DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 12-16)

A little surprise ocean-effect snow from Boston into the northwestern suburbs and the North Shore with low level moisture moving in from the southeast overnight with air cold enough to support flakes. We’ve had a minor accumulation / coating, just enough to slick up some roads and walks that were not treated, so be cautious if you have to travel early today before the temperature goes above freezing and it all vanishes. During the day today, with the approach of a warm front, we will still be under an overcast with scattered light precipitation, back to rain for the coastal plain and I-95 belt with a bit of freezing rain in pockets off to the northwest and snow well to the northwest, as mentioned on yesterday’s discussion. Still expecting the system passing to our northwest to give us most of its rain in the warm sector later tonight into Friday morning before the cold front pulls through and we start a dry-out process during the afternoon on Friday. A developing storm on the offshore front will tease far eastern New England with some clouds at times this weekend, and the rain/snow shield may make a run for outer Cape Cod briefly, but I expect it to stay offshore and keep the region dry between the storm and high pressure to the west, the latter of which will move in for MLK Jr Day on Monday with fair and more tranquil weather after a gusty breeze during Saturday and Sunday.

TODAY: Cloudy. Spotty light rain that may freeze on some surfaces well northwest of Boston and be in the form of snow for a while from southwestern NH into central MA before all transitioning to rain later. Highs 36-43. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain including embedded heavier showers with the chance of thunder. Areas of fog developing. Temperatures rising through the 40s. Wind SE 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH, strongest coast where gusts above 30 MPH are possible.

FRIDAY: Cloudy morning with numerous showers and a slight chance of thunder, especially southeastern NH through eastern MA and RI. Breaking clouds with partial sun possible midday on. Highs 48-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts in the evening, shifting to N.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 35-42. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas, diminishing later in the day.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22. Wind N under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 17-21)

Low pressure may still linger offshore early in the period and make a loop back, essentially dismantling an approaching front from the west on January 17, so we may end with lots of clouds but not much, if any, precipitation from that system, followed by high pressure with dry weather for a couple days. Another storm system from the west may move in later in the period with a rain/mix/snow threat, but this is low confidence.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 22-26)

A little less Pacific flow and a little more Canadian flow is expected, with a more seasonable temperature pattern. We’ll have to watch for one or two potential precipitation threats but they may be rather minor for a lack of moisture available, depending on the set-up.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 11-15)

High pressure brings fair weather to the region today with an “easy chill”, a cool day, above the average, and not much wind. Things still look much the same for our upcoming unsettled weather passing through. We cloud up and have spotty light rain and snow around on Thursday (snow most likely away from the coast, but light!), although some of the rain that falls may freeze on surfaces with temperatures just cold enough, as warm air tries to move in both surface and aloft ahead of low pressure. This low ultimately takes a track to our northwest and when we get into the warm sector is when we see our heaviest rainfall, Thursday night / early Friday morning, which may even include some thunder, but timing is fast enough that the cold front from the low sweeps through and offshore, so that most of Friday is rain-free, just windy and cool with breaking clouds. Additional low pressure evolves on the offshore front as it slows down as we get into the weekend, far enough to our east so that we see fair weather, but close enough so we feel a chilly northerly breeze from it, in combination with high pressure to our west at that time.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 37-44. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Spotty light rain, freezing rain, and snow especially afternoon. Highs 36-43. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain including embedded heavier showers with the chance of thunder. Areas of fog developing. Temperatures rising through the 40s. Wind SE 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH, strongest coast where gusts above 30 MPH are possible.

FRIDAY: A cloudy start with showers ending, then lots of clouds but breaks of sun. Highs 48-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts in the evening, shifting to N.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 35-42. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 16-20)

High pressure nudges east for a dry, more tranquil, chilly MLK Jr. Day. Frontal system from the west brings unsettled weather but maybe more clouds than precipitation for January 17 as it will be running into a non-supporting roadblock in the atmosphere. Chilly, dry weather follows this but as the flow in the atmosphere quickens it may be unsettled again by the end of the period with a rain/mix/snow threat.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 21-25)

This looks like a drier period that trends somewhat cooler to colder as we lose the Pacific flow and gradually re-introduce Canadian air to our region. Not sure yet if one more Pacific system will try to move through during transition, otherwise watch for a weaker low out of Canada with a minor precipitation threat around mid period.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 10-14)

