Monday September 11 2023 Forecast (7:20AM)

240 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 11-15)

Three unsettled days, a transition day, and a nice day with low humidity will be how this 5-day period unfolds. First, a nearly stationary front sits over the region today, like much of the weekend. Plenty of low level moisture has the region under lots of low clouds with areas of fog to start the day, but some of that will break and try to clear out, only to have clouds above that be dominant in association with the frontal boundary and a little wave of low pressure moving along it. This will trigger additional shower activity today, and it may become rather widespread by later in the day too, into part of the evening, before exiting. Overnight, we lose the rain chance, but gain the fog back, and it may be quite dense in some locations as well, persisting into Tuesday morning before it thins out again and dissipates. During the day Tuesday, a little very weak high pressure bubble pushes the frontal boundary in the region offshore, and allows clouds to break for some partial sun, but any sun will help a few showers pop up during the afternoon – this time favoring interior southern NH and central MA. Any of those dissipate by evening and just some clouds/fog will be around at night. The clouds hang on through Wednesday as another front approaches from the west, bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region especially Wednesday afternoon and night, lingering into the early part of Thursday. Finally, this front, which will be moving along much more swiftly, will push offshore allowing a transition to drier air during the day on Thursday, and a really nice mid September day on Friday with fair weather and low humidity.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely, especially in the afternoon. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog early. Highs 71-78. DP near 70. Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog, possibly dense. Showers end in the evening. Lows 62-69. DP 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Early morning foggy areas, otherwise clouds break for partial sun. Isolated afternoon showers favoring central MA / southwestern NH. Highs 73-80, warmest well inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 61-68. DP near 60. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms midday on. Highs 71-78. DP 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers continue. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. DP 60+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy early with showers ending from west to east, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 70-77. DP falling 60s to 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 55-62. DP near 50. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 68-75. DP ~ 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 16-20)

Hurricane Lee’s closest pass, likely well offshore, will be taking place early in the period, during the September 16-17 weekend. While some guidance has given the track of Lee a little wiggle to the west, I’m not ready to buy that, as we’ve seen that before only to have guidance correct itself later. I’m aware that this has shown up on 3 major medium range models, but my feeling is the same at this point. Monitoring ensembles and trends is still the way to go early this week. Our weekend will be mostly fair with breezy conditions and fairly low humidity as Lee passes by to the east, but it will most certainly result in another round of rough surf along the coastline. Early-mid next week, another trough moves in from the west and a chance of showers – timing to be fine-tuned – but doesn’t look as wet as the current episode.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 21-25)

As we close out summer and welcome autumn, a zonal pattern should give us more dry weather than unsettled, lower humidity, and variable but mostly near normal temperatures as we head into late month.

240 thoughts on “Monday September 11 2023 Forecast (7:20AM)”

  5. Thanks TK. No heavy rain for my area today please. Several people in my town have already had water issues from the over 5 plus inches this weekend.

  7. Taking the Pivotal Weather ensemble means for the Euro
    at our latitude for the last 3 runs has it move steadily Westward.

    Here are the longitude locations and runs

    9/10 0 Z 64.1 W
    9/10 12Z 65.6 W
    9/11 0 Z 67.2 W

    Here are the images

    9/10 0Z

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023091000&fh=174&dpdt=&mc=&r=conus&p=sfcwind_mslp-mean&m=epsens

    9/10 12 z

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023091012&fh=162&dpdt=&mc=&r=conus&p=sfcwind_mslp-mean&m=epsens

    9/11 0Z

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023091100&fh=150&dpdt=&mc=&r=conus&p=sfcwind_mslp-mean&m=epsens

    Full Disclosure, the CMC and GFS moved a tad East with their respective runs.

    So buckle up. TK is betting a move to the East.
    Let’s see what shakes out.

