8:57AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 9-13)
A quick drop off in wind overnight allowed many areas to fall below my forecast range for low temperatures. That chill will hang around today, but will be more tolerable today than yesterday with much less wind. Some warming aloft will produce more in the way of cloudiness for Sunday, but it will still be a nice day overall. This will continue well into Monday, Veterans Day, making conditions favorable for outdoor ceremonies scheduled in many cities and towns. Things change Monday night, however, as a front settles into the region and moisture, enhanced by a developing low pressure wave, arrives. But like last time, we’ll have mild enough air around for mainly a rain event developing Tuesday, and also like last time, we’ll see a race between the end of the precipitation and the arrival of a much colder air mass, so some areas will likely flip to snow before everything exits Tuesday evening. Once again the greatest risk for any accumulation of snow will be north and west of Boston. If snowfall numbers need to be discussed, they will appear in Monday’s blog post. One thing is for sure, the next surge of cold air arriving Tuesday night through Wednesday will be the coldest of the season so far.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY (VETERANS DAY): Partly sunny morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 43-50. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain, may mix with or change to snow late-day central MA and southern NH. Temperatures steady 40-47 morning, falling slowly afternoon. Wind E to variable up to 10 MPH, becoming N 5-15 MPH later.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered snow showers. Lows 20-27. Wind N 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near 10 at times.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Passing snow showers possible. Highs 30-37. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near 20 at times.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 14-18)
Quick transition out of the cold/wind to the chilly/tranquil with fair weather November 14. A disturbance arrives with milder air and a rain shower risk November 15 then high pressure from Canada brings a dry air mass for the November 16-17 weekend, starting out chilly then moderating, and should hold unsettled weather off well to the south through November 18 as well.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 19-23)
Will continue to keep an eye for potential unsettled weather originating from southwest of New England but still leaning toward dominant high pressure keeping it on the drier side for a good portion of this period. Temperatures for this period should average near to above normal.

7:17AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 8-12)
Our weather pattern is one that leaves New England vulnerable to shots of cold polar air from Canada, and one such shot is arriving now. Today will feel more like late December or early January due to cold air and a gusty wind, but other than the remote risk of a brief rain or snow shower from ocean moisture over Cape Cod and the remote risk of an orographically-induced snow flurry over the higher elevations of southwestern NH and north central MA during the day, it will be dry. The cold and wind will continue into tonight, making it rather uncomfortable for high school football games. If you will be at one of these, dress for mid winter conditions. The weekend, a 3-day for many as Monday is Veterans Day, will be generally nice, but starting out rather cold on Saturday. However less wind will make it more tolerable than today will be. By Sunday, some cloudiness may be around at times as a disturbance moves through, but it will be slightly milder. It looks like an approaching cold front will be sluggish getting through the region on Veterans Day Monday, and the front being starved for moisture initially means just some cloudiness is expected but with temperatures on the milder side. Just as the cold front is coming through later Monday and Monday evening it will likely be halted and temporarily pushed back a bit north as the progressive nature of the pattern is going to allow low pressure to develop sooner and move more quickly along the boundary, moving north of the region during the first half of Tuesday. This set-up will be similar to what we just went through and we should see a band of rain or rain showers which may end as snow showers or a period of snow especially north and west before the front pulls through and much colder air starts its arrival later Tuesday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill middle to upper 20s at times.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill in the 10s.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY (VETERANS DAY): Partly sunny morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 43-50. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind variable to SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain possible mainly midday and afternoon, may end as snow or snow showers north and west late in the day. Highs 43-50, but a sharp drop late-day or night. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW 15-25 MPH late.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 13-17)
Coldest air of the season so far along with wind and dry weather with only a slight risk of an isolated snow shower for November 13. Continued cold but less wind November 14 as high pressure moves in. Disturbance arrives with milder air and a rain shower risk November 15. High pressure returns from Canada with another dry and chilly air mass for November 16-17 but not as cold as the previous shot.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 18-22)
A little tricky here as medium range guidance says “hey, watch for a coastal storm” but I’ve seen this indicated before in this pattern and it doesn’t really come to fruition, so I have my doubts for now and will lean toward southern energy staying south and northern energy staying mostly north and just sending fronts through with overall dry weather, brief precipitation (mainly rain shower) threats with overall moderating temperatures, not too far from or slightly above normal. This is not a high confidence forecast at this time.

