Monday Forecast

295 Comments

7:25AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 19-23)
Dry and cold is the theme but enough evidence exists that the dry part will be interrupted by a swath of precipitation thrown into southeastern New England by the second member of a double-barrel low pressure area passing south of the region between late Tuesday and early Thursday. The timing on the precipitation, mainly snow, would be Wednesday, arriving during the day and departing during the night. At this time it looks more like a sideswipe but along with a healthy wind as there will be a strong high pressure area to the north, resulting in a significant pressure gradient between itself and the passing storm. This causes a concern for some coastal flooding at the high tide times early Wednesday and Thursday, as well as the one that comes between the two of those. Not expecting anything like the flooding of previous storms. Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 33-39. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 13-19. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 34-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy north. Mostly cloudy south. Lows 22-28. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts overnight.
WEDNESDAY: Partial sun northwest, cloudy with snow likely southeast including a small accumulation southern MA and RI with locally moderate amounts possible by evening. Highs 33-39. Wind NE 10-20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH northwestern areas, 15-30 MPH with gusts 35-45 MPH southeastern areas.
THURSDAY: Lingering snow showers Cape Cod otherwise mostly to partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 24-28)
Next storm threat late March 24 into March 25 with rain/mix/snow possible. Mainly dry March 26-28. Temperatures start the period below normal them moderate to near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 29-APRIL 2)
May start mild then a cooler trend comes back with a risk of some unsettled weather as well. Low confidence forecast.

295 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  2. Dammit. Was hoping for the first time since they started the framers might get a full work week in. This project will never get done ha. Must be easy to build in Arizona.

  3. Thank TK. Any early ideas on snow amounts out this way. Wednesday being the third in the month is the Dana group grief meeting. I couldn’t go last month because I didn’t want to share my germs and it snowed the month before so no one made it. Thank you.

    1. As far as Cindy’s map you would be in the 1-3 inch range for now. Your area is farthest away from the storm itself. Boston is in the 3-6 inch range.

  5. Good morning again and thank you TK.

    Waiting on 12Z runs to see if this will become more than a side swipe.

    We shall see soon enough.

  6. re-post

    Good morning.

    Well it now looks like a full-fledged “Nor’Easter” is pretty much off the table, however,
    A pretty healthy side swipe/graze may be in the cards. Believe it or not, but the Euro
    was the most robust. GFS and NAM have about 5 inches Kuchera for Boston. Euro has
    about 5 for Boston, but 6-8 just SW of the city. SREF has just over 5 inches for the City.

    Here is Euro Snow:

    https://imgur.com/a/fRXtD

  7. Thanks. Skiing Mt Bachelor with sons in Bend Or. Picture Perfect Conditions. What a beautiful part of the world.

    7th by my count 🙂

  8. It’s amazing how many interesting folks here there are who frequent the site. I’m just plain boring 😀

    By the way, I have a sneaking suspicion that this storm comes in hotter but not as hot as the previous winter storms.

    1. Hotter, meaning a little closer to the coast with more snow
      than currently advertised, but not as much as the last storm?

      OR

      Hotter, meaning the thermal profile is such that more rain would
      be introduced.

      I believe you mean the former and not the latter.

    1. Isn’t that rather warm for this time of year? I would guess 60s and 70s would
      be the norm???

      Lucky You. ENJOY!

      1. Yup—crazy in that they don’t officially open beaches with lifeguards until after Passover—but Passover can vary by as much as a full lunar month each year—so this year its the last week of March and next year its 2/3 of the way through April—but seasonally the norms are what they are in relation to the solar calendar. Also—many hotels don’t switch over from heat to A/C until after Passover either.

  12. JPDave,

    To address your question above: Hotter as in closer to the coast bringing in the more significant shield of precipitation very close to Boston. Yet, there will be a very sharp cut-off and gradient.

  13. 12Z NAM looks like upper flow lifts “just” far enough North to allow
    the follow-up system to come close enough. Waiting………..

  15. NAM showing a BIG HIT for Wednesday in this on again/off again Saga.
    Hmmm have we seen this before this Winter?

    Any how, snow maps coming when ready.

