Monday Forecast

161 Comments

1:55AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 29-MARCH 4)…
A pair of cold fronts will come through the region, one midday today and one about midnight tonight. The final (extra) day of February will be quite mild, but colder air will arrive overnight to start March on a chilly note. Quick-moving systems mean that a warm front will approach during Tuesday with clouds rolling in. Its parent low will pass northwest of southern New England early Wednesday with a round of rain showers at some point Wednesday with a cold front. High pressure builds in with fair and chilly weather Thursday. Low pressure develops and moves south of the region by Friday, and with cold air in place we’ll have to watch for some mix/snow, though it’s a little early to determine how productive this system will be here in southern New England. It is even still possible this system is further south and misses most of if not all of the region.
TODAY: Sun starts and ends the day. Variably cloudy with a possible passing rain shower in between. Highs in the middle 50s to lower 60s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W in the afternoon.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear early and overnight. A period of cloudiness and maybe a snow flurry in between. Lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW overnight.
TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs in the lower to middle 40s. Wind light NW shifting to E.
WEDNESDAY: Scattered light mix/rain morning. Rain showers likely early-mid afternoon. Late-day clearing. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 50s.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow/mix. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 5-9)…
Unsettled weather with possible periods of snow/mix March 5 to early March 6 as low pressure offshore is slow to depart. Fair later March 6. Possible unsettled weather from a weaker system later March 7 into March 8. Fair weather returns for March 9. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 10-14)…
A milder start with mostly fair weather then a colder finish with possible unsettled weather.

161 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  2. No matter how this winter ends, this was the fastest one I’ve exoerienced. Maybe just because I’ve been so busy.

    1. I agree I’ve been saying that . I believe it was because the winter was warm and lack of snow made it fly by in my opinion . March first is tomorrow and winter is on its last leg regardless of anymore snow or cold it will be short lived .

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Well now the GFS has the system for 3/4,3/5, but takes it just South of us.

    The Euro takes it Well South of us.

    The CMC takes it closest of the 3 and bring accumulating snow to SNE, although only
    something like 4-6 inches or so.

    The FIM has it well South of us as well.

    The point is, all of the models have this system now and it is a question of does it
    stay South or move up this way. Odds are it stays South, BUT it has to be watched
    as it is a potential biggie.

  5. Happy Leap Day Everyone! 😀

    Vicki…I live in Dorchester. I find it interesting that every spring your flowers are a good week or two ahead of mine. Currently, only my snowdrops are up and everything else in my yard are still dormant. There is definitely a difference in coastal vs. inland vegetation! 🙂

  6. Thank you TK

    Happy Leap Day All

    Philip, thank you. I also think we are ahead of daughter in Uxbridge. You are right that location sure makes a difference

    Retrac, I completely agree. March tomorrow? But it seems the entire end of last year went in the blink of an eye also.

  7. Thanks TK. I agree that we need to watch the possible late week system, we’ve seen several storms trend north/west this year.

    That may be the end of winter though. I’ll throw in a bold prediction: First 70 degree day for most of SNE somewhere around 3/10. December(2015)-like pattern takes over, at least for a couple days.

  8. TK – How is the MJO looking the next two weeks? If I understood you correctly, we need it to go down to a 1 or 2 for snow.

        1. Based on this Winter so far, I am quite pessimistic, however, hopeful if that makes sense. 😀

          Did you follow it ahead to see IF I got the correct piece.
          When I followed it backwards, that is where it ended up.

          It has to evolve quite a bit from there and without adequate sampling out there, how can be trust the placement of the system come 3/4 or 3/5??

  9. Tom, it’s indeed 50F in Burlington VT, but it is in the teens and snowing in Quebec City and northern Maine. Talk about contrasts. Over 18 inches of snow in southern Quebec, and 10 inches in far northern Maine. I guess one could call that storm a potent clipper. It just churned along the jet stream. Perhaps much of the snow is overrunning and a result of the sharp contrasts in temperature? I don’t know.

