The Week Ahead

1:58AM

Happy Labor Day 2011!

This won’t be the best of the 3 days here in the Boston area, as clouds will probably end up ruling, and there is the chance of a few showers and thunderstorms as well during the day. However, it still looks like most of the shower activity will hold off until day’s end or tonight, so the day will not be a washout by any stretch. The frontal system responsible for the increased chance of showers today and tonight will be slowing down to a crawl and becoming stationary over the region, and will hang around right through the middle of the week. This will allow some of the tropical moisture associated with Tropical Depression Lee (over the Gulf Coast States), to move up along the front and produce periods of showers during the Tuesday-Thursday time frame. I still expect Hurricane Katia to take a path northwestward, passing southwest of Bermuda, eventually turning north between Bermuda and the US East Coast, then northeast, passing well offshore of New England late in the week. Katia will do 2 things, one positive and one negative. The negative impact will be the large ocean swells and rough surf that will impact the coast later in the week. This will result in dangerous rip currents, and possible splashover in areas prone to it. The positive impact will be that the storm will serve to pull the stationary front and wet weather out of here later Thursday or Friday, introducing a very nice period of weather in time for next weekend. Hopefully this timing works out.

Boston Area Forecast for the next 7 days…

TODAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly this afternoon. Warm and humid. High 80-85. Wind SW 10-20 MPH gusting to 25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Mild and muggy. Low 63-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with showers likely. Mild and muggy. High 72-77. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with episodes of showers. Patchy fog. Mild and muggy. Low 64-69. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers. Warm and humid. High 75-80. Wind variable 5-10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Chance of showers. Low 66. High 76.

FRIDAY: Clearing. Low 59. High 77.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Low 55. High 72.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Low 55. High 75.

52 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  1. TK, thanks for the update and help in picking the BBQ day this weekend. I am seeing the the eventual NE turn of Katia, but still see Lee further west than I thought it would be.

  2. Thanks TK!! You think any chance we escape rain free on Thursday?

    A beautiful morning so far, let’s see how long we can hold on to the sun today!!

    1. Always a chance things could move along a little quicker at midweek but at the moment I’d plan on Thursday being at least mostly cloudy with a threat of showers.

  3. Thanks for the update TK ! Katia has developed a large eye this morning. Its been a strange storm with up and down intensity.

    Nice start to the day also down here. Under 13 hrs of sun at Boston today…will be under 12 hrs just 3 weeks from today. Can a night of light winds, clear skies and temps falling quickly after sunset to morning lows in the 40s and a few upper 30s be far away ?……..

    1. Katia has encountered variable conditions, and part of the reason may have to do with the fact that Irene stirred the waters up and brought areas of colder water to the surface in patches. It’s been observed that a tropical system following a path somewhat close to the swath of influence of a recent storm may encounter difficulty organizing due to colder water brought to the surface when warmer water was displaced.

  4. Happy Labor day everybody- It has been a nice weekend down here on the south shore, nice sun and nice breezes. Not sure if anybody besides myself and JJ caught the the one hour show on TWC last night on Irene. I thought It was very good. My wife and I were sitting on the front porch last night and I was saying what a difference a week makes.

    1. I agree JJ. I can’t believe that some people did not even know that a storm was coming. How can you go day to day not seeing the news.

      1. Oh John there r so many people and I mean alot that never watch the news or weather,, they just don’t, it’s very weird but they r everywhere and I mean everywhere, I have a friend that is like that but he has never cancelled anything bc of weather or changed his plans, for some I think it doesn’t matter what the weather is, they do what they do

  5. I agree. I think people don’t watch the news because a large part of it is depressing. Very rarely does the news open with a positive story and I think when you come home from work especially if you have a stressful day you don’t want to hear about a shooting, a down turn in the economy etc. Personally after watching a half hour that is enough for me.

    1. Of course, on the other side of the coin, there has been so much “hype” with previous storms in the past that did not materialize (TWC, ahem!) more often than not. However, with Irene any hype was very much warranted.

      1. I agree with that to, so many storms here have been hyped up, and nothing happens. We have seen this happen with snow storms. As far as the news goes I need to watch It everyday or at least read a paper.

  6. Hello and happy labor day everyone. Thank you TK

    We were noticing that trees down in this area seem mostly rotted. My son had wondered if the damage from what was not a hurricane could have been as extensive as it was because it’s been a while since we’ve had sustained winds even at TS strength and it was natures way of weeding out trees that were no longer viable. Could that be possible??

