C-19 Chat Post – February 9 2022

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 8-12)

Low pressure departs today, with rain exiting early, but low level moisture allowing cloudiness and areas of fog to linger through the morning hours, before dry air works in to break the clouds and dissipate any fog during the afternoon. An increasing wind should help to dry some of the ground off, but areas that remain wet will re-freeze tonight, so watch for redevelopment of icy patches. A small area of high pressure brings fair weather Wednesday. This high shifts offshore and we warm up a little Thursday, but a disturbance and cold front approaching from the west will bring clouds with a few showers, favoring rain, possible. Friday will be a tad cooler but fair with another small area of high pressure. That high will also shift offshore and we’ll warm up yet again for Saturday, ahead of another cold front, as a mini roller coaster ride will be ongoing.

TODAY: Cloudy morning with rain ending but areas of fog lingering. Breaking clouds afternoon with a few intervals of sun possible by late. Highs 38-45. Wind N-NW under 10 MPH this morning, NW-W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts this afternoon.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few mix/rain showers. Highs 41-48. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 21-28. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Late-day or evening rain showers possible. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 13-17)

Cold front pushes offshore and wave of low pressure moves along it which we’ll have to watch for a grazing snow chance especially for southeastern areas to end the weekend on February 13. Colder weather that arrives February 13 will continue into the start of next week with fair weather expected for Valentine’s Day and a disturbance bringing a chance of snow showers February 15. Milder by the middle of next week with possible rain showers at the end of the period with an approaching frontal system.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 18-22)

The up and down temperature pattern with no major storms expected to continue.

C-19 Chat Post – February 8 2022

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 7-11)

A low pressure system will bring unsettled weather to start the week. An inverted trough extending northward from the low will trigger some mix/snow going to rain, although it will be patchy in nature. Tonight, as the main low passes southeast of New England, a more solid batch of moisture will move through, but that atmosphere will be too mild to support snow, so it will fall in the form of rain with temperatures above freezing. Despite that, with the cold ground and cold packed snow/ice cover, there can still be some icy areas, so use caution if walking or driving. Conditions improve Tuesday as low pressure pulls away and a day that starts out wet will end up drier with some clearing by later in the day. Expect fair weather Wednesday with high pressure in control, the threat of a few rain showers with milder air Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front (with low pressure passing north of the region), then fair and slightly cooler weather Friday as high pressure builds back in.

TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain, may start as snow/mix from Boston north and west, with minor snow accumulation at most in higher elevations well northwest of Boston. Highs 33-40. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast with rain. Areas of fog. Possible icing on cold surfaces. Temperatures steady 33-40. Wind E 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain and areas of fog during the morning. Becoming partly sunny afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH morning, NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts afternoon.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few rain showers. Highs 41-48. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 12-16)

While the pattern sends two or 3 disturbances across or near the region, the overall sensible weather will be on the quiet side entering mid February. Not looking for any major storms, but most likely 1 or 2 frontal passages, between which we may need to watch for a low pressure wave passing to the south of the region. Will detail timing etc. as these days get closer.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 17-21)

Similar pattern, on the quiet side, a couple of systems that are likely minor, variable temperatures that average near to slightly above normal.

C-19 Chat Post – February 7 2022

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 6-10)

