Wednesday Forecast

118 Comments

7:14AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 31-AUGUST 4)
High pressure offshore delivers one more day of heat/humidity but a cold front moving into the area will trigger afternoon thunderstorms. Not every location will be hit directly but those that are could see a strong storm with downpours, lightning, and locally gusty winds. Conditions will settle down tonight as the storms lose support from heating and the front itself will make its way to just offshore by morning, so a morning shower may occur near Cape Cod Thursday, and a pop up afternoon shower is possible near a sea breeze boundary, otherwise high pressure will build in later Thursday through Friday with some great weather to start off August. Some humidity will return over the weekend along with a risk of a few showers and thunderstorms as a trough of low pressure makes its way into the region.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny morning. Variably cloudy afternoon with scattered showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 86-93. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and a risk of thunderstorms. Humid. Lows 66-73. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers early morning, Cape Cod. Risk of an isolated afternoon shower southeastern NH, eastern MA, and northern RI. Less humid. Highs 80-87. Wind light NW to N with coastal sea breezes developing.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog interior low elevations. Lows 58-65. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest along the shore. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Slight risk of isolated thunderstorms. More humid. Highs 83-90. Wind light SW.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind light SW.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 85-92. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 5-9)
Weak high pressure brings fair weather August 5. A broad trough will move across the region sending a stronger front through the region with more cloudiness and a cooling trend with a couple episodes of unsettled weather during the August 6-8 period. High pressure builds in with fair weather by August 9.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 10-14)
The upper pattern will feature high pressure ridging further west in the US and well off the Atlantic Coast which will allow the jet stream to sink a little further south, preventing major heat and bringing occasional shower and thunderstorm threats heading into mid August.

118 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  4. Thank you, TK.

    It would appear that by this evening the t-storms will be more scattered than widespread. So, perhaps there won’t be a delay in my flight. We’ll see.

  6. from nws

    Latest high-res models support current expectation of scattered
    showers and storms this afternoon, mainly between 3 PM and 8
    PM. A little concerned we might see an organized line of storms
    develop per HRRR with potential for wind damage and localized
    minor flooding

  7. Thanks TK
    Hopefully July will be the worst of the heat and humidity we see this summer and the heat and humidity we get will be tolerable during August. At least with all this heat we did get 18 days of 90 or higher at BDL which is a record for any month. It could be 19 if it hits 90 or higher today. To me if it is going to be this hot might as well set some records.

    1. I would love to see the 90s gone for August, probably not realistic though. I imagine Boston isn’t far from 18 days as well. I have lost count on that.

  10. Philip BDL is currently at 21 days 90 or higher with 18 of them coming this month. We may add another one today.

  12. Am I correct that this July is the hottest month on record for Boston? I have a bad feeling that we are going to keep breaking heat records every month, season and year indefinitely.

  13. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

    Headed for a minimum of the NAO next few days.

    Models translating this to modest ridging at 500 mb up by Baffin Island and to its south, a 500 mb low traveling southeastward through southeast Canada.

    This, in turn, turns the flow NW to SE over New England.

    It’s associated cool, dry airmass will pass through southeast Canada. I have a feeling Caribou and Presque ME may struggle to get to 70F Monday.

    Here, in southern New England, it will be a swipe, so, it won’t be that cool, but, I think Monday might have a chance to be one of the more comfortable days we have seen in a while.

  14. Activity developing between Albany and Pittsfield. The beginning stages of our severe storms I assume?

  15. Looks like SPC will be placing virtually all of New England in the slight risk
    for today. They are updating now so can’t see the map just yet.

  17. Speaking of nature……..we are, aren’t we???

    My daughter rescued a dragonfly from a spider web in our garage. But it landed on her arm and just sat there. It had webbing all over it. It sat for maybe five minutes – presumably forming a plan – flew off rather awkwardly and proceeded to fly back and forth very low over the hot driveway. The more it did this, the better it flew.

    It clearly had figured out that was how to get rid of the webs covering it.

  18. All of SNE under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch now.

    Radar is really lighting up.

    Storm near Springfield is warned.

    Hartford is getting hammered right now too and that looks to be headed straight for me…

  20. Thank you, Vicki, for your travel wishes.

    Just finished talking to my cat about her having to woman the fort for 4 days. I have a kind neighbor who will feed Mia. Cats understand more than we think. She knows something’s up: The packing, suitcase, British pounds on the kitchen table.

    1. Being a cat person, I could not love this post more. I hope Mia enjoys her quiet time and I bet she will be very happy when you return.

