7:24AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 22-26)
Marine air paints today grey, and an approaching trough and associated warm front / cold front combo makes tonight and early Wednesday wet, but a drying westerly air flow brings bright weather back during the day Wednesday from west to east and sets up some nice weather for Thursday, the pick of the week, as high pressure moves in. The next trough brings cloudiness back on Friday, and eventually a wet weather threat by late-day or night, which may linger into Saturday before drier, cool air arrives from the north.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 53-60. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows 45-52. Wind SE to S 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy early with rain showers possible, then mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Wind W 10-20 MPH evening, diminishing overnight.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Late-day rain showers possible. Highs 57-64. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain possible morning. Clearing afternoon. Highs 52-59. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 27-31)
High pressure should bring fair weather October 27. The October 28-31 period is uncertain as a boundary may be nearby but playing it cooler than average to start with a risk of some unsettled weather from a disturbance to start the period, then somewhat drier with a gradual temperature moderation. this is a very low confidence forecast at this time.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 1-5)
Low confidence here as well. Have to determine the strength and staying power of high pressure off the Atlantic Coast and an approaching trough digging into the Midwest. One or two opportunities for wet weather may present themselves, though they don’t look significant this far out, and it may start mild then trend cooler.

7:35AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 21-25)
The remains of Nestor exit, dry air replaces that and today turns fairly nice, but an approaching trough and a surface east wind will turn Tuesday into a grey day, even if some areas start with sun, and then that trough will swing through with significant showers Tuesday night, but moving right along so that fair weather returns Wednesday and continues Thursday, thanks to an area of high pressure. By Friday, the next frontal system will approach with the return of clouds, and by Friday night we may be back into some wet weather once again.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Early rain showers possible southeastern MA. Clouds most dominant morning, sun most dominant afternoon. Highs 57-64. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 43-50. Wind E under 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 53-60. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows 45-52. Wind SE to S 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy early with rain showers possible, then mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Wind W 10-20 MPH evening, diminishing overnight.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Late-day or nighttime rain showers possible. Highs 57-64. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 26-30)
Cautiously optimistic about a dry October 26-27 weekend but will have to keep an area on 1 or 2 waves of low pressure on a front to the south, just in case. In either case, expect below normal temperatures. Brief unsettled weather possible about October 28 otherwise mainly dry and cool into the middle of next week as well.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 31-NOVEMBER 4)
Leaning toward a mainly dry pattern with a quick moderating trend then another cool-down.

7:34AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 20-24)
No changes today from yesterday’s outlook. High pressure gives way to the approaching low pressure remains of Nestor today, the center of which will pass southeast of New England early Monday with a risk of a period of rain mainly southeastern areas mainly late tonight and very early Monday. Fair weather returns with a sliver of high pressure over the region between departing Nestor remains and an approaching trough from the west. A surface easterly wind will bring in low level moisture for what likely turns out to be a cloudy Tuesday, but rain showers from the trough and associated surface low pressure area and warm front / cold front combo will hold off until Tuesday night and linger into early Wednesday. After this a drying westerly wind arrives during Wednesday and high pressure builds in for Thursday with fair weather.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Increasing cloudiness. Highs 58-65. Wind variable under 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. A period or two of rain possible favoring RI and southeastern MA. Lows 50-57. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 58-65. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 43-50. Wind E to SE under 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 53-60. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows 45-52. Wind S 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy early with rain showers possible, then mostly sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Wind W 10-20 MPH evening, diminishing overnight.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 56-63. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 25-29)
High pressure moves offshore October 25 and a weak cold front approaches later in the day so this day would start chilly and dry followed by a quick warm-up and feature a rain shower threat to end it. Current thinking is this front will push offshore but October 26 may start with cloudiness as a wave of low pressure passes by, but high pressure from Canada should be strong enough to lean away from the unsettled weather risk somewhat. Still need to keep an eye on this being as far away as it is. The drier pattern may carry through the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 30-NOVEMBER 3)
Continued medium range model differences and current leaning continues to be for the up and down temperature pattern with a risk of minor precipitation events in an overall dry pattern.