6:37AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 7-11)
A cold front will approach southeastern New England today, sending clouds and eventual rain into the region later today into tonight. This front is the leading edge of a cold polar air mass from Canada which will be moving in tonight as the precipitation gets ready to end overnight, and will be quick enough north and west of Boston to flip the rain to at least mix and probably snow before it moves out. There’s an outside change that the rain/snow mix makes it all the way to Boston but no guarantee. Either way, if there is any accumulation at all, it will be minor and fleeting in the higher elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH. The bigger story will be the wind and cold air on Friday which will make it feel more like early winter. Brr! The wind will keep up into Friday night, and any late-season high school football games will be played with wind chills as low as the teens as the air temperature falls from the 30s into the 20s. Saturday will be dry and cold, but the wind will ease up a bit so it will not feel as cold as Friday. A slight change to the weekend forecast is that a small disturbance and warming air aloft will combine to produce some cloudiness for Sunday, though temperature moderation will occur. By Monday, Veterans Day, an approaching cold front looks like it will be a little slower, allowing at least the morning and midday hours to be reasonably comfortable for outdoor Veterans Day ceremonies that are scheduled for many cities and towns.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Clouding up. Late-day light rain possible, favoring central MA and southern NH. Highs 47-54. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain, mixing with or changing to snow north and west of Boston with some minor accumulation possible favoring higher elevations north central MA and southwestern NH, and briefly mixing with snow into Metro Boston (staying rain further southeast) while tapering off around or shortly after midnight. Lows 30-37. Wind shifting to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill middle to upper 20s at times.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill in the 10s.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY (VETERANS DAY): Partly sunny morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 43-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, shifting to N late-day.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 12-16)
The front that comes through Monday will sit just south of the region and allow a wave of low pressure to move up along it on Tuesday (Nov 12) with rain/mix more likely than snow, but still need to watch as changes are possible. Wednesday (Nov 13) should see clearing, windy, much colder weather behind the departing wave, before high pressure moves in for a cool but more tranquil Thursday (Nov 14). Current timing would take a weak disturbance in from the west for Friday (Nov 15) with milder air and a risk of rain showers, before a chilly high pressure area approaches and clears the region out with a colder wind for Saturday (Nov 16).

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 17-21)
Dry, moderating temperatures as high pressure dominates early in the period. Some unsettled weather is possible middle or later portion of the period with milder air more dominant.

7:25AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 6-10)
High pressure provides a nice early November day today. A cold front approaches Thursday with clouds and eventually wet weather, though that may hold off until very late in the day. The front slides through at night as a wave of low pressure develops on it and moves across the region, intensifying after it moves away. As cold air is pulled in, it becomes cold enough to start supporting snow instead of rain north and west of Boston but this will also take place as drier air moves in and the precipitation ends, so brief snow is really all that possible in those areas, so a “worst case” scenario would only produce a minor accumulation at higher elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH that would melt shortly after it fell as the ground is still on the warmer side for holding onto any snow. However, Friday itself will be a windy and cold day, feeling more like early winter. The chill will continue through Saturday but with less wind, so other than a very cold morning, the daytime will feel less cold than Friday. A little more temperature moderation will occur Sunday with a southwesterly air flow ahead of another approaching cold front, but initially this front will be moisture-starved, so only a few clouds are expected to move in during Sunday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Clouding up. Late-day light rain possible, favoring central MA and southern NH. Highs 47-54. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain, possibly mixing with or changing to snow north and west of Boston with some minor accumulation possible favoring higher elevations north central MA and southwestern NH. Lows 30-37. Wind shifting to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy with a snow shower (north) and rain shower (south) possible early, otherwise sunshine and passing clouds. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill in the 10s.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 25-32. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 11-15)
A front will be nearby, probably just to the south, November 11 (Veterans Day) so expect some cloudiness and cool conditions. From the night of November 11 into November 13 waves of low pressure will travel along that boundary south of the region with cloud cover and occasional precipitation in the form of rain and/or snow, depending on location. Not looking for a large winter storm type event, however. Drier weather arrives thereafter as high pressure pushes in but a disturbance may bring a rain shower risk around November 15 with milder air briefly.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 16-20)
We may eventually need to watch a boundary to the south for the threat of unsettled weather but for now looking for high pressure to be dominant with mainly dry weather during this period, starting colder than average then moderating.

