C-19 Chat Post – March 26 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 25-29)

“Hey! Where’s my 70 degrees?!” I’ll hear this somewhere online or in person this morning. I can almost guarantee it. But I’m going to take this opportunity for this reminder. A TV or weather app icon may show you a number, but an icon can’t add value to a forecast. It can’t tell you that today dawns with overcast, areas of fog, scattered rainfall, and temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s. It can’t tell you that the conditions were expected to start out that way because we’re still in the cool air mass ahead of a warm front. It isn’t going to explain to you that it takes time for that frontal boundary to move across the region, but it will do so. It’s definitely not going to tell you that once it does cross the region that the clouds associated with it may not completely break up and clear out until later morning or even very early afternoon. It’s certainly not going to tell you that the clouds may be rather stubborn to clear out at all over some South Coast locations, especially Cape Cod, where they are surrounded by water relatively cold compared to the incoming air mass. And depending on how good your app is, no icon is going to explain that coastal areas may never even get close to 70 today because the air flow will be from the east and may even shift to northerly for a short time there thanks to a very weak low pressure wave on the front, and then will be weak enough to allow the development of sea breezes near the shoreline of the region. But all of those tidbits are true, and I hope they added some value to your expectation of today’s weather. So now we can move onto tonight and beyond, and a more conventional description: Low pressure parenting the warm front that crosses the region today will pass north of our area tonight and early Friday and drag a cold front through the region with an episode of rain showers, but it will take until evening for this front to clear the entire area, so we’ll spend much of the day still in the warm sector, although much winder due to a much tighter pressure gradient thanks to that low pressure area intensifying as it passes. A low pressure trough will pass by in the evening introducing colder air to the region. So our weekend will start chilly and breezy Saturday with some passing clouds, but that day will turn sunnier and less windy as high pressure moves in and the pressure gradient relaxes. This sets up a quick temperature drop off Saturday evening with mostly clear sky and light wind to start, but this temperature drop will be thwarted by the quick advance of cloudiness, which will act as a blanket, ahead of the next low pressure system. This system will be a small but rather potent low moving through the Great Lakes, sending an occluded front our way likely resulting in a solid band of rainfall arriving during the midday hours of Sunday and continuing until the evening as a secondary low starts to form over the region just as the low starts to pull away. As the new low center becomes the dominant one and pulls off toward the Canadian Maritimes, it will cause us a period of windy and colder weather Monday with the potential for a few passing rain and/or snow showers and a reminder that winter left us not all that long ago…

TODAY: Overcast through mid morning with areas of fog and drizzle and additional areas of rain tapering off from west to east. Breaking clouds west to east late morning followed by clearing with sun dominant this afternoon, except clouds hanging on closer to the South Coast especially over Cape Cod. Highs ranging widely from near 50 Cape Cod & Islands to near 60 other coastal areas where it may cool back to the 50s during the afternoon to 70-77 away from coastal areas, warmest in interior valley locations. Wind E to variable under 10 MPH this morning shifting to SW around 10 MPH midday on but coastal sea breezes developing.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Cloudy overnight with rain showers arriving. Lows 48-55. Wind SW up to 10 MPH evening, S 5-15 MPH overnight.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with episodes of rain showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm through mid afternoon. Variably cloudy late-day. Highs 50-57 Cape Cod & Islands, 58-65 remainder of South Coast and interior southeastern MA, Cape Ann MA, and most of interior RI, 66-73 elsewhere. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W late.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind W 15-25 MPH gusts 35-45 MPH, shifting to NW.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix morning. Sunny with a few high clouds afternoon. Highs 53-60. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts morning, diminishing afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 36-43 evening, may rise slowly overnight. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming SE.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Patchy fog/drizzle morning. Rain arriving west to east by midday continuing thereafter. Highs 46-53. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with areas of fog and lingering rain possible evening. Breaking clouds overnight. Lows 36-43. Wind shifting to N and increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Lots of clouds / intervals of sun. A passing light rain and / or snow shower possible. Highs 41-48. Wind N 15-25 MPH and gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 30 – APRIL 3)

High pressure moves in with fair weather for the last couple of days of March, coolest March 30, milder March 31. A slow-moving cold front approaches April 1 and takes its time departing the region April 2 with a period of unsettled weather. High pressure moves in with fair weather by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 4-8)

Leaning toward the idea of high pressure centered to the south of New England with dry and milder to warmer weather to start this period, but we’ll have to watch a boundary to the north with colder air on the other side, which may drift down and bring cooler and potentially eventually unsettled weather to the region toward middle and latter portions of this period.

