C-19 Chat Post – July 5 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 4-8)

Happy Independence Day!

You need no reminder that it hasn’t felt like early July around here for a couple days now, and today won’t either, but we’ll also start to see improvement in the weather as a slow transition back toward weather more fitting for the season takes place. Upper level low pressure is moving very slowly away, but still has enough influence on the region for a lot of clouds, eventual limited sun, and still some shower opportunities today. Drying accelerates a little tonight making pretty much all scheduled fireworks displays possible. Monday, we warm up a bit more with a small bubble of high pressure extends from the Mid Atlantic to just south of New England. But a warm front will be approaching later Monday when there will be an increase in cloudiness, and from west to east Monday night a round of showers and potential thunderstorms will visit the region on the leading edge of this warmer and more humid air, which will result in Tuesday being a fairly hot and humid day. A cold front will be moving into the region from the north northwest as low pressure passes north of the region, and this brings with it the chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday. The front won’t really push fully through the region and another front will approach from the northwest Wednesday, keeping the chance of showers and storms in the forecast. And the unsettled stretch will likely continue Thursday as that front also fails to fully push through and a disturbance comes along, along with some moisture associated with the remains of Elsa. This could enhance rainfall potential during Thursday for our area.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to isolated showers. Highs 65-72. Dew point upper to middle 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly to partly cloudy. Isolated showers possible evening. Lows 55-62. Dew point lower 50s. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 75-82. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible overnight, favoring southern NH. Lows 62-69. Dew point near 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs 85-92. Dew point rising to upper 60s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 78-85. Dew point upper 60s to 70. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling to near 60. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 70-77. Dew point 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 9-13)

Frontal boundary sits just to the south and slowly pulls away with a slow drying process July 9, temperatures below normal. High pressure moves in with fair and warmer weather July 10. The next disturbance returns shower chances and higher humidity then may hang around to continue another unsettled stretch in the July 11-13 time frame.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 14-18)

No big pattern changes. Should dry out then see another stretch of unsettled weather following that. Temperatures somewhat variable during mid month.

C-19 Chat Post – July 4 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 3-7)

I’d like to be writing a short blog update on this Saturday morning of a summer holiday weekend, but with temperatures in the upper 50s to near 60, a chilly wind off the Atlantic, a low overcast, drizzle, fog, and showers around, maybe you need some extra reading material, so let’s stretch this one out a bit. 😉 If you happen to be reading from outside of this area, I hope you are enjoying much nicer weather than we are currently experiencing. After a solid heat spell earlier in the week, we’ve fallen back to levels very reminiscent of Memorial Day Weekend, chilly, raw, damp. At least in late May one can justify that type of weather, being springtime and much earlier in the “warm season”, without chilly ocean nearby and weather set-ups that can still often propel winds more sharply off the water, not the more gentle sea breezes that we more often see as we move into the early weeks of summer. But this time, the synoptics conspired in such a way to show us a little more of an extreme case, and for the second straight time it’s falling on a holiday weekend. That, I assure you, is pure coincidence. The atmosphere has no idea what we are celebrating and observing. It’s just doing what it does. All we can do is make the most of that, so I hope you find a way to do that if you had outdoor plans that have to be changed. The peak of our “bad” weather comes today when we have the strongest northeasterly air flow at the surface, and maximum amount of both low level moisture and moisture above us and upper level low pressure moving right over the region. This combination socks us in with thick cloudiness, with low undefined bases and sometimes fog as the air is pretty fully saturated. Drizzle is common and sometimes persistent, and the upper level low will help generate showers, a few of which can be on the heavier side. As of 8 a.m. today these already exist across the central MA and a good portion of southern NH, but can occur pretty much anywhere during today and into tonight as well. We’ll see a gradual, and I mean very slow improvement of the weather during Sunday. The overcast will start to thin at times, and you may see the sun trying to poke through. The drizzle will taper off, the fog will be more patchy, and while we still have the chance of showers as the upper low continues its lazy journey across New England. At least any shower activity will be diminishing and the last of it should exit by early Sunday evening. Full improvement finally comes during the overnight hours, leaving Monday, the observed holiday for some, as the nicest day we’ve had in a while with a good deal of sunshine, fairly dry air, and a nice temperature recovery. Unfortunately, many folks will have planned this as a travel day. Well, at least the roads will be dry! And now for the part where we add insult to injury. A warm front comes through the region Monday night with some cloudiness and perhaps a passing shower or thunderstorm, then we’re back into the heat for Tuesday, which returns after the warm front passes and ahead of an approaching cold front. This front may be fast enough to bring a shower and thunderstorm threat by late Tuesday or Tuesday night, but the early indications are that it will slow down and not really get all the way through the region, leaving us warm and somewhat humid and vulnerable to additional unsettled weather on Wednesday. Details will have to be fine-tuned for how that plays out…

