Quick Update / New Year’s Eve & Day Forecast

7:27AM

This update only slows the timing of the unsettled weather system expected on the weekend, behind which a shot of windy and very cold air is expected. Up until the weekend, high pressure and chilly/dry weather will continue to dominate, including for First Night & New Year’s Day.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows middle 10s to around 20s. Wind light NW to W.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT – NEW YEAR’S EVE: Mostly clear. Evening temps 20s. Overnight lows 15-20. Wind light W.
THURSDAY – NEW YEAR’S DAY: Partly cloudy. Highs in the 30s. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 35.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Night snow to rain. Low 20. High 40.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain ending as mix/snow showers. Low 35. High 45.
MONDAY: Sun & clouds, windy. Low 15. High 30.

268 thoughts on “Quick Update / New Year’s Eve & Day Forecast”

  1. Thanks for the update TK. I’ve been procrastinating assembling my new snowblower as it’s in the garage in a million pieces. Is it safe to say I have some time before I will need it?

  2. Thanks TK. Going to feel like winter today.
    From NWS out of Upton, NY for next POTENTIAL storm system
    THE DIFFERENCES LIE IN STRENGTH OF THESE ENERGIES AND
    TIMING/DEGREE OF PHASING…WHICH REFLECTS IN TRACK DIFFERENCES OF
    INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST FOR
    THE WEEKEND. SBU CSTAR SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS INDICATING THIS
    UNCERTAINTY…PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM…MAY BE
    ORIGINATING FROM EVOLUTION OF A BOMBING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF
    RUSSIA OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS AND RESULTANT DOWNSTREAM WAVE PACKET.
    SO MAY STILL TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS TILL GREATER
    CONVERGENCE/CONFIDENCE IN MODELS SOLUTIONS.

    1. Interesting. Thank you.

      As much as we would like it not to be, you KNOW this thing will end
      up a CUTTER. πŸ˜€

  3. retrac, re: Brady – I dont understand it either. The move doesn’t give the Pats more cap room, so why the restructure? I read something about 24 million more the Pats have in cash. What does that mean exactly? I also read this allows the Pats to cut Brady in the future and not owe him anything in guaranteed money. I’m with you, i smell something else cooking.

    1. That team NEVER does something other than in a cold hard calculating way.
      There is a REASON, we just don’t know what it is at the moment.

      I sure hope it benefits the TEAM and NOT it’s owner!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
      he he he, ha ha ha. yeah sure!

      1. I don’t think they’ll mess with Brady. I think the purpose is to help sign some unrestricted free agents. Brady gave up some but kept the injury clause intact so that if he were to get hurt he gets paid. Bradys no dummy he is a very smart business orientated man. What we need to focus on right now is Baltimore cause we do not want to face them in the playoffs at all they are trouble for us. So I’m a steelers fan come Saturday. I believe if steelers win I think we would face Cincinnati.

        1. “The restructuring doesn’t free up $24 million in cap space. Instead, Brady changed the language of his contract so that it guarantees him money only if he is injured. Now the Patriots, if they for some reason wanted to, could cut Brady without owing him money.
          Brady also now can be released from the Patriots without any liability, but he then would become an unrestricted free agent, free to command the type of guaranteed money he has agreed to surrender, Schefter wrote.”

          1. He’s gonna end up finishing up somewhere else I’m betting. Maybe not next year but it’s coming. That’s what I smell.

          2. Correct. So could this possibly mean that the team
            WANTS to move on from Brady Now. ie they have seen enough that they are satisfied the Jimmy G.
            can run the offense at Rookie Wages? They release Brady with no liability. Brady gets his BIG PAY DAY elsewhere.

            A MUTUAL SEPARATION. πŸ˜€ πŸ˜€ πŸ˜€

            1. the Injury clause was to PROTECT
              Brady in the event of an injury during the playoffs.

              I’m beginning to think this is his last year with the Pats.

              1. I thought (and may be very wrong) the skill clause meant the Pats had to hold the 24mm and that by eliminating the skill fee it freed them up to use the money. Nothing else changes?? I’d say fine if I had the confidence that they’d spend the 24mm to actually build him a team. He is certainly one of the greats but as he ages he needs more team…it cannot be the Brady show much longer.

                1. I agree everything I’m hearing is to free up money and can possibly be used for free agents that’s what I’m hearing. My opinion only Brady retires a patriot that’s just my opinion and I could be wrong.

        2. These 2 lines jumped out at me…

          “Now the Patriots, if they for some reason wanted to, could cut Brady without owing him money.”

          “…he then would become an unrestricted free agent, free to command the type of guaranteed money he has agreed to surrender…”

          1. Would it totally shock you if he ended up in San Fran in the end……especially if that stiff kaepernick continues to regress

            1. Not at all retrac. That very thing had crossed my mind. Wouldn’t it be something if he AND Belichick went there?? Mind=blown

              1. That would be something wouldn’t it. I’m not sure on Bellichick though. He seems like he’s and east coast guy only. Is his hot girlfriend from California?

                Look at us stirring it up! Hahahahahaha. Talk about hype. Lol

        3. No way Cincinnati will beat Indy and the Steelers will easily beat the Ravens. Indy comes here again. Will be a good game.

