Saturday Forecast

61 Comments

1:46AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 19-23)
And now we’re at the last weekend before Thanksgiving and the real heart of the holiday season, and as if on cue, the weather pattern will be changing. It begins today with a bit of a squeeze play starting to set up as low pressure approaches from the west, but remaining far enough to the west to do no more than bring some higher clouds to the area. Some locations will never get to see these clouds, as the other player, a low pressure area offshore, sends some low cloudiness in from the ocean, especially from coastal NH to east coastal MA and eventually starting to spread inland. As the low cloud deck overtakes all areas at night, the cloudiness will be coming in above that from the system to the west, and this system will wrap up into a tight low pressure area that sends a band of rain through the region early Sunday, then wind, colder air, and a few rain/snow showers. Steadier snow with accumulation will be confined to the Berkshires on Sunday. This system will wind up into a significant storm in eastern Canada and be slow to move away, so a windy and cold Monday is expected, and the breeze will hang on into Tuesday through with a little less bite and also more sunshine. High pressure brings fair and chilly weather for the day before Thanksgiving travel on Wednesday.
TODAY: Clouds invade eastern areas with sun to the west giving up to clouds later. Highs 53-58. Wind N shifting to N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Spotty drizzle eastern areas. Lows 43-48. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mainly cloudy morning with a period of rain. Partly sunny afternoon with isolated rain showers. Highs 48-53 morning, falling slowly in the afternoon. Wind SE to SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts morning, W 15-30 MPH with higher gusts afternoon.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated rain and snow showers. Lows 32-37. Wind W 15-30 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Lots of clouds, intervals of sun. Isolated snow showers mainly hills well west and north of Boston. Highs 37-42 southern NH through north central MA, 43-48 elsewhere. Wind chill below 32 at times. Wind W 15-35 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy and breezy. Lows 22-27 except 28-33 Boston and immediate coast and 33-38 Cape Cod. Highs 40-48.
WEDNESDAY: Sunshine, some late clouds. Lows 22-27 interior, 28-33 coast except 33-38 Cape Cod. Highs 40-48.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 24-28)
A system from the west may bring some rain later Thanksgiving Day November 24 especially southern MA, CT, and RI and may struggle to get too far to the north, and may linger into November 25 (“Black Friday”) with some cloudiness especially southern areas. Fair weather November 26 with a threat of unsettled weather returning November 27-28. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 29-DECEMBER 3)
Fair weather early in the period. A system may bring a threat of some rain and/or snow toward the end of the period. Temperatures near to below normal.

61 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  4. Thanks TK.

    If you haven’t heard, today is a very big day in meteorology. The GOES-R satellite is scheduled for launch from Cape Canaveral at 5:42P.M. EST today. The article linked below by Dr. Marshall Shepherd discusses some of the reasons why this is such a game-changer. What we’ve talked about as the future of weather satellites for so long is finally about to become the present!

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2016/11/18/the-goes-r-weather-satellite-launches-saturday-4-reasons-its-a-game-changer/#1705ac3f7c92

    1. Excellent article. Also, an Impressive explanation of how it took coordination and integration of several groups to develop GOES-R. And it seems a bit of a plea at the end not to devalue the agencies.

        1. Ok – so I cannot get out the front door to work on lights until I wrap Christmas presents. I am an Amazon prime queen. I opened the door to eight HUGE boxes and literally could not get by them. My poor delivery people. I’m bad under normal circumstances but they have no idea how bad I am at Christmastime.

  6. Thank you TK

    Also thank you for GOES-R information WeatherWx. I’m anxious to read the information in the link. My mom had a lifelong friend names Rudy Goes so I will not have trouble remembering the name. Although don’t be surprised if I call it Rudy 🙂

    Sue, have fun I America’s home town parade today. You have lovely weather !

  7. Energy level limited here but I’ll get the last of the leaves done today as well as the electric cords out for my Christmas lights, which will be put out as part of my multi-day decorating spree from November 25 through 30.

  8. Good morning and thank you TK.

    If no one has looked, the end of the month could get interesting.

    Here is the 0Z Euro for a week From Monday evening, 10 days out.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016111900/ecmwf_mslpa_us_11.png

    This could be a snowmaker, except maybe not along the coast depending on exact
    wind direction. Temps at 925 and 850 mb well below freezing. A looooong way
    off, but I like seeing these on the charts.

    Boston buoy: Water Temperature (WTMP): 53.8 °F

    Still awfully toasty for this time of year. With a 10 days of “cooler” weather, perhaps it might come down a Degree or perhaps 2, but still NOT enough.

    1. Is the Euro surface wind chart to go with the above.

      Looks like probably too much of an Easterly component. Looks like a wind of
      “ab0ut” 45 Degrees, perhaps 35 or 40. The closer to 0, the better chance for snow. 45 “could” do it, but likely would be mixed rain and snow at best right
      along the coast. FWIW, the Euro precipitation type says mixed.

      1. Yes, but they are beginning to continually show up, which is a very good sign. Sooner or later one WILL materialize. Who knows, perhaps this is the one. I’ll be anxiously awaiting the 12Z run
        to see if it has gone poof. 😀 Probably will, but something else
        will come along.

