Tuesday Forecast

119 Comments

7:21AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 22-26)
Just a forecast update. Discussion added later.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind WNW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 22-27 except 28-33 closer to coast and urban areas. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny then some clouds late. Highs 40-47. NW 10-20 MPH in the morning, diminishing in the afternoon.
THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny morning with spotty light snow possible northern MA and southern NH early. Partly sunny to mostly cloudy afternoon with a chance of rain showers favoring southern MA, CT, and RI. Lows 28-35. Highs 40-47.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny morning. Mainly cloudy with a risk of rain afternoon. Lows 30-37. Highs 43-50.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain/drizzle, mainly morning. Lows 35-42. Highs 43-49.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 27-DECEMBER 1)
The pattern will be somewhat active with low pressure areas are likely to affect the region about every other day. Odds favor rain over snow for most areas.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 2-6)
Similar pattern with one or two low pressure areas impacting the region with rain, though there may be enough cold air around to have mix or snow involved for parts of the region.

119 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    It now looks like even our Saturday system isn’t going to amount to much.

    I just do not see any consistency in model runs at all.

    Next event of any possible significance looks to be around Dec 1st or 2nd or thereabout.

    We shall see.

    I finally got my AcuRite upgrade. Although my weather station has been functioning
    for home use, without the upgrade I was not able to view my station remotely nor
    was my station able to report to Wundermap. Now it is working perfectly and I have
    a brandy new mobile app to go with it. Very nice. I highly recommend this unit. There may be a better unit out there, but for the money, this unit is truly outstanding.

    Hey, while I am at it, a question for those who have ran gauges. What happens when it snows? I do not believe that my gauge has any heat associated with it to melt the
    snow. It is only battery operated. So I presume the snow sits there and clogs it until
    it melts OR I remove it?

    Many thanks

    1. Is a ran gauge something that measures how much you have ran that day?

      but yeah probably clogs it if its more than a light snowfall

    1. At one point, I heard today, but I am not certain. Let me check my site and see
      if it has any info. Be back.

      1. I wish have access to more EURO features there are the basic stuff on Tropical tidbits. Wish the EURO was like the gfs in which there were sites with the snowmaps around that you did not have to pay for.

            1. Here is a summary:

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                1. For now. They keep adding items. I love it and would be lost without it.

                  For a measly $9.95 per month, every blog member should consider it. No I Am NOT on commission from the site. 😀 I just love the product.

              2. A wee bit more than what is available on Tropical TidBits. 😀

                Of course if you really want to go hog wild, you could consider a subscription service like
                Weather Bell.

    1. DT NEGATIVE factors for cold and/or snowy Winter

      NEGATIVE FACTORS
      The early season development of a the POLAR VORTEX (PV) overnorthern Siberia and locking into that position.
      This can be considered to be a unfavorable, if not hostile factor, with regard to seeing either average or above normal snowfall.
      Temperatures will likely run either average or Above normal for the central and eastern U.S as long as the PV stays in Siberia.
      This is considered to be a positive factor however for the western third of the CONUS with respect to Above Normal precipitation
      and Below normal temps. That being said it needs to be kept in mind that it is still mid November and the odds significantly
      favor the PV shifting from its current position in northern Siberia.
      The very strong enhanced Pacific jet which is dominating the northern hemisphere pattern – this can be considered to be a
      unfavorable if not hostile factor with regard to seeing either average or above normal snowfall for the central and eastern U.S..
      Temperatures will likely run either average or Above normal for the central and eastern U.S as long as Pacific jet continues to be
      enhanced. In the weather biz, this is often call the “Pacific Jet firehose” . This is considered to be a positive factor however for
      the western third of the CONUS with respect to Above Normal precipitation and Below normal temps. But again it is still early
      and the odds significantly favor strong Pacific jet stream breaking down and allowing for a significant change in the pattern at
      some point during the winter season .

  6. Matt and others:

    re: Euro Upgrade

    Here is the response I received from the host of the Subscription Euro Site:

    Today’s 12z run (available around mid-day today) will be the first run with the new changes.

    Regards,

    Andrew Revering
    Convective Development, Inc.
    dba F5Weather
    http://www.f5weather.com/

  8. Should we be concerned about freezing rain or slippery road conditions between now and Friday inside 128?

    Thanks.

    1. I don’t think so. I think that temps will mainly be above freezing and there
      won’t be all that much precipitation, no matter what form it is in.

