke down and took a peek at BZ today…I won’t post but did peek. Looks like someone gave J.J. a hard time about the ‘secret’ blog…that just cracks me up that they’re in a twist about it. Maybe we should challnege them to capture the flag or something!

  26. I’m thinking precip intensity plays a big role. So, for example, it could well be raining in a city like Lowell under a light batch of precip and snowing at a location south of that under a heavy batch of precip. If this storm behaves like others this winter, we have had some storms where heavy precip intensity has maintained itself for stretches of a few to several hours at a time.

  28. Seems the models are trending east at the moment. I am curious about the early onset of precip the 12z NAM was showing.
    We’ll see what happens.

  29. Hear you Tom. I’m very interested to see how this goes down. It will, at the very least, give us a good history on model performance and reality for such a marginal event for this time of year. I mean, ’97 was a long time ago now. I imaginge the modeling technology has change exponentially since then. This will be a good test.

    1. None it all. It was more tongue and cheek than anything else. Love the feedback both positive and constructive.

  30. Probably a fair amount of rain to start Scott for most. I was thinking the same thing. It’s probably going to take a while to wet bulb down even in the hillls.

  32. you guys probably snow this so forgive but for those who don’t, check out weather underground. It’s great for real-time observation. You’ll likely find several ground stations reporting all great data from various people in your town alone. It’s great for storms and ones like this in particular where it could be raining on one end of town and snowing at the other.

    1. Are you hoping for snow? he he.. I am on the opposite side of the spectrum for this one!! Wish it was during the day today instead.

  35. Hi retrac…I have no problem with anyone going to the WBZ blog and reading the mets (and even trolls) thoughts. I still do in fact. However, it really would be best if eveyone that is now over “here” refrain from posting on the WBZ site. My thinking is that if we “boycott” WBZ in a sense (no posting) then their management will finally get the hint and make some badly needed changes. Let’s see what eventually happens.

  36. I agree Phillip. I’ve probably peeked in there two or three times since I was nominated by Hadi and cleared by Coastal & TK. I love this safehouse!

    Coastal…I noticed that too about the T-storms earlier. I wonder what JMA thinks about that. He touched on that yesterday and I wonder how it all fits. Is that the evolution of the “warm” conveyor NWS floated out in their discussion(s)?

  40. 12z GFS is a tad weaker and a tad colder. It’s going to be a close call for snow in eastern Mass.

    1. The 850mb temps seem cold enough in that run for snow in NE Mass, not sure about the lower levels. anyone have the soundings for the 12z GFS?

      1. The storm looks a little more compact with its heavier precip. Less qpf in your area but a colder solution is possible.

  42. I just feel bad for the regular person looking for good info from us who know what we are talking about. I just am sick of getting attacked every time I post something. My time is short so I don’t want to deal with that.
    Phllip I think the issue is with CBS corporate vs. BZ from what I know. But I think BZ could make some type of change. look here, TK can change anything he wants in a second, but BZ or CBS can’t do that? Makes no sense to me!!

    1. This is what I as a response from Todd on my complaint to the web site on the negative posting:

      “Hi Tom…

      Like you, I don’t like the inappropriate slander and taunting that takes place on the blog…it’s very frustrating. I have long pushed for some sort of login feature or screening but I don’t think that is the direction the station wants to go in at this time. I have forwarded your email to the website staff and hopefully something will come of it. Regardless, I and the rest of the team appreciated your reading and participation of the Weather Blog.

      Thanks,
      Todd”

  43. Cnannel 7 said rain for Boston during their morning forecast and waffled a little towards snow just now on the noon forecast.

    1. Yes, Dylan emphasized the 1-3″ for Boston a bit more than this morning. It also now seems that there is more question as to whether the 4-7″ for 128- 495 area might expand eastward somewhat. JC has a bit more concern as well.

  44. GFS! What…….

    Has the look of a classic winter storm doesn’t it. QPF still seems to be there for the most part.

