Wednesday Forecast

162 Comments

2:20AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 6-10)…
You’ll feel the chill to start the day, but this time it will be without any wind. Still, a bit of January in April. There will be a recovery back to the 40s today as clouds increase ahead of a warm front and more of the recently-fallen snow melts away. The warm front passes tonight, possibly with spotty light precipitation ahead of it, and then Thursday we’ll be into the warm air with everybody well into the 50s and a chance of rain showers, but an approaching cold front will bring a ribbon of heavier rain into the region by Thursday evening. Behind this front on Friday the air won’t be that cold initially, but a disturbance in the area means some cloudiness and a risk of a passing rain shower. A secondary front brings much cooler to colder air for the weekend. The wild card will be what happens with a developing ocean storm and whether or not its close enough to bring a period of snow Saturday night. For now, I continue to lean toward this system staying just too far offshore for much impact, but will continue to monitor it.
TODAY: Increasing clouds. Highs in the 40s. Wind light SE.
TONIGHT: Cloudy with spotty light sleet/rain evening. Mostly cloudy overnight. Lows in the 30s evening, then temperature rising into the 40s overnight. Wind light SE becoming and increasing to 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Scattered rain showers then an area of moderate to heavy rain arriving west to east late in the day. Highs in the 50s. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy evening with rain and a slight risk of thunderstorms, tapering off west to east. Mostly cloudy with isolated rain showers overnight. Lows in the 40s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, shifting to W and increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers. Highs in the 50s. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain or snow showers. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Windy. Lows in the 20s. Highs around 40.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 11-15)…
Warm front approaches April 11 with clouds and a risk of scattered light mix/rain especially northwest. Cold front approaches April 12 with milder weather but a risk of rain showers. High pressure builds over eastern Canada and should be enough to keep unsettled weather to the south but also keep it on the cooler side, especially near the coast, April 13-15. If the high is not as strong, unsettled weather may reach the region.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 16-20)…
Continuing to lean toward the drier side of a typical April blocking pattern with mostly fair weather and temperatures near to slightly below normal.

162 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  1. Thank you tk 🙂

    It’s not as cold as I thought. It’s 20.7 degrees. Off we go!! Check back later after work. Enjoy!!

  2. Good morning and thank you tk.
    Re sat night.
    Euro wants to dump 10 inches on boston!
    Holy crap batman!
    4 days out from that run. Getting close enough that the run has to be seriously considered. NAM seems to support it.
    Gfs perhaps not so much. Guess i’ll turn computer on.

      1. Fim

        http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim7_jet/2016040600/130/3hap_sfc_f096.png

        ukmet

        http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=072&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=096

        dgex

        http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_6z/f090.gif

        jma

        http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_120HR.gif

        MF-ARPEGE / Explorer

        http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=arpege&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=arpege&stn2=PNM&hh2=000&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=102

  4. re: sat night

    Wide spread among the models. So we wait some more to see.

    From NWS and they mention inverted trough

    SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY…MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

    AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHES CLOSER ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
    DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND PAST EAST NEAR SOUTHERN NEW
    ENGLAND AS IT HEADS TOWARDS THE MARITIME. THIS IS SYSTEM IS ONE TO
    WATCH AS IT COLD BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF APRIL SNOW TO SOUTHERN NEW
    ENGLAND. TRENDED THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE EC AS IT IS SUPPORTED BY
    THE SEVERAL MEMBERS OF THE GEFS AND UKMET. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE
    LEAST ROBUST AND TO FAR OUT TO SEA. REGARDLESS…IF THIS LOW DOES
    PASS FARTHER TO THE EAST WE STILL COULD GET INFLUENCED BY THE
    INVERTED TROUGH.

    1. Too much wind. They never had a chance to get to the record. I was sure the wind would drop off there. NOPE!

  9. It seems like we would get snowfall based on an inverted trough, Each model will continue to have it in different locations, will have the storm in different locations, We won’t have a good idea on what will happen till Friday.

  10. Would be hilarious if April got a snow blitz and got us to the same amounts as last year ha.

  11. Let’s see which TV station is first to plaster the Euro’s snow on the screen…

    3. I would gues it depends on which station has the stronger corporate policy to get the news our first.

        1. I think that some got the message that getting the word out first is not necessarily embraced by their viewers. However, I have little faith in corporate to figure out the entire picture so it will still push.

