Sunday Forecast

89 Comments

7:41AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 21-25)…
Weak low pressure skirts southeastern New England with a touch of rain/snow tonight, otherwise generally fair weather will dominate today and Monday during each daytime. Fair weather continues Tuesday though clouds will advance ahead of a broad low pressure area in the eastern US. This low is likely to take a track over western New England or even further west than that by Thursday, returning unsettled weather to the region for midweek.
TODAY: Sun to clouds. Highs middle 40s to lower 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy early with a period of rain/mix/snow possible mainly southern MA to South Coast. Breaking clouds later. Lows upper 20s to lower 30s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming mostly NE to N.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Sunny start. Cloudy finish. Lows upper 10s to lower 20s. Highs in the 30s.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Mix to rain. Temperatures rise 30s to 40s.
THURSDAY: Mainly cloudy with rain, possibly heavy, followed by partial clearing west to east by late. Temperatures rise 40s to 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 26-MARCH 1)…
Fair and chilly February 26. Risk of rain/snow showers February 27, slightly milder. Much colder with a chance of snow showers February 28. Fair and cold February 29 and March 1.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 2-6)…
Colder than normal with one or 2 storm threats possible during this period.

89 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  5. TK – After this week, will the remaining storm threats likely be more white then wet? Or either way at this point?

    1. Some trees near our house are tapped by a local sugar house. I just peeked into the vat, which is huge, much bigger than a bathtub. It is nearly full. There is also some ice in it.

      1. Thanks Stephen. I just saw a sugar house post an update on their Facebook. They said the Sap is flowing and will start tours next week.

  7. The sap has has been flowing on top of my car now for at least three weeks the exception has been on the very cold days. I am in RI. Near TF Grene airport. Ground down here unfrozen probably why we were 57 degrees yesterday. We will probably have a lot of red flag days by mid March. Any thoughts TK? Have a great day all love the blog.

    1. Many red flag days through April.
      Lack of snow cover. The ground is barely wet and will dry out fast as I expect a lot of sun this spring before leaf-out.

  10. 60+ possible Thursday in warm sector.
    May be in the teens during the day next Sunday.
    Forgive me if I say I absolutely love those huge contrasts. 🙂

  11. CPC says BELOW normal temps 6-10 and 8-14.
    TK says BELOW normal temps 5-10 and 11-15.
    Why repeat yourself? 😉

  12. I think we start as snow/mix Tuesday evening because there’s going to be some overrunning and a piece of energy loosely connected to but not completely related to what makes the larger eventual storm. Wednesday looks like a damp day, drizzle/rain. We bust into the warm sector Thursday but somewhere in there we get a ribbon of downpours and things may be moving along so quickly that we may see sun before Thursday is over. This system evolves quite differently from how I had the initial feeling it might play out. But truth be told, it was only a small set of differences in the atmosphere that will make the difference between a set of strung out lows and mostly snow/mix here to one larger inland-tracking low with mainly rain here. It could have gone either way.

    1. You’re probably close to your high temp. Clouds moving in and weak cold advection but what a great weekend temp-wise for late February unless you were trying to cross country ski or ice skate!

  15. Someone on my street mowing their lawn…no joke…which is odd since its muddy and has a few snow patches.

      2. Haha that’s funny. Figured he was testing it out but is hardcore mowing. Grass hasn’t even grown. He’s retired and bored and always putzing around.

        1. I could see if it was drier and they were making some attempt to “suck up” loose debris into a catcher, but wouldn’t you need to loosen it with a rake, even if it wasn’t a touch too early to do this kind of thing?

          Although I must admit, being outside yesterday in upper 50s, the temptation to start cleaning up the yard was there. I know it’s not really worth it yet as without the freeze up it’s soft and a little muddy. It won’t be long.

  16. The HRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR model brings precip into most of eastern MA (rain to mix with a touch of snow) tonight but no accumulation. I can see a dusting at best now. This system just never had a chance to get cranking and slide a bit north, so it’s almost to be a non-event.

  17. WW that is funny!! I’ve actually had many customers running there mowers across there lawns to pick up any light loose debris in preparation of spring, and 1st visits.

      1. It doesn’t do a great job, but it picks up a little, but it’s more about them actually laboring and physically moving/picking up twigs and scattered small branches.

        1. Thanks. I figured. I usually go around and pick up all the big stuff by hand, then give a rake to loosen up the crap before I run any mower. My lawn isn’t great but I try to follow in my father’s footsteps somewhat to keep it decent.

  18. 12z GFS ….. 978mb just west of Buffalo, NY.

    I guess as the energy approaches the west coast of the U.S., phasing is becoming more apparent.

