Weekend Bookends

94 Comments

8:18AM

The 2 weekend days in this forecast (today and next Saturday) will be the mild and unsettled ones as a cold front slides through southern New England today and low pressure arrives from the southwest next Saturday, and the 5 days between (which include New Year’s Day) will be dry and colder as high pressure dominates and storminess stays to the south.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers this morning, ending west to east by midday. Highs around 50. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusting 20-25 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows around 30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 15. High 35.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 15. High 30.
THURSDAY – NEW YEAR’S DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 15. High 35.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 40.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Mix to rain. Low 30. High 50.

94 thoughts on “Weekend Bookends”

  2. I am surprised by how many people are quiting on winter. I am not even close as we sit here on Dec 28th. Forecast is going exactly as forecasted.

    1. NOT exactly. Cold has been severely delayed.
      AND to add insult to injury, it “may” not last.

      I’m not ready to give up just yet, but I am FAR closer than you are. šŸ˜€
      I’d like to see some signs that we will have Winter this season.

      1. This actually IS Winter. It’s one of the many patterns Winter can present to us, which to me is why it’s so neat. So many possibilities here. Many parts of the world have the same pattern, or one of only a couple possible set-ups, year after year. I like the bigger variety. šŸ™‚

  3. Thanks TK. Had some briefly moderate rain here in Wrentham just a few minutes ago, with a somewhat enhanced band of showers passing over us.

  4. Good morning and many thanks TK.

    Tissues, nah. No surprises.

    My biggest concern at the moment is Las Vegas on New Year’s eve.
    My daughter and Sil will be there. They have a flight leaving Las Vegas at
    11:59 PM New Years Eve. SNOW is in the forecast. Anywhere from just snow showers, an inch or 2 all the way to the GFS 8 inches or so. Of course which model
    to believe? Looking at the set up, I’m worried that it might be MORE than an inch
    or 2.`

    It is a quick get away for them. They fly out tomorrow and come back New Year’s eve.

    With regards to snow, LV would be somewhat like Washington DC. ie, a couple of inches would shut down the City and more importantly the airport. My SIL has
    to be back New Years Day as he had commitments for work.

    TK Should I advise them to cancel OR do you think they will be OK?
    I’m leaning towards telling them to cancel.

    They aren’t afraid of any SNOW. SIL drives in it all. They just can’t afford to have the
    airport close down.

    Many thanks

  5. Vicki,

    Sorry for the delay, but here is the next one.

    Las Vegas Ski and Snowboard Resort at Lee Canyon Nevada.
    47 mile drive from Las Vegas. About 35 miles as the crow flies.

    http://photos2.meetupstatic.com/photos/event/5/9/6/d/highres_2842893.jpeg

    http://www.skilasvegas.com/winter/headers/IMGP9183.jpg/interior-header?_ts=20131203193326

    http://blog.vegas.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/LVSSR_mountain_featured.jpg

    http://blog.vegas.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/LVSSR_mountain_featured.jpg

    AVERAGE ANNUAL SNOWFALL 240 inches (610 cm)
    NUMBER OF TRAILS 30 total
    10% beginner, 45% intermediate, 45% advanced
    NUMBER OF LIFTS Three total
    2 quad chairlift,1 triple chairlift
    ELEVATION
    Base lodge: 8,510 feet (2,594 meters)
    Top of Chair One: 9,310 feet (2,838 meters)
    Top of Chair Two: 9,370 feet (2,856 meters)
    Summit: 11,289 feet (3,441 meters)

    1. Beautiful. And even though the pics are not from this area, they remind me of views from my skiing youth. I loved the view down at the base lodge. There was always something about standing on the mountain and looking not only out but down that I loved

  6. TK thank you

    Joshua, my husband said his cousin told him there is no snow in Stowe VT. They are on the side of a small mountain in Morrisville above Stowe and no snow there either. Don’t know the elevation but will try to find

    OS. Off to see your links. Thank you in advance šŸ™‚

  7. Advice to any and all…never buy a house with a downward sloping driveway. Every time it rains I have to blow leaves out and collect them. I am the only person in my area still cleaning leaves up since any and all leaves in the area manage to find their way to my driveway. Too much work.

