10:01AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 12-16)
As we progress through the heart of meteorological autumn, so far we have seen nothing very much out of the ordinary. We’ve had some early cool shots in a September that was dominated by milder weather thanks to a fairly stable pattern that placed a strong ridge of high pressure in the US Southeast, but close enough to exert its influence on the Northeast quite often. During the first 10+ days of October we have seen a few changes, along with a “typically atypical” occurrence. I don’t really like to think of the type of storm we have just seen as atypical, because that’s not really the right word. We’ve seen that set-up and slight variations of it many times. It was a storm system cut off from the jet stream. It may be more common to see such occurrences in the spring, but it’s very far from unheard of in the autumn. But more importantly, while the system evolved far enough offshore to have the impacts that I was anticipating, we did dodge a bullet as the system would have had more significant impact being closer to the coast. However, we likely would not have seen the intensification had it been closer to the coast as it was drawing on water from the gulf stream for its partial transition toward a tropical system. In fact, NHC felt the transition was enough to give it a name, Melissa. That would not have happened with a storm center a couple hundred miles closer to the coast, however it would have compensated for that somewhat by tightening up the pressure gradient and causing more wind and resultant impacts. Either way, the storm is now heading away from the area, and we do have lingering effects in the form of plentiful low level moisture with lots of drizzle and areas of fog to start out today. But as the day goes on, we will bring more and more dry air back in from the north and conditions will improve, at least in terms of ending the drizzle/fog. As far as clearing goes, that will be tough to really get all the way to the coast, but interior areas should start to see at least breaks in the clouds this afternoon. Any breaks/sun closer to the coast will be a bonus. The dry air will expand and take over the entire region during tonight and Sunday as we finally get into a much friendlier westerly air flow. But Sunday night, trough will swing rapidly across the region and may produce some passing rain showers, lingering into very early Columbus Day Monday, before fair weather returns for another nice day. Then more changes as we sneak in one more nice day Tuesday under the influence of high pressure, before a quick-moving low pressure system and vigorous associated upper level trough moves in during Wednesday when the weather will go downhill…
Forecast details…
TODAY: Overcast with areas of fog and drizzle gradually diminishing during the morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon but breaks of sun developing at least interior areas. Highs 53-60. Wind N 5-15 MPH but gusts 20-30 MPH especially eastern coastal areas.
TONIGHT: Gradual clearing. Lows 43-50. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Passing rain showers late night. Lows 53-60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of rain showers eastern areas early morning. Highs 63-70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Lows 46-53. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Rain likely. Highs 56-63. Wind SE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 17-21)
After a midweek system departs, look for a windy/chilly October 17 but with dry weather, a breezy/cool October 18 with more dry weather, and then a continuation of dry weather but with a warming trend over the October 19-20 weekend and possibly through October 21 as well as a high pressure ridge slides across the eastern US and pushes the jet stream northward.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 22-26)
General west to east flow pattern continues early in the period when a trough from the west should bring rain showers then a shot of much cooler air. Toward the end of the period it becomes far less clear of how the pattern may set-up as there have been subtle signs of some type of system with Gulf of Mexico moisture (rare occurrence lately) making a run at the Southeast and Mid Atlantic and possibly putting itself south of New England. What takes place would depend on the speed of the evolution, but I am not certain this takes place at all. Just something to watch for now. Going to lean toward an overall dry pattern with a moderating trend for the WHW forecast area for now.

6:51AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 11-15)
Low pressure offshore will be close enough to impact the region into early Saturday before pulling away. The most “widespread” rain in areas previously kept dry will occur today and this evening. By Saturday, as the low is on its way out the wind shifts more to the north with slight improvement in the weather, but still early rain shower risks and lots of clouds during the day. By Sunday, we’re into a westerly air flow with fair and milder weather, which will last through Columbus Day Monday, except for a quick-moving disturbance that will sneak through Sunday night with a risk of a passing rain shower. High pressure will control the weather Tuesday, another nice day.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain, most numerous southeastern MA/RI. Highs 52-59. Wind NE 15-25 MPH, stronger gusts especially coastal areas. TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain evening, tapering to scattered rain showers overnight. Lows 45-52. Wind NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Passing rain showers possible morning. Highs 56-63. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Risk of passing rain showers. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 63-70. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog interior low elevations. Lows 45-52. Wind light variable.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind light variable.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 16-20)
The trough spoken about for the middle of the 6-10 day period on yesterday’s update will be moving along and likely produce its wet weather threat October 16 before moving east and leaving the region in mainly dry weather for the remainder of the period, with a brief shot of cool air followed by a warm-up as a high pressure ridge builds over the region.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 21-25)
Eastward shift of features this period should bring a progressive trough eastward, some unsettled weather at times and a cooling trend. Not likely to have a long stretch of wet weather, just not easy to time when the threat may be this far in advance.

