Wednesday Forecast Update

74 Comments

7:32AM

DAYS 1-5…
A weak trough aloft, high pressure at the surface, and a dry westerly flow means great Summer weather today and Thursday with bright sun, some developing fair-weather clouds, and warm/dry air days with comfortable nights. By Friday, a spoke of energy will rotate around a slightly deepened trough and bring more cloudiness and a risk of a few showers along with slightly cooler air. When the weekend arrives, a narrow high pressure area will build down from the north and bring fair weather with a slight increase in humidity Saturday and more-so Sunday as a cold front starts to approach from the west. At this time, thinking that the approaching front will be slow enough to allow most of Sunday to be free of any rain threat.
TODAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 80-85 except 70s Nantucket. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to clear. Lows 60-65 except some upper 50s interior valleys. Wind light W.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-85 except 70s Nantucket. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered afternoon showers. Lows 58-65. Highs 75-82.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 56-63. Highs 77-84.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Showers at night? Lows 60-68. Highs 78-85.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 27-31)…
Cold front brings showers/thunderstorms for at least part of July 27. Next system may bring a few showers/storms late July 28 into July 29 with fair weather returning for the July 30-31 period. Temperatures near to above normal during the final days of the month.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 1-5)…
August starts out with near to above normal temperatures near near to below normal rainfall during its first several days.

74 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast Update”

  1. Good morning and thank you. I have a feeling that today will be one of those
    10 kind of day.

  3. Thanks, TK.

    The last few days knocked the stuffing out of me. Haven’t felt this tired in a long time. A combination of very long work days and un-breathable, muggy, air. I was so hoping that TK would be wrong with his long-range forecast. But, never bet against a top cat. The long-range now looks warm and tropical. I’ve learned my lesson once again. No more wishful thinking forecasts from me. I’ll just have to stick my head in my freezer once in a while (I literally do this on days like yesterday).

    When I was a kid I hated back-to-school ads in July. They reminded me of the one thing I couldn’t stand: School. Now, those early back-to-school ads actually put me in a better mood. They let me know how close we are to fall.

    1. Joshua,

      You are funny and we share common trait. I couldn’t stand school either.
      I mean I detested it with a passion. Seriously, I don’t know how I made it
      through high school and then College as well. It’s a miracle. I stared at the clock constantly. Time just could NOT pass fast enough. In between staring at the clock, I’d be looking out the window and constantly day dreaming about
      what I’d do after school. I HATED school. HATED, HATED, HATED it!!!!

      HHH weather is a cake walk compared to attending school, even though I do NOT like HHH weather.

      Now today? AHHHHHHHHHHHH how do you spell relief?
      Wednesday, that’s how. 😀

      1. Looks as if the three of us share a common trait. I thought school was a social experience. Somehow I managed to get through with mostly Bs but I never applied myself. I couldn’t wait to get out and to work and I love work.

        It is funny how people are wired differently. Some are dragged down with cold weather and some with hot. I have no energy when it is HHH. It doesn’t stop me from liking it but it does force me to plan ahead because I know I will not get much done outside of anything that has AC. On the other hand, I have endless energy when it is cold.

    1. When did we have a Danny before? In 1990s? early 2000s? If I am not mistaken it hung around the south coast and dropped a lot of rain and wind.

  11. Perfect summer day today. I disliked school bc of the work but loved it for the social and sports part. I never applied myself either and have a BS which was a miracle 🙂

  12. “Danny”- 2009 was the last one, a pathetic excuse for a tropical cyclone, originally forecast to become a hurricane and pass over or just east of Cape Cod. Instead dissipated to our south but still provided a soaking day of rain, I was on the Cape at the time. I met Jim Cantore then 🙂

    We “may” see something try to form off the Southeast coast in the next 5-9 days, but it would likely be weak and not move towards us. Typical of El Nino years like this and 2009.

