DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 23-27)

Autumn arrived at 2:50 a.m. with the equinox occurring, and our new season will get underway with something familiar – an unsettled weekend. However, today is not going to be a washed-out day for a good part of the WHW forecast area, and the reason is one that was outline previously as this tough forecast was being formulated over the last handful of days. Coming to pass is the source of dry air at mid levels born of “confluent flow” between high pressure in east central Canada and a low pressure trough to its east. This drying effect is pronounced in northeastern New England, i.e., Maine, with that dry air being transported southward into southern New England just as a rain shield, far in advance of Ophelia (a named system set to make landfall in NC). Basically, the forecast for “part 1” of the event today is the same: Rain shield to the South Coast early morning, then slowly advancing northward as the day goes along, but struggling to do so against dry air. The most solid rain shield will remain south of I-90 and the steadiest rain will indeed be closer to the South Coast. Once you get north of I-90, as the rain tries to move in there, it will be eroded by the dry air being supplied from Maine (a-yeahp), and once you are around the MA/NH border, you may not see anything more than sprinkly very light rain which struggles to even dampen the ground. By the time it even gets up there, the dry air still holding on and the tailing off of the initial rain plume will just clear the region of any rainfall this evening, with just patchy drizzle becoming more likely due to a persistent northeast flow from the Atlantic. Even that will take all day to get its act together, so I’m not expecting a lot in the way of low clouds/drizzle until after dark, and first closer to the eastern coastal areas before it can penetrate inland. Meanwhile, Ophelia will have gone inland in the Southeast and the low will rapidly weaken and start to dissipate, also losing any tropical characteristics. The remnant low will then emerge off the Mid Atlantic Coast and travel south of New England later Sunday and early Monday, when we have our best chance of rainfall across the region. When this is all done, I expect 1 to 2 inch rainfall amounts along the South Coast, dropping off to around 1/2 inch in the I-90 belt and less as you go north from there, again with a good amount of that coming in part 2, especially northern areas. High pressure from Canada will push the wet weather out of here during Monday, though I’m not sure how much clearing we might see later Monday. Will revisit and refine that tomorrow. Also, we still have an upper disturbance that has to swing through the region Tuesday which may also result in a fair amount of cloud cover, but only a remote chance of a light shower, remote enough that I still don’t have it in my forecast. Finally, dry, bright, cool weather arrives by Wednesday as the high pressure area in southern Canada takes full control.

TODAY: Cloudy. Rain South Coast all day, advancing northward with time. Highs 60-67, coolest eastern coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts likely especially Cape Cod.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Any lingering rain ends / dissipates. Areas of drizzle/fog overnight favoring eastern coastal locations. Lows 52-59. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts near the South Coast.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Areas of drizzle and fog. Periods of rain. Highs 57-64, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of drizzle and fog. Periods of rain, again favoring southern areas. Lows 50-57. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mainly cloudy morning with periods of rain, best chance south and east. Partial sun may develop afternoon. Highs 60-67. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind N 5-15 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY: Lots of clouds – intervals of sun. Highs 60-67. Wind N 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 46-53. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 28 – OCTOBER 2)

High pressure will provide fair weather for the final 3 days of September as we see a gradual temperature moderation. The end of the period may see low pressure trying to push back toward our region from the south, introducing the possibility of unsettled weather, but this is a low confidence outlook at this point.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 3-7)

Potentially unsettled start to the period followed by a drier trend again. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 22-26)

High pressure remains in control with another day of very nice weather for the final full day of astronomical summer. Autumn arrives at 2:50 a.m. Saturday with the vernal equinox (the moment the sun is directly over the equator on its journey to the southern hemisphere, where its their first day of spring). For the weekend, we turn our attention to a moisture plume associated with low pressure well to our south. While this low center, which may acquire enough tropical characteristics to be named, drifts to the coast of NC where it moves onshore there, its associated moisture plume elongates northward in a southerly flow aloft and makes a charge at southern New England. At the same time, an amplified higher latitude pattern with a high pressure ridge in east central Canada and a deepening low pressure trough further east in Canada will create a road block of sorts for the moisture / storm to the south. One surface high (the one governing today’s weather) will slide to the southeast and leave a little weakness in the pressure field to aid in the rain’s northward progress as we get to early Saturday, but as this is happening a second surface high to the northwest of it will begin pushing toward New England. So now you see the set-up for a tough day 2 forecast – just how fast and how far north does the rain push before it gets obliterated by dry air supplied by the systems to our north? Earlier onset / best chance of steadiest rain and most amounts will be the South Coast region, while the further north you go the onset time, ability to maintain steady rain, and ability to generate measurable rain drops off quickly, as well as the amount of time this can occur, because by Saturday evening the dry air to the north should already be in the process of slicing right into the rain area. On regional radar it will look somewhat like the rain splits in two with one area drifting into NY while another peels off to the east off Cape Cod. Either way you see it, we have a dry interlude where it rained, and continued dryness in any areas the rain never quite reaches. The greatest chance for the latter are places from around the MA/NH border into NH where it may only sprinkle lightly or not rain at all from the initial push of rain. All during this, with high pressure to the north and low pressure well south southwest of our region, we’ll set up a cool northeasterly air flow with below normal temperatures for the weekend. Patches of drizzle can evolve eventually, favoring the east-facing coastal communities where the wind will be directly off the ocean. This is most likely to happen later Saturday night into Sunday. During Sunday and Sunday night, and into early Monday, what remains from the low to the south will make its way northward through the Mid Atlantic, and then as a remnant low into the waters south of New England. It’s during this time when our region can see additional periods of rain along with continued areas of drizzle and some developing fog, though the gusty wind that had developed especially along the South Coast during Saturday will ease off some, because low pressure will be much weaker. Eventually, the stronger features to our north will push that remnant low away later Monday, but we still have to wait for upper level low pressure to cross the region through Tuesday. This means Monday would probably remain generally cloudy even if it starts to dry out in terms of rain chances, and Tuesday would be day that if any sun was to shine, it would help trigger lots of clouds, but I think the air would be dry enough to prevent much shower activity from developing. Those days will also feature a continuation of below normal temperatures for the early days of autumn. Also, the wind that had eased off a little Sunday would pick back up again as the pressure gradient tightened up behind now-regorganizing low pressure and the high to the north and west.

