Reheating

171 Comments

3:30AM

High pressure again sinks south of New England during the next 3 days and allows some September heat and humidity back into the region, especially Friday into Saturday. However, a cold front will slice across the area Saturday. Current indications are timing will be little faster with this front, limiting the chance of showers and thunderstorms to Saturday itself and allowing Sunday to turn out nicer, though there may be some cloudiness around at times. Cooler and drier air will flow into the region on Sunday and last into the start of next week.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 77-88, coolest South Coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows in the 60s. More humid. Wind SW 5-10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 79-90, coolest South Coast. Humid. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny and hazy. Scattered thunderstorms. Humid. Low 68. High 89.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Less humid. Low 61. High 79.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 53. High 71.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 50. High 73.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 53. High 75.

171 thoughts on “Reheating”

      1. Not good. Have a 2nd opinion tomorrow and depending on what he says we will decide wether to operate or not.

          1. Yeah spinal fusion. First dr at BWH wants to do it but it’s major surgery. I have bulging and herniated disks at L4-L5. I also have advanced degenerative disk disease. But I am only 40 so very hesitant but the pain is awful. Barley able to walk or stand for more than 20 min.

            1. That sounds terrible! I hope the docs can fix it so u feel better soon. If surgery is the only option for a full recovery it looks like the best option

            2. Hadi – my husband has the same exact thing that you have. At 53 (he is now 66) he was offered fusion and refused because he heard from others w/similar problem that fusion is not good. However, my husband still has back problems and he is on a lot of medication – but he can walk and do most things. So – I cannot advise – get your 2nd opinion and decide. Good luck and I hope you feel better. You are younger than my husband so one thing might be better for you than my husband. Just want to let you know my husband has the same thing and has know the pain.

              1. Thanks. It’s a tough decision bc there are no gtd but I am only 40 and can’t live like this. Both my mom and sister have had the surgery so there is no doubt that at some point I will have to. I was out of work in the fall for 3 month bc if this and now been out for a month. So clearly something has to change.

            3. YIKES Hadi.

              I am sorry.

              My wife has a similar problem, same area but she has spinal stenosis and spondylolysis. Docs at both the Brigham and Mass General want to perform surgery on her with ZERO guarantees. In fact one surgeon said she would swap one pain for another.

              On top of this, she cannot take pain medication as she is allergic.

              No win.

              She knows your pain.

              Best of luck no matter what you decide.

            4. Sorry to hear you’re not feeling well! I wish you the best. Nothing worse than back pain as also suffer from degenerative disc disease. I feel for you!!! I will keep you in my thoughts with the hope that tomorrow’s second opinion offers alternative options other than major surgery.

  4. Accuweather: Looks like fall will start on the 16th of October this year with highs that day in the 50’s.

  9. Good morning.

    Terrible fire in Allston, although there were some minor injuries, thankfully
    no one was killed. I HATE fires. Always been scarred to death of them.
    I think I was traumatized as a child of 6 seeing the house next door going up in
    flames. Absolutely frightning!! Fire dept saved the house and the woman trapped
    inside. It was a very good ending.

    I digress.

    On the weather front, another gorgeous day on tap for us before humidity is on
    the rise.

    Saturday “could” be interesting with models ALL over the place. There appears
    that there will be fairly significant instability in place. Timing of the front with the attendant lift now seems to be such that Potent storms could form. Depending on the model, CAPES are from 1,500 to 3,000 joules and LI from -6 to -8.

    NAM has the most aggressive EHI numbers:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=EHI&hh=060&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=06&mod2=nam&hh2=060&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    NAM even has up to 4,000 joules in places:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=06&mod=nam&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=nam&stn2=CAPE&hh2=066&fixhh=1&hh=060

    1. From NWS regarding Saturday:

      AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL…BEST SHEAR LAGS
      BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND BETTER INSTABILITY. THEREFORE…A
      WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK APPEARS UNLIKELY.
      HOWEVER…SHEAR DOES INCREASE A BIT LATE IN THE DAY AND THERE WILL BE NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS IN PLACE. THEREFORE…A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS.

      So, right now, the main threat appears to be heavy rain/downpours. 😀

  10. re: Shark Attack

    I’m with Vicki on this.

