Boston Area Weather Update

27 Comments

4:30PM

Discussion…

A weak disturbance will cross southern New England tonight, producing clouds, and a brief period of rain or even some wet snow, greatest chance from the southern half of Massachusetts southward.

High pressure will build in from the north Thursday then hang on through  much of the coming weekend, with fair weather expected. It will start out on the cool side, especially near the coast, Thursday & Friday due to some onshore winds. Milder weather is expected this weekend. Clouds may increase on Sunday as warmer air from the SW tries to move in, first aloft, then toward the surface.

A strong southwest flow is expected to bring a preview of summer on Monday. A cold front will put an end to that by Tuesday. I am not sure if we will see clearing Tuesday or get into a period of northeast winds with damp weather, as often happens right after a warm spring day. There is plenty of time to figure out those details. In the mean time, enjoy the nice stretch of weather upcoming!

Detailed Forecast…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy through 2:00AM with some light rain showers changing to snow showers, especially along and south of the Mass Pike. Clearing after 2:00AM. Low 31 to 36. Diminishing wind.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. High 44 to 49 coast, 50 to 55 inland. Wind E 5 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear except partly cloudy along the coast. Low 30 to 35 inland, 35 to 40 coast. Wind E under 10 mph.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. High ranging from 45-50 coast to 55-60 well inland. Wind E 5 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog inland valley areas. Low ranging from 25 to 30 inland valleys to 35 to 40 along the coast. Wind light variable.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. High 55 to 60 except turning cooler along the coast. Wind variable around 10 mph with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 40 to 45. Wind S 5 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. High 50 to 55 except cooler coast. Wind S to SE 5 to 15 mph.

MONDAY: Partly sunny and windy. Low 46. High 73.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and drizzle. Low 44. High 53.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 39. High 60.

27 thoughts on “Boston Area Weather Update”

  1. TK, I noticed that Pete Bouchard and Todd are going with 80’s for Monday! Why are you going so low like the NWS and Harvey? Also, I am somewhat puzzled as to why the CPC is going with well below normal temps for their 6-10/8-14 day outlooks. Just based on our own local extended forecasts including NWS, even factoring in cold fronts and showers, the temps to me appear to be “slightly” above normal for many days at the very least. Keep in mind, I am by no means taking the CPC seriously, but just curious more than anything else.

      1. My problem with being too aggressive for Monday’s temps is wind trajectory. Straight SW, WSW, ok, 80 is attainable. SSW? Forget it. Too much modification via the ocean water just south of New England. That’s why we did not get to 70 yesterday. Barry & I were chatting on his blog about that Sunday evening. I felt there would be too much southerly component to the wind to allow eastern New England to reach 70, and that the front would be too fast to allow western New England to be really warm as well.

        Not sure about CPC’s outlook. I have to look into that.

  2. Philip I was wondering the same thing about the CPC but I think they average out what the temperatures will be during the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks. Warm look to come through late in the weekend and then Monday we are in the warm sector but a cold front comes through with a chance for showers and maybe even some rumbles of thunder.
    Last time for the Snow Index this year and where it does snow it will be MINOR.

    1. Jimmy, regarding the CPC outlook there must be one very chilly air mass potential at some point in the next two weeks. Those are some fairly dark blue colors over us in the extended period especially. I guess we will see.

      And you can put away your Snow Index until November at the earliest, probably even for most of NNE as well. 🙂

      1. That is what I am thinking in regards to temperature. Brett Anderson in his blog said the cooler than normal temps will continue through most of April. Its going to be anything but that if the forecast holds for Monday.

        1. I saw Brett’s outlook as well. As much as I hate hot weather, I hope that it won’t be as cool as Brett is thinking. Even under the best of circumstances, around here spring temps are cool enough as it is, especially along the coast where I am.

  4. The ideal temperatures for me in the summer would be upper 70s low 80s. As I just mentioned on Todd’s blog warm temperatures and no mention of the H word (Humid)

  5. Gee-I thought I was being aggressive earlier when I said 70 – to possibly close to 80 in the Merrimack Valley and the CT RVR Valley? Typically these southwest flow springtime events due to tend get warmer in the valleys in the springtime than modeled. The models tend to have a cold bias to due to climo during this time of the year. However, I wouldn’t be forecasting a widespread mid 80’s on Wednesday for the following Monday. Maybe 70’s with a mention that a few of the typically warmer locations might approach 80.

  6. I disagree with the CPC outlook and Brett Anderson’s blog, as described here. ( I did not read it). CPC will probably change 5 times over the next 8 days anyway. It usually does….

    I actually see mid-late April having multiple periods of normal to above normal temps. Especially away from the coast. I see warm periods like Sunday-Tuesday followed by frontal passages and brief cool downs behind it, which will then be followed by another ridge building in.

    I am the first to admit that monthly or seasonal outlooks are not my strength, but I see good signals in the GFS/ECWMF/GGEM and their respective ensembles for maybe 3 periods where SNE could be under the influence of an East Coast Ridge. Not so much in the actual modeled day to day weather but more in the continued signal for a digging trough on the west coast, a ridge in the SE, and High Pressure between the Carolinas and Bermuda with opportunities for a return flow around that High.

      1. Sometimes my thoughts pan out -See the early prediction for nicer weather than forecasted for late this week and this weekend.

        Sometimes they don’t – See a further west track than modeled for last weeks winter weather event…

  7. Good evening- Quick post last night but other than that have not posted since Sunday.Back to work and It’s been crazy. looking forward to the warm weather, I am in shock on hearing how warm it may get here on Monday. Tk I am so mad at Thomas on that Monday game, they better wake up. Have a nice night.

      1. I have more faith in the Sox. Until the Bruins prove to me they can get beyond the 1st or 2nd round of the playoffs and not blow series leads, I am one of little faith….

  8. The Red Sox need to get the bats going with Cleveland one run last night and only two runs so far tonight. The starting pitching for this game and last nights game was okay. I always like to see where the teams are at the All Star Break and I would be surprised if the Orioles are in 1st place at that time.

  9. You got to think they would be pumped up Friday for two reasons one being the home opener and the other you are playing your rival in the New York Yankees. They are only down one run currently against Cleveland so will see what happens but I think it is fair to say nobody saw this start coming.

  13. Safe travels home Hadi and it looks like you are bringing the warm weather back with you. As I said last night and I am going out on the limb I don’t think the Snow Index will be making any more appearances this year. I am keeping an eye on a cold front for Monday night but I am thinking just some rumbles possible at this early stage in the game but another severe weather event appears to be looming for other parts of the country with this same front.
    When are the Red Sox going to win their first game?
    I am going with tomorrow since they will be pumped for the home opener and playing their rivals the Yankees.

    1. As I posted on FB earlier today, the Sox have decided to lose their first 70 games then win the next 92. Nice & simple. 🙂

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