Topic: Tropical

276 Comments

11:33PM

Tropical air dominates ahead of a slow-moving cold front which will take until late Wednesday to clear southeastern New England. Until then, the threat of showers/downpours and some thunderstorms will continue. A cluster of showers/storms including some downpours will move south southwest to north northeast across parts of the region overnight, but during the day Tuesday only a few pop ups or small clusters of this activity is expected, as a more solid line of convection organizes well to the west. This line brings the best chance of severe storms into western New England during the afternoon, but signs suggest that this line will weaken and start to fall apart as it moves into southeastern New England during the evening of Tuesday. It will have to wait for another impulse coming up along the front to re-energize and bring a final around of downpours for Wednesday morning, impacting the commute. This wet weather may linger through the afternoon over Cape Cod but a drying trend should take place elsewhere as the front begins to push offshore. A shot of modified cool air will arrive late Wednesday into Thursday as the humidity breaks. A warm up will follow on Friday and Saturday as high pressure re-positions itself south of the region. By the middle and end of the weekend, clouds and an eventual shower threat is expected as more tropical moisture returns around the back side of this high pressure area, aided by an approaching low pressure trough from the west.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely, downpours and thunderstorms possible. Muggy. Lows 65-70. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Pop up showers and thunderstorms with local heavy downpours. Many areas rain-free much of the time. Muggy. Highs 77-85. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms moving in from the west but becoming weaker and less numerous while pushing eastward through midnight, then increasing again from southwest to northeast overnight with more widespread downpours possibly by dawn. Muggy. Lows 65-70. Wind variable to SSW 10-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers/downpours and embedded thunderstorms morning-midday most areas, midday-afternoon Cape Cod. Breaking clouds from the west later. Humid. Highs in the 70s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, mostly from the S trending to W.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 55. High 79.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 60. High 82.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 65. High 85.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 65. High 80.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms. Low 65. High 78.

276 thoughts on “Topic: Tropical”

  2. Good morning.

    Although the CMC seems to over cook EHI, todays numbers are rather
    Alarming:
    EHI

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=06&mod=gemreg&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=gemreg&stn2=EHI&hh2=015&fixhh=1&hh=012

    CAPE

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=06&mod=gemreg&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=gemreg&stn2=CAPE&hh2=000&fixhh=1&hh=012

    LI

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=06&stn=LI&hh=012&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=06&mod2=gemreg&hh2=012&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    Will this result in anything or not?

    Time will tell.

    1. METEOROLOGIST JEFF HABY

      1. What is EHI?

      The Energy Helicity Index (EHI) is a combination of two indexes. By itself, it is the best index available for tornado prediction since it combines both CAPE and Helicity. The CAPE is the amount of pure instability present from a parcel of air that rises from the lower PBL. Helicity is the product of low level shearing (known as streamwise vorticity) and storm inflow directly into the streamwise vorticity. The Helicity is storm relative which means the Helicity is calculated from the storm’s frame of reference.

      2. How is EHI determined?:

      EHI = (CAPE * SR HEL) / 160,000

      3. Operational significance of EHI:

      EHI
      EHI > 1 Supercell potential
      1 to 5 up to F2, F3 tornadoes possible
      5+ up to F4, F5 tornadoes possible

      4. Pitfalls:

      a. Tornadoes are still possible in cases with a low EHI in cases where the CAPE or the shear is very large. This is especially true when the CAPE is low based and when mesoscale boundaries enhance the Helicity.

      b. HEL is especially variable on the mesoscale– thus EHI may be much higher in particular areas.

      c. Make sure storms will develop in the first place in the high EHI environment (i.e. cap will break).

      1. From another site I obtained these:

        Energy Helicity Index (EHI) EHI Measurement What it Means

        2 or less Tornadic Activity is quite unlikely. <B<
        2 to 2.4 Isolated/weak tornadoes could occur.
        2.5 to 2.9 Isolated strong tornadoes are possible.
        3 to 3.9 A few strong/long-track tornadoes could occur.
        4 or greater Likelihood of strong/long-track tornadoes is very high.