    Sharks and in particular great whites, LOVE SEALS and seals are their main source of food.

    Sitting in a kayak, with the bottom looking very much like a seal, in close proximity
    to a bunch of seals (herd, Pod, flock? take your pick) is INSANITY. I am happy the girls are OK, but seriously, they were asking for trouble!!!

  13. 6z GFS For Saturday
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=CAPE&hh=060&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=06&mod2=nam&hh2=060&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=LI&hh=060&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=06&mod2=gfs&hh2=060&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=EHI&hh=060&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=06&mod2=gfs&hh2=060&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

  14. RE: “Reheating”

    I have never cared for leftovers. These are summer’s leftovers and im in the mood for some fresh fall comfort food 🙂

    1. Hey, ACE…

      Meant to say this before, but you were right on target for Tuesday
      being HOTTER than advertised.

        1. Indeed. If it were, say around July 4th, with the amount
          of sunshine we had Tuesday, I’d say we would have made a run at the state record of 104!!!

          It was HOT on Tuesday. One of the most uncomfortable days I can ever remember.

  15. re: Saturday

    Maybe, just maybe, SE MA gets some beneficial rain finally.
    Right now, I don’t see any severe weather. We’ll see if that changes.

  16. Thanks, TK.

    This past summer is not exactly what I would have liked – I would have liked to see just a few more HHH days w/no thunderstorms. From what I remember, we used to have HHH days w/no thunderstorms until a major cold front would come through and clear the air. Now we get 1 HHH day and there’s the threat of thunderstorms – along w/the threat of severe weather.

    So, now, I am just looking forward to Fall. I don’t care about HHH ’til nxt. yr. now. The days are getting shorter; school is back – bring on the colorful foliage (if we get much), and the holidays and even the snow! I admit – there were some really beautiful wknds. this summer – good for many activities w/o humidity. And for those who don’t like the HHH, it was good.

    My computer is not working that well so there may be a point when I may not be on for awhile – we’ll see.

  17. New grass put in yesterday as we finished a major project raising our yard. So hoping for some rain but I have to water at least twice daily until it starts growing. Really hoping tomorrow and Sat are the last hot days bc that can destroy the grass no matter what I do.

    1. I used Scott’s ez seed with Scott’s top soul for bare spots and I put it down on Saturday and is already sprouting.

    2. Should have just picked up some crab grass seed. That will grow anywhere under any conditions! 😆 😆 😆 😆

  18. I wonder if Friday temps are going to give Tuesday’s temps a run for their money.

    Its currently 80-82F in Des Moines, IA …. Kansas City and St. Louis, Mo. and they are an hour behind us.

    The heart of the warmest 850mb temps will also be arriving tomorrow.

    Perhaps indirect ocean flow from the SW will temper things a bit, but I’m curious to see what happens in the Merrimack Valley and southern NH.

    2. Top 850MB temp for Friday is about 18C.
      That would equate to a maximum surface temperature, assuming it is
      totally mixed down, of about 92. 😀

    1. Best view of 12Z NAM for Saturday, 2PM (18Z)

      CAPE

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=12&stn=CAPE&hh=054&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=12&mod2=nam&hh2=054&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

      LIFTED INDEX

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=12&stn=LI&hh=054&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=12&mod2=nam&hh2=054&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

      ENERGY HELICITY INDEX

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=12&stn=EHI&hh=054&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=12&mod2=nam&hh2=054&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

        1. 12Z GFS for Saturday

          CAPE

          18Z

          http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014090412&time=INSTANT&var=CAPE&hour=054

          21Z

          http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014090412&time=INSTANT&var=CAPE&hour=057

          LIFTED INDEX

          18Z

          http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014090412&time=INSTANT&var=LFTX&hour=054

          21Z

          http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014090412&time=INSTANT&var=LFTX&hour=057

          By all accounts, T-storm activity in Eastern Sections should fall between about 2PM and 6PM.

          Even the SPC says convection would be moving off the coast by 0Z or 8PM.

  20. On thing about Saturday….

    This time, Eastern and Southeastern sections are in line for the
    T-storms. They’re NOT going to go POOF as they approach the coast as they
    will be moving into maximum instability. Not saying they will be severe (Although that
    is still a possibility), just saying that I think most in Eastern sections get into decent rain amounts this time around. 😀

    Could be a fun (Interesting) afternoon.