A very quick update this morning… No big changes to yesterday’s ideas. Weak trough swinging through early today with clouds, then dry air returns into midweek with high pressure to the north. Watching low pressure for later this week. Models remain inconsistent and divergent and the overall idea remains the same. Unsettled weather (more clouds than precipitation) with a warm front Thursday, and low pressure tracking northwest of us Friday with a “glorified frontal passage” with rain, some heavy, and gusty winds (probably not damaging though). Improvement, while potentially slow at first, should be here in time for the start of the weekend.

TODAY: Lots of clouds, then mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 37-44. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 37-44. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog developing. Temperatures steady 37-44 evening then rising slowly overnight. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Highs 43-50, mildest South Coast. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially South Coast.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clouds break. Showers end. Lows 33-40. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Rain showers possible early favoring eastern areas. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 15-19)

High pressure brings dry weather for the balance of MLK Jr. Weekend. Frontal system from the west brings unsettled weather mid period. Fair, chilly, dry weather late period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 20-24)

This looks like a drier period that trends somewhat cooler to colder as we lose the Pacific flow and gradually re-introduce Canadian air to our region. Somewhere around mid period watch for a fast moving system with a little bit of precipitation.

QUICK NOTE

With a major project ongoing at home this week, there is a possibility that a couple days the blog may be late, or very brief, and if I’m lucky, that won’t be the case. My ability to check in will also be limited, but I’ll do it when I can.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 9-13)

The weather during this work week (Monday-Friday) will be fairly quiet until we get to the end of it. First, a quick shot of rain and some wet snow for southeastern areas with low pressure passing to our south early today before the system moves out and clouds give way to sun. A weak trough swings through early Tuesday, but you won’t really notice it, because it’s not really going to do anything, and then high pressure in eastern Canada keeps us dry with a bit of a chill in the air into midweek. As low pressure gets organized in the Midwest Thursday, its warm front will spread a deck of clouds into our region, but right now other than a little spotty light rain or snow, mostly to our north, I’m not really expecting much to happen with this front. The low center will pass to our northwest on Friday, which will be an unsettled day with a gusty breeze and periods of rain likely, but also above normal temperatures, as the mild side of our ongoing La Nina pattern continues.

TODAY: Cloudy morning with a touch of rain possible Outer Cape Cod and Islands, then increasing sun. Highs 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 26-33. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 37-44. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 37-44. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog developing. Temperatures steady 37-44 evening then rising slowly overnight. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Highs 43-50, mildest South Coast. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially South Coast.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 14-18)

The MLK Jr. weekend looks generally dry but evolving from breezy and chilly Saturday with a sun/cloud mix to a sunnier and chilly but more tranquil Sunday, to a variably cloudy holiday with a slight temperature moderation but a possible onshore breeze, depending on orientation of high pressure. Watching the end of the period for a frontal system from the west passing by with milder air, rain showers, then cooler/drier air behind it – but confidence is low on details and timing since it’s pretty far into the future.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 19-23)

This looks like a drier period that trends somewhat cooler to colder as we lose the Pacific flow and gradually re-introduce Canadian air to our region. Somewhere around mid period watch for a fast moving system with a little bit of precipitation.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 8-12)

High pressure brings fair but chilly weather to our region during today. Low pressure passes south of the region late tonight into Monday, close enough to drag its shield of cloudiness across our sky but far enough to keep its precipitation to our south. A trough swings through the region early Tuesday delivering some reinforcement of seasonably chilly air into the region. As we head through midweek, we’ll have to keep an eye on high pressure in eastern Canada and a boundary to our south, which eventually becomes an avenue for low pressure. I’m not trusting guidance handling of the set-up very much but what I think may take place is an initial disturbance tries to make a run at our region but doesn’t quite manage to survive at midweek, with a more formidable system approaching by later Thursday. Bottom line is my leaning is toward more clouds for midweek than actual storminess, with the latter likely holding off.

TODAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind NW to W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: High to middle clouds overspread the sky. Lows 22-29. Wind W to SW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Considerably cloudy beginning trending to a mostly sunny finish. Highs 38-45. Wind SW to variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 23-30. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. A brief passing snow shower possible through midday. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 13-20. Wind N 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

WEDNESDAY: Sun gives way to clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 13-17)

Low pressure passing through the Northeast early in the period with with a track that favors rain over snow, and another frontal boundary may approach by the end of the period, with a dry holiday weekend between. Temperatures near to above normal overall, but a brief shot of cold air behind the initial storm system.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 18-22)

Low confidence outlook for above normal temperatures and a somewhat active storm tracking bringing 1 or 2 unsettled weather opportunities. Odds would favor low pressure tracks through the Midwest / Great Lakes and rain over snow for this area, but much can change between now and then so only take this is a general idea for now.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 7-11)

Watch for black ice on untreated surfaces early this morning! The long stretch of early-in-the-year unsettled weather has ended, leaving us with fair weather for the first full weekend of January, as high pressure will be in control. It will be on the chilly side though, but not terribly cold, as we lack any kind of arctic air in the region or anywhere nearby right now. Low pressure passes south of the region Sunday night into Monday with some cloudiness, but keeping its precipitation shield to our south. A trough will pass through the area early Tuesday with some clouds, but snow shower activity associated with it should stay mostly to our north and east, with nothing more than a brief passing snow flurry possible at most. This will reinforce some chilly air as we head toward the middle of the week, as a high pressure area will sit over eastern Canada at that time.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 38-45. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy – least sun in the morning, most in the afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind SW to variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. A brief passing snow shower possible through midday. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 13-20. Wind N 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 12-16)

The confidence in trying to forecast this period of time remains lower than average. All medium range guidance indicates impact by low pressure sometime in the January 13-15 time range, but has not been consistent, with many different solutions between models and even run to run with the same model. Just keep in mind that an episode of unsettled weather is possible in there. No major warm ups or no major cold expected during this period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 17-21)

Low confidence outlook for near to above normal temperatures and a somewhat active storm tracking bringing 1 or 2 unsettled weather opportunities. No real detail is possible with this much uncertainty in the pattern this far out into the future.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 6-10)

The caboose of elongated low pressure will cross our region from west to east today – a potent upper level disturbance and a relatively weak surface low, in the process of redeveloping just south of New England, before heading quickly out to sea to our east. The event will be in the form of rain for much of the South Coast and MA South Shore up to Boston and the immediate coast from the MA North Shore to the NH Seacoast, with these areas mixing with and eventually turning to snow before ending, with up to but mostly less than 1 inch of accumulation of snow. The precipitation, starting as either rain or snow further inland, will flip to mostly snow, and may fall moderately a couple times, otherwise will be mostly on the light side, and it is in these areas that a 1 to 3 inch snowfall is most likely, mainly west of the I-95, with the 3 inch amounts most likely to occur in the Monadnock region of NH to the hills of central MA. The entire system exits by Friday evening, but colder air will create icy conditions on untreated surfaces, except along the South Shore and South Coast where it may remain sufficiently above freezing during the night to prevent this. As the weekend arrives we then enter a quiet stretch of weather. There will be a modest delivery of colder air from Canada during the weekend, most noticeable on Sunday. Monday, a low pressure system is expected to pass far enough south of our region to be a miss by all except some high cloudiness. A weak trough may pass by Tuesday with some clouds, otherwise it looks dry with a general west to northwesterly air flow across the region.

TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog this morning. Mix to snow develops west to east, except rain to mix ending as a period of snow along and east of I-95. Snow accumulation 1-3 inches I-495 belt westward, except under 1 inch in the southern portion of the I-495 belt and across the I-95 belt, with no accumulation South Shore and South Coast. Temperatures steady 30-37, coldest in higher elevations of central MA and southwestern NH. Wind NE-N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy early with snow/mix exiting quickly from west to east. Icy ground on untreated surfaces except MA South Shore and South Coast region. Lows 25-32 except 33-40 South Shore / South Coast, mildest Cape Cod. Wind N-NW under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 38-45. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind SW to variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 11-15)

The period starts with a shot of chilly air out of Canada, then the latest indications are high pressure to our north, low pressure to our south but far enough for mainly precipitation-free weather, but possibly with very limited sun, mid to late period. This is not a high confidence forecast, so pay attention to updates.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 16-20)