  11. It’s been 22 years since we lost more than 3,000 innocent lives to terrorism.

    I’ve always thought that as a nation we should have a collective moment (well, two minutes) of silence on September 11th when practically everything stops, similar to what I experienced on days of remembrance in Europe. I think it’s vital for all Americans to reflect on the victims of September 11th, and innocent people everywhere in the world who have been killed (and are being murdered every day) by cruel regimes and terrorists.

    1. Joshua. I remember folks in other countries stopping. Everyone…even those in cars pulling over. I certainly know we mourned. And still do with individual town celebrations throughout. But like you I always hope we would have a nationwide moment of silence.

  12. On Lee, with not an ounce of trained knowledge, I have a gut feeling it’ll be off shore. BUT how far. A couple of nights ago 300-500 miles was mentioned as a guess. I asked the width of a Hurricane but either didn’t have or missed the answer. So I checked. The average hurricane is 300 miles wide. 300 miles to our east to me seems to be something of at least minimal concern, especially for our coast. And maybe I’m way off base. Just morning pondering.

    1. Each hurricane is different.

      I took a look at one of the GFS displays and at our latitude
      it was about 6 degrees of longitude wide.

      At the equator, each degree of longitude is 69.17 miles
      at lat 42 north, it would be 69.17 x cosine (42)
      or 69.17 * .743145 OR 51.4

      Multiplying by the 6 degrees of width, we get 308 miles or so.
      Just about average, eh?

      HOWEVER, when going through the transition to Extra tropical, that likely would have expanded.

      1. Ahhhhh now that makes sense. So even further away from the coast would translate as a bit of a mess here. My reason for wondering was how much do I need to think about short term preparations. I always have long term go bags ready.

        I did just see JJs wind map below. I’m thinking time to dust off the small generators (yep I used that dirty word) for the fridges.

    2. Even though that run is off shore, I would say that
      qualifies as an IMPACT. 🙂
      Of course, still a ways to go and plenty of time for models
      to adjust off shore more.

      BUCKLE UP!!!

  16. This will change but if you get those wind gusts you are going to have power issues with leaves on the trees. Back in 2020 Isiaias which past west of CT had 40-50 mph winds and here in CT it was one of the biggest power outages in state history.

  17. Couple tweets from Bernie Rayno

    I do think SE VA to Fl is in the clear. The threat area (for rain and wind from Lee) is from VA/MD coast on north to Nova Scotia & Newfoundland. The highest threat area within this zone is clearly New England to eastern Canada.

    #Lee will likely miss the mid-week trough coming to the U.S. which means the chance of no impacts (rain and wind) along the Northeast coast are small. The next the key becomes the late week trough. The depth and location of it will decided how far west #Lee will go

  18. I missed the action in Pembroke yesterday as I was working but some areas of town took a decent hit with power outages & closed down roads due to the quick flooding of them . My wife said it was extremely heavy , heavy rain .

  20. Could this week turn out to be the gloomiest one this summer? Especially if Lee is close enough to cause heavy rain, at least at the coast. It would be fitting, a bookend, if you will, to a summer marked with quite a few relatively dark, cloudy and rainy days.

  21. Thanks, TK…

    I defer to the fine experts here (as I always do 🙂 ), but, with recent long-term and short-term rainfall, it isn’t going to take a lot of wind to cause tree damage. I

        1. Something like that I would expect. Plus the soil is so wet,
          that it is more likely that the trees can be uprooted with
          just the right amount of wind, especially when fully
          foliated as they currently are.

          Silly statement, but sort of like the roots don’t take root as readily. 🙂

        2. They are very vulnerable. It won’t take much to topple some trees. I’ve seen quite number of toppled trees and large branches practically every day on my long run. Way too much rain is as much of a problem for trees as severe drought. Everything is waterlogged.

          Vegetation isn’t exactly thrilled with this much rain either, and few chances to dry out during the past 90 days.

          Even many of the summer flowers on the Esplanade, which normally bloom well into September, are water-exhausted and relatively sun-deprived. They’ve been doing poorly since the middle of last month.