TODAY: Sunshine becomes filtered through an increasing shield of high clouds. Highs 66-73, coolest coast. Wind variable becoming E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: High overcast. Low elevation ground fog patches. Lows 47-54. Wind E under 10 MPH, calm in some low elevations.

SATURDAY: Overcast may be thin enough for some sun in the morning-midday especially north of I-90 otherwise thickening overcast with time. Rain likely South Coast, tries to push north but very slowly and may struggle to get to areas north of I-90 doing so only as patchy and light. Highs 61-68 with a cool-down to under 60 especially near east-facing shores by late in the day. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH but 15-25 MPH South Coast including late-day higher gusts around Cape Cod.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Any lingering rain ends / dissipates. Areas of drizzle/fog overnight favoring eastern coastal locations. Lows 52-59. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts near the South Coast.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Areas of drizzle and fog. Periods of rain, favoring the South Coast to I-90 region. Chance of rain at times further to the north. Highs 58-65, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of drizzle and fog. Periods of rain, again favoring southern areas. Lows 50-57. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mainly cloudy. Best chance of rain southeastern areas morning. Highs 60-67. Wind N 10-20 MPH, a few higher gusts possible.

MONDAY NIGHT: Breaking clouds. Lows 50-57. Wind N 5-15 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY: Lots of clouds – intervals of sun. Highs 60-67. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 27 – OCTOBER 1)

High pressure builds in from Canada with a stretch of dry weather from mid week to at last the start of the weekend (September 30), but may have to watch to our south once again for low pressure threatening the region with rain by the end of the period (October 1).

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 2-6)

General pattern should feature high pressure to our north and the tendency for additional low pressure to our south, leaving our region somewhat vulnerable to battle zone unsettled weather, but my continued leaning is that high pressure to the north will be close enough / strong enough to keep us drier more often than wet.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 21-25)

High pressure hangs on through Friday with fair and pleasant September weather for the last 2 days of summer, but while this is going on, east-facing and south-facing shores will have high rip current risks due to distant Hurricane Nigel’s long-period swell, so keep that in mind if you have plans to be at the coast and in the water. Meanwhile, subtropical low pressure will develop and organize off the US Southeast Coast and drift north to northwest toward the coastline late this week. Its northern rain shield will make a run at southern New England, but I’m still of the meteorological opinion that guidance is over-forecasting the scope and aggressiveness of this rain shield, and while I’ve introduced a lot of cloudiness to the forecast for both weekend days, I don’t think the rain is going to blast into the region and wash out Saturday. I think some of it gets to the South Coast especially Cape Cod, but much of it runs into dry air in place and gets obliterated, and then peels off to the east, waiting for a weaker version of low pressure, which has interacted with the coastline now for many hours, to come drifting northward to bring some wet weather to the region on Sunday. After that, it will get shoved southeastward Monday by high pressure in Canada, though an upper level disturbance swinging through will result in lingering clouds and the chance of some lingering showers that day, if all goes as I expect it to. Reminder: Fall arrives with the autumnal equinox at 2:50 a.m. Saturday.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Ground fog patches low elevations. Lows 47-54. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 67-74, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: High clouds increase. Ground fog patches low elevations. Lows 48-55. Wind calm.

SATURDAY: High overcast, except thicker/lower overcast may bring some rain to South Coast / Cape Cod region. Highs 66-73. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 53-60. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain, favoring the South Coast but possible anywhere. Highs 62-69. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lingering showers and/or drizzle. Patchy fog. Lows 55-62. Wind E to N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Lots of clouds. A possible shower. Highs 65-72. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 26-30)

High pressure builds in from Canada with a stretch of generally fair weather during the middle of next week with near to below normal temperatures, then a moderating trend when a disturbance may swing into the region with some unsettled weather toward the end of the period, but less confident of that.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 1-5)

October’s early days show hints of weak westerly flow over our region, but a Rex block type set-up with high pressure dominating eastern Canada while low pressure hangs out to our south. This leaves the region vulnerable to battle zone unsettled weather, but for now my initial leaning is that high pressure to the north will be close enough / strong enough to keep us mainly fair. Long way to go to sort out the early October weather…

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 20-24)

The next 3 days (through Friday) will be dominated by high pressure with fair weather with mild days and cool nights. Late in the week we’ll be watching the development of a low pressure area near the US Southeast Coast. Most guidance tries to push this low somewhat to the north over the weekend, but takes its rain shield more vigorously north, now early enough to arrive sometime on Saturday. But that’s not necessarily my forecast just yet. I’ve seen a very similar set-up be handled incorrectly by medium range guidance before, with the computer simulation taking the rain shield too quickly and too solidly north, when in reality the high pressure area holds stronger and dry air associated with it gives the rain area a buzz cut, and a deflection. I’m leaning toward this scenario at the moment, which if it is the case, we’ll salvage Saturday mainly dry around the region, despite increased cloud cover, and then Sunday would be the day with a higher rain chance as the low pressure area, now weakening, got closer to the region. Fine-tuning of this outlook will take place as needed through the week. One thing that is not uncertain – fall arrives at 2:50 a.m. Saturday with the occurrence of the autumnal equinox.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 69-76. Wind NW-N up to 10 MPH, turning NE in some eastern coastal areas.

