Monday Forecast

101 Comments

7:31AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 8-12)
A weak storm system will pass north of the region today and drag a cold front through the region from west to east this evening, producing a period of snow (mix/rain closer to coast and southeastern areas). Dry and breezy weather arrives behind it Tuesday, but with just average January cold which will feel mild compared to recent air. High pressure will be overhead Wednesday but warmer air arrives from the west, first aloft, then at the surface, and will result in a period of light rain/ice late Wednesday night and lots of clouds lingering Thursday. A wave of low pressure moving up along a front to the west and north of the region Friday will bring periods of rain but also the mildest air of the week.
TODAY: Cloudy. Highs 28-36. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Cloudy evening with a period of snow, accumulating under 1/2 inch, except rain southeastern MA and southern RI. Temperatures may rise slightly to 31-39 evening then lows 22-28 overnight. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Sunshine and passing clouds. Highs 32-38. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 10-15 interior valleys, 15-20 coast except 20-25 Cape Cod. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny morning. Increasing clouds afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: A pre-dawn period of light rain with some possible light icing interior areas. Mostly cloudy. Lows 26-33. Highs 36-44.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Temperatures rise to 42-49.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 13-17)
Unsettled and turning colder during this period with rain and some ice possible January 13 and can’t even rule out a quicker turn to colder and some snow involved, then watch for additional periods of mix/snow during the January 14-16 period before dry weather returns late in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 18-22)
Looking at another shot of cold air for the first part of this period then moderation but a quieter overall weather pattern.

101 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  4. Somehow yesterday’s summary was sitting on top of today’s. WordPress did that and also put a random link in the middle of the forecast. Both fixed.

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.

    We’re having a HEAT WAVE!!

    Does it ever feel nice today compared to over the weekend. 😀

  8. When the weather is quiet, so is the blog. Funny how that works.

    May I comment on people’s habits and/or stupidity.

    On Saturday afternoon, I had to pick up a few things at Whole Foods, Legacy Place
    Dedham. There are 3 entrances and exits there, the back entrance is in back of the
    ShowCase Cinemas, The main entrance is by whole foods, the AT&T store and Hooters AND there is a side entrance that goes by LL Bean and PF chang’s.

    This particular afternoon was extremely busy and there was at least a 15 min wait
    to exit via the main entrance/exit. I couldn’t believe the back up!! So After picking up a few items (Whole foods was not all that busy) I exited via the side entrance with
    ONLY 1 car in front of me. AMAZING what people do.

    End of my Monday Rant.

    1. Sheep mentality man. I see it all the time. Like two lanes going in the same direction and everyone is in the right lane while the left is more or less wide open. This is why people are so easy to scare over every weather event ha. Good for you.

      1. Yup, totally agree.
        Funny how people are.

        Of course I also have additional motivation as I completely
        LOATHE QUEUES of any kind for any purpose!!!!

        I can’t STAND WAITING for anything.

        Sorry, yet another rant.

    2. Legacy place is one of the worst places to go now. I avoid that place like the plague. When it first opened it was bearable, now, its a complete and utter bleep show no matter the day of the week or time of day.

    3. I laughed at your comment. I cannot count the times that the 14 items or less register at Hannaford has been 5-7 people deep and the regular registers have one person whose order is rung through partway. Yet people continue to go to te 14 items or less register.

      I’m not sure it is sheep mentality or just one thing you don’t have to think about too much in a world where everything requires a tremendous amount of brain power.

  9. From SAK:

    Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of……something.

    I find that to be refreshingly HONEST and quite Hilarious at the same time.
    I’d much rather that than an Emphatic 58 and rain. 😀

    FWIW, the 6Z GFS gets awfully close to bringing in the cold air fast enough.

    We shall see.

    However, the EURO still insists on warmth.

    1. We shall see about 50s. 40s for sure.
      re: Saturday
      Who knows. I’d wager we do NOT see 50s.

      We shall see.

      1. I remain in the over 50 camp….mostly because I am a contrarian but also because it is New England.

    1. I feel about Alabama probably the way the rest of the country feels about the Patriots ….. not again ….. go bull dogs !!

  15. 12z EURO definitely bridges high pressure and some cold air well to our north following an initial weak low passage at hr 96 to 120. First signs on the EURO of a transition towards a colder solution ???

        1. We are still in the mild sector. However, no longer is northern New England on Saturday and once you cross due north into southern Canada, it shows it to be very cold. Still would need more adjustments to make it cold for us, but against its recent projections, the 12z run is trending cooler.

          1. AS you can readily see with this link,
            the cold is NOT very far away and as Tom
            indicated and TK and SSK warned, with a slight change, it could get COLD here for Saturday.
            Time will tell, but CLEARLY this a HUGE
            shift from last night’s 0Z run.

  18. No question a big shift in the 12z Euro. Saturday low track is now basically right over NYC and SNE. Still keeps the bulk of the accumulating snows though confined to central and northern NY and northern VT, NH and ME. Euro is now father east than the 12z GFS which tracks the initial low over about Binghamton.

    1. Euro EPS mean is also farther east and close to the operational. Big change on that Euro run was the placement and strength of the high pressure to the north. There could be some serious cold air damming south into New England if this verifies. This indeed has ICE storm written all over it!

        1. An all-out ice storm in Foxboro could have a significant impact on the game. Not saying it will be an ice storm, but I believe ice is more impactful than snow.

