DAYS 1-5 (MAY 28 – JUNE 1)
The weather is going to be much cooler than it has been recently and on the unsettled side as we head into and through the Memorial Day Weekend. That much has become clear. The little details of the day-to-day weather are being worked out in each forecast update, and it’s coming into focus that it looks like our wettest weather will be tonight and Saturday morning and during the day Sunday. Sunday’s timing is a little faster than what was indicated yesterday. While I’m not ready to declare Monday a “save”, there is still a chance of some shower activity based on what I see now, but we may salvage part of that day with some dry weather and even some sun. Basically, the unsettled weather is going to the the result of two low pressure areas. The first one comes at the region via the Ohio Valley tonight into Saturday, passing just to the south on a frontal boundary sitting there. We’ll have a chilly northeast to east wind during this. Not atypical for late spring, while some of us were at or above 90 just a couple days ago, most of us will be stuck in the 50s, even some upper 40s, during Saturday and Sunday. We get a break in the rain as the first low moves away during Saturday, but a second low pressure area forming on the boundary to the south will then be pulled northward right into New England on Sunday, bringing the rain back. There is still a little bit of conflict among the various computer guidance about how far west this low tracks, with some guidance bringing it far enough west that we get into a more humid southerly air flow for a time Sunday night into Monday, ending that with a round of showers before the wind switches to north, while other guidance keeps that low center further east and keeps us on its cooler side, but also pulls it out of here quickly enough so that the majority of Memorial Day Monday is dry. At the moment, my leaning is toward the second scenario, but not without some threat of wet weather to at least start the day before potential improvement. There will still be some fine-tuning needed for this forecast. By Tuesday, high pressure will be offshore to the southeast of New England and we’ll see immediate results in the form of warmer weather to welcome June.
TODAY: Increasing clouds. Rain arrives west to east late afternoon / evening. Highs 60-67. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Overcast. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Lows 41-48. Wind E 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Rain tapering to drizzle then ending by late morning. Highs 48-55. Wind E 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 41-48. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain returning south to north in the morning. Areas of fog. Highs 50-57. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog and drizzle. Lows 43-50. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY (MEMORIAL DAY): Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers in the morning. Partly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 60-67. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog possible. Lows 50-57. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 71-78. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 7-10 (JUNE 2-6)
Seasonably warm, more humid, and episodes of isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms with the general pattern likely to feature high pressure offshore, high pressure in Canada, and a weak boundary nearby. An intrusion of cooler air is possible around June 4-5, but not certain.
DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 7-11)
Overall idea right now is similar pattern will continue.