C-19 Chat Post – September 14 2020

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 13-17)

Discussion…

A southerly air flow is sending increased low level moisture into the region today, and has been evident by an abundance of low clouds this morning. However, these clouds have come with enough spaces between to make it a partly sunny morning, which is exactly the wording used in today’s forecast from yesterday’s blog, and this will continue this afternoon as well, though the amount of cloud cover may vary from place to place. This more humid southerly flow is taking place in advance of a cold front, which is going to cross the region tonight with a band of heavier cloudiness but little in the way of any rainfall. Behind the front, it will take a little bit of time for the cooler air to arrive, waiting for a secondary trough Monday evening, so Monday itself will turn out to be a warmer day than today for many areas. You’ll notice a definite feel of fall Tuesday, even though it’s still technically summer. And that more summertime feel will be making a return during the middle of the week as high pressure sinks south of the region and we get into a warmer west to southwesterly air flow.

Details…

THIS AFTERNOON: Partly sunny. Highs 71-78. Dew point rising to near 60. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing shower possible. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Lots of clouds early, then sun returning. Highs 73-80. Dew point falling middle 60s to upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 48-55. Dew point falling to 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Dew point 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 45-52. Dew point lower 40s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 70-77. Dew point rising to lower 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 55-62. Dew point middle 50s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80. Dew point upper 50s to 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 18-22)

A cold front passes by early September 18 followed by a push of drier air. Remnant moisture from a Gulf of Mexico tropical system will be passing by south of the region around September 19 so that will be something to watch, just in case it ends up a little further north and threatens the region with some unsettled weather, but at the moment I expect a miss and dry weather to dominate for the balance of this time period. Temperatures for the entire period averaging near to above normal but a cooler interlude around mid period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 23-27)

Watching the September 24-26 window for possible rainfall that may be potentially associated with some moisture from the tropics. Far from anything certain. Just a period to watch.

C-19 Chat Post – September 13 2020

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 12-16)

Discussion…

A very brief discussion so you can get out and enjoy great weekend weather! Our only chance of “rain”, really a brief shower if anything, comes Sunday night as a cold front passes. Otherwise it’s high pressure in control with dry weather for the next 5 days. The coolest days will be today and Tuesday.

Details…

TODAY: Sunny except a few passing clouds Cape Ann, South Shore, Cape Cod for a while this morning. Highs 65-72. Dew point rising to near 50. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 53-60. Dew point rising through 50s. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 71-78. Dew point rising to near 60. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing shower possible. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Lots of clouds early, then sun returning. Highs 73-80. Dew point falling middle 60s to upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 48-55. Dew point falling to 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Dew point 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 45-52. Dew point lower 40s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 67-74. Dew point near 50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 17-21)

A cold front, current timing for early September 18, brings the only chance of any rainfall, and it will be a brief risk, otherwise high pressure continues to be dominant with dry weather and some temperature ups and downs, but overall temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 22-26)

Dry weather continues to start this period then we watch for the risk of some rainfall during the September 24-26 window.

C-19 Chat Post – September 12 2020

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 11-15)

Discussion…

The tropical air mass that helped trigger some downpours yesterday is being pushed out of the region now as a cold front moves off to the south and high pressure begins to build in. It will be a transition day as we start with a lot of cloudiness and still somewhat high humidity, but the dry air will be moving in from north to south and the feel of the air will be vastly different by later today than it felt early this morning. The high pressure area that moves in will also be responsible for dry weather most of the weekend, holding off the next shower threat from an approaching cold front until Sunday night. Another dry air mass arrives early next week as a repeating pattern brings another Canadian high pressure area in.

Details…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy morning including pockets of drizzle. Increasing sun north to south afternoon. Highs 65-72. Dew point falling to 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH

TONIGHT: Clear. Areas of ground fog in low elevation areas (valleys, swamps, bogs). Lows 43-50. Dew point lower 40s. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 65-72. Dew point rising to near 50. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 53-60. Dew point rising through 50s. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 71-78. Dew point rising to near 60. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Lots of clouds early, then partly cloudy. Highs 73-80. Dew point falling middle 60s to upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 48-55. Dew point falling to 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Dew point 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 16-20)

One high pressure area sits over the region September 16 then sinks to the south and will be replaced by another from Canada by the end of the period. Between these a frontal boundary will cross the region sometime September 18 and may delay its departure for a time September 19, bringing our only shot at unsettled weather during this 5-day period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 21-25)

Overall pattern generally features zonal west to east flow at upper levels, high pressure in control most of the time with moisture-starved fronts providing air mass changes. We need to continue to eye the Atlantic for tropical activity as well.