    1. If Danny was a hurricane in 1997, how can the name be used in 2009 and again in 2015? It is the 1997 one I remember as my daughter was then riding a pony named Danny …. as you can see my association of things is a bit odd.

        1. It gets a little tricky. The WMO “retires” names of storms that caused significant damage/fatalities, and replaces them with new names. Otherwise, storm names rotate on a 6 year cycle, so the same names get used in, for example, 1997, 2003, 2009, 2015, etc. With the exception of retired storm names of course; for instance Isabel was retired from the list in 2003 and replaced by Ida. The decision to retire a storm name is subjective. I believe the country/countries impacted have to submit a request to the WMO. Danny 1997 was a landfalling category 1 hurricane, but didn’t do enough damage to get retired, so it will appear this year.

          1. Thanks, WW. I am not surprised it is subjective. I thought the damage amount was fairly significant but in comparison perhaps not.

  13. The last hurricane that I remember was hurricane Gloria 30 yrs ago 🙂 I guess it’s bound to happen, sorta like thunderstorms. 🙂

    Put your money on no hurricane, trust me 🙂

    On a side note I would love a hurricane to come right over us, plus once they come up here they r all disorganized, everything has to be just right

    2. What About Bob? Short memory.
      Bob was not disorganized. It wreaked havoc on the Cape, Buzzards Bay
      and Narragansett Bay.

      And if you want a whopper, how about the great New England Hurricane
      of 1938. I don’t think that one was disorganized either.

      To be sure, they don’t happen often, but then can and sooner or later
      we’ll be nailed by one.

      1. I took some video of Bob. Shore road in Falmouth was partially destroyed. Many homes/cottages were obliterated. Gigantic
        trees were down all over.

        It was pure devastation!

        1. The coast was really damaged from Bob. Here, it was not as bad as Gloria was but I am smart enough to know that because it was not bad in one area, doesn’t mean it was not devastating in other, nearby areas.

        1. Thank you. It was bad.

          In Boston, it was a WIMPORAMA. Peak wind
          at Logan was 64 mph. At my house, inland about 5 or 6 miles, I’d say 50 mph tops. I kept waiting for the wind, but
          it didn’t come. The center cut across SE MA, between the canal and Boston.

    2. So exciting!!! I did for several in the 50s and then the TS’s in the past years although we tended to head home and then return since we had water on both sides. It was the 50s storms where we remained at Humarock that started my interest in weather.

      John, do you know anything about the Egypt Beach area of Scituate? It seems like a humarock type feel but without the risk of flooding. Or other areas of that type in Scituate or Marshfield? I’m going to ask others on FB but since you are not on there hope folks do not mind my asking here.

      1. No not really Vicki .tell your daughter the fairview is leaving marshfield and coming to pembroke October 1st

  15. The 1938 hurricane was massive. Of course, I wasn’t around then. But, I remember an evening in the 1970s during which my parents hosted a couple from in or near Minot, Massachusetts. They talked about the 1938 hurricane and how it impacted them.

    1. I think there is a sign on Rt. 2 In Western MA somewhere along the Deerfield river where it indicate the high flood point of the river during or shortly after
      the Hurricane of 1938. It is way up over the top of rt. 2. I haven’t been that
      way in 40+ years, so my memory may be incorrect, but I remember it as
      being something like 17 feet above the normal height of the river or above flood stage or something like that. You’d have to be there, but it is impressive!
      That storm in addition to all it’s fury, dumped craploads of rain.

      I found this.

      River Location Flow cfs/sq mile Stage

      Deerfield Charlemont 56,300 cfs 156 csm 20.2 ft *

      Link: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/nerfc/historical/sept1938.htm

  16. I guess I’ll rephrase the sentence, the last land falling hurricane to effect the wrentham area was Gloria, bob was nothing here 🙂 it’s been quite sometime, really since I was a kid. Os that is hilarious, 1938 was the last major one lol almost 80 yrs ago. Sometimes I feel like if something happens once in a lifetime, all of a sudden it can happen all the time, and forget the so many years nothing happens.

