Snowcean

9:16AM

The weekend will feature some ocean-effect and briefly upper-level-disturbance-enhanced snowfall for parts of southeastern New England, as high pressure to the north provides a northeasterly air flow. The greatest likelihood for snow that will accumulate will be in coastal areas of eastern MA especially Boston northward, and just inland over all of eastern MA to northern RI. Less likely but still possible are some minor accumulations elsewhere. No accumulation is expected on Cape Cod and the Islands where it will be too mild to support snow for most of the event. Elsewhere, expect a coating to 1 inch of snow, but areas of 1-3 inches especially just inland from the coast and over elevated locations especially southwest of Boston It is not out of the question that a few small bands of greater than 3-inch accumulation could occur due to the combination of ocean enhancement and energy passing through in upper levels. Southern NH will have less activity and therefore only scattered coatings of snow.

Early next week, an onshore flow will continue. Enough dry air may work in for some sunshine Monday, but clouds should dominate again Tuesday as a weakening low pressure area passes south of the region.

A deep trough swinging through the Midwest and Great Lakes will develop a large storm system there for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day (Wednesday-Thursday), sending a frontal system through New England. What is not immediately known is the timing of the front and heaviest rainfall. And it will be rain as the air will be far too mild to support snow. There may also be some strong, gusty winds. An early estimate is that most of the rain may come through in the late night hours of Christmas Eve to early hours of Christmas Day, with a drying trend during the holiday itself.

By the end of next week it will trend somewhat colder along with mostly dry weather on Friday.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Low clouds increase across most of eastern MA through RI with occasional snow showers developing, except snow to rain showers Cape Cod & Islands. Partly sunny north central MA into southern NH though clouds and a few snow showers will eventually take over near the NH Seacoast. Highs in the 30s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Occasional to frequent snow showers, especially eastern MA into RI, but rain showers Cape Cod. Lows upper 20s to lower 30s except near 35 Cape Cod. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Frequent to occasional snow showers, especially morning and midday. Highs in the 30s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 28. High 40.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 30. High 42.
WEDNESDAY – CHRISTMAS EVE: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Risk of showers day. Period of rain night. Low 35. High 48.
THURSDAY – CHRISTMAS DAY: Mostly cloudy to partly cloudy. Risk of rain showers early. Low 38. High 45.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 35.

198 thoughts on “Snowcean”

  1. Thanks TK. Love the title. Nice job.
    Nice discussion as well.

    To add to it, here is a tweat from Bernie

    Bernie Rayno ‏@AccuRayno 22m22 minutes ago
    BTW..the southern new england snow threat discussed earlier this week ton into tom is on. neg trof and east flow. just a glance

  2. VICKI

    Here is a possible plan B for you and it is only in MILLIS, not all that far from you.
    As long as you don’t mind driving in the snow,
    this would be a spectacular take for you and Mac, especially with light snow falling.
    Does NOT require getting out of your vehicle. I have seen this many times. It is well worth it. Trust me.

    ALL of the details, including directions and photos are in this website:

    http://www.milliswonderland.com/directions-schedule.php

    Anyone interested, especially if you have young children or are just young at heart, take this in.

    1. That was very nice of you to send her that information. I’ll be thinking of you tonight when I’m doing an all nighter shoveling lol

    2. Thank you OS. You are Wonderful to take the time to give us that info. We have been this year but as this is the last year they will have the display I like your plan B. You can never see it too many times and we were saying that we would like to go one more time before it goes away

  3. One of my daughter’s had Christmas songs playing …… its snowing out …… Felt like Christmas morning, so I just made a full breakfest, even with bacon. πŸ™‚

    So, can I open presents now ? I’m as bad as the kids πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚

    1. Back deck is covered, lawns getting whitened a bit, nothing on the pavements….

      The fine, misty snow has transitioned to bigger snow flakes.

      I’d say visibility is about 2 miles in light snow, that periodically bursts to heavier snow, but also periods of just flurries.

    2. I’m amazed at the difference. Totally blue sky and sun here.

      And there are no presents to open. Santa hasn’t been here. Silly you!!

      1. The clouds are coming. The blue I could see to the west is now gone, replaced with clouds.

        Visibility is lowering. Snow imminent. πŸ˜€

  4. Getting dark here. Cloudy, although can still see “some” blue off to the West.
    Looks like snow, but no flakes just yet.

  5. Repost,

    Today’s 1st AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    On average, how much snow should be on the ground on this date?
    A. None
    B. 0.7”
    C. 1.3”
    D. 3.0”

    Today’s 2nd AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    How much snow fell on this date in 1975 (December 20-22)?
    ACCUWEATHER ACTUALLY GOT THIS ONE WRONG.

