DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 3-7)

Coastal areas will experience rough surf and high rip current risk today as Hurricane Sam passes by far offshore, and then conditions will subside. Today we’ll be fighting off a rain-producing system with a high pressure shield that is weakening, but we’ll get through the daylight hours across the region without the rain – just varying amounts of cloud cover. We’re starting out relatively mild today, or at least not as cool as yesterday morning was, and it will start to warm nicely across the region even further, only to be thwarted in southern NH and northeastern MA by a frontal boundary advancing southward through the region during the day. There may be some ocean-moisture-created low clouds that come in behind this front, so any thin enough areas to allow sunshine through higher clouds later in the day may be of no benefit in some locations due to the lower cloud cover. Eventually, that frontal boundary will continue and complete its southward journey by tonight as low pressure approaches from the west, finally spreading rain across most of the region, first to the north, then southern areas get involved, and a fairly widespread rain shield will be over the region for early Monday, before it thins out and breaks up somewhat, only to have another return by Monday evening into Monday night. As we get to Tuesday, a renewed push of high pressure from eastern Canada will begin a gradual drying process from north to south, and we’ll see the rain end first, and eventually a decrease in cloud cover, but that may take into mid week to fully occur. High pressure should be more atop the region by Thursday which at this time looks like a fair and mild day.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 58-65 southern NH and northeastern MA, 65-72 elsewhere. Wind variable up to 10 MPH early, becoming E 5-15 MPH southeastern NH and northeastern MA, SW 5-15 MPH elsewhere.

TONIGHT: Becoming cloudy. Occasional rain north of I-90 by mid evening with patchy rain to the south. More widespread rain likely overnight. Areas of fog overnight. Lows 48-55. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Steadiest rain in the morning. Occasional rain in the afternoon. Highs 56-63. Wind variable to E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Lows 48-55. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog in the morning. Rain diminishing north to south. Highs 56-63. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 50-57. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 8-12)

High pressure is expected to sit over and just north of the region with fair and seasonable weather. We need to watch low pressure sitting to the south of the region for possible northward push, or at least some of its moisture being drawn northward into the region.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 13-17)

Low pressure from the south and west may bring wetter weather for the first part of this period before a drier westerly air flow finally takes over. This continues to be a low to moderate confidence forecast.

C-19 Chat Post – October 3 2021

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 2-6)

The first weekend of October may not be a stellar early autumn weekend, but for those in the WHW forecast area (southern NH, central and eastern MA, eastern CT, and RI) it won’t really be that bad either. Temperatures which started out with a bit of a chill this morning will rebound nicely today even though sunshine will be limited at times by an abundance of high and mid level cloudiness streaming in from the northwest. There is enough mid level moisture to possibly result in brief rainfall in southern NH and northeastern MA this morning before that area moves out. We’re on the “warm” side of a boundary for now. This is the boundary mentioned in yesterday’s discussion which makes Sunday’s temperature forecast more tricky as it is destined to sink southward, back-door cold front style, during the day. This will leave areas mainly south and west of Boston warmest while areas to the north and east turn noticeably cooler. We also have the wild card of whether or not some lower cloudiness comes in off the ocean in the cooler areas, while we’ll still be dealing with a lot of higher clouds streaming in above. Eventually that higher and mid level cloud cover will thicken and lower and lead to rainfall, but at the moment I think the rainfall will only be patchy by Sunday evening before becoming more widespread overnight into Monday morning, before becoming patchy again. Regardless, a wet start to the week seems likely as a wave of low pressure moves along that frontal boundary. All the while, high pressure will still be centered to the north and will be ready to make a southward push, eventually enough to kick the wet weather out of here. However that may take until later Tuesday to happen, leaving us with dry weather by the middle of next week. Whether we get rid of the clouds by then or not is another matter and one I will figure out as we get closer to it. And I know you’ve been hearing this all week but one more reminder of the increased ocean swells / surf / rip currents (if you have coastal plans) due to Hurricane Sam far offshore.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Brief showers possible southern NH and northeastern MA this morning. Highs 63-70. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 43-50. Wind WSW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 58-65 southern NH and northeastern MA, 65-72 elsewhere. Wind E 5-15 MPH southeastern NH and northeastern MA, variable to SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Becoming cloudy. Occasional rain north of I-90 by mid evening with patchy rain to the south. More widespread rain likely overnight. Areas of fog overnight. Lows 48-55. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Steadiest rain in the morning. Occasional rain in the afternoon. Highs 56-63. Wind variable to E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Areas of fog. Lows 48-55. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain mainly in the morning favoring southern areas. Highs 58-65. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 50-57. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 58-65. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 7-11)