    This is going to start getting interesting.

    We need the two Jedi’s in here TK and JMA.

    1. Jedi TK was worried about this being the case. 🙂
      very frustrating storm to forecast.
      up until now, Jedi JMA has been right on the money with this storm.

    1. its hard with those b/c I am not sure if they are real, I guess TK can ban the IP anyway if they are trolls so might

    2. Coastal- I would use caution. Just went to wbz to check out and have not even seen those names. The word is out that we are leaving, and the trolls don’t like it. In my oppinion If we do not know them we should not let them in the club.

      1. Also what about Shot time- I think he is good right. So if he is than you would get him on. We no that name. New names just not worth the chance-even if TK can boot them.

  49. Coastal,

    Don’t know the name.

    We should come up with some kind of standardized test like…the WCAS!

  50. There is no storm yet here, so I have not been on the money with anything.

    Retrac you hit on something. The GFS is a classic winter storm set up for the Worcester area. Two things.

    1) Its not winter and that is very important.

    2) It is west of what we would call a classic benchmark winter storm. It still comes up over the cape.

    The GFS confines the heavy precip to the areas south and east of Boston. Too warm there no matter what. You are still going to need to make cold air and you need some heavier precip to do that and I don’t see the NAM or the GFS offering nearly as much of that heavy precip (say 30-35 DBZ or greater) over as broad of an area as previously advertised.

    As you know, I have not been big on the GFS or NAM with this storm and I am still not sold on either of them. I remain very comfortable with my forecast from yesterday. I actually hate the NAM in March & April. Its cold bias has inflicted severe damage on my ego many times…

    The NAM and GFS seem to have the convection in Florida a little east of where it actually is currently. Does it mean anything? Not sure. Just watch out for drying low levels in eastern ma later today and temps warmer to our south and west than modeled later today, if that happens, I will worry about some bust potential. If the winds are straight out of the north tonight around midnight and the precip is coming down harder than advertised in the 128-495 area, I will have underforecasted snowfall amounts.

    I have to imagine though that the 12z GFS/NAM are giving TK that his colder option might have credence. I can’t blame him. It just might.

    Its stay the course for me.

  51. Hi Coastal,

    Here are some who have expressed their disgust with the BZ blog this morning and would like to know where else they can go…shotime, Weather Wizard, murphmusik, tuna, Kyle, Joe. I would also like BaileyMan to come on board as well, if he doesn’t already know about this site. I certainly understand that it is up to you and TK , of course.

    1. I believe it was Tk who said to watch tuna last week. BM is a must, Shot time I think he is real, WW for sure invite. Coastal please use caution. Like Philip said. But its up to you guys to decide

    1. Seeing that this forum is a little less public, I will include some profile information.

      I graduated from North Carolina State with a BS in Meteorology and then followed that up 2 years later with an MS in Meteorology from the University of Wisconsin. While still pursuing my Masters’ in Madison I started working for a weather services company in Madison and continued to work there for two more years after the completion of my Masters. From 1997-2008 I word for the NWS at NCEP in Camp Springs, MD. I worked in the Statistical Modeling Branch. A lot of my work there involved verification work on developmental and beta products and parallel forecasting. We did a lot of work on creating and refining the SREF & GFS Ensemble MOS Output, which to this day I think would have been a great mass forecast tool. Even though never fully realized, I still use the GEFS MOS 00z output. I grew somewhat tired of the restrictions within government work which i think dulled my abilities as forecaster and had worked long enough to secure certain retirement benefits pertaining to retiree health insurance (when that time comes) that I seized an opportunity to return to New England where I had gone to High School and my wife is from as well. I still do some independent contract work for NCEP, but my primary focus is doing private forecasting work for a company that does forecasting for large business interests, logistics companies, educational institutions, and sports teams and their related venues. I also am working with a group of people at who are working on new weather radars that are designed to work in the lowest 7500 feet of the atmosphere with high reflectivity. This is where severe storms form and can often go undetected until too late for adequate warning. I have been married for 12 years and have 2 boys.

