Tuesday Forecast

6:56AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 29-NOVEMBER 2)
A blanket of low level moisture continues today into Wednesday as the light and prevailing surface wind gradually shifts from east to southeast. This means that pockets of drizzle will be around, favoring areas closer to the coast. But Wednesday, the risk of rain showers will increase as a trough approaches from the west and an area of mid level moisture moves in from the south. This will be a precursor to a stronger push of air from the south as the gradient increases between offshore high pressure and an approaching front from the west, parented by a strong low pressure area moving to the northwest of New England late Thursday then passing north of the area on Friday. What does this mean for the Halloween weather? Well with already talk of Halloween wash-outs I need to step in here and say “not so fast!” We are going to be dealing with showery rainfall, and as we get into the warm sector during Thursday, it’s very possible that large areas of rain-free conditions will exist, so we may end up with a window of opportunity for no rainfall during trick-or-treat time, however, the wind gusts may be a bigger issue, not that they will be severe, but we may be dealing with a lot of leaves blowing about, and wind-sensitive costumes and Halloween set-ups being impacted somewhat. I am not going to over-hype this potential, because I don’t think we’re looking at a major wind event, just a gusty Halloween night, maybe adding to the “spookiness”. So that leaves us only the rainfall issue to fine-tune, which we will do in the next 2 blog updates. On Friday, a strong cold front passes by, and a day that starts warm, humid, and showery will end dry, blustery, and much cooler. This sets us up for a mainly dry and chilly Saturday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of drizzle and fog. Highs 53-60. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered rain showers. Lows 45-52. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Highs 60-67. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated rain showers. Lows 53-60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous rain showers. Increasingly humid. Highs 63-70. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered rain showers. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind S 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely early to mid morning. Sun/cloud mix late morning on. Highs 60-67 early, then falling through the 50s to the 40s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW with higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 3-7)
An offshore wave of low pressure and a polar jet disturbance come close to meeting but don’t quite make it, so early November 3 just brings a rain/snow shower risk instead of a period of precipitation, followed by dry/breezy/chilly weather. High pressure moves in for nice but cool weather November 4. The later November 5 to early November 7 period carries some uncertainty as another pair of disturbances (one offshore and one coming through the Great Lakes) have to be watched should they start to interact. Otherwise somewhere in there just a period of light precipitation is possible. A stronger cold air mass may arrive at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 8-12)
Fair, chilly start then a moderating trend. Unsettled weather may approach by the end of the period.

93 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  1. I agree with this guy 95% of the time. This particular update I agree with 100%. He stops shy of saying that a handful of named tropical storms didn’t need to be named, because they were never actually tropical storms, so I’ll say that part myself. 😉 But this covers far more than the tropics… Please give it a watch. 🙂

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YG5dvczEkNQ&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR3B4KBxpWZxv2GxiAG15c6MINSOIK0paCqq8_l6-6X1GjNJHT1Hy9-VauU

  2. There have been some incorrect insinuations in some media that yesterday’s king tide (at Hampton) was unmatched. No. It wasn’t. There have been many that peaked that one, and nothing really yet that has matched the one in 2004, 15 years ago. Just setting the record straight.

  3. Thank you TK

    I don’t know where folks are hearing a lot of concern for rain Thursday. I am hearing concern for EEE which surely should exist. I’m sorry to see the warmth. At least there is wind.

    1. It’s all over my Facebook pages the rain unfortunately nothing has even been mentioned for triple E that I’ve seen

        1. I think everyone is in high risk we were sprayed I think 3 times . Like I said I keep seeing the Halloween rain posts like 6 just this morning .

          1. Found a map. You are moderate which is high enough. We are high but sit on the border of two critical areas. I suspect no one explained to the mosquitoes that they cannot cross town lines 😉

            I find it curious that parents are more worried about getting a bit wet than EEE.

            1. Yeah I know Vicki honestly I’m on every town page down here for work & I have not seen it I am sure there could have been some I missed . Have a nice day Vicki

            1. Just heartbreaking, Coastal. In truth, we had more mosquitoes after spraying than before. We have more now than we did all summer. But it is relative since I didn’t see any all summer.