High pressure is expected to sit over and just north of the region with fair and seasonable weather. We need to watch low pressure sitting to the south of the region for possible northward push, or at least some of its moisture being drawn northward into the region.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 12-16)

Low pressure from the south and west may bring wetter weather for the first part of this period before a drier westerly air flow finally takes over. Low to moderate confidence forecast.

C-19 Chat Post – October 2 2021

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 1-5)

The month of October starts with a fairly nice day as high pressure approaches from the west, but the previously-mentioned “pinch” will be taking place as we have lingering influence from low pressure to the east and an approaching disturbance from the west. The low to the east will try to force this moisture to the southeast but it will run into dry air as it does that, so while cloudiness comes across our sky at times this weekend, I expect the weekend for southeastern New England to be a dry one. If you’re heading north though, you may run into some wet weather at times. The temperature forecast is a little tricky as we get into Sunday as it will depend on the position of a frontal boundary in the region. Finally, the moisture from the west will make it into the region by Monday, which looks like a wet day, and this may hang around into Tuesday before high pressure to the north regains foothold and starts to push the moisture off to the south. How quickly this happens is somewhat uncertain at this time. Also remember if you have plans near the coast this weekend, be aware of increased ocean swells / surf and rip current risk as a result of distant offshore Hurricane Sam.

TODAY: Sunny start then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 60-67. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 38-45 interior areas, 45-52 immediate coast and urban centers. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 43-50. Wind WSW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 58-65 southern NH and northeastern MA, 65-72 elsewhere. Wind E 5-15 MPH southeastern NH and northeastern MA, variable to SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain overnight. Lows 48-55. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Highs 58-65. Wind variable to E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Areas of fog. Lows 48-55. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain mainly in the morning favoring southern areas. Highs 58-65. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 6-10)

High pressure is expected to sit over and just north of the region with fair and seasonable weather. We need to watch low pressure sitting to the south of the region, especially toward the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 11-15)

Battle between high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south may be won by low pressure again before this period ends, and then by its end we should get into a drier westerly air flow. Low confidence forecast.

C-19 Chat Post – October 1 2021

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 30 – OCTOBER 4)

This final day of September will be a cool one and an upper level low spinning over the region (center just to the east and north) which is sending a band of showers across the South Coast as the day dawns will also provide the instability for some pop up afternoon / early evening showers later today. This low will slide to the east enough so that we will have dry weather Friday, and then the high pressure area approaching from the west is going to have its top pinched from 2 sides – from the upper low still not that far away in eastern Canada, and the approach of moisture from a new system to the west. This interaction probably means varying amounts of clouds for the weekend, but at this time I expect the dry air to be substantial enough to keep away a rain threat. That probably can’t hold any longer by Monday, which is looking more like a wet day at this time. And once again, if you have plans near the coast this weekend, be aware of increased ocean swells / surf and rip current risk as a result of distant offshore Hurricane Sam.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers South Coast early. Isolated to scattered showers redeveloping during the afternoon hours. Highs 58-65, coolest in higher elevations of southwestern NH through central MA. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 46-53 except 38-45 interior lower elevations. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

FRIDAY: Sunny start then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 60-67. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 38-45 interior areas, 45-52 immediate coast and urban centers. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 61-68. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 43-50. Wind WSW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain overnight. Lows 48-55. Wind SW to variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Highs 58-65. Wind variable to E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 5-9)

The beginning of this period may start unsettled before high pressure from the north wins the battle and we turn drier with fairly seasonable temperatures. Still have to keep an eye on low pressure to the south.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 10-14)

High pressure should be more dominant with drier weather in this stretch of time, and we should also start to see a transition to more westerly flow again in the larger scale pattern.