7:56AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 19-23)
High pressure provides a nice weekend for the most part. If you want lots of sun, today’s definitely the pick of the 2 days. We will have to encounter a small speed bump as the weekend comes to an end in the form of increasing clouds during Sunday and the risk of a period of rain especially in RI and southeastern MA. This will be due to the close pass of the low pressure remains of Tropical Storm Nestor, a fairly quick-moving tropical system from the Gulf of Mexico that is crossing the southeastern US at this time. This low will be slowing and turning more to the east from its northeastward track as it passes, keeping that rain threat to the south, but subsequently leaving some of its moisture in a position to be at least partially grabbed by a low pressure trough approaching New England from the west on Tuesday. Impact of this interaction will not be significant, but it may end up a little more than just a band of showers Tuesday night and early Wednesday, so while this doesn’t turn into a major event or anywhere near it, it may just be a little more noticeable than it would have been. However, before that happens, it looks like we squeeze in some decent and mild weather for much of Monday and even into Tuesday, with the latter dependent on how much low cloudiness forms and moves in from the southeast ahead of the next system. When we get to Wednesday, a cold front will sweep through early and the unsettled stuff will be pushed offshore, with fair and breezy weather arriving.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear. Areas of frost forming. Lows 35-40 except 41-46 immediate coast and urban areas. Wind calm.
SUNDAY: Increasing cloudiness. Highs 58-65. Wind variable under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. A period or two of rain possible favoring RI and southeastern MA. Lows 50-57. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 58-65. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind E to SE under 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 60-67. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows 53-60. Wind S 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy early with rain showers possible, then mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 24-28)
High pressure brings fair and seasonably cool weather October 24 before moving offshore with a warm-up October 25 after a chilly start. Weekend of October 26-27 carries the potential for unsettled weather but too far away for details. Drier, possibly colder end of period as behind any unsettled threat comes a push of chilly air from Canada.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 29-NOVEMBER 2)
Caution needed for the forecast this far out with one model pushing a colder picture while another reliable one says “not so fast”. When I see this happen, knowing the colder model tends to rush pattern changes, my leaning is toward and up-and-down temperature pattern with 1 or 2 opportunities for mostly minor precipitation events. Elaboration will take place when there is enough confidence for it.

7:14AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 18-22)
Passing clouds and a gusty breeze are all that linger from our significant storm today, but we’re transitioning toward a very nice weekend. For sunshine, the pick of the weekend will be Saturday, and for temperatures, if you want milder, Sunday may have the slight edge, but they will really be close with two chilly mornings and somewhat milder afternoons. During this time, a tropical low pressure area from the Gulf of Mexico will be crossing the southeastern US and emerging off the Mid Atlantic Coast. Right now, it looks like all we see from this is some high level cloudiness at times Sunday and Monday, and perhaps some of its moisture getting pulled northward as a cold front approaches New England from the west by Tuesday of next week.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 56-63. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy frost. Lows 35-42 except 40-47 immediate shore and urban areas. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 38-45. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 61-68. Wind light variable
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Highs 60-67. Wind SE to S 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 23-27)
Rain showers give way to clearing October 23 as a cold front passes. High pressure brings fair weather October 24-25, starting cool then warming up. Next disturbance in a westerly air flow is due by later October 26 with risk of rain showers, and should move along for dry weather at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 28-NOVEMBER 1)
A bit of a blocking pattern may try to develop driving a west-east elongated trough into the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast. Jury is out on how dynamic the pattern is, but overall it doesn’t look too strong, so the trend would probably be cooler but with limited unsettled weather and more dry than wet during this period.