  10. Thanks, TK.

    Haven’t seen any flora around Sudbury (in my neighborhood, anyway) except some of the trees look like they want to bud. And birds started singing in early morning about a week ago.

    1. Heard first red-winged blackbird this morning (mating call). Earlier than usual. My guess is they checked TK’s forecast before heading north.

      2. Me too! Also first heard robin sing its territory or mating song yesterday in Bedford. Surprising because I don’t usually hear them sing until late March.

      1. Sorry I posted this in the wrong place

        Did you follow it ahead to see IF I got the correct piece.
        When I followed it backwards, that is where it ended up.

        It has to evolve quite a bit from there and without adequate sampling out there, how can be trust the placement of the system come 3/4 or 3/5??

  12. Please note, From NWS record highs for today:

    BOS…64/1880/FORECAST HIGH 60
    PVD…62/1976/FORECAST HIGH 58
    BDL…64/1976/FORECAST HIGH 58
    ORH…56/1976/FORECAST HIGH 55

    Are any of these possibly attainable?

  13. I was wondering if anything memorable happened weatherwise on Leap Day, (bitter cold, major snowstorm, etc.) So I looked back into the Boston weather records for February 29 to 1872 (which also was a leap year)…

    February 29 has been pretty dull ’round these parts.

    Record high, 64 (1880) as noted above
    Record low, 3 (1884)
    Record precipitation (rain in this case), 0.56″ (1880)
    Record snowfall, 1.3″ (1968)
    Record snow depth, 14″ (1892)

    Four of these records happened in the 19-century.

    This research also proves that I have way too much time on my hands.

          1. Quite alright. There was so much misery at this last year, it seemed like there were 40 days in February!!!

  14. I did find out that a leap year in not automatically every four years.

    A leap year has to be divisible evenly by not only 4, but 400. 2000 was a leap year, but 1900, 1800, and 1700 were not leap years.

    As Johnny Carson would say, “I did not know that!”

  16. In the Gregorian calendar three criteria must be taken into account to identify leap years:
    The year can be evenly divided by 4;
    If the year can be evenly divided by 100, it is NOT a leap year, unless;
    The year is also evenly divisible by 400. Then it is a leap year.

    Better explanation.

    1. As is the case with Carson — I did not know that either. I love this type of information. Thank you, Captain.

  17. Thank you tk 🙂

    We have 3 vehicles in southern ri applying lime visits today and tomorrow. It’s really nice out here today, the trucks say 56 degrees. Looks like a brief 1-2 hour shower between noon-2pm. Enjoy the day!!

    1. I see the webcams up in QC are not working properly. The only thing you see is a summer scene still at all the city’s webcams. They’ll probably be back up soon.

  27. Charlie, QC is indeed a cold place for many months of the year, but it is an absolute gem. In North America, I love the city like no other besides Boston. Patrice Bergeron is from there, and lives in the city during the off-season. I’m sure he – like so many from there – was practically born on a pair of skates. You’re a spring person. Spring comes late to Quebec City, obviously. But, once it gets going in May it is generally better than Boston’s spring. Sunnier, much less rain, much less variability, no humidity. So, if you get a chance to visit you should. I can pretty much guarantee you’d like it.

    1. Wow ….

      Anytime its a warm airmass, temps keep overperforming by about 5F.

      Tell tale sign of long term precip deficits.

      Can you guess the impact that is coming down the road if we sit under a ridge with blazing high angle sunshine ??

      1. For now, the rivers in this area are quite full which is nice to see but your worry has me worried for the seasons to come.

  29. If the GFS is correct, the first 70F day and the first guess in the contest, is coming probably before March 15th.

  32. 12Z Euro has the Northern edge of the precipitation field “just” South of us.
    A change of about 100 Miles to the North compared to the same time on
    the 0Z run.

    Is this a case of: “Your Grand Mother is on the roof”? for those of you that know
    that one.