C-19 Chat Post – March 25 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 24-28)

Our stretch of pleasant days is behind us and now it’s time for some of the unsettled weather that spring is also known for. One low pressure that has been hanging around the US Southeast Coast is lifting out to the northeast now and will add a little bit of its moisture and air flow to our atmosphere ahead of a warm front, which is parented by a stronger low pressure area heading east northeastward from the Great Lakes to the St. Lawrence Valley, passing well north of our area through Thursday. First, the southern low / warm front combo will increase the cloudiness today and lead to a period of rain later this evening. The weakness of the low and its progression will allow the warm front to make it through, and put us nicely into the warm sector behind it on Thursday. The cold front trailing from the St. Lawrence Valley low leads to another low pressure area that will be intensifying as it heads into the Great Lakes. This will keep us in the warm air into Friday morning when a cold front trailing from the Great Lakes low will come through – rain showers ahead of it, drying behind it during Friday, although that will still be a fairly mild day as, typically for our area, the colder air will wait until a secondary trough passes through to really get into the region Friday night. This sets up a cooler and breezy but dry day Saturday between that departing low (which also exits via the St. Lawrence Valley / Canadian Maritimes) and high pressure in the Great Lakes. This high will come eastward across the region allowing for a chilly Saturday night, which probably would end up even colder if not for increasing clouds ahead of the next low pressure area. This low will also travel through the Great Lakes and pass north of our area, but will be an occluding system and moving fairly quickly, likely to bring wet weather back for a short but notable visit during Sunday. Weekend or not, we do need rain.

TODAY: Patchy fog early morning. Partial sun then becoming cloudy. Highs 49-56, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Periods of rain mid evening through overnight. Lows 41-48. Wind SE up to 10 MPH shifting to SW.

THURSDAY: Lingering rain or drizzle with patchy fog possible early morning, otherwise cloudy to start then increasing sun southwest to northeast, but clouds may linger near the South Coast and Cape Cod. Highs 49-54 Islands / Cape Cod, 57-64 remainder of South Coast, 65-72 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Cloudy overnight with rain showers arriving. Lows 48-55. SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with areas of fog and rain showers likely until mid morning, then mostly to variably cloudy with a passing rain shower possible. Highs 48-55 Islands & Cape Cod, 56-63 remainder of South Coast and southeastern MA as well Cape Ann, 63-70 elsewhere. Wind S 10-20 MPH with gusts 25-35 MPH shifting to W.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a possible rain shower early, then clearing. Lows 38-45. Wind W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 53-60. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing high clouds. Lows 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely midday-afternoon. Highs 46-53. Wind SE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to W late.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 29 – APRIL 2)

Windy/colder possible rain or snow showers March 29 in the wake of intensifying but departing low pressure. High pressure moves in with fair weather for the last 2 days of March, starting chilly then moderating. Uncertainty to start April but a slower-moving frontal system may bring unsettled weather at some point during the first 2 days of the new month.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 3-7)

Confidence lowers this far out but high pressure should be in control with fair weather and a warming trend to start, followed by unsettled and cooling weather.

C-19 Chat Post – March 24 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 23-27)

One more very nice day in our four-day stretch of fabulous March weather. Once again with high pressure over us and a light wind, we’ll see sea breeze development keeping the coast cooler while inland areas warm nicely. But let’s face reality: This is New England and this is March. You know this isn’t going to last, and it’s not. Changes are coming, and it starts as an often-seen springtime cut off low to our south lifts out and adds moisture in the form of cloudiness to our sky as a warm front approaches from the west Wednesday. While any rainfall from the low to the south stays mostly offshore, a bit of a link between that and the warm front does produce a period of two of rainfall from Wednesday evening into Wednesday night. Wednesday itself will be a cooler day with a more general onshore gradient wind flow and extensive cloud cover, but we’ll bust into the warm sector on Thursday when all areas see a nice southwesterly wind. This will help much of the region warm to levels that feel more like mid to late spring, but at this time of the year the water temperatures mean that a southwesterly wind is going to keep the South Coast, especially Cape Cod, much cooler, and there may also be more cloudiness down that way as a result of the warm and relatively more humid air passing over that water. As a cold front approaches and passes through the region during Friday, we’ll start in the warm air but see lots of clouds and increasing rain shower activity from west to east as the front nears. Behind that front, which will be parented by strengthening low pressure passing to the north of the region, a shot of breezy and cooler air arrives for Saturday, but it will be a dry day to start the final weekend of the month.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 52-59 coast, 60-67 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 36-43. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 49-56, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Periods of rain. Lows 41-48. Wind SE up to 10 MPH shifting to SW.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny except mostly cloudy at times South Coast region. Highs 49-54 Islands / Cape Cod, 57-64 remainder of South Coast, 65-72 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 48-55. SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely, especially during the afternoon. Highs 48-55 Islands & Cape Cod, 56-63 remainder of South Coast and southeastern MA as well Cape Ann, 63-70 elsewhere. Wind SW to S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 38-45. Wind W 15-25 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 53-60. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 28 – APRIL 1)