    Looks to be near a foot over most of SNE.

    1. Same damn pattern…it’s going to miss turns into a graze turns into a big hit. I refuse to believe any more miss predictions ha.

      1. Been pretty crazy this year, that’s for sure.

        BUT, we have to see what the other models say.
        Watch the GFS be a complete miss.

        I WANT to see the EURO. Last’s night’s Euro was approaching
        a big hit. If it moves just a bit, we are in for it.

        1. Hope it misses myself…felt pretty good about it the other day when TK said he was highly confident on this forecast.

    1. 9Z SREF has the Ensemble Mean Snow for Boston at: 6.04 inches.
      With the high member at 15.77 inches
      and low member at: 0.00
      Not exactly a reliable spread there.
      I’ll bet there will be a significant bump with the 15Z run. 😀

  17. I just think the atmosphere is locked in right now. We see it happen all the time in all patterns, whether dry, cold/warm, or snowy. To me this looks like a pretty good setup for snow in SNE.

    What falls versus what accumulates is a whole separate issue, but I think the shovels and plows will be out for many Wednesday night.

    1. What accumulates is the big question.
      One thing for sure, it has been COLD, but there is no denying
      that sun angle. With the cold and IF there is enough intensity, I think
      it will accumulate. IF that intensity drops off at all, then it will be
      like shoveling S**T against the tide to accumulate. I guess we won’t
      know for sure until it is happening, if it happens.

      Just based on what I have seen, I think an early, early estimate, taking into account the sun angle, would be something in the order of 4-8 inches.

      Up next: GFS

  18. Snow or no snow.
    To me the biggest story here is the temperature. It’s almost 11 am, mid September sun angle, and it’s still in the mid 20’s.

    1. Yup, tis damn cold.

      13.9 at my house yesterday and 15.7 this morning for
      the 18th and 19th of March.

    2. 13 at my house yesterday morning and 18 this morning. Still have 100% snow cover in my yard, up to 10″ in the back where it is shaded. And I didn’t get nearly as much snow last week as most of the rest of you. Not much melting going on!

  19. Philip, thank you for your answer above. Arod, you are interesting. MassBay, hope your time is special.

    A tad nippy. Down to 30s at night again in Atlanta this week.

    That puff on the table on my deck is not going anywhere fast. It has barely budged since the first day when half of it melted.

    And as I think of it, Arod, the most exciting thing in my life is watching the snow melt….that and my now six year old granddaughter’s birthday party yesterday where we were all asked to wear PJs. My favorite attire!

  21. The temperature is indeed the big story. Agree with Blackstone on this. It’s remarkably cold outside. Ice is forming again on the Esplanade Lagoon. Nothing has melted during the last two days, and that’s unusual in March. There’s even a little snow on some of the tree limbs in downtown Boston from a storm that hit us last Tuesday! The one thing I will say is that while March and September are 6 months apart (and therefore share similar sun angle and light), they’re worlds apart in terms of weather, at least around here. And most of the time weather in April and October is very, very different. I love October and I mostly dislike April. I’m a broken record when I say this, but spring in New England tends to be an extension of winter with some teases thrown in. I concur with Vicki that there are visible signs of spring everywhere. However, I don’t feel it as much as I see it.

  22. Now that the 100th storm of this month is looking a little more real, I am inclined to scream “uncle!”

  23. Note to self: a public declaration of higg confidence is the equivalent of pressing the self destruct button on a forecast. 😉

    1. Ha that wasn’t a dig at you. I literally meant I felt confident for a miss based on that but wouldn’t hold you or anyone to it that far out. I know how things change and who knows…maybe it will still miss.

        1. I have my auto correct disable for exactly that
          reason. Too many times it inserts a word I did not
          intend!

  24. All kidding aside, I am a teacher and plow for my town, the teacher hates snow days, but the plow side loves them. The last two storms, have been so drawn out, it is making for extremely long hours in the truck. We have one snow day left before we will have to hit Saturdays, If we get a foot that’s a two day cancellation. 🙁

  25. So far in the GFS run, the upper flow does not appear to be lifting Northward enough.\
    Another model discrepancy, but ahh, perhaps it still will.