TODAY: Overcast. Areas of fog and drizzle. Scattered to numerous showers. Highs 58-65. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH, strongest in coastal areas.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle. Numerous showers evening becoming scattered overnight. Lows 56-63. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to isolated showers. Highs 65-72. Dew point upper to middle 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly to partly cloudy. Isolated showers possible evening. Lows 55-62. Dew point lower 50s. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 75-82. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible overnight, favoring southern NH. Lows 62-69. Dew point near 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of late-day or evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs 85-92. Dew point rising to upper 60s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 78-85. Dew point upper 60s to 70. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 8-12)

The frontal boundary bringing unsettled weather chances from late Tuesday through Wednesday will still be in the region to start this period, and we’ll also have to watch the remnants of a tropical system from the south that may increase rainfall chances as well, but this should move quickly enough and high pressure should start to advance in from Canada so that we start to dry out by July 9 and set up at least a nice start to the July 10-11 weekend, which may turn unsettled before it ends from an advancing warm front and low pressure area, bringing additional shower and thunderstorm chances for the end of this period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 13-17)

The pattern will be one of air mass changes and a couple opportunities for showers and storms again, but it’s impossible for specific timing this far out.

C-19 Chat Post – July 3 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 2-6)

This holiday weekend (Independence Day) won’t be just like the previous holiday weekend (Memorial Day). Only about half of it will…….. oops. Ok, yes, it could be worse, but we are definitely not going to be looking outside or be outside and think thoughts of beautiful summer weather, unless your idea of it is overcast, wet, and much cooler than normal. But hey, if you were one of the many complaining about it being too hot for several days earlier this week, your complaints have been answered by Mother Nature. Happy now? 😉 So enough sarcasm and on to the actual reason our weather has turned 180. First off, it’s not really unusual. It’s not unusual to be hotter than normal and it’s not unusual to be cooler than normal, even in summer. The averages we go by are made up of these above-normal and below-normal episodes. This just happens to be a case where a strong version of each take place over a short period of time, and the timing is pretty bad if you were looking for some nice summertime weather for your outdoor plans. But not all is lost here. If today and Saturday held a lot of your plans, then it’s not good. If your outside stuff is more Sunday and/or Monday, things are not looking quite as dim. We have to deal first with a wave of low pressure passing by a frontal boundary that is sitting just to the southeast of New England now, and this brought in some significant rainfall last night, which has continued, especially in eastern areas, into this morning, but will taper to more of a showery / drizzly situation during the day today. But we still have to deal with an upper level low pressure area crossing the region, and it’s going to take all day Saturday and even until early Sunday to complete its journey. With a northeasterly air flow for much of the region Saturday, and still a lot of low level and mid level moisture around, this doesn’t bode well for what was previously a more optimistic forecast I had made. I can’t be optimistic about Saturday any longer, so expect an overcast day with occasionally wet and continually very cool conditions. Finally, on Sunday, the wind goes around to a drier northwesterly direction behind departing low pressure, but just enough cold air lingers aloft that when the air tries to warm a little bit, we can still see some showers pop up. These are not going to be widespread, and will probably be limited more to inland locations. The air will still be cooler than normal Sunday, though. Just without the more persistent dampness and frequent wet weather of the two days that precede it. With Monday being the observed holiday for many, the opportunity will be there to salvage one very nice summer day, as high pressure moves in, centered to the south, and although it will be a weak high it will be enough to push in a warmer southwesterly air flow and supply a good deal of sunshine, although that sun may start to filter out later in the day as the leading edge of hot and humid air mass starts to approach. The warm front marking the leading edge of this air will cross the region Monday night with clouds and a risk of a shower or thunderstorm, though most of that activity may end up passing to the north, and we’ll find ourselves briefly back in heat and humidity for Tuesday between that warm front and an approaching cold front, which may bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms by late Tuesday or Tuesday night, depending on its timing…

TODAY: Cloudy. Widespread showers morning. Numerous to scattered showers this afternoon. Areas of drizzle and fog. Highs 65-72. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH especially coast.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle. Scattered showers. Lows 55-62. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle. Scattered to numerous showers, especially afternoon. Highs 60-67. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle. Showers likely evening, diminishing overnight. Lows 55-62. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Clouds break for partial sun. Chance of a shower early in the day. Scattered afternoon showers possible mainly interior higher elevations. Highs 68-75. Dew point upper to middle 50s. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Dew point middle 50s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 75-82. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible overnight. Lows 62-69. Dew point near 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of late-day or evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs 85-92. Dew point rising to upper 60s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 7-11)

Frontal boundary sits nearby July 7-9 with opportunities for showers and thunderstorms, with potentially enhanced rainfall by the middle of the period depending on the future track of TS Elsa (forecast to reach the Florida area) and its remains (which may move northward across the eastern US and exit via New England). Drier weather arriving later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 12-16)

Another period of higher humidity and shower/thunderstorm chances followed by drier weather again.

