Hi July!

305 Comments

9:43PM

The middle month of Meteorological Summer is underway, and starts with several important days for outdoor activity leading up to and through the Fourth of July Weekend. Weather, always critical to plans, becomes even more so during such a period. Instead of launching into a marathon-read, I’ll get to the point with what I expect to take place through the week and into early next week.

We’ve established a very warm, humid southwesterly flow which will last into Thursday. A cold front will approach from the west and slow down through Thursday then slowly slide across the region early Friday. Timing and positioning of this front will be the big decider of what happens here. In addition, the forecast of Tropical Storm Arthur (possibly even a minimal hurricane) is critical. This early-season tropical system is expected to move northward from the US Southeast to Middle Atlantic Coast through Thursday then turn northeast and accelerateΒ  into the waters just southeast and east of New England during Friday (Independence Day). What hasn’t changed with the thinking is that Arthur will stay just far enough offshore to only impact Cape Cod and the Islands with some rain and a gusty breeze for a while, with little or no impact elsewhere. What has changed a little bit is that I now feel that the cold front will stall for a while to the northwest of the Boston area. This front, which will set off scattered thunderstorms well to the west and northwest of Boston Wednesday afternoon, will do the same again Thursday and again they may remain well to the west, finally ambling across the region from west to east in weakened form later Thursday night and early Friday. This is a touchy and uncertain part of the forecast and will be monitored. Many towns have fireworks displays and other celebrations on July 3, so this forecast is important. Regardless of the front and Arthur, it appears we’ll end up with a wonderful couple days of weather Saturday and Sunday, seasonably warm and dry, with lots of sun both days. Heat returns early next week along with a thunderstorm threat as the next front approaches.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Partly cloudy. Mild and muggy. Lows 65-73. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy and hazy. Hot and humid. Highs 77-85 South Coast, 86-92 elsewhere Wind SW 10-15 MPH gusting 20-25 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy and hazy. Warm and humid. Lows 66-74. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Greater chance of showers/storms north central MA and south central NH late day or evening, pushing eastward later at night. Warm and muggy. Highs 70sΒ  South Coast/Cape Cod, 80s elsewhere. Wind SW to S 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY – INDEPENDENCE DAY: Cloudy start with showers/rain southeastern MA. Clearing trend west to east afternoon. Lows 65-70. Highs 80-85 except 70s Cape Cod.

SATURDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Lows 60-65. Highs 80-85.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 63-68. Highs 83-88.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 65-70. Highs 85-90.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Lows 70-75. Highs 85-90.

305 thoughts on “Hi July!”

  1. Thank you TK!

    What are you thoughts on the “Predecessor Heavy rain event” the NWS
    keeps mentioning? Is it a possibility. Judging by your forecast, It seems you
    don’t agree at all.

    πŸ˜€

    1. I do not believe it will materialize to the full extent of what we can see. The boundary may be too far west to focus much of anything in eastern MA, then get pulled eastward during a lull in the activity overnight, minimizing the impact. There may be more heavy rain further to the west. It will all depend on the boundary position.

  3. This is probably one of your best worded blog posts, TK. And I am also a huge fan of the title. πŸ˜‰

    It was beautiful today, and I loved the summer breeze. πŸ™‚

          1. Our school graduation song was “Let it Be’ but “We May Never Pass This Way Again” by S&C came in second….My choice “School’s Out” didn’t make the final cut ;(

            1. I love the song “Let It Be” but I’m not sure it’s a great graduation song.

              Your choice was right to the point. πŸ˜‰

  4. Is anyone here familiar with the children’s TV show Arthur? Well, the name of this storm made me think of it, which of course made the theme song pop in my head…but want to know the irony? These are the lyrics…

    Everyday when you’re walking down the street
    And everybody that you meet
    Has an original point of view

    And I say HEY! (HEY!)
    What a wonderful kind of day.
    If you can learn to work and play
    And get along with each other

    You got to listen to your heart
    Listen to the beat
    Listen to the rhythm
    The rhythm of the street
    Open up your eyes
    Open up your ears
    Get together and make things better
    By working together!

    It’s a simple message and it comes from the heart
    Believe in yourself (in yourself)
    cause that’s the place to start (to start)

    And I say HEY! (HEY!)
    What a wonderful kind of day
    If we can learn to work and play
    And get along with each other.
    Hey what a wonderful kind of day hey!

      1. The only baby arriving book my girls could find for big siblings was the Arthur book the remembered. All others were too graphic. Love Arthur

        1. The author of Arthur was from Hingham and I think he moved away about 10-15 years ago. I also loved watching the show with my kids when they were little.

  7. Tomorrow’s sunrise (5:12 am) will already be 5 minutes later than it was on the summer solstice (5:07 am). I have always wondered why we lose sunrises so much quicker than sunsets. πŸ™ The current sunset at 8:25 pm will last awhile yet until after the holiday weekend I believe…a mixed blessing.

  10. Arthur picking up a little steam with winds at 60MPH. Beginning its northern trek at 5-6 MPH. Boston Pops fireworks schedule being reviewed today by many agencies.