    A. 12.5”
    B. 14.5”
    C. 18.2”
    D. 21.3”

    Answers later today.

  6. clouds with some blue spots here in billerica, pretty cool, snow shower activity comes later today and tonight

  7. Tom, latest Observation from Marshfield. You were close

    Marshfield Airport, MA
    (KGHG) 42.0983N 70.6722W
    2 Day History

    Light Snow
    34.0 Β°F
    Last Updated: Dec 20 2014, 9:35 am EST
    Sat, 20 Dec 2014 09:35:00 -0500
    Weather: Light Snow
    Temperature: 34.0 Β°F (1.0 Β°C)
    Dewpoint: 30.2 Β°F (-1.0 Β°C)
    Relative Humidity: 87 %
    Wind: West at 4.6 MPH (4 KT)
    Wind Chill: 30 F (-1 C)
    Visibility: 1.50 miles
    Altimeter: 30.29 in Hg

    That’s decent light snow. Certainly enough so one knows it’s snowing that’s for sure!

  8. At 10 AM, winds still NW at Logan, but off the deck the are East. Just look
    at the cloud deck rolling in. DOn’t need NE wind for that snow to break out
    with the East wind above.

  9. good morning!! Heading to the y and then Christmas shoppinh, nothing but sunshine here 35.1 degrees, good day πŸ™‚

    1. You are no longer “nothing but sunshine” but under a solid overcast. Flakes should arrive there later today.

    1. That should expand and get more intense as it moves on shore.

      going to get white around these parts pretty soon.

  10. Tweat from Eric Fisher

    Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 3m3 minutes ago Boston, MA
    We actually may be able to top 60F Christmas Eve in southern New England. Near record highs (during the overnight).

    1. The warm wedge between fronts may indeed result in that, but probably while people are sleeping and Santa is chimney hopping. πŸ˜›

  11. from Harvey

    Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB 1m1 minute ago
    Flakes have started along parts of the coastline, and will slowly spread inland later and ton #WCVB

  12. Looks as if some along coast and just inland Plymouth, south of Weymouth, cape Ann. Rest looks off shore

    Is it cold enough to stick to roads or will this mostly be grass, etc.?

    1. No it will stick. Jackpot itself I believe will be the city south. Will start sticking tonight. Let’s say boston gets atleast 2 inches but I think more that’s from start to finish sometime later tomorrow. I think the flakes may even be in the air till Monday. So that top amount is over a long period of time.

    2. It will have a lot of trouble sticking to roads, especially around the city and near the coast. Temperatures not cold enough at the surface. Only briefly may it do that if it is “heavy” enough in certain areas during the hours of darkness.

  13. Models will start to trend a little slower now with the midweek system so that the core of the rain will come through in the early hours of Christmas Day. What may end up happening however is we may be in for “one foggy Christmas Eve” if things shake out the way I think they may. 4 days away, still many details to work out.

  14. CAUTION: Don’t try to verify the entire weekend forecast based on what’s going on this afternoon. It will take time to get the snow showers to become more numerous and spread inland in eastern MA and eventually to RI. Even Charlie-land will see some flakes.

  15. Going with C for both trivia questions.
    Just got done with my holiday shopping. It feels like snow but I don’t think the snow gets to western CT.
    Hadi I am really rooting for your Redskins today and hope RG III has the game of his life and beat the Eagles. If that happens Cowboys win tomorrow they win the NFC East.

  16. 32 degrees here in Hingham. Some flakes were falling as early as 9am here (just as the cloud deck was rolling in…it was pretty cool to watch). Now a fine light snow has been falling for the past 30 minutes or so. NWS is saying there is an outside chance of NW Plymouth County and into adjacent Norfolk country could see localized 3-4 inch accumulations.

    Just finished up installing a new Graphics card in the older (4 year old) desktop. The new desktop doesn’t need a new one thankfully.

  17. I disagree with you tk it will stick in the city once dark hits. It will be in the low 20s it will stick to roads and walkways .

    1. It “may” very well stick. Low 20s, NOT in your life. Not tonight.
      Perhaps 28 or 29 at the lowest IF that. πŸ˜€

  18. For the Trivia Quiz = D & C.

    If those temps end up being near 60 or higher on Christmas Eve, then Santa had better remove a layer of clothing underneath his red suit. πŸ˜€

    I am now wondering if SNE could end up warmer than some areas of the southern U.S. on Christmas Eve night?? The maps look like the cold rushes into the Midwest and deep south first.