          My guess is the nearly constant humidity – even on days when it was sunny or it didn’t rain – hasn’t helped either.

          I’ve lived in a part of the world accustomed to rainy and cloudy summers. The summer of 2023 in Boston ranks right up there with the gloomiest I’ve ever experienced in my 58 years, so including the ones I had in the UK and the Netherlands.

  22. I know we are NOT to use the NAMS for hurricanes.
    That being said up front, just for laughs, here is the 12Z NAM
    surface and 200 mb charts at 84 hours:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2023091112&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=200wh&rh=2023091112&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    That 200mb chart would suggest a reasonable close pass to the coast. Certainly close enough for “some” impact.

    GFS and GDPS are next. Hurricane models take a bit of time.
    Waiting on those as well.

  24. I am glad that someone else besides me has noticed the DARK, GLOOMY days we have had this summer. Watch, come November will end up being the brightest, sunniest on record. 🙂

  25. NONE of the NHC Hurricane models are out with the 12Z data yet. Very slow! I can imagine the complexity of these models.

    1. 12Z GFS at 60 hours is at about the same longitude as 6Z run, but a full degrees less latitude. Again, NOT sure how that will translate down the line. I suspect a possible closer pass, but who knows.

      1. Ok at 84 hours, it is now 1 degree farther East than the 6Z run
        and about the same longitude. Now, that suggests a pass
        more off shore. We’ll see if there is any suck back action.

    1. That thing is moving SLOW. Just sits and spins east of Boston, slowly drifting up towards the Gulf of Maine for 24 hours.

  35. With regard to moments of silence on September 11th, if I recall, we as a nation did that for the first few years following the tragedy. Even radio stations playing pop music would stop briefly and acknowledge. I don’t know if that is even done anymore.

  36. I agree with Mark’s point regarding speed of movement above.

    Not the 30-60 mph forward motion of most storms at this latitude.

    Makes for a much longer duration of winds to whip up the ocean and likely makes flooding and erosion more likely.

    1. Assuming it is as close as depicted. We shall see.

      Waiting on Euro, plus the hurricane models and for some
      reason NO UKMENT so far today.

  38. Philip, you are correct. We did it for a few years.

    I’d like it to be a permanent feature. I sincerely believe our nation could do with more solemnity and collective reflection.

    Though this has nothing to do with September 11th, I’m hoping that when President Carter passes we have a collective moment of reflection. A week-long pause in campaigning and political ads and posturing would be good. I know it’s what Carter wants.

    We’re in this together shouldn’t be an empty slogan. Our nation has been ripped apart by polarization in the past decade or so, in my view. And it’s not just Trump-driven. In fact, at the moment it’s as driven by the left as it is by the right. I’m deeply saddened by it. We Americans do best when we’re not at each other’s throats about everything. Live and let live, agree to disagree and know that ultimately despite our differences we’re all Americans.

    1. Amen.

      I do believe that when that happens there will be a proper period of national mourning. Yes there is way too much polarization these days but my hope is, we haven’t gone that far down the path (yet).

  41. Most every run I see has a small loop or NW component near our latitude.

    I’m not worried (CURRENTLY) about a direct hit, but even at 66 or 67W Longitude, a slight 3 hr wobble west or a brief loop, the ocean will be very, very, very problematic.

    At 66W longitude, the center is 300 miles east of Boston, but it’s not unreasonable that gale or storm force winds could extend 200 miles west of the center. That’s a ton of fetch over a duration of 9 to 12 hrs.

  43. One thing’s for sure, if you know someone who booked an Atlantic cruise from now thru another couple weeks, well, at some point, they are going to have a fun ride.

  44. The Wednesday trof does a good job at finally getting dry air in here and really drops the dps

    So, if somehow Lee ended up retrograding to 68-70W, which could rotate a rain shield into eastern New England, it would be a raw chilly rain as we’d wet bulb to saturate the column.