    2. 12Z Canadian takes it to this position in 10 days:

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014090412/gem_mslp_wind_eus_41.png

      With the following upper winds:

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014090412/gem_uv250_eus_41.png

      That would place it in a very very dangerous position.

      On the other hand, here is this morning’s GFS for the same time period: 😀

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014090412/gfs_mslp_wind_eus_37.png

      Just a wee bit of a difference there.

      I’d go with the CMC, but who knows. Something to watch.

      And speaking of the CMC, what the bleep is this?

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014090412/gem_mslp_wind_eus_26.png

      1. Mike’s Weather Page

        Models have been teasing the idea of low pressure forming just off the SE coast the end of the weekend into Monday. Nothing showing up too organized right now… just a rainmaker it looks like. Area slowly comes up from the east coast of Florida and eventually heads NE next week. Euro is showing it in this afternoons model run

  22. 12Z CMC-GDPS a.k.a. GEM-GLB / North America (mesh: 25 km interpolated to 33 km) For this Saturday PM:

    CAPE

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=12&stn=CAPE&hh=054&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&hh2=054&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    LIFTED INDEX

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=LI&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=LI&hh2=060&fixhh=1&hh=054

    ENERGY HELICITY INDEX (Here we go again!)

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=12&stn=EHI&hh=054&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&hh2=054&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

  24. Matt Noyes won top meteorologist in NE and his colleague Nelly won 2nd. That’s a joke as Harvey was 10. I have no problem with Matt being 1 but Nelly in 2nd is crazy.

    2. Well even Matt put out a campaign to obtain votes.
      Matt is good, but #1? Harvey #10 is INSANITY. And who the BLEEP is NELLY?

      The top 4 in no particular order are:

      Barry
      Eric
      Harvey
      Matt

      This isn’t even up for debate. This is a FACT JACK!

      1. Barry is not that great at all. He plays it safe the entire way until your shoveling it. Just don’t like that style.

        Eric #1 and Matt #2

    3. Speaking of Matt, this is from Matt:

      Severe thunderstorms likely for some Saturday afternoon and evening

  25. Was this survey strickly done by public votes? Or was there an independent system taking into account specific criteria such as technical knowledge, personality, accuracy conveying information on tv, facebook, etc?

    1. I believe it was public vote. I believe a link was given out on his
      Face Book page. IMHO, this was a drummed up popularity vote by the
      UNINFORMED public. 😀

      1. Agreed. These were probably the same people i was arguing with on the BZ facebook page that were saying they hate Eric Fisher and cant believe they let go the best Met at the station in Todd Gutner, lol

  26. Hi all!

    Just mulch/mowed my lawn again. Didn’t wait that long but tomorrow I’m going to RI, Saturday, too hot/humid to start and going to NH later, Sunday is a Pats & shopping day, and next week may turn rather wet.

    The Top Meteorologists list is a crock of shit, to be perfectly clear. All it is is a popularity/looks contest.

    The best forecasters on that list are Harvey, Matt, Barry, Eric, and Pete – and they are all nearly equal. I’ve been watching these guys for years and knowing the ins and outs of the business of forecasting, trust me on this one.

    I am proud to have a similar style to Barry. I get that some people don’t like his style, and by default don’t really like mine either. So be it. I’ve been doing this for nearly a quarter century. 🙂 Everyone is entitled to their opinion. 🙂 I’m not about to change how I do this. 😀

    But yes, that list? Harvey at the bottom? Right. That’s real accurate.

    1. NAM expects mains action right around 5PM on Saturday.
      We’re going out for dinner Saturday evening. This ought to be just dandy. 😀

      1. I’ll be on my way to Hampton for Seafood Festival & fireworks. Should be ok up there by then.

  28. Though I appreciate a forecaster sticking his/her neck out (I do it sometimes but not often), that is NOT what forecasting is supposed to be about. The ethics of this business/profession demand responsible forecasting. It’s a fine line, often changing. To skirt too close to it on a regular basis is conducive to going from hero to goat and back again many times over.

    1. Understood, BUT if one is confident, even if NO ONE else is,
      there is a time to go for it. Of course it must be measured.