        This is quite concerning.

  3. BTW with the ABOVE CMC run with EHI=4 with CAPE of 3000, the HELICTY
    is about 213. Something to think about.

    Again from watching these runs, the CMC always has the HIGHEST EHI values,

    I’d be MORE alarmed if the other models had high numbers as well.

    So let’s watch things develop and also see what the 12Z runs show as well.

  4. SPC has a low end (15% wind probabilities) slight risk for central and western MA for this afternoon. Those probabilities may well get increased later today at least for western areas (and the 2% tornado risk may be increased as well), because it looks like things will get nasty out there by mid afternoon. Still looks pretty quiet for eastern areas though, JR on 7 is saying nothing but fog and sprinkles for areas south of Boston, before rain and downpours move in for all of us tonight and tomorrow morning.

        1. It just looks and feels like one of those days that will stay dark and dreary and socked in with clouds, south of Boston at least. Not a hint of sunshine yet.

    1. @ericfisher: High-res models indicating that highest severe risk may trend farther east into #Boston area this PM. Contingent on sunshine.

    2. From the end of that loop it looks like the sun should be out now. It definitely is not.

  7. We will be leaving Jackson, NH in about 30 minutes. My directions says that it will be a 3:45 hour drive. Hopefully arriving home around 1pm. I am hoping I have time to cut the grass and lay down 250lbs of Lime before any rain hits. Hanover received .03″ of rain last night and hopefully more to come.

  8. The “low” temp in Cape Hatteras overnight was 79F. The dewpoint is 76F.

    We now have A/C in the camper and am extremely greatful for that !!

  10. It is in the lows 80s where I am Williamsburg VA. Waiting here later this afternoon for the possiblity of strong to severe storms. It looks like wind damage and heavy rain is the main threats here but up there reading some of the discussions and looking at the links Old Salty posed would not be surprised if somewhere in SNE there is a weak tornado especially if that sun comes out and discrete storms could form.

  11. The SUN is now out here. Instability is REVVING UP!!!

    Even Eric Fisher last night mentioned the possibility of a TORNADO or 2
    somewhere in Southern NE.

    Frankly I’m a bit worried. Will continue to watch. Usually my worries end up
    to be unfounded.

    We shall see.

    1. When you’re worried, so am I 🙂
      You’re usually right on when it comes to forecasting severe weather!

      1. You’re being kind and only remembering the times I was correct, not ALL of the times I was wrong. 😀

        1. OS, I don’t care if you’re right or wrong, you’re enthusiasm is one of the biggest reasons I like this place 🙂

          And the latest HRRR shows CAPE values up to 2500J for much of our area this afternoon, and it is now showing some pop-up storms out ahead of the storms out west. So maybe we will get some action here, that could be what Eric is seeing. I’m just not sure if the clouds will break or not, still socked in where I am!

          1. Pretty Sunny here at the office, across the Street from Dudley Station in Roxbury. AND HUMID!!
            MY God, is it ever HUMID. The atmosphere
            is LOADED!!!!!

          2. Thanks for the kind words. I love being here.
            My biggest regret in life is that I didn’t become
            a meteorologist. I came awfully close. IF hormones didn’t get in the way, it would have happened. 😀

            Don Kent personally advised me on the proper schooling. He recommended a BA in Math and Physics (achieved) and then pursue the Meteorology at the Masters level. (Didn’t happen, marriage happened instead. :D)

            I graduated from Northeastern University and my COOP job was with the Weather Radar Branch of Air Force Cambridge Research labs.
            I worked with first class Mets every day. I manned the radars and crunched data for these guys. It was a truly awesome experience!!!

            1. I’ll ditto that great comment by WxWatcher . And OS the times you were right were several times that I was able to change plans or ask my kids to for what turned out to be VERY good reason. And those are the times that count the most.