  12. 14 degrees this morning in bogs of East Taunton, one of the coldest April mornings here EVAH.

    Red Sox 2016 World Series tickets go on sale at 9 am.
    Sox 1-0!

    Go Sox!

    Enjoy your day, everyone!

  13. I will accept .4 inches of snow for Boston over the weekend and not a tenth of an inch more. 🙂

          1. Looks as if Mel is right on your tail.

            I put predictions on contest page sorted lowest to highest by Boston only

  14. My thermometer in Back Bay bottomed out at 24F (23.8 to be exact). I’m surprised Logan’s minimum was much higher. On my run very early this morning it felt very much like low to mid 20s. Ice everywhere on the paths, crusty snow. Truly amazing for the 6th of April. One Canadian goose I bumped into asked whether I’d taken a peek at the European model. He said he had and told the family to pack up and head south.

    1. You are fast becoming our resident comedian, reminiscent of Johnnie Carson. 😀

      Btw, very funny. A good one!

      1. I joke, I joke. It is DST so they start an hour later. Used to start at 7AM, now 8AM. NAM used to be ready around 9:30 AM, now 10:30AM. GFS started to come out around 10:30 AM, now about 11:30AM. ARGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHH

        We don’t see the Euro until 2-3 PM depending on how far out
        we want.

  16. If this Sat-Sunday storm comes to fruition do we know yet what the approximate ETA of the snow would be? My son’s 6th birthday party is 4:30 – 6 pm on Saturday – Never thought about the risk of a snow storm when I planned this in Feb – who would have thought?

    2. Big IF. And If so, it looks like some rain to start anywhere from 4-8 PM, changing to Snow later in the evening, say 8-Midnight. This is very very rough,
      based on a storm that hasn’t formed and not all models are calling for it either.
      Just trying to answer a hypothetical question. 😀

      1. Thanks to both of you. Too late to reschedule anyhow but hopefully a miss or just rain through the party. Btw I do not know what I would do without this blog – it really makes winter 100 percent easier for me when I can get mentally prepared for all possibilities well in advance and better understand why there is oftentimes uncertainty. And JPDave – really appreciate the ongoing model links and explanations!

        1. Happy Sixth to your son and to you. I knew when I posted the good things about April yesterday you’d have a positive too. I almost asked if you could chime in 🙂

          It is one heck of a blog, isn’t it. Glad you have joined the family.

          1. Absolutely – it’s my first time participating in any type of blog or online community and I could not have imagined a better one!

  17. NAM looks funky. Shows storm system with virtually no precip North of the center????
    Weird.

    Not sure it gets up here. Few frames to go yet.

    1. reasoning is the upper level wind pattern going North against the storm drawing in very dry air.

  19. Here is the 12KM NAM for Saturday

    5PM

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016040612/namconus_ref_frzn_us_27.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016040612/namconus_z500_vort_us_28.png

    8PM

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016040612/namconus_ref_frzn_us_28.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016040612/namconus_z500_vort_us_29.png

    I do not understand for the life of me WHY this wouldn’t throw precipitation
    farther NorthWest????

    Dry air?
    I didn’t see any Northern Stream jet blowing the top off of this?

    TK, any thoughts? Many thanks

    1. Northern /northeast flow, along a a weak front dragging along a system up in southern Canada.

        1. Even as depicted, this is so awfully close.
          It could easily change.

          Now we wait for the GFS, CMC and finally the KING!
          Let’s see if the Euro is consistent and still has this OR
          it follows suit and keeps it “just” off Shore.

          We shall see.

  20. I think that at 84 hrs on the NAM there are number of reasons why this would look funky. Very interested in the 12z runs for the medium range models, most especially the Euro

  22. The last several times the NAM has done that, it was wrong and the storm was a hit. But as always, past performance does not guarantee future results.

  24. 12Z GFS wants to tilt the trough at 90 hours, but its a little late. When that energy comes round the bend, it’s still too positive and/or upright. Spacing issues again.
    It’s close, but as currently modeled, a tad east it goes. Maybe a few flakes or grauple.
    Long time to go though.
    I’ll be honest, I’m hoping for a whiff. Late season stuff like this doesn’t do many much good. Except if you’re looking for that last bit of white to hold you over till next cold season.
    Kind of like an addict crawling around on the carpet the next morning searching for a little spilled powder from last nights binge to hold them over to the next time.