  19. 1st flakes in JP 1:42 PM. Just spitting a flake or 2 here and there. No real organized
    steady snow, but there are flakes in the air. πŸ˜€

  20. FWI, the CMC-RDPS a.k.a. GEM-REG / Quebec (mesh: 10 km) Fr En
    Has Boston in the JACKPOT later this evening early tomorrow AM.

    At least .2 inch qpf, if not more.

  21. It’s 34 now in the city and that’s what they have for a low come 1am find that very hard to believe oldsalty it’s only going to drop a few degrees. As I said last night I think the low temps there showing are to wrong. I could be totally way off here but I’m sticking with it.

    1. It will NOT drop much. It will drop to a bit below freezing.

      say 32, 31 maybe 30 at the airport. Where you work, Perhaps, 30 or 29 stretching it to 28.

        1. I was saying no way to the intensity . I know the intensity that’s out there now but it’s realy tonight. As I type it’s coming down good here now. The no way was kidding.

    1. I was outside an actually saw some, but then they stopped.
      I’ll bet if you look very carefully, you’ll see a lonely flake here and there.

  22. Looking over some Noaa information they do have done rain mixing in down here but I suspect that would be more towards the canal area as I think it’s mostly rain for the cape.

    1. Yea you know what old salty it was just here as it came down the hardest since 11 am when it started. But it’s been doing this on and off thing the entire time . Nothing here now.

  23. Mostly just an overcast day here in Wrentham. We had a little sun this morning, and I’ve seen a few flurries dancing around, but nothing much. Shouldn’t be more than inch in this area. I’d be interested in reports from areas like Scituate and Marshfield though, looks like the snow has been steady there, but I don’t know that it’s sticking; pretty marginal temperatures.

  24. Realy coming down here now fast in pembroke. Grass , cars and roofs easily getting covered it’s showtime. Temp is slowly dropping at 32 here now down from 36.

      1. It should be a wet snow for Boston tonight as well John. The temps won’t get all that much below freezing. I would say 28-32F at the lowest.

      2. That is due to very marginal temps. Not going below the upper 20s in the city, probably 30 or 29 LOWEST at the airport. Even Worcester, middle 20s lowest late tonight.

  25. I was just outside and still no flakes in Dorchester, but the leading edge of the snow is at the Braintree Split (Rtes.3 & 128) moving slowly north-northwestward towards Boston. I believe this will be an after-dark (if not after- dinner) event for the city northward. The South Shore appears to be getting it good.

  26. Quite an interesting 5 mile ride from eastern Marshfield to western Pembroke.

    In Brant Rock, rain showers ….. Some heavy.

    1/2 mile west in my neighborhood …. Mixed rain and snow.

    Marshfield Center ….. Snow, but stuggling to stick.

    Another mile west and perhaps 30ft of elevation …. Starts to stick.

    John, you might appreciate this …… Out at Kohl’s in western Pembroke, moderate snow, definitely accumulating. (10 million people shopping too. πŸ™‚ )

  27. Answer to Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quizzes.

    On average, how much snow should be on the ground on this date?
    A. None
    B. 0.7”
    C. 1.3”
    D. 3.0”

    The answer is B.

    How much snow fell on this date in 1975 (December 20-22)?
    ACCUWEATHER ACTUALLY GOT THIS ONE WRONG.

    A. 12.5”
    B. 14.5”
    C. 18.2”
    D. 21.3”

    I think the answer is C.

  28. Both the Boston Harbor buoy and PTown have winds at 060. Temps are 38F and 39F respectively. There’s the coastal front.

  29. The batches of moderate snow just inland from the South Shore will be diminishing over the next hour or so and much of what fell will then melt. A little later tonight the focus may shift north of Boston especially Essex County as there is a tilt in the wind more to the east.

      1. There is a small mesoscale kink in the pressure pattern and a coastal front that will turn it a bit more east near the coast.

      1. Coastal front probably sets up shop just west of the main part of the city and it will have difficulty sticking on the city streets. Even when it does for a short while when intensity lets up it will start melting.

        1. I respectfully disagree streets and walkways get snow cover . I’m guessing and could be totaly wrong but I’m sticking with it. But your the professional met here not I .

      1. In boston or Weymouth. I suspect that might be the ban thats been down here say for the last 1-2 hrs . Since has tamed down a bit.

        1. Tk like I said your the expert but I believe this heads toward the city as we get deeper into the night and wee hrs of Sunday.

            1. Tempatures not cold enough at the surface and will have a hard time sticking to roadways especially in the city is what you said above. Just saying.

