DAYS 1-5 (JULY 16-20)

This short-lived stint of heat and humidity will last one more day before a cold front puts an end to it, kind of. Ahead of that front is a trough, which may trigger a few showers and thunderstorms as it approaches the region today, and the front itself will quietly amble its way overnight into but once again probably not all the way through the region, and will be sitting around the South Coast region basically from Saturday through Monday, bringing the temperatures down, but allowing the humidity levels to stay on the higher side (noticeable but not oppressive) and as we have seen so many times recently, disturbances coming along this boundary will bring us chances for some rainfall. Timing the rain chances is rather difficult, but right now Saturday evening / night looks like the wettest part of the weekend, but shower chances will probably continue Sunday and into Monday as well. I’d love to say with confidence that Tuesday would be drying out with high pressure moving in, but we may actually have an upper low moving in with another risk of shower and thunderstorm activity. As bad as this sounds, this is the signal of a change in the pattern which is eventually going to bring us into a drier regime. More to come on that, but first the detailed forecast for this 5-day period…

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Scattered to broken linear showers and thunderstorms forming early afternoon southwestern NH and central MA moving east southeast, peaking in the I-95 and I-90 areas mid afternoon before weakening while traveling toward the South Coast by late afternoon. Highs 84-91, cooler some coastal areas. Wind SW 5-15 MPH but some coastal sea breezes developing.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog late. Lows 66-73. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH becoming variable.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. A possible morning shower, then scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 78-85. Dew point upper to middle 60s. Wind variable to N, shifting to E, up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog mostly in the morning. Highs 72-79. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Possible showers. Patches of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Highs 76-83. Dew point 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 21-25)

A little more confident that we enter a pattern where we’ll be in low pressure troughing aloft more often than not, but also with systems moving along as they come through the trough, with limited time for precipitation. This pattern is cooler and somewhat drier.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 26-30)

Current thinking is that the pattern of DAYS 6-10 will continue here as well.

C-19 Chat Post – July 16 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 15-19)

Early this morning there are some patches of fog and stratus in valleys well inland, and in sections of southeastern NH and eastern MA, and if you’re under one of these you may be thinking “here we go again”, but today will be different. All of that low stuff will burn off during this morning and we’ll have a day much more full of sun than any we’ve seen in recent memory. Also, the dew point may come down a bit from yesterday, although it will warm beyond yesterday’s levels – so basically, the feel of summer is coming back! I do think today it will take place without anything more than the most remote chance of an isolated shower popping up somewhere, so remote that it’s not even showing up in my detailed forecast that follows this discussion. But that will change on Friday, not drastically, but enough to put it in the forecast as we see a cold front approaching from the west while some heat and humidity remain in place. I don’t think Friday’s activity will end up very widespread, but we will have to watch for some showers and storms to fire up and move into the region during the afternoon hours. Anything that forms will vanish by Friday evening, but that front will be nearby this coming weekend, and its exact placement will help determine where showers and thunderstorms occur. I’m not looking for a weekend wash-out by any stretch, but just note that we’ll be unsettled once again. This may linger into Monday depending on how far offshore that front is able to push – something that’s slightly indeterminable at this point…

TODAY: Areas of low clouds and fog until mid morning, then mostly sunny. Highs 83-90, cooler some coastal areas. Dew point middle 60s to near 70 early may trend downward slightly. Wind W up to 10 MPH but developing coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches forming. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs 84-91 except cooler in some coastal areas. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with some coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog late. Lows 66-73. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 82-89. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH and gusty.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle 60s to near 70. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Areas of fog mostly in the morning. Highs 78-85. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Possible showers. Patches of fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Highs 80-87. Dew point 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 20-24)

Some guidance is a little more emphatic about troughing and more unsettled weather during this period, and given the recent pattern my leaning is just to include a daily risk of showers and thunderstorms but plenty of dry time as well, and temperatures that don’t include excessive heat, but don’t fall all that far below normal either. More evaluation needed.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 25-29)

Pattern relaxation, westerly flow, a couple disturbances with shower and thunderstorm opportunities and mostly near normal though slightly variable temperatures.