    1. I always wondered about those type of driveways.
      Every time I see one, I say to myself “good luck when it rains”.

      Sorry you are having so much trouble.

      1. Mac always commented that he would not to live downhill from the street. I never gave it a lot of thought. Sorry WW šŸ™

      1. Reminds me of the last house we lived in where it had patio off the basement that had a drain that led to French drain pipe that went under the house. I was constantly clearing leaves all year long. I feel your pain!

    3. We have a downward sloping driveway but it’s very long and gradual and spreads out at the end so we don’t have an issue with water and not too much of one with leaves even though my neighbors that share the driveway only clean up their leaves about one out of every 3 years. šŸ˜‰

      All of their fallen leaves continue to sit packed and mushed on the ground. At least they stopped blowing over here.

    1. Thanks Tom. Yes I read that. The only hope there is that so far they have
      NOT included Clark County, indicating they think the worst of it would
      be just to the North of LV and NW of LV. GFS PASTES down town LV
      with up to 8 inches of Snow. I wonder what their record is???

      1. I’m not sure what the record is ……..

        Hopefully, one way or the other ….. There will be more clarity in another day or so towards what will happen in Las Vegas.

        1. They fly out tomorrow evening.
          They have to make a decision by about 4PM tomorrow.

          If it were I, I’d go. I once got stuck there 2 extra days, not because of snow there, but snow back East backing up ALL of Jet Blue’s operations.

          There are worse places in the world to be stuck.

          But my SIL has a work commitment on New Year’s Day.

      2. The largest snow storm to ever hit Las Vegas occurred from January 10-12, 1949. Snow did accumulate from that storm to the tune of 9.7 inches at the city’s official weather station. But the snow was gone before long.

        1. My early feeling is that they are going to be in a little dead zone in an area surrounded by higher elevations that will wring out more of the moisture. I figure 2 inches or less and with temperatures near or above freezing there most of the event, only briefly below freezing Wednesday night.

          Let’s take one more look tomorrow.

          1. Many thanks TK. I appreciate your take on this.

            It agrees with the LV NWS assessment as well.

            CMC and EURO only call for an inch or 2 there
            as well. It’s that silly GFS and to a lesser extent
            the NAM that wants to pile on. šŸ˜€

            1. The NAM still has a lot of issues with precipitation amounts, and is especially bad outside of 48 hours.

  10. So let me get this straight… La and those areas in the southwest could get as much or more than what we have had all season and so could parts of southern italy… good grief, So many things are going against us.
    1. snow in hawii
    2 higher rocky mountain snow
    3 rainy southwest
    4 possible snow event southwest
    5 possible snow event in parts of southern europe.
    someone in my family is in thier senior year of high school
    All these events usually leads to below normal snowfall here in southern new england.

    1. Desert snow in the western US and Mediterranean snow in Europe is a classic result of this QBO, MJO, NAO setup.

      You may be onto something with the high school senior year index. šŸ˜‰

  11. QBO & MJO continue to be the enemy of East Coast snow lovers and will continue now to do this until LATE January, I’m pretty confident.

    I’m not falling into the trap again of forecasting a pattern change TOO SOON.

    MJO hopped over the good phases contrary to some forecasts recently, and will now slog through phases 4 through 6, which is a MILD January pattern for the East. Based on this, my original idea of cold/dry for January is out the window and replaced with mild/dry. We will have cold intrusions like the one Monday-Friday, but they are just “normal cold” for the most part and storms, when they do come through, are mild. We’re going to keep the NAO strongly POSITIVE for a few weeks more before any kind of reversal is possible.

    ECMWF ensembles show basically the same pattern holding through January 20, and that is a SE ridge, a Greenland trough, a trough in the central and western US, and a big ridge from the east central Pacific into Alaska. The operational runs are too far east with these features.

    With hesitation, I say that it looks like this pattern breaks down during the last week of January as the NAO goes to neutral then negative, MJO moves into phase 7, and QBO comes off its strongly positive phase. 3 things have to happen. We’ll monitor…

    I know my 41.1 for the contest for Boston’s snow total cannot be changed, but as far as long range forecasting goes, I hearby tweak it down into the 30s somewhere. šŸ˜‰ We will snow in February.