C-19 Chat Post – September 11 2020

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 10-14)

Discussion…

In a drought, a modest rain event is a “big” rain event I guess. Given the pre-chatter about the one coming up today, you’d think we were about to get a flooding deluge. Well, that may not be entirely that far from the truth. However, a deluge over a relatively small percentage of the area for a relatively short amount of time, most of which runs off into the drainage system, is not going to do a whole lot to fix your drought situation. That is what we’ll be dealing with for the most part. But the rain may be heavy enough, in localized areas, to cause flooding. This renders the often-said phrase “any rain is welcomed rain” somewhat false. We’ll see how much that ends up applying today and this evening as a semi-feeble tongue of tropical moisture becomes the transfer point for the energy of a cold front heading southeastward into New England. It’s entirely possible that this energy transfer not only takes the legs (and ability to produce significant showers) away from the approaching front but then puts the new rainfall so far to the south that it barely hits the South Coast before departing. I’m opting for a scenario a little less dramatic than that, and this forecast will call for showers and maybe a band or 2 of downpours in a few locations from about mid afternoon to mid evening. Regardless of how many showers are on the frontal boundary itself, that boundary will indeed push through here tonight, and while some cloudiness may linger into the day Friday behind it, it will clear out and we’ll be in an entirely different, refreshing Canadian air mass, making the bulk of Friday feel different than today will. And this is good timing if you want dry weather for the weekend, because you’ll get dry weather for most of it, certainly Saturday as high pressure moves right over the region. On Sunday as the high slips offshore and it starts to become more humid, along with more cloudiness, we’ll have another front approaching, but over the last several days I’ve noted a slightly slower and weaker trend with this system, and I still feel this is the case, so that shower activity will be later in the day and evening and limited. Another batch of drier air will arrive behind this front by Monday.

Details…

TODAY: Mainly cloudy. Showers most likely near the South Coast this morning. Scattered to general showers anywhere during this afternoon. Any showers may be heavy and a few thunderstorms are also possible. Highs 73-80. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely with slight chance of thunderstorms evening. A lingering shower possible overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point falling from near 70 to middle 60s. Wind shifting from S to W to N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy start including a slight risk of a passing light shower. Sun and passing clouds by late morning on. Temperatures steady 63-70. Dew point falling from middle 60s into the 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Areas of ground fog lowest elevations. Lows 43-50. Dew point falling into 40s. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 65-72. Dew point near 50. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 53-60. Dew point rising through 50s. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny morning. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers afternoon, favoring late-day. Highs 71-78. Dew point rising to lower 60s. Wind SE to SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Temperatures steady 63-70. Dew point falling from lower 60s to upper 40s. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 15-19)

A large area of high pressure will govern the weather for a few days here, with us on the northwesterly air flow side and cooler/drier September 15, then as the high slips to the south we warm up September 16 and 17, but another cold front, based on current timing, comes through without much rainfall but a shift back to cooler/drier for the end of the period as a new, even larger high pressure area builds in from Canada.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 20-24)

Overall pattern generally features zonal west to east flow at upper levels, high pressure in control most of the time with moisture-starved fronts providing air mass changes. On other words, the same overall pattern. However, as previously stated, we do need to keep an eye out for any tropical activity off of or approaching the East Coast.

C-19 Chat Post – September 10 2020

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 9-13)

High humidity does more than make the air feel sticky. This morning it has a lot of the region enshrouded in fog and low clouds, which will dissipate as the sun climbs higher into the sky. However some of the low cloudiness may hang on longer in some valley and coastal areas as the temperature / dew point stay closer together lower in those locations. Also, a fan of higher cloudiness above will limit the sun’s power so the process may be slower anyway. The bottom line is that today will not be as sunny a day as yesterday was. Also, other than parts of far southern New England under a blanket of clouds late yesterday, some may have noticed a hazier appearance to the sky later yesterday leading to an atypical sky hue at sunset. That was caused by smoke in high altitudes from western US wildfires. This is not highly unusual at all for our region during fire seasons of both Canada and the western US, and we will probably see more of this in the weeks ahead. But getting back to local weather, the high humidity will be hanging around through Thursday. I am going to undercut guidance rainfall coverage and numbers and just go for a few areas of showers during the day Thursday, favoring areas south of I-90, and a broken to scattered band of showers and possible thunderstorms that crosses the region from northwest to southeast at the end of the day and early at night from a cold front passing through the region. This will put an end to the higher humidity for a couple days, along with bringing cooler air into the region for Friday and Saturday. While clouds may linger Friday morning, especially for southern areas, expect plenty of sun to eventually dominate and another mainly sunny day Saturday – great for late summer outdoor activities. By Sunday, the humidity comes back a little bit as we are on the “return-flow” side of high pressure and another frontal system approaches from the west. Once again I believe a lot of our computer guidance may be overdoing the rainfall potential here, and also moving the front in a little too quickly, so my forecast will reflect weaker and slower timing – basically Sunday looks not-too-bad to me at the moment. But I can’t say I have the highest confidence in that forecast so please check for updates.

