Friday Forecast

94 Comments

7:35AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 3-7)
Surge 1 of much colder air arrived during Thursday and remains in place today. The powerful winds of Thursday have diminished to more typical winter winds although some stronger gusts will continue today. Arctic cold takes hold tonight and Saturday and the leading edge of this air mass may result in some snow showers/squalls across the region this evening. A few isolated snow showers may follow that up as the second surge of cold moves in. Saturday will feature cold that will challenge some record low, and may also challenge some record low maximum temperatures. Boston’s record lowest high temperature for March 4 is 21 and it may struggle to reach or surpass this. The cold eases slightly on Sunday with less wind though it will still be quite cold to start with a slightly more moderate finish to the day. A warm front approaches Monday with clouds increasing, and this should lead to a much warmer day Tuesday with a few rain showers possible.
TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 30-38. Wind NW 5-15 MPH gusting around 25 MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered snow showers and a risk of heavier snow squalls. Any of these can briefly reduce visibility to very low or nearly zero, and cause a quick coating of snow resulting in slippery travel. Lows 8-15. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chills fall below zero.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy with isolated snow showers morning. Sunny afternoon. Highs 18-25. Wind NW 15-30 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chills below zero at times.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 5-15, coldest interior areas. Wind N 5-15 MPH. Wind chill near zero.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Lows 23-30. Highs 37-44.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 33-40. Highs 48-55.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 8-12)
Mild start to the period then colder again. Mainly dry, then a storm threat later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 13-17)
Up and down temps but averaging on the colder side of normal with a couple periods of precipitation possible.

94 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  2. Thank you TK! Special Olympics is hosting a Polar Plunge fundraiser at Nantasket Beach tomorrow. Feel bad for those folks!

  3. It appears that Danielle Niles is “expecting”. 😉

    This may be old news but I just noticed it watching her newscast yesterday morning. Barry is on duty this morning.

  5. Thank you, TK.

    If indeed tomorrow Boston sets a cold record, how often has Boston set records, both warmth and cold, in the same week?

    1. This is what is out there now just East of Buffalo. Of course it is very difficult to
      say how much is from the Front and trough and how much is from Lake
      Effect????

      But it looks impressive

      https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BUF&brand=wui&num=10&delay=25&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=400&centery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=1&lightning=Hide&smooth=0&rand=24809269&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

  9. Thanks TK.

    Matt Noyes’ Twitter feed is a great read this morning. Talks about two things: the snow squall potential for later today, as well as some climatic perspective on the lack of cold this winter and over the past few decades.

    1. Thank y0u. Just took a look. Very interesting.

      He’s talking about THUNDER SNOW.

      If so, it would be the 3rd time this Winter.

    2. Thanks, WxWatcher.

      While I haven’t rigorously analyzed data from the past few decades, I am unsure about whether there’s been a mild winter trend in Boston. 2015 featured the snow blitz, but also a sustained period of cold; 2013 also featured quite a bit of snow, though less cold; 2011 was snowy and featured a sustained period of cold; lots of oscillations as I remember from 2005 through 2010, from very cold to mild with quite a number of snowstorms; and as I recall 2003 and 2004 were very cold throughout the month of January and had several major snowstorms in February (notably, 2003). I’d say the late 1990s and early 2000s were mostly mild, but that followed some very cold and snowy winters, including 1993-1994 and 1995-1996.

      1. Yes, I am well aware. My point was this is “just” north of
        the desert in Arizona, a mere 2 hours drive North of Phoenix
        and it looks like a Winter Wonder land. They average 260 inches
        per year. Their current base is 106 inches. It amazes me every time I look at it.

        I have to visit there at some point.

  12. If we get those widespread snow squalls, watch this blog suddenly light up like a Christmas tree (as Jimmy would say). 🙂

  14. Eric Fisher‏Verified account @ericfisher 3h3 hours ago

    Snow squalls could be pretty vicious this evening and can be extremely tracherous for travel. Brief whiteouts expected! Stay alert.

  16. One of the higher potentials for potent squalls in SOME areas that I have seen in a while.

    Remember, “some” does not mean “all”. So if you miss a squall, it’s not a busted forecast.

  20. Those towns that get hit look to have quite a snow squall.
    One thing we all won’t miss out on is a day that will feel like January tomorrow.