7:46AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 5-9)
A low pressure trough swings through the region from west to east today bringing a warm front / cold front combo. A tongue of low level moisture will aid in setting up an area of soaking showers favoring southeastern and eastern MA this afternoon, where a rumble of thunder is even possible. Back to the west only a few showers are possible. This system will push offshore during tonight and high pressure will bring fair, seasonably chilly weather Wednesday. A cold front will approach from the northwest Thursday, returning clouds to the region during the day. A low pressure wave will be developing along that front, and similar to yesterday’s thinking, it will be the dominant wave on the front while it impacts this area, with precipitation coming in late Thursday or Thursday night in the form of rain, but possibly flipping to a period of snow or snow showers especially north and west of Boston as it ends in the early hours of Friday, but at this point it looks like if there was to be any snow accumulation it would favor higher elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH and be minor at that. During the day Friday, the coldest air of the season so far will be arriving as it dries out and eventually clears out too. This will line the region up for a Saturday that will be bright but with a bite – feeling more like early winter than mid to late autumn.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers this afternoon, but an area of more numerous showers and possible embedded thunder favoring southeastern and eastern MA later in the day. Highs 52-59. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Clouding up. Late-day light rain possible, favoring central MA and southern NH. Highs 47-54. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain, possibly mixing with or changing to snow north and west of Boston with some minor accumulation possible. Lows 30-37. Wind shifting to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy with a snow shower (north) and rain shower (south) possible early, otherwise sunshine and passing clouds. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill in the 10s.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill in the 20s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 10-14)
A weak trough will pass by later November 10 to early November 11 that may produce a rain or snow shower in a few locations but otherwise dry and a little less cold. Will watch low pressure to the south and southeast November 12-13 which should pull away by November 14 with temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 15-19)
A disturbance to start the period may bring a few rain showers with milder temperatures then a stretch of dry, colder weather followed by some moderation.

6:50AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 4-8)
High pressure hangs on today with fair weather then slides away and allows a trough to swing through for Tuesday, a day that will be a little milder but feature a risk of rain showers. Another bubble of high pressure brings fair and seasonably chilly weather for Wednesday. A quick shot of slightly milder air precedes a cold front which will slide through the region from northwest to southeast during Thursday, exiting slowly as a wave of low pressure tries to form on it. This system will bring a period or two of rain which may end as snow for much of the region, depending on moisture departure and cold air arrival, in the early hours of Friday. With some guidance turning this into a bigger event than I expect, it’s still worth watching, but for now expecting it to be a quick event with further development taking place too far south to impact the region, and Friday just ending up drying, windy, and cold.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Highs 52-59. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Clouding up. Afternoon light rain possible. Highs 47-54. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain, likely changing to snow at least north and west of Boston with some accumulation possible. Lows 28-35. Wind shifting to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Cloudy with rain/snow likely early, then clearing. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 9-13)
November 9-10 weekend will be fair but cold Saturday with wind and highs in the 30s, chilly Sunday with less wind and highs in the 40s. Veterans Day looks mainly dry at this time but on the chilly side as a front moves in and brings an increase in cloudiness, and this may set up the possibility of rain and snow in the November 12-13 time frame as low pressure passes south of the region .. something to watch.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 14-18)
Quick glance ahead shows fair weather and temperature moderation November 14, a system passing by with rain showers around November 15, then another shot of cold air for the November 16-17 weekend and a moderation at the end of the period with generally dry weather.