TONIGHT: Clear. Ground fog patches low elevations. Lows 47-54, coolest low elevations inland. Wind N under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Ground fog patches low elevations. Lows 48-55. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 67-74, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: High clouds increase. Ground fog patches low elevations. Lows 48-55. Wind calm.

SATURDAY: High overcast, may thicken up enough for some rain near the South Coast or Cape Cod. Highs 66-73. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 53-60. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain, favoring the South Coast. Highs 62-69. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 25-29)

If my scenario works out as expected, high pressure to the north pushes surface low pressure to the southeast of our area but an upper low means lots of clouds and maybe a few showers around on September 25 before the high pressure area takes over with another stretch of dry weather. Temperatures would cool down early period and warm up again later.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 30 – OCTOBER 4)

Guidance is divergent out this far, but the general pattern to me looks weak hybrid – a bit of a zonal (west to east) flow over our region but still a tendency to see high pressure to the north of the region and low pressure to the south of the region, which can always set up potential battle zones. Leaning toward a drier pattern with no major temperatures swings to end September and begin October.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 19-23)

Down the home stretch of summer 2023, and in an ironically symbolic way, we’re not going to see wet weather, but another stretch of dry weather similar to the holiday weekends that opened and closed the “summer vacation season”. High pressure will build toward and into the region today and sit around through late this week, keeping it fair, dry, and pleasant. Today will be a breezy day behind yesterday’s low pressure area and ahead of the approaching high center, but a weaker gradient will mean lighter winds but also coastal sea breeze for the balance of the week. We may see an increase in cloud cover later Saturday ahead of low pressure to our south, but at this point in time I’m not thinking that system will move fast enough to get here sooner, so I expect fair weather to start the weekend too. Saturday is the first day of autumn with an early morning equinox occurrence.

TODAY: Sun and patchy clouds. Highs 70-77. Wind W-NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-57. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 69-76. Wind NW-N up to 10 MPH, turning NE in some eastern coastal areas.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Ground fog patches low elevations. Lows 47-54, coolest low elevations inland. Wind N under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Ground fog patches low elevations. Lows 48-55. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 67-74, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Ground fog patches low elevations. Lows 48-55. Wind calm.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 66-73. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 24-28)

Clouds, higher humidity, and rain chances September 24-26 depending on how far north low pressure to our south gets against high pressure to the north. The high should win out again with dry weather returning late period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 29 – OCTOBER 3)

Zonal (west to east) flow pattern expected. Watch for a frontal system swinging through about September 30 with the best shot of wet weather. Otherwise, the pattern looks fairly dry. Warmest early in the period, cool shot following the frontal system.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 18-22)

The final 5 days of summer will contain one rainy Monday and 4 nice days. We’ll get the nasty day out of the way first as low pressure tracks just offshore today. This track is a little bit of good news though. Even though we don’t “need” any rain right now, and this looks like a healthy 1 to 2 inch rainfall for most of the region, a band of potentially 2+ inch rainfall will stay south and east of areas that were hit hardest by recent flash flooding. An offshore low track prevents a warm sector from coming onto land in southeastern New England, greatly reducing the threat of damaging wind gusts from thunderstorms, with now only some embedded thunder possible from more elevated convection – not typically the kind that will produce hail and/or wind damage. Also, this system will not carry much wind with it – just a little gusty along the coast / Cape Cod, but not really any damage. Despite that though, we do have to watch for a few vulnerable/weakened trees from recent rain and wind, so I can’t 100% rule out isolated power outages due to any that might succumb. Conditions improve tonight as low pressure pulls away, and then from Tuesday through Friday we’re governed by high pressure with fair weather – cool nights and mild days, with a slight warming trend as the week goes along. Enjoy that!

TODAY: Cloudy. Rain overspreads the region early and continues all day. Heaviest rain and possible embedded thunder, mostly to the east of I-95. Highs 63-70. Wind SE 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts around the South Coast.

TONIGHT: Cloudy evening with rain ending and patches of fog developing. One more quick shower or thunderstorm may occur mainly near and north of I-90 late evening. Breaking clouds but areas of fog continuing overnight. Lows 55-62. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 67-74. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-57. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Ground fog patches low elevations. Lows 47-54, coolest low elevations inland. Wind N under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 67-74, coolest coast. Wind calm then NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Ground fog patches low elevations. Lows 50-57. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 23-27)

Dry weather hangs on into the weekend for the first day of autumn September 23, but we’ll then be vulnerable to the return of cloudiness, higher humidity, and a rainfall threat September 24-26 as one low pressure area approaches and moves in from the south, and a second one arrives from the west on its heels. Dry, cooler weather should end the period as the unsettled weather pushes away.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 28 – OCTOBER 2)