      1. Hmmm Carol, Edna, Hazel, Donna are the ones I was around
        for between the one in 1938 and Gloria and Bob.

        I was living in Norwood at the time of Carol. That thing
        blew the steeple of St. Catherin’s Church right to the ground

      2. Carol in 1953 was a major hurricane, for those of us who lived in Hull. Cabin cruisers on the front lawn 10 feet above high tide level, and entire fleets of small racing boats lost or destroyed.
        I would be curious to see the numbers for Carol. I remember it not very well, as I was only a month old! But my whole family was in the house on Hingham Bay and the stories are mind-blowing
        Also the No Name storm and Bob were a sleepers in the early 90s.
        Depending on where you were at the time, these storms were life threatening.

        1. I believe that is the one where we were stuck at Humarock. It was incredible. And I do enjoy Hull.

  17. Just about any tropicals this season form somewhere other than the Cape Verde formation zone. That is proving true 3, maybe 4, storms into the season.

      2. Tk, in that Post, TWC indicated that IF it formed it could move
        North or NorthEast. Do you see that happening?

        Looking at the off shore buoy temperatures, they are up there
        pretty decently. Current Boston Buoy is 71.3 Stellwagen is 67+
        Buoys South of Long Island are all in the 70s, albeit lower
        to at best middle 70s. But “just” South of there is the magic
        80 degree mark.

        In other words, we are now late enough into the Summer Season that a Hurricane (not saying this would become one. just a what if) could get up here and pack a punch. As per usual
        it would lose some, but still could be pretty potent up here.

        It’s NOT May or June anymore, it’s practically August.

        So this is something to REALLY watch.

        1. So far, models are not jumping all over this and whatever develops is weak and passes more to the East.
          But it’s a ways off. We shall see.

  20. A batch of instability showers is going to cross southeastern NH and northeastern MA through about 5PM. May be brief downpours in some of these. They won’t be around too long.

    I didn’t think we have enough instability today to kick them off but apparently we do.

    1. I was watching those puffies and wondering if showers would pop.
      I guess not around here, but not all that far from here. 😀

  21. Not for nothing, but the 18Z NAM practically eliminates all and any precipitation
    for Friday. Interesting.

  22. OS, thanks for sharing the flooding information from the 1938 hurricane.

    Coastal, thanks for sharing the information on Hudson Bay. In some ways it’s reassuring to not be losing Arctic ice. By the way, today was the one-day summer in Kimmirut, by far the nicest day this month, with gloomier weather ahead.

    http://www.camcentral.com/camviewer.php?script=listings&task=list&item=location&show=Canada&page=5&id=17446

    Long-range forecast up there looks to return to cooler than normal. Notice there is still ice in the waterway, which is really unusual. Ice tends to break up in May and be gone by early June.

    1. It’s nasty in Kimmirut.

      I looked up it. Wow! What a place to live!

      Their record high temperature for July is 102 Degrees F.
      How could that happen with all of that cold water around?
      The inhabitants of that region must have melted like popsicles
      on that day.

      Average High Temperature for July is 55.

      Insanity.

  25. OS – Were you alive during the “Great Atlantic Hurricane” 9/14-15/ 1944?

    The most damage occured in areas like New Bedford and Cape Cod while most areas not as much including Boston. There is probably not much info due to the 1938 Hurricane overshadowing it. This was probably the last hurricane or one of the last with no name.

  26. Charlie, I live in Boston. But, I don’t limit myself to being merely interested in what goes on in New England or the U.S. Interesting weather (and other things, too) occurs everywhere, and I’ll report it if it relates to a discussion on WHW. For example, the discussions we’ve had on global warming, unusual climactic events across the globe, and yes even mundane things like thunder storms. As you recall many of us were talking about the lack of thunder storms in this area.

  27. I think whatever forms out there will stay to the SE.

    SSK, Hampton looks great over the weekend. Monday may be unsettled.

Comments are closed.