Our regional frozen tundra impression continues with a very cold morning under a mostly clear sky (except a few areas). Saturday’s gusty breeze has settled to a lighter breeze overnight, which allowed some decent radiation of whatever “heat” we had right out into space, and this morning’s 8 a.m. temperatures are just starting to recover from slightly colder lows but still sit in the single digits to lower teens above zero, a bit milder over the immediate South Shore of MA, Cape Cod, and even the tip of Cape Ann as a batch of ocean clouds and even some light snow showers have been over those areas. These clouds and snow showers will eventually push offshore today as the wind shifts more to the west, but remains fairly light, so we’ll have another cold but more tranquil day today. We’ll see some patchy clouds mainly through midday moving across northern MA and southern NH in response to a weak disturbance passing north of the region, as high pressure controls but with its center well to our south. This high pressure area will shift eastward off of the Middle Atlantic Coast tonight and early Monday, and we’ll immediately begin to feel the impact from approaching low pressure from the southwest. While this low center seems destined to take most of its impact (heaviest precipitation and strongest wind) to the south and east of New England, an inverted trough of low pressure to its north will allow precipitation to work into our region during Monday and Monday night, probably in the form of rain for many areas as the air will have warmed both at the surface and aloft, but it should be cold enough to support at least some snow with possible accumulation in the higher elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH. As the low pressure area starts to move away from the region Tuesday, colder air coming in may try to turn any rain to a mix or even brief snow before it ends, but by then the system will be pretty much a done deal so I’m not expecting much wintry precipitation impact closer to the coastline. High pressure builds in with fair and seasonably chilly weather Wednesday. Low pressure passing north of our region across eastern Canada on Thursday will send a trough and cold front through the region from west to east with some clouds and perhaps a few showers of snow and/or mixed precipitation.

TODAY: Morning clouds and a few light snow showers Cape Ann, South Shore of MA, and Cape Cod, and a few additional clouds moving across northern MA and southern NH, then generally sunny from midday on. Highs 23-30. Wind N up to 10 MPH shifting to W.

TONIGHT: Clear early, then clouding up. Lows 12-19. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mainly cloudy. Periods of rain/mix/snow arriving, mostly snow higher elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH and may start as snow/mix other areas before going to rain. Highs 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with periods of rain except snow/mix higher elevations of southwestern NH and north central MA. Snow accumulation of up to 1/2 inch in the I-95 belt from the MA/NH border to near I-90, out to near I-495, and 1/2 to 2 inches northwest of I-495 and north of I-84 / I-90 with highest amounts for highest elevations. Lows 30-37. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy morning with snow/mix ending early interior higher elevations and rain possibly ending as mix by late morning coast. Variably cloudy midday-afternoon. Highs 35-42 Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusty.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few snow/mix showers. Highs 33-40. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 11-15)

February 12 and February 14 are the days to watch for unsettled weather. Overall pattern is on the quiet side with variable temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 16-20)

Seasonable to slightly milder than normal temperatures with a fairly quiet weather pattern expected.

C-19 Chat Post – February 6 2022

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 5-9)

A taste of the tundra this weekend as the region is coated in a variety of ice and will be cold and dry. The exception to the “dry” will be the light snow that lingers across Cape Cod this morning, and a few more snow showers may catch the outer Cape a bit later due to a cold northwest wind blowing over relatively warmer water. The gusty weather of today will settle for a more tranquil Sunday, but outside of treated surfaces and locations that get a lot of direct sun, the ice isn’t going anywhere for the next couple of days as we stay well below freezing most of the time. High pressure slips offshore and we turn milder to start the week. Low pressure will then follow this, passing southeast of New England late Monday through Tuesday, but close enough to bring some light rain and snow to the region. High pressure returns with fair weather by Wednesday.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy with light snow Cape Cod morning then variably cloudy there with a few snow showers outer Cape Cod this afternoon. Elsewhere, cloud/sun mix. Highs 18-25. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows -3 to +2 rural and suburban areas, 3-10 Boston, South Shore, and South Coast. Wind N 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-19. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun gives way to clouds. Chance of light mix/rain favoring southern areas later in the day. Highs 33-40. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain/mix. Temperature steady 33-40. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain/mix/snow, favoring southeastern areas in the morning. Highs 35-42. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 10-14)

Seasonable to mild and dry early period, briefly unsettled mid period, shot of colder air later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 15-19)

Seasonable to slightly milder than normal temperatures with a fairly quiet weather pattern expected.