    1. Latest HRRR CAPE for 4PM today

      http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2014071510/full/cape_sfc_f10.png

      Latest HRRR LIFTED INDEX for 4PM today

      http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2014071510/full/bli_sfc_f11.png

      Latest HRRR 0-1km HELICITY for 4PM today

      http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2014071510/full/1hsm_sfc_f11.png

      That shows HELICITY of 150-200

      Lets split the difference and say it is 175 and used a conservative CAPE
      Value of 2,000 (it’s probably higher) and plug into the EHI formula:

      EHI=CAPE * HELICITY / 160,000
      OR
      2,000 * 175 = 350,000 Divided by 160,000 = 2.1875

      IF we use Cape of 2,500 and Helicity of 200 then we get

      2,500*200=500,000/160,000= 3.125

      SO the HRRR is in decent agreement with the 06Z CMC

      Later this afternoon looks OMINOUS!!

      We shall continue to monitor. Will check on subsequent HRRR runs
      and the latest 12Z model suite.

      To be perfectly honest, the HRRR showed some inconsistency.

      Although highest instability was around 4PM in these parts, simulated radar
      reflectivity showed the action to be farther West between Berkshires and
      CT River. VERY HEAVY activity, but when it shifts eastward later, it
      DIMINISHES greatly. (again this is simulated from model runs)

      SO the instability may be there in Eastern sections, BUT the Trigger seems to
      be lagging to the West. We shall see.

  15. Sun and clouds here.

    I think it might just be me but when I heard the “polar invasion” (direct quote from Today show) this morning, I was expecting temps to be in the 40s. To then report highs in the upper 60s and mid-70s……………seriously? To me that is plain and simply “ahhhhhhhh” weather.

    1. Yes, Polar invasion and when it first gets here full blast on Thursday, Eric
      was forecasting a high of 80! 😆

  17. 11Z HRRR model shows CAPE of 3,000 Joules, LI of about -7 with Helicity of
    150. That gives an EHI value of about 2.8

  18. Here is that Eric Fisher tweat:

    Eric Fisher @ericfisher · 2h
    High-res models indicating that highest severe risk may trend farther east into #Boston area this PM. Contingent on sunshine.

  19. From NWS earlier:

    IF INSTABILITY CAN BE GENERATED INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE…THEN THINKING THERE WILL
    BE ENOUGH BALANCE TO BRING A CONCERN FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION. DAMAGING WIND FROM LINE SEGMENTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT…BUT IF ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DEVELOP LARGE HAIL AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE

  20. I did not see a big change in the slight risk area with the latest update from SPC an hour ago. The only change I saw was adding a 30% for wind from Southern NY down to the D.C. Area. Other probablitites stayed the same.
    Got to see if there are discrete cell forming and the amount of sunshine that could be enough to get some of these storms to rotate. As I said earlier would not surprise if there is a weak tornado somewhere in SNE today if the instablity could be maxamized.

  21. In a meeting but the surroundings are getting brighter which means the sun might be starting to come out south of Boston 🙂

  22. A few breaks of Sun now in Wrentham, and visible satellite shows a lot of breaks in central MA, with the clearing moving east, along with cumulus development.

    1. Watch that sunshine.

      11AM Boston Dew Point 73 Degrees!!!!

      If we get that sunshine, oh boy.

      Gotta run for awhile. I have to leave the office and won’t be back until
      about 1:30 PM. May be able to check in briefly via mobile.

  27. Made it home in good time. 3:22 which included a quick food stop and a emergency bathroom stop. 🙂

    I noticed more sunny breaks on the north shore but also started to see some sun breaking out here. We received a total of .15″ since Sunday morning. I am
    at 2.73″ for the month.

  28. OS adding to the comments above the value and enthusiasm you bring to this blog is really one of the bigger reasons why this is a fun place to be. I have learned a lot from you and TK of course as well as others on this blog.

    1. Thank you for the very kind words. I enjoy being here. I just hope I’m not
      posting too much.

  29. Popcorn storms starting to pop up on radar but main activity to the west of the boston to providence corridor

      1. I’ll be watching OS. That does concern me the storms are of that variety. Prime conditions for spin-ups.

      2. The movement of these storms strongly suggests eastern MA doesn’t get in in the action. There’s one cell forming in SW CT that looks nasty

  30. Agree with what people are saying about oldsalty, extreamly talented and brings a good sense of humer to the blog. Well twelve days went by way to fast as back to work tomorrow . It was great weather and we had a lot of fun.