  12. Slight risk of severe storms CT River Valley West today with latest SPC outlook. A new update comes in around 9AM this morning.
    Thunderstorm Impact Scale:
    Wind – Elevated
    Flooding – Low
    Hail – Low
    Tornado – Low

    1. I was thinking about Tom and family this morning also and am sure he is very aware. I hope it is a short and quick impact so they can get back to enjoying vacation.

    1. Its gonna be a tough call. Unfortunately, even today, too much uncertainty exists with the forecast and since this event takes so much planning and preparation they cant afford to make the decision last minute.

      1. They said the pops has hired an independent weather forecasting group (along with NWS) to make the decision.

  20. Thanks, TK.

    And Happy Birthday, Matt!

    Vicki – Best wishes and looking forward for Mac coming home on the 4th! πŸ™‚

    2. Vicki, I will keep you in my thoughts with hope for Mac’s return home by week’s end, or sooner! My best to the both of you.

  21. I think we see majority of our tropical cyclones early in the season this year and similar to Arthur in that it developed in a less typical location. With the apparent El nino setting up, the further we get into the summer storms will have a difficult time getting going in the usual lower latitude tropical areas out into the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean.

  22. Hmmm

    Sure looks like the trend with Arthur is more S&E of our area. Most models take
    it well off shore. However, the GFS & CMC have a closer pass and want to throw
    the rain shield up into the Boston Area and Westward a bit from there. The Euro
    and NAM take it way out while the hurricane models are in between.

    Here is the 0Z CMC with Arthur nearby at 0Z on July 4th. Yup, that’s 8PM. Then 2AM on the 5th.

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=078&fixhh=1&hh=072

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=084&fixhh=1&hh=078

  23. re: Convection today and tomorrow

    Ugh. After reading TK’s forecast and watching BB last night, it sure looks
    like Nothing severe in the Boston area, perhaps in far Western areas. Just looks
    like a soaker around here.

    We shall see. Waiting on 12Z runs. Don’t trust 06Z runs.

    Models do still show considerable instability, so we’ll have to wait and see.

    FAR far far LESS cloudiness today than yesterday, Sure looks like we eclipse 90
    today for the 1st time this year at Boston. πŸ˜€

    Installed 2 ACs yesterday and used em both.

    May install one more today.

    2. I never thought in Boston you would have to put ac’s in the windows, I really would have thought they would have updated them, I’ve also read in the paper that residents and companies r leaving some parts of Boston to seaport district for newer amenities,central air, amongst many other things, good day os πŸ™‚

      1. Huh?

        I’m talking about at home AND no we have not updated
        to central air. TOO expensive when I can pick up a window
        unit for $119. πŸ˜€

        1. I agree with you on that OS! The only reason we have central a/c is because our home has forced air and it was reasonable $ to install. Otherwise, we’d be putting in window units, too!

  24. A friend just emailed that they might move pops to Thursday????? I hadn’t heard that. Has anyone or is that just a rumor?

    1. I haven’t heard that yet. I highly doubt they move it up a day especially with thursday being a work day for many and chances of rain thursday night just as high as friday. If anything they move it to saturday.

    2. Thursday would make no sense as there could be much convective rains
      about. IF they move it, it SHOULD be to SATURDAY, IMHO. But who
      listens to me? No one!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! πŸ˜†

  25. Tk great job stating this tropical storm heading out to sea, all models r even further south and east, good day everyone πŸ™‚

    1. Charile, did you see my post?

      NOT all models are out to sea.

      Might it go out to sea? Yes.
      Might it be close enough to ruin the 4th? Yes.

      Again, NOT all models take it out to sea.

        1. Look, you may be correct, but where is all of the confidence coming from?

          Is it the Infamous CFS model???
          (Charlie Forecasting Syustem)

            1. So which model do you prefer?, because 2 good ones (GFS and CMC) have it passing close enough to get us wet?

              2 other good ones, Euro and NAM have it going so far out as to NOT get us wet.

              2 of the hurricane models have it going right in between. πŸ˜€

              Just curious.

              1. I’m going by many past times what these tropical system do, very typical for a tropical system to go out too sea, close but no cigar, I actually would like a hurricane, as for just rain ehhh it might rain, but I’m not excited for some rain, models have been pretty consistent on the outcome πŸ™‚

                2. I’ve seen them all os lol πŸ™‚
                  I see rain skirting us on a few models but some have it out to sea os, none have a hit, I’m playing the odds πŸ™‚

            2. A tropical system can be 100+ miles east of nantucket and still give eastern MA heavy rain

              1. I know am, but I’m saying hurricane or winds 60+ mph sustained, I’ve seen it rain many times, I haven’t seen high winds many times, I don’t think it’s happening, we shall see πŸ™‚

                1. We’re not saying 60+ mph winds, we’re saying that there is at least a 50-50 chance that there will be enough rain to wipe out the 4th festivities. We’re also hoping for an OTS solution. πŸ˜€

    1. Channel 4 has been the most bullish on Arthur from the beginning which is surprising

  27. Let’s face it if I wrong I’m wrong it’s happened before it will happen again, hope everyone has a great day, today’s gonna be brutal πŸ™‚

  28. Did I hear there’s another potential tropical system out there, so much for a quiet season

  29. From NHC at 8AM, re: Arthur

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH…95 KM/H…WITH
    HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
    HOURS…AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.