    Getting closer all the time. Could it get up here? Well, the CMC certainly thinks so, but we cannot go by that. We need the Euro and/or the GFS to come on board AND
    there is still time for that, so we shall see.

    The fact that the Euro has come North and it is beginning to show some curvature
    at the 500 and 300 mb level, is somewhat encouraging, at least until the next
    run suppresses it farther South. We shall see.

      1. That is highly unlikely. It is more likely an OTS or HIT situation
        or anything in between as in various forms of a grazing.

      2. My gut says that the Euro will keep creeping closer and the GFS
        will catch onto this. But how often is my gut correct?

        We shall see. It shall be fun watching it all unfold, perhaps for
        the last time this Winter. TK does mention one more possible threat, so time will tell.

  38. Does the GFS or Euro give us any precipitation with their current tracks? (Which I understand are likely to change 5 days out).

    1. Hmm looks like it will sprout a coastal, in fact the beginnings can be seen
      on the NC/SC coast. The coastal likely will take over, BUT does it slide
      out South of us? That is the question.

  41. If the storm happens, I will not need to cancel my plans for the weekend 😀
    I want to acknowldege the EURO and GFS have been shifting north, the Canadian has gone between two scenerios but been relatively consistant back and furth between the oozs and 12zs

  43. For all of us that work on a fixed salary per month today is the employer’s bonus day. They’re getting free labor, essentially.

    1. I am on a 2 week pay period. I have to look more carefully, but I think I get
      one extra day’s pay for 2016, but I DID work for it! And what a day it was!!!

  45. Tk going into next week, especially midweek forward,(Wed,Thu,Fri) I’m seeing 60+ degrees? What do you think?

  47. Boston’s first 70 degree day: March 28.
    Boston’s first 80 degree day: April 29.
    Boston’s first 90 degree day: May 30.

    Will Boston reach 100? No, but they will hit 99 more than once. 😉

    Will repost the 3 official guesses on the Contest Page.

  48. Boston’s first 70 degree day: April 2.
    Boston’s first 80 degree day: April 30.
    Boston’s first 90 degree day: June 15.

  52. NWS says that with the Wednesday rainstorm being more progressive now will produce the upstream blocking necessary for the weekend snow to move up the coast and nail us.

    Am I understanding this correctly?

    2. Think you have it correct.

      FRI INTO SAT…
      AHHH…CHAOS EFFECT. TRICKY FORECAST HERE. THE FASTER PROGRESSION
      OF THE MID-WEEK STORM SUGGESTS BETTER UPSTREAM RIDGING AND SETUP
      FOR THE BLOCKING HIGH LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS IS ALSO APPARENT IN
      FORECAST NAO/PNA SHIFTING FROM POSITIVE…TO NEUTRAL/NEGATIVE.

  53. According to Eric, this weekend will be winter’s “last hurrah” (his exact words) and a major warmup for next week and he gave the impression that it will be permanent.

    1. Again, assuming operational runs of GFS are correct. I’m still not sure why so many mets declare things “done” so early. THEY KNOW BETTER! We had some very mild to warm weather for a stretch of time in March 1997 including the DAY BEFORE the storm that resulted in the April Fools Blizzard began. It was in the 60s the day before!

    2. I saw Eric say that too.

      That must be his time in Atlanta. Maybe down there the last winter airmass comes in early March. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  55. Tk
    Re:above and beING done.
    Have you read Dr. Cohen’s blog today?
    If I read it correctly he is predicting
    Very cold weather here from mid March into early april. When you have a chance
    Could you read it and comment?
    Many tx

    1. Ugh that is so far out how can any one or model have that as a single prediction. It’s 50/50 chance of being warm or cold by end of March or early April.

      1. You need to read his blog. This guy has a PhD in atmospheric physics and knows his stuff, believe me. Sure does not mean he is right but he is pretty damn good. Read it and you will see.