7:14AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 10-14)
Our cut off storm will be fighting a large high pressure area to its north and my suspicion about it not being quite as impactful will indeed be the case, not to dismiss the fact there will still be some heavy rain in southeastern areas, where it was most likely, and wind that will be strong enough to take down tree limbs and in some cases some weaker older trees which still carry leaves, and a few coastal flooding issues, though relatively minor. The rainfall comes in waves and is lighter as you go northwest. You can see visual evidence of the dry air fighting this storm if you are in Boston’s NW suburbs looking west and northwest at a strip of clear sky at dawn this morning. Nothing more to add that wasn’t here on the last update other than enough dry air may be involved to save at least part of the Patriots home game tonight from a driving rain, with just a bit of drizzle and passing areas of much lighter rain. It will be breezy and quite cool though, so if you are going to that game, dress accordingly for a gusty breeze and temperatures around 50, definitely not nearly as bad as it can be in the stadium later in the season or during the playoffs! Still looking for a slow pull-away of the storm later Friday after some additional rain, and Saturday, which will still feature a lot of clouds and a threat of a few showers along with continued breezy conditions. But the middle and end of the Columbus Day Weekend will be quite nice with a westerly air flow bringing mostly fair and milder weather but we will have to watch for a disturbance moving through around Sunday night or early Monday with a brief rain shower risk.
Forecast details…
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Periods of rain, heaviest southeastern MA/RI. Highs 52-59. Lows 45-52. Wind NE 15-35 MPH, stronger gusts especially coastal areas.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Passing rain showers possible. Highs 56-63. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Risk of passing rain showers. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with a rain shower risk early, then partly cloudy. Highs 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 15-19)
Generally westerly flow, overall pattern is dry, but trough crossing eastern Canada will parent a low pressure area which will drag a warm front / cold front combo across the region with a wet weather threat about mid period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 19-23)
Still a little uncertainty as to the overall pattern heading from mid toward late October. Taking medium range model bias into account going to hold onto the mostly west to east flow with a warm-up peaking at mid period, and mostly dry weather.

7:26AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 9-13)
A storm cut off from the jet stream will do a cyclonic loop south of New England over the next few days, impacting our weather into Saturday, with peak impact Thursday/Friday when southeastern New England will see its heaviest rain and strongest wind, and also coastal issues with areas of moderate flooding. This system pulls away during the weekend and and westerly air flow returns by Sunday. Highlights of storm impact will be 1-3 inches of rain possible over much of the area, except less in southern NH and pockets of above 3 inches possible in southeastern MA and RI where some flooding may occur. However with recent dry weather and low water levels in rivers, etc. the flooding will not be as bad had we been wetter leading up to this event. Coastal flooding is most likely along east-facing shores and closest to high tide times. Wind impacts will be mainly to old trees, which is often the case around here these days, but this leads to a power outage risk. Wind gusts will be strongest in coastal and southeastern areas. The storm center itself will not be particularly intense, but its the pressure gradient between it and a large high pressure area in southeastern Canada that will create the wind.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Clouding up. Periods of rain pushing into southern and eastern MA, RI and eastern CT. Highs 56-63. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain, heaviest southeastern MA/RI. Lows 45-52. Wind NE 15-25 MPH, gusts over 30 MPH especially coastal areas.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain likely, heavy at times favoring southeastern areas. Highs 52-59. Lows 45-52. Wind NE 15-35 MPH, stronger gusts especially coastal areas.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Passing rain showers possible. Highs 56-63. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 13-17)
Air flow becomes more westerly for this 5-day period with dry weather October 13, a disturbance from the west possibly bringing a few showers October 14-15, then dry weather after that. Temperatures not too far from normal.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 18-22)
The west to east flow will continue until about the middle of this period before we may see another set-up with high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south. Not a high confidence forecast.