Dry weather for the most part with a return of a zonal flow pattern, but around mid period a disturbance may bring some showers through the region. No big storms or extreme temperatures are indicated.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 17-21)

The last Sunday of summer will be a splendid one with a cool start, a nice warm-up, dry air, and lots of blue sky with a few decorative clouds around as high pressure builds in from the west. It’s a small high though and won’t be around long. You’ll notice higher clouds approaching from the southwest later in the day ahead of our next system, set to put an exclamation point on the wet summer season on Monday with another bout of unsettled weather. This system will consist of a vigorous upper level trough swinging through from west to east while a pretty decent surface low gets going and passes over or just offshore of southeastern New England by Monday night. While the event starts with some bands of showers and rain in morning hours of Monday it will consolidate into a pretty solid rain area Monday afternoon and evening, along with some potential embedded thunderstorms. The latter is most likely to occur close to the track of the surface low – i.e., RI and southeastern MA, where I can’t rule out an isolated severe storm or two with the potential for damaging wind gusts and/or hail. That will be one thing to eye closely with this system, as well as the healthy rainfall delivery, which can impact areas already hit by flash flooding recently, as well as creating some flooding issues in other areas. That said, I do not expect this event to rival what happened one week ago, so that’s some good news. The other good news is the system doesn’t hang around. It moves out quickly. And following it is a long stretch of dry weather beginning on Tuesday as high pressure builds in both surface and aloft…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Showers possible pre-dawn. Lows 52-59. Wind W to variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Areas of showers in the morning. Widespread rain in the afternoon with possible embedded thunderstorms late-day near South Coast. Highs 63-70. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with widespread showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms in the evening. Breaking clouds overnight with patchy fog. Lows 52-59. Wind SE to SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 67-74. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-57. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Ground fog patches low elevations. Lows 47-54, coolest low elevations inland. Wind N under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Wind calm then NE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 22-26)

High pressure hangs on into late week with fair and slightly warmer weather. The September 24-26 period is vulnerable to the return of clouds, higher humidity, and the chance of wet weather as we watch low pressure moving up along the Atlantic Coast. Doesn’t look, at this range, to be a strong storm of any kind.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 27 – OCTOBER 1)

Dry weather for the most part with a return of a zonal flow pattern, but around mid period a disturbance may bring some showers through the region. No big storms or extreme temperatures are indicated.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 16-20)

Lee is now a post-tropical cyclone as of 5 a.m. with maximum sustained winds around the center still at category 1 hurricane level (80 MPH). Lee will continue to weaken but remains a powerful storm as it approaches Nova Scotia on a northward track where landfall will take place near or just west of Argyle today. Thereafter, Lee curves back to the northeast and accelerates through Atlantic Canada. For us, we have a windy and in some areas wet start to the day. The steadiest rain band worked from the coastal plain in to the I-495 belt overnight, with the heaviest rainfall over Cape Cod. This rain band, the only one to impact the area, is already in the process of starting to decay as Lee now moves away, and dry air continues to erode the rain band. With surface dew points ranging from the middle 40s in the western portion of the WHW forecast area to the middle 50s along the coast, you can see that Lee’s rain is indeed fighting rather dry air in place. Surface temperatures are mostly in the upper 50s to lower 60s (a few middle 60s over Cape Cod area) as of early morning, and combined with a gusty north to northwest wind, it doesn’t feel “tropical” at all, but rather autumnal – like it would during the passage of a coastal or offshore storm during the autumn (yes it’s still technically summer, but close enough). Anyway, the worst of our weather is now, as I write and post this update. From here on, improvement, while starting slowly, will happen steadily as we move through the day and this evening, with first the rain band eroding and departing northeastward, and then the clouds thinning and breaking basically from southwest to northeast, and most areas will see sun later. That colorful sunset that I prognosticated can take place if there are still enough clouds in the sky for the setting sun to shine onto the bottom of, much like the region saw last evening. I do think it’s a strong possibility. Later tonight the clouds vanish, and we are set up for a very nice day on Sunday, the final weekend day of astronomical summer, with plenty of sunshine, some decorative fair weather clouds, warm air but low humidity, and a pleasant breeze. But as has been the theme for so much of the summer, that doesn’t last long, as the next trough swings in from the west Monday with another showery day. With ground still somewhat saturated and some areas still recovering from recent severe flash flooding, it should be noted that the rainfall from Monday’s system can be enough to result in some additional flooding, but I expect that it would be far less severe than the event that preceded it by 1 week. High pressure builds toward the region Tuesday and Wednesday with fair, dry weather returning.

TODAY: Cloudy through midday including rain likely Cape Cod and a chance of rain eastern MA & NH Seacoast, then increasing sun especially western areas during the afternoon and maybe into eastern areas later on. Highs 66-73. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH with gusts 25 MPH or higher inland, 15-25 MPH with gusts 35 MPH or higher coastal plain, and 25-35 MPH with gusts 45 MPH or higher immediate coast, strongest gusts Cape Cod and Nantucket as well as tip of Cape Ann, gradually diminishing in all areas afternoon.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 51-58. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 50-57. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Highs 67-74. Wind variable becoming SE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms in the evening. Breaking clouds overnight with patchy fog. Lows 52-59. Wind SE to SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to N.

TUESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 67-74. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-57. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 21-25)

High pressure will continue to dominate the weather with fair weather through the day of the autumnal equinox on September 23. The end of the period may turn unsettled with the arrival of moisture from the south bringing clouds and a rain chance.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 26-30)

Overall a dry pattern with high pressure in control, but a disturbance from the west may bring the next shower chance before the end of this period. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 15-19)

I had to chuckle a tad when I woke up early this morning to a feel-of-fall chill coming through the window via Canada while at the same time seeing the early sunlight filtered through the canopy of high clouds from a weather system that originated deep in the tropics. After how humid we had been, and how humid we are currently not, it was just a little funny. But weather is often about interaction between things that originate far from each other, and this will be the case for us the next couple days as Lee, during transition from hurricane, to tropical storm, to post-tropical, will make its northward trek just to our east and make a post-tropical landfall Saturday afternoon in western Nova Scotia. We’ll have a generally nice day today under the clouds, which will limit our sun, but maybe set up a nice sunset later before they thicken up tonight. Lee’s impacts will be limited mostly to rough surf along the coast, with north-facing shores most vulnerable to high tide flooding late tonight and midday Saturday. The wind will be the other most noticeable impact, with a fresh northerly breeze on the western fringe of the storm’s circulation. I’m expecting peak wind gusts of 25-35 MPH over interior areas, 35-45 MPH over the coastal plain, but 45-55 MPH along the immediate coast with 55 MPH + wind gusts possible on the tip of Cape Ann and across Cape Cod and Nantucket. As Lee pulls away Saturday afternoon, the winds will begin to diminish. The rainfall impact from Lee’s passage will be rather limited. The rain shield should expand northwestward from offshore, reaching Cape Cod and Nantucket by 10PM or so, Boston area by about 2AM, and out as far as the I-95 and I-495 belts possibly by just before dawn. But the further west you are, the less likely you are to see any rain and if you do the shorter-lived it will likely be. Dry air in place will chomp up the western fringe of the rain area. For rain amounts, expect traces inland, about 0.10 tops near the NH Seacoast and MA North Shore through Boston area, up to 0.50 inch near the Cape Cod Canal, and 1.00 inch or more from Mid Cape eastward. That’s it. And then Lee’s outta here late Saturday with rapid improvement, maybe another nice sunset for parts of the region, a cool Saturday night with dry air reinforce, and a pleasant Sunday with lots of sun, passing clouds, and dry air. Monday’s weather briefly tanks as a low pressure trough swings through the region with showery conditions – timing to be fine-tuned next updates. This should move swiftly enough so we’re right back to fair by Tuesday.

TODAY: Limited sun – lots of high clouds. Highs 66-73. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Thickening clouds. Rain arrives southeast to northwest overnight, steadiest Cape Cod and coastal areas. Lows 55-62. Wind N increasing to 10-20 MPH with gusts 25 MPH or higher inland, 15-25 MPH with gusts 35 MPH or higher coastal plain, and 25-35 MPH with gusts 45 MPH or higher immediate coast, strongest gusts Cape Cod and Nantucket as well as tip of Cape Ann.

SATURDAY: Cloudy through midday including rain likely Cape Cod and a chance of rain eastern MA & NH Seacoast, then increasing sun especially western areas during the afternoon and maybe into eastern areas later on. Highs 66-73. Wind in the morning N increasing to 10-20 MPH with gusts 25 MPH or higher inland, 15-25 MPH with gusts 35 MPH or higher coastal plain, and 25-35 MPH with gusts 45 MPH or higher immediate coast, strongest gusts Cape Cod and Nantucket as well as tip of Cape Ann. Wind in the afternoon shifting to NW and diminishing.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 51-58. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 50-57. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Highs 67-74. Wind variable to S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 50-57. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 65-72. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 20-24)

High pressure controls the weather through mid period as we wrap up summer 2023 and welcome autumn with the equinox on September 23. By the end of the period we may be looking to our south at approaching tropical moisture and increased cloudiness and possibly more wet weather.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 25-29)

A wet weather chance may exist early in the period before high pressure re-takes control with a generally dry and mild pattern for late September.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 14-18)

A cold front will complete its trip across our region by moving offshore later this morning / midday, putting an end to the last of the showers currently (as of 7 a.m.) over far southeastern MA. While some other clouds may stream across the sky from southwest to northeast in the mid and upper level winds behind the front, the balance of the day is going to feature fair weather, mild air, and the arrival of much lower humidity. Ah! This drier air mass will hang around for a while too, and will actually be a player to some degree in our Saturday forecast, regarding Lee’s passage. First, we’ll enjoy a nice day on Friday as high pressure sits over the Great Lakes and sends us nice Canadian air on a northwesterly wind. As this happens, Hurricane Lee will be making its way northward, accelerating, and weakening, but also expanding in size as it begins the process of tropical to post-tropical transition. Lee will still be at hurricane strength on Friday and on its projected path it will make its closest pass to our region during the first two thirds of the day Saturday, the center still well offshore. An interaction with a low pressure trough to our west will give Lee’s path a little wiggle to the west, just enough to bring its expanded wind field into our area, of course strongest along the coast, especially Cape Cod. The cloud shield associated with Lee will already have started to spread north and northwest into our region later Friday, reaching its maximum Saturday morning to midday. This is also when Lee’s rain shield has the greatest chance of impacting the region. The most likely location to see any appreciable rainfall is Cape Cod. While the rain shield may make its way across the coastal plain and possibly as far as the I-95 and maybe even briefly the I-495 belts, it will also be battling the aforementioned dry air in place over our region, which will eat away at the western edge of it. Essentially, rainfall from Lee will be a non-factor except for on Cape Cod. The other more important factor, already ongoing and continuing through Saturday, will be the rough surf and large ocean swells along the coastline. As previously mentioned, use caution if you have plans that take you sea-side or into the coastal waters during the next few days, through the weekend. Although by Sunday and definitely Monday these conditions will be subsiding. My expectation for Lee is that he will have weakened to a tropical storm during the transition to post-tropical while passing our latitude and make a landfall as an “almost” post-tropical storm on the western side of Nova Scotia later Saturday, before heading off through Atlantic Canada as a gusty wind and rain storm. Keep in mind that well-in-advance nice sunset prediction for our region late Saturday. We may be able to add Friday to that prediction depending on the advancing cloud shield ahead of Lee. But at least one of those is going to produce nicely. Hold me to it! Our weather improves quickly Saturday evening and is stellar for Sunday with fair weather, low humidity, and a tolerable breeze. A trough from the west moves in for Monday with more clouds and the chance of some rainfall again in the region, but at this time it does not look like a heavy rainfall event.