7:14AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 17-21)
It was like winning the weather lottery here in southern New England, having a sharp disturbance about as strong as you can see this time of year combine with a rare shot of southern jet stream energy to form a rapidly intensifying low that then came right up overhead. Impressive winds and heavy rainfall was experienced, as expected. Instead of listing details in terms of rain amounts and wind gust reports, I will let you all discuss that in the comments and I will move along with the updated forecast, which has a few adjustments. Nothing really to change regarding the weather the next few days though. We’re not done with the storm system yet, as the center of it will be completing a tight cyclonic loop north of the Massachusetts border and then move eastward, exiting New England via Maine later today. This set-up will cause a strong westerly wind and wrap-around rain showers as the low departs. Drier air will work in tonight and especially Friday, although during this time we can expected a gusty breeze to continue. Then a nice break for the weekend as high pressure settles to the south and a warmer westerly air flow takes over, but there is a little change for Sunday’s outlook. A system coming out of the Gulf of Mexico is going to end up off the East Coast by the end of the weekend, and the overall pattern will be warped a bit from what it looked like earlier, with fair weather hanging on but possibly a more southerly or southeasterly air flow. When Monday comes, a more southerly flow is expected as high pressure to the north of the region also bridges southward just east of the region, keeping the low offshore at bay.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Wind variable becoming W and increasing to 15-30 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly to mostly clear. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly to partly sunny. Highs 56-63. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy frost. Lows 35-42 except 40-47 immediate shore and urban areas. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 38-45. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 22-26)
A little slower timing expected, with mild air and a risk of rain showers October 22, then a front pushing through with a drying/cooling trend October 23-24 before it warms back up ahead of the next front October 25. That front may bring some unsettled weather by October 26.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 27-31)
Overall westerly flow but indications are for a trend toward near to below normal temperatures with at least one threat of precipitation in an overall dry pattern. Leaning away from activity being added to by any moisture from the south as it looks like that will be lacking.

7:41AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 16-20)
High pressure is exiting today but is close enough that we start with sunshine, but a vigorous low pressure trough moving eastward from the Upper Midwest and carrying a surface low will spawn a secondary low just southwest of New England this evening that will move rapidly northeastward right across southern New England tonight, maxing out in intensity by early Thursday as it does a cyclonic loop over NH/VT, then pulls away through Maine later Thursday. This type of track brings a quick shot of heavy rain to the region in most cases, and this won’t be much different than the average case, though the heaviest of the rain will likely occur west of southeastern New England, with another strip of heavier rainfall offshore, leaving this area somewhat “in the middle”, though not to downplay the impact of heavy rain reducing visibility for overnight driving, and road flooding especially as wind/rain knocks down leaves and clogs up storm drains. So even though the heaviest rainfall, which may contain embedded thunderstorms, will have exited pre-dawn, there may be some lingering road and parking lot flooding into the Thursday morning commute to be aware of. The other story with this system is the wind, which will become moderate to strong from the southeast and east ahead of the low’s arrival, variable during its passage and somewhat weaker, then returning from the west to northwest at moderate to strong speeds during Thursday, then diminishing only gradually through Friday as the low expands its size while traveling through eastern Canada as high pressure approaches from the west. Some tree damage is inevitable in our aging forest, and therefore some power outages will likely result. Coastal flooding will not be an issue with this storm system. Need a break? You got it this weekend as high pressure takes over, centered to the south, allowing a nice moderation in temperature, although expect a cold start on Saturday morning and a chilly Sunday morning. It will be the afternoons that are pleasantly mild to warm.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny start, cloudy finish. Highs 58-65. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Overcast. Rain arriving evening from southwest to northeast, peaking overnight with moderate to heavy rain and possible thunder, diminishing to scattered rain showers by dawn from south to north. Lows 50-57. Wind SE to E 15-25 MPH interior, 20-30 MPH coast, stronger gusts in all areas.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy morning with numerous to scattered rain showers. Partly sunny afternoon with isolated rain showers. Highs 56-63. Wind variable 10-20 MPH early to mid morning, becoming W to NW 15-35 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly clear. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly to partly sunny. Highs 56-63. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy frost. Lows 35-42 except 40-47 immediate shore and urban areas. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 38-45. Wind W under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 67-74. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 21-25)
High pressure moves off the coast and low pressure heads for the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Valley early next week, and our weather starts mild and fair October 21 then transitions to rain showers followed by clearing and cooling during October 22-23 based on current timing. Next disturbance may bring rain shower threat by later October 24 or early October 25 followed by breezy/cooler weather to end the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 26-30)
Still feeling that westerly flow should dominate overall but will continue to watch for a digging trough of low pressure trying to kick something more important off in terms of storminess to the south of the region. We will probably see an overall trend to near to below normal temperatures. Still much fine-tuning to do for late month’s weather.