C-19 Chat Post – July 2 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 1-5)

Some folks like to start their long weekends on Thursdays, a fair amount start them on Friday, and with Independence Day falling on a Sunday, the holiday will be observed on Monday for many, so we’ll just call this 5-day forecast period the outlook for the holiday weekend. It won’t be a repeat of Memorial Day Weekend, but it is not going to be a stellar period of weather either. The front that moved down into the region yesterday with thunderstorms, breaking our heatwave, sits nearby today and while it dissipates another front will move down from the north and continue to send cooler and less humid air into the region. But less humid is only relative in this case, because the air will actually be quite humid, just have lower dew points, and lower temperatures. We’re going to see a period of showery weather especially tonight into Friday as moisture travels northeastward along these frontal boundaries and upper level low pressure moves into the region. This upper low will take its time exiting during Saturday and Sunday, but the surface air flow which starts out northeasterly on Saturday will turn more westerly by Sunday. This will result in improving weather during those days, but not absent of a little drizzle or a few showers Saturday, and maybe a few pop up showers Sunday. If you want a day to feel like full summer again, that’ll be Monday, when we’re into a westerly air flow and a much warmer air mass arrives.

TODAY: Lots of clouds, partial sun at times. Isolated showers until mid afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms mid afternoon on. Highs 75-82. Dew point near 70 falling to middle 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Numerous showers. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling to near 60. Wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming N to NE.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Widespread showers in the morning, becoming more scattered during the afternoon. Areas of fog. Highs 65-72, coolest coast. Dew point middle to lower 60s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Patchy fog. Lows 55-62. Dew point upper to middle 50s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Scattered showers possible, favoring central MA, eastern CT, and RI. Areas of fog and drizzle especially eastern coastal areas in the morning. Highs 65-70 coast, 70-75 inland. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly to partly cloudy. Lows 56-63. Dew point lower 50s. Wind NE up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated afternoon showers possible, mainly southwestern NH and central MA. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Dew point upper 50s. Wind variable to W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point near 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 6-10)

Briefly hotter with a chance of showers and thunderstorms from an approaching cold front July 6. Front settles just to the south July 7 with additional clouds and possible showers favoring southern areas. Seasonably warm and drier weather July 8-9 before clouds and showers return at the end of the period with a disturbance moving into the region.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 11-15)

Near to above normal temperatures and an increase in humidity but with a slightly better chance of showers and thunderstorms as a frontal boundary hangs out in the region.

C-19 Chat Post – July 1 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 30 – JULY 4)

On this final day of June we will also experience the final day of high heat and humidity in this early summer stretch of it. Unlike the last 2 days, today carries a risk of more regional thunderstorm activity as a cold front approaches. The timing looks a little later on this today, with the primary threat for the WHW forecast area coming in the 4PM through 9PM time frame from northwest to southeast. There can be a couple isolated shower or storms popping up ahead of that threat window, as early as 2PM or so. The greatest threat for severe weather is damaging wind with the storms. Small hail is a potential, along with the usuals: heavy downpours, lightning. If a storm cluster forms and trains over the same area for a while, which is possible, then flash flooding would become a threat, so we’ll have to watch for this as well. If you plan to be outside today into this evening, obviously plan for both the high heat and humidity and watch for approaching or developing storms – and have a plan! Once we get by this threat tonight, the cold front that delivers it will also deliver slightly cooler and less humid air, but only down a little bit, and as the front washes out over far southern New England Thursday we’ll still feel a bit of humidity and it will be a warm day, but we’ll be dealing with a lot more high and mid level cloudiness than we’ve seen during the last few days. An influx of moisture will head northeastward toward our region Thursday night while a second frontal boundary pushes through from the north. This front may trigger a few more showers and thunderstorms in the region Thursday afternoon, and the combination of it and the moisture arriving from the southwest is expected to bring more widespread showers to the region later Thursday night into a portion of Friday, before we see a drying trend north to south, along with much cooler air this time. High pressure from Canada will push the unsettled weather further south as we reach the holiday weekend, but upper level low pressure will still be stretched out across the region and will take a good deal of time to depart, so at this point I cannot rule out some scattered shower activity Saturday and isolated showers for Sunday. As far as the actual weekend goes, humidity levels will be quite manageable, and Saturday will be the cooler of the two days with a general northeasterly flow. The wind should be variable then eventually more westerly on Sunday allowing for a bit of a warm up to get underway.