    1. Love those birds. I see them occasionally while out fishing.
      2 weeks ago, I actually saw a White Heron along a salt water creek
      in Quincy. I had to look it up to confirm my suspicions. Never had I seen
      one of those before.

  4. Any chance of thunderstorms and/or spin ups for Halloween night into Friday morning? I get the impression of a mid-summer airmass over us with dewpoints near the opressive range.

  5. Friends of Hampton Beach Facebook page… Huge debate ongoing as to whether or not Halloween should be postponed due to heavy rain Thursday night. Why?

    Not one mention of EEE.

    Not to mention, heavy rain is likely not going to be an issue. Wind will be more of one, because of leaf covered roads combined with negligent driving.

    1. Same exact think I’m seeming on my Facebook pages Tk as mentioned above . It’s been actually non stop .

      1. I just checked sutton parents page for the third time today. Not one mention of rain other than someone posted a list of places you can trick or treat indoor. However, there is not even one comment on that post.

    2. Is EEE a threat in that area? I know it is in some seacoast locations but have no idea where. If in fact it is a threat and rain is more important, I continue to shake my head.

        1. I find it interesting that Boston which can’t get below 40F at night but yet is in a low risk area while many areas well outside that very likely had a frost, if not a freeze are in much higher risk zones. Not to mention the Cape hardly any EEE threat at all. I don’t get it.

          1. It takes a hard killing frost, not just a frost. We have had multiple frosts. Depending on who you talk to, it has to be 28 or below for 2-4 hours. We have not had a killing frost. I would prefer to have two before I am back to sitting on the deck late at night

    1. Something happened in 2013 also. My head is full of renegotiation prices with Verizon leaving no room left to recall what happened in 2013. I just know we lost power three halloween’s in a row and my oldest grand (born in 2007) still thinks power loss is a thing that happens every halloween.

  6. February 8th-9th Blizzard of 2013. I had 30 inches from that storm which was the biggest snowfall I ever got in one storm. The previous highest I had for a snowstorm was back in February 2006 with 24 inches of snow.

    1. I remember that storm. We also had 30 inches. My son in law had to climb out the window because all of the doors were blocked by snow. We had a couple of other 24-30 inch storms in recent memory also.

      1. Sorry – I didn’t realize you were replying to my 2013 power outage. Whatever happened was right at Halloween. I’ll have to check when I have a minute. Thank you, JJ.

    2. JJ – I’m not seeing anything on WHW in October 2013. Maybe it was 2010. I’ll have to think on it.

  7. There was a major storm October 29-30, 2017. I don’t know if that was the storm you’re all thinking of. I know that was only two years ago.

    1. Thanks, Capt!!! I’m now wondering if it was just at halloween or perhaps was during the late summer. I have moved the Verizon renegotiation cost figures out of my head and left it empty so I can think.

      It was three outages but only two Halloweens. We lost power August 2011 with Irene and then again for the snow storm in 2011 and then Sandy in 2012.

      Ahhhhh- those were the good old days when I lived in a house that was fortunate enough to have power outages. Deep sighhh.

  8. As you can see from the map, yes Hampton Beach is in the moderate risk area for EEE.

    I was in Epping the other night and before it got cool enough to shut them down, I saw a couple mosquitoes.

    1. Did not see a mosquito in JP the entire season.

      Never saw one the 3 or 4 times I went fishing this year.

      The only time I saw a mosquito was in Marshfield in August and got nailed twice with zero consequences. 🙂

      1. Here in Woburn we usually see 2 peaks, June & August. We had very few in either but a bunch in July.

    2. Thank you! TK, I find it absolutely astonishing that folks are worried about rain and not EEE.

      And Epping…..makes me smile. I spent lot of time there racing and also watching.

  9. according to 12Z 3KM NAM, wind gusts to 46 mph in Boston Halloween eve during prime Trick or treat times.

