The Week Ahead

303 Comments

10:37PM

A minor snow event will be winding down as the new week begins, having dropped a coating to an inch or 2 of snow on most of southeastern New England, and perhaps a bit more in some areas of northeastern MA and coastal NH. A developing low pressure will be beyond the region Monday but still throw back some instability into eastern areas, enough for some clouds and possibly some snow showers. In addition, cold air will be reinforced as this system intensifies while moving away, and this cold air, with fair weather, will dominate through Wednesday.

Thursday into Friday, it appears that a storm system will impact the region. I’m not quite sure of the details of this system, as guidance has shown everything from a snowstorm to a rainstorm to a miss. At the very least, the potential for a moderate to strong storm system is there and will be monitored during the next few days. It will be at least somewhat milder with the passage of this system.

Looking ahead to next weekend, behind whatever storm system comes by the region, it looks fair and seasonably chilly.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy with areas of snow tapering to snow showers – accumulating a coating to 2 inches with isolated heavier in northeastern MA and coastal NH. Lows 20-25. Wind light N.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers. Highs 25-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 10-15. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 23-28. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 25.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Snow to rain. Low 20. High 40.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 35. High 45.

SATURDAY & SUNDAY: Fair. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

303 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

    1. It’ll be a stretch to get 2 anywhere but I left the possibility there. The coating to 2 inches I had cover pretty much everything. This event will be winding down in the next 2 hours.

  3. SNowing really hard here in JP at the moment. 😀
    I mean Really hard. Vis way down to 1/4 to 1/2 mile. 😀

          1. Nope, I’m about to hope into bed. Don’t think
            we make an inch. Tapering off already. Eye ball says 1/2 to NO more than an inch. 😀

  4. So basically the GFS had the idea of this thing right. Southern stream feature gets away and goes way out to sea. Northern stream feature comes through here – though as was suspected, it had over-forecast precipitation/snow before backing off to more realistic numbers. This is indeed something to take into account as we look at the midweek threat. Not saying the GFS has this one, but its solution cannot be simply ignored, DESPITE the bigger storm solution by the majority of models.

    If GFS trends toward them in the next 24-48 hours, then it’s a pretty safe bet something bigger is going to impact the East Coast. Yes, I am giving that much weight to the model that I usually don’t care for. But I think the performance of other models this winter makes that perfectly logical. I’d love to hear JMA’s take on this.

  7. TK, :re your post above, I am reading the GFS ensemble mean is just outside the benchmark, so a good deal closer to the coast than the operational run. I think it’s safe to say that with increasing model consensus, odds are pretty good for a significant event. I’m more concerned about rain/snow line than a miss at this point.

    1. Could be!

      The ensembles also had a hit for the storm that just passed several hundred miles out to sea, so we shall see how it pans out. A couple solid days to iron it all out. 🙂

  9. Trying to figure out why someone has woken up my kids at 4am bc they r plowing a quarter of an inch of snow, and it sounds like there plowing 4 ton rocks, absolutely ridiculous, I think when they were giving out brains, they thought they said trains, these guys will salt anything and plow anything for a buck, it makes ya sick to my stomach , I’m gonna try to get the kids back to sleep, call those property managers later to complain that salt would have worked fine instead of waking up the entire neighborhood plowing a feather dusting. Rant done

    1. Keep in mind in most instances it is how the contract is structured that forces the hand of the contractor to scrape anything more than a trace of snow. In this lawsuit loving world we live in, Property Managers require snow removal contractors to strictly follow the contract. Most contracts I’ve seen state anything over 1.0″ must be plowed, but some require parking lots to be bare wet pavement immediately or very shortly after storm is over to protect themselves. Before you jump to conclusions and pile all snow removal contractors into the big bucket of money grubbing individuals, which most are honest hardworking individuals that are following the contractual agreement set forth by their client i.e. Property Managers, business owners, home owners, etc.

      1. Nick, I know who plows that property, how they make there money on that property, they got paid twice for plowing and then sanding, I’ve been doing this for almost 22 yrs, and have over 700 clients, I appreciate your opinion thank u 😉

        1. Charlie, There are some cracks that will “create” a billable event for plowing I agree, but usually you only hear about that in a snow drought. Sure sounds like the property manager doesn’t have a stiff enough backbone and the contractor knows it. No need to justify your comment with your resume, I trust you know right from wrong 🙂 Cheers, here’s to a nice TRUE billable event on Thursday.

  10. Mid Atlantic is gonna get a sizable snowstorm, this could be a snow event where it snows close to if not in NYC, but mostly rain here in Boston. This next storm thu will be a snow/rain mix. We shall see

  11. Mark that latest run of the EURO brings a good dumping of snow to us here in CT with double digit totals. I don’t like the position of the high moving offshore. I want to see it over northern new england to lock in the cold air. I think we see something for Thursday big storm jury is still out.

  13. 06Z GFS closer and stronger. Still keeps majority of the precip offshore but closer. Way warm though. Gives boston 1 maybe 2″

  14. I just dont understand how so much warmth gets in here with that track. Rather have nothing than rain on top of snow.

  15. No cold high to the north to lock in the cold air. The high is moving offshore which is not a great position. Have to see if we get a strong enough low pressure to create its own cold air and track at the benchmark to compensate for the high being in a bad spot.