7:41AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 15-19)
High pressure brings fair weather today, even into the first part of Wednesday, and then a vigorous low pressure trough, this time in the jet stream rather than cut off from it, will travel eastward and max out close to New England Wednesday night and early Thursday, with an initial surface low redeveloping pretty much right over southern New England. This will bring wet weather and wind, with the heaviest rainfall and possible thunder being a quick-hitting event for the region, followed by lingering rain showers as the low does a cyclonic loop pretty much right over the region. I feel that models are overdoing both the rainfall amounts and the intensity of the low, however it will be a decent autumn storm system nonetheless. By Friday, we’re back in dry weather but with a gusty breeze and cool air, and after a cold start Saturday, high pressure settling to the south of the region will provide a very nice mid October day to start the weekend.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-50. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 58-65. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain, possibly heavy at times. Chance of thunderstorms. Lows 50-57. Wind E 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, becoming variable 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Numerous rain showers early, then scattered to eventually isolated rain showers. Highs 56-63. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, becoming W and increasing to 15-25 MPH with gusts 30-50 MPH, strongest in exposed areas and in higher elevations.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly clear. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly to partly sunny. Highs 56-63. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy frost. Lows 35-42 except 40-47 immediate shore and urban areas. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 20-24)
High pressure brings fair, mild weather October 20. It will stay mild into the start of next week but a cold front will approach then pass through sometime in the October 22-23 period with rain showers then a switch to cooler weather. Another disturbance may bring a risk of rain showers by the end of the period as a westerly flow dominates.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 25-29)
Leaning more toward westerly flow domination and less risk of any impact from low pressure to the south from that October 26-28 period I’ve been watching. A storm may still form to the south but there are weaker indications of it being able to come northward if it does. The pattern would support up and down temperatures and limited rain shower risks, but a strong enough westerly flow may allow for a shot of very cool air before the end of the period.

6:54AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 14-18)
Today is the first day of a new work week for some, and the last day of a long weekend for others. Whatever kind of day it is for you, other than a brief rain shower threat from the South Coast to the Massachusetts South Shore, weatherwise it will turn out to be quite nice, as the shower-causing disturbance pulls away and high pressure approaches. This high will move overhead Tuesday ensuring another nice day. Things change quickly on Wednesday as a vigorous upper level trough of low pressure and resultant surface storm approach from the west, and with the initial low redeveloping just south of New England and moving right up over southeastern New England Wednesday night, this set-up brings a shot of significant rainfall. But it won’t hang around long, and heaviest part will likely be very short-lived, so while I termed the rainfall significant I am stopping short of terming it beneficial, as far as easing our every-growing deficit. The low will be deepening similar to a winter storm as it moves away Thursday, and while that day may start wet at least in parts of the region, dry air will wrap around the departing storm and enter the region on a strong northwest wind, and the October bluster will be in full force. As is typical for one of these systems, it will expand significantly across eastern Canada and the gradient between that low pressure area and a high pressure area moving in from the Midwest will keep a gusty breeze going right through Friday, a day that will feature dry and cool weather.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy RI and southeastern MA with early morning rain showers possible, otherwise partly to mostly sunny. Highs 64-71. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 44-51. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-50. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Clouding over. Rain arriving southwest to northeast mid to late afternoon. Highs 58-65. Wind SE increasing to 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain, possibly heavy at times. Chance of thunderstorms. Lows 50-57. Wind E 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, becoming variable 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy early morning with rain showers likely. Partly sunny mid morning on. Highs 58-65. Wind variable 5-15 MPH early, becoming NW 15-25 MPH with gusts 30-45 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly clear. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly to partly sunny. Highs 56-63. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 19-23)
High pressure moves in both surface and aloft and brings fair weather and a warming trend to the region for the October 19-20 weekend. Surface high pressure slides offshore October 21-22 with a stronger southwesterly air flow, warmer than average temperatures, but eventually a risk of rain showers as a cold front approaches, which should pass through by October 23 if current timing is correct, leading to dry and cooler weather at that time.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 24-28)
Westerly flow will try to continue its domination of the pattern with a quick moving system bringing milder weather ahead of it and a risk of rain showers October 24 to early October 25 followed by breezy and cooler weather again. The October 26-28 period is uncertain. The leaning is toward dry weather with moderating temperatures but we still have to watch for the potential for low pressure to develop south of the region, something not really seen by medium range guidance at this point. However even if it does occur, does not necessarily mean it would be close enough for impact – just something to watch being so far into the future.