7:21AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 3-7)
An even quicker update for your Sunday, as there are no significant changes to the forecast at this point. A nice weekend continues, chilly early November weather, but pleasant during the day, although today will turn out to be a little more breezy compared to yesterday as a gradient sets up between low pressure in eastern Canada and high pressure pushing toward New England from the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. This high will control our weather through Monday, another nice day. A trough of low pressure swings through Tuesday when it will be milder but also carry a risk of rain showers. Another area of high pressure takes a similar route to the previous one on Wednesday, another nice late autumn day for southeastern New England. But quick-moving systems mean the next front will be in the area Thursday when more clouds and a risk of rain showers will be back.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 26-33 interior, 33-40 coastal and urban areas. Wind W diminishing to under 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of rain showers. Highs 52-59. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a risk of rain showers evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 52-59. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 8-12)
Cold front comes through early November 8 when rain showers may end as snow showers as colder air arrives. Front should push far enough south to allow a wave of low pressure to pass south enough to keep additional precipitation south of the region but some clouds at least over southern areas for November 8. The November 9-10 weekend will be fair and cold, windy Saturday but more tranquil Sunday. November 11 (Veterans Day) will become breezy but milder, and a cold front passes late-day or evening with a rain shower risk. This front may sit just south of the region and keep clouds in place through November 12 and we may need to watch for a rain threat if a low pressure wave moves along the front.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 13-17)
Unsettled weather risk to start the period then overall drier weather with some up and down temperatures. A little low confidence on how things work out during this period at this time.

8:43AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 2-6)
A quick update for your Saturday. A nice weekend, weak high pressure in control today with light wind, and a stronger high moving across the Tennessee Valley Sunday setting up a lightly stronger pressure gradient and a bit more of a breeze but still a very nice day for Sunday, carrying through Monday as well. A trough swings through Tuesday when it will be milder but also carry a risk of rain showers. Another area of high pressure takes a similar route to the previous one on Wednesday, another nice late autumn day for southeastern New England.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A period of rain possible Cape Cod. Lows 35-42 except 42-49 Cape Cod. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 26-33 interior, 33-40 coastal and urban areas. Wind W diminishing to under 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 25-32 interior, 33-40 coastal and urban areas. Wind W under 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of rain showers. Highs 52-59. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a risk of rain showers evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 49-56. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 7-11)
A cold front settles through the region November 7 with a rain shower risk. A weak wave of low pressure may ripple along that front late November 7 to early November 8 enhancing rainfall which may even end as mix north and west of Boston early November 8 if enough moisture lingers. The coldest air of the autumn so far arrives during November 8 and lingers into the weekend with a gradual moderation by Veterans Day November 11.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 12-16)
The first 2 of 3 days of this period run the risk of unsettled weather as the pattern transitions toward a milder scenario. Fair weather should be back later in the period.

10:29AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 1-5)
New month. New pattern, for now. A large scale pattern, rooted out of a warm water bubble in the central Pacific, has allowed New England a fairly mild, though not overly warm, October, while much of the western and central US turned rather chilly. Now things will be shifting a bit. Not that we’re about to turn brutally cold and snowy. It’s not quite winter yet, folks. We enter later autumn with a pattern that will make it feel like you think it would. We’ll be on the cooler side of normal to start the month and that will definitely be evident here during the first 5 days of November. A strong cold front moved offshore in the early morning hours, accompanied by showers and downpours and very gusty winds. Power outages have resulted for several thousand households across the area. The good news is, while today is still going to be a gusty day, winds will be diminishing later and we’ll enjoy a calmer weekend overall, especially Saturday, to allow any cleanup and repairs to be quickly finished. The weather is also going to be fairly dry, but we are about to have a very close call with what could have been a quick but significant storm. Two piece of energy, one coming across the Great Lakes and another offshore, will just start to combine forces as they pass by the region Saturday night. Had they been closer or interacted sooner, different story. For now, just expecting a brief period of rain across Cape Cod Saturday night. The only other weather system to deal with will be an insignificant trough approaching from the west on Tuesday that will be largely unnoticed except for some clouds in the northern and western sky.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Temperatures falling into 50s. Wind W 15-30 MPH, higher gusts, gradually diminishing during the afternoon.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts early, diminishing.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A period of rain possible Cape Cod. Lows 35-42 except 42-49 Cape Cod. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 26-33 interior, 33-40 coastal and urban areas. Wind W diminishing to under 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 25-32 interior, 33-40 coastal and urban areas. Wind W under 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 6-10)
Briefly milder November 6, dry weather expected. Trough swings through the region and drives a frontal system with rain showers across the area November 7, starting mild then turning cooler later. High pressure brings dry weather and cooler than average temperatures November 8-10.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 11-15)
After a dry and seasonably chilly start, a little more in the way of unsettled weather is possible as we transition out of a cooler spell toward a temperature moderation.