    1. For the past several weeks, I have been of the opinion that we will not see snow til after Jan 15th. I can’t see anything before that. I do not even see frontal or ocean effect snow showers though I know that can come at any time. Not great for the snow lovers.

      1. There is always the risk of a quick snow event we can’t see coming too far in advance: A glorified snow squall event, a clipper that acts like the little dog that bites as well as barks, or a perfectly timed southern stream wave just tapping into colder air. But the chances of these are fleeting. It has to happen just right.

    2. With no evidence to back it up I do not think it is wise to change your numbers as I honestly believe the snow number will still be decent . Every year at this time it’s the same thing stick a fork in winter when it’s a week old that’s not what I’m saying you are doing by any means. Like you also said those sneaky little systems can pop up and at times with the right setup can drop 2-4 inches . I know what the guidance shows us but just realy think there will be a patern change later than we thought and perhaps giving us February and march for good snow events.

      1. I have all the evidence I need to drop them. We came in a few inches lower than I would have expected in December. We’ll come in lower in January in all likelihood, not that I was expecting above normal snow – I wasn’t. But we’re in a virtual “no-snow” pattern outside of those renegade occurrences which are no guarantee. And with no strong evidence of these in the foreseeable future and no big signal for pattern change before mid January, the smart bet is to adjust downward. That drops my 41.1 at LEAST into the upper 30s.

        Even the big hurricane forecasters adjust their #’s up or down early to mid hurricane season. There is no shame in doing this as a meteorologist. It’s not an exact science, as overused as that phrase is. It’s just the truth. I did not get November temps right. I forecast a pattern change in late December which is nowhere to be seen. I learned from these 2 mistakes, and going forward my confidence is actually above average at the moment. It took me a while to figure out that MJO and QBO were the enemies of myself and some other forecasters. But we got a lock on it. Now of course there are always other surprises that can occur (the inexact aspect again) but we have to go with what we see.

    1. But not that much of a surprise for this pattern. Saw this a bunch of times in the 1990s to early 2000s.

      1. Interesting. I did some research. Last time Rome saw meaningful snow was during the winter of 2011-2012, in February to be exact. Not sure if there’s any correlation to snow in that part of Europe and low snow totals for the east coast of the US but thought it was interesting.

  14. If this mild snowless winter continues into January, kiss the Pats home field advantage goodbye in terms of weather. A game in Foxboro on Dec 28th and its 50 deg at gametime.

  15. Hi! Happy New Year to All!! It has been a difficult Holiday season as the only living relative on my dad’s side of the family, my uncle, had a brain hemorrhage and is unable to talk or walk. He seems to be shutting down, mostly sleeping and not eating, as after 80 years of independence and living on his own all his life as somewhat a free – spirit, I think he is unwilling to fight only to live a diminished life. He has no family except for my siblings and I, so we have made promise long ago to care for him. Then a few days later my sister’s son was killed in a car accident. My sister, my brother in law, and my niece have been far stronger than I could be that is without question. So this holiday season has not felt like Christmas to me. Already looking forward to a better 2015 and the promise of a future joy-filled Holiday season.

    As for the weather, TK is just so good. His explanation of the pattern we are in, is spot on and Ace you really found a great recent analog. That 2011-2012 winter is a pretty good comparison. I saw in the previous blog a mention of the winter of 2010-2011. My worst northeast forecasting season ever! I was to slow to adjust to the persistence of pattern and was biased by my inaccurate seasonal predictions and did not move off them quick enough and then during the events my forecasting style of looking for moderating factors to the high end of model QPF output backfired repeatedly. Since then though my trusty doubt of all things modeled has been in good form….