      1. The above was 03Z OR 11PM on Friday night, the 4th.

        WOW!! What graphics. LOVE IT!!!

        Thanks again ACE!!

    1. Thanks Ace.

      We shall see. So for the first time, Another MET has mentioned
      the Predecessor Heavy Rain Event. Hmmm

      He’s seems to be predicting a “RAIN SHADOW” between the PRE
      Event to our West and Outer Bands from Arthur to the East. πŸ˜€

          1. Yup. Doesn’t mean it will end up that way.
            Often times, dear ole Mother Nature throws
            a curve our way.

            None-the-less, it will be interesting to follow.

  32. YIKES!!!!!

    11AM obs at logan

    Temperature: 85
    Dew Point: 72

    *()!@&#*(&!*@&#*!&@*(#!*(@#&%^!&*@%#^!%$^%!@^#$

    The atmosphere is LOADED! Will there be a trigger to UNLOAD it?
    That is the big question.

  33. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE
    FAVORABLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD FARTHER EAST BY
    EVENING. WE CONTINUE TO INCLUDE EXTRA WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR
    STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL. WINDS ALOFT FAVOR A CONVECTIVE
    MODE OF MULTICELL LINES…SO WIND EVENTS ARE FAVORED OVER HAIL
    EVENT. NOTE THAT SPC HAS EXPANDED EAST THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR
    SEVERE WEATHER. WE HAVE ALSO EXPANDED CHANCE POPS A LITTLE EAST OF
    OUR PREVIOUS MANCHESTER-WORCESTER LINE.

    1. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.gif?1404314602304

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1300_wind.gif?1404314634961

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1300_hail.gif?1404314651081

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1300_torn.gif?1404314620291

      Now, sorry, but this flys in the face Terry Eliason’s take on conditions.

      Who ya gonna believe? Terry? OR the SPC?

      instability indices are way up there, so we shall see.

      1. Sorry, the chart identifier is in the URL

        First is overall severe
        2nd is wind
        3rd is hail
        4th is tornadoes.

        Sorry about that.

  34. I think Arthur will stay far enough southeast of here to only have an impact on marine activity. I’d expect the models that are a little further west like the GFS to move towards the Euro’s solution. Hopefully I’m right, as a shift west could mean trouble. The Euro was the model that first caught onto the potential up the coast movement so I am trusting it over the GFS.

    1. The Euro is a piece of CRAP right now. I’d lean towards the GFS before
      I would trust the Euro. πŸ˜€

      1. Why is it crap? Lol, I’ve been gone to the Cape for a few days with very limited Internet access so all I’ve really been able to do is check the models but that’s about it. I’m kind of out of the loop, does it seem to be messing something up?

        1. Seriously, this model just has NOT been the same
          since the supposed UPGRADE sometime ago now.

          Unless I have missed some sort of announcement
          on it.

  36. Arthur does look like he’s strength..Eye seems to be becoming much more defined and good out flow on satellite. I wonder if he’ll be an over achiever…

    1. He looks very healthy on satellite. About to hit some drier air to the north but if he makes it through that unscathed I would think there’s a good chance he’ll overachieve

    1. Old Salty that 5% chance of a tornado is just northwest of where I am in CT. Reading one of the discussions Hudson River Valley and CT River Valley the places to watch for possible tornado.

  41. OS,

    Is the HWRF a good model? Also would this system be more of an extra tropical system than a hurricane when it gets up here?

    2. I found this statement about the HWRF. It has also recently undergone major upgrades.

      HWRF: The NWS/Hurricane Weather Research Model. HWRF is a non-hydrostatic a coupled ocean-atmosphere model, will utilize highly advanced physics of the atmosphere, ocean and waves in one prediction system, providing unparalleled understanding of the science of tropical cyclone evolution. Its output gives meteorologists an analysis of the hurricane in three-dimensions from real-time airborne Doppler radar. It will make use of a wide variety of observations from satellites, data buoys, and hurricane hunter aircraft. No other hurricane model accesses this wide of a range of meteorological information. The GFDL and HWRF models are the only models that provide specific intensity forecasts of hurricanes.

  42. TJ,

    Don’t have the wind data from the 12Z run, but if you look at the 06Z run,
    it still has it as 85 knots (97.8 mph) nearing our latitude, so I would say yes!
    However, Hurricane force winds are confined to OFF SHORE.

    http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/hwrf/2014070200-arthur01l/slp13.png

    IS it a good model? Well the NHC uses it in conjunction with others including the
    GFDL. I’m sorry, but I can’t say which one is better.

  43. Severe Thunderstorm Warnings west of SNE. Now we wait and see what happens as a severe thunderstorm watch is up for a good portion of SNE till 9pm.

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    Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi Β· 1m
    Live broadcast of ECMWF… 30 miles further northwest at 24 hrs. Pressure 978.3 mb, max gust 94.6 kts. not quite as strong tho as 0z

  46. 30 hours.. 30 miles nw old position pressure 971.5 max 10 meter gust 111.2 kts 1 mb weaker than 00z

  47. Thanks for the information everyone. So the Euro maybe trending further west? But all models keep it off shore that’s the good thing.