    2. Inside 128? Probably not. However, from 128 and points north and west, my forecasts early this morning indicated that in addition to some snow or freezing drizzle Thanksgiving morning, we needed to keep an eye on Thanksgiving evening. With some rain during the day, and temperatures dropping back close to freezing in the evening, it wouldn’t take much for some of the roads to ice up, especially bridges and overpasses. Ground temps still being fairly mild will help with most roads.

  9. Thanks TK.
    Minor system Thanksgiving Day for the morning but just enough for it to be slippery.
    I feel bad I missed out on the elevation snow blitz that places north of me had. Just amazing how one part of town you had little and go up in elevation a whole different story. My grand total here 1.5 inches and the snow is melting.
    6z GFS for early December had a rainorama to start and changing to snow. Will see.

  10. Matt and others – like Dave, I also have a subscription to eurowx.com. If you are unsure whether you want to subscribe or not, they give you a free trial for 7 days. All you need to do is enter an email address in the top right of the home page: http://eurowx.com/

    As Dave said, if you are into watching the models, this is a bargain for $9.95. You can set up monthly payments with a Paypal account and cancel at any time. (I only subscribe for the winter months)

    1. Mark,

      I believe the proprietor has changed the trial a bit.
      They now require a credit card as too many people were
      signing up for the trial and then resigning up with another email account.

      They only charge the card IF one decides to stay on.

      I am not totally sure of the particulars.

      1. Paypal is very intuitive. You just sign up for an account and give them your CC info.

        I know it is only my opinion, but I do not ever use a debit card for online purchases. Unless I am very sure of the merchant, I only use my AMEX as they have the best fraud protection I have found, as well as a team that will go to bat for you if there is a dispute. PayPal is supposed to do this but pales in comparison to AMEX.

  11. How is Saturday looking on the south shore for rain? I have a roofer slated to do a project for me but not sure if the conditions will be favorable.

  12. Now for certain, it looks way too warm for ANY snow around these parts on Saturday.
    Probably too warm for most of NNE as well, save perhaps the East slopes of the Whites
    and Western/Nw Maine.

  13. It certainly looks that as we head to the end of this month and into December, there should be robust troughing over the west-central US, which will favor an active storm track. However, that trough placement means the big storms should mainly be a parade of Lakes Cutters. Snow opportunities for the upper Midwest, some severe weather potential for the Southeast, and mostly rain showers for the Northeast. This is in agreement with most of the discussion I’ve seen elsewhere. Opportunities for bigger storms around here may be more contingent on blocking and getting opportunities for rapid offshore redevelopments. Something like what is trying to, but probably will not, occur for this weekend.

    1. The 12z CMC illustrates this pretty well. Including the system impacting the central US right now, which will moreso just die as it hits the Lakes, I count four Lakes Cutters in a row in just a 10 day span on that run. GFS is similar. Sorry, JPDave!

      Like I said before though, better to get them out of the way now… that mean trough placement will hold for a couple weeks, but we’ll see more shifting before the real winter begins. Hopefully it is replaced with something better later next month.

      2. If we had some cold air around, at least we could pick up
        “some” front end snow, depending. But alas, not even that
        is in the cards. I fear the whole damn Winter will be like that.

      3. The Winter of 68-69 featured this kind of pattern all the way through to Early February. (However, it was colder with some
        front end snows) Then in February the mean trough shifted eastward and Wham! 2 huge snow storms in Feb and a middling storm in early March and then that was it. The 2nd Feb storm yielded 26+ inches for Boston. Where I lived in Millis, both Feb storms were 24+ inches and the March one was about 6 inches. 😀

        I could live with something like that IF I must. But I fear that
        NOT even something like this will set up and IF so, on a much smaller scale like 2 6 inch storms and a 2-4 inch job or some such good for nothing crap.

  14. I’d just as soon see the cutters and inside runners. We get some rain and I don’t have to shovel and kill my back.

    1. Complaining about the lack of snow through early December is the same as complaining that the Pats will go winless for the entire season because they don’t score in the 1st half of the 1st game of the season. There is a LONG way to go.

      On January 23, 2015, Boston’s total snowfall the entire season stood at 5.5″. How’d that season end?

      1. SAK, understood. However, you have to learn to deal with us.
        This is how we operate. 😀 Yes there is plenty of time, but that doesn’t mean we can’t complain about what is going on presently.