  4. I’d rather not see any contract talk at all before the playoffs. I understand business is business, however, this could have waited.

    1. 100% agree with u Joshua. Its nothing more than a distraction, something the Pats are always against. I honestly think they announced it when they did bc of the holidays and slow news time. They thought they could get one by everyone with little fanfare. I also heard teams have been given permission to talk to Josh McDaniels about their coaching vacancies. I think the rule should be changed to where no discussions can be made until after the super bowl. Far too many distractions and too much is on the line this time of year to be dealing with anything extra.

  5. Pats would play Indy, Cincy, or Baltimore in divisional round. Of those three I think Baltimore could give them a run for their money. I don’t see the Pats losing at home in the postseason. Patroits will go to Super Bowl.

  6. Just returned from north country. Beautiful weather today in Boston. Close to my perfect winter’s day temps. Even if it didn’t snow this winter, if we got lots of days like today I’d be fine. Just no more days like the ones we had from early December through Christmas Day. Those drove me bonkers.

  7. It’s funny – in a way – that technology allows us to actually wish and want weather that for hundreds of thousands of years was considered deadly and dangerous. We have the luxury of heat…housing…snow and ice removal. Our distant ancestors would think us somewhat nuts…ha.

  8. Tom brady will retire a patriots and so will Bill. Its just that Bill will be staying much longer than brady, Brady is not being traded or let go

    1. I agree 100% Matt he will retire a patriot along with some of the other greats etc my boy teddy bruski my all time favorite pat. My wife and I met him up the pro shop he was dumping cardboard in the trash lol. Took the time to talk with us and is a very nice man.

  9. Pats: No need for over analysis. Tom did this to help the team. And despite having lots of money, the owner is just like a regular fan. No greed. He wants to make the team great for the fans. The guy was my boss’s best friend. Trust me on this one. πŸ™‚

    Weather: Love the dry and cold stretch we have entered. Lasts into Saturday. Still too early for solid weekend conclusions. Smart meteorology says wait 2 more days.

    1. Thanks tk πŸ™‚

      Also I would like to add that the chance he gets traded in the next 2 yrs are very high. Good return Bet on it πŸ™‚

    2. If a certain facebook page.. cough cough dt does not open his mouth to early, we could get a storm, ever notice when he jumps onto a storm, we do not get one πŸ˜‰ I always pray when there is a storm that dt keeps his mouth shut. πŸ˜€

    3. Robert Kraft was a die hard patriot fan well before he bought the team, I believe it’s the only way to do it, other teams have owners that bought the team mainly to make money, granted you have to make money and a lot of it in this business I believe there should be some sort of rule on this, it makes a huge difference and we see it everyday with this team.

      I was listening to a radio station in LA and they were talking about the Patriots and don’t know how a team can be good for so long, it is true, NFL is very tough to stay good, if you disagree look at past dynasty’s and there stamina over the years of the dynasty, 49ers80’s/early 90’s and steelers 70’s are the biggest dynasty’s in the NFL. If the Patriots could win another championship the Patriots will be in that conversation

    4. I agree. Brady is not only an amazing athlete but he is literally a team player. Brady gave up $$ before supposedly to keep Welker….I hope this time they do right by him.

      1. Smh many don’t understand, there just resigning players and making room for future, there not doing this to give Brady weapons, that’s not how football works, sure there going to try to make the team better, if a WR is there they like they will get but brady didn’t go in there with patriots to give them money to return weapons, it’s this crazy rumor, it’s hogwash πŸ™‚

        1. It seems every deal Brady has made is done for the team and , while I am sure that there is more than we know behind the financial scene, I do not think anyone can take that away from Brady.

  10. Accuweather has….”8-12 inches of snow, mixed with rain at times, Saturday evening through Sunday morning”..

    I don’t think so.

    1. Always wise to give snow amount 4 to 5 days in advance, especially based on poorly performing models and no meteorological analysis. Yup, wise move. πŸ˜›

        1. Vegas is NOT on track for much snow. Sure there will
          be some in the air, but most action is to the East.

          Flagstaff AZ is in the jackpot area. Winter Storm
          Watch for 6-12 inches with high amounts in higher
          elevations. πŸ˜€

    2. Was that Bernie? OR someone else?
      Curious and thanks

      Just took a peek at the 12Z GFS.
      it has front end snow up just a bit from 06Z run.

      Develops a coastal, “just” a tad late for Boston area. Pretty nice for up North.

      We shall see.

      BUT 8-12 inches????? What are they smoking.

      1. Just one of their “alerts” when you open the page. I’m sure tied to zip code and God knows what models. It’ll change by the afternoon I’m sure

  11. Bernie Rayno ‏@AccuRayno 31m31 minutes ago
    videos coming…(1) SW storm and then I look at the weekend. some encouraging signs in E, mostly New England though

  12. Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB 1m1 minute ago
    Accumulating snow possible during Saturday Night, ending as rain or drizzle early Sunday #wcvb

  13. Harvey better tell Cindy than cause she has the storm going west with rain the outcome more than likely. There is nothing more that I hate than two mets from the same station saying two different things.