        1. I love getting to share and learn with each of you and believe I have learned things from all of you over the last year or so. Anyway, I have a bunch of work to get done before 330. So I am out for a while.

      3. U got me beat, that’s for sure, I pursued a meoteorology degree, but stopped after a year and 4 months, glad to have ya on here 🙂

      4. Fascinating! Thanks for sharing.

        I have 4 boys so I have you beat there! 2 in Elementary, 2 in Middle School. I’m sure they would love a day off tomorrow…

        TJA

  55. This is going to be a nowcasting situation but elevated areas have a good shot at accumulating snow and will be the winners or losers depending on your prespective. The closer you are to Boston and the coast more wet than white although I think some snow will mix in and South Shore Cape and Islands rain event.

  57. JMA I doubt I am teaching you anything:-) but thanks

    here is the 9:15 Am update from NWS

    — Changed Discussion –UPDATE AT 910 AM… THE 06Z GFS IS COLDER THAN THE PREVIOUS
    RUN AND THE 00Z ECMWF 850-700 MB 1540 LINE IS A TAD COLDER THAN
    THE 00Z GFS. THIS HAS BIG IMPLICATIONS FOR AREAS IMMEDIATELY EAST
    OF OUR CURRENT SNOW/RAIN LINE. AS A RESULT…AM UPPING SNOW
    AMOUNTS FOR EASTERN HAMPDEN…EASTERN HAMPSHIRE…SOUTHERN WORCESTER…
    AND MIDDLESEX COUNTIES IN MA AS WELL AS SOUTHERN HILLSBOROUGH
    COUNTY IN NH…AND HARTFORD AND TOLLAND COUNTIES IN CT. NAM 2M
    TEMPS DROP TO THE LOW TO MID 30S IN THOSE AREAS AFTER THE
    PRECIPITATION BEGINS IN EARNEST THIS EVENING…WHICH IS ABOUT 3
    DEGREES COLDER THAN CURRENT GRIDS REFLECT. THIS WILL NECESSITATE
    THE EXPANSION OF ADVISORIES ABOUT ONE TIER EASTWARD.

  59. He does know his stuff, I think he has a blog I saw an exact write up he posted on BZ that was also in accuweather and he had a blog. I believe he is a met as well. You can tell.

  60. great blogging today guys..

    Impressive stuff JMA.

    I’m out till tonight…have bunch of appointments, class and exam tonight…wish me luck…it’s on Analyzing Financial Statements and I’m blurry eyed over it. It’s good but clearly not as much fun as JMA seems to have had.

  61. Thanks JMA, it must be nice to get paid for using your brains, I have not figured out how too yet. Wisconsin must have been a fun place to forecast. Glad you and your knowledge are here now.

    Cheerio, Merlin

    1. Nicely done Coastal – you are doing an incredible job getting everyone here. To their credit, BZ is not stopping you. When we tried to get people to join us on the alternate CN blog we created, BZ kept erasing the email we posted. I suspect BZ is as upset by this as you all are but their hands may be tied. It’s such a shame. I’m really happy Old Salty is coming aboard. I do feel badly for the every day folks (more like me) who read the blog because it was great information and now it’ll be gone

  68. Question for all, how much of a difference can a few hundred feet in elevation make in a storm like this? I live in Pelham, NH at about 365 feet of elevation and over the years I have noticed, especially in spring storms, that I can drive a mile down the road to Salem, NH at about 150 feet elevation and there can 3 or 4 inches less snow. Is that my eyes deceivng me or can that happen?

  71. I have a question from a friend who works in Essex county and has to plow anything over 1/4 inch of snow for business safety reasons. He feels there are consistently higher (or as high) totals in Essex county as anywhere else in MA. Does anyone know what the statistics are for snow by county in MA? Thanks so much.

