Friday Forecast

63 Comments

10:29AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 1-5)
New month. New pattern, for now. A large scale pattern, rooted out of a warm water bubble in the central Pacific, has allowed New England a fairly mild, though not overly warm, October, while much of the western and central US turned rather chilly. Now things will be shifting a bit. Not that we’re about to turn brutally cold and snowy. It’s not quite winter yet, folks. We enter later autumn with a pattern that will make it feel like you think it would. We’ll be on the cooler side of normal to start the month and that will definitely be evident here during the first 5 days of November. A strong cold front moved offshore in the early morning hours, accompanied by showers and downpours and very gusty winds. Power outages have resulted for several thousand households across the area. The good news is, while today is still going to be a gusty day, winds will be diminishing later and we’ll enjoy a calmer weekend overall, especially Saturday, to allow any cleanup and repairs to be quickly finished. The weather is also going to be fairly dry, but we are about to have a very close call with what could have been a quick but significant storm. Two piece of energy, one coming across the Great Lakes and another offshore, will just start to combine forces as they pass by the region Saturday night. Had they been closer or interacted sooner, different story. For now, just expecting a brief period of rain across Cape Cod Saturday night. The only other weather system to deal with will be an insignificant trough approaching from the west on Tuesday that will be largely unnoticed except for some clouds in the northern and western sky.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Temperatures falling into 50s. Wind W 15-30 MPH, higher gusts, gradually diminishing during the afternoon.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts early, diminishing.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A period of rain possible Cape Cod. Lows 35-42 except 42-49 Cape Cod. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 26-33 interior, 33-40 coastal and urban areas. Wind W diminishing to under 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 25-32 interior, 33-40 coastal and urban areas. Wind W under 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 6-10)
Briefly milder November 6, dry weather expected. Trough swings through the region and drives a frontal system with rain showers across the area November 7, starting mild then turning cooler later. High pressure brings dry weather and cooler than average temperatures November 8-10.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 11-15)
After a dry and seasonably chilly start, a little more in the way of unsettled weather is possible as we transition out of a cooler spell toward a temperature moderation.

63 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  2. Thank you, TK!

    It was so humid/wet last night that our garage was actually foggy inside and the doors were closed.

  4. Thanks TK. Get better soon!

    It will be interesting if Logan gets below 40F overnight at some point this weekend.

      1. Mr. Woods Hill Weather……why are you posting/reading? Don’t make me come over there. Although, it might be entertaining to have a crazed old woman driving through the town yelling “Where is Woods Hill Weather?”

        All kidding aside. I hope you are improving.

        1. haha!! sometimes going about my normal business is the best thing I can do…

          Fortunately, for some reason I planned today as a “non-work” day a while ago, so that’s good. I am about to be out for a while though. I need it I think.

  8. Thanks TK !

    Feel better !

    We had a 2 hour delay in Marshfield, I believe parts of 3a had to be shut down because a large tree fell across the road and it took them a while to tend to the tree and re-open the road.

  11. West Bridgewater Schools have had two “wind”, emergency days. No school because of no power at the school as a result of the last two windstorms.

      1. Their original last day of school was Friday, June 12. It is now Tuesday, June 16 and we have not seen a flake of snow yet. They did start classes on Tuesday, August 27. Good thing!

  12. Is it me, or was this October the windiest on record? It seems that any system within range of SNE had powerful/hurricane winds.

  14. Thanks TK. Hope you are feeling better.

    Regarding trick or treating last night, it was a beautiful night. Breezy, warm and muggy here with temps near 70 and a few spritzes of light rain. There were tons of kids out. Were it not for the light rain at times and breeze, probably would have felt borderline uncomfortable. We had people over at the house before going out trick or treating and it got so stuffy, we actually had to turn the AC on briefly.

    Temp wise anyway, it was the warmest Halloween night I can recall. As of 1:30AM on Nov 1st, Willimantic was still reporting a temp of 71 degrees! Temp had plummeted to 45 degrees by 9AM. That’s a strong cold front.