    1. Kind again, but sometimes I look and see an awful lot of posts by me.
      I was just wondering IF I was overdoing it. Thanks for the vote of confidence. 😀

  32. FWIW, the 12Z CMC BACKED WAAAAAAAY OFF on the EHI values.

    AND the NAM and GFS have as well to a degree, but they weren’t as high to begin with.

    In short, perhaps there is NO tornado threat anymore? IF there is, it would
    be WEAK, F0 to no more than F1.

    1. Sun was out earlier in the Worcester area, but there have been some showers around and clouds in between. I could be wrong, but the fuel for severe weather just doesn’t seem to be there now. Could be why models are backing off?

  34. Severe thunderstorm watch is up well to our southwest, but the SPC now has a mesoscale discussion out for all of Southern New England with a 60% chance of a watch issuance.

        1. Actually there is more shear to the West, but less Cape
          and less shear to the East but More Cape. I wonder if
          they off set and the risk is about the same over
          the whole area? I’m still thinking worse to the East.

          1. I would be with you OS if that circled area had received more sun today. Especially south of Boston there was very little sun. CAPE values shouldn’t be as high in this area as areas to the west

            1. There has been plenty of SUN in Boston.
              WHen I came back to the office, my car thermometer was reading 90. I know
              that is not accurate, but it is WARM out
              and the sun is brutally hot and it is unbelievably HUMID.

  35. I’ve noticed most if not all of the storms that have been in the area so far this spring/summer have been developing and moving southwest to northeast. I never remember this to be the case as much as it has been. In years past, when SE MA especially gets it’s stronger thunderstorms, they are almost always moving northwest to southeast. I always hear, keep an eye to the northwest sky.

      1. Concerned about that activity down by NYC. We’ll see if that translates northeastward.

    2. Dew points are digusting. 2PM OBS Dew Points:

      Boston 73
      Blue Hill 73
      Bedford 73
      Norwood 74

      Lift that Crap and what do you get?????

  38. They sure are moving SW to NE but that clump of storms down over NY seems to be starting more east. Too soon to tell where it will go I know.

  40. I’m not holding on to any hope that my area sees rain today. I’m putting on the sprinklers.

    1. Good call, i am as well as its the only day of the week i am allowed by the town. Too many of these days rain has been in the forecast only to receive a few sprinkles or a brief shower. The lawns need more than that.

  41. Good afternoon everyone – greetings from the tropics of Chelmsford 😀 Lots of tropical showers, a few heavier, most light. Sun comes out, creates juice for the clouds, gets dark, rains, and does it all over again. No thunder or lightning at all, to my dismay.

    1. Hi Flowergirl…..I just opened my porch door (all windows are closed and acs are on) took a half a step onto the porch and turned right around. It is thick as soup out there. No rain but I see the dark clouds to our north – up your way.

      1. Thunder has commenced – we have central air, but I went outside to visit with my tomato and cuke garden, and lo and behold, thunder! YAY! Between cycles of the a/c, I can hear the thunders 🙂

      1. Ironically, the sun is still out. But, hopefully the clouds from those showers/storms will move in soon.

        I should have known better, I got a mild sunburn on my shoulders while I was in the pool yesterday. My shoulders were under the water, probably by a foot or so. Oh well. 🙂

  43. Sun was out in Worcester for a little while now looking for very dark and threatening. Claps of thunder as well. One which just shook my building.

      1. I was sure I was hearing thunder and couldn’t figure why until I realized neighbors have a dumpster and are tossing stuff into it 🙂

  46. Was just outside. Its actually not too bad. The dp is high but temp has been hovering just under 80 in Walpole with some gusty winds. 90-95% cloud cover to this point today has kept things in check. Feels like being on the outskirts of a tropical storm.

  48. SPC REMOVED the Mesoscale discussion for our area and posted NO watch.

    SO I guess that’s that. 😀

    1. Yep, much ado about nothing east of Worcester. In fact, per the 18z NAM, eastern areas may only end up with a quarter to half inch or so of rain out of this whole event. Seems very likely given how things have been going.