    I do agree with TK that the UKMET has been a quiet champ over the last month. GFS has gotten a bit better in the mid range but it is continually too quick to signal significant pattern change beyond 240 hours. Oddly enough my always ignored 6z GFS has actually been an occasionally solid performer during the last 10 days. ECMWF OP has had plenty of misses in the mid-range over the last 14 days with systems appearing and then disappearing or it over amping the QPF by as much as double, but is has been doing that for nearly a year and a half. Its enesemble mean has been really bad at times too. I do think the ECMWF monthlies does have a decent handle on the pattern. It is funny in the previously mentioned winter of 2010-2011 my go to model was the GGEM / GGEM ENS, something akin to the UKMET this year. Again important that forecasters need to have recognition of pattern and recognition of current model performance quality or inadequacy in a particular pattern.

    I was always on the later end of this pattern transitioning to a cold / dry one, but this current pattern is going to last well into the 2nd third of January and then I wonder if after a brief dry/cold stretch we go into a warmer but stormier pattern that will produce snow chances particularly during the 1st half of February but as we get post February 15th might trend just warm enough as meteorological winter starts in transition to spring to turn some of those systems more wet than white?

    All of the above is speculation, but TK is right on with ramping down snowfall amounts. I was at 39″ or so in Boston and I am probably thinking 32-36″ now. Again all it takes is maybe one system to throw all this out the window. Vigorous northern stream shortwave that energizes at the perfect time or a slow moving southern stream system with anomalous northern extent to its precip field that gives us 12-24 hours of light snow that piles up. All sorts of scenarios to watch out for.

    One other thing. I have updates on the changes made to the GFS and its implementation schedule if anyone is interested, I will post.

    PS when it does “go live” WARNING! WARNING! stay away…..

    3. Im sorry to hear, hope for a better 2015 year for you and your family, its very hard to see someone go expecially when its a slow decline

  16. Comments on the 12z Euro anyone? Pretty interesting. Maybe the system for next weekend isn’t quite as much a cut and dry Lakes Cutter as we thought. The GFS upgrade has also occasionally shown what this Euro run shows now.

    Sorry to hear about your family difficulties JMA, always nice to hear your thoughts.

    2. We have to be careful of the ECMWF operational run as it is having a tendency to put the ridge too far east in the eastern Pacific. Ensembles are doing better.

  18. JMA…

    My deepest sympathies regarding the difficulties you are going through. There will be happier times ahead, but I wish you strength during the difficult time now.

    Thank you as always for your thoughts on the weather. You were first on the right track out of the 2 of us with the persistence of the milder scenario. Once I caught onto the MJO/QBO “misbehaving” it was time for me to shift gears. I basically agree, as you know, with all you have stated above.

    Looking forward to hearing more of your thoughts as the patterns unfold, but more importantly we’ll all be thinking of you.

  19. On or about Wednesday, January 7, 2015, beginning with the 1200
    Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) model run, the NWS
    Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL) will implement a
    refresh of the Global Forecast System (GFS)

    This refresh includes updated equations for temperature, dewpoint, daytime maximum and nighttime minimum temperature, winds, probability of precipitation occurrence, precipitation type, and snowfall amounts at METAR sites. Guidance for maximum and minimum temperature at COOP sites also was redeveloped for the cool season.

    Going to be full on Crap Show!

  21. TK right on with your ECMWF analysis. Yes it has placed the pacific ridge too far east. That 12z run is particularly awful with how strong of a ridge it tries to develop in the western US in an obvious zonal flow and then creates some strange shallow mid atlantic trough that breaks down the SE ridge in 6 hours….Beware of the ECMWF ENS Mean. I have had to dig into its members to kind of make my own manual mean. Pain in the butt. GEFS at 00z and 12z has been ok, but kind of have to do the same thing with that too.

  22. Tk says: QBO & MJO continue to be the enemy of East Coast snow lovers and will continue now to do this until LATE January, Iā€™m pretty confident.

    AWESOME! Just what I always wanted hear.

    Why doesn’t it just stay that way until April? yeah, that’s the ticket.
    WINTER is CANCELED!!!!

  23. You won’t hear me say this all that often, but the 12z GFS of the operational runs today is, IMO, the winner, and I can envision that entire run right into 300+ hours verifying.