      There were a couple of occasions last Winter where
      Matt stuck his neck out and was correct and another time
      Pete did the same and was correct. 😀

  29. Again I found a handful of messages in the spam folder that are from already approved bloggers. Still not sure why this is going on but I will have my super smart tech geek handle it when he is on site tomorrow night while I am at a Michael McDonald & Toto concert in RI. 😉

  30. OS… I even approved your smiley lol barrage that the blog was not happy about. It finally showed up somehow. Yesterday it was nowhere to be found. 😉

    1. I’ve seen photos this before, but not this story. Thank you.

      Pretty SAD state of affairs.

      California better start thinking about desalinization plants really soon. 😀

      1. Yes. That project was completed after the peak of the bad droughts earlier in the 20th Century so we have not seen that out there in more “modern” times with higher demand for water and food. Time to plan for these scenarios. Actually should have been done already.

        1. I had not seen these and sent to my brother in law and rest of my family. And yes we should have planned. We shoulda done a lot of things

  32. From NWS regarding Satuday:

    FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS IS JUST
    APPROACHING WESTERN MA/SOUTHWEST NH LATE IN THE DAY…BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH LI -4 TO -6 AND TOTALS NEAR 50…AND MODEL SBCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL START THE DAYAROUND 1.5 INCHES BUT CLIMB BY THE END OF THE DAY TO AROUND 2 INCHES. WINDS AT 500 MB ARE FORECAST AT 40-50 KNOTS. SO NOT A PERFECT ALIGNMENT OF SEVERE FACTORS…BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE OF CONCERN.

  34. Latest Instability parameters:

    18Z NAM

    CAPE

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=18&stn=CAPE&hh=048&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=18&mod2=nam&hh2=048&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    LI

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=18&stn=LI&hh=048&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=18&mod2=nam&hh2=048&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    EHI

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=18&stn=EHI&hh=048&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=18&mod2=nam&hh2=048&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    1. 18Z CMC-RDPS a.k.a. GEM-REG / North America (mesh: 10 km interpolated to 15 km)

      CAPE

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=18&stn=CAPE&hh=048&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=18&mod2=gemreg&hh2=048&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

      LI

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=18&stn=LI&hh=048&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=18&mod2=gemreg&hh2=048&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

      EHI

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=18&stn=EHI&hh=048&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=18&mod2=gemreg&hh2=048&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

  35. Note that the resolution on the above 2 models is as follows:

    NAM 12KM
    CMC REF 10 KM

    These are high resolution models 48 hours from an event.

  36. I wonder ….. and I know its 7 days out, but I wonder if the 9/10 – 9/11 timeframe might have an opportunity for severe weather …..

    I see on the 12z EURO and 12z GFS a low pressure area that would have us in the mild to warm sector, but also be tracking fairly close by, as opposed to say, up and over Detroit or Chicago where the dynamics would be so far north and west of us.

  38. Hello, little humid but all and all not bad, in response to sharks and seals, what I was saying is I think it’s disgusting if you sign away before the ocean kayak trip like everyone does and then look to the kayak company like they did something wrong, the ocean is big and a lot of unknown hence why they make you sign, if you wanna go ocean kayaking you have to be ready for any unknowns and if anything terrible did happen, then your responsible, you get these disgusting people that after you clearly sign and know the risk, they still can’t take responsibility, and the saddest thing is it’s all for money 🙂

    1. The girls said the kayak company suggested they go take pics of the seals. IMHO and if that is true they used that to rent a boat. Either way I am tired of the news playing this up. The girls risked their lives but also the lives of rescuers.

  42. I’m planning a Cape trip around the middle of the month, so I’m wondering how long the current summer-like weather pattern might stick around. Any thoughts? Thanks 🙂

  43. Is the Saturday rain looking to be after 6:00 or so. I know this is a difficult question but we are doing a day trip for the first time in a while and I’d be happy having everyone back in our house before the fun begins.

  44. Ahh some of my favorite weather days of the year come in September. 51 for a low this morning 85 for a high this afternoon. Big diurnal temperature swings have always been one of my favorite things in weather. Don’t ask me why, small things amuse small minds.