  16. Good morning,

    Still don’t lnow what to make of this week’s event or not:

    Here is the EURO from Wundermap. Gives a decent fron end snow, BUT goes over
    to RAIN in all Eastern SNE:

    http://i.imgur.com/mEWg7ME.jpg?1

    Here is the 15KM FIM:

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2014021000/236/3hap_sfc_f096.png

    The 06Z GFS:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=06&mod=gfs&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=gfs&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=096&fixhh=1&hh=090

    As stated, closer than the 0Z run last night

    06Z NAM:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=PNMPR&hh=090&map=na&stn2=PNMPR&run2=06&mod2=gfs&hh2=090&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

      1. Nice executive summary there O.S. – thanks.

        I’m thinking right now a 980 to 990mb low within 25 miles of the either side of the B.M. with a R/S line right to 128.

        Comes down hard enough, City might be ok.

        (I can’t believe I just stuck my neck out there as if I have any idea of what I’m talking about. Nothing more than a wild a** guess)

        1. That’s OK Retrac, that’s what this blog is all about.
          That is an early call.

          See below, I think it will be the snow to rain event
          in Eastern sections. You “may” be far enough inland
          for all snow regardless.

          Right now, I don’t see much of a chance Boston stays
          all snow. It could, but as I see it know, no.

  18. re: the above solutions

    The run the gamut from an inside runner RAIN storm to a Snow to Rain event to an All snow event to a minor grazing.

    Right now, I’d lean to a “Snow to Rain” event all over Eastern Sections, with a healty
    snow event Up North and Far inland sections. But it is early and the models are
    still all over the place.

    Any of the above could still happen, including the more OTS grazing solution.

    Only the GFS and FIM favor the more off shore solution (along with NAVGEM fwiw).

    The Euro and NAM are similar with a more coastal hugger snow to rain.
    CMC and UKMET want to give us a decent sized snow event.

    In this case, go with the middle of the road, coastal hugger, snow to rain.

    We shall see. Wonder what the 12Z runs look like?

    1. I wonder what Climo. says on a setup like that N/W of 495. I’m thinning safe and that’s not wish-casting either. Just years of watching the weather.

      1. Yes, I think you are in SNOW regardless of track, unless it is
        WAY West. I just don’t think odds are great for the City. Still
        could snow, though. Just too early to tell.

        REALLY interesting to watch later model runs for this one. 😀

      1. Hey they forgot #3! Oh I guess they don’t like the GFS either. 😉

        Actually I can see how the coast-hugging solution can come to be. Tracing the various models’ handling of short wave energy, the ones that show the hugging low is phasing 2 pieces of energy in the Deep South which would certainly make more rapid intensification of a surface low occur, independent of the northern jet stream, which would have a stronger short wave hanging way back to the west, basically staying out of the way, and allowing the subtropical jet to tilt back and send the storm right up the coast. It would be a fast-mover, either way.

  21. I wrote to the ECMWF and sort of complained about the model’s reliability this year versus last year. Here’s what I got back … obviously nothing will happen, but I registered my concerns.

    Hello,

    Thank you for your email and interest in our products.
    I will pass your feedback on to the relevant teams.

    Best regards
    Sylvia
    for ECMWF calldesk

    2. Canned reply.

      “Sylvia” is probably the name of the in-house computer network, or the computer that generated the reply.

  22. Im not sure track matters that much for coastal areas. If im seeing this right, as the high moves east, the interaction between the high and the low down the coast produces a southeast flow into SNE ahead of the storm. By the time it gets here, even though we’re on the western side too much warm air has already come in and theres nothing to get cold air back in.

  23. Low about 100 SE of the benchmark, not getting too deep, maybe 100-1004 mb. Precip extends back to central Mass, western RI, southeast NH and southern ME.

    A .2-.5 melted fall of precip, with 1-3 inches of very wet snow area wide.

    Going with about a 75/25 blend, GFS/EURO respectively.

    If this ends up being correct, I’ll start up with the lottery. 🙂 🙂

    1. TK, did u change your name to Tom for the day? If thats the case, can i be Old Salty for the day?? 🙂

  24. Tk…plows up and down street scraping payment twice last night in the middle of the night. Snow never even completely covered the street…there go my taxes!

    1. On this side of town they just treated the roads, which was more than enough. I guess they treat the big hill differently.

  25. I had to go look again. A bit more than a dusting here. No roads treated, no shoveling or plowing. Just a pretty white top coat.

  26. Still a good amount of snow on the tree limbs from last Wednesdays storm for those that are not in direct sunlight.

    1. Same in Sharon, 3/4″ tops. Was nice enough to cover up some of the dirty snow though. Im impatiently waiting for the 12Z runs but i suspect we will see the same variance.

  28. Question all…assuming we get a storm this week…does it start Wednesday? If so, what times? I have work Thursday night we want to move to Wendesday night but want to make sure it won’t be snowing them (this would be to 10-11pm). Thanks.

    1. Im sure others could probably answer more accurately, but from what i see at this early stage, looks to start later wed night (post midnight). As TK has said, fairly quick system as all have been this winter so I would go out on a limb and say it will be done with by 10pm thursday.

    1. Interesting for someone who calls it crap outside 60 hours.

      You can tell the level of excitement by the # of typos in the post too. 🙂

  35. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084&image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_1000_500_thick.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=1000_500_thick&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084&image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

    Looks cold enough for snow to me, at least to start. Looking at the timing, this looks to get started Thurs night not wednesday.