    1. We got alot of healthy trees down here in north Attleboro 61mph gust here, reminded me of hurricane Gloria when I was a teenager, but yeah alot dead trees fell as well 🙂

    2. Hi Vicki- As far as the trees go some around here were healthy. When trees come down there are some things to consider such as health of the tree, type of tree and the condition of the tree. Pine trees can come down easier, and don’t hold me to this I think It is a blackwood tree can come down real easy. I think in my oppinion the wet ground the most was not a good start combined with the wind. I have see healthy oak trees come down at work.

      1. Hi Vicki and others…Back on August 10th I had a huge maple in my front yard taken down and a lot of “rot” was left behind. I am so glad I did it to say the least. The tree could have crashed on my house, a parked car, or in the middle of the street.

        Home owners should really take a look at trees on their property and call an expert to determine if they should be taken down or at least trimmed like I did. It can save a lot of potential damage down the road. (HINT) if a tree is leaning a lot take notice especially.

      2. I agree that the wet ground contributed, 2 uprooted 35-40ft ornamental trees, luckily it didn’t hit anything

    3. Thanks for the input. I think pines have shallow roots or am I wrong John? The majority I’m seeing here are not pines. It just seems odd that there were so many. The wind in framingham are wasn’t close to Gloria. It might have been more like Bob With Gloria it sounded like a freight train was rumbling through your yard.

      1. Pine trees have a deep tap root- a root can be as long as the height in the tree- 20′ roots would not be out of the question.

      2. Alot of the trees down here I would say were mixed- like I said the wet ground was a huge factor in why these trees came down so easy, add a strong wind gust to that and SNAP, down she goes.

  7. Boston is 86F as of 1pm…..Does it have a chance at 90F….need 1 more for the season, we’ve been stuck at 13 for a while now. 🙂

    Today is the most uncomfortable day, in my opinion, south of Boston….. Last night was strange, the dew points were in the low 70s in northern New England and decreased to the upper 50s to low 60s as you headed south and east towards the Cape.

    1. Tom it seems reversed from there to here. It was horribly muggy yesterday here and no wind. You could cut the air with a knife as my dad used to say:) It’s humid today although not as bad but there is a lovely breeze.

  8. Yeah bob was nothing here either, we only got a gust to 47mph, with Gloria it was 65 mph gust and Irene was 61mph here anyway, between 9-11am during Irene we were sustained around 47mph gusting to 60-65mph along a squall line rotating to the ne of irene, my wife from missiouri said it was like a severe tstorm for 8hrs,but it was weird bc here after around 1130am the sustained wind decreased to around 25-30mph but the gust were still around 60mph

      1. I agree Gloria was a little stronger but when Irene was at peak Sunday morning it totally reminded me of Gloria just the way u could hear the roar of wind coming in the distance, but bob was not much more than a few gusty winds at least hear in northern Bristol cty. Have a great day

  9. If in fact Irene didn’t match Gloria and Bob in terms of wind gusts, it is very interesting then that power loss was an entire week in many cases. I believe Plainville MA was scheduled to get power back finally yesterday (Sunday).

    Were there any week-long power outages after Gloria? I lost power here in Dorchester for a good 12 hours and other locals maybe 2-4 days but I don’t recall much longer than that.

    1. The wet ground with the combined wind sent many trees down on to the lines. Well I total agree the wind was strong, the wet ground made It so much easier for the trees to come down, and in many cases on wires or transformers. I think we had the same problem with the snow this last winter – the power outages. After some good rains the ground can really soften, add some good wind and all bets are off.

  10. Here are the guesses for 90 degree plus days

    Philip 11
    JimmyJames 13
    Scott 16
    Vicki 9
    Rainshine 15
    Tom 14
    Coastal 10
    Hadi 18
    John 12
    JMA 12
    TK 14

    1. Thanks Vicki, I would say that Hadi will be the likely winner here although I don’t know even remotely how many 90+ days Boston has had so far. I hate HHH temps so much that after while I don’t want to keep track. Even though we are now in September we could still get more of “those” days. I can hardly wait for October to arrive…no more HHH days, hurricanes, tornadoes, or thunderstorms. 🙂

        1. Thanks Vicki, if you say “13” so far then I will take your word for it. With having that 103-degree day, it seemed like we had a “gazillion” days of 90+, lol. 🙂

  11. We may not be able to put away hurricane season after Katia’s passing just yet…there is a tropical wave that has a 60% chance of development located 550 miles SW of Cape Verde Islands moving west-northwestward and it is now looking very good according to the NHC. What is amazing is that just this morning the wave only had a 20% chance.

  12. Don’t count Boston out for 1 or 2 more 90+ days. They have a shot around September 12 & September 21, +/- 2 days.

    Boston hit 99 twice in September 1983. That was a hot summer that went on for a while…

    1. I remember summer 1983 all too well. I was in the first trimester of pregnancy with our son. And we didn’t have AC.

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