Special Extended Outlook

103 Comments

11:19AM

The weather pattern during the next 9 days will be better than you are being lead to believe by some. There will be some humidity, and though I realize that some like that, the majority prefer it a little drier, and the drier air will be the dominant of the 2 varieties during this time. The most humid weather will come during part of the middle of next week, a time when a more southwesterly flow will transport that humidity up into the Northeast before a couple weak cold fronts drive it away again. It’s also a fairly warm pattern, after a brief cool shot which is now ending. Though there is no very high heat in sight, a few areas may be hitting 90 for the first time on one or 2 days. This extra extended outlook will include highlights and a forecast for this weekend and next week including the 4th of July weekend.

Weather systems:

High pressure builds over the region this weekend, and with warm air coming in aloft some high cloudiness will present itself at times today and Sunday, along with some fair-weather cumulus popping up during the afternoon hours each day from the sun’s heating. These will not grow enough to produce showers. So, a great weekend – plenty of sun, warmer air, but not humid.

“Work week” weather: Not a full work week for everyone. In fact, some of us only have a one-day work week (Monday – ahem ahem). Heat and humidity tweak up a notch Monday as a west to southwest flow becomes established, though it will still be quite tolerable. The Tuesday-Thursday period will be the most humid, especially Wednesday. A series of fairly weak cold fronts will move through the region during these 3 days, each with the possibility of setting off isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. But it appears to me that most of the “energy” for activity will pass to the north of the region, limiting the ability to pop lots of organized activity. Timing of boundaries will influence activity. In fact, by Thursday afternoon, the last of these may be already moving away and we may start to dry out earlier than some computers currently indicate.

Fourth of July Weekend: I know it’s a long way off, but right now it looks like it will turn out pretty decent overall. The most likely scenario is warm/dry weather for much of the time, especially the holiday itself on Friday. But with the pattern still the type that keeps the mean ridge centered over the middle of the US, there is always room for troughs to come scooting along through the Great Lakes and Northeast, and a small one may do just that at some point next weekend with a period of clouds and a possible shower/t-storm. But to try to pin-point such an event 8 days out would be just silly, so suffice it to say that the holiday weekend looks decent overall, with perhaps an interruption or 2 somewhere.

Day-by-day forecast (with less detail and confidence late in the period)…

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 80-86, 70s coast/beaches. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 55-60 except 60-65 urban centers and coast. Wind light variable.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 81-87, 70s to near 80 coast/beaches. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Low 66. High 88.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon t-storms. Low 67. High 89.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated morning showers. Scattered afternoon t-storms. Low 68. High 89.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated morning to midday showers/t-storms. Low 68. High 87.

FRIDAY – INDEPENDENCE DAY: Partly cloudy. Low 63. High 84.

WEEKEND: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers/t-storms possible but rain-free most of the time. Lows 60-65. Highs 80-85.

103 thoughts on “Special Extended Outlook”

  2. Thanks tk. I work four days than off for twelve days and I can’t wait . Let’s keep it dry for fifth for my party. Enjoy your time off starting Monday night.

    2. Thanks TK. My daughter is having her youngests family bday. Bday was march but with everything happening we haven’t had time so im hoping for a nice 5th too for the bounce house

  3. Thanks TK! Based on your forecast it looks like near perfect temps considering the time of year. It could be much worse in terms of heat/humidity. Hopefully much of the summer will be like this. I guess we will see.

    Also TK – Can you define the following terms as far as shower coverage? Thanks in advance. 🙂

    1. “Isolated”
    2. “Scattered”
    3. “Numerous”
    4. “Widespread”

    1. Isolated..under 25% coverage.
      Scattered..25-50% coverage.
      Numerous..50-75% coverage.
      Widespread..greater than 75% coverage.

  4. Thank tk, average high is 82-83 degrees, looks like we will be slightly above that for the coming week. Have a good weekend!!

    1. You mean the ferocious Capes and Lifted Index are full of S**T? 😆

      CMC has almost totally backed off any kind of severe event.