  36. Jim Cantore tweet

    @JimCantore: Confidence grows that I-95 corridor will have impact snow on Thursday from #DC to #Boston as southern snow and ICE storm pulls north.

    1. Agree, TK. It’s unusual to see more snow down south than here, but I believe that is what will happen Thursday. Colder temps in DC than Boston. Doesn’t happen often, but I think will on Thursday. An analogy is what sometimes happens in early spring with retrograding lows that reverse course. It rains in coastal and central Maine, and snows in Boston.

      1. Could very well be the case this time. Still enough model spread right now that we can make a case for just about any scenario.

  39. Some of you have posted NAM maps showing no snow in Boston as of 84 hours.
    Be patient. 850MB temps are OK. Surface temps suck and that is the problem.

    When the heavier stuff gets here, it WILL bring down colder air from above, so
    in Boston we “may” actually have a RAIN TO SNOW situation. 😀 😀

    I won’t repeat surface or snow maps, but I will show this interesting 4-panel chart:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/ImageFourPanel.php?model=nam&area=namer&cycle=12&fhr=084&param=500_vort_ht|1000_500_thick|700_rh_ht|850_temp_ht&size=medium

    You will note a very well defined CLOSED LOW at 500MB.
    You will note 850MB temperatures are fine
    You will note that the 1000-500MB thickness 540 line runs about through Boston.
    700mb Relative humidity chart looks loaded.

    Add it all up and I think that this will aide in bringing down the cold from above and give us a heavy wet snowfall.

    CAVEAT

    This is the 12Z NAM at 84 hours now. Still want to view the 12Z runs for
    GFS, EURO, CANADIAN and FIM to round out the guidance.

    Thoughts?

    Am I ALL wet?

    1. Argg it only posted one map. Here are the rest:

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/data/nam/20140210/12/nam_namer_084_1000_500_thick_s.gif

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/data/nam/20140210/12/nam_namer_084_850_temp_ht_s.gif

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/data/nam/20140210/12/nam_namer_084_700_rh_ht_s.gif

      Sorry I posted these before I read TK’s comments.

      So perhaps I am out to lunch??? But maybe not???

      1. Not out to lunch, OS.

        It’s always possible that in a case like this, a mature low will be moving along fast enough that it still gives a nice slug of precipitation on its back side (including banding) even though there is not a whole lot of large scale lift going on with it. It’s still precipitating-out and if you catch it just right – you still get some decent amounts.

        This is a tricky one, not just with track, which will be even more important than usual, but with size of low, stage of maturity, forward speed, orientation of precip, temps surface and aloft, basically all of it.

        I’m going to have more time than usual to track this one. I’m sitting home for 2 weeks with nothing to do but watch Olympics, track weather, and do in-house organizing projects. 🙂

    1. Timing won’t matter too much since it will still be depending on low track. If we have a coastal hugger it won’t matter what time of day/night it is, we’ll flip to rain in southeastern New England.

  41. Nick, I know who plows that property, how they make there money on that property, they got paid twice for plowing and then sanding, I’ve been doing this for almost 22 yrs, and have over 700 clients, I appreciate your opinion though nick, I called up Cryan Landscaping to talk to Cryan and he was pissed, it was joe brainlessly plowing a dusting, Cryan said he was only instructed to salt. The guy told Cryan he was gonna charge for a plowing lol needless to say he’s put put to the back of the line

  42. Unless a storm tracked over or west of us to veer the winds to SE or S, I cannot see the boundary layer getting too mild. So, if the wind stays 090 or backed closer towards northerly, I cant imagine the 38F ocean warming eastern Mass anywhere above the mid 30s, even with a healthy breeze. Having the cool enough column above a borderline boundary layer should result in mostly wet snow.

    I still think a bit SE of the benchmark, maybe over the benchmark. Without a pronounced trof or a ddep disturbance over the Great Lakes, I cant see how this southern stream entity gets yanked so far west.

    1. Agreed Tom, but i think the issue might be the retreating high’s flow interacting with the low producing a strong pressure gradient and SE flow well before the storm gets up here, warming the surface. But, as OS has pointed out, once this thing gets cranking, if it does, it can bring down cold air which the layers just above will be more than cold enough to support snow creating a brief period of snow to start, quickly going over to rain, then back to snow

  43. Plowing issue: Yes, you cannot blame the contractors per se. However, there are reasons we have so many potholes, and one of them is excessive plowing, especially on surfaces that barely have any snow. This rips up roads much worse than frost- heaving. So, ultimately we the taxpayer are paying for unnecessary plowing with bad roads that need constant attention.

    1. Eecvessive salt!!! , they love to salt, but do understand safety, I think they should salt during rainstorms lol

      1. True. The excessive salt does a number on wild flowers and plants along the sides of roads. About the only thing that survives the salt onslaught is crab-grass.

    2. Plus no one thinks like that, and if they do, scare tactics will then be used on them basically forcing them into salting, we never ever do this. And it just a pet peve bc I know how much there instructed or the personal operator takes advantage of clients and I hate it :), not everyone does but a lot do 🙂

    1. I agree, slop storm is no good. This setup is not good for my basement. Frozen ground with the exception of the 4-6″ around the foundation, with heavy rain added is not a good combo. I’m in the process adding a waterproofing coating to the interior to my basement walls but I think i should have done it a lot sooner.

      2. I got mine waterproofed with the interior french drain system…expensive for sure but for me it was worth the piece of mind!