Continued lower than average forecast confidence in this time range. Best indications are for mild weather and a lack of storminess in the region, but with active Pacific jet stream flow we will have to keep an eye out for disturbances that are not seen well or timed well by guidance this far in advance especially as depicted crossing the continent.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 5-9)

Unsettled weather continues for 2 more days with a variety of conditions. Thankfully, the last bout of steadier rainfall which occurred late last night into the early hours of today occurred with surface temperatures safely well above freezing, preventing any icing issues. But with lots of low level moisture trapped under the elongated low as it continues to pass through our region, we can have drizzle (along with fog) at any time through tonight, and with a continued colder trend in temperature, some areas, particularly the interior higher elevations of southwestern NH and central MA, become more vulnerable to freezing drizzle/fog, so we’ll have to watch surface temperatures closely as we go. Additionally, a potent disturbance associated with the old original low pressure area, representing the end of the elongated low pressure zone, has to move through here on Friday, and by then the temperatures will be marginal to cold enough to support snow, especially from the I-95 corridor westward, and it may fall heavy enough at a time that, while relatively minor in accumulation, can have a significant impact on the Friday afternoon commute – so be aware of that potential. Friday night, the system moves out, but leaving behind a coating of snow and likely just wet ground in coastal areas, temperatures falling below freezing will lead to icy conditions, so also keep that in mind if you have Friday evening / night plans, even into early Saturday. The weekend and Monday will feature quieter weather but with a more seasonable chill, especially Sunday, as the core of a chilly air mass will move through then. A low pressure system I was watching for a potential Monday impact appears that it will travel safely south of New England at that time.

TODAY: Overcast. Periods of drizzle and areas of fog. Glaze ice may form on untreated surfaces mainly southwestern NH and central MA higher elevations by late-day. Temperatures falling 40s to 30s. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Areas of fog. Spotty drizzle and freezing drizzle (where temperatures are 32 or lower). Lows 30-37, coldest in higher elevations of central MA and southwestern NH. Wind N under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Mix to snow develops west to east, may stay mixed with rain east of I-95. Snow accumulation of 1/2 to 2 inches I-95 westward with spotty amounts up to 1/2 inch possible to the east by the end of the day. Temperatures steady 30-37, coldest in higher elevations of central MA and southwestern NH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow flurries in the evening. Icy ground on any untreated surfaces. Lows 25-32. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 10-14)

Watching a potential weak disturbance with a few snow showers early in the period and potential impact from low pressure toward period’s end. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 15-19)

With lower than average confidence I forecast a continuation of a similar pattern while we watch for the potential of more cold air showing up via Canada, with reservation. Not sure things line up to do that before the end of this period. With active Pacific jet stream flow we will have to keep an eye out for disturbances that are not seen well or timed well by guidance this far in advance especially as depicted crossing the continent.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 4-8)

The danger of the media speaking in absolutes will be proven, once again, today, by the lack of 60+ degree weather that many an outlet touted days in advance. While our area professional forecasters were cautious, many of the headline makers were not, so it ends up as misleading information. Now, I myself also spoke of 60 degree possibilities a few days ago for today, but with caution, as you know, with high pressure in eastern Canada being a potential thwarting influence on the big warm up. The observations at dawn today speak for themselves, showing a frontal boundary sitting right on the South Coast where temps are in the lower 50s, with the rest of the region in the upper 30s to lower 40s with either a light northerly or easterly wind. That frontal boundary may make a little bit of progress northward this morning, but any of that will be temporary, and the boundary will be shoved back to the south tonight and on through the end of the week. While this is taking place, a strung out area of low pressure will continue to provide us with a cloudy sky and occasional precipitation, which will tend more toward the freezing / frozen variety with time. The good thing is that as this happens, the quantity of precipitation will be limited, so the impacts will be lessened from that aspect of it. However, this does not change the fact that untreated surfaces will easily show the effects of the lowering temperatures as we move through Thursday and into Friday. The weekend’s outlook is improved, as it looks like most of the upper level energy I’d given as the reason for a chance of snow showers Saturday should be offshore before the day begins, thus allowing me to remove that chance from the forecast, just leaving it as a day of sun and passing clouds with a gusty breeze and seasonably chilly air. Sunday’s weather would be more tranquil as high pressure moves overhead but high clouds would already be appearing ahead of the next weather system in a Pacific jet stream pattern.