            2. That it would have a hard time sticking. You do know that I’m playing with you and have the highest respect for you.

  30. Even the GFS is trending slower with the Christmas Eve warm frontal passage and Christmas Morning cold frontal passage. The only somewhat remarkable thing that may occur with that system here is a gusty southerly wind and very mild air sometime Christmas Eve, probably late evening and overnight.

    High wind and heavy rain forecasts that were made far too soon will probably not verify in the sense they were likely understood (an all-out wind/rain storm). Nope. This will be 2 fronts from a strong parent low passing well northwest of our area. And what’s even funnier to me is that event isn’t even unusual, even for what will then be early Winter.

  31. Thanks to everyone for your help in advising for our trip to Fatima in holliston. A bit of spitting snow when we arrived which made it feel even more festive. Mac held up better than some of the adults :). Beautiful night for a Christmas stroll with music and lights and all kids, significant others and grandkids.

      1. :). Please do not be sorry. He is doing well and starting to walk around the house on his own. The cancer is being kept at bay. We have much to be thankful for this Christmas season !!

  32. Edelman out for game. He failed concussion test. Two games left rest him and don’t force him now, well they have no choice now. Huge loss. Look for a dogfight of a game tomorrow as jets and Ryan want to derail pats home field hopes .

    1. John, I think they could let Grey play More along with Blount and I would expect them to use Vereen as a short receiver and Lafell and Gronk as usual. The loss of Edleman means they need a short range receiver.

      1. Totally agree on Grey though I think he’s starting to get more playing time . He can run good with the ball as I like him . Just don’t screw with bill and be on time lol.

  33. Home from S. Weymouth. Wild scene down there. Was snowing Moderately. Snow everywhere! Roads, Rt. 18, and coming home rt. 3 was slushy and then snow covered
    as we approached Braintree. Very slow traffic. Moderate snow to Milt0n where there
    was a rapid drop off to light in Neponset to virtually nothing in JP. In JP roads were
    dry and it looked as though snow was just barely starting.

    S. Weymouth looked like a Winter wonderland. The Nieces and Nephews were out
    having an awesome snowball fight. PLENTY of snow for that.

    Roads were a SLIPPERY MESS!!! VERY VERY SLIPPERY.

    Just snowing very lightly here at the moment. Nothing on the ground.

    What a difference in less than 20 miles. Amazing!

    1. But that scene is moving north towards you . Last time I checked the live Doppler had light snow in boston. As the night goes deeper look for the snow to start sticking there as it was down here. Good luck and enjoy. I’m going to check map out again now.

    2. Crazy isnt it OS.

      We took a ride over to Pembroke to see some lights and, as you described, a different world.

      John, you might be correct …… However, 2 things might work against Boston snow …… (1) Boston’s temp is 35F, the wind is now partially off the ocean …. (2) the first area of “lift” that helped form the steady snow on the south shore isnt headed towards Boston. I think it may be slowly moving westward as it weakens. Another area of “lift” may develop north of Boston and so, Boston may be in the middle and thus, not see much.

      1. Tom excellent analysis and I believe TK alluded to that.

        Boston is TOAST.

        BUMMER!!! Logan is NOT going to add to it’s misely .3 inch
        December total! πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† :lol; 😈 😈

  34. I don’t know what is going on at Logan, but here in Dorchester very light snow with cartops, rooftops and grass covered and the streets just wet. I am getting the feeling that I won’t be using my shovel until at least the year 2015. πŸ˜‰

        1. Unless I’m reading the live 5 Doppler wrong it’s blue in your are which means snow.salter just went by here

  35. NEXRAD radar drying up. End of first impulse?
    Snow virtually STOPPED here, what little there was.

    I am disappointed to say the least.

    At least I got to see it in S. Weymouth. IT was awesome.

      1. So I’m reading it correct ? I don’t want you to think I’m making this up . Looks like it’s just under it right say in the Quincy area.

  36. Funny how a distance of only 5 miles can make. S Weymouth was a winter wonderland while Hingham after a promising start became a slightly slushy drizzely mess.

    1. Same here ….

      It was neat watching the temp in the truck.

      Around 28F, 29F in Pembroke (nearly 1 inch of snow on ground with slushy roads), 5 miles further east in eastern Marshfield, the truck temp JUMPED suddenly to 34F, the wind was blowing more easterly, it was raining, earth was green and brown.

      1. Even now the Wundermap stations here in Hingham and Hull are reporting ENE winds while the Weymouth station was reporting light NW winds.

  37. I’m getting 36 in boston now and cloudy but most of the night stays at 28 as the night goes on according to my phone. Harvey yesterday was thinking low temps for later tonight.