7:34AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 31-NOVEMBER 4)
No big changes, as the wettest part of your October 31 is expected to be during the daylight hours as scattered to numerous rain showers move through in an increasing southerly wind, and then we see a diminishment of shower activity by evening as winds continue to increase, so that towns and cities still holding trick or treat will escape heavy soaking rainfall for the most part but will still have to deal with gusty winds, blowing leaves, and possible downed tree branches. Use caution if you will be out and advise caution if you are sending kids out. And this is a good place for a reminder to use extra care if you will be driving. Overnight, as a cold front approaches, one or two lines of showers and possible embedded thunderstorms will move across the region from west to east, and this is when some of the strongest wind gusts will occur, with potential tree damage and resultant localized power outages. When we get to dawn on Friday, the front will be moving offshore and we’ll see it clear out during the morning with sun and passing clouds the remainder of the day, and temperatures will be “upside-down”, starting fairly warm, ending up much cooler. The weekend continues to look dry, but we’ll actually have a fairly close call that many don’t even notice, as energy moving through from west to east almost catches up to an offshore disturbance Saturday night. A phase would have resulted in a period of rain/mix/snow in at least eastern areas, but it looks like this is not going to be the case. So dry weather should continue even if clouds move overhead, and then additional dry weather will round out the weekend and continue Monday as high pressure dominates.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous rain showers. Humid. Highs 63-70. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated rain showers evening. Numerous rain showers and possible thunderstorms arriving west to east overnight. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind S 15-25 MPH, higher gusts into the 35-45 MPH range evening, gusts 40-50 MPH and locally stronger overnight.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely around dawn then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 60-67 early, then falling through the 50s. Wind W 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 38-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH early, diminishing gradually.
SATURDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH becoming variable.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 26-33 interior, 33-40 coastal and urban areas. Wind W under 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 5-9)
A west to east flow will dominate with a mean trough position temporarily in the Great Lakes to New England. This is a cooler but mainly dry pattern. Two disturbances will likely pass by, the first sometime late November 5 to early November 6 with nothing more than clouds, the second sometime November 7 with more cloudiness and a risk of showers, likely in the form of rain. Temperatures near to mostly below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 10-14)
High pressure should control the weather to start the period with a chill giving way to a moderation in temperature, then a turn to unsettled weather is possible during the second half of the period.

7:37AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 30-NOVEMBER 3)
Low level moisture, still present, will be less in the form of a low overcast, fog, and drizzle today, and more in the form of considerable cloudiness, more humid air, and scattered rain showers, which will morph into a strong southerly air flow ahead of an approaching cold front Thursday, when more numerous rain showers will occur, but in waves, leaving a distinct possibility that towns that did not postpone trick or treat may be doing so in rain-free but windy and fairly warm conditions. If this is the case, even without rain, people will need to beware of many leaves on the ground, which can be slippery, and keep an eye around older trees for branches that may be vulnerable to stronger wind gusts. A final band of rain showers should come through in the pre-dawn hours of Friday, which will turn out to be an upside down temperature day, starting out quite warm for the first hours of November, then turning much cooler, along with a gusty westerly wind. The weekend looks mainly dry and on the chilly side. A very weak disturbance passing by Saturday night and early Sunday will not combine with offshore energy, so just some cloudiness and no more than a shower of rain or snow would occur, but probably north of the WHW area.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers. More humid. Highs 60-67. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Humid. Lows 55-62. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous rain showers. Humid. Highs 63-70. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered rain showers. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind S 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely around dawn then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 60-67 early, then falling through the 50s to the 40s. Wind S 10-20 MPH shifting to N with higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 38-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 48-55. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 4-8)
General west to east flow. The only weather system of note should be a frontal system trailing from a low passing to the north between late November 6 and early November 7. Temperatures near to mostly below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 9-13)
A general west to east flow continues with another disturbance due about November 10. By the end of the period, a broader area of unsettled weather may arrive. Temperatures should show a moderating trend overall.