6:36AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 8-12)
The cold front that went through the region with fairly widespread showers Monday evening has settled just to the south of the region, and while today is cooler and drier, the sky condition will range from mostly cloudy along the South Coast to at least partly sunny over northern MA and southern NH. Some lingering rain will dry up as it moves southeastward across the region during early to mid morning. High pressure will build across southeastern Canada through midweek and as this happens, an ocean storm will form well south of New England. This is a difficult set-up to forecast, as the storm will be in a region removed from the stronger jet stream steering, so its path is rather difficult to foretell. We’ve seen computer guidance range from a scenario that shows not much impact other than a gusty breeze and a little rain in southern areas, to a more direct impact of stronger wind and several days of wet weather. At this time, I’m leaning toward a scenario somewhere in between, but with a leaning toward a more southerly placement of the storm and less significant impact here. This will still have to be closely monitored. The time frame should be in the Wednesday night to Saturday morning time frame, with Thursday/Friday the 2 most likely days for the most direct impact. Will get more detailed on the next blog post…
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy South Coast. Partly sunny elsewhere. Highs 57-64. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of drizzle favoring East Coast. Areas of rain favoring South Coast. Lows 40-47. Wind E 10-20 MPH except 15-30 MPH South Coast.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of drizzle favoring East Coast. Areas of rain favoring South Coast. Highs 56-63. Wind E 10-20 MPH except 20-35 MPH South Coast.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny except mostly cloudy with periods of rain Cape Cod. Highs 55-62. Wind NE to N 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy except mostly cloudy with a chance of rain Cape Cod. Lows 40-47. Wind N 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 56-63. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 14-18)
Westerly flow for this period, risk of a few passing rain showers at times early and again at end of period otherwise generally dry with temperatures not too far from normal.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 19-23)
The west to east flow will continue until about the middle of this period before we may see another set-up with high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south. Not a high confidence forecast.

7:24AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 7-11)
A cold front slowly approaches today then moves through tonight and sits not too far south of the region Tuesday as high pressure builds northwest and north of the region, turning today’s mild and breezy day into a much cooler one for Tuesday. The front will produce rain showers as it crosses the region tonight and some of them may linger near Cape Cod and the South Coast into Tuesday morning. The Wednesday through Friday weather largely depends on the development and reach of low pressure south of the region. Its center will probably form pretty far to the south, and won’t be allowed to move too far north due to high pressure remaining strong to our north, but the size of its moisture shield should be enough for at least a lot cloudiness during those days and the air flow between the high and low will at least be enough to bring the risk of some drizzle at times, and possibly some rain at times, but for now I’m continuing to lean toward most of that being to the south and therefore the greatest chance of that being nearer to the South Coast.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated rain showers possible. Highs 65-72. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to general rain showers likely. Lows 50-57. Wind SW shifting to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with lingering showers South Coast / Cape Cod morning, otherwise partly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny except mostly cloudy South Coast with a risk of rain at times. Highs 56-63. Wind NE to E 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of drizzle favoring East Coast. Areas of rain favoring South Coast. Lows 40-47. Wind E 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of drizzle favoring East Coast. Areas of rain favoring South Coast. Highs 56-63. Wind E 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 12-16)
Cautiously optimistic that we’ll see low pressure passing far enough southeast of the region and high pressure to the northwest with fair weather for the October 12-13 weekend, but low confidence forecast at the moment. A more westerly air flow develops thereafter, milder with a few rain showers possible October 14-15 with fair weather returning to end the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 17-21)
Generally west to east flow pattern expected with some up and down temperatures and a few generally minor rain shower threats as the pattern is dry overall.

7:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 6-10)
Despite some medium range model forecasts that say otherwise, I see no reason to change my forecast at this point, regarding low pressure south of the region as we get into the coming week. Our main weather players will be high pressure, one retreating to the east today, another approaching from the west Tuesday then shifting mainly north of the region but close enough to keep low pressure to the south heading toward midweek. What about Monday? Same deal as previously, our one “warmer and more humid” day with a risk of rain showers.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 62-69. Wind S increasing to 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers overnight. Lows 53-60. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Humid. Highs 65-72. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers early. Lows 55-62. Wind variable 5-15 MPH shifting to N.
TUESDAY: Clearing. Highs 63-70. Wind N to NE 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 45-52. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 56-63. Wind NE to E 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 38-45. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 56-63. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 11-15)
Currently expecting low pressure to be held at bay offshore with just an easterly to northerly air flow and mainly dry weather here to start the period, then a transition to a more westerly flow mid to late period, with a weak trough from the west bringing a risk of some rain showers around October 14 (Columbus Day) and/or October 15. Temperatures should not depart too far from seasonal normals.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 16-20)
Zonal (west to east) flow pattern expected with minor rain shower threats and mainly dry weather, changeable temperatures but not too drastically departed from normal values.