C-19 Chat Post – September 30 2021

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 29 – OCTOBER 3)

The feel of the cool side of early autumn has arrived and will continue for a few days. Upper level low pressure will still be over the region through Thursday and a disturbance brings the chance of some shower activity from late today into Thursday, though most of this time will be rain-free. The upper low pulls far enough east to eliminate the shower threat by Friday, so the end of the week and at least the start of the weekend will be dry. The question to answer is whether or not the dry weather lasts through the weekend. There are already indications that “spill-over” moisture, or an area of unsettled weather coming up over a ridge of high pressure to our west will slide down on a northwest flow and potentially at least cloud us up for Sunday if not bring some rain into the region, but enough dry air may be in place to hold this off at least for a while. Also, this is a reminder if you have plans near the coast to be aware of increasing ocean swells / surf and rip current risk by this weekend as a result of distant offshore Hurricane Sam.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. A late-day shower possible favoring southern NH and northern MA. Highs 61-68. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered to isolated showers. Lows 50-57. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers. Highs 58-65, coolest in higher elevations of southwestern NH through central MA. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 46-53. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny start then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 60-67. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 38-45 interior areas, 45-52 immediate coast and urban centers. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 61-68. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 41-48. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain at night. Highs 59-66. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 4-8)

At least the first half of this period is vulnerable to unsettled weather with periods of rain as it appears we’ll be in the battle zone between high pressure to the north and low pressure nearby or to the south. There is still the chance that high pressure wins the battle and the region ends up drier, especially later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 9-13)

High pressure should be more dominant with drier weather in this stretch of time, and we should also start to see a transition to more westerly flow again in the larger scale pattern.

C-19 Chat Post – September 29 2021

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 28 – OCTOBER 2)

A cold front will push through the WHW forecast area today, bringing shower activity and perhaps a few thunderstorms. The activity will be most widespread in CT, RI, and southern MA which are also the areas that run the higher risk of any thunder. This front pushes offshore later tonight and introduces the coolest air mass of the early autumn season so far which peaks in coolness Thursday before moderating a little later in the week. Upper level low pressure brings the chance of a few showers to the region later Wednesday into Thursday before high pressure supplies dry weather. Look for increasing ocean swells / surf and rip current risk by the end of this forecast period as a result of distant offshore Hurricane Sam.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers, favoring southern MA southward, with a chance thunderstorms especially south of I-90. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with additional showers South Coast, otherwise clearing. Lows 47-54. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny start then a sun/cloud mix with a pop up shower possible. Highs 61-68. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 50-57. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers during the morning. Partly cloudy with an isolated shower possible during the afternoon. Highs 58-65, coolest higher elevations central MA / southwestern NH. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 46-53. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny start then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 60-67. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 38-45 interior areas, 45-52 immediate coast and urban centers. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 61-68. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 3-7)

High pressure centered mainly to the north of New England should be close enough to make dry weather dominant, but a couple of areas of low pressure to the south need to be watched, and one may be close enough for a rainy interlude about October 4 before another threatens later in the period. Temperatures near normal overall.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 8-12)

The same general pattern should be in place with high pressure having a tendency to be near and north of the region while areas of low pressure to the south and disturbances to the west have to be watched. The idea remains to lean dry but know that the door is open for wet weather intrusions. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

C-19 Chat Post – September 28 2021

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 27 – OCTOBER 1)