    I don’t think it would feel like a tropical system. Chilly, raw rain, IF it comes further west than seen at 12z.

  45. Thanks TK.

    Not only are models likely undergoing an eastward correction, but what Mark pointed out is also important: speed. Forward speed is **everything** when it comes to getting significant hurricane impacts on SNE. I usually have occasion to point this out every year. Even if SSTs off New England are above average, they’re much too cold to support a hurricane combined with the increasing shear you almost always get at mid latitudes. Put a hurricane in those conditions at more than 35N for any length of time, it’ll fall apart. There’s a reason the 1938 “express” was so devastating. It didn’t have nearly as much time to weaken over those conditions. Lee will.

    The idea of greater erosion/coastal flood potential in a slower moving storm isn’t totally off base, but it’s nominal, and impacts are far, far greater in a faster moving storm. At least for tropical, not so much for Nor’easters 🙂

      1. Hi Vicki, yes, the wind impacts are probably where the importance of the speed effect becomes most pronounced. Slower storm = weaker winds. Not only because the storm is weakening, but in a faster storm, the motion of the storm itself actually contributes to the wind speed. Same thing happens in severe lines of thunderstorms (I.e., all else being equal, faster line of storms = stronger winds).

    2. I don’t know if it was HAFS-A or HAFS-B, but I am certain one of them most accurately handled Idalia, I just don’t remember which one had the smallest track error of 26 miles. The GFS and EURO were in the 40-50 mile track error range.

    1. Activity looks to stay SOUTH of Boston, imho. We shall see.
      We have been spared most of the heavy rain. We got some in the past 2 days, but NOTHING like some other areas.

          1. I take this back. In looking at radar loop again, I see
            a definite NORTHWARD movement in the echoes.

            Now Expecting something here. 🙂

  53. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?p=500wh&rh=2023091112&fh=117

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=500wh&rh=2023091112&fh=126

    I think the last 2+ days, the models figured out this early week trig’s diminishing influence on Lee.

    I think the next 48 hrs, the models now need to figure out that Great Lakes trof seen when Lee is at its closest pass.

    If it’s faster, slower, deeper, it could affect Lee’s proximity near us.

    I’m willing to bet that disturbance now is probably out over the pacific or over the Yukon or the aleutians or somewhere where it’s not well sampled. So, I’m anticipating more changes until that is reconciled.

    1. You even have a special weather statement for your area. Maybe call Nws and tell them you don’t want to be special any more

  57. A Manatee was discovered in Quonochontaug Pond, a saltwater coastal lagoon in the towns of Charlestown and Westerly Rhode Island. Pretty Awesome.

    Apparently this has happened before in 2006 and again in 2016.

    2. Rather appropriate I suppose considering we’ve had a more Florida type summer. A manatee should feel right at home up here. 🙂

        1. Not yet but sump pump is filling up now and fingers crossed it turns on. Still coming down torrentially again. Had let up a bit for a little while.

      1. Look at the tilt on that graphic. It “appears” that Lee would be moving NNW at that time. That is not a flat line for due North movement NOR is it tilted right for a NNE or NE movement.
        Nope, it is tilted left.

              1. I’ve been seeing that late negative tilt at 200 mb for awhile now . We shall see IF that ever develops in time or not

        2. Actually, it is a hair east of due north. Look at the last 2 forecast points:

          96H 15/1800Z 35.4N 67.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
          120H 16/1800Z 40.8N 67.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

          It moves 0.1 degrees east, while it moves 5.4 degrees north.

  62. 12z GFS: hr 96, east of Hatteras, projected pressure: 963 mb

    Hr 114: ESE of Nantucket, 960 mb

    12z Euro: hr 96, east of Hatteras, projected pressure: 963 mb

    Hr 114: SSE of Nantucket, projected pressure: 961 mb

    The NHC will correctly show the sustained winds lowering during this time

    But, the paradox is the storm is going to gain some energy from the jet stream and be a slightly stronger system as it approaches us versus what it might be east of the mid Atlantic.