TODAY: Early clouds north central MA and southern NH otherwise mostly sunny through midday. Partly to variably cloudy this afternoon and evening with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible by mid afternoon, then scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms from northwest to southeast later afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms can become severe. Highs 88-95, cooler South Coast.. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy evening with showers and thunderstorms favoring eastern and southern areas. Partly cloudy with patchy ground fog forming overnight. Lows 67-74. Dew point upper to middle 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy but some sunshine. Highs 75-80 South Coast, 80-85 elsewhere. Dew point middle 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Numerous showers. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling to near 60. Wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming N to NE.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, especially CT, RI, southern MA. Highs 68-75. Dew point near 60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 55-62.Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers possible, favoring central MA, eastern CT, and RI. Highs 65-70 coast, 70-75 inland. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 56-63. Wind NE up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated afternoon showers possible, mainly southwestern NH and central MA. Highs 75-82. Wind variable to W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 5-9)

Warmer slightly more humid with a chance of a few showers and thunderstorms later July 5 and again July 6 with a couple disturbances passing by. Mostly fair and seasonable weather mid to late period with weak high pressure in control, but this remains a low confidence forecast.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 10-14)

Near to above normal temperatures and an increase in humidity but with a slightly better chance of showers and thunderstorms as a frontal boundary hangs out in the region.

C-19 Chat Post – June 30 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 29 – JULY 3)

The next 5 days will be a good example of the range of temperatures we can see in the summertime, with a hot spell peaking today, backing off ever-so-slightly tomorrow, then ending as July arrives landing us on the cooler end of the spectrum by the end of the work week / start of the holiday weekend. Our Bermuda High continues to pump the heat and humidity into the region today. The atmosphere this afternoon will be very slightly more unstable than it was yesterday, so there is a slightly better chance that some isolated shower and thunderstorm activity will occur in the WHW forecast area this afternoon, where it stayed well west and north of the area yesterday. Most locations see nothing of the kind, but those who do can experience a torrential downpour and of course lightning as the cell peaks. These tend to last a short-time before raining themselves out. So while they are not highly likely, be on the look-out if you are out and about this afternoon. And most importantly, remember your heat precautions and safety measures! A cold front will be getting closer to the region later Wednesday, which will still be a hot and humid day, but with a better chance of at least scattered to possibly linear or segmented lines of showers and thunderstorms developing and arriving in the region later in the day. A slightly slower front would keep this activity mostly to the west and north – something to watch. The initial frontal boundary does get into the area Thursday, but in a dissipating state, and that day will still be humid though not as hot, with a pop up shower or thunderstorm possible with some solar heating. Later in the day expect more substantial cloud cover to take over as we start to see another front coming down from the northwest while some overrunning of tropical moisture starts to take place over the air mass boundaries. Some of this moisture will be from what was called a tropical storm as it quickly formed and made landfall in the US Southeast Monday. This could help produce a period of widespread and potentially heavy shower activity Thursday night and part of Friday, before it pulls away and we’re just left with some lingering showers favoring southern areas Friday, and much cooler air. High pressure from Canada is expected to have enough push to dry the region out but keep it on the cool side for the start of the holiday weekend on Saturday. There is still some medium range guidance that highly disagrees with this scenario, keeping the weather wet.

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible from mid afternoon to early evening. Highs 90-97, cooler South Coast. Dew point near 70, may fall to middle 60s. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 87-94, cooler South Coast.. Dew point upper 60s to 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of evening showers. Patchy fog. Lows 67-74. Dew point upper 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 82-89, cooler South Coast.. Dew point upper to middle 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Numerous showers. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling to near 60. Wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming N to NE.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, especially CT, RI, southern MA. Highs 68-75. Dew point near 60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 55-62.Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 65-70 coast, 70-75 inland. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 4-8)

The idea of high pressure from Canada coming down over the weekend remains, and if it’s correct we should see mostly fair weather and slight warming for July 4, but some upper level low pressure not far away can trigger some afternoon showers and thunderstorms. A shot of heat and a little higher humidity for July 5 which is counting as the holiday for some, along with a chance of showers and thunderstorms later as a front approaches from the west. If the timing of that system is slower, we’d get by that day without a real storm threat and the next day (July 6) would be more unsettled, followed by a drying trend by the middle of next week. Confidence on this time period is lower than average, so check updates.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 9-13)

Near to above normal temperatures and an increase in humidity but with somewhat limited shower and thunderstorm chances. to start then increased later in the period as a frontal boundary to the north starts to drift southward into the region. Impossible for daily details this far out.