    1. Well my small mind joins you. I also love the swings. It is the promise of things to come and the reminder of what has been. Darn but New England is an amazing place to live 🙂 🙂

  48. SPC has us in a slight risk for severe weather tomorrow. Will see if this changes when the update comes out around 1:30 pm today.
    6z NAM for tomorrow.
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=06&mod=nam&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=nam&stn2=EHI&hh2=039&fixhh=1&hh=036
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=LI&hh=036&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=06&mod2=nam&hh2=036&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=CAPE&hh=036&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=06&mod2=nam&hh2=036&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

  49. 6z GFS For Tomorrow
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=06&mod=gfs&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=gfs&stn2=CAPE&hh2=036&fixhh=1&hh=039
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=LI&hh=039&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=06&mod2=gfs&hh2=039&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=06&mod=gfs&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=gfs&stn2=EHI&hh2=042&fixhh=1&hh=039

  50. Hadi just saw the discussion about your back. Yikes is right. Is second opinion today. You are wise to explore all options. As you know mac had no choice when his spine started to collapse from the tumors. He has 2 titanium rods supported by pins running the entire length of his back. He has been pain free since the surgery but it is not fusion. You are at the right hospital that is for sure. The dr who did his surgery is one of a few who could have. Best wishes. We are keeping you in our prayers. You sure gave been in pain for a long time

  56. CMC for tomorrow

    CAPE

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=06&mod=gemreg&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=gemreg&stn2=CAPE&hh2=039&fixhh=1&hh=036

    LI

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=06&stn=LI&hh=036&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=06&mod2=gemreg&hh2=036&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    EHI

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=06&stn=EHI&hh=036&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=06&mod2=gemreg&hh2=036&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=06&mod=gemreg&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=gemreg&stn2=EHI&hh2=036&fixhh=1&hh=039

    Thoughts on EHI….

    It appears to be that these figures are generally overcooked or NOT as meaningful as they might otherwise be. It is computed using CAPE and HELICITY. Large Cape vales and rather low Helicity can still produce an index number of 2 or 3.

    One has to weigh the Kinematic Helicity chart from the SPC SREF and factor that in.

    Currently the SREF Helicity chart for tomorrow is not showing much of anything.

    I would NOT be alarmed by these EHI figures at this time.
    When/IF the SREF starts showing something, then I’d get concerned.

  58. Thank you for the birthday wishes!!! If only I could be spending it at Plymouth beach looking for sharks instead of working!

  59. Interesting comment from the NWS re tomorrow:

    EXPECTING MAINLY 20-25 KT BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 0-3 AND
    0-6KM. NEAR SFC EHI IS NEAR 1.0 WHICH IS DECENT ON MUCH OF THE
    AVAILABLE GUIDANCE BUT IT/S LIKELY MORE INSTABILITY DRIVEN THAN
    SHEAR. 😀

    1. Could be DAMAGING winds. We’ll have to see how it develops.
      A spin up is not totally and completely off the table, however it is unlikely.
      It would take some sort of mesoscale shear to produce that as there does not
      appear to be enough synoptic shear available. BUT we shall keep an eye on that.

  62. Will see what the 12z runs have to say and the SPC update around 1:30 pm this afternoon.
    Tornado threat looks to be very low tomorrow but you get a kink in a line of storms that forms could get brief weak tornado to form.

    1. Agree, it is very low, but I don’t think we can say it is a ZERO chance.
      It is a very small non-zero chance. I just don’t know what to make of
      the CMC very HIGH EHI index values. Even the NWS says that it appears
      to be mostly instability driven (read that CAPE) and not shear. 😀

  63. Plenty of fuel in place for some strong to locally severe thunderstorm development tomorrow with those high dew points, CAPE, and the front cutting through the humid airmass in place.

  66. I am curious to see if the 12z run of the NAM is as aggressive with the EHI as the 6z run was showing values between 1-2.
    By comparison the 6z GFS had .25 of EHI values for western parts of SNE.

    1. I don’t know if the GFS is more accurate and realistic with the EHI
      OR the lousy resolution of the GFS is contributing to the lower EHI values?
      NAM and Regular CMC have MORE than TWICE the resolution of the GFS.

      CMC and NAM Always seems to have WAY higher EHI values than the GFS.

      I just don’t know the answer to this?
      TK?????????????????????