The back half of the last weekend of March look unsettled as low pressure approaches and moves in from the southwest with some beneficial rain potential for March 28, that may start out as a rain/sleet mix over some interior areas if enough cold air gets in just before the system arrives. With much colder air nearby, we have to watch the track and evolution of this low as it may not end cleanly as just rain on March 29, but with the potential for some mix/snow involved as well. This low may also be slow to move away with a bit of an atmospheric roadblock in place, and this should result in a windy/colder ending to the month with even a reinforcing shot of cold air possibly arriving and lasting through the first day of April. There are some notable differences in the various guidance out that far so will re-evaluate this going forward.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 2-6)

Going to be near boundary of Canadian cold and US Mid Atlantic warmth. You know what that means. Uncertain temperature forecast made even more complicated by the ocean water temperatures. Also the potential for a couple rounds of unsettled weather is certainly there. Not even going to try to venture anything day-to-day this far in advance. Stay tuned…

C-19 Chat Post – March 23 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 22-26)

High pressure sits atop New England early this week, continuing the very nice weather stretch that we started over the weekend. Once again the coastal areas will be cooler each day due to a sea breeze developing, and each night the inland lower elevations will be colder due to radiational cooling. High pressure partially gives way Wednesday as low pressure passes south of the region and a warm front approaches from the southwest ahead of another low pressure area heading for the Great Lakes, resulting in a general increase in cloudiness and a southeasterly air flow which will keep the region more uniform in temperature, the result being a cooler day for inland areas that won’t be able to warm as efficiently as the next 2 days. The warm front may bring a touch of light rain Wednesday evening as it passes and opens the door to a warmer southwesterly air flow for Thursday. Although this air flow will result in cooler conditions for the South Coast, especially Cape Cod and the Islands. The low heading into the Great Lakes will be passing north of our area Thursday night and Friday, dragging a cold front through when we will see our best chance for rain shower activity. We need rain as we have had a very dry March so far. However, this does not look like it will be a very significant rain producer. What it will do is introduce a cooler air mass later Friday – with the temperatures that day highly dependent on the timing of the cold front. The air behind it will probably be cold enough to allow a mix or snow should any precipitation linger long enough, but at the moment this is not very likely to occur – more of a remote possibility.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 50-57 coast, 58-65 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 33-40. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 50-57 coast, 58-65 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing high clouds. Lows 36-43. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 49-56, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain. Lows 41-48. Wind SE up to 10 MPH shifting to SW.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 48-55 Islands / Cape Cod, 56-63 remainder of South Coast, 64-71 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Highs 57-64, may fall quickly late-day / evening. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW by late-day.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 27-31)

Early call on the last weekend of March (27-28) looks dry/cool Saturday, still on the cool side but watching for the arrival of low pressure from the southwest Sunday. As this system moves through into March 29 we’ll have to watch closely as cold air will be nearby so there is a slight chance we’ll be dealing with a rain/snow line somewhere, but leaning toward a rain event for now. Rain or snow, any precipitation we can get is needed. Dry/chilly ending to March (30-31).

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 1-5)

The trend in the early days of April is for a warm-up that may not really take hold until later in the period as we’ll be near the border of Canadian cold while US Southeast warmth tries to push in. It may be unsettled during the transition.

C-19 Chat Post – March 22 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 21-25)

This first full day of spring will feel like it – sunshine, chilly start, warming up most efficiently inland, warm-up thwarted at the coast by sea breeze. This will repeat tomorrow and Tuesday too as high pressure sits on us. This high pressure area will give way to an approaching warm front on Wednesday when clouds will increase, but it may not be much of a rainfall producer as it comes through that evening / night. What it will likely do is set us up for our warmest day regionwide (except South Coast modification) with a stronger southwesterly air flow on Thursday as we’ll be in a warm sector post warm front and pre cold front (which will be well to our west).

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 48-55 coast, 56-63 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog interior lower elevations. Lows 33-40. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 48-55 coast, 56-63 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog interior lower elevations. Lows 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 49-56 coast, 57-64 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear then increasing high clouds. Patchy ground fog interior lower elevations. Lows 36-43. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain by late-day or evening. Highs 48-55. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain. Lows 41-48. Wind SE up to 10 MPH shifting to SW.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52 Islands / Cape Cod, 53-60 remainder of South Coast, 61-68 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 26-30)

Low pressure passing north of the region drags a cold front through with rain showers likely March 26. Timing of systems becomes difficult out this far but best guess now is we have a mainly dry March 27-28 weekend, starting chilly and ending milder, though some guidance has suggested unsettled weather arriving before the end of the weekend so there is a little uncertainty there. March 29 looks like transition time with unsettled weather, leading to a drier but colder March 30.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 31 – APRIL 4)

(No change from yesterday.) Based on current anticipated timing of systems and being near the border of a mild US Southeast and a cold eastern Canada, expecting a dry but chilly finish to March and a warming trend the first few days of April marked by some unsettled weather during the transition.