TODAY: Fog and low clouds for many areas to start, then mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 75-82, coolest South Coast. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SE to S increasing to 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point lower 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers possible favoring areas south of I-90 through early afternoon. A late-day shower or thunderstorm possible mainly northwest of I-95. Highs 77-84. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible through late evening. Lows 57-64. Dew point falling to upper 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy morning with most clouds over southern locations, then mostly sunny. Highs 66-73. Dew point middle to lower 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Areas of ground fog lowest elevations. Lows 40-45 interior lower elevations, 45-50 elsewhere. Dew point falling to lower 40s. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 65-72. Dew point 40s. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 50-57. Dew point upper 40s to lower 40s. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few showers, favoring late day or night. Highs 71-78. Dew point rising to lower 60s. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 14-18)

High pressure builds in and brings cooler/drier air through mid period followed by a warm up as the high center shifts offshore late period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 19-23)

Upper pattern generally zonal (west to east) supporting a return to mostly above normal temperatures with very limited chances for any rainfall.

C-19 Chat Post – September 9 2020

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 8-12)

Sounds like a broken record but high pressure controls more than anything else and the drier than average pattern goes on with no end in sight. Only a cold front will break the monotony as it switches our air mass from a warmer and more humid one to a drier one sometime between Thursday night and Friday morning, and other than the shower or thunderstorm that may accompany that frontal passage, you won’t find any other rain in this 5-day forecast.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-80 coast, 80-85 inland. Dew point near 60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 78-85, coolest South Coast. Dew point lower 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point lower 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. A late-day shower or thunderstorm possible. Highs 77-84. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible through late evening. Lows 57-64. Dew point falling to upper 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 67-74. Dew point falling through 50s into 40s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Areas of ground fog lowest elevations. Lows 40-45 interior lower elevations, 45-50 elsewhere. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 73-80. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with sea breezes at the shoreline.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 13-17)

High pressure should hold the next system off through most of September 13 with a shower chance coming late-day or nighttime. This system probably falls apart over the region September 14 and another one sweeps through the next day with a risk of a few showers, clearing the air out with a Canadian air mass arriving for the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 18-22)

Zonal flow, low amplitude, with a reinforcing cooler shot possible to start this period followed by a return to warmer than average weather as we head toward the Autumnal Equinox. Dry pattern continues. Speculating that much of the region may be classified in severe drought by this time.

C-19 Chat Post – September 8 2020

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 6-11)

If you look at the satellite & radar across the Northeast & Great Lakes first thing this morning you see a big batch of cloudiness to our west, approaching the region, with a significant batch of showers with those clouds. And has been the case with many approaching systems this summer, it will pretty much disappear before reaching us. This is the front that nearly a week ago I put in my extended forecast as having a shot at giving us a chance of a shower or thunderstorm to end the long weekend. And we were are, Labor Day, the “unofficially” final day of the summer season, which ironically was the longest summer season possible, when you go from Memorial Day as its beginning to Labor Day as its ending. And while this year has been anything by typical, I do hope that those of you with today off have a chance to get out and enjoy some wonderful weather we’ll have, courtesy high pressure, which as previously mentioned, will be our main weather controller, and this is not going to change for some time. In fact, it will feel even more like summer tomorrow into midweek as the high center shifts to a position that allows it to warm up with somewhat increased humidity. By later Thursday, a cold front will approach, and this may set off a shower or thunderstorm, but I expect this front to be lacking activity and many areas may remain rain-free during its passage. High pressure will build in Friday with a return to drier, pleasant weather.

TODAY – LABOR DAY: Early morning fog patches in low lying locations, otherwise mostly sunny. Highs 75-82. Dew point upper 50s. Wind S up 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog forming over interior low lying locations (swamps, bogs, riverbeds). Lows 58-65. Dew point upper 50s. Wind near calm.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-80 coast, 80-85 inland. Dew point near 60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 78-85, coolest South Coast. Dew point lower 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point lower 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a few showers and possible thunderstorms, favoring late-day. Highs 77-84. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible through late evening. Lows 57-64. Dew point falling to upper 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 67-74. Dew point falling through 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 12-16)

High pressure will be in control to start next weekend on September 12, and may hold its ground keeping the next approaching system from the west (and another to the south) at bay through September 13 as well. And while it’s still many days away, I’ll also go with the trend of those approaching systems being less impactful than recently shown on models, so that there is just a chance of some shower activity around the region on September 14. Another minor system may approach and pass through from west to east later in the period in a strengthening zonal pattern across the region.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 17-21)

Zonal flow pattern expected with low amplitude trough bringing a cooler interlude early in the period followed by low amplitude ridge bringing a warm-up as we get to the final few days of astronomical summer (autumnal equinox is September 22).

C-19 Chat Post – September 7 2020