  49. New Euro is pretty far north and west compared to the 0z run. I’m surprised at that shift, it actually gives us some pretty good rain this run, at least for eastern areas.

  50. Looking at pressure this is no different than our winter storms to be honest. By our latitude it won’t be more than a nor’easter.

  52. Does anyone know if the Boston 4th celebration has ever been postponed in its history? I remember a couple years ago with those nasty thunderstorms they didn’t postpone and that was in the forecast for many days prior.

    1. Yes, the fireworks portion has been rescheduled in the past to the following night. Doesn’t happen often.

  53. I think we get drenched and some gusts closing in on 40-50 mph. Bigger issues is SC And NC.

    1. Agree Hadi. If that run is correct, NC will bear the brunt with hurricane force winds and still a fairly slow moving system at that point to boot. Very unfortunate for their 4th of july celebrations.

  54. Hasn’t started a turn yet bc we have to see what happens once Arthur makes a landfall in SC. Too soon to assume anything Charlie.

  55. The only real difference with this run is more precip. Winds won’t be a tremendous issue.

  56. I wouldn’t get caught up at the potential gust speeds but rather the frequency of them. The winds are my house during Sandy and Irene were not high but they were frequent which caused a lot of damage in my neighborhood.

  57. Lets remember too, if we were saying the euro hasn’t been performing well and it was the easternmost outlier before this run, we cant jump on this run just yet. Need to see some consistency to see if this is a legit shift

  58. Joe Joyce ‏@JoeJoyceNECN Β· 11m
    GFS and Euro in agreement with heavy rain Friday night. Windy SE MA with tropical storm force gusts

  60. 12z CMC CAPE, Lift And EHI Values for tomorrow.
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=12&stn=CAPE&hh=033&map=na&stn2=LI&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&hh2=033&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=12&stn=LI&hh=033&map=na&stn2=CAPE&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&hh2=033&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=12&stn=EHI&hh=033&map=na&stn2=LI&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&hh2=033&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

  64. A lot of lightning with those storms as this cold front is slowly pushing its way east along with gusty winds.
    SPC already putting areas CT River Valley West in a slight risk again tomorrow for severe weather.

      1. Signature now gone. If it were a tornado, it didn’t last
        long. Hopefully it was not and it was just rotation aloft.

  65. That area was in that 5% chance for a tornado today. I will be watching that storm and seeing its progression. The storms have been on a northeast heading today. Hudson River Valley where Poughkepsie is along with CT River Valley were the areas in the SPC discussion talking about the possiblity of a tornado.

  66. Severe Thunderstorm Warning to the northwest of me here in Litchfield County. The storm you were talking about Old Salty out of Poukipsee NY the NWS feels this storm will maintain its strength as it moves northeast in Litchfield County. As I said before a lot of lightning with this line of storms along with heavy rain and gusty winds.

  68. Not sure about that decision at all??? Is it expected to rain now Saturday as well???

  69. Maybe there is a wind factor on Saturday which would not allow them to set off the fireworks?

  70. Uhhh, isn’t there a chance of storms tomorrow night too?

    Scott77 – I don’t think there will be rain on Sat. night, so I would have thought it would be better to postpone the concert ’til Sat. or even Sun. night. But, hey, what do I know.

  71. Sat night a better decision BUT you don’t know if the Pops musicians are available.

    1. That MUST be playing into the decision because anyone with 1/2 a brain
      would postpone until Saturday. πŸ˜€

  75. Just in from SPC:

    DISCUSSION…TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. HAVE CONGEALED INTO A BAND EXTENDING FROM SRN NH THROUGH WRN MA…NWRN CT…SERN NY TO NERN PA. THE AIR MASS WITHIN AND EAST OF THIS ONGOING BAND OF STORMS REMAINS STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KT SUPPORTING A CONTINUED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL.

    IF I read this correctly, then some Eastern Sections may yet be under the gun.

  76. Just in from the Taunton NWS office re: Thursday

    THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET
    WILL APPROACH DURING THE MORNING AND MOVE OVERHEAD IN THE
    AFTERNOON/EVENING. SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL AGAIN BE AROUND 2000
    J/KG WITH AN AXIS FROM NE MASS TO SW CT. WIND FIELDS WILL BE
    MARGINAL WITH 25 KNOTS AT 850 MB BUT 35-40 KNOTS AT 500 MB. AT
    THE VERY LEAST…THIS SUGGESTS SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. BUT THERE IS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL WIND TO CONSIDER ANOTHER ROUND OF DAMAGING WIND/LARGE HAIL FROM TSTMS. WITH THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY FARTHER EAST…THE TSTM THREAT WILL EXPAND ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MASS.

  77. Its getting dark out of my window now. Waiting for the line of storms to come through. No warning where I am as of now.

  78. My thoughts on moving up the Pop’s show to the 3rd is probably because they already have the rehearsal show scheduled, so everything is already in place including security. The Esplanade will not open until 5pm, which is the usual time for the 3rd. Good luck!