7:34AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 12-16)
Today’s discussion will be much shorter than yesterday’s, mainly because there are not really any changes to the forecast beyond minor tweaks. Summarizing, we enter a milder westerly air flow but still have a couple disturbances that may produce rain showers, favoring areas south of Boston with timing pre-dawn Monday, and far northwest of Boston later Monday (a disturbance I’m giving a bit more weight to than previously). A bubble of high pressure brings nice weather Tuesday before low pressure approaches Wednesday, a day that may dawn bright but end wet and windy.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Passing rain showers late night, favoring areas south of Boston. Lows 53-60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of rain showers eastern areas early morning. Risk of a late-day rain shower central MA and southwestern NH. Highs 63-70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then mostly clear. Lows 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 46-53. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Clouding over. Rain arrives west to east afternoon. Highs 56-63. Wind SE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Overcast evening with rain likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Breaking clouds and areas of fog overnight. Lows 48-55. Wind SE 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to SW then diminishing.
THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 55-62. Wind shifting to NW 15-30 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 18-22)
High pressure approaches from the west keeping it cool, dry, and breezy October 18, then settle to the south of the region with dry weather and a warming trend October 19-20 weekend into early next week. A cold front approaching sometime early in the week at least increases the wind and may bring a rain shower risk as well.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 23-27)
General west to east flow pattern continues early in the period when a trough from the west should bring a rain shower risk to start the period followed by a shot of much cooler air. I’m no more confident about the set-up later in the period, but still see a potential set-up that could put low pressure south of the region by the October 26-27 weekend, but not sure if it would be close enough for impact, if it even set-up that way. So for now will stay with the mostly dry and moderating trend for late period but with very low confidence.

10:01AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 12-16)
As we progress through the heart of meteorological autumn, so far we have seen nothing very much out of the ordinary. We’ve had some early cool shots in a September that was dominated by milder weather thanks to a fairly stable pattern that placed a strong ridge of high pressure in the US Southeast, but close enough to exert its influence on the Northeast quite often. During the first 10+ days of October we have seen a few changes, along with a “typically atypical” occurrence. I don’t really like to think of the type of storm we have just seen as atypical, because that’s not really the right word. We’ve seen that set-up and slight variations of it many times. It was a storm system cut off from the jet stream. It may be more common to see such occurrences in the spring, but it’s very far from unheard of in the autumn. But more importantly, while the system evolved far enough offshore to have the impacts that I was anticipating, we did dodge a bullet as the system would have had more significant impact being closer to the coast. However, we likely would not have seen the intensification had it been closer to the coast as it was drawing on water from the gulf stream for its partial transition toward a tropical system. In fact, NHC felt the transition was enough to give it a name, Melissa. That would not have happened with a storm center a couple hundred miles closer to the coast, however it would have compensated for that somewhat by tightening up the pressure gradient and causing more wind and resultant impacts. Either way, the storm is now heading away from the area, and we do have lingering effects in the form of plentiful low level moisture with lots of drizzle and areas of fog to start out today. But as the day goes on, we will bring more and more dry air back in from the north and conditions will improve, at least in terms of ending the drizzle/fog. As far as clearing goes, that will be tough to really get all the way to the coast, but interior areas should start to see at least breaks in the clouds this afternoon. Any breaks/sun closer to the coast will be a bonus. The dry air will expand and take over the entire region during tonight and Sunday as we finally get into a much friendlier westerly air flow. But Sunday night, trough will swing rapidly across the region and may produce some passing rain showers, lingering into very early Columbus Day Monday, before fair weather returns for another nice day. Then more changes as we sneak in one more nice day Tuesday under the influence of high pressure, before a quick-moving low pressure system and vigorous associated upper level trough moves in during Wednesday when the weather will go downhill…
Forecast details…
TODAY: Overcast with areas of fog and drizzle gradually diminishing during the morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon but breaks of sun developing at least interior areas. Highs 53-60. Wind N 5-15 MPH but gusts 20-30 MPH especially eastern coastal areas.
TONIGHT: Gradual clearing. Lows 43-50. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Passing rain showers late night. Lows 53-60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of rain showers eastern areas early morning. Highs 63-70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Lows 46-53. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Rain likely. Highs 56-63. Wind SE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 17-21)
After a midweek system departs, look for a windy/chilly October 17 but with dry weather, a breezy/cool October 18 with more dry weather, and then a continuation of dry weather but with a warming trend over the October 19-20 weekend and possibly through October 21 as well as a high pressure ridge slides across the eastern US and pushes the jet stream northward.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 22-26)
General west to east flow pattern continues early in the period when a trough from the west should bring rain showers then a shot of much cooler air. Toward the end of the period it becomes far less clear of how the pattern may set-up as there have been subtle signs of some type of system with Gulf of Mexico moisture (rare occurrence lately) making a run at the Southeast and Mid Atlantic and possibly putting itself south of New England. What takes place would depend on the speed of the evolution, but I am not certain this takes place at all. Just something to watch for now. Going to lean toward an overall dry pattern with a moderating trend for the WHW forecast area for now.

