Thursday Forecast

108 Comments

7:33AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 18-22)…
A cold front pushes through the early first thing today. A few snow showers may develop over east coastal MA as winds turn north and transport colder air into the region and it interacts with the warmer ocean water. High pressure building across the Great Lakes will slide eastward and into the New England region later Thursday into Friday with fair and chilly weather. A broad low pressure area moving eastward across southeastern Canada, will return cloudiness to the region later Friday with a risk of some light snow/mix later Friday night and a few rain/snow showers Saturday. This system exits on Sunday with fair, breezy, and cool weather expected, but quick on its heals another small system approaches, this one from the southwest, and brings a risk of a period of snow/mix later Sunday night into Monday.
TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers possible east coastal MA mainly midday on.
Highs in the 30s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 20s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny, then clouds increase late. Chance of light snow/mix at night. Highs in the 30s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH diminishing and becoming variable.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few rain/snow showers. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow/mix late night. Lows in the 20s. Highs upper 30s to lower 40s.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of mix/snow morning. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 23-27)…
Another system likely to impact the region later February 23 to early February 25 with any or all of rain/mix/snow – too early to determine. Fair and colder later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 28-MARCH 3)…
Storm threat in the February 28-29 period with rain/mix/snow possible. Fair and cool by March 1-3.

108 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  2. Thru Feb 17th, with all the wild temp swings in February, the overall monthly temp at Logan is exactly at the average. There is no departure from normal, not even by a few tenths of a degree.

  4. Good morning again and thank you TK for the update.

    Wild swings continue with the models. We shall see what unfolds. No matter what, we get what we get. 😀

  5. Thanks TK.

    The TV mets are leaning toward the “warmer” solution for the 24th…inside runner. So what else is new?

    1. Which ones? ALL?

      Why? Because for one run, the Euro came inside?
      This one is NOT yet resolved.

      If we see the Euro inside for several runs, then I would be inclined to lean
      towards the warmer solution. It’s one STINKEN run that went inside.

      I cannot believe that both Eric and Harvey would have said that, not yet anyway.

      1. 😀

        But you are not on the air. Can you let us know which way
        you are leaning?

        BTW. it’s OK to say your’e not leaning one way or the other as
        all solutions are on the table.

        Many thanks

  7. Meant to post this earlier. When I came out of my house at about 7:50 this morning
    with my LIGHT weight jacket on, I took a deep breath and thought: Hmmm it smells like SPRING this morning. Then I listened to a crap load of birds chirping. Btw, many different species of birds, not just one. I thought that If I looked in the yard, I would see flowers blooming and green grass growing. That was not the case, but sure had the
    feel of Spring in the air this morning.

  8. Well, this is interesting…..

    Matt Noyes: Broadcast Meteorologist
    22 mins ·
    In Merrimack, NH, the 24th Annual Winter Carnival has been cancelled due to an inadequate winter…one year after the Easter egg hunt was postponed due to too much winter. http://mnoy.es/1QnX2My

  9. Perfect 10 today. Bright and sunny, chilly but not too cold. I’m hoping next winter will bring us lots of days like today, more consistency rather than volatility.

    1. I agree with you both JpDave and Joshua. Kind of a spring feeling and having all the sun is nice.

      We’ve added close to 12 degrees of solar elevation since the solstice and for me, it makes a huge difference.

      I mind the cold less when the sun is out this time of year. Nice positive difference. I saw a few rays of sun after 5pm yesterday 🙂

  10. The 12z NAM appears to be giving hints that the small Sunday night/Monday morning system is going south of us.

    It really speaks to how early it is to have an idea of the midweek system because only a couple days ago, it looked like this Sunday night system was going to travel along the U.S./Canadian border.

    1. Indeed. The initialization data is different each run.
      How much does that change every 6 hours. Does this go to show how the lack
      of sampling over the Pacific and Eastern Pacific really affects the results
      of these model runs????

      Incredible.

    2. tom that system is still going to travel across the us canadian boarder friday night/saturday morning. What the nam is showing is another system, a clipper that dips down from the northwest/great lakes

      1. Agreed …… The first system which will bring us a mild Saturday is tracking along the border.

        But, I think the follow up system has shifted well south.

        Of course, I was watching the weather models from poolside earlier this week and so, I’m probably not too accurate on what I am recalling. 🙂 🙂 🙂

            1. Thanks. Looking forward to getting me back to New England tonight. Call me crazy, but 72 degrees and sunny everyday doesn’t do it for me.

    1. So he thinks the storm will hug the coast with snow to ice to rain in Boston with
      all snow more inland. Still a ways to go here.

  13. This back and forth and the unknown is killing me/giving me anxiety. I have a flight out of Boston at 11a on Wednesday, of all days. ah, the thrill of winter.

    1. So sorry to hear that. Must be rough. You will have to stay tuned. It is rather up in the air and quite complicated. I am sure TK can advise you best.