C-19 Chat Post – July 15 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 14-18)

We take one more step toward a more classic summer feel today but we’re not quite there yet. After a fairly overcast day with a few showers moving through yesterday, last night we saw the formation of fog in much of the region as the temperature which was already on the cooler side met a rising dew point. Today, they both rise further, and it’ll be tough to break up both the fog and the cloud cover, but while many areas do eventually lose the fog as the temperature out-rises the dew point, the dew point will climb high enough so that you’ll notice it. What happens during the day today to our west is that a disturbance moving eastward will trigger some pretty decent thunderstorms, which will make it into western portions of the WHW forecast area later today into this evening. What happens from there is dependent on how much daytime heating we can manage further east. Glancing at the short range set of models, I see a variety of outcomes, with some of them killing the convection completely while others hold onto scattered but weaker showers/storms as they move eastward. I’m basically playing this in the middle today with the chance of some scattered to isolated activity making it all the way east, but in much weaker form than it started out. Finally we get back into the typical feel of summer for Thursday through Saturday as high pressure builds offshore and aloft as well, setting up warm to hot and fairly humid conditions, though a westerly breeze (vs. southerly today) may help dry us out slightly on Thursday, at least in terms of the dew point going down a bit. It may not be that noticeable as it will be warmer / hotter. The dew point creeps back up Friday into Saturday, not to astronomical levels, but certainly humid enough. I’m not thinking the chances of isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms are really there at all Thursday, as I was yesterday, but keeping them in the forecast for Friday, again very low coverage. Saturday, as a cold front approaches, the chance of showers and storms increase. That front is likely to struggle its way through the region during Sunday, which will be unsettled with additional showers and storms around as it stands now…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog especially this morning. Highs 76-83, cooler Cape Cod. Dew upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind S increasing to 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A passing evening shower or thunderstorm possible, mainly north and west of Boston and especially west of I-95. Patchy fog redeveloping. Lows 65-72. Dew point upper to middle 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH, could be briefly gusty near any showers/storms.

THURSDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 83-90. Dew point middle 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs 84-91 except cooler in some coastal areas. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog late. Lows 66-73. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 82-89. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH and gusty.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle 60s to near 70. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Areas of fog mostly in the morning. Highs 78-85. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 19-23)

A few days of mainly dry weather are expected with a westerly air flow aloft and high pressure in control at the surface for the early to mid portion of next week before the next frontal system brings higher humidity and a shower/thunderstorm threat after that.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 24-28)

The trend to less active weather in terms of shower and storm threats, still present but less prominent with overall drier with mostly seasonable summer warmth, maybe a hotter day or two.

C-19 Chat Post – July 14 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 13-17)

While we start this 5-day period considerably cooler than normal, with a frontal boundary sitting to our south, taking until sometime Wednesday to lift across the region, we are about to see some changes in our pattern, eventually leading to a more typical summertime set-up. But these are slow changes, first with the aforementioned warm front lifting through the region gradually, causing a couple more rounds of showers – a few around this morning, possibly a few more around overnight or early Wednesday. Later Wednesday, we’ll be in the warm sector but will lack complete clearing while a cold front approaches from the west. This cold front will be losing its identity as it pushes eastward as the air mass behind it, while a bit drier, is not really any cooler than the air mass it will be meeting ahead of it. However, with some daytime heating and instability, expect thunderstorms to fire off west of here, in NY State, during the day Wednesday, and remain strongest as they move into western New England, west of the WHW forecast area, during the afternoon, fading as they move eastward into the forecast area during the late afternoon and early evening, with just remnant activity probably all that is left, maybe never reaching the eastern coastal areas at all except for a few isolated survivors. So, if you have outdoor plans today and/or tomorrow, while it won’t be perfect summer weather, much of the time will indeed be rain-free. Just keep an eye on radar if you can, just in case. When we get to the Thursday-Saturday period, we have 3-days of more typical summertime heat and humidity as high pressure builds aloft and surface high pressure slides off the Mid Atlantic Coast. Each of these days will have the risk of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, but don’t read into this as being the same soaking wet pattern we’ve been in. The chance of any activity will be minimal Thursday, just isolated at best, and with no more than a slight up-tick in the chance and coverage on Friday. It will be Saturday when we see a slightly better chance of showers and storms as a cold front moves into the region, but don’t get too nervous about your weekend plans at this point.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of passing showers until mid morning. Areas of fog early. Highs 65-72. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of showers overnight. Areas of fog forming. Lows 58-65. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog early morning with a possible shower. Highs 77-84, cooler Cape Cod. Dew point rising to upper 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possibly early, especially west of I-95. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated late-day showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 83-90 except cooler in some coastal areas. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs 84-91 except cooler in some coastal areas. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog late. Lows 66-73. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 82-89. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH and gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 18-22)