        1. I may have to end up doing that in the end as I plan to re-finish everything down there. Want to see if this works first. If we get rain on top of snow this week it will be a good test

          1. If you were to finish it I would. I used this guy:

            http://basementwaterstop.com/

            Best in the business. He actually created a lot of the technology used in basement waterproofing and was a founding member of B-Dry before he went on his own. Honet guy too…he actually talked me out of a batter backup for my pump.

              2. Battery, not batter. Ugh. Bad typing day. Although there is something to be said about having backup batter 😉

              1. 🙂 That is indeed, a fine job! Will keep him I mind if my basement starts to leak again. So far, new gutters and addition placement of downspouts has worked.

      3. I’m concerned we have snow to rain or mainly rain, the models have trended towards this or have just showed it for a couple days now

  46. I dont know about other areas of Mass, but here on the south shore, when I look at the majority of roofs, they already have a good 4-8 inches of solid wet snow on them.

    I wonder how much more wet snow, cold rain or a combo of the 2 roofs could take before weight on roofs becomes an issue come Thursday …….

    1. True. I have a two story and can’t roof rake as well as my old ranch. I can get the first foot or two so I at least avoid damming, but can’t get the majority of it off.

          1. We pulled gutters on the two back roofs a while ago. I think you are right, though. I looked at houses when I was just out and the ones that had been raked with the gutters had the bigger ice dams. Our big roof has a gradual slope so it dams up to the point where we rake and if that’s above the ice/water shield, in it comes.

    2. I’m worried about that also, Tom. I can’t rake the new rubber roof. And the big roof always leaks if I roof rake it. Go figure. And I’m not seeing a lot of melting before the end of the week either.

      1. the lack of melting has been incredible, in my opinion. Its been a while since I’ve seen 4 or 5 successive days after a decent snowfall where practically none of it has melted.

        Heck, there could be daily cross country skiing down here in Marshfield by the ocean. Brant Rock is covered decently in snow.

  47. A very pleasant day out, running around, do wish the snow melts so I can begin measuring a few new clients properties, have a good day everyone, be back later 🙂

    1. Breezy and in the 20s yet you can feel the “pleasant” because of the higher sun angle. It’s noticeable.

      1. Yeah I noticed that. Just wish we could get a few days around 40 to get some melting. I don’t mind the snow so much as a the build up of it. So far this winter we’ve been lucky with almost complete melting between storms.

  48. Ugh

    Looked over the 12Z GFS:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014021012&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=090

    With the GFS run, this system has basically blown itself out before it gets up here,
    leaving us with leftovers. 😀

    Also, 850MB 0C line gets up to about Boston, however, precipitation intensity is NOT
    there, thus coastal areas get rain or mix or non-accumulating SLOP. Again, it’s just one run, but NOT liking it at all.

    This isn’t what we want either.

    Only GOOD thing I can say about this run: It’s NOT an OTS scenario. 😀

    1. I wouldnt say that OS. Almost looks to me like it bombs out when its just east of us. Pressure gets down to 980. If it were closer, look at all that precip just offshore at hour 99

      1. But you’re right, as far as precip goes and accumulating snows, it makes its mark down south and doesnt do much up here, too far OTS

          2. whats the melted precip totals ? Perhaps its low-mid 30s boundary layer temperatures which is why the wet snow totals would be very low.

  49. Would rather see an OTS than slop, quite frankly. Nevertheless, we need the precipitation. And, if it’s a coastal hugger, north country will get some snow.

  50. I am reading the 12z UKMET is a big hit for coast with a 984mb low and benchmark track. Widespread 12″+ amounts.

    1. Mark,

      Where are you seeing the 12Z Ukmet?

      I can only see the 0Z run, which has a 986mb low in nearly perfect postion.

      What site do you use? Can you please post a link? Many thanks

  51. So …. is the conclusion from this run that the GFS took a step closer to the EURO from its 0z run ?

    And now, maybe the 12z EURO’s projected low will head east some and there’ll be agreement ..

    Right ……. of course 🙂 🙂

  52. I wouldn’t put too much stock in the GFS at this point. It has had no run to run consistency, is just now trending to the larger more potent system closer to the coast (as the other models have been showing for several runs now), and its ensembles have been all over the place. It also doesn’t handle the southern stream storms nearly as well as the Euro which has been pretty consistent with its solution.

    GFS is better with the northern stream systems (which we have had a lot of this year) and probably explains why its performance has been somewhat better to date.

    1. Interesting thoughts Mark. The GFS was soooo consistent on the storm last week, but has been so variable from run to run since then. I tend to agree with you, but will be waiting impatiently for the 12z Euro

    1. Very nice! So sad to see that nice H to the north moving 0ff to the east. If only it would stay put. Nice back end snows too.

  54. Holy smokes, Canadian really bombs out after that! 971 mb low in Gulf of Maine. All of SNE goes back to snow on the back side of the storm. Looks like we are back to the snowicane scenario.

        1. GFS is garbage. How do you end up with a moisture laden storm that strong and close to us, but have virtually no precip on the N and W sides? Doesn’t make sense to me.

        2. Usually when systems bomb out as they pass us on their way to the Gulf of Maine, they do NOT throw back much snow at all. Some snow squalls/showers on top of lots of glop.

          1. Agree, but the GFS doesn’t even have much in advance of the storm. All the heavy precip is displaced way to the east of the storm and shunted out to sea.