7:22AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 5-9)
A big “H” sits on New England today, providing pretty much the perfect autumn day. Hope you can enjoy it! High pressure slides off to the east with return southerly flow Sunday increasing the breeze (which you will notice), the humidity (which you won’t notice) and the cloud cover (gradually), but still a nice day overall, just maybe better for flying a kite in the afternoon. Our one unsettled day in this 5-day period comes Monday as a cold front slowly crosses the region with rain showers around. This front should be far enough offshore by Tuesday for dry weather to return, but during the Tuesday / Wednesday period while we get into cooler and dry weather again we will have to contend with what starts out as a northerly flow then switches to more easterly as low pressure forms south of New England and interacts with a “tilted over” high pressure area that starts out west of the region then bridges north of it.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind N up to 10 MPH becoming variable.
TONIGHT: Clear. Patchy frost interior lower elevations. Lows 35-42 interior lower elevations, 43-50 elsewhere. Wind variable under 10 MPH becoming S.
SUNDAY: Sun filtered by high clouds then fading with thicker clouds late-day. Highs 62-69. Wind S increasing to 10-20 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers overnight. Lows 53-60. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Humid. Highs 65-72. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers evening. Areas of fog. Damp. Lows 55-62. Wind variable 5-15 MPH shifting to N.
TUESDAY: Clearing. Drying out. Highs 63-70. Wind N to NE 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 45-52. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 56-63. Wind NE to E 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 10-14)
The first couple days of this period may see a continuation of an east to northeast flow with high pressure to the north and west of the region and low pressure offshore. We may have to watch that low to see if it gets close enough to bring more cloudiness or even some wet weather to portions of the area. During the October 12-13 weekend and beyond we should transition to more of a westerly flow with dry weekend weather and a risk of rain showers by October 14. Temperatures during this time should be not too far from seasonal normals.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 15-19)
Zonal (west to east) flow pattern expected with minor rain shower threats and mainly dry weather, changeable temperatures but not too drastically departed from normal values.

7:14AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 4-8)
Low pressure departs today, and in comes drier air and reinforcing cooling on a gusty breeze. Then high pressure moves overhead tonight into Saturday, bringing some interior areas a frost tonight but providing a bright and beautiful fall day Saturday. Nice weather will continue Sunday, milder after a chilly start, and not quite as bright as clouds advance due to warming aloft and low pressure to the west. This system will arrive with mild, humid air and a good chance of rain showers Monday, but should be moving along enough that drier air will return to the region during Tuesday as another high pressure area builds into the Great Lakes.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Any early rain showers ending. Clouds linger longest NH Seacoast and eastern MA, otherwise trending sunnier with passing clouds. Highs 56-63. Wind N increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clear. Patchy shallow fog over interior lower elevations and near ponds. Areas of frost except urban centers and immediate shore. Lows 32-39 except 40-47 urban centers and immediate shore. Wind N 10-20 MPH early, diminishing to under 10 MPH overnight.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind N up to 10 MPH becoming variable.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy frost interior lower elevations. Lows 35-42 interior lower elevations, 43-50 elsewhere. Wind variable under 10 MPH becoming S.
SUNDAY: Sun filtered by high clouds then fading with thicker clouds late-day. Highs 62-69. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 53-60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Humid. Highs 65-72. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers evening. Areas of fog. Damp. Lows 55-62. Wind variable 5-15 MPH shifting to N.
TUESDAY: Clearing. Drying out. Highs 63-70. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 9-13)
Low pressure offshore and high pressure to the west may not move much for a few days with dry weather and a seasonably cool northerly air flow resulting here, then high pressure should expand over the region for milder weather later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 14-18)
Some movement in features from west to east with a weakening low pressure trough bringing milder air and a rain shower risk October 14-15 followed by high pressure and drier weather returning October 16-18.