A weak westerly flow will become dominant but to start the period a cold front will likely remain in the vicinity for July 18 with additional showers and thunderstorms possible before drier weather for a few days until the next system returns the chance of showers/storms later in the period. This is a departure from the much wetter pattern we’d been experiencing.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 23-27)

The trend to less active weather in terms of shower and storm threats, still present but less prominent with overall drier with mostly seasonable summer warmth, maybe a hotter day or two.

C-19 Chat Post – July 13 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 12-16)

The overall pattern doesn’t change as it remains active, but the direct impacts on our region will bring a shift from wet and cool weather to more classic summertime weather over the course of the next several days. Initially, we are wet and cool today as a frontal boundary sits near the South Coast today with a wave of low pressure moving along it in response to a passing disturbance aloft. This will produce widespread showers, some heavy, including the risk of thunderstorms, although the immediate South Coast may have to wait a while to get into that rainfall while other areas are wettest this morning with a drying trend this afternoon as the disturbance exits. A subtle push southward of high pressure to the north will be enough to nudge that frontal boundary a bit further south tonight into Tuesday, which will be a mainly cloudy but mostly rain-free period of time for the region. Just a patch of drizzle may visit a few locations Tuesday in response to a broad onshore flow from the east, bringing in some low level moisture. After this, things start to change as high pressure riding starts to build in and a surface high to the south pushes that frontal boundary back to the north. A round of light rain or showers may occur Tuesday night or early Wednesday along the boundary as it pushes through, and Wednesday itself will be the day we transition into a warmer and more humid air mass, but a disturbance coming along from the west may trigger additional showers and thunderstorms, with timing somewhat uncertain and coverage also uncertain, as it will be at least partially dependent on how much sunshine and resultant solar heating we get to help destabilize the atmosphere. So that will be something to watch and fine-tune for Wednesday’s forecast. Thursday and Friday look like more classic mid summer days for us, very warm to hot with higher humidity and the opportunity for isolated to scattered late-day showers and thunderstorms, but many areas rain-free most of if not all of the time.

TODAY: Cloudy. Numerous to widespread showers with possible thunder through midday, tapering to just isolated light showers this afternoon but heavier showers may occur South Coast region through mid afternoon. Areas of fog. Highs 66-73, coolest NH Seacoast, warmest South Coast of MA & RI. Dew point middle to upper 60s except near 70 South Coast. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH except SE to S nearer the South Coast.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Spotty light drizzle possible. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point lowering to upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind E to NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Spotty light drizzle possible. Areas of fog in the morning. Highs 65-72. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog forming. Lows 58-65. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and areas of fog early to mid morning. Partly sunny late morning through midday. Variably cloudy afternoon with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 77-84. Dew point rising to upper 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated late-day showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 83-90 except cooler in some coastal areas. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs 84-91 except cooler in some coastal areas. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 17-21)

Large scale pattern is still somewhat active with a westerly flow and embedded disturbances. With some heat and humidity in place and a trough and frontal system approaching and passing through from west to east sometime during the July 17-18 weekend there will be an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms at some point, favoring later Saturday and Sunday, but to be fine-tuned as we go through this week. Slightly quieter weather for a couple days behind the passage of that system with near to above normal temperatures but shower/storm threat may return before the period is over depending on the timing of the next disturbance.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 22-26)

Similar pattern, but a little less active overall, still producing a shower and storm threat from time to time especially early and again toward the end of the period.

