Tuesday Forecast

23 Comments

7:15AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 21-25)
This would be a very cold day in January, but it’s May, and we’ve crossed into the “warm side of spring” where it’s hard for it to feel too chilly unless you have a wind right off the water, or are in a valley on a morning of radiational cooling. Today will feature passing clouds trying to interrupt a strong late May sun, while polar air blows in from Canada on a gusty northwest wind. So, while our summer preview 80s are 20 degrees lower and in the 60s today, it still won’t feel all that bad out there, but if you are trying to do yard work, it probably won’t be that easy with the gusty wind. High pressure moves in tonight through Wednesday, setting the wind down. Wednesday will be a very nice late spring day. And even though we are in a new weather pattern, we still have some activity to keep track of, and the next system of low pressure will dive out of Canada and cross the region Thursday night, departing Friday, with the next round of unsettled weather which will consist of showers and possible thunderstorms. It may be slow to improve Friday as a trough lingers behind the departing low but a weak area of high pressure will be in by night and then move offshore Saturday with mainly fair weather, but an approaching cold front late Saturday will bring another threat for showers. However, do not look at Saturday as an unsettled or wash-out day. It won’t be. It will be a decent start to the Memorial Day Weekend.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Slight risk of a passing shower. Highs 62-69. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusting to 30 MPH or higher at times.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 48-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 61-68, coolest coast. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. Risk of showers especially late-day. Highs 63-70, coolest coast. Wind light variable to SE.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of a thunderstorm. Lows 50-57. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Cloudy start with showers or drizzle lingering, then breaking clouds. Highs 60-67. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 48-55. Wind light W.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers late-day or evening. Highs 68-75, cooler South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 26-30)
A cold front moves offshore early Sunday May 26 with much of the day dry after an early shower risk, and another cold front approaches later Memorial Day Monday May 27, with a late-day shower threat, leaving much of that day dry as well. High pressure dominates May 28 with fair weather, and then a broad trough will bring mild but unsettled weather in the May 29-30 period with a rain shower threat at times.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 31-JUNE 4)
A weak blocking pattern will put high pressure to the west and north and low pressure to the south and east of New England. We can be vulnerable to unsettled or mainly cloudy weather in this pattern but my early idea is that high pressure will be close enough to have the stronger influence on the weather, which should be mainly dry and seasonable. Will keep a close eye and make adjustments as needed. This outlook is a little bit different than what I had yesterday when it looked as if this period would be more zonal with low pressure further south and east. So this is a low confidence outlook at this time.

23 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  1. Eric Fisher was joking a little last night about how many complaints he got yesterday about the heat. Right on cue. 😉

    Today, it’ll probably be “too windy”. Tomorrow, I’m sure someone will say it’s “too sunny”, or too calm! 😉

    Haha! Good day all.

    1. I just happened to be watching one of the evening newscasts and David Wade said, “it was hot today” and Eric had a hilarious reaction.

    2. And if today is awesome, there is always next weekend or the following weekend or the upcoming summer 😉

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Some thoughts on yesterday:

    1. It was NOT too hot nor was it too HUMID. I took a walk in the middle of the afternoon and it was absolutely BEAUTIFUL!!!!!!! I was perfectly comfortable, of course I was wearing shorts and a short sleeve shirt which certainly helped.
    2. At my location, it was a miss for the first round of storms with cells to the North
    and South but nothing overhead. For the 2nd batch, I received some “tweener” rain
    as bulk of cells were once again North and South of my location.
    3. heard ZERO thunder with 1st batch and heard a rumble or 2 in the distance with
    the 2nd batch

    re: today
    GLORIOUS day out there! FANTASTIC!!! Keep em coming TK.

    re: Ocean

    Current Boston Buoy water temperature is: 50.54 F
    which is 1.23 Degrees BELOW AVERAGE!!

    A few SUNNY days will fix that. 🙂 High sun angle does miracles with water temp.

  7. Thanks TK
    I didn’t find the humidity that bad yesterday.
    Looking like Thursday could be another active thunderstorm day in Upstate NY like this past Sunday was. SREF already highlighting that area in potential tornadic development and the SPC has that area in a slight risk. Looks to be another situation where the activity weakens entering SNE although the SPC does have a marginal risk up for western parts of SNE.

  8. Dewpoints are in the 30’s in many locations. These temps won’t last much longer giving way to 60-70+ temps until October at the earliest.

  9. Instability for strong to severe thunderstorms remains west of SNE on Thursday Parts of PA and Upstate NY with the latest runs of the 12z American models.

  10. Ryan Hanrahan’s tweet for Thursday
    Plume of steep mid level lapse rates and strong forcing overhead Thursday night could result in a round of nocturnal severe weather. With a strong inversion strong wind may hard to come by but large hail and lots of lightning possible.

  12. With the severe weather parameters the 12z American models are showing along with the SREF I would be paying attention if I am in Upstate NY and PA for Thursday. To me if we see any strong storms Thursday far western New England although Ryan sees things different with the tweet I posted here.

    1. Thanks for the info.

      I was going to ask if the low, now depicted to track north of southern New England, introduced thunderstorm potential into our area?

      Vigorous 500 mb feature, however, it is passing through overnight.

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