7:21AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 3-7)
The cool air is in control now and will be into the weekend before moderation occurs. The pattern is a little more active in the short term as the frontal boundary that brought the chill is sitting just to the south and will serve as a pathway for low pressure, which will bring a period of rain tonight and early Friday. High pressure brings dry weather for later Friday and much of the weekend. The next low pressure area brings wet weather as early as Sunday night and more likely Monday, accompanied by warmer and more humid air as well by that time.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 55-62. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Overcast. Periods of rain. Areas of drizzle and fog. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts near the coast.
FRIDAY: Overcast with rain tapering off early morning. Breaking clouds later morning then clearing afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind N 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Areas of fog forming. Risk of frost interior lower elevations. Lows 35-40 interior low elevations, 40-45 elsewhere except 45-50 urban centers. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 56-63. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Frost likely away from coastal and urban locations. Lows 30-35 interior lower elevations, 35-40 elsewhere except 40-45 urban centers and immediate shore. Wind calm.
SUNDAY: Sun filtered by high clouds then fading with thicker clouds late-day. Highs 60-67. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 53-60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Humid. Highs 65-72. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 8-12)
Drier and cooler air returns October 8 as low pressure moves away and high pressure sits to the west. October 9-12 look mainly dry overall but may be rather cool as the pattern blocks up somewhat with upper level low pressure to the east and a ridge to the west. Some moderation may occur later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 13-17)
High pressure should be in general control with mainly dry weather and variable temperatures.

7:15AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 2-6)
The only change to the forecast for this update is slowing the timing of the rain down for later Thursday to early Friday, shortening its duration slightly, and making it lighter. There is a saying used by some meteorologists: “All systems fail in a drought.” Well, we may not be in drought quite yet but if such events become habitual then we’ll be there sooner rather than later. The remainder of the forecast remains generally unchanged, from today’s warm start / chilly finish to the weekend that looks really nice but with 2 very chilly mornings and a risk of some areas seeing frost.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to general rain showers. Humid. Highs 70-77 morning, then falling afternoon. Wind W 10-20 MPH morning, shifting to N from north to south during the morning and early afternoon.
TONIGHT: Partial clearing. Patchy fog. Lows 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partial sunshine. Highs 55-62. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Periods of rain. Areas of drizzle and fog. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts near the coast.
FRIDAY: Overcast with rain tapering off early morning. Breaking clouds later morning and afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind N 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Areas of fog forming. Risk of frost interior lower elevations. Lows 35-40 interior low elevations, 40-45 elsewhere except 45-50 urban centers. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 56-63. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Frost likely away from coastal and urban locations. Lows 30-35 interior lower elevations, 35-40 elsewhere except 40-45 urban centers and immediate shore. Wind calm.
SUNDAY: Sun filtered by high clouds. Highs 60-67. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 7-11)
October 7 looks breezy and mild with late-day or nighttime rain showers as a cold front moves toward the region. October 8 may start wet then clears out, is breezy but cooler as the front moves offshore and high pressure approaches from the west. High pressure then parks over the region October 9-11 with dry weather, chilly mornings and milder afternoons.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 12-16)
Wash/rinse/repeat. Early outlook is for a similar set-up, slower-moving, dry weather continuing October 12-13 weekend, a quick warm-up followed by shower threat, then drying with a cool-down by the end of the period.

7:07AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 1-5)
October is here, and coincidentally here come some changes in the impact of the weather locally, although the overall large scale pattern isn’t changing too much – just more of a temporary readjustment. What happens is the ridge that has been centered in the east central US bringing persistent warmth to areas south and west of New England and warm spells into New England flattens and moves west a little bit and allows a significantly cooler air mass from Canada to visit New England for a few days, beginning tomorrow. But first, we get back into the warm wedge of air today as a warm front, which brought some early rain showers, passes through. You’ll even notice the humidity bump up during the day today and especially tonight, not to oppressive levels, but to the point you’ll feel the change. But a strong cold front will sink southward across the region Wednesday, which will be warmest early in the day, followed by a cool down. All the while, we’ll be somewhat unsettled, and though clouds break during the day today and we get into some sun, they return tonight and dominate through Wednesday along with the threat of additional rain showers. The front does not get all that far to the south and a wave of low pressure comes along it and provides a good chance of rain Thursday to early Friday. Any rain is welcomed as we have been quite dry overall of late. By Saturday, though, we’ll be under control of high pressure, which looks like a chilly but great early fall day.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Risk of rain showers morning. Highs 72-79. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Humid turning to damp. Highs 70-77 morning, then falling afternoon. Wind W 10-20 MPH morning, shifting to N from north to south during the morning and early afternoon.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain arriving west to east. Highs 53-60. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain likely. Patchy fog. Lows 48-55. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Overcast with rain tapering off morning. Breaking clouds afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind N 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Areas of fog forming. Lows 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 56-63. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 6-10)
High pressure moves overhead then offshore October 6, a dry day that starts cold with areas of frost and ends milder. October 7 looks warm but with late-day or nighttime rain showers from a cold front, which moves offshore followed by clearing and cooler weather October 8-9 before it moderates by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 11-15)
Overall pattern much the same, drier than average, up and down temperatures.