C-19 Chat Post – July 12 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 11-15)

No big changes. Saturday may not have been stellar but did feature some sun despite lots of clouds for a good part of the day. The region overall saw most of its sun later in the day, and today will be somewhat reversed. The sun will be most dominant early in southeastern NH, eastern MA, and RI, although if you are in areas west of there you may have already lost it as of 7:30 a.m. if you even had any at all, as clouds are prevalent there, and some of them are moving northeastward and will be interrupting the sun in many areas soon. Eventually, the day turns out mostly cloudy, but rain-free. It’s not until later tonight that the rain returns, but this is going to lead to quite the wet and cool day for Monday, as a warm front approaches from the south. And that front will be in no hurry to pass through the region, so even though the best support for rain departs during Monday evening, Tuesday likely ends up as a cloudy and cool day, just with less or no rain. Finally, that front should amble its way northward through the region by Wednesday, but a disturbance from the west is likely to keep lots of clouds around along with triggering the chance of showers and thunderstorms. At this point, I’m not sure on the timing and coverage of those showers/storms, but will sort that out over the next few updates. By Thursday, we’re building high pressure in at the surface and aloft, so it looks like a return to the feel of summer at that time.

TODAY: Partly sunny then mostly cloudy. Highs 68-75 coast, 75-82 interior. Dew point Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arriving late evening and overnight. Slight chance of a thunderstorm. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Highs 65-72. Dew point middle 60s. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain tapering off. Areas of fog. Lows 59-66. Dew point near 60. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Highs 65-72. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60s. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Highs 76-83. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. Highs 80-87, cooler in a few coastal areas. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 16-20)

The general pattern will feature westerly flow aloft and southwesterly flow at the surface, but a series of disturbances will approach from the west. This pattern features warm to borderline hot weather, higher humidity, and daily opportunities for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 21-25)

A similar pattern may continue but with a slightly lesser chance of showers and thunderstorms day to day.

C-19 Chat Post – July 11 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 10-14)

A so-so, not-too-bad weekend, especially compared to some of our recent weather, is what we’ll have. We still have a trough of low pressure moving through the New England area that will be flattening out and moving away later, and a surface boundary that is still making its way through the region from northwest to southeast. The day starts with lots of clouds and there is a swath of showers from central MA into southeastern NH and a few more showers and thunderstorms near Cape Cod and the Islands as of mid morning. These will all diminish as they move east northeastward, and as we get into more sun during the day the atmosphere remains just unstable enough for a few more pop up showers, favoring areas south of I-90 and especially the South Coast region. Finally, tonight and a good part of Sunday will feature quiet weather as a weak area of high pressure moves across the region. But a warm front will start to approach from the south later Sunday so that we’ll already be back in the clouds and there may be some areas of light rain around by evening. This weekend set-up does allow most areas to salvage most of the time rain-free, even if temperatures are running slightly below seasonal averages. Better than nothing. But we’re not done with the unsettled pattern quite yet, and Monday is going to make that very well known with more wet weather as that warm front moves ever-so-slowly northward into our region. It may take this front until sometime Tuesday or even Wednesday to fully pass through, although the support for rainfall will drop off as we get to those days, so expect a variable amount of cloudiness and some chance of shower activity, with a gradual warming trend to be taking place.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Morning showers central MA to southeastern NH diminishing as they move eastward. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms mid morning and again this afternoon south of I-90 especially South Coast. Highs 73-80. Dew point middle to lower 60s. Wind N shifting to E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog forming over interior lower elevations. Lows 58-65. Dew point upper 50s to 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 70-75 coast, 75-80 interior. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Highs 68-75. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers and a possible thunderstorm. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 70-77. Dew point 60s. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60s. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Highs 76-83. Dew point 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 15-19)

The general pattern will feature more westerly flow aloft and southwesterly flow at the surface, but a series of disturbances will approach from the west. This pattern features warm to borderline hot weather, higher humidity, and daily opportunities for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Day-to-day details can’t be known in this pattern too far in advance.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 20-24)

A similar pattern may continue but with a slightly lesser chance of showers and thunderstorms day to day. Low confidence and a lot of re-evaluation to come for these days.