          1. As modeled to this point, precip is done by game time, however, TK has suggested that there
            could be additional precip.

            All-in-All could be an interesting day.

    2. Oh yes. I think tough to get the whole column cold enough for snow, but do have concern that the lower levels will trend colder for ice.

      1. Even TK has not ruled that out, however, it appears that
        ice would be the predominate concern.

        We shall see.

        Will be watching future runs with great interest.

    3. I would adore snow on Saturday. It would mean we have the chance for another patriots snow bowl.

      2. And it would be same date and day of the week as the Raiders “tuck rule” game I believe.

      3. Ahhh Dr Stupid…your royalness…..I would also love that. The snowbowl was hands down Macs favorite pats game. It took us forever to find a recording of it. Back in the day, it was not easy. When my son found one for Christmas a couple of years later, you’d have thought he’d been given gold.

  22. As you have all seen the idea of colder Saturday looks stronger. I suppose we can hope this trend continues and what lies in store is a colder solution than today, with snow, because otherwise interior southern and central New England runs the risk of a moderate to major ice storm.

  24. Started as a mix where I am now snowing at good clip.
    Hoping Saturday trends colder so it is snow not ice.

  25. It felt downright warm to me outside today, though we only just made it to seasonable levels. Little bit of melting but not a whole lot. Same sort of deal the next two days. Then the meltdown Thursday-Friday. Keeping an eye on Saturday. ECMWF has corrected, as we expected. However, I’m not sure it will shift too much further east. I think mainly rain for the coastal plain Saturday, but with a snow/ice risk inland which should be watched closely for the potential of a major ice storm. The low should track over or just west of us. Will also be watching the flooding potential, given most models showing 2″+ QPF Thursday-Saturday and a deep snow pack. Not overly concerned about that at this point.

    Beyond then, a trough lingers to our west. Models not really showing anything else coming out of it, but as TK has hinted at in his forecast I think we should watch 1/14-1/16 for an additional system, with that one more likely to be snow.

    1. I think the ECMWF’s forecast is decent through Sunday 1-14, and then crap after it. A big odd-looking jump in the upper pattern between 12z 1-14 & 12z 1-15 tells me the run is having trouble figuring out the timing of energy from a Pacific system and a polar jet and how they will interact. Tossed the run beyond Sunday.

  27. Thank you, TK. Also, thanks for keeping us informed about the Saturday storm.

    I have an odd question: Why is the South Pole colder than the North Pole. Even in the southern hemisphere’s summer (right now) I noticed that the South Pole is generally colder than the North Pole.

    1. Because it’s landmass and even though it’s covered with ice it extends much further form the pole than does the ice sheet near the North Pole, so relatively warmer ocean water mixes in there and leaves the North Pole less cold.

    2. Lots of things go into this
      1. Southpole (Antarctica is land covered by major glaciers the arctic is an ocean with several contenents surrounding it
      2. Sea ice is much more easily moved and allows the warmer water from underneath to be released.
      Sea ice on average is 1/8 -2/8 the thickness of the Antarctic (southpole) Ice.
      3. The winds around Antarctica is usually stronger and like we have a PV they have one down there as well which is typically stronger and keeps the coldest of temperatures from moving north from the south pole.

      Probably a lot more to it, but will let others way in.

          1. I know some people who spent time on the outskirts of the frozen continent doing ice sapling and looking at some extremely exotic species that only live under sea ice.

            1. Wow! That’s cool.

              There is an annual Antarctica marathon. Maybe some day I’ll sign up for that.

  29. The tv mets are now conceding the possibility of a colder scenario for Saturday…still not willing to pull the trigger just yet though.

    Dry and colder Sunday and beyond regardless.

    1. I am not convinced of simply dry weather Sunday and beyond – not with a mean trough just west of here.

      1. Wow i certainly wouldn’t want to mess with that trough, if you are saying its mean. Tss, tss

  30. For model watchers, the HRRRX or “parallel HRRR” is now on the Tropical Tidbits web page. It goes out to 36 hours and shows projected precipitation as it would appear on radar and surface pressure only.

  31. Daughter flies out of Boston at noon on Saturday. Wondering if the possibility of ice or snow comes later in the day or earlier.

    1. Boston will probably never end up with ice, or at least significant ice, and if they have any it should be much later.

  33. Light snow and nighttime sledding for kids on hill in back yard. Winter doesn’t get any better !!

    1. what do you use to get them, i had access earlier in the season but the site got rid of most of the euro stuff

    2. As TK said, the Euro looks like it doesn’t have a handle on the pattern after Sunday. Not to mention, the weeklies performance in week 3/4 has not been great the past few months. My guess is it will not play out as hideous as it looks now.

      1. And not all that far away from Boston as it covers a good portion of 128. Certainly the western sections of it. Yikes!!

  38. 0z GFS track has shifted southeast for the Saturday storm with the low now tracking directly over NYC/Hartford/Boston. Still a rain track for SNE with the mix line getting as far south as the MA/NH border.

  39. Both CMC and GFS are trying to spawn a coastal storm at 10 days out (around the 18th). Set up looks interesting around that time period on both models.

    2. Was watching TWC last night and the winter weather expert explained that the strong storm that clobbered us last Thursday, as it moved past us, had some effect in building a downstream ridge-trof set-up and that trof is the one that amplified significantly enough to produce this snow in the northwest Sahara desert.

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