        I HATE lakes cutters whether they come in October, November or
        March, April and all months in between. Outside of those months, I could care.

        Unfortunately, I am one of those crazies who really likes snow.
        The more, the better. I was in my glory 2 years ago. Absolutely loved it (once it got going that is)

        1. And I’m not one, for the record. I wouldn’t care if I ever saw another flake in my entire life. To me it’s good for nothing.

          1. No. A snow weenie is one who looks for snow around every corner and is P.O.’ed when a modeled storm 10-15 days out that’s progged to dump 2 feet doesn’t pan out. That’s a snow weenie. I’d say on this blog JPDave is the biggest weenie. Mark would be in the weenie camp. So would JJ. Bout 75% of weather blog folks (not just this blog) fall into some sort of snow weenie camp for a variety of reason. Around here, the met types and hobiest like it because it’s about the most exiticing this we get and it’s something to track. We don’t get severe, hurricanes, etc, so the winter season is the most xiciting season to track weather around here.
            For me, I’ve never liked it. I get clostotrophobic very easily. All that white covering everything just makes me unsettled. Removal is costly and hurts my back. The damage big storms cause is costly, the time any money lost to it is ridiculously high, and plus I hate cold weather. So no, I have no use for it whatsoever. So I’m a snow wimp or more appropriate for a weather blog, I’m what’s known as a warminista.

            1. I’d prefer the term “snow enthusiast”.
              I think that the term weenie is way too derogatory and frankly I don’t like being called that at all.

              If you would like to say that I am the biggest “Snow Enthusiast” on the blog than I Welcome it, because it is the truth.

                1. Lighten up Francis. It’s not a derogatory term at all. Really more of a term of endearment if anything. Read AmericanWx and you’ll see. All the mets use the term too. Fisher uses it in his blog from time to time. But if you prefer enthusiasts, that’s fine. No worries.

  19. JP Dave, regarding your rain gauge does this mean that you will still have to measure snow with a yardstick like the rest of us? Are there gauges with a heat source that can melt any frozen precip? Just curious.

    1. Yes, I’ll have to measure snow with my trusty yardstick.

      There are some rain gauges that supply heat to melt any frozen precipitation.
      I do not believe that mine is one of them as it is battery operated. I don’t think
      enough heat could be generated. Also, independent of that, the gauge
      is not set up for measuring snow in any way shape or form. 😀

      1. Tom according to Harvey if it comes early enough it is indeed not out of the question to have a minor coating if it makes it in and the timing is right .

        1. I saw him as well. Still think the coatings would be north and west of Boston. Wind should be light off the ocean and with the incoming cloud cover tomorrow night, I think it will be in the mid-upper 30s in Boston Thanksgiving morning. Now, get out to the 495 belt and maybe there’s a chance of a coating.

        2. Just watched Bernie’s video and he said; Boston getting a dusting to a few is not out of the question, but he’s just not sure.

  21. there is a humongous difference between the regular 32KM Nam and the other 2, 12KM and 4KM NAMs for the 18Z run. I can’t even fathom such a difference.

    Here is the 32KM Nam at 39 hours

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2016112218/nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_13.png

    And the 12KM NAM at 39 hours (4KM not out quite as far, but is very similar to 12KM)

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016112218/namconus_ref_frzn_us_37.png

    1. Lol
      No offense. I couldn’t resist. Keep looking for those storms, it gives me something to read 😉

  24. Oh, JPDave,
    My Accurite bridge stopped working. I’ve tried unplugging it, etc etc, I still can’t get it to blink correctly. If I reset it with the button on the bottom, you think that will do it? I think if I do that, I’ll lose all my data.

    1. Blackstone,

      That is exactly what happened to mine.

      I worked with their customer service and they ended up sending
      me a brand new smart hub which works perfectly. There is a really
      nice mobile app that goes with it as well. It is because they went through
      a major upgrade and many of the old Internet Bridges stopped working.

      Here is the customer service agent with whom I worked.

      Victoria Schwartz
      vschwartz@chaney-inst.com

      yes it appears AcuRite has their own Vicki

      She will want to know you internet set up and the mac ID of your bridge.

      Good luck

    2. hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

      Only on WHW can you take someone down one second, ask that person for help the next and get an answer.

      Darned if that is not the definition of family. I LOVE it!