    1. Hey! Don’t you remember you have to check in your First Ammendment rights at the keyboard and you can’t critique a met on here??? πŸ™‚

    2. They can disagree. Not everyone interprets everything the same way. In the interest of the viewers they often will meet and discuss things, or communicate via email or phone if necessary, regarding the forecast. And Cindy’s idea is probably going to be pretty accurate in this particular case.

    1. Thank you, Keith! That is what I thought. And he is right that it is rare to see a team work this way and I believe even more rare to see an individual player.

    1. Thanks oldsalty I tried to check it out but I don’t have the patience now to read all of it, that’s alot of reading.

  14. The Euro and the CMC both have a rather large and potent TRUE LAKES CUTTER.

    Not looking good, that’s for sure.

    1. Today’s 12z Euro looks a lot more like Sunday’s 12z GFS, which both JMA and I felt had a very decent handle on the set-up during the coming week.

      1. Well, to be perfectly honest, we NEVER held out much hope
        that this system would produce snow. Now looking worse
        than ever. I suppose there are a few days for things to change, but
        sure looks Wet right now. πŸ˜₯

          1. Not a surprise in this set-up. The models will react differently as they produce various ejection times for the upper low in the Southwest. This pattern was recurring several times in the 1990s and early 2000s which is when I was developing my ability (slowly) on how to use the models. πŸ™‚

  15. I did a quick study of the current pattern and how I think it unfolds through mid January. From a snow-lover’s perspective, it’s not good. From a snow-hater’s perspective, you’ll smile much of the time.

    Though it is true there may POSSIBLY be accumulating snow on the front end of Saturday night’s system, it won’t likely be too much and the system will be passing way inside and moving very quickly. A follow up clipper type system around January 6 would be a light precipitation producer, though it may be cold enough for snow/mix. A bigger system AROUND and not necessarily on January 10-11 would be a mild system, as would likely be one after that toward January 15. This is all assuming there are no big surprises as we have seen the large scale pattern give us a couple times (the cold November and the persistence of the current pattern after it did not look like it would last as long). This is all speculation regarding anything beyond my 7-day range and not a solid forecast at this time.

    1. Thanks, TK. Very interesting and great to know. From a weather-lovers perspective….it’s all good πŸ™‚

    2. Of course and why would it possibly be any other way.

      When you’re f’d, you’re f’d. Nothing to be done about it. πŸ˜€

      It’s like the old card saying after the deal: “Read em and Weep!”

      Read the maps and weep and weep some more, that is IF you want snow.
      Otherwise, do your dance thingamagig.

      1. As both JMA and Vicki agree, this pattern is interesting for how it is keeping it from snowing, just as was the one we had a few Winters ago. That pattern was overly-fascinating to me.

        I’m glad we don’t have the same pattern Winter after Winter.

        Speaking of patterns, my son and I are going to attempt to record a year’s worth of weather for a time-lapse movie sometime in the next couple years, if we can get the set-up the way we want it. πŸ™‚

        1. But I still don’t like the pattern. I don’t have to either.

          For me, I would like Winter to be in a snowy pattern from December through March and then I would like it to
          turn instantly to Summer from April through October with November as being the ONLY Autumn month. But I’m not getting that any time soon. πŸ˜€ πŸ˜€ πŸ˜€

          1. I like the way you put it there TK, with how this really is an interesting pattern, even though it’s not one I particularly care for. Snow and big Nor’easters wouldn’t be nearly as exciting if we got pummeled with them year after year. Who knows, we could still easily lock into a snowy pattern in February. In terms of potential cold and snow, today’s 12z Euro had us struggling to reach 10F for a high in 9 days or so. Lows below zero away from the coast! It also showed a couple inches of snow with that clipper type system.

            1. Nicely said. And I agree that I would not like a pattern like this every year but fortunately, because of where we live, there is little or no chance of that. You are so right that too much of a good thing doesn’t make it quite as special.

          2. You never cease to make me smile. I loved the “I don’t have to either.” I actually haven’t been able to read past that because I was laughing so hard. Love it!!

  16. Here is something from the 18Z NAM at 84 hours.

    Surface

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014123018&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=084

    500MB

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014123018&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=084

    That northern clipper type system has Northern stream energy.

    I’m not an expert on this by any stretch, BUT it “looks” to me as if we are going to get a bit of a Fujiwhara effect, where the Northern system kind of pulls and tugs on the Southern system drawing it MORE North than otherwise would have happened.

    This is the final KISS of DEATH for snow around these parts. This pretty much
    seals the deal on a LAKES CUTTER.

  17. Why is it that the northern and southern jet streams only merge when it is mild to bring us rain, but separate themselves and supress storms during the brief intrusions of colder air?

    I will say that TK’s oringinal Winter outlook so far is spot on although I had hoped a bit more snow for December, not that I was expecting to see cross-country skiing down Boylston St. or anything like that.

    1. You’re funny Philip.
      Your post reminds me of walking down Bolyston Street near the Boston Public Libary after the blizzard of 78, watching and listening to the Hare Krishna while actually seeing folks cross country skiing down the middle of Boylston Street. πŸ˜€ A really surreal scene.

      1. There was cross-country skiing on my neighborhood street in Dorchester as well. Those were the days all right, probably never to return anytime soon…at least not this particular winter. πŸ˜€

        1. Isn’t it funny that so many do not like snow but that special memories come from major events such as 78. I still get a special feeling remembering everyone out walking and skiing in the streets. The kids now had a slight taste of it when the roads closed for a day because of the Feb 9 blizzard.