TODAY: Overcast. Areas of fog. Chance of drizzle, especially I-90 belt north. Highs 40-47 southern NH and northern MA and 48-55 elsewhere morning to midday, then cooling temperatures from north to south during the afternoon. Wind SW up to 15 MPH South Coast, N to E under 10 MPH elsewhere, becoming NE up to 10 MPH all areas from north to south by late.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Areas of fog evening. Periods of rain which may convert to freezing rain over inland areas of southern NH and northern MA overnight. Lows 31-38. Wind NE to N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain except potential freezing rain early in the day interior southern NH and northern MA, may mix with snow starting north and trending south during midday and afternoon. Highs 33-40, mildest South Coast. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of light rain, which can and likely will freeze on surfaces away from the coast, and possibly sleet. Lows 27-34. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow except some mix/rain possible South Coast. Highs 34-41. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A snow flurry possible. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 9-13)

This range continues to be forecast with moderate confidence as guidance remains questionable and the pattern remains fast-Pacific-flow-driven. Opportunities for unsettled weather exist January 9 and January 12-13, based on current trends and expected timing. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 14-18)

Continued lower confidence in forecasting this far out with opportunities for storminess probably twice during these 5 days and temperatures near to slightly above normal with the same general pattern idea. Some hints in the longer range that the pattern may start to shift to a colder, drier one with a northwesterly flow, but I’m not convinced this won’t be delayed initially. Much time to figure that out.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 3-7)

A stretch of unsettled weather will last most of this forecast period. Previous discussion basically holds. Low pressure will pass through our region in strung-out form, and the main forecast question yesterday was how far north a frontal boundary would get as a warm front tonight and Wednesday before being pushed southward by eastern Canadian high pressure as the elongation of low pressure was going by our region. Today’s answer is similar, but adjusted slightly to the colder side – less frontal progress – which is not a surprise as we have seen this set-up many times and it’s something I’ve been concerned about for a few days now. Being on the colder side of the boundary does set up some potential for slick travel later on. With this first batch of rainfall coming in today, developing and moving in around midday, while it is chilly, the temperature will sit above freezing in all areas, so icing is not a concern, nor is it during the main batch of rainfall as it passes through this afternoon and tonight. A break comes for much of the daylight hours Wednesday, but another batch of steadier rain comes in later, into the night and into early Thursday. Lower level cold will be more established at that time and the temperature may be at or even slightly below freezing over interior portions of southern NH and northern MA, creating icy conditions on untreated surfaces. Still additional precipitation will be around, albeit more spotty in nature, as we move into later Thursday and Friday, but this time enough cold air will have worked in aloft so that some sleet and snow will be involved, although not heavy. But this can add to some slippery conditions on untreated surfaces, and this time a little further south and east, while mix/rain may still be involved closer to the South Coast region with less of a chance of slick conditions there. Again not looking for a major winter weather event, but since we’ve lacked having to deal with slippery conditions much of the season so far, it’s important to note that it can be around and be on the look-out for it. By Saturday, the atmosphere will be drying out, but with some instability left as upper level low pressure still has to pass through, I am keeping the chance of a few snow showers in the forecast.

TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain midday on. Areas of fog developing, becoming particularly dense along the South Coast. Highs 36-43 except 43-50 South Coast. Wind SE under 10 MPH except around 10 MPH coast.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Overcast and foggy with periods of rain. Temperatures steady or slowly rising. Wind SE to SW 5-15 MPH, except may remain SE in areas to the north of the Route 2 corridor.

WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Areas of fog, especially north of I-90. Periodic rain showers, also areas of drizzle favoring locations north of I-90. Highs 40-47 southern NH and northern MA and 48-55 elsewhere morning to midday, then cooling temperatures from north to south during the afternoon. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts except E around 10 MPH in southern NH and far northern MA, becoming NE 5-15 MPH in all areas from north to south from midday through afternoon.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Areas of fog evening. Periods of rain which may convert to freezing rain over inland areas of southern NH and northern MA overnight. Lows 31-38. Wind NE to N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain except potential freezing rain early in the day interior southern NH and northern MA, may mix with snow starting north and trending south during midday and afternoon. Highs 33-40, mildest South Coast. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of light snow and sleet but can still be mixed with rain South Coast. Lows 27-34. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow except some mix/rain possible South Coast. Highs 34-41. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A snow flurry possible. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. A snow shower possible. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 8-12)

Moderate confidence forecast for mainly dry weather with near to slightly above normal temperatures, but watching for a minor system around mid period that may deliver brief precipitation, and the approach of another system as early as the very end of the period with another precipitation threat at that time.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 13-17)

Lower confidence forecast but still keeping an eye on the first couple days of the period for the opportunity to be impacted by low pressure and rain/mix/snow – TBD. Drier weather should follow that. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 2-6)

The pick of the first full week of 2023 comes early, and it’s an easy pick: today. But wait, what about those 60s on Wednesday? Shouldn’t we plan a beach day in January? Not so fast. Let’s go through this step by step to see how things really evolve, and why today will be a nicer day than Wednesday. Well, on the surface (yes, it’s a pun), it’s rather simple. High pressure controls our weather today, and even though its center is off to the south it exerts plenty of influence so we have dry air with temperatures a little above the seasonal averages, and while we will see some clouds at times related to disturbances passing to our north, it will be a nice day overall – for many people a holiday (the Monday observance of New Year’s Day). And then things change. You may recall last week that I indicated during this week we would be in a battle zone between warm air to the south and cold air over eastern Canada. The battle gets underway Tuesday as a warm front approaches, bringing in an overcast sky and a period of rain. While this is happening, high pressure will be building in eastern Canada, and a decent supply of low level cold air will be moving into northern New England. I’m not overly impressed with the set-up to push the warm air behind the front too strongly to the north, and this is why I am having my doubts as to how far that frontal boundary will get. For now, I am going to forecast the boundary making it into but not completely through the Woods Hill forecast area – probably into the I-90 and southern I-95 belt,. but maybe not all the way to the northern I-95 belt and the Route 2 corridor northward. If it does make it that far, it’s likely to be for a brief time only, as the low level cold will ooze southward by later Wednesday, assuming it hasn’t been so stubborn that it stayed in places in most areas. This is more easily accomplished as we will have a more strung-out west-to-east low pressure configuration to the south of the Canadian high pressure area. When we see this set-up, the models often forecast the warm air to make it too far north, and while it does move northward above us, it doesn’t really do so very well at the surface. And with plenty of moisture around, this means initially that we can have additional rainfall in the region, but with time, it may turn cold enough at the surface so that freezing rain and/or sleet become part of the equation, especially over interior locations to the north and northwest of Boston, sometime during Thursday. The scope of the issue this could cause would be determined by how much precipitation is around. We may end up with just spotty light activity, which would limit the trouble. As we get to Thursday night and Friday, cold enough air should move in at mid and upper levels so that whatever falls ends up in the form of light snow or snow showers. It’s uncertain how long that will hang around on Friday. Some guidance dries us out while other guidance keeps the cloud cover and precipitation chances going. Leaning toward the latter for now, but with plenty of time to adjust if needed.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 45-52. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly cloudy overnight. Lows 28-35. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain midday on. Areas of fog developing, becoming particularly dense along the South Coast. Highs 36-43 except 43-50 South Coast. Wind SE under 10 MPH except around 10 MPH coast.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Overcast and foggy with periods of rain. Temperatures steady or slowly rising. Wind SE to SW 5-15 MPH, except may remain SE in areas to the north of the Route 2 corridor.

WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Areas of fog, especially north of I-90. Periodic rain showers, also areas of drizzle favoring locations north of I-90. Highs 45-52 southern NH and far northern MA and 53-60 elsewhere morning to midday, then cooling temperatures from north to south during the afternoon. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts except E around 10 MPH in southern NH and far northern MA, becoming NE 5-15 MPH in all areas from north to south from midday through afternoon.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Areas of fog evening. Periods of rain which may convert to freezing rain over inland areas of southern NH and northern MA overnight. Lows 31-38. Wind NE to N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain except potential freezing rain early in the day interior southern NH and northern MA, may mix with snow starting north and trending south during midday and afternoon. Highs 33-40, mildest South Coast. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of light snow. Lows 27-34. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow except some mix/rain possible South Coast. Highs 34-41. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 7-11)

Trend is drier for the January 7-8 weekend but still may be some instability around the region with a passing snow shower or two possible especially the first half of the weekend, along with more seasonably chilly air. Brief precipitation threat may exist sometime in the January 10-11 time frame from the remains of a system trying to move through from west to east.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 12-16)

Continuing to watch time windows of January 12-14 and again at the end of the period for potential precipitation threats from an active Pacific to trans-US storm track. It’s always difficult to time these things so far in advance, so for now read this as a fairly active / unsettled pattern for mid month with temperatures near to above normal as I think coldest air will be prevented from or limited in moving into this region.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 1-5)

Happy 2023! Yesterday’s unsettled weather was wasting no time leaving us, and the weather today looks even better than I had forecast just hours prior. All showers are offshore, and the sky has at least partially cleared if not mostly cleared out, but we will see patchy clouds at times today, and possibly a trend back toward more later on as a disturbance approaches from the west. What will vanish and not return today is any early fog patches as the air dries out nicely. The aforementioned disturbance will only bring its clouds this evening before it moves through and beyond, setting up a nice Monday with high pressure in control. But the fair weather will be short-lived. A warm front will approach on Tuesday, bringing clouds back along with some rain, and another shot of unseasonably mild air for at least parts of the region into Wednesday (60+ high temps potential for some), before a cold front brings rain showers followed by a sharp cool-down into Thursday. I maintain a cautious eye on high pressure in eastern Canada to potentially dampen the Wednesday warm-up, at least for the northern and eastern portion of our region. With a trough along the coast and additional low pressure in the area, any rain may switch to snow during Thursday as the colder air arrives. Further elaboration on next update.

TODAY (NEW YEAR’S DAY): Sun/cloud mix. Highs 52-59. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds. Lows 32-39. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing overnight.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain by late day. Highs 46-53. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely in the evening. Areas of fog. Lows 43-50 early, then rising slightly. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog early. Chance of rain showers, especially late day. Highs 58-65. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Areas of fog. Lows 45-52. Wind shifting to N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain and snow. Temperatures falling into the 30s. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 6-10)

Unsettled weather potential including possible frozen precipitation January 6-7 and another minor system may bring a precipitation chance late period. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 11-15)

A low confidence outlook but watching the January 12-14 period for potential unsettled weather. Temperatures mostly near to slightly above normal.

This is the final Covid 19 chat post. The comment section will be open until March 21 basically taking us to the 3 year point since the start of the pandemic. Starting 5 days after this post was made, you can find it by going to the Archives section and scrolling to the first post under January. After January, make sure you go to the January section of the archive and scroll to January 1.

COMMENTARY

On this final day of 2022, I’d first like to thank everyone for participating in my blog during the year. Hoping for more fun discussion in 2023. This blog was created for weather forecasts and discussion – and that’s what we do here. Simple, yes? Yup, other things come up too at times, but mainly weather as it goes – well, since this is a weather blog. However, since 2020, there has been a covid section, first published daily, and then recently moved to once per week. I am going to publish one more covid post on Sunday January 1, and it will be the final one. However, I am going to leave the ability to comment open for 80 days, so the place will still be there to chat about the pandemic until March 21. Starting January 5, you will be able to navigate there by going to the “Archives” section of the menu, clicking on January, and scrolling to what will be the first post of the month/year. I have a few more exciting things planned for WHW in 2023, so look for news about that in the future. 🙂 To all, a safe, happy and healthy new year is my wish! Peace & cheers! And now, onto the weather…

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 31 – JANUARY 4)