  56. One concern about the Euro and Canadian to me is the amount of snow they are delivering so close to the coast. Doesn’t seem to jive with the coastal hugger track. Though I guess with a system this potent, it can really draw down its own cold air as long as you are just N and W of the track.

    If I had to guess now, I would say we are going to be dealing with a situation similar to last week. Heavy up front thump of snow followed by a changeover (though to rain, not sleet). Best chance of staying all snow NW of a line along I-84, I-290 and I-495. Quickest changeover SE of BOS-PVD. Really too early to be talking rain/snow line at this point, but that’s my gut.

    1. I believe the Boston to Providence corridor is looking at much more rain this go around IMO it’s a close call, but looks like mostly rain to me, almost time for the nam 🙂

  57. Ahh the mysterious and mystical Providence to Boston corridor dividing line between arctic and tropical climates 😀

  58. I’ve weighed what I have seen applying what I know of this set up over the years and the opinions of models that actually matter at this distance from the start of the event, and today’s 12z GFS is my pick (at this point), not only with the storm but with the weather pattern through the middle of next week. One shot at a gulf system, otherwise quiet and cool pattern, though we do have a minor system likely to come through late Friday to early Saturday with some snow shower or snow squall activity not out of the question.

    1. TK …

      can you speak to the idea of why the precip output in our region doesnt seem proportional to the strength of the low pressure on the 12z GFS …

      Is it possible that the storm has occluded by the time it reaches our latitude and that our area is losing out on some of the warm/cold airmass clashes because its so wrapped up ?

    1. Kudos to them for being brave enough to put that much detail out to the public today. I’m not comfortable with that until tomorrow at the earliest.

      1. I agree, the way the winter has gone its to early to give that much detail. I posted it because I was surprised they did had the write up

    2. I don’t think he went out to far IMO, he basically said we either get snow to rain, or snow but less snow with a further out to sea track idk

  62. OS, I am reading at hour 84 the low is already down to 984mb, sitting right over Atlantic City. This track spells changeover to rain along the I-95 corridor but not before a heavy thump of snow. Inland areas are crushed. The big question is where does that R/S line set up? I’m not convinced the Euro has the right track. It is the far western envelope of all guidance, I think it will adjust east at 0z.

  63. From DT:

    *** ALERT *** 12Z MONDAY EUROPEAN MODEL HOLDS COURSE … DOES NOT FOLLOW THE TREND ….

    NOW SHOWS H.E.C.S Historic East Coast snowstorm ….

    SNOW AMOUNTS OVER CENTRAL VA / RIC INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY **

    HUGE snows for Western NC all of SW VA.. yes that means ROA… all of the Shenandoah valley…

    Roanoke to Charlottesville Waynesboro Staunton all the way up to Winchester and into Dallas Warrenton and Culpeper 18-24″ of snow
    Lynchburg into Martinsville and Danville farmville Fredericksburg Washington, DC Baltimore 12-15″ …

    Richmond to Raleigh 8 to 10 inches.. and the precip DOES chnage to sleet and rain in central VA thursday morning.

    again shift of 25 miles means RIC staysy all snow and get 15″

    12z Monday European model also has significant snow into eastern portions of West Virginia which the other models do not have and over Western Maryland.

      1. Agree, it doesn’t jive at all. Can’t see a track like that generating snow totals that high so close to the coast. Map is way overdone. And no friggin way the suburbs of Atlanta are getting 16″ out of this!

        1. If the suburbs of ATL get 16″ and we get 3″ theres something very wrong with that picture. Global warming!! LOL 😛

  65. That ECMWF snow map is impressive but it is seeing all of the precip that falls as now which is pretty odd, seeing that Boston, Worcester, Springfield all are 1.2-1.5 QPF and they spend the vast majority of the storm with surface, critical thickness, and 850 temps at or above freezing according to its own output. There are clear signs that ECMWF is having some issues with this this pattern. I think the is storm is a significant mixed bag type storm for most of SNE, but not a significant snow storm for the areas where most people live in SNE. That is the early call.

    With greater ridging in the west and the flow becoming less zonal I do see the opportunity for this to phase unlike most of our recent events, but if it does it is also going to lead to a warmer scenario because of the location of the eastern trough and the high to the northeast.

    2. or good !!!

      Heading for Cape Cod during early part of school vacation. An all rain, 38-43F storm down there Thursday might get the snow off of the par 3 golf courses. Love frozen ground golf …… hitting low line drives that roll 150-200 yards.

      Fore !!!

        1. Why would they allow themselves to be so miserable knowing the average climate in February?

          😀

          1. I have no idea tk, maybe its sorta like knowing it can snow in Feb, but when it actually does snow u still are like enough is enough, I guess, maybe hoping for an early spring, u and I both know the majority of New England residents want spring. Where human warm blooded 🙂

            1. Well there is a reason why the coldest, snowiest places on earth are mostly devoid of life. Warmth is life, plain and simple. Jungles are teeming with life everywhere. At least in NE, it gets hot in the summer.

  66. And after the euro we are still no closer to any idea what this will do. Timing looks delayed some too, now more of a thurs day into thurs nighttime event.

    1. MOVE IT TO FRIDAY so i don’t need to take my calc test and i get the weekend to study a little bit more

  68. I am going to try to get a hint on this tonight. Today’s 12z runs were the first thing I have looked at weather related since Friday’s 12z’s so I don’t have a real good pull either way right now, but I do no that the 12z ECMWF looks confused to me and you know what ECMWF confusion leads to – mass forecaster paralysis!