6:51AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 11-15)
Low pressure offshore will be close enough to impact the region into early Saturday before pulling away. The most “widespread” rain in areas previously kept dry will occur today and this evening. By Saturday, as the low is on its way out the wind shifts more to the north with slight improvement in the weather, but still early rain shower risks and lots of clouds during the day. By Sunday, we’re into a westerly air flow with fair and milder weather, which will last through Columbus Day Monday, except for a quick-moving disturbance that will sneak through Sunday night with a risk of a passing rain shower. High pressure will control the weather Tuesday, another nice day.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain, most numerous southeastern MA/RI. Highs 52-59. Wind NE 15-25 MPH, stronger gusts especially coastal areas. TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain evening, tapering to scattered rain showers overnight. Lows 45-52. Wind NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Passing rain showers possible morning. Highs 56-63. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Risk of passing rain showers. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 63-70. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog interior low elevations. Lows 45-52. Wind light variable.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind light variable.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 16-20)
The trough spoken about for the middle of the 6-10 day period on yesterday’s update will be moving along and likely produce its wet weather threat October 16 before moving east and leaving the region in mainly dry weather for the remainder of the period, with a brief shot of cool air followed by a warm-up as a high pressure ridge builds over the region.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 21-25)
Eastward shift of features this period should bring a progressive trough eastward, some unsettled weather at times and a cooling trend. Not likely to have a long stretch of wet weather, just not easy to time when the threat may be this far in advance.

7:14AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 10-14)
Our cut off storm will be fighting a large high pressure area to its north and my suspicion about it not being quite as impactful will indeed be the case, not to dismiss the fact there will still be some heavy rain in southeastern areas, where it was most likely, and wind that will be strong enough to take down tree limbs and in some cases some weaker older trees which still carry leaves, and a few coastal flooding issues, though relatively minor. The rainfall comes in waves and is lighter as you go northwest. You can see visual evidence of the dry air fighting this storm if you are in Boston’s NW suburbs looking west and northwest at a strip of clear sky at dawn this morning. Nothing more to add that wasn’t here on the last update other than enough dry air may be involved to save at least part of the Patriots home game tonight from a driving rain, with just a bit of drizzle and passing areas of much lighter rain. It will be breezy and quite cool though, so if you are going to that game, dress accordingly for a gusty breeze and temperatures around 50, definitely not nearly as bad as it can be in the stadium later in the season or during the playoffs! Still looking for a slow pull-away of the storm later Friday after some additional rain, and Saturday, which will still feature a lot of clouds and a threat of a few showers along with continued breezy conditions. But the middle and end of the Columbus Day Weekend will be quite nice with a westerly air flow bringing mostly fair and milder weather but we will have to watch for a disturbance moving through around Sunday night or early Monday with a brief rain shower risk.
Forecast details…
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Periods of rain, heaviest southeastern MA/RI. Highs 52-59. Lows 45-52. Wind NE 15-35 MPH, stronger gusts especially coastal areas.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Passing rain showers possible. Highs 56-63. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Risk of passing rain showers. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with a rain shower risk early, then partly cloudy. Highs 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 15-19)
Generally westerly flow, overall pattern is dry, but trough crossing eastern Canada will parent a low pressure area which will drag a warm front / cold front combo across the region with a wet weather threat about mid period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 19-23)
Still a little uncertainty as to the overall pattern heading from mid toward late October. Taking medium range model bias into account going to hold onto the mostly west to east flow with a warm-up peaking at mid period, and mostly dry weather.