      1. Coastal, also add “melzzz” to your list. He has been away for awhile. The name does look familiar and seems ok to me.

      2. Coastal – this is great – thanks so much! I’ll pass it on and also do some investigating myself since I’m now curious!

  72. I have noticed BZ is pulling a lot of the negative remarks quickly from the blog. In the past South Hingham has had more snow than downtown and that elevation change is not more than 50 feet. Is it that downtown is closer to the ocean or is it elevation or both?

  73. OS welcome!!

    I am reading the EURO is a little east of the 00Z run, but JMA can chime in with a lot more details.

  74. Hi all! Just checking in for a second. Have to run out on an errand with my son but will be back about 4pm. Coastal, I will get back to you about the ones asking about another place to go. I’ve been guaging everyone on WBZ’s site for some time to see if they are trouble or not. MOST are not. But I’ll check your list and we’ll chat about it in a bit…

    I’ll get to the weather when I return.

  75. Has anyone seen the 12Z ECMWF for today? Can’t seem to get at it.
    Very interested in seeing that.

    The Ukmet has more of an off shore solution, but qpf is down.
    Can’t really trust that one.

    Still iffy to me.

  76. from HPC regarding our system

    PREFERENCE: ECMWF

    ALL THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED OFFSHORE WITH THIS
    SYSTEM…WITH A MORE STRUNG OUT SHORTWAVE TRAIN WHICH DELAYS THE
    RAPID DEEPENING STAGE UNTIL THE LOW PASSES CAPE COD. THE LATEST
    ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE THE SMOOTHEST TRANSFERS OF ENERGY…AND SHOULD
    AFFORD THE BEST GUIDANCE. INTERESTINGLY…THIS MORE OFFSHORE
    SOLUTION WAS THE PREDOMINATE ONE OUT AT DAY 5…AND AS OFTEN
    HAPPENS…THE DAY 3 CONSENSUS WAS THE ODD GROUPING OUT…MOST
    LIKELY OWING TO THE SPARSE DATA SAMPLING OF THE CRITICAL ENERGY
    OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC AT THAT TIME.

  77. Coastal,

    Agreed. It looks to be far enough off shore to be a snow maker, however,
    the question is, will there be enough qpf to cool the boundary layer to allow
    for snow to reach the ground??? The big question.

    There still could be a surprise with more qpf and thus more snow.

    We shall see.

    1. Another roller coaster ride. On again off again, rain to snow to rain. Very fluent situation.

  82. P-type across most of the CONUS is in the form of rain or mix…very little snow anywhere at this time. Even the northern plains where one would expect tons of snow falling has mostly rain.

  83. Hi, all and welcome Old Salty! I just got in and it doesn’t feel that cold – it feels more like rain at this point. But I am not discounting snow as the sun sets it will get colder. ‘Though I am still trying to figure out the models, I like to look at the satellite loops. Here is the one I like to look at – http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-vis.html. I hope that is right. In any case, it is the Eastern U.S. Visible Imagery Satellite Services Division. It looks to me like the thickest clouds have moved away from FL with all that severe weather, but I don’t see that much of a northern movement yet. I could be wrong. Undoubtedly, it will move north soon. Nonetheless, it will be interesting.

  87. And this, ladies & gentlemen, is why I don’t try to put specifics on a storm until I’m confident what’s going to happen. If it means less than 24 hours before the onset, so be it. I’d rather be right once than “wrong 5 times” in the eyes of the public, or the client, or whoever is getting my info. 🙂

    1. This btw has nothing to do with discussing the possibilities in a forum such as this. Speculation is FUN and I love it. It’s just referring to info dissemination.

  89. TK,

    I hear you. Happy I don’t have to be responsible for a public forecast. As you say, it is fun to speculate and discuss here. Many thanks

  90. Hi Everyone- I know I am getting rain here in Pembroke but the tempature has sure gone down. As I am typing my wife just said it is starting to rain. I guess trying out the new baseball gear will continue on Saturday. Looking forward to the debate tonight.