      1. Just waiting for it to get far enough out.
        Kuchera 16 inches Central CT, but ony 6 inches Boston.
        Not precipitation type, but intensity issues.

  28. On the spring/warmer weather thing. Give it another month. If its still 26 degrees at noon the start of school vacation week one month from today, there will be some Tobin jumpers.
    Not saying it’ll be 60, but I bet it’s a sight warmer then at noon than it is today.

  30. Snow to water ratio on this probably 6:1 or 7:1 And anything daytime will have minimal pavement impact.

    Remember: Late March far different than mid winter.

  32. As suspected, latest guidance more amplified. Still not a lock by any means but still potential for at least moderate impact.

  33. And I believe WxWatcher, if proven correct, was the first to be concerned about this scenario yesterday.

    3. Well in TK’s defense…it’s not decided yet. Not looking great I admit, but you never know.

    1. I think we can discount the Canadian. It’s 12z ensembles are NW of the operational and more similar to the GFS.

  41. 12z GEFS supports the operational with a nice hit. Snowmap:

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/applications/core/interface/imageproxy/imageproxy.php?img=https://image.prntscr.com/image/essCiOATSYuEiK0fTITBww.png&key=645ae50154af254f7d686b70511e59132ab67833b5ec13abea30811d4d03bf9c

    Individual members…some juicier ones in there:

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/applications/core/interface/imageproxy/imageproxy.php?img=https://image.prntscr.com/image/sJkMS7PUQTWgdZRjI1FmFw.png&key=f8f50e0eb99bd60fafc89e0dedeb31a401f01ae66ae6da6d969c9af65dde9e0b

  42. GFS keeps it pretty cold right thru the end of the run with two more snow threats – one early to middle next week and another on April 1 ! Pattern seems locked for a bit longer.

  43. Euro looked like it was going to be a HAMMER job, but yet it still
    squeaks out South and East. Waiting on qpf and snow maps to see how
    much it manages to lay down. First glance suggests a side swipe of some sort.

    1. Hmmm It somehow manages to slide East well South of us, but with
      an extensive precipitation shield well to the North encompassing ALL
      of SNE.

  44. Jim Coleman tweet

    12z Euro is in and continues to show a significant snowstorm Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. Heavy wet snow and strong winds could lead to more widespread power outages across Eastern MA.

    1. Indeed. Just waiting for final snow and qpf maps.
      AS of 0Z Thur or 8PM Wed. alread 4 or 5 inches in the city with
      way more to the West and SW.

            2. sorry, I read that wrong, based on this model its earlier so more Wedneday afternoon but accumulation should be limited til late afternoon/evening

  47. There are definitely questions to be had about accumulation on this storm. Timing of the heaviest precip will be important. Less accumulation daytime, more at night. Precip intensity will also be important; so far most guidance isn’t very enthusiastic about any really high snowfall rates. Tougher for lighter intensity snow to stick. As a rough guide, I would say assume 5:1 for ratios. So cut most of the standard 10:1 products in half. That can be refined as timing/intensity become more clear.

  48. I like 3-6 on existing snowcover for interior southeastern MA, under 3 everywhere else, with little or nothing from north central MA north and west. This will not be an impressive snowfall though the media is billing it as “end of the world, part 4”. Can’t help that stupidity myself so I’ll just do my thing instead.

    1. HAHA think it will trend more north though or no? I agree though…my lobby has a few TV’s up and it’s all weather every time I step out. Seems to be a lot of discussion about it – “Four in a row!”

      1. I have to be honest, the entire thing is literally pissing me off. Entertainment instead of information. People can disagree if they want but this is undermining what forecasters like SAK and myself do. Yes we can provide some entertainment within the information, like SAK excels at, but I totally disagree with doing it in the aim of hyping something for attention.