6:56AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 29-NOVEMBER 2)
A blanket of low level moisture continues today into Wednesday as the light and prevailing surface wind gradually shifts from east to southeast. This means that pockets of drizzle will be around, favoring areas closer to the coast. But Wednesday, the risk of rain showers will increase as a trough approaches from the west and an area of mid level moisture moves in from the south. This will be a precursor to a stronger push of air from the south as the gradient increases between offshore high pressure and an approaching front from the west, parented by a strong low pressure area moving to the northwest of New England late Thursday then passing north of the area on Friday. What does this mean for the Halloween weather? Well with already talk of Halloween wash-outs I need to step in here and say “not so fast!” We are going to be dealing with showery rainfall, and as we get into the warm sector during Thursday, it’s very possible that large areas of rain-free conditions will exist, so we may end up with a window of opportunity for no rainfall during trick-or-treat time, however, the wind gusts may be a bigger issue, not that they will be severe, but we may be dealing with a lot of leaves blowing about, and wind-sensitive costumes and Halloween set-ups being impacted somewhat. I am not going to over-hype this potential, because I don’t think we’re looking at a major wind event, just a gusty Halloween night, maybe adding to the “spookiness”. So that leaves us only the rainfall issue to fine-tune, which we will do in the next 2 blog updates. On Friday, a strong cold front passes by, and a day that starts warm, humid, and showery will end dry, blustery, and much cooler. This sets us up for a mainly dry and chilly Saturday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of drizzle and fog. Highs 53-60. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered rain showers. Lows 45-52. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Highs 60-67. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated rain showers. Lows 53-60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous rain showers. Increasingly humid. Highs 63-70. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered rain showers. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind S 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely early to mid morning. Sun/cloud mix late morning on. Highs 60-67 early, then falling through the 50s to the 40s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW with higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 3-7)
An offshore wave of low pressure and a polar jet disturbance come close to meeting but don’t quite make it, so early November 3 just brings a rain/snow shower risk instead of a period of precipitation, followed by dry/breezy/chilly weather. High pressure moves in for nice but cool weather November 4. The later November 5 to early November 7 period carries some uncertainty as another pair of disturbances (one offshore and one coming through the Great Lakes) have to be watched should they start to interact. Otherwise somewhere in there just a period of light precipitation is possible. A stronger cold air mass may arrive at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 8-12)
Fair, chilly start then a moderating trend. Unsettled weather may approach by the end of the period.

7:02AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 28-NOVEMBER 1)
The low pressure area that brought Sunday’s soaker is offshore, but not that far away, and is helping keep an onshore air flow going, combined with high pressure in eastern Canada, so low level moisture will keep clouds in place along with areas of drizzle and perhaps a few renegade rain showers today and Tuesday. Also, watch for some coastal flooding around high tide times from a combination of easterly fetch and astronomically high tides. As the air flow turns more southerly ahead of an approaching low pressure trough Wednesday, it will be a little milder but still clouds will dominate with a slightly better chance of rain showers. And then changes begin, but that doesn’t mean quick improvement. In fact, things get worse before they get better as a stronger trough and frontal system approach Thursday. Where last year’s Halloween night was pleasantly cool and dry, it looks like this one may end up mild but rather breezy and wet. Finally, a strong cold front passes by during Friday as November arrives, and a day that starts wet and mild will likely end colder and dry.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of drizzle and fog. Isolated rain showers possible. Highs 50-57. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of drizzle and fog. Lows 43-50. Wind E up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of drizzle and fog. Highs 53-60. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered rain showers. Lows 45-52. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Highs 60-67. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated rain showers. Lows 53-60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous rain showers. Highs 60-67. Wind S 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Numerous to widespread rain showers. Lows 53-60. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely morning. Sun/cloud mix afternoon. Highs 60-67 early, then falling through the 50s to the 40s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW with higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 2-6)
General westerly flow expected with a mostly dry and chilly November 2-3 weekend, though a disturbance passing through somewhere between late November 2 and early November 3 may produce a sprinkle of rain or flurry of snow in a few locations. Moderating temperatures occur later in the period and this transition may bring some cloudiness and light mix to rain later November 5, though timing is highly uncertain this far out.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 7-11)
Best chance of unsettled weather comes at the start of the period before a transition from milder back to cooler weather again, with continued mostly dry weather and moderating temperatures once again late period.

