DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 1-5)
February arrives, and those of you who see the sun early today are the lucky ones. I was more optimistic about today’s weather on yesterday’s update than I should have been, as we’re going to see the sky overtaken by clouds today as an air flow off the ocean meets cold air holding in place. This may result in some snow grains and even patchy freezing drizzle through this evening, so watch out for some slick spots developing on untreated surfaces that are not snow covered. The air flow will switch from easterly to southerly by early Wednesday sending the temperature above freezing and ending the icing threat, but a few rain showers may occur from moisture that used to be part of a low pressure area to the south. We’ll be in a fairly mild south to southwest air flow later Wednesday into Thursday ahead of a slow moving but strong cold front. Other than the potential for a little sun over southeastern areas early on Thursday, are cloudy stretch that gets underway will continue, and rain generated by this front will move into the region from northwest to southeast as the day goes on, but may take until late-day or evening to reach southeastern locations. The part of the forecast to fine-tune is how long that precipitation will last Thursday night into Friday in relation to the arrival of colder air, which probably will mean a transition from rain to freezing rain in some areas, sleet, and eventually snow to end, with some accumulation possible. Of course, we have much model guidance disagreement, but that’s nothing new. My method will be the same as usual – avoid trying to get too detailed until the picture becomes a little bit more clear. Just plan for a wet to potentially wintry precipitation episode starting during Thursday and lasting into Friday. When we get to Saturday, we’re back to cold and dry, as whatever mess we have the days before will have pushed away offshore and a cold high pressure area will be sitting over the Great Lakes region. One except may be some Cape Cod snow showers Saturday from a cold northerly air flow over the relatively warm ocean water.
TODAY: Clouds move in. Patchy freezing drizzle and snow grains afternoon. Highs 26-33. Wind N shifting to E up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Patchy freezing drizzle, frozen drizzle, and snow grains in the evening. Temperature steady 26-33 evening, rising slowly overnight. Wind E under 10 MPH shifting to S.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain showers, favoring RI and eastern MA. Highs 38-45. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy morning but a few breaks of sun possible eastern MA and RI. Cloudy afternoon with rain arriving, especially northwest of Boston. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain likely, may change to freezing rain and sleet especially north and west of Boston. Lows 28-35. Wind shifting to N 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Cloudy with freezing rain and/or sleet mixing with or changing to snow before ending. Temperatures falling to 25-32. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers early, then clearing. Lows 10-17. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny except variably cloudy with snow showers Cape Cod. Highs 18-25. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.
DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 6-10)
Dry/cold February 6. Passing low pressure with snow/mix threat February 7. Dry/cold February 8-9. Milder with precipitation threat about February 10.
DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 11-15)
Milder trend. Unsettled weather most likely mid period.