      GFS is still holding onto it. 😀

    1. The EURO sends it in right over Wilmington, NC next Saturday and towards southern New England after that.

      I thought when we rescheduled to July, I’d see 100F …… I wasnt thinking I’d have a shot at a tropical system.

      1. 1,000-1,001 mb …..rising to 1,005 mb at southern New Enland coastline.

        Well, lets see if its shown in future runs and if so, what is the trend in the pressure ?

  7. Speaking of warm water ….

    Light SE seabreeze today, loads of sun and a warmer airmass ….

    Boston harbor buoy at 2:50pm has a shallow layer of warm water ….

    67.5 F !!!!!!!!

  9. Seems 86 was high here but a glorious 86. TK will you be fireworks watching after Monday? I hope you have wonderful time off

    2. Wednesday: Lexington.
      Thursday: Danvers.
      Friday: Boston.
      Saturday: Wilmington.

      🙂

  13. Personally I think we have a better chance of it raining bowling balls than that coming up and hitting us IMO 🙂

    1. I was thinking more of North Carolina and Virginia. Hitting new England would be a Longshot.

  14. Thanks TK!!

    What a splendid week and half of weather. 4 days in Newport were perfect and 7 days in Chatham. Only hiccup was Thursday and it wasn’t even that bad. I posted some pics on FB for anyone interested in seeing the vacation photos. The wedding was absolutely perfect.

    Pattern looks great apart for small hiccups here and there. Precip has been low and I think it will continue. Mild to moderate draught will be an issue soon.

  15. ok so went to salisbury beach on Friday. Water was not that bad for this time of year. honestly think its warmer than average… well thats what my body was telling me. 😀
    going to the cape tuesday/wednesday. There better not be any bad weather on wednesday. Going to a beach that I have loved since i was literally 2 years of age and 19 years later. I still love it. Its a small beach called skacket in Orleans. 😀
    If you have small children but also want to go to nauset beach. go to skaket park there go to nauset by bus and then go back to skacket for sunset and make sure you have a camera. Also allows skim boards 🙂 Again all might weather gods. NO RAIN ON WEDNESDAY 😀

  16. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    When is hail considered severe?
    A. When pea sized
    B. Makes contact with the ground
    C. Is ¾” in diameter
    D. When it dents cars

    Answer later today.

        1. Regardless of the answer, I have never heard of hail specifically as being “severe” or at any other level for that matter.

  18. Today’s 2nd AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    What are you afraid of when you suffer from lilapsophobia?
    A. Thunder and lightning
    B. Dust storms
    C. Hurricanes and tornadoes
    D. Earthquakes

    Answer later today.

    2. hmmm – haven’t a clue either….what does lilap mean?

      Lilacs? Oh, that wasn’t a choice.

      Well I’ll say B then

      Thank you Longshot

  22. CMC Lifted Index for Wednesday:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=LI&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=LI&hh2=084&fixhh=1&hh=090

    CMC CAPE

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&stn=CAPE&hh=090&map=na&stn2=LI&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&hh2=090&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    CMC CAPE for THursday

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=CAPE&hh2=090&fixhh=1&hh=114

    CMC Lifted Index for Thursday

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&stn=LI&hh=114&map=na&stn2=CAPE&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&hh2=114&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    Like I said before, I begin to get worried when multiple models are on board and NOW
    they are!

      1. We’re NOT making predictions, just sharing the model output, which right now looks pretty scary.

          1. Oh and that was 8:00 pm. Can’t tell timing on my phone but can tell you are as always correct that it looks scary.

            1. With daylight saving time, 0Z becomes
              8PM, 21Z is 5PM and 18Z is 2PM.

              Those are the maine 3 time periods we focus in on for thunderstorms, especially the 21Z time frame.

    2. Just took a look at the Euro. Hmmm
      Not nearly as impressive at all.

      Capes 500-15oo in the area.

      So, we shall see. Perhaps it’s just the Crappy Euro since the upgrade.

  25. I believe we will find that not only will that tropical cyclone be a non-factor other than eventually kicking up surf, but may actually help improve the weather around here later in the week.