C-19 Chat Post – July 10 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 9-13)

Tropical Storm Elsa will cut a path across southeastern New England today, its center crossing RI and southeastern MA between late morning and early afternoon, exiting the coast mid afternoon, and accelerating away via the Gulf of Maine by tonight. The impacts here will be moderate. As is typical with a tropical system or one just starting to undergo its transition to non-tropical, the heaviest (steadiest) rainfall will be to the left of the center, with the stronger wind gusts to the right of the center, though there we will also see some heavy shower and thunderstorm clusters. Thunder may occur with the heavier rain to the left of the track as well. The tornado threat, also typical with a system like this, will be limited to an area from about Plymouth County of MA and the South Coast of RI eastward through Cape Cod, but this is also minimal (just not a zero threat). Our biggest issues with this system will be localized flooding due to heavy rain after an already wet week for most of the region mostly near and to the west of where the center tracks, and isolated pockets of wind damage and resultant power outages mostly near and to the east of where the center tracks. This will be over rather quickly, so don’t expect an all-day event. Some areas, especially south and west of Boston, may be seeing breaks of sun before mid afternoon and even areas to the north and east may get in on that before the day is over. Tonight, a weak frontal boundary moves into the region from the west and may set off a few showers and possible thunderstorms, with the greatest chance of thunder being near and south of I-90. This boundary will still be around for a while on Saturday before settling off to the south, so the chance of a few showers and thunderstorms is still in play, again favoring areas mostly south of I-90. This activity will be gone in time for a quiet Saturday night into Sunday, weather-wise, but you’ll notice an increase in cloudiness again during Sunday as that boundary decides it wants to be a warm front and starts a northward creep back into the region, which will take until late Monday to happen, so we’ll be back into some unsettled weather later Sunday through Monday with lots of clouds and occasional showers. It remains to be seen if the front pushes its way all the way through by Tuesday to put us back into a sector of warmer and muggy weather. Some guidance says yes, other guidance says no, and I’m “on the fence” about it myself, so will cover both scenarios with generic wording in the detailed forecast below, then fine-tune as needed.

TODAY: Cloudy through early afternoon with areas of fog / drizzle / rain to start, then a swath of heavier rain left of Elsa’s track and numerous moderate to heavy showers right of Elsa’s track mid morning through early afternoon from south southwest to north northeast across the region. Embedded thunderstorms possible all areas. Clouds may break for partial sun from southwest to northeast mid afternoon on. Highs 68-75. Dew point upper 60s. Wind E shifting to N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts left of Elsa’s track, SE shifting to S 15-25 MPH with higher gusts right of Elsa’s track. Pockets of damaging wind may occur, including brief isolated small tornadoes, especially from Plymouth County and coastal RI eastward through noon. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts during the afternoon but diminishing later.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A few showers and a chance of a thunderstorm, favoring areas near and south of I-90. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point lower 60s. Wind W to variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, favoring areas south of I-90. Highs 75-82. Dew point falling to upper 50s except remaining in the lower 60s South Coast. Wind variable to N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog forming over interior lower elevations. Lows 58-65. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 75-82, cooler coastal areas.. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60s. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few showers and thunderstorms. Highs 75-82. Dew point 60s. Wind variable to S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 14-18)

A frontal boundary and a couple of disturbances passing through the region will continue the opportunity for some showers and thunderstorms at times July 14-16. Optimistic for a drier trend for the July 17-18 weekend with a bit more heat possible. The entire forecast is low confidence at this time.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 19-23)

Lower confidence in the medium range forecast at this time, but still thinking it may be a little more “classic” summertime here with a bit more heat and humidity with a couple shower and thunderstorm opportunities.