    This could mean:
    -chilly but dry Monday-Friday
    -weekend mild rain event Saturday to windy mini cold shot Sunday
    -stronger cutter or inside runner system about January 6
    -brief windy cold shot January 7 through 9
    -storm goes out to sea far south during the colder period around January 10
    -trending warmer setting up a rain event toward mid month

          1. Things are good. I didn’t see your answer re a puppy. Sorry. With all of the family fun stuff I think I have missed a lot of posts. Did you get a puppy?

            1. Yes we did. She came home Tuesday night. She is just about 8weeks old. The plan back fired on us. We picked her out 3weeks ago as I stumbled across a golden doodle breeder who prides herself in healthy dogs. We did not think Molly would be here for Xmas so thought it would be good to heal but my poor Molly is still here comfortable but not sure how much longer she can go. So that’s the story. We all picked her out as a family. She is only 6 pounds now will get between 45-50. Man a puppy is like a baby and I’ll need another vacation alone after this week lol. I pretty much get her to pee on command and she sat on command earlier but it’s still early ant quite the chewer/ nipper but she doesn’t know any better. Cute dog looks just like Molly.

              2. Exciting to have a puppy in the house john, enjoy! Ours is 5 1/2 months old now and still has all the puppy tendencies. Did u happen to get your puppy from a breeder in Halifax?

                2. No ace Taunton. She’s cute. Today has been the best day for her. Hope the piddling in the house doesn’t last to long . I’m working diligently with her and have all week to work with. Has a little parasite but vet is on top of it with meds and special diet. Thinking about also enrolling her in a puppy training class.

                4. She ate like a horse and was aggressive with food but found out she had worms. Once the vets got rid of the pesky parasites she got a lot better. Still has a healthy appetite though.

    1. Enjoy John! We were looking at pics and videos of our pup last night and cant believe how much shes grown since we got her in Sept. Shes now 5 1/2 months old and just hit 50lbs. Shes gonna be a beast. We’ve done trainings on our own so far but are considering a few classes. She was housebroken in a few weeks with crate training, best thing ever, not a single accident since.

        1. None now just yesterday. Seems fine but vet said need to watch closely in changes but vet is feeling good. Thank ace.

  27. Still think 1996-1997 is a good `simile.’ After a wet and mild December we had a sneaky snowstorm in January of 97: about 5 inches of fluffy snow. Rest of the month was dry and mild, with a couple of minor rain events. February was quite mild, too. Some front-end snow from two southeasters. Then, March turned relatively cold (I remember feeling as cold in mid March that year as I had felt all winter), with a mini nor’easter (6 inches or so) mid-month, followed by a warm-up, followed by a big snowstorm and 7-10 days of way below normal temps.

    I doubt whether it’ll snow in April this year. It hardly ever does. I see a sneaky mini storm or two, but a total of 15 inches in Boston may be all that this winter writes. And it may be as mild as 2011-2012, which would be quite a difference from last year.

  28. Hi all, I am back from my holiday away… Hope everyone enjoyed there holiday, flooding rink tonight (fingers crossed)

  29. Boston has never had a totally snowless (0.0″) January. The least was 0.3″ set in January 1913.

    Scary thought…The 2011-2012 Winter could end up looking quite “snowy” in comparasion to this current winter.

  30. Again I will say it again way too soon for anyone to be saying no snow etc… We live in a region with a volatile climate that can change very quickly. One slow storm and boom we have double digit snows. I am shocked so many people are not thinking this. We don’t live in Dallas. Sure it’s been warmer than average etc..but it’s Dec 28 not Feb 28th? I Don’t understand the concern yet.

    1. Hadi I agree with you. While I don’t call it throwing in the towel because in many ways a winter like this is as interesting weather wise to me as a snow filled one, there will be snow this winter. There will be some (if not much) measurable snow in January and I feel reasonably strong about some decent snows the first half of February. We will see if I am right, one must be willing to adjust as synoptic conditions become more clear.

      TK the 12z GFS / GEFS, if for only one run, has got this nailed in my opinion.

    2. Hadi I agree with you it’s the same thing here winter after winter, where is the snow? Patience is a good practice. I dont even like it but I know enough it’s coming there’s just no way around it unless it was Dallas like you said.

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