Dry Slotting

2:29AM

As the rains of overnight head off to the north, a slot of drier air will be moving in from the south today with showers ending, a clearing sky, gusty breeze, and very mild temperatures. This will be occurring as low pressure passes west of the region.

This low, like it’s predecessor, will drift northeastward and finally pass well north of the area later Friday, shifting the winds around to west and bringing in somewhat cooler air. High pressure will control the surface with a generally dry weekend expected, but some weak low pressure troughing above may promote some cloudiness, especially Saturday.

Looking ahead, a mild start to next week should be followed by a wet day around Wednesday and a transition to chilly weather at the end of the week. It is far to early to be sure if it will dry out behind the initial wet weather or we will see additional storminess.

Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Through Dawn – Episodes of showers, some heavy, and possible thunderstorms. Dawn to 10AM – Mostly to variably cloudy with a few lingering showers. After 10AM – Partly to mostly sunny. High 70-75. Wind E 5-15 MPH shifting to S and increasing to 10-20 MPH with gusts around 25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Low 50-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. High 60-65. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 44-49. Wind W 10-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. High 55-60. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 35-40. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH diminishing to calm.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. High 55-60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 41. High 64.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 65.

WEDNESDAY: Chance of rain. Low 48. High 58.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 45. High 55.

FRIDAY: Chance of rain. Low 39. High 49.

35 thoughts on “Dry Slotting”

  1. Thanks for the update, TK. I have a tennis match this evening – I’m hoping the courts dry out in Boston by then!….though I imagine I’ll have some wind to deal with. Which won’t bode well for my already ailing serve. 🙂

  2. That long range GFS is very aggravating…
    The 00z run showed what looked like different regime TK has been talking about.

    That warm sector should be passing through my area shortly, which will boost the temp and dew points.

    1. The GFS will be very unstable as we approach regime change time, don’t put much stock in it, and pay a little more attention to the Euro (though at the moment even that is having a little difficulty).

    1. Its coming. In the last 30 minutes, Marshfield has gone from a calm wind and fog….to partly sunny with a strong south wind and the temp has risen quickly.

  3. With all this fog & mist, it will be interesting now if we reach even 70. Yesterday, I did predict that we would reach 75 today, but with the gloom still around as we approach the noon hour, could very well be unlikely now. Maybe at least mid-upper 60’s?

    Also, Joe on his morning blog mentioned a major cold shot coming late next week. I see TK above is in agreement based on next Friday’s high temp…although Joe didn’t mention any chance of rain. I hope “that” part changes over time.

    1. I am concerned about a wave disturbance on a front that is not going to be far offshore, hence the chance of rain next Friday.

  4. Much more blue sky now -and the wind has picked up. I am about to go out now to do errands – haven’t been out yet – but husband says it’s beautiful out.

      1. The wind has picked up quite a bit and clouds have moved back in – talk about quick changes – the air feels great though

  5. Matt Noyes noted on Facebook that the radar echoes at mid afternoon near the Islands were probably a military chaff release near NC. Fascinating.

  6. Hmm

    12Z GFS at 216hours or Sat 10/29 at 7AM, shows some precip on the back end
    of an exiting storm system with 850 temps Near -3C. Not sure what surface temps
    would be. I am guessing around 40ish give or take a degree or 2. Could this be
    our first, should I say it, SNOW??

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=10%2F20%2F2011+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=216&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

    1. My guess is that will verify slightly faster and slightly warmer than progged on that run. That would be the wave that is causing me to add a chance of rain to next Friday’s forecast.

      1. Every time we have tried to go camping, something has caused it go awry and not happen. We are scheduled for some very late season camping that weekend, so, without any technical meteorology reasoning, I’d bet a major east coast storm with inland and high elevation snows. 🙂

  7. TK,

    Understood. Still was interesting to look at. I guess that far out anything is possible.

    12Z Euro, of course, does not have it.

    Time will tell.

    Many thanks

    1. The GFS was showing a change to snow flakes on the back side of this past storm, but instead, temps jumped well into the 60’s. So I also expect that next system to be warmer than currently shown(If it ever forms), but not to the extend of today’s warm up.
      BUT, we’ll see what happens.

  8. Scott,

    Thanks. Wasn’t watching this past one much, as I didn’t expect anything close to
    flakes. I start looking when I think there is even the slightest chance.

    So I’ll watch and then stop when it looks like all chances have gone out the window.

    Thanks again

  9. First flakes will occur in November this year. Probably sometime during the 2nd half of the month. Sooner if regime changes quickly enough. I saw evidence today that makes me think it may be delayed slightly.

        1. It has it crashing in the negative area, which makes me believe that the GFS may be onto something for later next week.

  10. Today’s high at Logan was 69. Had it not been so foggy & misty for most of the mid-late morning, my earlier prediction of 75 would have been a reality, but my recent prediction above of “upper 60’s” was on the money. Even so it turned out quite warm today overall…but so what else is new for fall 2011? (lol) 🙂

  11. Today’s CPC 14-day outlook from now through the first few days of November still has us in the “wet” regime with just slight cooling…very interesting though that temps will be well below normal in the deep south of all places.

    Could Atlanta see its first flakes before Boston this fall? hmmmm….

    1. yes….its 63F in Boston and 62F in Pensacola, FL. So, those forecasted anomolies say to me another slow moving upper level low to our west in the next 10 to 14 days bringing cool air to the south, but cut off from the polar jet way to the north, so that its not significantly cold in the northern US…..International Falls, MN is 47. Its 37F in churchill, Canada……most of Canada is not that cold. Interesting to see how long it takes for cold air to build, current ice coverage at the pole is nearing 2007 lows for this time of year.

    1. I forgot to watch…let us know what you thought about the show and if it was informative or not. Can it be watched online later on the Ch.5 website?

      1. It was just ok, some talk on global warming. If you have a dvr you may be able to watch it in a certain timeframe.

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