        1. Yeah I can imagine. I am not into weather and forecasting even remotely as much as you are. That being said, it drives me nuts too so I take my anger and multiply it exponentially to assume what you are feeling ha. I think they will label every storm from now until snow ends as a nor’easter just to say “we got X number of back to back to back storms…”

        2. I’m 100% with you on this.

          Looking forward to seeing how Eric
          presents this tonight. OH, perhaps it will be Harvey
          if the freaking basketball is on channel 4. Not waiting
          up to the end of a stupid basketball game.

    2. Sounds reasonable at this point.
      I told my wife at lunch that Eric would probably put out
      3-6 or 4-8 tonight.

      I would have been happy if you stated any of these:

      2-5
      3-6
      4-7
      4-8

      Anything above that might be a stretch.

      We’ll have to see what the intensity looks like and the timing
      of the heavier precip.

      If we assume 1 inch qpf. with a ratio of 7:1, then that is 7 inches.
      Cut it down for the sun angle, and we pretty much have your 3-6 inches.

      I “guess” there is a process to come up with those numbers. Eh? 😀 😀 😀

    3. I was just about to send a link to his tweet. I was surprised he went that high with his snow totals.

  51. Take Euro snow, shift it 5 to 10 miles south and east, and cut the amount in half. That’s basically my forecast.

  52. The 12z NAM and Euro are mighty cold from 850mb right down to the surface during the day Wednesday. In fact both models keep 2m temps in the 20’s in interior CT and west central MA during the daytime hours on Wednesday. Couple that with the heaviest slug of precip coming later PM/early evening when sun is less of a factor, I would not be surprised to see 6-10″ verify in interior CT and Worcester Co. MA westward. With the surface temps a bit warmer and precip not as intense in eastern MA/RI, I could see how more than 6″ would be a stretch.

  53. My early call would be 4-7 basically everywhere along and south of the Pike, less at the South Coast/Cape and less to the north. 5-10 seems a little high especially at this range.

  55. I mean, Bri Eggers has 6-10 all the way into Jaffrey, NH. If they get 6-10 there, someone west of Boston has to get 12+. I just don’t see that happening.

    1. I just saw the map. And Oh it’ll happen. I really wanted to go to the Dana meeting Wednesday night….pretty much guaranteed a good amount of snow. Oh well, next month for Dana. In the meantime, you guys are good with coaching….right?????

  56. Ryan Maue tweet. Ensembles are further west than op for sure.

    ECMWF ensembles arriving now (12z cycle begins at 3 pm EDT)
    Nor’easter Number 4 is going to put on quite a show Wed-Thurs from D.C. to NYC to Boston — as Spring starts with a snow storm.

        1. What sucks is the flu and everything else was on the decline at school now it’s back again with the cold and everyone back in and no fresh air. This winter is the party guest that can’t take a hint haha.

  58. There is something called “the ghost of forecast past” that plagues many a meteorologist. It’s a multi-level problem. It can take the form of feeling like if you under-forecast the previous event then you should forecast more in this one to avoid that from happening again. Problem is, usually when you do that you find that your actual feeling was correct and you get screwed again.

    Another trap many a forecaster falls into is feeling like “the last one did x, so this one will do x too”. Hardly ever the case.

    And still another: “The FU2 model was so perfect on the last storm it has to have this one right. I mean it’s been performing so great!” BZZZZZZZZZZZZZZT! Wish it was that easy but very often there will be no model that has a storm exactly right.

  59. Just got the winter storm watch alert on my phone from The Weather Channel — predicting 5-8 inches with an outside chance of as much as 11 inches. So hope they are wrong.

      1. While TK goes off on the idiots hyping the weather for entertainment value (and I agree 100 percent with him), even worse are the morons who have to rush to a store because we might get 6 inches of snow. I have never and will never understand how we became so dumb.

  60. I see a lot of forecast shaming directed at those calling for over 6″ of snow. To me, it’s just as bold at this time to forecast 5-10″ of snow as it is to forecast 3.” No different.

    2. I agree Ace, we need to stop shaming mets, because of a forecast they put out, if they are consistantly wrong, then the public or at least those with a brain, will not follow them and know better. Its the stupid people’s fault for believing them.