7:26AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 9-13)
A storm cut off from the jet stream will do a cyclonic loop south of New England over the next few days, impacting our weather into Saturday, with peak impact Thursday/Friday when southeastern New England will see its heaviest rain and strongest wind, and also coastal issues with areas of moderate flooding. This system pulls away during the weekend and and westerly air flow returns by Sunday. Highlights of storm impact will be 1-3 inches of rain possible over much of the area, except less in southern NH and pockets of above 3 inches possible in southeastern MA and RI where some flooding may occur. However with recent dry weather and low water levels in rivers, etc. the flooding will not be as bad had we been wetter leading up to this event. Coastal flooding is most likely along east-facing shores and closest to high tide times. Wind impacts will be mainly to old trees, which is often the case around here these days, but this leads to a power outage risk. Wind gusts will be strongest in coastal and southeastern areas. The storm center itself will not be particularly intense, but its the pressure gradient between it and a large high pressure area in southeastern Canada that will create the wind.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Clouding up. Periods of rain pushing into southern and eastern MA, RI and eastern CT. Highs 56-63. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain, heaviest southeastern MA/RI. Lows 45-52. Wind NE 15-25 MPH, gusts over 30 MPH especially coastal areas.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain likely, heavy at times favoring southeastern areas. Highs 52-59. Lows 45-52. Wind NE 15-35 MPH, stronger gusts especially coastal areas.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Passing rain showers possible. Highs 56-63. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 13-17)
Air flow becomes more westerly for this 5-day period with dry weather October 13, a disturbance from the west possibly bringing a few showers October 14-15, then dry weather after that. Temperatures not too far from normal.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 18-22)
The west to east flow will continue until about the middle of this period before we may see another set-up with high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south. Not a high confidence forecast.

6:36AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 8-12)
The cold front that went through the region with fairly widespread showers Monday evening has settled just to the south of the region, and while today is cooler and drier, the sky condition will range from mostly cloudy along the South Coast to at least partly sunny over northern MA and southern NH. Some lingering rain will dry up as it moves southeastward across the region during early to mid morning. High pressure will build across southeastern Canada through midweek and as this happens, an ocean storm will form well south of New England. This is a difficult set-up to forecast, as the storm will be in a region removed from the stronger jet stream steering, so its path is rather difficult to foretell. We’ve seen computer guidance range from a scenario that shows not much impact other than a gusty breeze and a little rain in southern areas, to a more direct impact of stronger wind and several days of wet weather. At this time, I’m leaning toward a scenario somewhere in between, but with a leaning toward a more southerly placement of the storm and less significant impact here. This will still have to be closely monitored. The time frame should be in the Wednesday night to Saturday morning time frame, with Thursday/Friday the 2 most likely days for the most direct impact. Will get more detailed on the next blog post…
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy South Coast. Partly sunny elsewhere. Highs 57-64. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of drizzle favoring East Coast. Areas of rain favoring South Coast. Lows 40-47. Wind E 10-20 MPH except 15-30 MPH South Coast.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of drizzle favoring East Coast. Areas of rain favoring South Coast. Highs 56-63. Wind E 10-20 MPH except 20-35 MPH South Coast.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny except mostly cloudy with periods of rain Cape Cod. Highs 55-62. Wind NE to N 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy except mostly cloudy with a chance of rain Cape Cod. Lows 40-47. Wind N 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 56-63. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 14-18)
Westerly flow for this period, risk of a few passing rain showers at times early and again at end of period otherwise generally dry with temperatures not too far from normal.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 19-23)
The west to east flow will continue until about the middle of this period before we may see another set-up with high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south. Not a high confidence forecast.