      Thanks

  67. 12Z NAM Instability charts for tomorrow:

    CAPE

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=12&stn=CAPE&hh=030&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=12&mod2=nam&hh2=030&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    LIFT

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=12&stn=LI&hh=030&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=12&mod2=nam&hh2=030&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    EHI

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=12&mod=nam&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=nam&stn2=EHI&hh2=033&fixhh=1&hh=030

    1. Strong cold front bumping into a soupy air mass with 70+ degree dew points
      with CAPES exceeding 3,000 joules and lifted index approaching -10
      spells strong to severe thunderstorms. Luckily bulk shear values are
      relatively modest, else we’d really be in trouble. As it is, damaging winds
      very possible.

      Needs to be monitored closely and we’ll be NOW CASTING tomorrow
      afternoon.

        1. Someone – maybe JR – said after the 6 o’clock hour. But as usual that was early am and I was half asleep so will wait for confirmation here.

        2. I’m thinking between 4 and 7 PM.
          Probably around 5 or 6 PM.
          Timing varies a bit among the models.

          We shall see. 😀

  69. 12Z CMC ready
    CMC-RDPS a.k.a. GEM-REG / North America (mesh: 10 km interpolated to 15 km)

    CAPE

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=12&stn=CAPE&hh=030&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=12&mod2=gemreg&hh2=030&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    LI

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=12&stn=LI&hh=030&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=12&mod2=gemreg&hh2=030&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    EHI

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=12&stn=EHI&hh=030&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=12&mod2=gfs&hh2=030&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

        1. We’ll know really soon. imho, the only way they
          do NOT enter Cuban air space is IF we shoot the
          plane down, which is a distinct possibility.

          1. We stopped tracking it but they said they could see pilot slumped. However, it’s traveling at 25,000 ft and they are not sure why pilot would have set autopilot to fly that high

  72. SPC still keeps us in the slight risk area for severe storms tomorrow with the latest update that just came out.

    1. Map:

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.gif?1409938578929

      Discussion:

      ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE MARGINAL…UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL YIELD A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT WHERE INSOLATION IS ROBUST. THIS WILL AID IN SCATTERED STORMS INITIATING DURING THE EARLY/MID-AFTERNOON. A BELT OF ENHANCED LOWER TROPOSPHERIC SWLYS OF 30-40 KT SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL FOSTER MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS A FEW WEAK/TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES THAT MAY ORGANIZE INTO SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS WITH A PRIMARY RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS.

  74. 12Z GFS instability parameters for tomorrow:

    CAPE

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=12&stn=CAPE&hh=033&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=12&mod2=gfs&hh2=033&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    LI

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=12&stn=LI&hh=033&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=12&mod2=gfs&hh2=033&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    EHI

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=12&mod=gfs&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gfs&stn2=EHI&hh2=030&fixhh=1&hh=033

  75. 12z GFS For Tomorrow
    EHI Has increased some compared to 6z run
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=12&mod=gfs&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gfs&stn2=EHI&hh2=036&fixhh=1&hh=033
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=12&stn=LI&hh=033&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=12&mod2=gfs&hh2=033&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=12&stn=CAPE&hh=033&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=12&mod2=gfs&hh2=033&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    1. 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆

      Sorry, I didn’t see anything posted, so I posted it. You were in the process
      when mine got posted.

      Sorry all for the duplicate posts here. 😀

  77. Be interested seeing what the latest SREF model run shows now that were in the time range where the SREF has been a good model when it comes to thunderstorms.

  78. 89F at 2pm, now 88F at Logan. You know, sometimes these temps make me wonder. A majority of the temps went up from 2 to 3pm, its 89F in Albany where there are more clouds, as opposed to the full sun and the wind at Logan is SW. I have to wonder sometimes.

    I also wonder if it may have touched 90F in btwn when the obs are taken.

    1. Advecting already heated air into the region will do it. The sun may not be shining at the ob site but it is shining in many places upwind.

  79. I smell a partial fail of the storms tomorrow. Something tells me it is not going to produce widespread big boomers.

    Meanwhile one of my colleagues believes we may see a solid squall line.

    We shall see. My hunches have played out nearly all summer. Will this be the fail? 😉

    Blog is updated!

    1. I’m with you TK, how many times have we seen a solid squall line hold together all the way to the coast and hit everyone it its path this summer? Never if I can recall

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