      1. Adding Matt that they have an obligation to report ahead. Because the general public does not hear the words potential or the ranges, that would not be the fault of the Mets. I am not a fan of the patch…so I do not go there. My responsibility….not theirs.

    3. I agree. I have wondered if I should step back from the blog until snow season ends. I fully understand that anyone has the right to shame and it is up to me to step back.

  61. Look at it from this perspective, if outlet X says “a foot” even if everyone else has 3” who’s going to get all the clicks……? What does the guy with the foot know that everyone else doesn’t ? It doesn’t really matter why you click as long as you do. That’s what drives it – really that simple.

  63. The thing about TV snow forecasts these days: they’re basically all the same. Any differences are usually more coincidence than anything else. No one is ever going to really stick their neck out and forecast something much different from the model consensus. Which is just as well, because it’s very hard to beat the model consensus. In this particular case I think there’s some human value to be added by lowering the model amounts somewhat to account for the ratios. But on a more existential level, it’s increasingly difficult, almost impossible, for an individual met or even a station of mets to distinguish themselves from others via their forecast accuracy. They have to find other ways. Either via personality or presentation. I’m glad I’m not a broadcast met.

    1. Sadly if this storm does happen and it’s big, NECN will be the ones who look like geniuses hyping this up several days ago ha.

  64. One thing I won’t do is shame a legitimate forecast. I will shame a poor practice if I feel it’s needed. I have always done it that way. Ain’t gonna change. As SAK says, we call ’em as we see ’em. Nobody has to agree with it, but it’s me – take it or leave it. 😀

    I’m expecting NWS to drastically increase their snow amounts any moment based on the WSW. Their old snow map doesn’t even come close to matching that.

    1. Why shame any? I am trying to understand the purpose. How does it benefit Whw? The Mets from all three of our main media sources try very hard to do their best. If they make an error, they learn from it. If you were to forecast in error, is Jump all over anyone trying to shame you. But then I have never ever ever felt shaming is appropriate. We all have faults.

  67. 1) NWS forgot something. Timing & ratio.

    2) Right after they issue that NAM comes out at 18z with lower snow totals. 😉

          1. You didn’t mention K. But I still don’t trust it.

            Going with 6 or less everywhere, 3 or less most places. Maybe I’ll get blown out of the water, maybe not. 🙂

    2. Was just going to mention that. NAM now looks more in line
      with the GFS. Almost a border line side swipe and not a direct hit.
      In fact, the whole system looks funky, totally funky.

      NOT IMPRESSED at all.

      We shall see what the 0Z runs show.

      Perhaps I am just more tuned in these days, but I can’t ever remember
      such a back and forth, yes/no maybe, nah, wait a minute, yes, not, maybe…..
      with the models.

      After seeing this morning’s runs, I would have sworn we were in for it.
      Now, I have been given pause. Waiting on 0Z suite.

      Time to break out the rocking chair.

          1. Yes indeed you have. I’ve chatting about this with some colleagues. It’s frustrating.

  68. We need a Dr. S “around the dial” pic soon. Channel 5 seems to be the most conservative with 3-6.

  69. What people have in mind is the last storm with those tremendous synoptic snow bands. Those were about top of the scale intensity for storms around here. On par with March 29 1984 and other storms that have produced big snow during late winter or early spring daylight hours.

    This system will not have that. Granted some of the snow comes at night but it’s just not going to be that intense, rate-wise.

    1. That’s my concern on going for any higher numbers. 18z NAM and hi-res NAM illustrate it really well. A wide region of light to moderate snow with very little heavy stuff. No synoptic bands. Occurring mostly during the day, that’s not going to accumulate efficiently at all.

  72. 48 hrs to go … lets see what tomorrow’s runs show.

    PDS (Particularly dangerous situation) issued for parts of the south for tornadoes.

    1. Look at that slug to our SW. It never translates to our area.
      It’s like the system falls apart.

      Either this run is correct and this is a loser system OR perhaps something
      went awry with this run?

      I dunno.