    In this way, the sustained wind projections when Lee gets to our latitude are misleading. Oh, the winds are only 75 or 80 mph when the system as a whole is actually a little deeper/stronger.

    That’s why it’s crucial this doesn’t come to close.

    2. well, you can’t say we’re not watching. I am not comfortable just yet and all the way to a line from Providence to Boston is in the NHC cone of uncertainty. does that cone get moved to the west some??? We shall see.

  64. An adjustment east at 18z, but a timing adjustment too as 18z has system further north more quickly than 12z.

    So, which timing is more accurate ?

    1. That will depend on forward speed leading up to a turn. Guidance will struggle with that for a while.

  66. While all eyes are on Lee my eye is on this torrential rain in Pepperell. I’m not sure how much right now but wouldn’t surprise me if we get 4-5 inches from it.

      1. Agree.

        This is really something else. I had mentioned south and southwest of Boston. But of course Pepperell is northwest of the city. So wherever you turn there’s action somewhere.

  67. We’ve been lucky here in Boston. Not much rain thus far today. But once again buckets of rain south and southwest of Boston. Unreal how at least somewhere in the WHW community someone is getting a lot of rain on an almost daily basis.

    Looking ahead, I am not at all convinced this is going to stop in the mid-range with the exception of a break here and there. Whether it’s the front that’s over us now this week, Lee, or what happens next week, it just seems like we’re stuck in a forever pattern. I do realize we had about a week of calm and sunny weather recently. But that was just about the only calm week all summer.

  71. Take a look at the weather maps on almost any given day in the past 90 days (I do realize there were some exceptions, but not many) and the amount of red and yellow on the maps somewhere in SNE or NNE is astonishing.

    I remember driving back from the Robert Plant concert on the 2nd of July in absolutely torrential rain. It had also rained all day, by the way. Because it had already been quite rainy for some time in June, I thought, well, this will pass. We’ll get into a more `normal’ pattern soon. That really never happened. As TK has alluded to, the persistency of the pattern is quite something.

    1. It’s in the top 3 for persistent patterns I have witnessed in our area.

      Winter 2015 is another (shorter duration but astounding for the snowfall and the fact of how cold it was and how dry the snow was).

      Summer 1983 is another. 35 days of 90+ in Boston.

  72. I’m going to use an overused phrase, but the quasi-stationary heavy rain area is right over one of the worst possible places from Nashua to Leominster areas and southwestward. This is right on the stationary boundary and it’s not going anywhere for a while.

    Route 2 in the Leominster area and surrounding roads are impassable and closed. High water rescues are in progress. The road system around that area has always been vulnerable to flooding because many of them sit in relative topographical troughs. It’s a horrendous design but I supposed nothing was ever done about it because of … $ … our biggest enemy at times.

  73. I laughed when Eric F. declared the rain situation to be “preposterous.” That’s not a meteorological term that is bandied about lightly. 🙂

  74. Wow, the tweet that Vicki sent of Leominster. We’ve got quite a few WHW members up that way. Do take care.

    And North, I’m thinking of you guys in North Attleboro. I see the stationary blob that’s producing copious amounts of rain. I think you may have had 2 months worth of rain in ~48 hours.

    It would be one thing if the rest of the summer had been dry or close to average. It wasn’t.

  75. TK reminded us of previous persistent patterns.

    I’ll add the snow blitz in 2011 which was rather persistent. It was a 6 week pattern as I recall. We did have plenty of cold and sunny days before and after snowstorms. Perhaps the winter of 1995-1996, too, though there were several breaks in the pattern. Each time, however, it seemed to return to what it was doing a lot of: Snowing.

    1. That actually lasted a bit longer than 2015, but there was a little bit more variability in there, but not much. Winter 1995-1996, in a more broad view, also qualifies. And that went right into April too.