A warm front crosses the region today but most of the shower activity associated with it goes across northern New England, leaving us with a mild sun/cloud mix kind of day. A cold front drops through New England from northwest to southeast tonight through Tuesday with little activity on it initially, but a recharge arrives in the form of an upper level disturbance from the west, meaning that southern MA, CT, and RI stand the greatest chance of shower activity from this front during the day Tuesday, with even a thunderstorm possible in a few areas. This front pushes offshore Tuesday night and ushers in a cool air mass for the middle of the week, but with an upper level trough moving across the region and surface high pressure back to the west and north, this leaves the door open for a few pop up showers Wednesday, and even a few more solid areas of showers moving through Wednesday night into Thursday with the help of a disturbance. High pressure edges closer as the trough pulls off to the east by Friday, with the first day of October likely featuring some diurnal clouds popping up but this time not leading to anything more than an isolated brief light shower in a few locations on an otherwise dry and pleasant though breezy day.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. A couple showers possible southern NH to northeastern MA. Highs 70-77. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20+ MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower possible, mainly across southern NH. Lows 57-64. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers, favoring southern MA southward, with a slight chance of a thunderstorm mainly south of I-90. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 47-54. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny start then a sun/cloud mix with a pop up shower possible. Highs 61-68. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 50-57. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers during the morning. Partly cloudy with an isolated shower possible during the afternoon. Highs 60-67. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 46-53. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny start then a sun/cloud mix with a brief light shower possible. Highs 60-67. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 2-6)

High pressure is expected to bring dry weather for the October 2-3 weekend with coolest weather Saturday and slightly moderating temperatures Sunday. Watching early the following week for at least temporary impact from low pressure to the south with the possibility of some rainfall during the early part of the October 4-6 window then drying out again with generally seasonable temperatures. We’ll also be dealing with increased ocean swells / surf in coastal areas from far-offshore Hurricane Sam.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 7-11)

The same general pattern may be in place with high pressure having a tendency to be near and north of the region while areas of low pressure to the south and disturbances to the west have to be watched. The idea at this time it to lean dry with near to above normal temperatures for the predominant pattern.

C-19 Chat Post – September 27 2021

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 26-30)

We’ve reached the final 5 days of September, and the final moments of the impact from a low pressure wave along that slow moving frontal boundary that has been around for the past 2 days. A decent slug of rain and some embedded thunderstorms visited eastern MA, RI, and southeastern NH overnight and very early this morning, and is rapidly exiting as I write. The canopy of cloudiness (and a few remaining showers) left behind will be exiting from southwest to northeast during this morning, turning today into something looking far different than it started out as drier air arrives. A small area of high pressure helping to bring this dry air in will hang around through Monday, another very nice day, dry but on the mild side. And then it’s time for a bit of a change, which will be signaled by scattered showers as a trough swings through and a cold front crosses the region during Tuesday. Behind this will be the coolest push of air so far this early autumn season for the middle of the week, with the help of high pressure building from Canada into the Great Lakes region, and a broad area of low pressure east of New England. The only thing we will have to watch for is the potential for a pop up instability shower one or both of those days, but odds are against it based on the evidence at my disposal at this time.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy with lingering scattered showers southeastern NH and eastern MA until the 8 a.m. hour except Cape Cod through 9 a.m. hour, otherwise increasing sun from southwest to northeast later this morning. Sunshine and passing clouds midday-afternoon. Lowering humidity. Highs 70-77. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, especially midday on.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 52-59. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind W 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

MONDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Chance of a shower late. Lows 55-62. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 65-72. Wind SW to NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 50-57. Wind NW 5-15 MPH and gusty.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 62-69. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 47-54. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 61-68. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 1-5)

As mentioned yesterday, there will be “things to watch” that threaten what otherwise can be a fairly dry start to October with cool air followed by moderating temperatures. The biggest threat to the fair weather outlook will be the evolution of low pressure south of New England, which seems as if it would be more of a threat toward the end of this 5-day period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 6-10)

There is evidence on medium range guidance still that the same battle between high pressure near or over the Northeast and low pressure to the south may continue into if not all the way through this period as well. This leaves a lot of uncertainty as this means the weather can range from unsettled / stormy (if low pressure is close enough) to tranquil (if high pressure is in firm enough control). So this will be one of those instances that you can hear the forecaster say “I really have no idea what the weather is going to be like.”. 😉