      1. EHI Index

        > 1 Supercell potential
        1 to 5 up to F2, F3 tornadoes possible
        5+ up to F4, F5 tornadoes possible

        We would be in a solid 2 zone.

          1. Oh this is not good. OS I admit to having a mush mind. I’m too busy managing care for mac that the healthcare system seems unable to do so can’t focus on much else. Do you mind telling me if there is an approximate timing on this stuff for Wednesday. We won’t be back from the afternoon long appointments in Boston until about 7:00 pm. I’m worried enough about managing getting mac in and out of my car and there and back without supercell activity. Thank you very much

      2. Lifted index of -10 to -12 and CAPE at 4000

        Not sure I have ever seen that since watching these indices.

        Not to say this will actually be the case, but these
        are Damn IMPRESSIVE severe weather parameters!!!

  27. I feel like the trend the past few years has been a close call with at least 1 early season tropical cyclone or some kind of tropical entity

  30. The instability parameters almost always look impressive on model runs a few days before the event. Reality shows those forecast to be much overdone.

    This will be the case yet again.

    1. Have particularly noticed that this year, however, it is noteworthy when they
      ALL show it. Looking at early returns of CMC, it looks like it has backed off.

      We shall see.

  32. 12Z CMC Cape for Wednesday

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=CAPE&hh2=090&fixhh=1&hh=084

    Lifted Index

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=LI&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=LI&hh2=078&fixhh=1&hh=084

    12Z CMC Cape for Thursday

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=CAPE&hh2=108&fixhh=1&hh=102

    Lifted Index

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=12&stn=LI&hh=102&map=na&stn2=CAPE&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&hh2=102&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

  33. Repost.

    Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    When is hail considered severe?
    A. When pea sized
    B. Makes contact with the ground
    C. Is ¾” in diameter
    D. When it dents cars
    ____________________________________
    Today’s 2nd AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    What are you afraid of when you suffer from lilapsophobia?
    A. Thunder and lightning
    B. Dust storms
    C. Hurricanes and tornadoes
    D. Earthquakes

    Answers later today.

  34. 12Z Euro is in. Severe parameters up from 0Z run last night, but still not
    comparable to the other 12Z runs. Still needs to be watched.

  39. Question to those with has grills. Do you shut off the tank after each use? We always do but I left open last night accidentally and SIL seems to think it empties the tank. If the burners are off I don’t see how tank can empty

    1. If burners are off it doesn’t empty. I turn off at the tank and leave burners on to get all gas out of the line and then shut the burner knobs off.

  40. Should be fine. Do not leave that valve open period!!!!! I’m a fanatic on this, knobs off valve off. Believe it or not a lot don’t turn off valve.

  41. I agree with John, but yes it happens.
    Ironically I just bought a new grill last week and a new tank for it today.
    All set to go for the remainder of the Summer with my new friend, Weber. 😉

      1. Weber Spirit E-210.
        I know about 4 people who got them this year and they all love it.

        Been eying it for a while. My old propane tank which became “outdated” last November was almost out of fuel so I waited for that, knowing I needed a new tank as well.

        1. I’ve said before that my parents always had webers….well before gas grills were around. IMHO there is none better. Enjoy TK and thanks for weighing in

        2. Can’t go wrong with any webber, enjoy . At a party in Bridgewater and very nice breeze here.

    1. Sorry not tk but he said earlier not worried about it and actually said it could better the weather here .

    2. 100%. But wait, there’s more!

      I think the storm itself will eventually pass offshore, especially if it moves northward at the faster pace the current guidance has. And what that may end up doing is taking away available moisture for the front to work with, improving the forecast later Thursday and Friday. It remains to be seen, since the tropical low can end up burying itself for a while. If it marks time, it could end up with a chance to run up the coast Sunday or Monday (July 6-7) but that’s not very likely.

      As for it impacting the region with a soaking rain… Not a high chance based on how I see these scenarios.

  43. I’ve updated the blog. The latest post is called “The Week Ahead” and well, it covers the next 7 days, with the scenario that I feel is most likely.

    But I warn you, despite the sound of the blog, it’s not a high confidence forecast right now, so stay tuned. 🙂

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