C-19 Chat Post – February 5 2022

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 4-8)

It’s Flash-Freeze-Friday February Fourth! A whole lot of F’s there, and a few other words that start with that letter may come from people’s mouths before today is over, regarding the weather. The anticipated temperature drop is ongoing now from north to south and will continue during the day, with the sharpest drop coming with the passage of a cold front and then a more gradual drop to follow. This is causing rain to turn to freezing rain and sleet from north to south, a process that will continue during the morning and midday hours, resulting in slippery travel conditions developing (also watch for some road flooding from some heavier rainfall that has been occurring for the last few hours leading up to dawn). As precipitation comes to an end later this afternoon and this evening, some areas may get a small accumulation of snow atop the ice, especially north and west of Boston, but snow won’t be a big deal. We stay cold with icy ground through the coming weekend with dry weather continuing and a bit of a temperature moderation by Monday. Watching low pressure to pass south of the region Monday night into Tuesday, probably far enough to have little or no impact on the region.

TODAY: Overcast with rain transitioning to freezing rain & sleet north to south morning, continuing afternoon, tapering off later in the day. Glazing of ice on some surfaces due to flash freeze and some freezing rain, and accumulation of sleet a coating to as much as 1 inch. Temperatures starting out ranging from the lower to middle 30s southern NH and northern MA to near 50 South Coast, falling to the 20s except lower 30s South Coast. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers early. Icy ground. Lows 10-17. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Early clouds then mostly sunny except variably cloudy with snow showers Cape Cod. Icy ground. Highs 18-25. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Icy ground. Lows -3 to +2 rural and suburban areas, 3-10 Boston, South Shore, and South Coast. Wind N 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Icy ground but slight improvement. Highs 25-32. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Areas of icy ground. Lows 12-19. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun and high clouds. Areas of icy ground. Highs 28-35. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 16-23. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Brief rain/snow possible South Coast. Highs 30-37. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 9-13)

Overall quiet pattern with more seasonable temperatures. Best chance of unsettled weather comes later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 14-18)

Seasonable to slightly milder than normal temperatures with a fairly quiet weather pattern expected.

C-19 Chat Post – February 4 2022

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 3-7)

By the end of today, the vast majority of the snow that fell in the recent blizzard will be gone, having been eaten away by mild air, and eventually some rainfall. It’s not going to be the type of rainfall that causes a lot of flooding as it was a generally low water content snow, so other than in some poor drainage areas, we’re going to avoid an issue with the start of our next unsettled weather event. What we are not going to avoid is a quick temperature drop early Friday and a messy, slippery result. After around an inch or so of rainfall from later today through tonight into the early hours of Friday, a sharp cold front will pass through from northwest to southeast, and the temperature will drop very quickly as the boundary passes, creating a flash freeze. This will be a situation you cannot really pre-treat for, because the rain would wash that away. So crews will have to act quickly when the temperature goes down. As for precipitation, we’ll see a transition from rain to freezing rain and/or sleet as the boundary goes by each area, the precipitation type to be determined by the thickness of the low level cold air. I think that it goes quickly to sleet the further north you are, with a longer period of freezing rain to the south before transition to sleet. The freezing rain areas will see additional ice accretion on surfaces, whereas areas that are sleeting will see an accumulation of ice pellets of a coating to about 1 inch maximum. A transition to snow will occur in southern NH and north central MA with up to an inch or so of snow atop everything else and a transition to snow will take place further south at least into areas mostly north of I-90 late in the precipitation with a coating of snow possible atop everything else. The end of the precipitation should beat the conditions that would cause snow to occur further to the south. After we dry out later Friday and Friday night through Saturday as the front moves away and high pressure moves into the Great Lakes, it will be quite cold, so icy surfaces that are not treated will remain so for quite some time. Watch for gradual improvement Sunday as we get a slight temperature moderation and some help from bright sunshine, which is starting to be noticeably higher in angle. Look for continued fair weather and a little more temperature moderation and improvement of icy ground Monday as high pressure dominates the weather and low pressure passes far south of our area.

TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Scattered to numerous rain showers, favoring areas west and north of Boston, midday through afternoon hours. Highs 45-52, occurring late-day. Wind SW increasing to 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with rain and areas of fog. Temperatures steady 45-52 evening, falling slightly overnight. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with transition from rain/ice to sleet/snow from northwest to southeast. Snow/sleet accumulation 1-3 inches southern NH and north central MA, up to 1 inch south central MA through northeastern MA, coatings at most southeastern MA and RI but these areas may also have a glaze from falling freezing rain. Icy ground all areas from a rapid temperature drop to the 20s from north to south during the morning then remaining in the 20s afternoon. Wind shifting to N-NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers early, then clearing. Icy ground. Lows 10-17. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny except variably cloudy with snow showers Cape Cod. Icy ground. Highs 18-25. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Icy ground. Lows 0-7. Wind N 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Icy ground but slight improvement. Highs 25-32. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Areas of icy ground. Lows 12-19. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun and high clouds. Areas of icy ground. Highs 28-35. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 8-12)

Low pressure passes south of the region early in the period and another disturbance approaches late in the period with shots at unsettled weather. Overall though it looks like a fairly quiet pattern with some temperature variability, averaging close to normal for the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 13-17)

Milder trend. Unsettled weather most likely early in the period.

C-19 Chat Post – February 3 2022

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 2-6)

Did you see your shadow? Here on Woods Hill, I was hauling recycle bins to the curb as the sun came up this morning, and I definitely did not see one. I’m not sure what that means, other than it’s cloudy right now. And we will continue to see that mostly grey sky today as milder, augmented with some ocean moisture and some leftover moisture from dissipated low pressure to the south, moves its way up across our region today. A few rain showers that used to be part of that low may make their way northward across southeastern MA today while the remainder of the region stays rain-free. Snow melt will accelerate but still be rather modest, but will pick up the pace tonight into Thursday as continue to see mild air advected into the region. An approaching strong but slow-moving cold front Thursday will increase the rain chance as we go through the day, first to the north and west of Boston, eventually through the Boston area and southeastward. As the front goes by, cold air will get in at low levels before it does above us, and a wave of low pressure will ripple along the front to prolong the precipitation Thursday night and through much of Friday. We’ll see a transition from rain to freezing rain and sleet (depending on the depth of the cold air) from northwest to southeast during the morning hours Friday, though liquid rain may persist at the South Coast as the temperature holds above freezing for several hours, but eventually there we likely see at least pockets of freezing rain and sleet. The air at all levels will become cold enough to support snow eventually, first across southern NH and north central MA where we have the greatest chance to see enough snow accumulation to have to shovel and/or plow. The further southeast you go, the later snow will occur and the less moisture will be available to produce it, so accumulation will be minor at best, but the real issue will be slippery ground from freezing rain (especially) and sleet. And even after the precipitation ends, the temperature will continue to drop so anything unfrozen will freeze as well, and remain with us into the weekend despite dry weather, as it will be cold. The one exception will be the potential for some Cape Cod snow showers due to cold northerly air flow over the relatively warmer water. P.S. As I wrote this, Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow down in PA, which according to him means six more weeks of winter! A fun tradition. Adding a little science to it: Phil sees his shadow 85% of the time and his “prediction” is somewhat true on 39% of the time. We’ll see how it goes this year. 😉

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers, favoring southeastern MA. Highs 38-45. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy morning but a few breaks of sun possible eastern MA and RI. Cloudy afternoon with rain arriving, especially northwest of Boston. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain likely, may change to freezing rain and sleet especially north and west of Boston. Lows 28-35 northwest, 35-42 southeast. Wind shifting to N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with transition from rain/ice to sleet/snow from northwest to southeast. Best chance of over 1 inch of snow southern NH and north central MA. Minor sleet accumulation. Areas of glazing due to freezing rain with the most significant icing potential near and south of I-90 afternoon. Temperatures falling to 25-32. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers early, then clearing. Lows 10-17. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny except variably cloudy with snow showers Cape Cod. Highs 18-25. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 0-7. Wind N 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 7-11)

Passing low pressure brings a threat of snow/mix February 7 and snow/mix/rain threat February 10. Mostly dry weather and mostly seasonable chilly weather otherwise.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 12-16)

Milder trend. Unsettled weather most likely early in the period.

C-19 Chat Post – February 2 2022