          1. My Favorite for the Blizzard of 78 was walking
            on top of and over cars in Cambridge. Amazing!

            I worked that whole week, except the Tuesday AM
            when it was still snowing. πŸ˜€ Took the T
            into Copley and then over to Cambridge.

            1. My father walked on top of a car after the Bizzard as well…but not on purpose. He always got a kick out of telling that story over and over through the years. πŸ˜€

  18. Pete says overnight snow Saturday with a widespread 2″ for Boston then change to rain for Sunday. If this verifies, we will have to take every inch of snow we can get. I certainly don’t want to break the record for “least” snow, that’s for sure.

    1. 2.9″ = 2014-2015 (to date)
    2. 9.0″ = 1936-1937
    3. 9.3″ = 2011-2012

  19. Pardon my ignorance regarding the flip-flopping of models, but seeing as the more recent runs have the most recent data, wouldn’t it stand to reason that the most recent model run should be the most accurate? But that doesn’t seem to be the case most of the time.

    1. Just my take, but generally speaking, yes of course the more recent runs
      “should” be more accurate as they contain the most recent atmospheric
      conditions. However, there are times when the initialized data (most recent
      data inputs) are done inaccurately, or incorrectly in some manner, then
      all bets are off. On rare occasions, even with new data, the conditions “may” be just right such that the model algorithms don’t handle it well, thus rendering
      the latest run NOT as accurate as the previous run.

  20. The latest 8-14 day CPC Outlook give us SOME hope for snow but up until that timeframe, the same old same old…cold with no storms.

    And I do mean SOME…

  21. More Arctic sea ice this year than several recent years is actually a contributing factor in keeping the AO/NAO from going negative. Go figure. πŸ˜‰

    1. I thought I’d read Antarctic was high but artic was sixth lowest on record. But that was in fall. Did it change drastically or is it just higher this year than last ?

      1. It’s not super high but it’s higher than the last few seasons, as of the beginning of Winter. Antarctic ice is way up. Arctic ice has generally been increasing in the 2000’s overall, but is far from records, just edging closer to average, of course still with some ups and downs.

  22. system on the 7th looks better than what is being advertised for the 4th but i still think we get some accumulating snow north and west of boston. south and east kiss it good bye, highly doubt south east areas see much of anything. areas north and west different story, honestly think Pete is on to something πŸ˜‰

  23. And again… the media.

    (Regarding 2014) “It seemed like every month there was at least one major weather event.” … Well, given that every weather event, period, is labeled “major”, I’d say there were a whole lot more than that. πŸ˜›

    Moments later, the same source, and I’m paraphrasing:
    “We’ll be on the mild side of the weekend storm. It will start as snow and change to a cold rain. And it will be cold, with highs into the mid 40s.” So the mild side will feature cold temperatures by early January standards? Since the average high for Boston is about 37 for that date, I’m not making the connection here.

    And one more quote: “It’s a very unusual weather pattern.” Oh it is? I guess I’m completely oblivious to what should be obvious. I guess we’ve never had a low pressure area go west of us with snow to rain in the Winter before…

    1. But wait there’s more!!!

      They are also talking about specific wind chill temperatures at a specific time on DAY SEVEN!

      NO WAY………

  24. It would not be wise for any TV station to talk about a system at the end of the first week of January based on one GFS run…………….

    1. Don’t worry, I’m sure the fake weather sites are already making their snow maps and putting out their unauthorized warnings.

  25. And now there are guys talking about snow amounts already… lovely.

    CAN YOU TELL I’M QUITE UNHAPPY WITH THE MEDIA AT THE MOMENT???

  26. I don’t see as much model mayhem with the weekend system as is being portrayed by some. As mentioned yesterday, the GFS/GGEM/UKMET have been reasonably consistent with this system. Especially if you don’t bite on the 6z/18z runs of the GFS. It was the ECMWF that was an outlier for a period of time. But forecasters have become so reliant on the ECMWF that they start talking and predicting in circles when it is not offering the most sensible solution. Of course it has been consistently inconsistent for nearly 18 months now. The other 3 models and now the ECMWF are somewhat similar with the primary low track, but forecasters were confused and still are because they are biting on model snow tools at 100-160 hours which is similar to forecasting “real-feel temps” based on modeled wind chills 7 days out. The fact is the primary low track and critical thickness / 850 temps tell the most likely story of this storm’s snowfall potential or lack there of and have done so for days.

      1. There is more too it than I wrote in regards to pattern recognition and the necessary understanding of the synoptic factors influencing current climate and sensible weather outcomes. Really critical thickness levels shouldn’t be that closely evaluated at this point, but they do tell a story when they are above freezing in conjunction with warm 850 temps yet models snow tools are pumping out 6 plus hours of accumulating snow at 10:1, there should be recognition of obvious model output error.

  27. TK what are they going for in metro Boston? I mean when you got general model agreement of a low tracking over the great lakes and warming critical thickness levels already invading into areas like Bedford and Lawerence by 6z Sunday, you should be talking about snowfall totals 100 plus hours out because this is the perfect recipe for big accumulations….(sarcasm for those of you who are too literal for your own good)

    1. Haha!!

      Well I did hear one TV guy (and I won’t name this person) call for the potential for 2-4 inches with spot 5 inch amounts well NW of the city.