      Different story further west though with a tornado warning now out near Tyngsboro.

    1. Expires in 48 minutes. Was checking to see what was heading to kennebunkport which is where my friends are. There is a good sized thunderstorm warning up to about york and more northwest inland

      1. OS – what do you think (or is it impossible to say) about this warning traveling northeast with the system. I was going to send the info to my friends in Kennebunkport if they need to be on the lookout. Thanks

        1. Vicki,

          Warning is down already. When I looked at the relative
          velocity loop, I saw only the briefest indication of rotation.
          NWS must have based the warning on that.

          It is now GONE.

          re: Kennebunkport

          They’ll probably get a decent thunderstorm. Tornado
          NOT likely, but I’d watch that storm to be sure.
          It “could” rotate again. One can never be sure. Sorry I can’t possibly say more than that.

  50. Wow it’s DARK here in Chelmsford, very ominous
    Lots of thunder. Wide are picking up and just starting
    To rain. Very exciting! Sadly I can smell a neighbor
    Bbqing. Be safe everyone! ⚡☔

    2. Was out when a thunderstorm hit down here in Virginia. It was not severe but had lightning and briefly heavy rain. There is a severe thunderstorm watch up until 9pm

  52. A couple of Flash Floor warnings just went up NW of Boston in the area where
    there was a tornado warning.

  53. Interesting message on Twitter from Eric Fisher
    Another day with a plethora of tornado/severe thunderstorm warnings and no watch issued. SPC does great work, but this is a problem.

      1. I have to disagree there. “Plethora” of warnings? Gimme a break, a couple of marginal tornado warnings that probably shouldn’t have been issued at all and now a few marginally severe line segments on the North Shore is all we’re seeing. Watches are reserved for significant and also widespread severe weather threat areas. Individual NWS offices are perfectly capable of monitoring the potential for localized severe weather and issuing warnings accordingly. Not every storm can be covered by a national agency like the SPC. Think of all the storms almost every day in Florida during the summer. Those storms regularly become strong and sometimes severe yet you will only rarely see the SPC issue a watch there.

        1. You certainly are free to disagree and I think you are probably correct about the tornado warnings and
          Marginally severe warnings. I do believe that our
          NWS office is too quick to issue warnings.

          On the other hand, conditions were such across the
          area that a general STW probably “should” have
          been issued.

  55. Looks like on the future cast Harvey and Eric both used, SE Mass and Boston have some early morning activity between 5-8 tomorrow am.

  56. Hi Vicki… I am having fun down here. Just had a non severe thunderstorm move through my second of the day. This latest one the winds gusted lightning but less rain where the first one had lightning and briefly heavy rainfall.

  62. I tell you it rained like a sonofagun in Holden. We had flash flooding that was popping manhole covers and overtopping a culvert. Lot of lightening strikes as well with several power outages. This was from the line that came through between 4&5.

      1. Missed it here again in drought pembroke. At many times today it looked like it was going to pour out only to get sunny again.

  64. WPC has backed way off rainfall amounts. No more 2+” numbers but still widespread inch or so

  65. Where’s my rain if was promised :). Skipped watering tonight so still hoping for a good soaking for the plants.

        1. Lol. Skylight right by my daughter’s bed. If lightening starts we she will be right downstairs. She is having a sleepover too.

          1. Our youngest had a built in lightning radar. I think she used to jump into bed between us before it was even in the area. And I also remember the first time she was “too old” to do that and it made me sad 🙁

  66. North we use sound machines and they have awesome. Kids don’t hear a thing and never wake up but I agree rather not have storms but give me the rain 🙂

    1. It was awesome. Not a drop of rain and the place was beautiful. Newport looked great for you as well for the wedding.

  69. Today a Flood Watch. Cape getting hit now and so is central MA. Boston likely to see heavy rain later today, but I cannot tell exactly when — looks like during the evening commute.

  70. Tropical downpours and lightening around 11:30 last night, it came down very hard as that’s the first time it poured likes that since the 4 th.