  21. The highest chance for any lightning in the squalls will be in southeastern NH and southern Maine early tonight. Small scale inverted trough in the area.

  24. Watched the squalls pass through Schenectady and Albany on web cams.

    They seemed to last 1/2 to 3/4 hour and dropped a healthy coating to perhaps 1/2
    inch or so.

    Very difficult to tell from a web cam, but that’s about what it looked like to me.

    Pretty intense for a while.

  30. Question on Snow Squalls:

    Given the following:

    1. No Sun and day time heating to help fuel convection.
    2. Temperature has fallen back, so it is colder and less contrast.
    3. The dew point is 4

    What is the effect of the above on the snow squalls?
    No effect?
    Some minor effect weakening them some?
    Cause them to go Poof?

    OR are the dynamics in place just so dominate, that the intensity will be maintained
    right to the coast and beyond?

    Thank you.

      1. NWS just changed the mode of the radar to less sensitive.
        \
        The snow squall seems a bit more instense, however the band
        is now less wide. Could be the radar sensitivity?

        https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.2391304347826087&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=504.54545454545473&centery=361.27272727272725&transx=104.54545454545473&transy=121.27272727272725&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=Hide&smooth=0&rand=24809771&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

    2. 1. No effect in this case.
      2. No effect in this case.
      3. May have eaten a little of the snow on the way down but hardly noticeable.

      1. Thank you, however, I did notice the band getting narrower.
        We were out in Dedham when it came through like a WIMP!
        Barely a snow flurry. When we got home we could see there
        was something here because there was a light coating on everything, but not much.

        All-in-all a WIMPORAMA around these parts. 😀

  35. Well, this squall coming through finally means business. This is a good one.
    Strongest I have ever seen? Nope, but it will do. 😀

  37. Still snowing here, but much lighter intensity. It’s about to wrap up.
    This one put down a very healthy coating to perhaps 1/4 inch or so, perhaps even a bit
    more. This is what I expected from the 1st batch. No so. But this one delivered. 😀

  38. TK – How many realistic snow opportunities in store for us this month?

    At least one more?…two?…three?

  40. OMG!!!

    Has anyone looked at the latest EURO!*@#(*!()@*#(*!)(@#*)!(*@(*(*!)!@#(*

    Still has something for the 11th, like a couple of inches or so and then
    UNLOADS on the 13th with a MEGA BOMB!!! Dumping 30+ inches on us!!!

    Of course at this distance, likely to be pure fantasy, but Holy Crap Batman!!!!!

    I’ll post the run totals for snow (With it still snowing at the end) and a surface map:

    http://imgur.com/a/nWoev

        1. That’s the rumor.

          But, no matter how good the model is, a slight error in initialization propagated forward 9 or 10 days can result in a HUGE error.

          So, we’ll wait and see.

          Let’s start by seeing IF it’s still there on today’s 12Z run. 😀

        2. euro has recently been over doing amounts. i think we see 2 or 3 shots of winter precip mid to late month

  42. Thank goodness the models haven’t been reliable most winter after day 3. 🙂 🙂

    Gracious, if the 00z runs verified, that would be like another 3 snow days to make up in June.

    1. HIGHLY unlikely to verify, but we always have to hang a “What If” out there.

      Now, I am dying to see the 12Z run.

      What is the probability it is still there? 0? .25? .5? .75? 1? 😀 😀 😀

      I’m going with 0

      1. Oh, and here is where TK or SAK or JMA comes in with
        an announcement that the EURO had initialization issues
        with last night’s run. 😀

      2. Big features, I’d say high. Big = cold eastern Canada and some kind of low pressure area.

        Exact same placement of highs and lows, 40%. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  44. just a continuation of a cruddy week. Long time family friend passed late last night because of terminal cancer…two hours after my dad saw him. He was a high school of my dad’s. What makes it even harder is that this is the same time in which my grandmother passed with brain cancer. Just a cruddy week. My plan is to bring my dad out skiing to get his mind and my mind off of it.

  47. March 13 give or take was (and still may be) called the “storm of the century” as I recall. 1993?? There was a foot on March 13 1984. I seem to think there were other storms around that time. Maybe not. We have February 9, December 9 as active storm times. I’ll have to see about March 13

    1. must be crap loads of weather, because that is one looooooooong update. D:
      No doubt you were called away by/for something.

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