  28. im being a little more optimistic about the saturday night into early sunday. I know its putting it out there an all but,
    1. the gfs if I am not mistaking, had this system for a while and has not really budged, The gfs par has shifted to the regular gfs and so has the canadian. It does not show snow for areas south and east of boston but gives areas north and west of boston a few inches (advisory level snows) and areas in vermont, central to northern new england a good size storm compared to what we been seeing.

    As many have stated, most of the precip looks to fall saturday night…. and with enough cold air in place that means it starts out as snow. This is also the time in which the heaviest precip looks to fall. Ligher stuff sunday. Yes its going to change to rain, but look at the positive, at least we get something, even the euro shows some snow for areas north and west of boston. So many pessimistic people this season, Im going to be optimistic and say we see the national weather service issue winter weather advisories for saturday night into sunday morning. Even if we do not get much snow we could get one hell of a sleet storm.

    1. Don’t see sleet as much of a factor with this one. Snow changing to rain with some mix of both, but don’t see sleet or ice accretion as factor with this one. I have evolved my thinking on mixed precipitation with this particular system over the last 24-36 hours.

    2. The GFS may be the most consistent up to this point but that doesn’t make it a lock on being the most accurate when we get inside 48 hours.

      Even taking the model basically as is, we are 4 days away from event onset and model errors of many miles are likely occurring at this stage.

  29. Heading to coastal Maine Thursday, returning Saturday ….. but we can come back at any time.

    What, from this far out, looks like a general part of the day for any precip to set in …..

    Neither my wife or I like to drive in any kind of snow or ice, only like to drive in it locally.

    Thanks !

      1. Thanks Vicki, we will. πŸ™‚

        Lets see, about 15 years ago now …..

        On rte 16 ? … Well, anyhow, coming out of North Conway. Snow falling, maybe only 1/2 inch at the time on the road. My wife was driving at a slow speed for the conditions ….

        Didnt matter, must have hit ice and we spun into the other lane, which likewise had a jeep coming and …….

        Bash ! Thankfully we had spun around so the back side took the hit. It mangled in like an accordian. On impact, my glasses flew out the jeep and onto the road.

        Ever since then, driving outside of the very local area in snow or ice has been a no-go. πŸ™‚

            1. As I recall you and I spent some parallel time in that area, Keith. I drove those roads more times than I can count in bad weather.

              1. My friends and I used to rent chalets in the Eidelweiss complex in Madison…did some cross country skiing..some drinking..some skiing..more drinking…you get the picture. Used to hang out at the Tavern in the Town, The Red Jacket, The Red Parka, Up Country Saloon,etc, etc…and then the Rickshaw (by the old airport Inn) for late night Chinese food.

                1. We also rented in edelweiss. The place with the huge boulder. And we stayed at the red jacket many times. I think we figured you and I probably crossed paths in some of the lounges. πŸ™‚

          1. Thats what my wife says Vicki (guardian angel) πŸ™‚

            I’m thinking a lot of us probably have a snow/ice skidding/accident story …….

            Well, I’ve peaked around and it looks like any precip begins Sat evening or even overnight, so, that would be good and I hope the timing doesnt speed up ! πŸ™‚

            1. When young and stupid, I never minded driving in ice and snow…..of course I also didn’t hesitate to race top end down rt 2 at over 100. Thank God for those angels.

  30. Was up in Lowell today ……

    A parking lot or 2 had a crusty, small snow pile in a corner. My daughters got a kick out of that when I pointed that out.

    The Merrimack River is pretty high for late December. Pawtucket Falls was going lretty good and the rapids that go by UMass Lowell looked like class 2 or 3 rapids.

    It was very cold and I noticed numerous ponds, lakes, etc along our ride that were starting to show the thinnest ice starting to form in protected corners from the wind.

      1. Low sun angle. I had a small patch of snow that originated from a shoveled pile from the snow/sleet in November and it held on a very long time.

  31. And of course, the computer projected snowfall amounts maps make their ridiculous appearance on TV weathercasts…………….. These people just don’t get it, do they. Now there are thousands of people that know that Boston is only going to get 0.6 inch of snow Saturday night, well because that’s what the weatherman said. I mean it was right there on the map!

    1. That .6 inches sounds like it comes from a Harvey Map. At least that’s were
      I see the maps with the tenths of an inch accumulation.

      Why can’t the put down an inch. No, it has to be 0.6 inch. HILARIOUS!
      Like the model would ever be that accurate. πŸ˜€

  32. Yawn……

    Well one thing I can say, this morning is the coldest morning of the season for
    my location. 18.3 at the moment. Let me check the record books. πŸ˜€

    GFS is still painting 4 or 5 inches of front end snow with this next event.
    I don’t see it at all. Maybe an inch or 2 at best. Warm air at both the surface
    and aloft just flood the area. Don’t even see the coastal on the latest runs.
    ALL of the models have a CUTTER and that spells RAIN no matter how you slice and dice it. (Perhaps there will be a surprise, but I Highly doubt that!) πŸ˜₯

    Looking ahead, I see MORE CUTTERS. MISERABLE pattern IF one likes snow.
    If Not, then by all means jump for joy. You’ve earned it.