  79. Storrow Drive will be closed at noon on Thursday and the Mass. Ave Bridge will close at 6 p.m.
    The secure area on the Esplanade will not be opened until 5 p.m. Thursday but the rest of the park will remain open.
    If rain causes problems the fireworks could be postponed to Saturday but the concert would be cancelled.

  80. Flashes of Lightning outside my window with a severe thunderstorm warning up till 6:30pm

  81. The Pops and Beach Boys contracts dont extend beyond the 4th. You would think they would include an extention in the contracts for this purpose. Traffic in and around Boston will be a nightmare tomorrow and i could easily see the fireworks postponed till sat night anyways with rain and storms coming in tomorrow night around the scheduled start time

  83. Arthur just under hurricane strength with 70mph winds. Could be a cat 2 coming into the outer banks

  84. Greetings from Wilmington, NC ….. 92F with a 72F dewpoint. The biggest thing I am noticing is the strength of the sun, just much stronger than at home.

    Arthur : the local forecast seems to be for 25-30 mph sustained N winds, gusts possible to 45 mph. About 1.5 inches of rain. Both rain and wind to have a sharply decreasing gradient as you move just inland.

    Enjoy the storms at home, we experienced none on our trek south for which I am very happy.

  87. Logan hit 91 today…FINALLY!

    Hopefully the last and only one this summer? Probably not likely. πŸ˜‰

  88. Makes zero sense to move the Pops to the 3rd. The chance of T-storms and rain are much greater tomorrow night than Saturday. Tomorrow will be a nightmare, given that many people will be commuting. It’s not a day off – though many will take the day off. Most importantly, it’s not looking good at all for fireworks or any festivity tomorrow night, weather-wise. Move the event to Saturday. Forget about the Beach Boys. Pay them their gig fee, replace them with a local band (e.g., J Geils, Mighty Bosstones, Dropkick Murphy’s, Cars, some band’s available …) and have it happen on a pleasant evening (Saturday, July 5th).

    1. Daughter said there is a reason they can’t do sat….maybe the music? Either way I agree. I’m reading down so perhaps someone said this

  89. I don’t understand why the Pops Concert is not on Saturday night which should be fantastic weatherwise…no chance of storms, not even humidity. In fact, I will go out on a limb that the 5th should be considered a “top 10” day of the summer.

    Tomorrow night is going to be just as shaky as Friday. In fact, heavy rains are going to be more likely as the evening goes on especially in eastern sections.

    TK – Since you attend many of these fireworks any thoughts about the decision?

    1. The decision may not be all weather related. As mentioned above, you also have to consider the availability of the musicians. Doesn’t make it any better of a decision, but other factors could have been in the consideration set.

  90. EXCUSE ME!!!!!

    18Z GFS 03Z 11PM Friday night:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014070218&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=057

    NAM 0z or 8PM on the 4th:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014070218&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=054

    11PM the 4th

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014070218&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=057

    NAM has it going farther out but still pummels us with RAIN!!!!

    Hey Charlie, still think it is going out to sea?

  95. Been a while since I posted. Hey all! Well I spent the last hour clearing and cleaning my garage drain grate. I am ready!!!

    1. Nice. Keeping my fingers crossed for both of us and our basements! I have that system now but the sump pump was defective in March when it turned on for the first time.

  96. From JB

    @BigJoeBastardi: GFS/ Hurricane WRF really far west in NC now,runs from ILM to ECG. may suggest another west correction a bit, but not that much

    1. Sure, like he knows anything. Look at all of the snow events he absolutely
      blew to pieces! πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜†
      πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜†

  97. SPC does have CT River Valley west in slight risk. Will see what they say tomorrow morning when the update comes. I would not be surprised tomorrow if some places in SNE saw some strong to possibly severe storms once again tomorrow.

        1. Aquarion Continues Critical Ban on the Use of Irrigation Systems and Sprinklers in Hingham, Hull and North Cohasset
          June 30, 2014 – Aquarion Water Company today announced the continuation of a total ban on the use of all irrigation systems and sprinklers until further notice.

          Who the BLEEP is Aquarion? AND where do they get the Water? Sounds like HorseS**t to me. πŸ˜€

          1. Aquarion is the water service company for a lot cities and towns in Mass. They’ve come under a lot of fire for their policies, etc. Hingham is or was in the process of going out on there own. Think of Aquarion as the T of water systems πŸ™‚

            1. That’s about how I sized them up! πŸ˜€

              I feel for you.

              I don’t EVER recall having a water ban
              in Boston. Perhaps there was one here and there, but I can’t remember.

    3. Hingham has had one for irrigation systems for about a week now (meaning none at all). We can use handheld hoses which is not quite as good.

  100. Here are some of the forecasted storm surge areas.

    http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/psurge/

    Not long ago at hurricane conferences, many discussions surrounded Category definitions and more specifically the damage that could be caused. There was a realization that the effects of a Cat 2 in high density, highly urbanized area might be substantially worse than the damage of a Cat 3 in a rural area.