  71. Not a DROP of RAIN ALL NIGHT LONG.

    I’m sorry but ALL of the TV mets and the NWS blew the living CRAP out the
    forecast (for Eastern Sections anyway)!!

    The ONLY voice of reason was TK.

    I can’t believe how BAD the forecasts were, I mean TERRIBLE!!!!!

    1. I see there is a line South of the City. Is that it? The one to the West doesn’t
      appear to be doing much. 😀

    2. I was very surprised at Eric Fisher in particular who seemed to give in to the hype yesterday and call for severe weather particularly in the Boston area and points south. It seemed like it was based off one run of the CMC. One thing we’ve all learned about these models and sever weather parameters is they change from run to run more than they do for winter storms.

      1. Just to clarify, its ok for us on here to jump on a run and discuss, we dont issue forecasts to the public, this is for discussion purposes only and a little bit of fun 🙂

  72. I’m still waiting for rain in boston as it looks like it wants to. All morning don’t worry Boston you will be raining by 8am. The only thing right is the humid air mass .

      1. I know oldsalty I’m repeating the weather stations this morning. For two hrs now I’m trying to figure out water or not.

  73. We had heavy rain last night and I thought Longshot said it was raining in Newton. Are you guys referring specifically to Boston or all of eastern MA.

    1. Vicki, the rain to this point has been very localized when it was forecasted by most to be more widespread. The QPF has been waaaay off to this point for most areas.

      1. Agree totally and completely. The overall forecasts were way
        off.

        It’s getting really dark here now! Really dark! AND it is now
        raining lightly.

        1. Pretty good downpour/T-Storm moving across
          the MA/RI border heading up rt1/rt95 corridor
          towards Boston.

          Ace you should be getting that soon. let us know
          IF Thunder and Lightening. thanks

          1. Just popped my head up from my cube and thought it was the middle of the night! Very dark out there, starting to rain. No thunder or lightning yet. That line south of boston was south of me as well but looks like it was actually moving back toward the north and west

      2. I admit to not listening to the local stations with the exception of JR in the mornings and he has seemed to pretty much say activity would remain in the western part of the state. No idea what others are saying as I get my weather here.

        I can hear thunder to our southeast now.

        1. I think part of the issue is the TV Mets give a forecast to the general public on the regularly scheduled news, but sometimes this doesnt jive with their posts on facebook/twitter. Social media tends to have the latest and “greatest” info as far as model runs and such but does not have the thorough analysis needed to provide an accurate thoughtful forecast. It is often too reactive thus producing sometimes conflicting information.

          1. Very correct – too many sources and at too many varied times. Common sense has to enter into it also on the viewers/readers side I think. And perhaps a bit of protest with regard to the hype – not only in weather but in all aspects of reporting now.

  74. The heavens just opened up! Its like we have been slowly filling a water balloon on the end of the faucet for days but it hadn’t burst yet. Well, it just burst. Small rumble of thunder but that’s about it, just very heavy rain. It got so dark the sidewalk lights and parking lot lights at my building went on!

    1. Thank you for the live report. I couldn’t tell IF thunder or not, but on radar
      it sure looked like HEAVY RAIN!!

      Have fun!

        1. It’s just rain tom. No Wind, No thunder, no lightening, so it looks more impressive than it is.

          We won’t melt. 😀

    2. Blowing through the City now. Got here fast!!
      One rumble of thunder is all so far. 😀

  76. Raining here as well (gently).

    I’ve learned something for extreme coastal Carolina.

    You cant track thunderstorms by seeing them on radar and projecting their arrival.

    They pop up randomly, moreso after sunset.

    Radar was clear last night at 8. By 10pm, boom !

    Developed over water !!! Both directions, formed offshore in the Atlantic with a tremendous light show and west of us in Pamlico Sound.

  77. Both the original forecasts and even the early am TV met forecasts today do not seem to be on target.

    1. What is it about weather forecasting and getting a hit in MLB ?? 30% success rate and thats considered very good !! 🙂 🙂 🙂

      TK is the Ted Williams of forecasting, though I’d say TK is batting very close to 1,000.