  33. re: Driving in the Snow

    I completely understand some bloggers reluctance to drive in the snow.

    I, myself, rather enjoy it. I know, I’m a nut job, but none-the-less I do like it for
    the most part. Given that, I do admit that it can get pretty treacherous when dealing
    with moronic idiotic other drivers. It’s the other driver that causes me the most worry.

    I’ve driven from Stow VT to Waterville Valley NH in a blinding snow storm.
    Driven from Foxwoods in CT to Boston in raging snow storms. No Problem.

    On the other hand, I have had unbelievable commutes in total misery. Never fearing for my life, but rather extremely frustrated with lack of movement on the roads.

    1. It never did bother me. I’ve driven not many years ago from Stowe Vt to home in ice…it took over 8 hours. And more times than I can count to and from North Conway in blinding storms. It is more the other driver that I worry about. And as I get older my own reflexes. My dad taught me to drive in snow before I learned to drive on pavement. I think many in my day were also excellent snow drivers…….now, not so much. And I won’t mention the four wheel drive mentality…..oops, perhaps I did πŸ™‚

      1. Indeed, the Invincible ones cruising through the snow at
        70MPH because they have “4-wheel drive”. πŸ˜† πŸ˜†

      1. Thank you Tom and Vicki.

        I didn’t take the photo. I just like to pass on items that
        I find interesting in the “hope” that others here also find
        it interesting. πŸ˜€

  34. Here’s what I want to see here! The forecast for the Arizona Snow Bowl, located 10 Miles NNW of Flagstaff Arizona. Base elevation β€” 9,200 feet
    Summit elevation β€” 11,500 feet

    Today Snow. High near 15. Wind chill values as low as -5. South southeast wind 8 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 10 to 14 inches possible.

    Tonight Snow. Low around 6. Wind chill values as low as -7. South wind 8 to 13 mph becoming west after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

    New Year’s Day Snow showers. High near 13. Wind chill values as low as -7. North wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

  35. From Taunton NWS office re next event:

    WILL LIKELY SEE GOOD COLD
    AIR DAMMING SETTING UP. AT THIS POINT…DO EXPECT PRECIP TO START
    OFF AS MAINLY SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. AFTER MIDNIGHT…THOUGH…
    THE BIG QUESTION COMES INTO PLAY…HOW QUICKLY WILL THE MIXING
    PUSH NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HEAVIEST PRECIP
    LOOKS TO OCCUR DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS WELL…SO THIS COULD ALSO
    COMPLICATE THE MIXED PRECIP WITH COLDER AIR WORKING DOWN WITH THE HEAVIER PRECIP. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A DECENT AMOUNT OF SNOW BEFORE THE MIX AND EVENTUAL CHANGE TO RAIN AS THE MILDER AIR FINALLY WORKS IN DURING SUNDAY MORNING.

    Hey guys, With the history of this season, GO with a rapid change to RAIN.
    We can hope, but I think it is FUTILE.

        1. Rarely will WAA produce more than an inch or two. I can remember some that have put down 6″ but again, pretty rare and you’d go home with empty pockets if it were a casino game. How about that GFS for the 15th O.S. We are simply locked in an unfavorable snow pattern.

            1. The mean storm track is carved in to the west. And that’s the way it’s gonna stay for a while, maybe the winter even. I’m concerned now that even if we get some cold to lock in from the North, all we’ll be facing is WAA event’s with lots of mixing and freezing rain. I could totally see how this sets up.

  36. Good morning!! It is amazing that we’ve gotten no meaningful snow yet or just 1.2 inches so far here and it’s Jan, I remember back in 99 I believe no snow fell till jan 7th, right now I don’t think we see any meaningful snow till mid Jan.

    Sunrise 7:11:32 sunset 4:23:15 good day!!

    1. Not that amazing. There are a good amount of Winters in the books that started out like this. πŸ™‚

    2. Not that far back I don’t think. That warm winter a couple of years ago we did not get snow till MLK night and the the storm fizzled.

  37. One thing I notice about this weekend event ……

    It doesnt seem to be a strong low. I think the EURO and GFS have this thing 1,000 mb or higher until it gets past New England.

    IF that holds true, then perhaps for inland locations, there is a decent chance at frozen precip for a while in this system. Not all snow ….. But, given the preceeding cold, I’d think its going to be dificult to scour out the low level cold in the CT Valley and all the other traditional inland locations that struggle to warm up when there’s not a ton of surface wind.

    Cape Cod, SE Mass, and within 20 or so miles of the coastline up into northeast Mass …. I cant see much overall frozen precip with the primary system this far west.

    1. Haha …. I’m still trying to figure that one out too Vicki.

      I think sometime btwn “evening” and midnight ?? πŸ™‚

      Of course, its still 72+ hrs out, so timing could change.

  38. 15.1 here …… Heat is running regularly now for first time this season

    I notice that JR continues to say seasonal, chris lambert says average. I rarely see Pete so can’t speak to that. I figure they were reading here and are making a point to not say normal……… πŸ˜‰

    1. Eric said “AVERAGE” several times last night. I even commented to my
      wife that he said average and not normal. Then I told my wife that today’s temperatures were below average but perfectly normal. πŸ˜€

      Love it.