      1. In 1996 there was bad flooding in October. Not sure if this was a long duration pattern. But we did have quite the rainstorms as I recall. It did, however, change by the end of the month. In fact, I remember watching the World Series in late October and it was quite cold. I mean 30s cold at night in NYC.

    1. I know Greg. He was just chatting with me about how that area’s topography is basically a trough. The heavy rain ribbon was in the worst possible place.

  87. That area east northeast of providence …. Probably unfortunately where north lives …. Looks like that rain may have intensified a bit

    1. I have the North Attleboro scanner on and there’s call after call with flooding emergencies. Hope you’re okay, North!

  89. Does anyone remember several days ago, Joshua posted about the flooding rains in Greece ?

    Well, that upper low turned southwest over the Mediterranean, which is very warm and it had the right environment to intensify to a medicane and it went right into Libya and they believe 2,000 people have been killed by the flooding.

      1. Yes, I was about to post this, Tom. It’s in the Eastern part of Libya. I believe it’s near the city of Benghazi.

        A lot of major, catastrophic weather events recently.

        Add the terrible earthquake, a major war with many hundreds of daily deaths (military and civilian), several minor wars, and several other conflicts brewing … welcome to the unpleasant realities of a difficult 2023.

    2. The “Medicane”, which occur on average every couple to few years, was a result of the same blocking in the N HEM that has caused our wet summer. Unfortunately the heavy rain from this one resulted in a major dam failure. Most of the time these systems cause much more minor issues. Not this time, unfortunately. 🙁

  93. Started raining in Sudbury about 3 hrs. ago and still pouring. Looked at radar and it’s just not moving. I feel bad for North and others stuck in this awful flooding situation. Everybody – stay safe!

    1. Oh my Rainshine. I hope all is ok there. It is just awful listening to the scanner around Fitchburg and Leominster

  94. A couple of things to point out.

    1. The October 1996 flooding. That was the result of an approaching front tapping into the tropical moisture from Hurricane Lili that was well offshore. Southern Maine got hammered, with widespread 10″+ over a 3 day period, including Portland, where 14.65″ was recorded at the airport over a 48-hour span. The jackpot was 19.19″ in Saco.

    2. The cone of uncertainty. It truly is amazing how many people do not understand that it has absolutely nothing to do with the confidence in the forecast. It is 2/3 of the average forecast error over the past five years. That’s it. Period. NHC explains it here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml

    3. Today’s rain. Double jackpots today, one southwest of Boston, one northwest. The highest totals as of 8:45pm:

    6.36″ Hollis, NH
    6.31″ Leominster
    5.71″ Hollis, NH
    5.04″ Nashua, NH
    5.02″ Westminster
    4.97″ Pepperell
    4.63″ Shirley
    4.58″ Fitchburg (KFIT)
    4.47″ Attleboro
    4.19″ Pepperell

    Some unofficial reports (from Weather Underground stations) of 5-7″ in the vicinity of Attleboro/South Attleboro/Valley Falls, RI. Also some reports of 5-8″ from Weather Underground stations from Leominster to Nashua, including one in Leominster that claims to have received 13.55″ today.
    3.94″ Attleboro

      1. also I’m aware of Maine etc in 1996. Daughter was there with friend and family. We were in Holliston area taking care of horses for both girls. It was. Horrific mess there too.

  97. Love our mets

    https://x.com/jimcantore/status/1701391568018538969?s=61&t=ce4mJRq91JtL8cJ1kZYs0A

    Recent trends from model guidance have brought #Lee back west enough so that it has put southeastern New England in the NHC track cone. It should be noted that track guidance can error by hundreds of miles for this time out 5-6 days. That said, Lee will likely be an expanding hurricane hundreds of miles wide, so even minus a landfall in the USA, which still appears a least likely scenario at the time of this tweet, rain and wind impacts could be felt well into New England especially with a more western track. Lee has gone from a wave maker to perhaps a bigger player into the weekend that may be worth at least some preparation at this point in the game. Bottom line: uncertainty to exact impacts for the northeast USA weekend remains.