    In the face of global warming, much of the hurricane discussions today revolve around storm surge. NOAA and others launched a number of storm surge cameras a few weeks ago. We will undoubtedly see the video footage. (The cameras are actually inside “unsinkable” boxes.) If you scroll down a little, you will see a hurricane surge camera box here. http://hurricanetrack.com/page/4. Storm surge is the hot topic.

    1. Its pretty lame and they raised our water rates 35% last year to improve the water systems but i have yet to see any work done. I just water the lawn anyways, my neighborhood is good about it, we all have a dont ask dont tell policy, lol

        1. Yikes, thats pretty serious. We can at least water 2 nights a week from 6-8pm odd even numbered houses.

          1. We had that up until last week…now it’s just handheld…I was out with the hose for 2 hours the other night.

            1. While everyone worries about other shortages, Mac keeps saying no ones eye is on water and if we think that there is a price war for gas and oil, just wait for water.

    1. Too close for comfort I mean. Only time will tell if it actually will come that close. The trend right now is definitely further north.

  103. I would forget about the beach boys and change to Saturday. Total nightmare tomorrow night, traffic, weather etc…. The rain will be welcome for sure. And yes OS it’s not OTS for sure πŸ™‚

    1. I forgot about the Beach Boys 30 plus years ago πŸ™‚ I loved them back in the day…saw them live on the Common in 72 and they were great. Of course both Dennis and Carl Wilson were still alive and Al Jardine was still with them as well as Bruce Johnston.

        1. Nice…Brian Wilson was probably still playing live with them then before his breakdown. I remember reading that Glen Campbell took his place for a couple of tours back then.

      1. Luckily for me, I can take all sorts of back roads and avoid
        a disaster, I HOPE anyway. Happy Storrow drive is NOT my usual route!!!!

  104. In the future, the Pops should consider extending performers’ contracts to the 5th. An issue, not necessarily weather related could come up and force a cancellation at the last minute (overnight or early on the 4th). Most people come for the performers as much as the fireworks.

    Just a suggestion, but what do I know? Maybe I am totally off base on this.

    1. You’re not off base, you’re expressing reason and sound logic, unlike persons in charge of these things. πŸ˜€

      1. Reason and logic……..didnt those words get removed from the dictionary a few years ago πŸ˜‰

  105. Good evening all!

    Pardon my absenteeism today. I spent the day at Hampton Beach, and it was wonderful there. Light SSE breeze keeping the beach about 80 all day long. Lots of sun, some cumulus at times trying to reach the shore but dying from stability.

    By the time we left it was darkening in the W-NW. Saw some mammatus from the line of storms starting to die to the W. Its death cycle is nearly complete now. Cells will re-fire in isolated to scattered form tomorrow during the day, but an organized line will probably form over central MA and southern NH and not make it into Boston again, so most fireworks including the rescheduled Boston show should be ok.

    Irony, Danvers which I was going to be at tomorrow rescheduled to Saturday, Boston shuffled into the Thursday slot, still allowing me to go to both displays. If it’s dry enough in central MA I may drive there Friday night for any fireworks that are not cancelled. Sunday I will be going to Waltham or Swampscott, not sure yet.

    Yes I’m going to make the forecast wetter. It’s not working out the way I thought for Friday. Oh well. Nature rules, right? I’ll be updating the blog a little later.

    I am off to a fireworks display in Lexington in a short while. πŸ™‚

    1. We always loves the Lexington display. Our first apartment was opposite the area. Sounds as if you are having a perfect week for someone who loves fireworks.

    2. They still have that show! I went to the Lexington fireworks every year as a kid. That and the Strawberry Festival on the Bedford Common, with Square Dancing in the evening! Fond memories πŸ™‚
      Have fun, TK!

      1. Ohhhhhhh I had forgotten the strawberry festival. I only went a few times but yes ….very fond memories.

    1. Probably…we usually setup camp at Old Ship as we go there and there is always some good stuff going on there for the kids. Are you heading there?

      1. I am not sure where that is. This will be our 3rd year in a row. We went once and was absolutely hooked. One of the best parades I ever been to. We usually park in from of the fire station and walk over to the intersection at 228.

        1. Yes…we’ve been there by the fire station too. If we go and we know where we will be I’ll post on early Friday.

  108. I’m going out on a limb a bit, but this rescheduling may be the dumbest move Boston’s made in a long time. The priority (number 1 consideration) should not be musician availability (btw surely the Pops are available, and that’s what matters music-wise!). It should be safety and creating conditions conducive to the least amount of disruption or chaos. Tomorrow’s commute will be horrendous. Tomorrow’s weather could present dangers – yes, real danger – to exposed crowds. It is unbelievably dumb to reschedule an event without thinking through the implications, some of which are risky and needless. Saturday evening is the logical reschedule date. No safety issues from storms, and minimal disruptions on the roadways (it’s a day off). It appears the city responds to the threat of terrorism with enormous vigilance. Fine. But, tomorrow’s threat is real. It should not be underestimated. Should things go wrong, which I hope they don’t, the city would be held liable.

  109. Out shopping. Closed all windows before leaving just in case even though I didnt think it would rain a drop. It won’t in boston. πŸ˜€

    1. Darn! and I was hoping my plants would get a little drink tonight. Will have to get to them early in the morn!

    2. By closing all the windows you are going to be coming home to one “stuffy” house to say the least OS…UGH! πŸ˜‰

      1. It was a precaution.

        As it turned out I was wrong, we actually received a “few”
        drops of rain, but that was it!