      1. Now there is a comparison I really like!! It’s because both of them have/had a true passion and desire to do what they love to the very best of their ability.

  78. Rain and thunder here…..thunder seems to be getting close enough that I might shut down for a bit. Will see

  80. Def gotta give credit to TK. I went back and looked at his forecasts for today and the past couple days and its really on the $$$$

  81. I agree totally with TK being right on the money and most of the TV mets and the NWS blowing it. Had a brief heavy downpour with a little thunder and lightning here and now just light rain adding up to about 0.35 inches so far, and looking at radar and short range models many of us won’t see much more except perhaps the Cape later on.

  82. They nailed the storms peaking in intensity for Yesterday (Tuesday) with the Tornado warnings along the north shore. I believe a couple days back TK alluded to it drying out today. I cant seem to find it. But TK was right on about the tricks mother nature plays.

    Woods Hill Weather says:

    July 11, 2014 at 7:24 PM

    I’m still not sure how they can be so sure the ‘worst’ storms will be Tuesday.

    After Monday, when nobody had them in the forecast and we ended up with 2 supercells crossing the region, the atmosphere always has tricks up its sleeve and we just can’t pinpoint detail even that general. Chance of showers/storms? Absolutely. Potential for significant activity? Certainly. But there is a chance that storms both Monday AND Wednesday, however scattered, isolated, or general, may be stronger than anything we see on Tuesday. It’s Friday – we have a long way to go to get this narrowed down.

  84. I still say this is just an extension of winter when weather looks so promising and then at the last minute erodes……TK pulled us all down from the ceiling then too 😉

    2. There’s a large area of rain south of Long Island but i don’t think it will translate into Boston, looks to stay far south shore, cape and islands

        1. That may stay South and East, however, it looks
          like a new line is trying to form just West of RI
          in CT, heading towards Boston.

          I don’t know if it intensifies or goes poof.

          We’ll keep an eye on it.

          After that, I think we’re done.

          I don’t have a rain gauge but I’m guessing a grand total
          with Everything of no more than 1 inch. 😀

          Hadi might have a better idea.

  89. With these dewpoints in the low 70’s we have been fortunate so far this summer that we haven’t had 90+ temps along with it. That would be a health risk for many especially the elderly. I am looking forward to some nice refreshing air the next few days to say the least.

    Are we near the half-way point of summer yet?? Just curious.

    1. I’m looking forward to the polar invasion as well 🙂 I think we are just over 3 weeks into summer.

    1. PS I was joking about the floods. There wasn’t much rain at all and that includes
      Sunday night through now. 😀

  92. The highest dp that I can recall in Boston was 77F a long time ago. I have heard that in Florida it is not uncommon for dps to be in the low 80’s…UGH!

    I suppose in terms of comfort there is no real difference between a dp of 73, 77 or 82F.

  93. They need to ease up on the phone alerts. People are starting to ignore them now as they are never right or don’t impact people. Yeah I know, damned if you do, damned if you don’t…but summer time downpours have always been normal.

        1. My home alarm Vicki . In two days I must have received 10 texts from them. Leaving the city now and it’s raining.

          2. I would do exactly what Ace did – turn them off. You are informed enough anyway to not need them. Just my opinion for what it is worth

  94. I see nothing on radar to my WNW but the sky has the yellow look that is eerie. And everything is absolutely calm.

  95. That was no ordinary downpour on my drive home. The flash flood warning was completely warranted. I have not driven through (around) flooding like that in quite some time.

      1. the very narrow intense line that was in Metro West to the North Shore between 2PM and currently.

  96. The problem is not that there are too many warnings (most of the time). The problem is that people need to understand the LOCAL NATURE of some of these warnings. Perhaps the tech will catch up soon enough that it will only alert your phone by first finding out your exact location.