  56. TK, you make an excellent point regarding mets’ declaring the end of winter.

    There are some similarities between 1997 and 2016, and some major differences. Start with the differences: February 1997 was warm. In fact, we had 60 plus days and really no major cold. February 2016 was volatile temperature-wise, with record-breaking cold and warmth. Now on to March. March 1997 was rather volatile, included several very cold days (felt colder than the rest of the winter, as I recall), a mini snowstorm in the middle of the month, and near record warmth at the end. We know what happened on April 1st. I can see March 2016 being volatile. Here’s the issue. The cold is relatively close by, as it was in March 1997. It may remain too far to impact us much, but it may also be a factor in giving us significant snow chances.

  57. Re: Dr cohen
    He also stated that he expects snow
    Cover to advance across Eastern us
    The 1/2 of March.

    DID Eric read that????

  58. I would like to make a bold prediction. I declare winter over in exactly 20 days….minus about 14 hours of course.

      1. We’re not seeing a shift of seasons, just a shift of patterns. We’ve been in a very mild El Nino driven pattern with short cold bursts. We may enter a longer cold spell (relative to what we’ve seen) in response to a neutral to negative NAO.

        1. Thanks TK. The seasons seem to me to have been shifting for a while. I thought maybe this year would break the pattern.

          1. It very well may. I still think we go back to seasonable to mild not long after Equinox.

            The long term climate data does not suggest any seasonal shift at this point. This can seem to be the case when we’ve had a majority of our warm/dry weather in late Summer and some of our coldest weather in late Winter, and because of the timing of large scale indices, such as ENSO, this has been the case recently. If you look at this in a longer term, you’ll see it balances out.

            1. Thank TK. I have a feeling…based on nothing…that this will be one of our earlier springs. March is a fickle lady and that makes it fun

  61. We had our snow blitz last year. Southern Quebec and far northern Maine is having its snow blitz now. A week ago over 20 inches fell. Several days ago 8 more. Yesterday up to 20 inches fell. Another potent storm will impact the border region tomorrow.

    From Environment Canada: Snowfall amounts possibly exceeding 30 centimetres (> foot) are expected from Tuesday evening through Wednesday. The snow combined with strong winds will also give nil (as in zero) visibility.

    My guess is given where the cold is and the jet stream sits – and hence storms travel – northern New England and southern Quebec are in for a March to remember. This includes brutal cold at the end of this week and into the weekend.

    All this may have no impact at all on southern New England at all if the pattern continues locking the cold air > 250-300 miles north of us. But, I would not discount the possibility of surprise incursions and buckling of the jet stream.

    1. The problem is, if/when the NAO goes neutral/negative, the cold air doesn’t stay locked up there.

  62. Judah Cohen also predicted a cold winter for the Eastern US this year and it has been anything but. Not to mention his wild end to the winter from Feb 15-Mar 15 did not/does not appear to be materializing either. I will acknowledge he got the cold winter forecast right last year but he linked it to a strongly negative AO (AO actually turned out to be positive much of the winter).

    I am a bit skeptical that we suddenly flip to a period of very cold weather for several weeks to start spring, especially in this progressive pattern which seems locked in.

    1. His past performance will not have any impact on the current predictions. That happens to all of us. I did not agree with him as much last Winter and he was more correct. I also did not agree with him that much heading into this Winter and he was not as correct.

      Yes there is uncertainty in the medium to long range prediction right now, as is expected when we’re waiting for an ENSO phase shift, seeing rapid but low amplitude MJO shifts, and awaiting a strongly-forecast NAO phase shift. Any experienced meteorologist cannot ignore this signs and will have a better handle on them than others.

      We’re also about to get a stronger team member in the model community starting on March 8. This will help.

      1. Thanks TK. Its unfortunate that the -NAO and ENSO/MJO shifts, if they do materialize, are happening so late in the season. It gets harder and harder for things to come together right by then and produce a decent storm with all the other late season factors (sun angle, etc) working against us.

        2. I’m not calling for a dive into long lasting mid Winter weather. It’s all relative. I’m talking about the weather pattern.