  110. Absolutely poor decision to have the show tomorrow and not Saturday, that’s all I’m saying on that issue.

  111. I totally agree with you. Saturday is going to be a much nicer day with no threat of showers and storms unlike tomorrow. As I said earlier could see another rounds of strong to possibly severe storms across SNE tomorrow.

  112. I don’t suppose the Beach Boys et al could be persuaded to give a “free” performance on Saturday night just this one time? Too bad everything has to be all about $$$$$. It is not like the BB (and the other performers for that matter) are one paycheck away from living homeless in tents or something. It is not just the 4th…I thought it is considered a “3-day” weekend after all….but what do I know? LOL.

    A total waste of some great weather for Saturday & night IMO. Keep fingers crossed that tomorrow night remains dry until midnight.

  113. Curious as to how Friday morning will be. I am in the Plymouth parade and the committee is making a decision by noon tomorrow about all of Plymouth’s events.

  114. TK, why do the NAM and GFS start with a much weaker storm now? Shouldn’t it reflect current pressures or close to it, doesn’t it impact the outcome somewhat?

    1. Good question. I haven’t looked at the runs yet. May be some kind of initialization issue.

  115. for those who do not already know. Boston Pops moved to thursday july 3rd.

    Tropical storm Aurthor looks like its getting a little more healthy and that cold front seems to be moving a tad slower.

    Thanks for the birthday wishes everyone. Went to the cape today. It was a great day. went to skaket beach in Orleans. Its been my favorite beach to go to in new england ever since i was like 3. … Water temperature might be 67 but when the tides comes in the sun heats up the sand, water goes over it. Water is at least 5 degrees warmer if not warmer. It honestly reminds me of a beach at st thomas thats how warm it was today

  116. what i do not understand is that the latest gfs and nam shove this thing well out to sea, i think some peeps just jumped the gun. πŸ˜‰

    1. It’s not so much where the center goes. It’s a close pass and a storm that will likely be a category 1 hurricane near an area with many many tourists around, and huge outdoor plans. The way the western flank rain band sets up likely soaks from Cape Cod to Boston Friday afternoon & night. So despite the logistics issues, it was probably the best call that could have been made under the circumstances.

      Weekend itself looks fabulous. I have 2 more fireworks displays (Saturday & Sunday nights) and a cookout on Saturday afternoon. So I’m a happy camper. πŸ™‚

  118. SPC has a good chunk of SNE in a slight risk for severe storms with the exception of eastern areas. Will see what happens when this updated around 9AM.
    Thunderstorm Impact Scale:
    Wind – Elevated
    Flooding – Elevated
    Hail – Low
    Tornado – Low

  119. From the SPC:

    …MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND…

    RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
    REGION WITH SFC DEW POINTS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ALONG
    MUCH OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
    EXPECTED TO BE RATHER POOR /LESS THAN 6.5 DEG C PER KM/…POCKETS
    OF STRONG SFC HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN WEAK TO MODERATE
    INSTABILITY BY MIDDAY GIVEN THE DEGREE OF BOUNDARY LAYER
    MOISTURE. THE COLD FRONT AND NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER
    SHEAR PROFILES WILL TEND TO FAVOR STORM CLUSTERS OR BROKEN
    LINES…BUT 30-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR BRIEF
    SUPERCELL STRUCTURES EARLY IN STORM EVOLUTION.
    DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT…AS AFOREMENTIONED “`
    POOR LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT LARGE-HAIL POTENTIAL…BUT SOME
    MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS.

    1. 06Z GFS CAPE

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014070306&time=INSTANT&var=CAPE&hour=015

      Lifted Index

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014070306&time=INSTANT&var=LFTX&hour=015

      06z CMC-RDPS / Explorer Cape

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=06&mod=gemreg&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=gemreg&stn2=CAPE&hh2=015&fixhh=1&hh=012

      06z CMC-RDPS / Explorer Lifted Index

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=06&stn=LI&hh=012&map=na&stn2=CAPE&run2=06&mod2=gemreg&hh2=012&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

      Those are some pretty juicy instability parameters. Let’s see what happens.

    2. Within the slight risk area you have 5% for hail 15% for wind 2% for tornado. Now yesterday we saw the probabilites
      increase some with later updates so it will be interesting to see as we move through the day will those probabilites stay
      the same drop or increase.

  122. CMC with the EHI Value you posted Old Salty on the aggressive side. Good call yesterday when you saw the storm near Poukispsee, NY trying to form the hook as one of our local stations put the radar in velocity mode you saw a small cuplet trying to form but only lasted a few minutes so there was probably some rotation in the clouds.

  124. Now for Arthur

    HWRF – 8PM 4th

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2014070300/hwrf_ref_01L_15.png

    GFDL

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfdl/2014070300/gfdl_mslp_wind_01L_10.png

    gfs

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014070306/gfs_mslp_pcpn_neus_7.png

    cmc

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014070300/gem_mslp_pcpn_neus_8.png

    Latest runs are clearly more off shore, but makes little difference for our area.
    Still socked in with rain.