      1. True. She’ll meow a lot – “Where the heck were you? Out hunting for Purina cat chow? What took you so long?” – and then after the complaining she’ll show cat appreciation; mostly nudges.

  21. That storm near Springfield is a good one. Lots of lightning and probably a lot of wind. A good deal of rotation in that one too, fairly broad but worth watching.

  24. We are now under a severe thunderstorm warning here in Tolland County as well.

    We’ve got thunder, lightning, and heavy rain now. Winds have picked up a bit.

  25. Any thoughts on the arrival timeline for Boston?

    My hope is that it will be AFTER 5:00 p.m.

  31. Worst of it went to our north but still more action brewing to our southwest.

    Temp dropped from 90 to 69 in an hour!

    0.21″ of rain so far.

  33. Side swiped by one of the cells with a bit of rain, but not enough to tip the rain
    gauge. Also, some thunder and lightning. One strike less than a mile away.

    1. Oops some more rain accompanied by some nice gusts of wind around 30 mph.
      Rain gauge ticked up to 0.02 inch so far and temp down to 85.

      1. Pretty much the same story here in Back Bay: A little rain, a few wind gusts, and some thunder and lightning in the distance.

        I’m lucky: London’s 4-day forecast is pretty much rain-free, mid 70s (50s at night). Sounds like September/October here. I absolutely love that kind of weather.

  37. The cells are moving SW to NE or a bit WSW to ENE or in between. Close to that.
    Whole mess is sliding Eastward.

    1. What did they do to fix that thing? It used to be quite unreliable?
      Wouldn’t be great if we could really rely on the HRRR???

  39. Two friends of mine headed out on a girls road trip today and they had to pull over in Tolland CT due to torrential rain. They are back on the road now.

  41. Wind recently gusted to 41 mph at Logan. Nice gust, but sub-severe.
    Logan down to 79, dp 63

  43. Just drove through it in downtown Sturbridge about 1/2 hour ago on my way to pick up one of my boys from camp. It was very windy with many cloud to ground strikes. Torrential rain. My other son is at a Boy Scout camp and I’m sure he is loving being outside in the storms. I guess my passion for weather rubbed off a bit. :). Starting to rain heavier again as I type.

    1. In this case I don’t think so it’s just individual cells are set up to do it.

    1. Too many trees in the way. IF it were, it would have been a biggie and
      I think we would have seen tremendous rotation.

      1. We had a lot of rumbling and wind and a tiny bit of hail mixed in….one close strike and clap. But that’s all she wrote

      2. Fire trucks were going like crazy, so I think one of the strikes
        started a fire not too far from us. Too many trees to see anything
        and I am not inclined to walk or drive snooping around.

  52. The second cell that went over Logan produced a wind gust of 74 miles per hour.

    1. Wow. I heard a lot of cracking going on in woods behind the house. Wind was most intense thing here

    2. Cool. Did not happen here. Just as well. With the number of trees in
      my neighborhood, 74 mph could do some signifcant damage.

      1. The downdraft or cool rush of air that, with some storms, rushes out ahead of their arrival and you see a big gust of wind and a big drop in temp, usually without rain, but with some interesting cloud passages.

  58. Got some wild weather here. Big trees down, traffic being rerouted. One was giant (50-60′ tall?) and the other had a huge rootball that looked like it was just yanked up from the ground. We had a few hailstones too. Just wild.

      1. Yes, downtown Marblehead. I was on an errand in a florists shop with all glass windows. Someone commented that it looked like we were in a car wash. Their outside window boxes got shredded before our eyes. We saw tree branches blown in that did not come from the nearest trees, like dark red maple leaves from a block away.

        It was quite a spectacle.

        1. And I’ve seen a report on Eric’s twitter from trees down, etc in York, ME. Quite a large area affected perhaps.

          Glad your ok !

  59. Quiet in Taunton…Got some gusts with the outflow boundary, then the sun came back out again.

    Glad you’re okay, Oceanair…

    Kind of wild down in your neck of the woods, too, WxWeather, yes?

      1. Busy, but certainly nothing we haven’t seen several times this year. The power outage numbers were higher than I expected (well into the tens of thousands a few hours ago), I think at least partly because there were so many trees/limbs weakened up by the vicious storms from a week or so ago. In any case, nothing today that matches the 74mph gust at Logan. That’s pretty impressive.

  60. 0.44 for now. Looks like some rain approaching from the SW. We shall see later.
    Might have to close the windows again.

      1. One run of the GFS had an East Coast threat, then it was gone. Typical model stuff.

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