C-19 Chat Post – June 29 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 28 – JULY 2)

The story will be the hot and humid weather for the first 3 days of this week, which are also the final 3 days of June. Please keep in mind as we get to the end of this month and you start hearing data via media for Boston, that the thermometer where official records are kept has been reading 2 degrees too high for the entire month, so the average will also be skewed by 2 degrees in that direction. It’ll be billed as the hottest June on record there, yet likely wasn’t. A warm June? Yes, most certainly. But we also had some cool days in there too. Bottom line: Not a brutal June, but a hot stretch early in the month and another hot stretch to end it. The Bermuda High will continue to do its thing into Wednesday and our only chance of seeing any rainfall before then will be from isolated air mass showers and thunderstorms that have a remote chance of popping up in a couple locations mainly well west of Boston today and a very slightly better chance of doing it tomorrow anywhere, but mostly west and north of a Boston-Providence line. These will be the vast exception and far from the rule, but if one does occur where you are, you can experience a torrential downpour along with briefly gusty wind and of course lightning and thunder, so if you are out and about, just know that even though quite low the chance, it’s not a 0% chance. On Wednesday, the shower and thunderstorm chance will increase, and the timing and placement of activity is going to be highly dependent on the location and movement of a cold front moving in from the northwest. It will take a couple days to nail down the timing and the day-of to start focusing on specific threats. Either way, Wednesday will still be a hot and humid day before any activity moves in. There’s been a difference of opinion between myself and much of the guidance for how the second half of this week plays out, but here are my current ideas on it. The cold front that approaches later Wednesday gets into southern New England by Thursday but starts to wash-out or fall apart and a second front drops down from the northwest later Thursday through early Friday. This brings the opportunity for a couple rounds of showers and thunderstorms Thursday, with still very warm and humid air in place, and as a little wave of low pressure moves along the front as it sits just to the south on Friday, some additional showers may occur, along with temperatures that will then be much cooler than they were for the first few days of the week. Before Friday is over, we may see a distinct dry-out and end to the shower threat from north to south. This has weekend implications, but we’ll get to that in the next sections. First, the details for the next 5…

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Very slight risk of a late-day shower or thunderstorm well west of Boston. Highs 88-95. Dew point upper 60s to 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Slight chance of isolated late-day showers and thunderstorms mainly northwest of a Boston-Providence line. Highs 90-97, cooler South Coast. Dew point falling to middle 60s. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 68-75. Dew point middle 60s. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 87-94, cooler South Coast.. Dew point upper 60s to 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of evening showers. Patchy fog. Lows 67-74. Dew point upper 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 82-89, cooler South Coast.. Dew point upper to middle 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog forming. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling to near 60. Wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming N to NE.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, especially CT, RI, southern MA. Highs 68-75. Dew point near 60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 3-7)

There’s been a disagreement between the guidance and myself about the weekend of July 3-4, with many runs painting a far more gloomy & doomy scenario than I believe we are going to see. Call it a meteorological hunch, but the performance of said guidance about 5 and 6 days out for the weekend we just had was less than stellar, with models foretelling of a front moving in with showers and thunderstorms, when in reality we saw the build-in of summer heat and humidity with no such shower & storm activity. This time, I feel that Canadian high pressure is still being under-forecast by the guidance in general, and that we’ll see a stronger push from it resulting in a generally dry Saturday-Sunday period, coolest Saturday with a northeasterly air flow, milder Sunday with more of variable wind evolving into a regional land breeze from the west as the high pressure area sinks to the south. Am I highly confident of this play-out? No, not yet. So please follow the updates through the week, because it’s entirely possible that the guidance can make my hunch look like a joke. Time will tell… Looking into early next week (July 5-7), expect the return of summer warmth and some humidity, along with the chance of a few showers and thunderstorms especially later in the period as a disturbance moves in.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 8-12)

A “weaker” version of our current pattern tries to set-up with high pressure to the south, another high residing somewhere in eastern Canada, and a boundary between. It’s many days away but my general idea is that we’re on the warm/muggy side of the boundary through mid period and then the boundary moves into or even south of the region again by late in the period. Once again plenty of time to evaluate the weather during this time, as it’s often harder to pick out distinctive medium range patterns in summer than it is during the other seasons.

C-19 Chat Post – June 28 2021