    1. Those gusts are probably overdone somewhat, but it will be fairly breezy. Still chuckling about the GFS’s insistence on cold air for Halloween. I’m rapidly reaching the conclusion that in the beyond 96 hour time period the performance has worsened since the upgrade.

  10. Wind for Thursday evening is getting worse and worse. It seems that all models are projecting wind gusts over 40mph. I might just take the overnight train back from DC. Hassle for sure, but flying for me is getting to be so stressful. I absolutely dread it now. I avoid it as much as possible. But, now I have to go for work.

        1. Wind will be a factor. On the ground, in the air, everywhere. On a positive note, mosquitoes won’t like it.

          1. Yes mosquitoes won’t but Sutton always seems to have trees or limbs down. No matter what way you look at it, safety to me is the big concern. My lawn is like a sponge from the rain we have had.

            Truthfully, our neighborhood has underground wires and no big trees so it doesn’t matter. But then it is the whole and not a small slice that should matter

  11. I agree with Bernie on the PA to northern New England threat for the line, particularly northwesterly New England. Not so much for areas to the east. Far less support for keeping that thing going.

      1. South 10-20 sustained gusts 25-35 (spot gusts to 40) afternoon & evening. Area of showers should end south to north between 3PM and 7PM, faster timing is possible. Rain free or just passing sprinkles and light showers much of mid to late evening. Bands of showers arrive overnight Dying squall line comes through Friday morning. Not expecting that to be too bad.

        1. Thanks TK. Am I reading correctly that south means southern MA and not south shore. 25-35 with gusts to 40 here is not good IMO with soggy ground and limbs that seem to love to come down in Sutton.

  12. Man first all day now all night should Halloween be postponed it’s like the big thing on Facebook. Should we postpone Xmas if it snows , Easter if the eggs smell I mean come on what the he’ll is this works coming to . Put your rain coat on & get your ass out there or stay home !!!!! Halloween is on 10/31

    1. I don’t think kids and adults are outside walking under tree branches for Christmas or Easter. The rain isn’t the problem. Reading here I suspect you know that. The wind with saturated ground could easily be a serious problem

      I’ve already said kids in my neighborhood won’t be impacted and wind will keep mosquitoes away. But it isn’t about my kids….it’s about all kids

      Do you think it is kids or adults who will notice a change in days?

      1. Both . I only saw Halloween postponed once in 48 years that was the no name storm in marshfield. That was due to power loss & lots of destruction throughout the town especially by the ocean .

        1. I don’t think one child would be upset by having Halloween moved a few days …if the parents handled it properly. Some communities postponed Halloween after the 2011 snow storm. Framingham did not…and we didn’t have power. My grands has two days of trick or treating.

          It’s about safety. Period.

  13. This particular case, I think trick or treating Saturday night would be better ….

    Why ….. because Thursday night will feel like July, ie summertime.

    Saturday night will be nice and chilly.

    I might add, as a middle school teacher, it’s such a pleasure dealing with sugar crashes the next morning, whereas, the children’s parents could deal with that instead on Sunday. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  14. If we take the 00z NAM to heart, the strongest S and SSW winds are 11pm to 5am overnight Thursday night, into Friday morning.

  15. If the Nationals win today and tomorrow, I believe it’ll be a first. Correct me if I’m wrong, but I don’t think that in any sport in a 7 game series has the winning team won all the road games (4), while the losing team wins all the home games (3).

    The officiating in all leagues except hockey is embarrassingly bad. That so-called `interference’ call was truly awful. I completely understand the manager Martinez’ response. I would be livid, too.

    Man, I’ll miss baseball when the season comes to a close. Nothing like it, except hockey.

  16. I confirmed that it’s never happened in baseball or basketball. I don’t know about hockey. I can imagine that perhaps it has happened in hockey, as home ice is often not a big advantage.

  17. I heard during game if Nationals win which they did it will be first time the road team has won the first six games in a best of seven series.

  18. The 00z GFS seems to have upped its wind gust potential a bit.

    The EURO all along has had an impressive 850 mb jet.

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