  126. 6z NAM Lift Index Values
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=06&mod=nam&stn=LI&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=nam&stn2=LI&hh2=018&fixhh=1&hh=012

    6z NAM CAPE Values
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=CAPE&hh=012&map=na&stn2=LI&run2=06&mod2=nam&hh2=012&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    6z NAM EHI Values
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=EHI&hh=012&map=na&stn2=CAPE&run2=06&mod2=nam&hh2=012&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

  127. US National Weather Service Boston MA

    Arthur is now a Category 1 Hurricane. Not much change in the forecast track or intensity. Arthur is still forecast to bring heavy rain to much of the region late Friday afternoon through Friday night. Tropical Storm force winds are possible over the SE coastal waters but the strongest winds are expected to stay well offshore.

    https://fbcdn-sphotos-c-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xfa1/v/t1.0-9/10408708_644911125603262_1000457541194408971_n.jpg?oh=4696b67d3d066c72d7c4d32706711d15&oe=54311F4F&__gda__=1411237753_66afc4fc4e360bae597bc6bfa0d9d65f

  128. NAM (North American Mesoscale Model), WRF-NMM Core; 4km forecast grid

    18Z or 2PM Friday

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2014070306/nam4km_ref_neus_12.png

    21Z or 5Pm Friday

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2014070306/nam4km_ref_neus_13.png

    0Z or 8PM Friday

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2014070306/nam4km_ref_neus_14.png

    03Z or 11PM Friday

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2014070306/nam4km_ref_neus_15.png

  129. If I heard right the rain tomorrow may hold off till the afternoon and Night, do you guys agree. All I need is a dry morning for tomorrow to do last minute yard work for my Saturday party which looks great as of now. Happy 4th everybody !!!

    1. Thanks John. We’re not camping for another week, as we are staying with family in Wilmington. We are inland from the ocean about 2 miles.

      1. Great to hear from you Tom – was thinking of you this morning when they said there are some mandatory evacs on the outer banks. Nothing fun to get stuck in that traffic. Enjoy and hope to see pictures.

  131. I bet Tom is loving it. This is type of hurricane that is not dangerous to stay and watch the surf.

  133. If I read these dropsonde messages correctly …..

    Pressure down to 983 mb, they had a max wind of 83 kts flying away from the center and a 79kt wind where they dropped the sonde.

    I wonder if these new measurements may see a slight bump up in the winds at 8am advisory.

    Satellite presentation looks even better this morning, particularly on the western side, where it doesnt look so empty of clouds.

    1. Wow – we have a WHW weather person on the scene – I think that is amazingly cool. Enjoy and stay safe, Tom!!

  136. I was thinking about moving the date to tonight vs Saturday. I know I agreed with Joshua and in some ways still do. However, I also know first-hand how difficult it is to make a decision to move even a small event. No matter what the decision, not everyone will be happy with it. These folks have organized an amazing event for years. I figure either way that they are doing their best to make the event special for all.

    And stepping down ………….

      1. Hi Sue – how is your planning going for the parade and it was your comment that reminded me of the times I was one of several making the decision to change events based on weather. It is a miserable decision to make.

  137. Good morning all!!!

    If this were the 4th, I’d be at the Esplanade already. We are INDEED going down there today, but not leaving as early since it will take far longer for the prime viewing spots to vanish. The extra time this morning is used for packing up things we would have packed up tonight, after the Danvers display we would have been at, which has been rescheduled to Saturday, which ended up working out fine because of course Boston is tonight. Even so, I may still choose to go to Wilmington’s display on Saturday instead. That one is insane. We’ll see. Looks like it’s still going to be Waltham Sunday night. The irony is, the only night from Wed thru Sunday I may not see any fireworks is the 4th itself, but I’ll be at a friend’s watching the Boston one over from the TV perspective via DVR, along with DVR versions of NYC and DC fireworks.

    All that aside, I have updated the blog! Feel free to re-post anything over there. I’ll be checking in a few times during the day via mobile, but may not get much chance to update with any t-storms that pop up. I know some of you can do that. πŸ™‚

    Enjoy your day, whatever you are doing. πŸ™‚

  138. Question – I thought I heard this morning that the front from the west is slowing down a bit. How will that affect the track of Arthur? Isn’t that what is keeping Arthur from coming N up the coast?

    1. The upper level trough is having more of an impact than the surface front.

  139. re: Concert Reschedule

    On the channel 4 news last evening at 11PM, they clearly indicated that
    the concert could NOT be moved to Saturday because many of the musicians
    were unavailable. SO if that is accurate, it is the definitive answer and it was
    mentioned here yesterday by someone. πŸ˜€

  140. What a STINKER out there today. BRUTAL

    Hey Tom it’s just as bad here as down there.

    It was 80 at 7:30AM and brutally humid! Dew point 71 (OK that’s not 76, but it’s bad)

    Coming into work there was BLAZING sunshine and I thought that the atmosphere
    would REALLY destabilize. Now there is ample sunshine, but there is cloudiness.
    It’s going to be a race, but my gut says watch out. We shall see.

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