7:14AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 30-OCTOBER 4)
This final day of September, much like a good portion of the month, will be another fair weather day under high pressure. However, as we enter October, we’re going to change things up a bit over the first several days, with a warm front crossing the region Tuesday, bringing a spike of warm and somewhat more humid air into the area, followed by a cold front which will turn Wednesday into an “upside down” temperature day along with a rain shower threat. This front will introduce significantly cooler air, the coolest of the young autumn season so far, and a wave of low pressure moving along it as it slows down just south of here will bring a period of chilly rain later Thursday to early Friday, before it starts to dry out later Friday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 50-57. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of brief light rain through midday. More humid. Highs 70-77. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Humid turning to damp. Highs 70-77 morning, then falling afternoon. Wind W 10-20 MPH morning, shifting to N from north to south during the morning and early afternoon.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain arriving west to east. Highs 53-60. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain likely. Patchy fog. Lows 48-55. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Overcast with rain tapering off morning. Breaking clouds afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 5-9)
High pressure will dominate with great weather for the October 5-6 weekend, starting very chilly with many areas running risk of frost early October 5, then moderating later in the weekend. Early next week looks warm to start, a cold front passing by with showers, then a cooler shot of air, but timing is uncertain.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 10-14)
Overall pattern much the same, drier than average, up and down temperatures.

8:21AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 29-OCTOBER 3)
No changes again. Quick summary. Two nice day to end September, a quick shot of summer-like warmth to start October followed by a fairly strong but slow moving cold front which brings unsettled weather in during Wednesday and again later Thursday as a wave of low pressure moves along it, and after a warm start Wednesday things go the other way, turning much cooler by Thursday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 48-55. Wind E under 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-57. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Early sun, then lots of clouds with rain showers arriving. Highs 70-77 early, turning cooler later. Wind W 10-20 MPH shifting to N.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain late-day or night. Highs 58-65. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 4-8)
A low pressure wave departing the region October 4 will bring wet weather to start then a drying trend. High pressure in eastern Canada will bring fair and cool weather for the October 5-6 weekend followed by a moderating trend as the high center slides to the southeast early next week with continued mainly dry weather.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 9-13)
Mainly fair, milder start to this period then unsettled weather returns with a cool-down later as the same general pattern continues, but with slower transitions.

8:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 28-OCTOBER 2)
Again the ride is relatively easy, from a forecasting standpoint, with only one rain threat this weekend, from a cold front which will produce some showers tonight. Otherwise, it’s dry, with temperatures starting with a bit of summer feel today, then a more seasonably cool couple days to end September early in the week, and a quick reminder that summer left us not too long ago as we start October with another quick warm shot of air. How long that lasts into the second day of the month will depend on the timing of a cold front dropping southward out of Canada. Right now at several days out I am seeing signs of an “upside down” day, one that starts warm, and ends much cooler. This may need to be tweaked, of course, based on the timing of the front. The other wild card for day 5 is how much rain occurs. Also will need to fine-tune that the next few days.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. A few rain showers possible, any may be briefly heavy. Lows 58-65. Wind W 5-15 MPH, shifting to N overnight.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 48-55. Wind E under 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-57. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Early sun, then lots of clouds with rain showers arriving. Highs 70-77 early, turning cooler later. Wind W 10-20 MPH shifting to N.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 3-7)
High pressure in eastern Canada will provide cooler air for this 5-day period, but may be far enough north to allow an area of low pressure to bring a period of rain about October 4. We’ll have to watch for an upper level low to produce a few showers October 5 but otherwise the October 5-6 weekend looks mainly dry, just cool.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 8-12)
Slower transitions means we come out of the cool spell into a more gradual moderation that lasts much of this period. Also expecting dry weather to be dominant with no strong sign of a turn to a wetter pattern at this point.