      Onto the GFS

    2. The NAM seems to have a comparable track and strength low, it just keeps the heaviest precip mostly just south of New England, with a late heavier burst in SE Mass late.

  75. In the old days this would be a system I’d be psyched for only to be disappointed it doesn’t turn out to be a big storm. These days, I know better. This is going to be the one that disappoints, in terms of snow amounts.

  76. Ch. 5 has a swath of 5-8″ with Mark getting 8″+ 🙂

    If Harvey is on vacation, he picked the worst possible time.

    Kelly Ann C. is on duty tonight.

    1. Harvey deserves a break. This storm won’t warrant extra staffing. Not like the last 3.

    1. Funny how it started out as the NAM being the highest snow forecast and then that’s when everyone jumped on the bandwagon. Have to be really careful in March. The last storm we had was an anomaly.

      1. I am going to go out on a limb and say that the 0z NAM is going to look nothing like the 18z. Every run is different than the next.

        It’s all about getting the heavier precip up here and having it happen later in the PM when sun angle is lower. 2m temps look good. If that happens, I can see 6″+

    1. Applying the correct ratio to the RGEM it would yield 3 or less for most areas with a 3-6 bullseye somewhere in SE MA.

    1. That’s like the dad that takes over for mom at the door on Halloween and gives half the bowl of candy to one kid…

          1. Back in the day, sure why not ha. We left a bowl outside once and came back shortly after and it was wiped. Bet some kid just ignored the sign and took the whole thing. #respect

  81. If possible, I could really use a start time and end time regardless of how strong the event is. Any help would be appreciated.

    2. Wednesday afternoon to Thursday morning, should be fine Wednesday afternoon as it looks right now.

  83. “mix-over” .. No, that’s not a meteorological term. Heard that one on air earlier.

    “The track of the storm will depend on what we see here” was another. No, you meant to say “What we see here depends on the track of the storm.” My goodness.

  85. Really curious to see how this ends up. My sense on this blog is it won’t be a lot…media has mostly 6-10″ for all of eastern MA. It’s a shootout…

  87. 18z GFS was a tick further southeast and had less QPF than 12z. Looked like 3-6″ still south of the Pike with highest amounts in eastern CT.

    18z ICON was almost a complete miss.

    Not great trends on the 18z runs if you want snow.

  88. Jesus fox 25 has 8-12,down here Come on will ya. You are not welcome you’re time is up it’s spring

  89. I could use a break. I pulled my tricep and my rotator cuff is messed up after shoveling and using the snowblower storm before last. If it snows a lot, I’ll have to hire it done.
    I’m tired of this crap.

    1. Try building a house in it…crew hasn’t worked a full week since they started framing. Looked like this was finally the week to get stuff done. Paying a ton for a wood frame that is perpetually wet and never dries out.

        1. Still snowing most of SNE at daybreak Thursday. Plenty of accumulation after dark Wed night/Thurs AM. Big uptick in snow totals everywhere on this run.

  96. So is the consensus on this board 3-6″ or less for Boston?

    San Francisco friends are in town and we’re meeting up for dinner Wednesday evening.

    1. Should be ramping up to the height of the storm at that point Wed evening.

      The 3-6″ range is conservative if you believe the 0z NAM, 3km NAM, and GFS which would support higher amounts.

  97. I am not sure if I can share a name, but a storm chaser friend of Tks has been in touch with me for well over an hour on FB as the tornado warnings and tornados headed to where Mac’s sister lives just south of Atlanta. The danger ended literally just before it reached my SIL….just stopped. I’d say an angel above had a lot to do with that. But I’d also say an angel on earth walked me through what was happening so I could relay the information to my SIL.

    1. Midday to early PM Wednesday per GFS and NAM though my guess would be not much accumulation on treated roads/runways before flight time.

  106. Anyone have the timing on this? To my knowledge this was late Wednesday into early AM Thursday and yet people at work saying they heard on the radio this morning it would be “all day Wednesday”. Nothing changed that drastically right?