      1. I’d take average, near average of normal whatever they are. However, anything out of the guidelines of “typical” I find extremely exciting. Let’s face it. I’m a weather lover.

    3. Why are you putting all of your eggs in the GFS basket.
      That model can be a piece of trash at times while other times it can
      be spot on.

      We shall see.

      CMC agrees more with Euro.

        1. Oh, OK. I thought you favored that one for one reason or another.

          Sure that one as depicted is what you said. See ya.
          But I think it will come around. 😀

  26. Lol
    Well, it’ll do what it’s gonna do. Little league baseball season starts next Saturday the 16th. We’ve had one lousy practice so far. Cool weather we can deal with, snow not so much.

    1. Noose? Toaster bath? Or mouth over tail pipe? Or an additional one move where it’s milder winters? Or now springs? Leaves will be coming down in 5 l-6 months. Ehh

      On a side note getting lots done

    1. Its funny you asked. It’s already open!!! Decided to have namco perform the opening this year. Come on over water temp is 46 degrees

  29. Coached little league baseball in the late 90s in Brookline, and also coached soccer during the same period. Soccer is easier to coach in my opinion, and weather is hardly ever an issue. We played in torrential downpours and snow showers. But, baseball is my preferred sport. Weather was very often an issue, in part because there’s so much down time for the kids (time to get cold and be exposed to the elements). Every year we had cancelled practices and games in April, and sometimes May. By the time we really got going it was June and the season was ending. Quite frankly, switching the seasons – baseball in fall (weather tends to be less of a factor, especially in September and October), and soccer in spring – makes more sense. But, the higher-ups didn’t go for that.

  31. We have a 14 game schedule. So to get in the regular season and playoffs before school is out in mid June, you have to start mid April. Like I said, the cool weather isn’t really THAT much of an issue unless its in the 30’s. The snow covered field is the problem now. Although by this weekend, they should be just wet. I’m really really hoping this thing doesn’t do much. Most of the time this late season snow melts fast, and it is. But its been slower because of the ungodly cold.

  33. The North Korean model’s too radioactive at the moment. Shows nuclear bombogenesis just southeast of the benchmark Saturday night …

    On a serious note, DPRK probably doesn’t do its own meteorological modeling. They are signatories to WIS, and provide observational data reports to international weather and climate agencies. The models they use for forecasting include Japanese and Chinese, but also American (GFS!). This 6 minute video explains:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aaqIxYxFucs&nohtml5=False

  34. Here is the 12Z UKMET at 72 hours

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016040612/gem_asnow_neus_17.png

    And at 96, of course impossible to know the route it takes to get there

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=072&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=096

    French model
    84 hours

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=090&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=084

    90 hours

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=096&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=090

    1. Well that was a good one. The Model above purported to be French was indeed
      the Canadian CMC. Sorry about that. Slippery fingers I guess. 😀

  35. How much rain tomorrow tk? All day event. My final decision needs to be made. Thank you!!

    2. There will be scattered showers any time, but any of them may be briefly moderate to heavy. You can work if you can dodge any that come your way. The big stuff should hold off until after 6PM.

  36. 12Z Euro brings system out onto the coast of Far Southern NJ at 12Z Saturday.
    500mb looks like a go. We shall see on next frames. 😀

    1. by 96 hours, it is long gone. Extrapolating, it looks to go about over the benchmark or thereabout. Don’t know on precip just yet. Still waiting.

        1. Of watch next frame show a monster norlun dumping on us! Sure and I’m Santa Clause. 😀

              1. Definitely premature to write this one off. That’s a very potent upper level low sliding beneath us. There is still time for this to consolidate into something better.

    1. The King took a suppository…

      It looks more like the GFS and NAM schooled the King this time around.
      Not over until the Fat Model sings, but it is beginning to look like that. 😀

        1. Close enough. 🙂

          I guess you are more in the 2-3″ but alas we are splitting hairs. Your lawns get another dose of poor man’s fertilizer Sun AM…

  38. Yet another music legend has passed away….Merle Haggard. Not sure what God is putting together up there but it has to be one hell of a band

        1. It was his 79th birthday. He’d been battling double pneumonia since the end of last year I think.

          2. I had just noticed today was his birthday a few days ago when I was looking ahead at my music bdays calendar. Not many have birth date and death date the same.