After a very mild day yesterday, we’re going to see a repeat on the final day of 2022 – maybe a touch cooler than yesterday though due to thicker cloud cover and a little more southerly air flow off cooler ocean water, especially along the South Coast and nearby areas. With an increase in low level moisture, we’ll see a few rain showers around the region during the day. Unfortunately, it looks like an area of light rain will move into and through the region during the evening hours, putting a bit of a damper on travel to and from destinations as well as events like Boston’s First Night. At least the mild air will make the light rain more tolerable. We’ve had it far worse. The system responsible for the wet weather will be in a hurry to move through and we’ll have some lingering dampness and cloud cover Sunday morning just behind it, before drier air returns and we clear out. While the first day of 2023 will be quite mild as well, I’m not looking for outrageous warmth or any records to be set, and somewhat cooler air will be flowing in as we get to Sunday night and Monday – still a mild day but down a few from Sunday. It will also be a dry day with high pressure moving in. The next round of unsettled weather arrives Tuesday as a warm front approaches there region, bringing the clouds back, and eventually some rain. The low parenting this warm front will be tracking to our northwest, and its cold front will then come across the region later Wednesday with additional rain showers, but between the fronts, in the warm sector, we may challenge some record highs on Wednesday..

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered rain showers. Highs 52-59. Wind S 5-15 MPH, gusts to 20 MPH.

TONIGHT (NEW YEAR’S EVE): Overcast. Periods of rain and areas of fog. Lows 43-50. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY (NEW YEAR’S DAY): A cloudy start with areas of fog and a chance of rain, especially eastern areas, then breaking clouds / increasing sunshine. Highs 51-58. Wind W 5-15 MPH increasing to 10-20 MPH, a few higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 32-39. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain by late day. Highs 46-53. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely in the evening. Areas of fog. Lows 43-50 early, then rising slightly. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog early. Chance of rain showers, especially late day. Highs 58-65. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 5-9)

Cooler to colder weather settles in during this period but only bringing temperatures back to near to above normal. We’ll have to watch for 1 or 2 waves of low pressure that can bring rain/mix/snow to the region, especially in the January 6-8 window.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 10-14)

The outlook is not high confidence, but the overall pattern should still be dominated by a Pacific jet stream and a lack of really cold weather. However, temperatures will be marginal enough that any precipitation type can occur with unsettled weather, and I am currently eyeing the window of January 12-14 for a potential threat.

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 30 – JANUARY 3)

As we approach the end of 2022, we will experience a spell of mild weather thanks to a combination of a Pacific jet stream having flushed most of the cold air out of the US and high pressure to our south giving us a warming southwesterly air flow in contrast to the anomalous arctic delivery from southwest wind just about 1 week prior. We see fair weather today, but as we count down the final hours of 2022 and get ready to welcome 2023, we’ll have to deal with a low pressure and frontal system from the west bringing us some wet weather for New Year’s Eve and into part of New Year’s Day. This won’t be a heavy rain producer, but enough to put a damper in some of the outdoor celebrations and travel to and from New Years events. At least we won’t have to deal with any ice as our temperatures will be running quite above normal – maybe even challenging a few record high minimums for the first day of the year. The current record high mins for 1-1 are 48 at Boston, 45 at Hartford, 43 at Worcester, and 42 at Providence, all set in 1965. Drier air will return during the midday and afternoon hours of Sunday behind the departing system, and a shot of slightly cooler air, but still milder than normal, will be inbound for that night as well as Monday, with dry weather. Clouds return Tuesday as a warm front approaches ahead of low pressure heading for the Great Lakes.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 50-57 South Coast, 57-64 elsewhere.. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog especially near the South Coast. Highs 50-57. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT (NEW YEAR’S EVE): Overcast. Periods of rain and areas of fog. Lows 43-50. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY (NEW YEAR’S DAY): Cloudy with rain tapering off in the morning. Areas of fog until midday. Breaking clouds giving way to sun afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W with higher gusts by late in the day.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 32-39. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Late-day and nighttime rain expected. Highs 45-52. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 4-8)

Warm sector weather as low pressure passes to the north of our area January 4 with very mild temperatures and a chance of rain showers. Cooling trend thereafter but only back toward normal as high pressure builds in eastern Canada and toward the Great Lakes while another high holds off the East Coast but gives ground with time. In between that, for our region, there can be additional unsettled weather with rain then some risk of mix/snow before a series of disturbances depart the region late period. There will be a lot of fine-tuning to do as we get closer to this unsettled stretch.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 9-13)

Pattern should support closer to normal temperatures heading toward mid January with fair weather to start then a return to unsettled weather.