          1. Yeah say heavy snow at 8am tomorrow ha…don’t need schools closing based on this info you

  107. 6Z gfs kuchera

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018032006/072/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    6z nam kuchera

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018032006/072/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    6z 3km nam kuchera

    http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2018032006/060/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    btvt 4km qpf

    https://imgur.com/a/Nbv01

    shows 1.25 inch for boston

    ukmet accumlation mm (down)

    http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_qc_00/accum/PA_000-072_0000.gif

    .6 to .8 qpf

    all in all, all models are DOWN on their snowfall.

    If one likes snow the most disconcerting ones are The Euro and even more so
    the 3km NAM which shows almost nothing. in fact with the amount it is showing,
    we’d barely end up with anything on the ground.

    What a yo-yo freaking event. Can’t stand this back and forth.
    If it is a miss fine, but don’t miss, hit, miss, hit, miss, hit, miss, hit, miss, hit.

    Right now, I don’t give a flying crap what is does.

    Sure looks like most snow maps are way over inflated.

    1. Yeah it’s bad. When I check on here suddenly it’s off again…I check a few hours later and the snow is back on big time…check again and amounts are down…not sure what to believe.

      1. They updated it shortly after 5 AM today.

        Not sure what they are basing it on, but unlike last time,
        sref ensemble has remained pretty consistent around 6 inches or so. Are the y basing this map solely on the regular nam?????
        If, so very sad indeed.

        last nights WRF mesos indicated a pretty big hit???

        I dunno. I just think that map is way over done.

          1. impossible to tell. But I’d lean towards a euro/3km nam blend and say something like 2-4 inches subject to change with additional data as available. I’m NOT liking this for a big snow event at all. Could I be wrong? you bet.

            There is something about this one that says BUST all over it. We shall see.

    1. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS…Travel will be very difficult to
      impossible. Be prepared for significant reductions in
      visibility at times.

      really?

      1. Seems like literally everyone is doubling down on this. Really curious what TK and SAK are thinking.

  110. Should be interesting today. Given how apocolyptic this is becoming a total miss would be a riot after all this hype.

      1. Would love to see that…just odd for this event all these phone, app alerts. Didn’t get this much for the last two. It’s like every one gets more attention even if it’s not any worse. Help us all if we get a 5-peat next week like one station said.

  112. looks like NWS expecting overall ratios to be 10:1 or a bit more. Look at this

    Projected QPF totals range between 0.75 to 1.25 inch. This supports
    at least 8 inches and possibly 14 inches. This is our snow range in
    the core of the snow zone.

  114. Bernie talked about how the upper level low always over produce vs what is being modeled. Maybe NWS is accounting for that.

    2. (asking because people have been asking me if I think Wednesday or Thursday wind up being snow days for schools)

        1. Yeah our school has “Easter Monday” off which makes no sense to me (makes Easter a four day weekend). They usually cancel that first and hope they do.

          1. My mother went to BPS in the 1930s/40s and had Easter Monday off. By the time I was born, it was stopped. I didn’t know that some districts still have that as a holiday.

            1. Yeah beats me. I mean Half day on that Thursday before and don’t go back until
              Tuesday? Lot of time off. Guessing they will take it away.

        2. I get the impression that the heavy snow won’t really arrive until Wednesday mid-afternoon. IMO schools should really try to have normal sessions. Thursday, probably different story.

      1. Don’t care just don’t see where it’s coming from. Unless they are using just one model it seems made up ha.

  117. No changes at all to my thoughts based on last night’s data. 4-7 along and south of the Pike, 1-3 up to the MA/NH border and Cape/Islands. I think the biggest forecast risk is a shift to a more southeast solution where most places end up under 4″, like what the latest hi-res NAM showed. Alternatively, while I think the NWS “most likely” map is way too high as an official forecast at this point, it’s a plausible *maximum* high end scenario if we get a more amped up solution. That’s a lower risk IMO.

  119. I have to agree with many here, this storm screams of a potential bust. Suppression from the north seems stronger than what was modeled yesterday.

  120. New post!

    I am not jumping all the way on.
    3km NAM, RGEM, HRDPS, all make me very leery about doing that.

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