TODAY: Clouds and showers linger in the Cape Cod region for a while this morning. Otherwise, a sun/cloud mix. Highs 71-78. DP falling 60s to 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 55-62. DP ~ 50. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun, but clouds increasing later in the day from southeast to northwest. Highs 68-75. DP ~ 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Rain arrives Cape Cod. Lows 57-64. DP lower-middle 50s rising to near 60 Cape Cod. Wind N 5-15 MPH inland, 15-30 MPH coast, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Cloudy through midday including rain likely Cape Cod and a chance of rain eastern MA & NH Seacoast, then increasing sun especially western areas during the afternoon and maybe into eastern areas later on. Highs 66-73. DP middle 50s to lower 60s, highest coast, falling again later. Wind N 10-20 MPH inland, 20-35 MPH coast, strongest Cape Cod, including higher gusts through midday, diminishing gradually thereafter.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 50-57. DP falling to 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. DP 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 50-57. DP upper 40s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Highs 67-74. DP rising to near 60. Wind variable to S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 19-23)

High pressure establishes control as we count down the final days of summer to the arrival of Autumn (equinox September 23) with a long stretch of mainly fair weather and temperatures near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 24-28)

While lower confidence further out, the indications are for high pressure to be dominant with a mainly dry pattern and temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 13-17)

A long-talked about trough and associated frontal system will enter our region from the west today and take until sometime Thursday morning to completely pass across the region. This allows high humidity to continue along with a couple or a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms, generally arranged in broken lines or clusters, the first from late morning too early afternoon, the second later this afternoon to early this evening, and a likely third round in the early morning hours of Thursday over southeastern MA (maybe part of RI) lingering on Cape Cod as late as mid morning Thursday. Any or all of these areas could contain an isolated severe storm or to with the emphasis south of I-90. The perimeters are there for even a storm or two with rotation, so that will be something to keep watch for as well. I also know many are concerned with repeated flooding from today’s and tonight’s activity. While heavier showers/storms can result in some additional/renewed flooding problems, these should be more localized and much shorter-lived than the event that took place Monday. As the front passes, a wind shift to northwest, occurring from west to east, will usher in much drier air, but this progression is not rapid, and it will take until midday Thursday for this new air mass to have reached the entirety of the region. Thursday night will give you that feel of autumn in the air, while it’s still technically summer, the days are waning and it’s only a matter of time. But we haven’t felt much of this yet in the late summer days as we’ve been in such a persistent pattern of higher humidity and frequent rainfall events. Speaking of events, while we’re enjoying a comfortable mid September / late summer day on Friday, we’ll be keeping a close eye on Hurricane Lee, which will be in the process of accelerating northward in the waters between Bermuda and southern New England. The track of this system, as usual, has been the hot topic, but some details need to be remembered. These include Lee’s path over cooler water and its encountering of wind shear, and a slightly slower-than-typical acceleration, all which will contribute to a weakening and an early beginning of the transition from tropical to post tropical system. Transitioning systems also expand in size in terms of their wind field, so this has to be taken into account when developing a forecast for our region. My initial ideas for Lee’s eventual path haven’t really changed that much, nor will they here for this forecast. We see the cyclone wavering along its path due to influences from various weather systems in the western Atlantic and eastern North America. This is typical but maybe a little more apparent due to this particular pattern configuration and Lee’s slightly slower movement. But slower movement is still relative, because the system will be accelerating and expanding as it makes its closest pass to us between Friday night and Saturday afternoon. My best guess is that Lee’s landfall will take place between the eastern tip of Maine and the southern tip of Nova Scotia sometime on Saturday evening. What that means for our region is that we get under the cloud canopy of the storm Friday night into Saturday, and a period of stronger northerly wind (on the storm’s back side), especially for the coastal areas / Cape Cod, where it’s not unreasonable to expect gale-force gusts at this point. Does the rain shield on the western side of the storm make it this far west? Good question. It probably does, to some degree, with the greatest chance of rainfall being on Cape Cod. There will also be a significant amount of dry air in place over our region, which tends to eat away at the western sides of these precipitation areas when the storms are passing by like this one will be. So I’m downplaying the rain chance, based on this, and just focusing on the impacts of cloud cover and wind, and probably the most important of all, for coastal areas – rough surf and rip currents, which have already begun and will continue into the weekend as Lee passes by then moves away. The peak for this will likely be the second half of Friday and a good portion of Saturday, so keep this in mind if you have late-season coastal water or beach plans. Is it too early to call for the potential of stunning sunsets on Friday and/or Saturday during the approach of Lee Friday and the departure of Lee Saturday, allowing the setting sun to sneak under the storms cloud deck? Mark it down – let’s see what happens!

