DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 14-18)
Firstly, I don’t want to neglect to mention that today is a new moon, and the tides are astronomically high, and some minor coastal flooding is likely to occur near high tide times especially along east and north facing shores… For some time we’ve been anticipating a middle of December stretch of active weather that features some wintry weather opportunities, and 2 such opportunities are now pretty certain, one today and another at midweek. First today’s, which will be a minor event as a wave of low pressure approaches from the southwest and passes just south of New England by this evening. This will be occurring as cold air filters into the region, so with temperatures marginal for rain vs. snow, and on the milder side of the line in many areas, this event will likely start as rain or a mix of rain and snow for many areas later this morning. During the afternoon is when colder air will filter in from the north and some will be brought down from above adequately enough to flip the precipitation over to mostly snowfall, which will then exit from west to east by early evening as this progressive system exits the region. It will leave behind a minor snow accumulation, favoring areas near and south of I-90, but a burst of moderate snow can leave untreated roads slick for a while, and as temperatures fall tonight behind the system, any untreated wet surfaces will become icy. That cold air will be delivered with a little more force on Tuesday as what was our minor low pressure wave intensifies into quite the storm as it passes through the Canadian Maritime Provinces and creates a healthy northerly air flow out of eastern Canada between itself and high pressure north of the Great Lakes. While Tuesday will be a day with plenty of low angle December sun, it will be a cold one, and helps to set the stage for our next storm system. This low pressure area starts out as a rather innocuous looking system in Texas Tuesday, but travels steadily eastward through the lower Mississippi Valley, picking up moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, then heading northeastward toward the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. A warm front extending eastward from this initial low will be the focal point for the development of a new low pressure area near the Carolina Coastline through Wednesday, which will then travel northeastward, passing southeast of New England Thursday. All the while, high pressure will sit over eastern Canada, supplying plenty of cold air. At this point, there are still some notable model guidance differences in how much snow will fall, but they are in general agreement that the odds favor the heaviest snowfall being in the southern half of Massachusetts southward. With the amount of cold air expected to be around and the track of low pressure offshore, this should be a straight snow event for pretty much the entire region, with the only possibility of mixing being on the outer part of Cape Cod and Nantucket, just due to the ocean water temperature still on the mild side. Going to hold off on putting snowfall numbers on this system until tomorrow morning’s update, but just know that an event requiring at least some snow removal is rather likely. As it departs and the sky clears Thursday night, we’re set up for a very cold night and a cold/dry Friday.
TODAY: Cloudy. Rain/mix arriving west to east by late morning and midday, transitioning to mix/snow through mid afternoon before ending by evening. Snow accumulation of a coating to 1 inch especially near and south of I-90, with an isolated 2 inch amount possible. Highs 33-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 21-28. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 31-38. Wind NW 10-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 17-24. Wind N under 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Sun followed by increasing clouds. Highs 28-35 Wind N up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Thickening overcast. Snow arriving late evening and overnight. Lows 18-25. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Overcast with snow (possible mix outer Cape Cod & Nantucket), ending late. Significant snow accumulation possible in southern NH and northern MA and probable southern MA southward. Highs 23-30. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Blowing snow possible. Lows 10-18. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 10.
FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 19-23)
Dry, cold weather expected behind storm with Canadian high pressure December 19. Next unsettled weather threat comes later on December 20 with rain/mix/snow possible, followed by a return to dry weather December 21 with a shot of seasonably chilly air. Have to watch for a minor system with snow/mix possible toward the end of this period.
DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 24-28)
Active pattern may continue with at least one and possible two precipitation threats to be fine-tuned as we get closer. Variable temperatures, averaging close to normal overall.