    2. It actually felt cold in my house this morning too Vicki. Pretty hefty freeze on the grass (that is still green)

  39. Jim Cantore retweeted
    Jillian Danielson ‏@missjillian1 18m18 minutes ago
    @JimCantore @reedtimmerTVN snow starting to fall in lake havasu, az!! Very rare for us

      1. They went. They are there now.
        Spoke to them last night. It was near 50 yesterday. No precip.
        Spotty light snow/snow showers there now. Most action
        expected East of Las Vegas. Don’t anticipate any problems
        for them. Just a chilly day today.

        Many thanks for asking.

  40. Ha ha ha

    NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 27m27 minutes ago
    Accumulating snow expected Sat night for a good portion of the region, esp. North of MA Pike. Changes to rain Sunday. Please Retweet.

    1. and …. of course …. with the primary where it would be and the weak secondary where it would be ……

      It screams of a quick moving dry slot in from the southwest, probably a 6 hr precip event, that ends up being 1/2 the precip amount that is being modeled.

  41. Happy last day of 2014 everyone. It has been another great year blogging with all of you. I look forward to more of the same in 2015. If anyone saved our bold weather predictions we made on the 1st of January this year I would be curious to see if any of our predictions happened.

  42. NWS out of Upton, NY a little bullish for next event
    THIS SCENARIO SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SNOW/WINTRY MIX TRANSITIONING
    TO FREEZING RAIN/RAIN (INTERIOR) AND RAIN(COAST)SAT NIGHT…BEFORE
    PRECIP TAPERS OFF SUNDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF HEAVY PRECIP POSSIBLE
    SAT NIGHT WITH STRONG WAA AND GULF CONNECTION BRINGING IN PWATS OF
    2 TO 3 STDS ABOVE NORMAL. SOME OF WHICH COULD BE HEAVY SNOW ACROSS
    INTERIOR. WAA WOULD CHANGE ANY PRECIP TO LIQUID OVERNIGHT
    SAT…BUT DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF COASTAL LOW…SURFACE COLD AIR
    MAY BE TOUGH TO SCOUR OUT OF INTERIOR NW VALLEYS RESULTING IN SOME
    ICING ISSUES.

    1. Snow first, then rain.

      Start window: 3PM to midnight Saturday.
      End window: 6 AM to 3PM Sunday.

      Will narrow it down.

  43. DO I see something DIFFERENT happening with the 12Z GFS run?
    OR am I looking for something that isn’t there???????????????????

  44. There won’t be any appreciable snow with this weekend storm. With that low center where it is? Forget about it. Start cheering on the little clipper system that should follow a few days behind it. That could be able to produce some snow.

      1. If I recall, we had a nice clipper that overachieved last winter. There were quite a few parents with daggers for eyes at pickup that day…

        1. We shall see. There is always a chance with a Clipper, BUT it takes a perfect set up.

          MOST clippers pass Farther NORTH than expected, yielding far less qpf OR worse, RAIN.

          I SMELL A RAT with this upcoming one.

          Translation: With the pattern we are stuck in, it will track N&W of here sucking in the WARM air.

        2. If the clipper system COULD slow down and be able to gain strength you could get a moderate snowfall.
          If it moves right along then you could still get snowfall although there would be light amounts (3 inches or less)

  45. Another glorious winter day. Oh, how I wish the entire winter was like this. Alas, we’ve been in a series of patterns that have not been conducive to snow. This said, at least we won’t have rain and fog days on end like we did for weeks in December.

    Agree with TK, the lack of snow thus far is NOT unusual. Has happened many times before and will occur many times in the future. However, it’s frustrating for snow-lovers. I don’t see any change in snow fortunes for the coast. Lows are not tracking well at all for SNE snow. Nor is the cold sustained. I see cold spurts in our future, like the one we’re having. None will be long-lived. Cutters will continue to give us rain rather than snow. I see a drier month ahead than what we experience in December, but still average precipitation throughout January, mostly in the form of rain. Hard to say what February will bring. My guess is more rain than snow, and above average precipitation. I think sustained cold does impact us by the end of February (not extremely cold, but below average cold), along with a negative AO and we enter a rather dismal pattern of windy cold `spring’ days, cold rain, some snow, and lots of cut-off lows in March, April, and May.

    1. This so-called clipper system, is diving to the point it will almost be
      a COLORADO low. And those are generally NOT favorable for SNOW on
      the coast of SNE.

      1. We want a Clipper to dive South of the Great Lakes and emerge
        on the Coast down around NJ or Del. OR head towards
        NY state with a Coastal redevelopment South of LI NY.

        Ain’t gonna happen.

    2. I absolutely agree that lack of snow here is not unusual. IMHO and experience, it is quite unusual compared pre-70ish to our north in ski country.

  46. Low comes out of the four corners region or Colorado usually goes west of us. Then you hope there COULD be some sort of secondary development on the coast with an energy transfer from the primary low.

  47. Well according to the 12Z GFS, we have a NY state clipper:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014123112&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=153

    TOO far NORTH with redevelopment in the Gulf of Maine. NFG for SNE.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014123112&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=159

    And here’s your snow from it.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014123112&time=24&var=ASNOWI&hour=165

    AND that is being GENEROUS for sure. πŸ˜€

  48. I only saw once time in my life where a clipper tracked through northern new england and gave snowfall here in SNE. It was a couple years ago and it was light snowfall. Ususally when they track north of us milder air is brought in and its a rain event.