C-19 Chat Post – March 21 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 20-24)

The Vernal Equinox occurred at 5:37 a.m. .. Spring is here! You know I always warn about thinking any threat of winter weather is over just because spring arrives. Well, we won’t worry about any winter weather threats right now because even though we know what late March & April can do to us here, we have a nice weather pattern to start off the new season as high pressure moves in today and sits atop New England for several days, through Tuesday in fact. Today’s temperatures will be most uniform across the region due to a westerly air flow. Sunday through Tuesday, warmest weather will be inland during the day while coastal areas are cooler due to sea breeze development. Nights will be chilly due to radiational cooling from the combination of clear sky and light wind, though we may see some ground fog formation in lower elevations each night as the temperature makes a run for the dewpoint during its overnight fall. By Wednesday, an increase in clouds and a more regional southeasterly air flow ahead of a warm front will likely make this a cooler-feeling day, and there may be some light rainfall around later in the day or in the evening as the warm front arrives.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 26-33. Wind W under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 48-55 coast, 56-63 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog interior lower elevations. Lows 33-40. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 48-55 coast, 56-63 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog interior lower elevations. Lows 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 49-56 coast, 57-64 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear then increasing high clouds. Patchy ground fog interior lower elevations. Lows 36-43. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain by late-day or evening. Highs 48-55. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 25-29)

Warmest day except cooler South Coast March 25 ahead of a cold front, the parent low pressure of which passes north of the region late March 25 and early March 26 when a better shot of rain occurs, before it turns breezy, colder, and dry later March 26. High pressure brings mostly fair weather, a cool start then moderating temperatures in the March 27-28 period before the next disturbance brings a chance of unsettled weather by March 29.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 30 – APRIL 3)

Based on current anticipated timing of systems and being near the border of a mild US Southeast and a cold eastern Canada, expecting a drier but chilly finish to March and a warming trend the first few days of April marked by some unsettled weather during the transition.

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C-19 Chat Post – March 20 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 19-23)

When I drew up my “1/2 to 2 inch” snowfall forecast thinking that was conservative enough two days in advance (undercutting many other forecasts), it still was not enough to be accurate. That’s one aspect of trying to predict the future. It just doesn’t always pan out exactly how you think. And even now, so much scrutiny is placed on a forecast involving snowfall amounts, more so than temperature, or wind speed, or any other parameter, that “everybody is watching” and waiting for you to be incorrect. Sure, the forecast deserves criticism as anything is subject to it, as long as it’s fair criticism. The forecast was wrong, because the precipitation outran the cold air overnight, so by the time it was snowing, or almost time to snow, it was drying out. Most of us were off by a couple of hours in arrival of cold air vs. end of precipitation timing. The cold air was just a touch slower getting in than most forecasts, and the precipitation was just a touch quicker existing than most of us guessed. Therefore, most areas just saw a few flakes and basically no accumulation, except closer to the South Coast where some coatings have occurred. Had this been a situation with just rain and now possible switch to snow, nobody would really have noticed. That’s what I mean by higher level of scrutiny due to this odd obsession we have with frozen stuff vs. liquid stuff. Anyway, any remaining snowfall near the South Coast will be ending soon, and probably over by the time most people read this. But regardless, we needed whatever moisture fell as we’ve been dry all month after a minor event on March 1. After one windy and chilly day today, we have a string of nicer days ahead, just in time for the start of spring (Vernal Equinox Saturday at 5:37 a.m.) as high pressure builds in over the weekend and holds into early next week. After somewhat uniformly cool air Saturday, the Sunday-Tuesday period will see inland areas warm up most each day while the coast is cooler.

TODAY: Any South Coast snow ends early, otherwise clouds give way to sun. Highs 36-43. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing to 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 52-59, but cooler eastern coastal areas. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 32-39. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 53-60 except cooler coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 55-62 except cooler coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 24-28)

March 24 may turn unsettled as low pressure drifts up from the south and a disturbance arrives from the west, bringing the chance for some rainfall. High pressure should bring dry weather March 25-27 with initially cooler weather then moderating temperatures. Next disturbance may bring the chance for unsettled weather by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 29 – APRIL 2)

As usual trying to time anything more than 10 days in advance is nearly impossible, but while 1 or 2 disturbances may threaten with some unsettled weather in the final days of March and very start of April, the general pattern is still looking on the drier side with near to above normal temperatures on average, but variations day to day.

C-19 Chat Post – March 19 2021