  69. SLOPORAMA the one word I have for this storm should we get which is looking more and more likely that we will see something. I am thinking front end thump of snow. Coast goes mixorama to rainorama. Inland after snow thump goes to mixorama.

  70. AceMaster if its a coastal hugger I will get few to possibly several inches of snow then a mix and maybe plain rain towards to the tail end. This is going to be heavy wet snow and add a mix and rain on top of that UGH!!!

  72. We need one of those red hurricane cones for the track of this storm.

    I’m half serious, the outcomes are hugely dependent on whether this thing would be on left side, right side or directly down the middle.

  74. *18Z NAM disclaimer and out to the end of its run* (should i just stop here? lol)

    It is a colder run. Serious snows in eastern VA into the DC area but also brings a very sharp cutoff of 6+” snow into boston but no further east or south

    1. They always find some excuse. First we were told to be ready for winters with no snow…then when they got colder and had more snow, that was a side effect too. Then it was summers would be hot all the time…when they were cool, that was global warming too. Can’t have it both ways. My theory: it’s beyond arrogant to think we can alter weather. The earth has been hot and cold and will continue to do so with or without us. As Van Halen said…right now, we are living between ice ages.

  77. Yes it would be Mark. Plenty more model runs to go but the out to sea solution is looking less and less likely. I have felt since yesterday we would have some sort of impact with this storm system.
    We might have winter storm Easton here in CT if the EURO and latest NAM model run are correct.

    1. OTS is no longer on the table Jimmy. It will either be mostly snow or snow to rain especially I-95 corridor here in SNE at least.

  78. PREFERENCE: MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
    NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
    208 PM EST MON FEB 10 2014

    VALID FEB 10/1200 UTC THRU FEB 14/0000 UTC

    ==============================================
    12Z MODEL EVALUATION AND PREFERENCES
    ==============================================
    NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT APPEAR TO
    SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THEIR LARGE SCALE OUTPUT.
    ==============================================

    …EASTERN U.S. CYCLONE AND WINTER STORM…

    PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 12Z NAM/GFS/UKMET
    CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

    ON THE LARGE SCALE A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM CERTAINLY APPEARS IN
    ALL OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. PRECIPITATION IS FOCUSED INITIALLY
    ALONG A MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE ORIENTED WEST TO EAST. LOW PRESSURE
    THEN DEVELOPS ALONG THE GULF COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND TRACKS
    TO JUST OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC/DELMARVA TO NEW JERSEY BY
    THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALL OF THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ARE
    PLAUSIBLE…BUT THERE ARE VERY MEANINGFUL STRENGTH/TRACK
    DIFFERENCES. OUR PREFERENCE IS BASED ON TRENDS IN SOME OF THE
    TIMING/STRENGTH/TRACK DETAILS. THE PAST TWO RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE
    BEEN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TRACK ENVELOPE WHILE ALSO BEING VERY
    STRONGLY DEVELOPED WITH THE SURFACE LOW. THE OPERATIONAL MODEL
    CONSENSUS IS TOWARD A LOW TRACK THAT IS MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE
    SOUTH ACROSS GEORGIA AND ADJACENT STATES ON DAY 2…AND THEN
    FARTHER EAST…SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE ON DAY 3. GIVEN THAT THE PARENT
    UPPER WAVE IS INITIALLY OF VERY LOW AMPLITUDE AND EMBEDDED IN FAST
    ZONAL FLOW…WE PREFER THE NON-ECMWF CONSENSUS. WE OMITTED THE
    CANADIAN FROM THIS CONSENSUS AS ITS SOLUTION IS SLIGHTLY FAST.

    THE NAM/GFS ARE LIKELY NOT PERFECT…BUT THEY HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
    THE ENSEMBLE MEANS…ESPECIALLY FOR TRACK AND TIMING. IT IS WORTH
    NOTING THAT THERE IS EVIDENCE FROM MULTIPLE RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND
    THE LATEST UKMET…AS WELL AS SEVERAL 12Z GEFS MEMBERS…THAT THE
    LOW LEVEL CYCLONE MAY DROP DEEPER THAN THE NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS BY
    14/00Z.

    AN IMPORTANT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAD NOT YET COME ASHORE
    INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS MORNING…SO SOME MARKED TRENDS MAY BE
    YET TO COME. THE 12Z NAM/GFS/UKMET…HOWEVER…ARE CONSISTENT WITH
    THE CURRENT TRENDS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS…WHICH GIVES US SOME
    CONFIDENCE IN RECOMMENDING THEM.

  81. Hmmmm

    12Z 15KM FIM comes in at more to the East:

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2014021012/236/3hap_sfc_f078.png

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2014021012/236/3hap_sfc_f084.png

    Total qpf not all that impressive compared with the other models, still something.

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2014021012/236/3hap_sfc_f090.png

    Also noteworthy. This is the Farthest West for this model.

    Everything seems to be lining up for pretty much a benchmark system.

    This could be the Grand Daddy for this season????????? 😀 😀 😀

      1. I think we better be double-fisted on this one Vicki. And if the hair dryers don’t work well then we can always double-fist something else. Like those cups of “tea”.

  83. I just think a storm with that low of a pressure would be a snow storm for many of is. Curious to see tracks overnight tonight as the data should be better sampled.