      1. I have a friend that lives in Tucson and he’s says people r staying in there warm homes and New Years festivities are going to feature much smaller crowds than normal

        1. We have a cousin in Phoenix and two in Tuscon. One of the cousins lives over Puget Sound and bought a winter house last year to get away from wet/cold/mist winter there. Will have to give he a call as I know she loves snow.

          1. Vicki that whole area of country r transplants from the northern part of country with many ex new Englanders living tbere, I’m not making a shot at here, just stating reality πŸ™‚ the majority of them r transplants from colder climates that were looking for a climate that’s mild, with minimal snow πŸ™‚

  49. I am hoping meteorologist Gil Simmons is right when he said it gets active mid January and he thinks there could be some sizeable storms in February.

    1. I said it earlier in the week we always have a watcher MLK weekend always. Tk said not this year but it’s two early to discard that possibility. It just always seems that way but we shall see that’s a ways off.

      1. Well I didn’t really say “not this year”. I said it doesn’t happen every year. It may not happen this year based on how I think the pattern shapes up through mid month.

        We do however have a better shot at more widespread, though light, snow from a clipper system around Tuesday next week than we may from the front end of the weekend event. The set-up may be just anomalous enough that even if the low tracks north of here we may end up with a decent plume of moisture (for a clipper) south of the low, and it should be cold enough. Still, things have to happen just right, so we’ll watch it.

          1. There have been many right around that time, but it is a climate-favored time for snow, right about at the coldest time of year and when the mean would favor a jet stream somewhere nearby.

            1. You know, I was just thinking…
              Winter is a climate-favored time for snow. πŸ˜† πŸ˜†

              Just being Silly. πŸ˜€

  50. Look what the 12Z CMC does with that clipper we discussed!!! It takes it from
    1006 MB just off the MA coast to 975mb over Nova Scotia is just 12 hours!!!
    I think that would classify as “bombogenesis”. No?

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=180&fixhh=1&hh=168

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=168&fixhh=1&hh=180

      1. Well that would be a Maritime Polar Air Mass then.

        I’d prefer to think it was coming from Siberia. πŸ˜€

      2. Sighhh. That makes me sad. Santa came straight from the North Pole a week ago tonight and I can hardly believe it has been a week πŸ™

  51. Some thoughts …..

    1) 2014 “big” weather event locally : Revere, MA tornado …….. I think I still recall OS seeing and posting the rotation on the cell some 30-45 minutes before the tornado happened.

    2) Would the 2014 version of the EURO have given as much lead team with similar accuracy if the “Sandy” event of a couple of years ago had occurred now ?

    3) I’m trying to put together some 2015 weather predictions πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚ for pure comic relief, of course !

    3) I’m

    1. I’m too.

      For the record, I saw rotation on the same cell that produced the Revere tornado about the time frame you indicated as it was out in the burbs.
      It lost rotation, but then rapidly occurred just as it passed over the City.
      I did post the rotation Before the NWS issued the warning.

      Here it is actually.

      http://i.imgur.com/siExpON.png

      I have no predictions other than there WILL BE WEATHER, whether we like it or not.

      Ok I’ll give one. Summer 2015 will be BRUTALLY HOT with 30+ days of
      90+ Degrees for highs. Throw in some damaging T-storms and a possible tornado or 2.

    1. Hit REFRESH if image doesn’t display.
      That is some pretty fierce snow coming down there.
      And to think, it is less than a 2 hours drive from Phoenix.

  52. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
    345 PM EST WED DEC 31 2014

    Still referencing 0Z Model suites. GIVE ME A BREAK!_)@*#&*!()&@#$*&!*(^@$^!&*(@#$^!&*^@#&^!&*@#^!*&@#^&*!^@#&*^!&*@^#&!^@&#^!*@#^!&*@#^!*&@#^

      1. I find that so disgustingly IRRITATING_!@)#*()&!)(@#&*()!@&#*(!&*(@#&*!@&#*(!@*&#*(!&@#*(&!*(@#&*(!&@#*(&!*(@#&(!*&@#*&!*(@&#*(!&@#*&!*(&@#*(&!@#*&*

        3:45 PM and they can’t reference the 12Z runs?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

      2. Of course, perhaps the behind the scenes take after looking at the 12z runs is …….

        “oh shit” …. Did we really tweet out this morning something about snow potential in a good part of the area, north of the Mass Pike ?

        And so, its denial mode. πŸ™‚ our keep looking at the 0z runs. πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚

  53. Not for nothing, but the 18Z NAM brings surface temperature ABOVE freezing BEFORE
    precip from the next event even commences and then brings 850MB temps above
    freezing very shortly after it starts. I just don’t see much snow at all near Boston.
    Some flakes and then perhaps a bit of sleet and right over to RAIN.

    All this talk about SNOW at the beginning, pleeeeeze.

  54. 18Z GFS has backed WAY off from front end snow anywhere near the coast.
    Still has 4 or 5 inches inland 30 or 40 miles. πŸ˜€

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