    1. I don’t recall ever receiving a “reverse 911” message…for weather warnings or otherwise.

    2. Totally understandable TK. I don’t need a warning to my exact location (i understand that was partly sarcasm, lol) but I do feel if there is a warning given out it should be narrowed down to AT LEAST the geographical location within a specific county, i.e., Western Norfolk, Northern Middlesex, etc. And, followed by a list of towns/cities affected. This should only be done for an immanent severe weather situation where it is an almost certainty this will occur. A flood warning for instance where NO rain occurs at all is a waste IMO and leads to people not taking them seriously in the future.

      1. You are correct. The flaw in the system is that warning are transmitted by county.

        Example, yesterday a tornado warning was issued for a very small storm cell in the extreme NW corner of Middlesex County yet people 25 miles away are being asked to take cover for a storm that is moving away from them and is already over 2 dozen miles away.

        Yes there are details in the text portion of the warning but peole see the alert messages and don’t get much beyond that.

        The public needs to be educated better and as I always say this is the job of the meteorologists and media, in combination.

        1. That is basically true; however, I have received warnings for middlesex county when there are no warnings anywhere within middlesex. That has not happened in several weeks so I figure either they solved the problem or it worked out that the warnings were real.

          1. I didn’t receive the tornado warning yesterday, but got the flash flood warning today.

            However other people I know got the tornado warning yesterday and they were nearby.

            Bizarro.

            This system is not great.

            1. No but as you wisely said a bit of common sense goes a long way. After a couple of imperfect warnings, most can figure it out

    1. Nope did NOT post. I like that song, but it is lower on my list than some others.

      COOL. Thank you.

      1. I have to respectfully disagree as it is quite high on MY list. 😀

        Thanks for sharing Vicki…although I don’t understand how the song relates to OS. ❓

        1. I don’t either …..for some reason I just thought of him. And I’m glad you liked it. I was a Hollies fan.

        2. That’s fine. I have strange taste in Music. I didn’t say that I did not like it. I do, but I like others better that is all. 😀

  98. Apologizes for a long break between blog updates. I’ve had a couple very busy days. Even today when I got home I had to chase my trash barrel down the river that used to be the street I live on. 😉

    I’m taking a ride to The Clam Box for a break, a tasty one, and then I will update this evening. 🙂

    PREVIEW: Weather pattern looks good for a while after we get rid of this.

    1. Clam Box?

      THe only one I know is on Quincy Shore Drive at Wollaston Beach.
      Is that where you are going?

      OR is there one like on Revere Beach?

      😀

  99. I notice that there is a new AccuWeather.com met Jim Dickey. His blog is the STORM BLOG. Based on his picture he looks quite young.

    Has anyone here ever heard of him? TK?

    2. I’ve heard of him but have not read too much of the blog. I’ll check it out.

    1. Have not been for years and years – decades ?….next time I’ll go with you :). What did you have?

      1. I’d love to have you along. 🙂

        Since it was my first time, I had clam strips, fries, and o-rings. 🙂

  104. The last few hours, the heavens have opened here.

    I’m guessing 1-2 inches, but the water has no where to go.

    As thin as these Outer Banks are, they are flat, no real sewerage and the water just deepens where it falls.

    Parts of Rte. 12 are covered with water, many sites on the campground are under water and the next heavy shower has just begun …….

    2. Hopefully the weather improves for you tomorrow Tom. We had some showers this morning and remained cloudy until mid afternoon when the sun came out. I have noticed a big difference in the humidity today compared to Monday when the dew points were in the 70s and temps were in the upper 90s.

      1. Thanks Vicki, we’re fine. Interesting driving around though !!

        JJ ….. It was a wonderful day without sun, in order to get a break from it. I think the sun is supposed to be back out here tomorrow. Glad its more comfortable where you are. Still soupy here, temp and dewpoint are about 72F with moderate rain.

  105. At the restaurant we ate at today, there was a wait.

    In the waiting area, they had a plaque, titled “unwanted guests to the Outer Banks”.

    Under that was 7 or 8 large IR satellite pictures of recent hurricanes (since mid 80s) as they were passing over/by the Outer Banks.

    Trying to remember a few …..

    Isabel, Emily (1993?), Floyd, Gloria, Bob and a few others that I’m drawing a blank on.

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