Wednesday Forecast

52 Comments

2:00AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 2-6)
A ridge of high pressure along the East Coast brings that well-advertised summer preview for the next few days, but today will be the only day without any threat of unsettled weather as a cold front approaching later Thursday may trigger a few showers and thunderstorms, with this chance to increase even more Friday as the front moves into the region. However this front will be slow to push through and will take until early Saturday to do so, and then it will probably hang up near or just south of the South Coast, with no complete clearing right through the coming weekend. So far not expecting much of any rainfall, however, though we must always watch this set-up for sneaky rain. Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 68-75 South Coast, 76-83 just inland from South Coast, 84-92 elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog interior low-lying areas. Lows 48-55 interior low-lying areas, 56-62 elsewhere. Wind WSW under 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered late afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms possible. Slightly more humid. Highs 65-73 South Coast, 73-78 just inland from South Coast, 78-85 elsewhere except 85-92 interior valleys.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 53-58 interior low-lying areas, 58-64 elsewhere. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 65-72 South Coast, 72-78 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of a shower South Coast. Lows from the middle to upper 50s. Highs from the upper 60s to middle 70s.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Lows from the lower to middle 50s. Highs from the middle 60s to lower 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 7-11)
A front hanging in the region early in the period (May 7-8) will bring the chance for some additional unsettled weather to the region. After that, high pressure should take over with fair weather in the May 9-11 time frame. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 12-16)
A cold front should bring some unsettled weather early in the period followed by a cool-down. There are some hits of the evolution of an omega block trying to get established toward the end of the period in which an upper level low may be situation somewhere near the East Coast. This may increase the risk of unsettled weather in the region.

52 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  2. Thanks, TK, and good morning, everyone!
    Congratulations, WxWeather, on all of your achievements!
    Enjoy your remaining weeks of school!

  3. SPC outlooks expands to include most of SNE in marginal risk for tomorrow. I believe WXwatcher mentioned this possibility in his post on the previous blog that SPC may expand the marginal risk area. I think its way too far east but we shall see. This will be updated around 1:30pm today. Curious what the SREF runs show today.
    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

    Friday outlook from SPC
    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

  4. A good thing to see and lets keep reducing the risk in future SREF model runs.

  5. NWS disussion re: severe for tomorrow

    The main concern for Thu is the potential for a few strong to
    perhaps severe t-storms developing in the afternoon. Given temps in
    the 80s and dewpoints climbing into the 60s, airmass will
    destabilize with CAPES increasing to 1000-1500 J/Kg in the
    afternoon. Strong mid level wind field will result in 0-6km shear
    40+ kt. Fast moving shortwave energy moving through low amplitude
    flow should be enough to trigger sct showers/t-storms. Mid level
    lapse rates are marginal and there is some risk of morning shower
    activity spilling into SNE which could impact instability. However,
    strong deep layer shear and steep low level lapse rates suggest a
    few strong to severe storms are possible with strong wind being
    the primary threat from bowing segments. Greatest risk for any
    severe weather will be in the interior.

    1. OK, so what level is this mentioned shortwave??

      700 mb, 500mb???

      I can’t see it and I want to

  6. I agree with NWS about the interior being greatest risk. I disagree with the SPC expanding the marginal risk across SNE like they did. As discussed yesterday any wind from off the water will weaken any thunderstorm that tries to move into those areas.

  7. Up to 74 at Logan as of 9 am. Can we make a run at 90, always seem to overachieve this time of the year with the dry air in place.

    2. Tomorrow OK, but NOT today. Thank you very much.
      85 or 86 today would suit me just fine. I need to install a few window ACs
      tonight. Did not get to it last night.

      1. I think the low dew points should hold on until this evening. And even then, it won’t be a huge jump to 70F. With that said, we’re not acclimated to this, especially not this spring. Hope your wife will be comfortable the next few days.

    3. yuck, i need my AC put in. usually i leave my AC in my room, but my dad decided to have my brother move it down in the basement. I was so mad.

  8. Thanks TK !

    I miss the old Garden for warm to hot spring days like today, with winter sports playoff games and all the stuff that came with the 98F temperature inside the building.

  13. Pure summer weather out there today. Quite a change from most of what we’ve seen lately!

    As I suspected yesterday, SPC has added a slight risk for severe weather tomorrow over most of SNE. A good call I think.

  14. Typical New England Spring …

    The warmest high temp at Logan during March, April and the 1st of May ….. 70F.

    No days to acclimate to any kind of 70s or low 80s ….. nope !!

    Then, all of a sudden, straight to 90F !!!!

  15. Hadi, you were spot on about the temperatures. Already several locations in the 90s. Going above model forecasts on days like this is a slam dunk, at least til all the leaves are out.

  16. Logan 2PM Obs

    Boston, Logan International Airport, MA
    (KBOS) 42.36056N 71.01056W

    Mostly Cloudy and Breezy
    88.0 °F
    Last Updated: May 2 2018, 1:54 pm EDT
    Wed, 02 May 2018 13:54:00 -0400
    Weather: Mostly Cloudy and Breezy
    Temperature: 88.0 °F (31.1 °C)
    Dewpoint: 41.0 °F (5.0 °C)
    Relative Humidity: 19 %
    Heat Index: 84 F (29 C)
    Wind: from the Southwest at 20.7 gusting to 28.8 MPH (18 gusting to 25 KT)
    Visibility: 10.00 miles
    MSL Pressure: 1012.6 mb
    Altimeter: 29.90 in Hg

  18. 3 PM at Logan, still 88. Wonder IF it touched 90 in Between any of the observations.

    1. Logan’s wind has gone SW. That could be capping the temperature. 😀
      Still impressive for this time of year.

  20. NWS talks about possible LEWP for Friday.

    A line echo wave pattern (LEWP) is a weather radar formation in which a single line of thunderstorms presenting multiple bow echoes forms south (or equatorward) of a mesoscale low-pressure area with a rotating “head”.

  22. 87° dp58° here in Sarasota feels great down here after the miserable spring.

  23. Logan 89 as of 3:54 PM
    DUE point 40
    Wind SW at 18

    Yahoo Weather reporting 90 with wind at 240 Degrees.

      1. As a Comparison and to dramatize the effects of that cool
        ocean, Nantucket sits at 57.

  24. There is a bogus story going around with anomaly charts showing minimal warming and say they are from nasa, found the same graphs in a known climate change deniers blog. The charts are not from noaa or nasa, i checked their data sets and ran them myself in r.studio, they totally show an increase, oh the power of this program despite the hassle of the class. Anyways what a day, today is nice in terms of temperature I hope the humidity does not get to bad, I have yet to get my a.c. up

  25. Betts hit 3 home runs again today making it 2 times this season and 4 for his career,
    passing Ted Williams on the all-time Red Sox list. Quite an accomplishment
    for that young man! Congratulations Mookie!!

  28. Reading the NWS discussions sounds like a lot of factors could limit for a bigger thunderstorm threat tomorrow.

    1. It’s much harder to get them in early May versus our more typical “season”. We must keep things in perspective.

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