  38. Mother Nature will ALWAYS have the final say, no matter what our best efforts lead us to prognosticate. If we can be reasonably accurate a majority of the time, that’s success, and about the best we can hope for.

    So following that statement comes this prognostication: After checking on current states of ENSO, QBO, and MJO and forecasts of their trends in the next few weeks, we indeed have a return to a cold pattern coming at the end of December and part of January, however probably accompanied by below normal precipitation. What comes next is NOT what snow lovers want to hear, but the expected states of MJO and QBO now point to a short-lived cold pattern and a lengthy mild interlude beginning by the middle of January. Not highly confident in this forecast, but moderately so at this point. There are too many signs to ignore right now.

    1. You really are the GRINCH in disguise. You could have waited until AFTER Christmas for that gem. πŸ˜€

      1. Tom Redskins did their part yesterday in upseting the Eagles and helped us out now. Now we got to do our part.
        Two great football games yesterday especially the Chargers 49ers game with the Chargers down 21 points and coming
        back winning that game in overtime.

        1. The Eagles-Skins score surprised me, but I think the loss of Nick Foles finally caught up to the Eagles.

          The Chargers have given themselves a chance. Baltimore has a difficult road game at Texas.

  39. Usually, these ocean effect events don’t live up to the forecast, but I think this one has been a decent precip producer for a small area just away from the ocean on the south shore.

  40. Good morning from north, 33.5 degrees no snow on any pavement with patchy coatings, i had a funny feeling this wasn’t gonna be much more than a few snow showers, o well nice while it lasted.

    It’s Gameday!!! Go Patriots!! πŸ™‚

  41. I havent been too impressed by any snow scenario to date this year …..

    I have nothing specific to offer, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Logan had a seasonal snow total between 5 to 10 inches when 2014 turns into 2015.

    Big idea …. Maybe in the last week of December, the atmosphere will configure enough to allow Canada cold (yes, actual cold air in Canada) to meet with moisture from the southern branch of the jet stream over our region.

    We’ll see. πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚

      1. It could, but I doubt it.

        If you figure the next 90 days and average a decent disturbance once every 4 or 5 days, that would be about 20 precip opportunities.

        Winter’s like 2011-2012 are so easy to remember because they are so anomolous.

        Even if 10-15% of those 20 precip events are snow, thats 2-3 events and because we live so close to a moisture source and the gulf stream, I’m feeling better than even odds that the region (and Logan) will have at least 30 inches of snow before the cold season ends.

        1. I’m feeling VERY pessimistic right now.

          Where’s Hadi when you need him? He’d get me out of this funk.

          I predicted 94 inches. he he he ha ha ha πŸ˜† πŸ‘Ώ

          1. I’m trying OS πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚

  42. Good morning. Yawn. Another boring weather day.

    Although events yesterday truly materialized South of Boston, it was a BUSTORAMA
    in the City. Very localized event (Mesoscale).

    Add TK’s wonderful news, this is beginning to look like a NO SNOW WINTER!!!!

    This is HORRID.

    I guess I have to look on the bright side. It saves $$$ on the heating bill.

      1. Charlie,

        I’m always thinking. My brain NEVER rests. You would NOT
        want to be in there.

        I just happen to like SNOW. I can’t help it. I was born that way.

        Yes, even when it costs me, disrupts traffic, closes the city etc etc etc. It’s in my blood.

        When I can’t have it, well then, I have to look elsewhere. πŸ˜€ πŸ˜€

        GO PATS!!

  43. Latest GFS depiction of “New Years Eve” storm. Looking Less and less LIKELY
    that it will be a SNOW STORM. Looking more and more like it will be an inside RUNNER. But of course it is a LONG WAY out there, so we’ll just watch it. BUT
    I don’t like the looks of it so far.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014122106&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=240

    Early signs from the Euro, although timing different, also point to an inside runner
    if not a cutter.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2014122100&region=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=240

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2014122100&region=USA&var=HGT_500mb&hour=240

  44. Another thought and it has no scientific basis, just an opinion ….

    I think many snow events that get us aren’t the ones the models see coming 10 days out.

    Its usually the ones that show 3 to 5 days prior to the event.

  45. Updated blog posted! Longer than I intended. It may be used for The Week Ahead post after editing later, but we’ll see… πŸ™‚

    1. Wow looks like you have lots of sunshine illuminating your sand-drifts there this morning. πŸ˜‰ That may be the closest you get to seeing any fine particulate matter drifted about like that this season. πŸ˜‰ LOL

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