  15. As far as winds and storm damage, the house was rocking last night. Winds were equal here to the storm a few weeks ago. My nearest reporting station, Willimantic, reported a wind gust close to 60mph, about the same as two weeks ago.

    Coventry once again had a list of about a dozen roads blocked by downed trees this am. I have a medium sized tree in the front of my stone wall down and resting on the wall. Lovely. It is right near the other tree that came down in the Oct 2017 storm that I never finished chopping up completely. I need to fix my chainsaw!

    We lost power overnight for a few hours but had it back this AM. Parts of the town are still without power. Schools had a two hour delay.

  16. One last note on the storm….rainfall. While it seemed like it rained a lot this week, total rain in the gauge the last 4 days was about 1″.

    Total rainfall for October = 7.35″. Very wet month. Picked up an additional 0.12″ after midnight before the front cleared.

  18. That mid-november scenario depicted by the GFS is actually plausible, to a point.

    It’s important to ignore the details and just look at the general pattern.

    It’s also important to keep in mind that the GFS has performed like trash recently.

        1. I wouldn’t say that getting 15″ of snow by Nov 15 in SNE is climatology. Getting a few minor snow events by then, sure, but that amount of snow would be anomalous.

      2. 10″1
        keep in mind that for most of this fictitious event, the snow would be light to borderline moderate at times. Not a heavy snow event by any stretch. Plus temps likely above freezing.

    1. I guess Denver may never see bare ground until further notice…or perhaps May? A White Veteran’s Day, Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Year’s, Valentines Day, etc.

      1. Definitely not Denver, they can go from 75 degrees to 10 degrees and back in the blink of an eye on the front range of the Rockies with those Chinook winds. They’ll get back up to 50 tomorrow.

        1. I always chuckle when I see Denver weather. And we are the ones who say if you don’t like the weather in New England, wait a minute.

          Thanks for sharing, Mark

      1. Not necessarily major but probably colder. What he is implying in his tweet is a strong west to east jet developing across the CONUS. That pattern usually doesn’t get us our coldest air so the tweet is a bit confusing.

        You can have a strong PV but if it remains up over northern Canada, it isn’t going to be very cold here. You need a PV split or disruption to send a lobe of the PV down here and get us really cold.

      1. First time going away to a vacation like that since she was pregnant with him . But with him in Italy at the same time we had to take advantage of the rare situation

    2. Went there on my honeymoon with my ex-wife in 2004. It has a special place in my heart 🙂

      Sue is correct, it is beautiful. We stayed at the Sandals Grande in Rodney Bay which is gorgeous. The Pitons are spectacular as well.

      There are three Sandals on the island so when you stay at one, you have access to the restaurants, pools and facilities at all three. They have shuttles that go back and forth which was nice.

      Where are you staying?

        1. Just took a peek at the resort and it looks like you are in for a treat! We have some friends from St. Lucia and they are the sweetest people. I have no doubt you will love it.

        2. You will have a blast. The all-inclusives are great. You are on the complete other tip of the island from where I stayed. Only really drove past your area on the last day on a wild cab ride to the airport, which is right near you.

          The island is very mountainous. If you leave the resort and take a cab or shuttle ride over to the west side, you’ll see what I mean. Its a rather harrowing ride!

          By the way, we did an excursion to the sulfur volcano near Soufriere one day. It smelled so bad I was literally gagging in the street. That is one excursion I would not recommend 🙂

  24. Thank you, TK. And, take good care of yourself.

    The mid November set-up looks slightly similar to mid November 1997 or 1998 (if someone can remember which year it was I’d appreciate it). In any case, I believe both years featured mostly above-normal temps in November and December. And in 1998 I recall distinctly several soakers in December. But in mid November 1997 or 98 there was a snow and sleet storm. Not a lot of snow, but a long duration event.

  26. Nothing unusual to see those first flakes of the season in early November and some years you could get accumulating snow in early November like we had back on November 7th 2012 a week after Sandy hit.

  27. Broke freezing for the first time this year. Down to 31 at my house in JP.
    I don’t give 2 shits about what the damn airport temperature was.

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