  63. TK, you have been saying the past few weeks that you think we flip to more of a spring like pattern after the middle of March or so – what has changed your thoughts?

    1. I still think it, just delayed…
      Not the first time this has taken place, nor will it be the last.

  65. I don’t think all of a sudden winter is going to flip a switch into frigid cold and major storms I just don’t see it . Once we hit March I totally agree it can be cold and some years we get snow. Once March hits though it’s running out of time or short lived is the better word . It’s like getting really warm days in the fall but you know those warm days are short lived. I will say I don’t think we are done with the snow as I could see say one more plowable event . This is just my opinion only . I have major projects about to happen here so I welcome the Warner days ahead . I hired the second contractor tonight and probably two more by weeks end.

    1. I understand the Euro parallel has been up on Weatherbell for awhile now. I occasionally see its results posted by people on other forums and it seems to be performing well. Curious how it compares to the operational for the late week storm.

  67. Regarding the Friday/Saturday threat, the models have been ticking north today, including the Euro ensembles that now brush the Cape and islands with some snow. There are also a few GFS ensembles which hit much of SNE pretty hard. But we are now 4 days out from this storm so time is getting short. Will be interested to see if the trend continues at 0z and the CMC holds course with its blizzard for SNE. It has been fairly consistent, I’ll give it that.

  68. 0z GFS looks a tick closer for the Friday storm but not close enough. Grazes RI and southeast MA with some snow…generally an inch or less, perhaps two on the Cape.

  69. Remarkably mild Winter 2015-2016 but NOT as far above normal in Boston as the remarkably cold Winter 2014-2015 was below normal (meteorological Winter Dec-Feb). The cold won that battle. 😉

  70. Just to be clear…
    1) I’m aware of the time of year. March is about to begin.
    2) Winter does not end, as an astronomical season, until March 20 2016.
    3) When I say a shift in the pattern I am not implying a return to February 2015. The comparison is relative to the pattern we have been in for most of the Winter, which was actually forecast accurately by some outlets (not so accurately by others, but that’s the science for you).

  71. Would not be surprised to see a Winter Weather Advisory issued for parts of north central MA soon for the start of the precipitation event on Tuesday night. Snow and/or ice may be involved.

    1. Still an error. The CMC is notorious for significantly over-developing low pressure centers, especially near the East Coast. That is what makes the CMC very unreliable. It’s only right with such development a small percentage of the time.

      ECMWF/GFS blend is the far more likely solution. Also, in the longer term, we’ll see the GFS start to back off from the anomalous warmth later in the period on upcoming runs. These are the first steps in a correction by the model in which it will start to recognize the emergence of a blocking pattern by placing more high pressure in central and northern Canada.

      1. I have noticed that with the CMC, just surprised it hasn’t backed off yet. It’s placement of the High to the north near Maine looks off compared to the GFS and Euro as well, which allows it to come up the coast more, though it seems to be trending closer to the GFS and Euro with this latest run.

  73. No real change with the 0z Euro. Late week ocean storm stays well out to sea, just brushing the Cape and islands with a little snow.

  74. The NAM is coming into range for 3/4 system.

    At 18Z on 3/4 it has a deepening low parked just off the NC coast.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2016030106&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=084

    The 500 mb chart is begining to looks pretty good.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2016030106&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=084

    H0wever, the death blow is given by the 200mb chart.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2016030106&var=GRDHGT_200mb&hour=084

    No way that thing gets up here with that 200 mb configuration. (that would have
    to change significantly) Any precip depicted by the NAM are remnants of the original primary system and not from the developing coastal.

    So the storm will be steered NE by the 500mb flow, but that whole 500MB flow will
    be pushed due East by the 200 MB flow, resulting in a ENE path of the storm itself.
    See YA. OTS.

    But we watch in case anything changes.

  75. The energy for this system comes ashore about 10PM tonight. Tomorrow’s
    12Z Runs should really tell the tale.

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