  19. Well I can see the temptation because as clean as you get your yard for the up coming winter if never fails to look worse in the spring at least here that’s the case . Dogs , trash , any winter damage etc. my yards all mud with the digging they did putting in the swim spa I hate it.

  20. Precipitation for the past (almost) 14 months back to January, 2015 is still -8.5″ below average. We are just slightly above normal for precip for 2016, but were almost 9.0″ behind for 2015.

  21. Speaking of cross-country skiing, I couldn’t go last Monday because I had a stomach virus. It would have been a perfect day to cross-country ski and unfortunately we’ve had very few of these. I’m hoping I can still do some cross-country skiing in the near future. But, given that this next system will be a rain producer, even up north, I’m afraid my chances of cross-country skiing aren’t good this year. Hence, my only quibble with TK’s wonderful description of this winter (his two posts yesterday). I am NOT disappointed in the winter here in SNE, as we’ve had some bits and pieces of it. However, I am very disappointed in the lack of snow up north and interior central NE as it’s been the worst season up there as well as the interior central NE in a long time. 2011-2012 was better, believe it or not. There were plenty of rainstorms here back in 2011-2012 that produced several substantial snowstorms up there. This year, it’s been a very meager amount of snow up north, except far northern Maine.

  22. What a difference a week and a year makes!

    It was -12.5 here (western end of Taunton) a year ago today.
    It was -10.3 a week ago today.

    It’s 51.8 right now!!!!

    2. Exactly and I have a pic of 3ft of snow with 6ft snow banks. Totally opposite, it’s almost like are we living in the same place. Lol!! Crazy!!

  24. Today’s 1st (easy) AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    The polar vortex in winter is most common over where?

    A. Mexico
    B. Western United States
    C. Central Canada
    D. Gulf of Mexico

    Today’s 2nd (more difficult) AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    Icy roads can increase stopping distance compared to dry roads by how much? (I took this to mean what was the most or higher end. I still got it wrong.)

    A. 3 times
    B. 7 times
    C. 10 times
    D. 13 times

    Answers later today.

          1. 🙂 :):)

            My process this time….but don’t tell anyone….was to be a touch different from TK. Seeeee….very scientific !!

  26. im sorry but this year is a much better ski season than that of 2011/2012, we have had snow and enough days that were cool enough for snow making/maintaining it. 2011/2012 wachusett was barely opened. Most skiing areas only had 50% of their terrain opened

    1. It’s kind of post-Valentines. The idea is to transition toward a grey then a green into March then as we pass St. Pat’s Day head quickly into Easter colors then general Earth type colors as things start to flower and leaf.

  30. Matt, you’re right about Wachusett re: 2011-2012, but I’m sure Killington, Jay’s Peak, and Bretton Woods had more snow during that season than they’ve had this year. My brother-in-law skis at Killington and Jay’s Peak a ot, and while they’ve been able to make snow they’ve had less than 50 inches of natural snow this season. That’s an incredibly low amount by their standard. My daughter worked at Bretton Woods in 2011-2012. It was not a good season, but they had more natural snow than this year. The difference there is not as stark as in Vermont, but still a noticeable difference. They’re just not had many snowstorms of magnitude. Oddly, yesterday was snowy up there with about 5 inches, but that’ll be washed away Wednesday, sadly. They’re not operating at capacity, needless to say.

  33. Snow to the south for early next week with this run of 18z GFS
    ttp://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016022118&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=210

  35. 5:45 and still semi light. Vicki ….who is great on the stove and not on the grill..is attempting to grill steaks.

  36. On the way back from a day skiing at Stratton in Vt. Conditions were not so bad all things considered. Despite minimal natural snow cover, the mountain had good coverage and 80 of 97 trails open. Kudos to the snow makers there. Temps were in the upper 30s with soft snow at the base but the upper mountain never made it out of the upper 20s and some of the trails were very icy. It’s not going to be pretty next weekend after another monsoon and surge into the 50s followed by a cold blast.

  37. Answer to today’s 1st (easy) AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    The polar vortex in winter is most common over where?

    A. Mexico
    B. Western United States
    C. Central Canada
    D. Gulf of Mexico

    Answer to today’s 2nd (more difficult) AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    Icy roads can increase stopping distance compared to dry roads by how much?

    A. 3 times
    B. 7 times
    C. 10 times
    D. 13 times

    The answers are C & C.

  38. Joshua, agree with Matt about the comparison to the 2011-2012 ski season. That year was about as bad as it gets. It never got cold enough for sustained snowmaking and ski areas were closing up shop in mid March. This year hasn’t been great but the ski areas are managing.

    1. Being in the swim spa this afternoon in my yard in February was weird but felt great . It has Finally reach the 100 degree setting it was set at Friday afternoon . It was filled from the hose but did not think it would take all weekend to reach that mark .

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