  10. Those advertised ocean low clouds are doing a great job of holding off here.
    Still nice and SUNNY, although clouds are occasionally visible in the far Eastern
    and Southeastern sky. I can see the cloud deck as I write. 😀

    1. Anyone living in Pittsfield, MA or Albany, NY should be interested in tomorrow for a quick dump of snow, I believe.

      In eastern Mass, not yet in my opinion next 10 days. When there’s storminess, there isn’t enough cold air for late November.

  15. NWS zone forecast for me this afternoon said “partly sunny” and included a chance of showers.

    I was 100% sunny all day. Only a few high clouds in the far SW and low clouds just starting to slide in from the E as the sun sets now.

    1. Meanwhile, here at the Storm HQ World Headquarters, I never saw any sunshine at all today. Of course, I didn’t wake up until 12:30pm, but still no sun. It was completely clear when I got home at 5:30am though, but the sun wasn’t up yet.

      1. I forget where you are. We had sunny in south central MA. If I recall, you are around CT valley. So not much further west

  17. Please see the special post with the information on the snowfall contest!

    Comments under that post should be just guesses for the contest to make compiling easy for our compiler. 😉

  18. Good place to put them

    You can also copy TKs list, put it in your post and just place numbers after

    Tom sorry for same number for concord. My dads area and he would have been 102 this winter. 🙂

  21. Down to 41 here, so the front has gone through. Ahh, but can we get any precipitation
    in here? Probably not anything meaningful.

  22. Lousy 0.05 inch earlier this morning. Whoopie!

    I see I am HIGH so far on the snow totals. So be it.
    I have not been very close in these, except for the big snow year
    where I was reasonable close. I was the 2nd highest guesser, but no cigar
    for me. May I be close again. 😀

  23. Anyone familiar with how to embed either an excel spreadsheet or PDF into a comment on a word press blog ? Or if it is possible.

    I typically create an excel spreadsheet for snow totals. But if I copy and past in the comment, it of course doesn’t align as it would in the confines of the spreadsheet columns. If I can embed a PDF or the spreadsheet it would be easier to view

    Thanks

    1. Word press sucks when it comes to that kind of stuff.
      I don’t know. You can do something like Get a screen shot
      of your spreadsheet (multiple shots if needed) and save them.
      Then use Imgur.com to get an internet link to it like this:

      http://imgur.com/a/lMUmI

        1. Thank Dave. I’m fairly certain it can be done on TKs side. I figured I’d try from this side. Screen shots are a good idea. I’ve yet to figure imgur but may need to

    2. its up to the person in charge of the page. I can do it on my blog, not sure what Tk has as abilities on here.

  24. If I may comment on the dumbing down of some weather forecasts on TV: We all know about the ways in which weather events can be overhyped. In addition to this, what concerns me is the fact that some of our TV forecasters are barely informing the public when it comes to predicting the weather. I’m now seeing more and more forecasts that do not show the positioning of low pressure areas or highs for that matter. Sometimes the cold or warm front signs are not even on the weather maps. So, the viewer is left with predictions of snow totals, wind gust potential, and temperatures, without any causality whatsoever. I guess the average viewer doesn’t care. But, I think that informing the viewer means more than just the surface data. A sports analogy may help explain this. Suppose the Patriots beat the 49ers 38-14 and that’s all they tell you on sports. Wouldn’t you want to know a bit more about the game and how it evolved, what side(s) of the ball was (were) dominant?

    1. I wonder if it is now the directive from management. The way these stations shake things up with little or no respect for the viewer makes me angry. I wish all were like Eric who is instructive. There was a time, as you said, that they were.

  25. Only got a coating of snow where I am. Some flurries right now. If you up further in Litchfield County CT especially elevation above 1,000 feet are the areas getting the most snow out of this.

  27. While I’m limited to the account I can’t actually update the blog post with, then I’ll just go over a few ideas to preview it…

    Rain band was quick overnight and mainly gone other than lingering drizzle this morning. But now we’re into the cold advection solidly across southern New England. The snow expected in the Berks has materialized. Some flakes will fly further east but the accumulation of note will be confined to highest elevations. No big surprises and not unusual whatsoever for this point in the season.

    Monday and Tuesday both windy and cold, but Monday by far will carry more bite.

    The ridge may be quite slow to get to and beyond our longitude and this is keeping me with the idea of Thursday’s system being weaker, and more strung out. We may not see much precipitation from it. We may even end up with some sunshine in the morning depending on the speed of the initial burst of high and mid level moisture. A lot of that would be snow above our heads but have trouble reaching the ground. It warms up sufficiently later for rain but that not may be until later in the day and evening.

    Wildcard is if low pressure tries to reorganize and hang back for a wetter start to Black Friday. Will revisit this. Weekend looks chilly and I’m not sure if the models are going to do well with the next system. They may vary up to a few days with timing at first.

    Should have winter outlook ready tonight if all goes to plan.

  28. Thanks TK. The front just came through several minutes ago in Plymouth, NH. We should see some snowflakes by this evening, but probably no more than a coating. Much better totals in the higher mountains north and west.

  29. Thanks TK. I love love the feel of today so know I will love tomorrow as well. We all know how difficult I am to please so at least I have two nice weather days to enjoy 😉

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