  39. I’m happy we made up yesterday’s missed day with today. Probably a missed day tommorrow but will make that up on Saturday. All comes out in the wash. Mother Nature is no match. Lol 🙂

  40. Still 90% cover on my lawn and neighbors’ but seeing tips of grass peaking through. Any rain should take the rest easily.

  41. Anyone that opens their pools, do not do it when there is still a chance of snow and cold snaps, it is not good for the piping.

    1. Its ok, I’m still opening mine on the 19th. If it gets a little cold, I run the pump. People down south never close the pool and it gets into the 20’s down there on occasion. They just run the pump at night and everything’s fine.

      1. Thank you!! The pump always running. And you’d be suprised how many pools open in April. Especially when you have heaters. Why have a pool in New England without a heater. It’s only consistently 80+ for 2 in a half months. If I didn’t have a heater the water would be in the 30’s. It’s at 51 currentky and slowly climbing.

  42. I think the Euro just caught on to what the GFS had yesterday. Trough just doesn’t tilt enough, fast enough, and the spacing stinks to get a good bomb. The energy is there, just bad timing. One of the reasons that its hard to get one of these this time of year. The wavelengths shorten up and unless its juuusst right, like Goldilocks and baby bears bed/porage, it aint happening. It also tells me its spring 😉
    The other thing is the GFS handles these northern stream things a little better lately, I think. At least from what I’ve seen. The Euro hasn’t been as good with the snow shenanigans with a pure northern stream event.
    All that said, we still may see a couple wet inches south down toward, dare I say, the Charlie hole 🙂

  43. Still leaning toward the near-miss scenario.
    What will not miss is the wind and cold on Sunday, just in time for my walk along the Charles River. 😉

    1. What do you think of the Euro coming into line with the GFS and the NAM?
      I just don’t get how an INFERIOR model can get it right over one that
      is supposedly far superior. Pretty strange, indeed.

      1. ECMWF has clearly struggled with storm development near the East Coast since the upgrade. It may be performing well overall, but it’s missing details with some important things. I’m not saying this is a lock near-miss, but the odds favor it.

        1. That sounds about right. I do hope they address that issue. Pretty sad state of affairs.

          Sure looks like signs points to a “near miss”, but it is so
          awfully close. It wouldn’t take much.

          Waiting on the couple of 18Z runs.

            1. Sorry that didn’t work.

              He says worry about snow in SNE. He’s not sure, but thinks it Could happen or it could go OTS. That’s basically all you need. 😀

  47. Nothing from the NAM at Tropical Tidbits OR Instant Weather maps OR Pivitol Weather. I am slowing getting panels from NCEP.

  48. 18Z takes system a bit Farther South at 66 hours on the Jersey/Delaware coast.
    500mb and 300mb poised to bring it up here, However, the bottom of the trough
    on the 200mb is SCREAMING West to East, so the motion of the storm will
    be ENE and NOT NE or NNE. We shall see. Oh Yeah and then there is interaction witht he system in Eastern Canada. This thing doesn’t look like it has a snow ball’s chance in Hell!

    1. We are experiencing spikes in traffic that are leading to delays in downloading images from this site, especially when accessing the GFS model data. We appreciate your patience as we implement a solution to address this issue.

  50. All the TV mets now have snow in their forecasts for Saturday night especially for the eastern half of SNE. It is still 3 days away so let’s not give up yet.

    Of course the forecasts vary from snow showers to a period of snow.

        2. Which you declared to be wrong when it was forecasting snow at the same time range, because it was at that time range.

          Can’t have it both ways. 😀

          Of course it may miss, but that’s not solid meteorologic reasoning. Now get out there and start working while it’s not raining steadily. 😀

      2. No, I’m thinking part of the region may get several inches and part of the region gets ZIPPO.

  56. Updated!
    Still leaning more miss than hit for Saturday night but there is a valid and decent chance southern areas get something, so I added that for now, with low to moderate confidence. Jury will be out for a bit longer…

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