  84. weather models are starting to give me headaches, they are still all over the place.
    rain or snow. alot or less … One thing all models are hinting at is alot of wind nam has us with a good dumping of snow. west of i95 with less east. gfs has it out to sea with light to moderater snow event.

  85. god darn im sorry but some of my freinds on facebook are idiots i can’t believe they would believe northeast storm center involved college graduated mets. I laughed.. Im hoping they are just tring to pull my tail.

  89. I wouldn’t quite say the GFS is weak…..it’s got a 984 mb low near the benchmark with some pretty good winds and cold enough for snow for most. It’s just really light on the precip.

  90. Some thoughts ……

    1) remember that low that bombed out as it passed Dec. 2012 ? I think as it went by, the rain turned to heavy wet snow from south to north. At one point, it was snowing in Falmouth, Hyannis and Chatham and it was still raining in Marshfield and Boston.

    2) dry slot potential for SE Mass lowering precip amts if track is a bit further west

    3) climatology for time of year and this cold winter has the ocean quite cold. Plus, SE Mass is decently snow covered, so, I cant see it being too mild even in SE Mass. I think its going to be a chilly storm with most any track. Its not like its November where the ocean is 50F, there’s no snow on the ground and the air temps within 30 miles of the coast are in the low-mid 40s before you blink ….. It truly will be about the column above us and with dynamics and heavy precip, I think this event could crank out more wet snow, closer to the coast, on a coastal hugger than usual.

    1. I agree Tom but don’t think this ends up as a true coastal hugger – it will shift east and probably land somewhere near or just inside the benchmark

  91. I think we’ve been spoiled, we r already above average, I actually wouldn’t mind a rainstorm to wash some of this dirty salt and melt some of the snow 🙂

      1. I do see your concern, especially where you live, down here in the Foxboro to N.Attleboro area we have about 6 inches of snow, and by Thursday probably be down around 3 inches, so here I’m not to concerned, but where you r, I think you have 10 inches if not a foot of snow, and you r on the line of more snow or rain.

  93. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/95S/imagery/vis-animated.gif

    While we wait for the next set of model runs ….

    This entity …. over land on the NW part of Australia. It was over the water a couple days ago, but looks healthier now over land. This is the 2nd such event like this to sit over NW Australia, maintaining a rather healthy circulation, in the last month. I cant imagine what some of the rain intensity must be like under these t’storms.

    2. I saw a whole bunch of such storms enter NW Australia in the 1990s. There were some impressive rainfall amounts.

      There was also a very rare occasion once when a TC made landfall over a hot/dry area in Australia and actually intensified for a few hours over land because of the intense heat and flat ground that simulated a very warm ocean surface.

  95. Sorry, Vicki and Sue, I’ve been distracted. My cat has diabetes (of course she does…). Anyway, I’m there with two hairdryers. And I’ll bring a bottle of wine, just in case. It can snow all it wants next week.

      1. Oh, with insulin shots, twice a day. My poor little kitty-it’s beyond insane! But actually, I guess in cats, diabetes can reverse itself so keep your fingers crossed. But don’t drop those hair dryers!

        1. Thanks Deb. We can make this happen. And my neighbor has a cat that had diabetes and last I heard it did reverse itself. I’m hoping for the same with yours.

  96. Oh my goodness. So, I just liked theweatherspace.com on Facebook.

    WORSE THAN DT. But OH so entertaining.

    Trash talk over. TK rules.

    1. DS, I hope they (theweatherspace.com) don’t take themselves too seriously!

      “Most Reliable Model Projecting A March 1993 like Super Storm Nor’easter For The Eastern United States”
      Disclaimer – for entertainment use only!

    1. I feel for whatever area that falls in the overlap region of heavy wet snow accumulation greater than 6 inches with moderate winds that occasionally gust. That was SE Mass’ fate last Feb 10th, but I have a feeling it could be inland’s turn this time.

      1. When your talking heavy wet snow throw in some gusty winds then your talking about some power issues. I am not
        saying that will happen but something to keep in mind.

        1. I guess PA and MD got clobbered last Wednesday with an ice storm (during our snowstorm) that caused extensive, long lasting power outages. I had a cousin without power for 2.5 days and a high school friend reporting a 5 day outage as of yesterday.

          Based on our experience last Feb, if tomorrow’s runs begin to show more agreement and identify an area that could get buried in wet snow and see decent wind, I would encourage people who would be in that area to think if they are set to deal without power for a few days, because I found ourselves initially scurrying around to kind of figure out what to do in a situation that I didnt really see coming.

              1. Irene was the biggest amount of power outages for the state of CT. Prior to that it was
                hurricane Gloria. Then came the October Noreaster and that ended up causing the
                biggest amount of power outages for CT. Amazing two storms 8 weeks apart and the
                record number of power outages they both produced.

            2. We lost power for both also. Wasn’t it GREAT. And then again after Sandy the next year. This time of year is dicey because pipes freeze.

              1. We lost power for both as well, 5 days and 4 days respectively. We have a generator, but would prefer not to use it.

  98. I am surprised NWS out of Taunton removed the hazardous weather outlook since it is looking more and more likely that there will be some impact from this storm system.

  100. I think we have it nailed. It could be rain; it could be snow; or it could mix. The storm could be intense, but it might be moderate but only if it isn’t weak. Seems clear to me.