      12Z GFS is just about there. We will at least know what that run had to say soon.

  14. 12Z GFS is not amplifying upper flow. Sure looks like it is destined to be off shore.
    Will watch for changes. 😀

  15. I maybe wrong here but the 6z run of the GFS had this as a miss.
    This is not going to be an easy forecast and as Gil Simmons said this morning a track difference of 50 miles is going to make a difference here.

    1. You are correct. 6Z GFS was a total miss.

      As depicted this system is nothing but nuisance. NO heavy duty snow anywhere
      around.

  16. Agree nuisance snow but first GFS run I have seen in a while that shows some accumulating snow for Boston.

  18. This tweet pretty much says it all mid week next week from Meteorologist Gil Simmons
    The storm track for next Wednesday will go back and forth. Pencil stormy weather in your calendar for midweek next week!

  25. Hmmm Tk onto something?

    12Z Euro wants to deliver a solid 2-4 inches Sunday night/Monday.
    Once again as a reminder, please click on any of these links once opened to
    enlarge the image.

    http://imgur.com/1fwf4jr

    Surface & Precipitation

    http://imgur.com/Ta2wV28

    totasl qpf for Boston about .45 inches

    And finally, something cool from the Service I have. A chart of daily conditions.
    Notice: Sunday Night/Mondy 2.2 inches forecast for Boston

    http://imgur.com/UN5gUdS

  26. FWIW, the Euro has an elongated system off the coast very much like the GFS.
    That is scary!!!

    Maps in a few.

  29. From Eric Fisher

    Eric Fisher
    Page Liked · 10 mins · Edited ·

    Really love MODIS imagery for an ‘eye in the sky’ that helps us diagnose what’s going on across the region. Crystal clear today. Amazing to see most of Sebago Lake, Winnipesaukee, Champlain, the Quabbin, and the Finger Lakes ice free. Barely any on Ontario too. However, can see the deep snow pack from Tuesday’s storm in western New York/Pennsylvania.

    https://scontent-lga3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpl1/v/t1.0-0/q84/s480x480/12742828_1011499165555270_503828690106583998_n.jpg?oh=942bb61d3c600af92e2c3837501e9da0&oe=57704BC4

        1. Not always, but often. 😀

          I do a lot of compiling and/or running of programs, so
          They sometimes take a few minutes, so I can bop in here.

          1. Quietly waiting for the 18Z GFS. 18Z NAM doesn’t say much except to hint that it wants to keep
            Sunday/Monday system suppressed to the South.

            We shall see. I’d believe the Euro.

  31. I was at a meeting. Home now and lots to catch up on here, as in house-related stuff. 🙂 But I’ll be checking in and review the data etc. 🙂

  32. This blog will light up like a Christmas tree soon especially with two threats of wintry precipitation Sunday night into Monday then Wednesday into Thursday.

          1. Well from a climate standpoint, of course. I do think the pattern flips by mid March to limit any very late season threats.

  35. NWS hedging towards snow to rain on the coast and snow to ice inland for Weds. Could be “significant QPF”.

    1. I haven’t seen anything significant recently. Some earlier runs were loaded, but
      more recent runs are rather skimpy. So what are they seeing? Inquiring minds would like to know. 😀

          1. Philip, i honestly think they should try to do that with winter storms. Kind of what I do with some of my “early maps” when I have enough confidence in the system

    3. Great link. I love the way he presents. It is relaxed and clear and as if he is sitting in the room with you. Liked the windshield wiper analogy :). Thank you for the link

  39. Some of you have seen this classic collection of half-profanity-infused bloopers. So the warning is for the profanity even though the actual words are truncated in the edit process (on purpose). This set of bloopers stars AccuWeather mets Bernie Rayno and Jim Kosek (the one with the glasses).

    It gets a repost tonight: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wvdWSsSqgLc

    NOTE: None of these actual made it to the web page telecast. They were collected by someone there and edited and ended up on YouTube at some point.

    2. Thanks for sharing TK! Too Funny!
      A couple of weekends ago during a Periscope video, some jerk posted a derogatory comment and within a second Bernie was on it big time, while repeatedly apologizing to his viewers. Totally decent guy and met!

    1. Thanks Jimmy. If I am reading the map correctly, Boston-Worcester-Springfield (MA Pike) just misses out on the snow that is just to the south. Hopefully it comes to the Pike in future runs.

  43. 00z 12k shows it JJ and gives your area south of the pike a light snow event while a minor event north of the pike

  45. Regarding Bernie’s “cone of uncertainty” if you split it right down the middle, the track would be just about over Boston, which would not be a good snow track either. We need at least a canal track but preferably over the benchmark. A nice cold high to our NNW would do it.

  46. Tracks OFF the Table:

    1. Great Lakes Cutter
    2. OTS

    Tracks Still in Play:

    1. Inland Runner
    2. Coastal Hugger
    3. Benchmark

    Hopefully first two will be eliminated in future runs. 😀

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