  91. The NWS point forecast for Woburn has already changed from total accumulation of less than 1 inch to total accumulation of 2 to 5 inches.

  92. So what does this all mean? The Euro was pushing it out. The usually reliable short term model NAM gives us a good slug of moisture, it feels too warm to snow, but it did before the 97 storm as well, but yet we have no cold air to the north. I am glad I don’t have to make this call to millions of people in the New England area. We are within 5 hours of the start of this storm and it can not be pinned down. Don’t you just love New England in the springtime…

    1. Most of the time it feels too warm to snow before spring snow. An exception was probably April 1982. It was very windy/cold the day before.

  93. Hello and good evening, as I’ve looked at as much data as I could i still believe from Boston to Providence, I just think there are boundary layer issues, we could get some wet snow mixing in and it may even snow, but If ur looking for a grand finale to this winter I just don’t think this is it, out towards the 495 belt there will be some snow but up to 2 inches is all I c, it’s when u get up above 500ft west of 495 and north of rt 2 area where there could very well be a plowable amount (4-8 inches), I’ll check back later this evening, have a great night everyone 🙂

    1. Although I agree with some of what you said, we have to really watch areas north of route 2, further east, possibly all the way to the coastal plain of Essex County, where heavier precip will fall, basically saying “screw the boundary layer, we have colder air up here and we’re bringing it down”. The NWS has already expanded their WWA to the coast up there. And the snow amounts are going up on NWS’s point forecasts, which lately, strangely enough, have been fairly accurate.

      1. Glad to have you here Charlie. I will comment there now and again, because Mr. Troll will never beat me. But he has pretty much at least temporarily destroyed the site.

        Here, you’re free to state your opinion and whether I or anyone else agree with it or not, you won’t be put down for it, or any reason.

        Of course I can be a wise-ass, but it’s all in good fun. 🙂

  94. I’m With you TK. That colder air aloft can play dirty tricks this time of year.
    I remember one day in Mid April during the late 60s when it reached 64.
    No cold front pushing through, that evening it started raining and before you
    know, wham, it was snowing. Picked up a good 4 inches. It happens.

    Even for the immediate Boston area, I am concerned that at least for a period of time,
    we’ll get into some heavy snow. Not sure how much can or will accumulate, but I
    think it will snow in Boston.

    Hope I am WRONG!!! Don’t want it. Don’t need it.

    1. One major key will be time of heaviest precip. If it really gets going and drags cold air down before 4am, several inches can accumulate in a relatively short time (through the 7am hour). If it peaks out later, we can still get a few inches on grassy surfaces but I still think any pavements will have trouble holding snow.

  95. TK- I was just checking things out on the NOAA website. I was checking out the maps
    without any luck. Could you please tell me a map to check out. I havto start somewhere.

      1. No I will check that out now. Remember TK I do not know how to read the maps. But I want to learn so I figure I would give it a shot.

    1. OS omg that’s weather wizard!! I am sure of it I saw him write up something on accuweather and he had written a great write on BZ which wad the same and on accuweather he had a link to his website.

  99. Dont we look for impact when giving a forecast to the public (not that anyone wants me to ever do that) but even with snow falling in Boston and surrounding areas we are going to have a hard time accumulating it on pavement thus minimizing impact to the general public.

    With that said I am with OS no snow!!!

  100. Is the light snow we are getting in Framigham part of the system that is bringing the precip? It’s still 43 deg here and it’s just a very light snow.

    1. It is the beginning of the expanding precip shield associated with the evolution of the main storm.

  101. Hadi,

    Don’t be so sure it won’t accumulate on the pavements. If it is intense enough, believe it, it will. It just depends on the intensity.

  104. Philip,

    Pete B did say 2-4″ but 4-7″ metrowest. He also said that it would start at 9 pm as rain creating colder air which then will create snow from midnight to 9am then back to rain and finally back to snow at 5 pm. He also alluded to thunder snow.