8:08AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 27-31)
Low pressure moves northeastward through the interior Northeast, sending the triple-point of a warm front / cold front occlusion into New England where a new low will form by tonight over and just east of the region, then drift around out there and weaken early in the week. This introduces an unsettled stretch of weather to the region which will be wettest later today but will hang around in some form into if not through midweek, which includes Halloween on Thursday. Don’t read this and think we have 5 washed out days ahead. That’s not the case. This will be an unsettled stretch of weather, where we will be having to figure out details on lots of clouds and occasional wet threats.
Today’s is waves of lighter rain as warm air moves in aloft, and then numerous rain showers, some heavier, later day and evening as the front arrives and cyclogenesis ensues. Tomorrow’s weather will feature a lot of low level moisture, so an overcast day with drizzle and areas of fog and a risk of a few periods of rain seem likely. Things should ease up somewhat Tuesday into Wednesday with the decaying low offshore and a nose of high pressure from eastern Canada poking in, but still enough onshore flow that it may make any clearing hard to come by. Thursday well be watching the approach of a new system from the west, and earlier I’d been thinking we may get into a warmer southerly flow, but that may be prevented if a frontal boundary is not allowed to push northward enough. There is still the chance it does push through and we do get into the warm sector, and if that happens my temperature forecast below will be under-done. For now my thinking this far out is that any significant rainfall from that approaching system will be held off until very late Thursday night or even next Friday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mainly cloudy morning with spotty light rain. Overcast afternoon with increasing rain shower threat west to east, some of which may be moderate to heavy. Highs 55-62. Wind E-SE up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle. Rain likely. Lows 48-55. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Drizzle and areas of fog. Chance of rain. Highs 52-59. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Area of drizzle and fog. Chance of rain. Lows 45-52. Wind E up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog early. Chance of rain showers. Highs 55-62. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 46-53. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog early. Highs 55-62. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 46-53. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Highs 56-63. Wind E up to 10 MPH, possibly shifting to S.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 1-5)
Low amplitude pattern, generally west to east flow, but mean trough position in Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. This pattern is cooler, and slightly less unsettled, but still systems moving through (the one mentioned before coming through November 1, and two weaker ones around November 2 and 4) bringing unsettled weather threats.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 6-10)
Watching for a weather system and precipitation threat in the late November 6 to early November 8 time frame. Drier weather more likely thereafter.

9:18AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 26-30)
High pressure centered north of New England provides a nice day today. Low pressure will track northeastward, set to pass northwest of New England late Sunday, but its an occluding low and a new low center will form near or over southern New England Sunday night then doddle just offshore Monday as high pressure rebuilds to the north. This will provide an easterly air flow here, preventing much on the way of clearing. By Wednesday, the same general set-up but in weaker form will be in place, but we should see some improvement during the Tuesday-Wednesday time period.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 53-60. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Light rain likely morning. Spotty very light rain first half of afternoon. Numerous rain showers arriving west to east second half of afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind E-SE up to 10 MPH shifting to S.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle. Rain likely. Lows 48-55. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Drizzle and areas of fog. Chance of rain. Highs 52-59. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Area of drizzle and fog. Chance of rain. Lows 45-52. Wind E up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog early. Chance of rain showers. Highs 55-62. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 46-53. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Patchy fog early. Highs 58-65. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 31-NOVEMBER 4)
Close call between a gusty southerly breeze, fair weather and mild air and a cloudier, wetter scenario for October 31 depending on the track of low pressure west of New England and associated boundaries. Front passes through during November 1 with rain showers likely. Generally dry but breezy and much cooler November 2-3 weekend. Next wet weather threat comes at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 5-9)
Watching for a weather system and precipitation threat in the late November 6 to early November 8 time frame.