  25. TK – did you intend to close responses for the snow contest page?

    If you will all bear or is it bare with me, I’m going to give Dave’s suggestion a try and see if it will work to use imgur to post a screen shot of the spreadsheet.

    http://i.imgur.com/SzfnGFB.gif

    1. Would someone be so kind as to let me know if they can see the document?

      How does everyone prefer it to be ordered? Alphabetically by name, ascending according to Boston??

          1. Thank you sir. I figured bare bone was best and like that it it is all visible. I thought I had trouble with imgur last time I tried to use it. It is pie simple so suspect it was an issue with my old computer. Now I can link pictures here. Be scared folks……be very scared!!!

        2. I did click my link but with some programs if the document resides on your computer you can see it while others cannot

          Please everyone make sure I got your numbers right

  26. According to the Urban Dictionary…..

    “Weather Weenie” = A weather enthusiast who gets excited by extreme weather, but who has little or no knowledge of the science of meteorology.

    I was not originally offended by Blackstone’s comments above, but now I am 🙂

        1. Wait …not a weather wimp? And I say that with the utmost respect. Blackstone classified a wimp as one who does not like snow

          I’m still having trouble with this. Grouping folks makes me squirm. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

            1. Love that Mac was one too! So based on the definitions provided I believe I am technically a weather wimp weenie- works for me! Much better alliteration than my normal self-described snowaphobic!

    1. Judah will be issuing his forecast with Harvey tonight on news center 5 the best news station on Air and best tv met. It will be on the 11:00 broadcast.

  28. Cohen thinks Boston Boston is in for this winter 75 inches with frequent cold air. Do I smell an old fashioned winter in the cards , that will be good for you snow lovers out there. I hate winter .

    1. I actually thought I heard 70 inches but what’s 5 inches among friends?

      Yup more in line wiht my predictions.

      you what this tells me? NO ONE knows for sure.

      Look at some PRos totals for Boston (From memory)

      TK 33.5 inches
      JMA 37 inches
      Channel 4 55 inches
      SAK 56 inches
      Channel 5 70 inches

      Now this is the professionals and there is a lot of variability there. 😀

  29. What I’m more concerned with is tomorrow regarding the dusting we could see in Boston. I’m sure Tk will explain.

    1. models are backing off. We shall see.
      12z runs should have it nailed down. snow, if any “should” be confined to
      areas North and West of Boston. Down your way you should be ok. We shall see.

      1. As with all snow events it’s Boston I’m concerned with around the Fenway area. Remember 1/2 inch would get us in for salting

        1. I don’t think that happens John. If it does, it will be
          in the Worcester Hills and the Berks. Just my humble
          opinion. Again, will re-evaluate after the 12Z runs. 😀

  30. Good morning all. Where are we submitting our snow total guesses? Been busy and must have missed that conversation.

        1. Got it! Thanks JPD. Not sure why I am so concerned about submitting guesses that surely won’t come close to reality. 🙂 But I hate to miss a good contest.

            1. Hmm, that doesn’t seem right.
              I believe TK put a deadline of 11/30.

              When Tk is available, I am certain he will address this. 😀

  31. Re: Tomorrow

    The 12Z NAMs show snow in the area for most of tomorrow, HOWEVER, the snowfall
    accumulation maps show ZILCH unit over the MA/NH/VT borders except for the Berks.

    So it looks like snow “may” be in the air, but not accumulating due to:

    Surface temps above freezing
    Warm Ground
    Lake of enough intensity

    FWIW

    The 0Z Euro keeps most of precip what little there is to the North
    Ditto 6Z GFS

  32. In case anyone missed it, Last night on the 11PM broadcast Harvey warned
    of a possible sneaky snow event Late Saturday night/Sunday morning from a developing
    off shore system and cold air moving back into the region. He did say it was a long shot, but something worth watching. It is more likely to stay too far off shore.

    The 6Z GFS shows it, but doesn’t quite get it in here enough. Still 3, 3 1/2 days out, so
    this could change. Keep an eye on it.

  35. Early reports are that Gronk will miss this sunday’s game against the Jets. I said it the day after the injury and I’ll say it again, it’s more severe than what is being reported. Ironically, the earliest report of a punctured lung (which was later poo pooed and reported as just a minor “chest injury”) may be the right one after all. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if they keep him out for another couple to even a few games given the history with his injuries and timetable for return which has been far from transparent, on both sides.

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