TODAY: Some early sun for eastern areas otherwise generally cloudy. Showers and possible thunderstorms midday on. Any storms can produce downpours and localized flooding. Isolated severe storms are possible mainly south of I-90. Highs 71-78. DP 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Showers continue and become most likely in RI and southeastern MA. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. DP 60+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Clouds and showers linger in the Cape Cod region for a while in the morning. Otherwise, a sun/cloud mix. Highs 71-78. DP falling 60s to 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 55-62. DP ~ 50. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun, but clouds increasing later in the day from south to north, especially in eastern areas. Highs 68-75. DP ~ 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 55-62. DP lower 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod with higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy through midday including a chance of rain Cape Cod. Sun may shine more, especially western areas, later in the day. Highs 66-73. DP lower 50s. Wind N 10-20 MPH except 15-30 MPH Cape Cod with higher gusts possible.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 50-57. DP falling to 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. DP 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 18-22)

Next trough brings a chance of some wet weather early next week, before high pressure returns and brings a stretch of dry weather for several days following, starting slightly cooler and drier then with a warming trend as we hit the last couple days of summer

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 23-27)

Autumn arrives with the equinox on September 23. The early days of the new season look fairly quiet with a zonal flow pattern, mostly fair weather, a brief shower threat or two, and temperatures near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 12-16)

The frontal boundary that was draped over the region yesterday, and a player in what turned out to be two intense rain areas with major flash flooding (Leominster area, North Attleboro area), is washing out in place and what’s left of it will drift offshore today. A nearly indiscernible bubble of high pressure will be just enough to help clouds break for partial sun today, but any sun will help fuel a few pop up showers and a very low risk of a thunderstorm. The good news is today’s activity would not organize into quasi-stationary lines and dump a ton of rain, but would just be smaller single cells or small clusters that would pass by, albeit a bit slowly. We still have a very weak steering flow in this humid atmosphere. But things will change soon. The bad news is to get that change to take place, part of it involves another shower/thunderstorm opportunity Wednesday, mainly afternoon and nighttime, as a cold front moves into the region from the west. This front isn’t an express train by any means, but it is going to moving along at least, just taking its time, so the shower threat persists into the early hours of Thursday before dry air arrives from west to east. This sets up a very nice Thursday afternoon through Friday with a well-deserved break in humid, wet weather. Friday is easily to be the weather pick of the week. Late Friday and Saturday our attention will be on Hurricane Lee as it makes its closest pass to our region. My expectation at the moment hasn’t changed much from my earlier ideas. Yes, we need to watch the storm. It’s going to send at least big waves and heavy surf into our coastal areas. It’ll probably invade eastern portions of the region, at least, with its cloud canopy. For the moment, I think the track of the accelerating / expanding / transitioning storm will be off shore enough that its rain shield will stay over water, making its closest pass during the first half of the day Saturday. If this idea is correct, we’d have a day with clouds overhead, but dry weather, and a gusty breeze on the back side of the passing storm, which will probably be a low end category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm, in the process of transitioning from tropical to post-tropical. Lee will have been weakened by additional wind shear and a wake cool pool of water left behind by 2 recent hurricanes off the US East Coast.

TODAY: Patchy fog/drizzle early. Lots of clouds, partial sun, and isolated afternoon showers with a slight chance of thunder. Highs 73-80, warmest inland areas. DP upper 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. DP near 60. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms midday on. Highs 71-78. DP 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers continue. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. DP 60+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy early with showers lingering in eastern MA and NH Seacoast regions, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 70-77. DP falling 60s to 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 55-62. DP ~ 50. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 68-75. DP ~ 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 53-60. DP ~ 50. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Lots of clouds / some sun. Highs 66-73. DP lower 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod with higher gusts possible.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 17-21)

A fair weather end to the weekend on September 17. Next trough brings a chance of wet weather early next week but is expected to be progressive, with a drying trend into and through the midweek period. Temperatures somewhat variable, but not that far from normal.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 22-26)

Looking for a generally zonal flow pattern, a little warmer than average but a cooler interlude or two. A little more confident we’ve lost the wet pattern at this point and are in a fairly quiet one.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 11-15)

Three unsettled days, a transition day, and a nice day with low humidity will be how this 5-day period unfolds. First, a nearly stationary front sits over the region today, like much of the weekend. Plenty of low level moisture has the region under lots of low clouds with areas of fog to start the day, but some of that will break and try to clear out, only to have clouds above that be dominant in association with the frontal boundary and a little wave of low pressure moving along it. This will trigger additional shower activity today, and it may become rather widespread by later in the day too, into part of the evening, before exiting. Overnight, we lose the rain chance, but gain the fog back, and it may be quite dense in some locations as well, persisting into Tuesday morning before it thins out again and dissipates. During the day Tuesday, a little very weak high pressure bubble pushes the frontal boundary in the region offshore, and allows clouds to break for some partial sun, but any sun will help a few showers pop up during the afternoon – this time favoring interior southern NH and central MA. Any of those dissipate by evening and just some clouds/fog will be around at night. The clouds hang on through Wednesday as another front approaches from the west, bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region especially Wednesday afternoon and night, lingering into the early part of Thursday. Finally, this front, which will be moving along much more swiftly, will push offshore allowing a transition to drier air during the day on Thursday, and a really nice mid September day on Friday with fair weather and low humidity.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely, especially in the afternoon. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog early. Highs 71-78. DP near 70. Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog, possibly dense. Showers end in the evening. Lows 62-69. DP 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Early morning foggy areas, otherwise clouds break for partial sun. Isolated afternoon showers favoring central MA / southwestern NH. Highs 73-80, warmest well inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 61-68. DP near 60. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms midday on. Highs 71-78. DP 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers continue. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. DP 60+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy early with showers ending from west to east, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 70-77. DP falling 60s to 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 55-62. DP near 50. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 68-75. DP ~ 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 16-20)