  101. Well, well …. Look at the 00z nam …. Over, maybe even SE of the benchmark …. Looks like a cold solution.

    With this said, I have no idea what the 12z said late this morning, so I have no idea if this is a repeat of that run or what.

      1. Wow … What in the world was the pressure on the 12z run earlier today … It seems like its 990mb falling through the 980s as it moves away on the 00z.

    1. On the radar reflectivity, it looks like the heaviest precip clips SE mass and Cape around hrs 63-69, but I’ll bet with the strong ENE flow, the NAM presumes it to be non accumulating wet snow/cold rain and only accumulates the snow on the departing back side in the 69-81 hr time frame.

  103. Well, the 00z GFS will probably reinforce the NAM and then the 00z EURO will come out and take the storm up over Philly and Albany, NY and life in the weather world will be just wonderful. Good night.

  104. I think our “February to remember” will not be so memorable, other than the incredible amount of hype over at TWC and other places (and that includes the coming storm). We’ll remember the cold beginning. It’s definitely been well below normal. We’ll also sort of remember the storm on the 5th of February, but only as a fleeting memory. And then we’ll likely have no memory of the rest of the month as it meanders from minor event to some more cold to a warm-up to another minor event to a return to relatively tranquil conditions with normal temperatures.

  109. Yawn…..Morning, I think.

    Looking over the guidance this morning, it sure is looking like a SNOW to RAIN
    event in all coastal areas with all snow confined to pretty well inland. Virtually ALL
    of the models take the system inside the benchmark. Also, they are ALL LOADED with
    moisture, some more than others. Actually the NAM gives Boston the most snow, the GFS hardly any.

    Here are some initial maps:

    0Z Euro:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=ecmwf&run=00&stn=PNM&hh=072&map=na&stn2=TT850&run2=00&mod2=ecmwf&hh2=072&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    06Z NAM:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=06&mod=nam&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=nam&stn2=PNM&hh2=060&fixhh=1&hh=066

    06Z GFS

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=06&mod=gfs&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=gfs&stn2=PNM&hh2=066&fixhh=1&hh=072

    0Z UKMET

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=096&fixhh=1&hh=072

  111. I would say a shift of about 50 miles south and east in storm tracker heavier snow totals for the I -95 corridor. Right now this is looking like an interior snowfall and a big MESSORAMA for I -95 corridor south and east with snow to rain and then maybe back to snow as the low moves away and brings in some colder air.

  112. What’s with the Euro? It looks to go over the canal.

    It looks to dump some snow and then rainorama and well inland to boot.
    850 temps go way above freezing all the way out to Worcester and a bit beyond.

    The wundermap is all f’d up. It shows a snow map at 75 hours with Boston getting
    10 inches, yet 850MB temps are above freezing.

    Hadi to you have the Euro snow map? total qpf?

    I’ll post from the Wundermap.

    http://i.imgur.com/diEVPxA.jpg?1

      1. I do NOT trust it anymore.

        Yes, I understand. Just reporting how F’d up it is!!!

        Blend of NAM,GFS,CMC and FIM gets you to what’s going to happen. SNOW TO RAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  113. We are all so focused on the Thursday storm (as we should be) …… Watch the Friday night/Saturday morning event sneak up and get some area good with snow. 🙂 🙂

  116. The TV met snow maps are all over the place. One has snow/rain line outside 495, one between 495 and 128, and one inside 128. As you can imagine, the snow maps vary accordingly.

  117. There IS no superior model right now…..

    ………if we HAD to give an award…for performance this winter…

    *hesitating*

    ….we’d probably..have to pick.. the.. (ugh)..

    …..

    GFS

    …

    There, I said it.

    2. Unbelievable, Eh?

      Tk where do you think the track goes?

      Outside BM, BM, inside BM, Cape, Canal, Boston, Worcester, Hartford, Albany????

      😀 😀 😀 😀

      ALL probably in the cards.

      1. Even though my instinct has been telling me all along to watch for a system that is suddenly further east and weaker than modeled, I cannot ignore the recent trends, so at this point, yes anything can still happen. I just don’t know. And in the update I am about to do to the blog, the forecast will reflect that…

  118. AS JJ points out, a small shift to the East and even Boston is into a
    SNOWOEAMA. The most recent trends, however, are to the WEST.

    It will probably end up an INSIDE RUNNER going up over Albany as someone
    posted above (Tom?)

    It could still shift again, we’ve seen it before.

    I just don’t like the uncertainty of virtually every storm this Winter.

    I will say one thing: I think we here on WHW, are pretty tuned into what’s
    UP, what the potential is and what changes could take place.

  120. This morning’s thoughts …… 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

    I’m siding with a snowy outcome ….. even if the thing eventually tracks up over SE Mass.

    Cant ignore good dynamics, heavy precip potential and the coldest climatological point in the year of the ocean.

    Wouldnt it be great to get a good 4-7 inch slug of wet snow and then, along the coast and in SE Mass, as its about to change to a cold rain for a while, the dry slot comes up and over the area.

    1. Tom, I’m on board with your forecast prediction, especially the dry slot!!!
      If it’s going to change to rain on the coast, then I wish it OTS!
      Why not let the fish have some fun!!!

  121. Shirley Temple, who rose to fame as arguably one of the most famous child actresses in Hollywood history, has died, according to her publicist. She was 85.

  122. The blog has been updated.

    You may begin your speculations, fantasizing, and commentary again over there. 😉

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