  106. Like it or not, our NE weather can be exciting at times and this may just be one
    of them. Thunder Snow? Hmmm Would that indicate intense? I think perhaps so.

    Waiting to see how things evolve. Still waiting for the inevitable surprise.

  107. I’m for sure becoming concerned, here in Bristol/Norfolk cty line we have rain and snow, but the intensity at times is impressive, although there r no signs of accumulation now, but later tonight is concerning

  108. Unless I am mistaken, I thought I saw some snowflakes around a few minutes ago here in Sudbury. So much for my earlier post when I said it felt more like rain! 🙂

    2. Rainshine. I’m in Framingham on Sudbury line. It’s now between a fine snow and rain. Somewhere in between

      1. Vicki – I guess we are almost neighbors! 🙂 My husband and me lived in Framingham for many years – moved to Sudbury a few years ago. I just looked out window and it is snowing light to moderate here now. But it isn’t sticking to the grass or pavement yet.

  110. If it is already snowing, then it is likely to snow all night and will ONLY change to rain
    IF it warms aloft (And it may for a period), or at least that is how I see it.

  111. I just updated my FB page telling my friends there that the TV guys would start upping their totals as of the 5pm/6pm newscasts.

  112. Barry, during the teaser, just said the forecast was difficult at best (I am paraphrasing a bit.). Biggest issue is calling the rain/snow line. Actually sounded a little frustrated about the whole thing. Made it sound like a TV met’s nightmare. His full forecast will be in 10 minutes or so.

  113. Great to have Barry on tonight.

    It’s spitting something here in JP. I guess it’s wait and see approach right now. I can feel the temp cooling outside. It’s clearly a nowcasting event, I know the trolls on BZ would love to hear that:-)

        1. He is. Trust me. So is Barry. I’m going to email Barry in a bit to ask him how worried he really is. Hopefully he has a chance to reply.

  115. sneaking in a few comments between library and test….
    1. what in the world happened. I’ve only been out for a few hours.
    2. Why do we seem to always question the NAM.
    3. I can see TK’s cold making machine works. Patent that sucker TK.
    4. Glad to see our ranks are swelling in here

    1. We’re right to question the NAM. As good as it can be at times, it’s had a few whopper bomb misses this winter, including the one that screwed Barry & myself over.

  116. there’s some snow falling here in Marshfield, to the ocean’s edge. I guess the column in cold enough right now.

    1. “The Column” (sounds like a movie title) will be colder than models forecast for most of the storm.

      1. lol….I’m stunned that its snowing. As soon as the precip slightly intensified, the light rain became mixed with a lot of big snowflakes. It was in the mid 40s a few hrs ago.

  117. Pete Bouchard pointed out that temps are even colder in SE MA & Cape…only in the mid-upper 30s. He thinks that in and of itself may be a sign to start upping snow totals just west of Boston and possibly the city itself.

  118. Barry gave his forecast but openly and freely said he was “not confident” about it. His reasoning was a drop of “one degree or even a fraction of a degree” in this type of storm can change rain into wet snow. Said it was a very “tough call.”

  120. Like many of you are reporting in your towns, light snow has been floating down for an hour or so in Worcester. The temperature has also dropped a few degrees to 38. It feels like something pretty big is about to happen; I can feel it in this dull headache I always seem to get along with low pressure heading in. Hmm… Is it actually reliable to “use my head” to figure out the forecast? Probably not, but I’m going to anyway. Works for me!

    1. Well,,,, I’ve got moderate snow and it is becoming to accumulate on some shady grassy areas,, shocking!!!!!!!!!!

  122. I have been busy all day and am behind in the forecast. As I look at the radar, I see a batch of precip over southeastern New England. Is this the precip to watch or should I be looking down the coast for another area to develop and move into the region ?

  123. ******
    I’ve updated the blog if you want to move there to continue chatting.
    I may set up a special section for daily weather chat in the next couple days, but for now just do as you have been. I’ll be checking in frequently this evening. 🙂

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