Hurricane Lee’s closest pass, likely well offshore, will be taking place early in the period, during the September 16-17 weekend. While some guidance has given the track of Lee a little wiggle to the west, I’m not ready to buy that, as we’ve seen that before only to have guidance correct itself later. I’m aware that this has shown up on 3 major medium range models, but my feeling is the same at this point. Monitoring ensembles and trends is still the way to go early this week. Our weekend will be mostly fair with breezy conditions and fairly low humidity as Lee passes by to the east, but it will most certainly result in another round of rough surf along the coastline. Early-mid next week, another trough moves in from the west and a chance of showers – timing to be fine-tuned – but doesn’t look as wet as the current episode.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 21-25)

As we close out summer and welcome autumn, a zonal pattern should give us more dry weather than unsettled, lower humidity, and variable but mostly near normal temperatures as we head into late month.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 10-14)

A few adjustments are being made on this 5-day forecast update, but nothing major. The changes are that I am a little less optimistic about a nicer day Tuesday, but more optimistic about a nicer Thursday. We stay in the humid and unsettled pattern as one trough moves through the region today into Monday. With a lack of a good push of drier air we can’t clear out efficiently on Tuesday between that trough and its follow-up from the west, which brings more unsettled weather to our region into midweek. However it does look progressive enough to get east of our region and finally allow some much drier air from Canada to arrive via the Great Lakes Thursday.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers and thunderstorms likely, favoring the I-95 belt westward. Highs 78-85. DP near 70. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Scattered showers and a possible thunderstorm. Lows 65-72. DP 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely, especially in the afternoon. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog early. Highs 73-80. DP near 70. Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Showers/storms end, clouds remain, patchy fog forms. Lows 60-67. DP 60s. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A shower or patch of coastal drizzle possible. Highs 70-77. DP 60s. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 61-68. DP near 60. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Afternoon showers likely. Highs 71-78. DP 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers ending. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65. DP near 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 70-77. DP falling through 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 15-19)

Hurricane Lee’s closest pass, well offshore, will be taking place early to mid period, stirring up big waves along the coast, otherwise we see dry weather here through the middle weekend of the month with pleasant late summer conditions. The next unsettled weather chance comes from a trough moving in from the west later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 20-24)

Drier trend with more northwesterly flow expected, along with more seasonable temperatures.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 9-13)

Yesterday, a complex of thunderstorms came out of CT and northeastward across a swath of east central to northeastern MA into southeastern NH. Along this path there were numerous incidences of straight-line or downburst wind damage (no tornadoes). That batch of storms was a surprise to me, as I wasn’t really expecting anything to develop ahead of the showers/storms that made a run at us from the west later in the evening. Those at least behaved about as expected after the surprise event earlier. Now, we have a stretch of unsettled weather on our hands. The September heat is for the most part gone, but the humidity will hang around for a few more days as a trough of low pressure swings through from west to east. But it’s going to take until early Tuesday to get through the region, so we have a lot of cloudiness in the forecast. Showers and thunderstorms will be around, though I think thunder-production out of these will become more the exception than the rule and we should not be seeing a repeat of damaging storms that some areas saw yesterday. I suspect that the activity will be only isolated to scattered today, scattered to numerous at times on Sunday, and after starting out just scattered may become more widespread on Monday, which regionwide should end up being the wettest of the next three days. We get a break on Tuesday as a little bubble of high pressure brings slightly drier air and reduces the shower chance to nil or just isolated pop-ups. Wednesday, another trough moves in from the west with a better chance of showers once again.

TODAY: Clouds dominate. Intervals of sun. Isolated to scattered showers and possible thunderstorms, favoring the second half of the afternoon. Highs 79-86, coolest South Coast. DP ~ 70. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. A shower possible. Lows 63-70. DP 60s. Wind S under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers and thunderstorms likely, favoring the I-95 belt westward. Highs 78-85. DP near 70. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Scattered showers and a possible thunderstorm. Lows 65-72. DP 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely, especially in the afternoon. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog early. Highs 73-80. DP near 70. Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Showers/storms end, clouds remain, patchy fog forms. Lows 60-67. DP 60s. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloud/sun mix. An isolated pop up shower may occur over inland hills. Highs 70-77. DP near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 61-68. DP near 60. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Afternoon showers likely. Highs 71-78. DP 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 14-18)

Our unsettled weather will continue early in the period due to a trough moving through from west to east. Hurricane Lee will be making its closest pass but still likely well offshore around September 15-16 based on current timing – keeping in mind this timing is not nailed down quite yet. This storm would send larger waves to the coast again as we’ve seen from several systems out there recently. An interlude of drier weather after the initial unsettled weather, and then another system may bring showers to our region from the west later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 19-23)

Drier trend with more northwesterly flow expected, along with more seasonable temperatures.