  99. Nothing compared to north providence and north-central Mass, but there is a very heavy tstorm on the south shore (inland from the coast by 10-15 miles) at the moment.

  102. Raining moderately with some heavy bursts in Boston.

    In other news, Aaron Rodgers is injured. The Jets are cursed.

  103. They are calling it an ankle injury for now with X rays negative.
    3rd play from scrimmage Rodgers gets injured.

  105. Crazy night. We’ve been told by the town to shelter in place until further notice and they have opened a shelter in the middle school. Many basements flooded. Fire department out helping pump out basements. I have never seen it rain like this since I have lived her for 20+ years in North Attleboro. It poured torrentially for almost 6 hours today and our three day total is just about 10 inches.

  106. Sorry been tied up in contact with a close friend in the devastated area. She’s OK, but things are going to be really difficult there for a while during recovery.

    NHC has nudged the forecast track a bit to the east with the 11PM update in response to the ongoing guidance correction that I talked about earlier today.

    I am going to be working 3 double shifts in a row the next 3 days, so I won’t be around much. Updates should be on time each morning though.

    Two quasi-stationary boundaries with the perfect recipe for convergence and resultant torrential rain in the same area today left quite a mark in some cities / towns. Hoping for the best for all impacted.

    If there’s some good news, the Wednesday system looks a little less impressive to me and I maintain my thoughts about a miss from Lee.

  107. It took me 45 minutes to travel 3/4 of a mile in North Providence at about 545pm. Where I went to pick up something at a store had it’s parking lot flooded to the top of the car tires.

    Had to finally drive about 5 miles to get around the flooded roads so that I could arrive at the more shallow end of the flood at the bottom of our street.

    And my little 5lb dog thought she was going for a walk when I got home…silly dog.

  108. I am glad the trend on Lee is eastbound again. The western edge no longer includes Boston or SE MA or even MV now, just Nantucket.

    Whew!

  109. Cumulatively (N Andover) and short term (Attleboro-N Providence) and (Leominster-Fitchburg), these folks have experienced a significant/severe impact from the weather.

    May these 3 areas escape the more scattered and lighter showers today.

  111. Although almost all the models have projected a more Eastward path for Lee, the Euro has stayed the course.

    Last night’s 0Z

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023091200&fh=114&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    And one of the hurricane models still brings it close

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hafsb&region=13L&pkg=ref&runtime=2023091200&fh=120

    So, I am to presume that today’s 12Z run brings the Euro
    back in line??????

  112. Update soon, working on it now before I head in for a double shift (the first of 3).

    Vicki I see your message on messenger but my messenger is inexplicably not letting me open or answer any messages. No idea why it’s doing that. My phone and my laptop are both doing it, even after reboots. I can see message text when I expand notifications, but I can’t open or answer any messages. Hoping a glitch that clears soon. I saw a question about “72 hours” but I’m not sure what you were referring to. Feel free to elab here on blog and I’ll answer asap. 🙂

    SSK I messaged you early this morning about something and the error occurred right after that. Let me know if you got that message!

    Tom send me a test message when you have a chance.

    1. Hi Tom, yes I meant messenger, and I see your message in notifications, but same glitch. I can read all of it if I expand the notification, but I can’t open or reply to it. It’s a glitch I’m sure. Hopefully will clear itself later. Thank you!

      1. With no support from the other models, I figured that.
        So, you would expect the 12z run to be East, correct? 🙂

        1. I would expect so, but we’ll see, because the issue may still be there. But I’ll bet yes that it’s east but with still a wiggle at least.

            1. One of the ensemble members from the 06z GFS took Lee into southwestern New England SUNDAY and all the way to Hudson Bay. 😉 Nope.

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