1:40PM
Before I get into this, a couple caveats. Please take note and remember.
* Don’t look at a computer model forecast of snow totals online or TV and think that’s automatically the forecast. I’m not a fan of these being shown on TV weather forecasts because they cause confusion. Who needs to see what the Euro, NAM, and GFS, and Canadian model for that matter are showing when the meteorologist is more than capable of looking at that data and coming up with the best forecast he or she can? Yes, we discuss them openly here on the blog, but its with the understanding that they are model forecasts and models have significant biases that the general public doesn’t need to be concerned with.
* When you see a forecast snowfall range here or anywhere else, PLEASE remember to pay attention to the range, NOT just the top number. For example, “12 to 18 inches” does not mean “18 inches”. It means “12 to 18 inches” The ranges are there for a reason. Snowfall accumulates at a ratio anywhere from 5 to 20+ times greater than rainfall does. A tiny difference in the amount of melted precipitation can make a huge difference in the amount of snow that falls. Please understand that snowfall can vary highly, even over fairly short distances, based on topography, proximity to ocean, and other factors.
* Realize that a forecast is a forecast. It’s a prediction of the future movement of complex fluids of differing densities. Always check trusted sources for updates, because even the best meteorologist will never make a perfect forecast. It’s impossible.
* Weed through media hype and listen to the facts. Most TV meteorologists out there in this area are decent, and though they have to play the ratings game, they will generally give a well thought-out forecast. Forget the sensationalism the anchors may throw out at you, even though it is not of bad intent. It’s just not necessary.
DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 12-16)
First, the advertised very cold weekend continues. There have been a few records established during this which we will review later. High pressure remains in control with dry and cold weather through Monday (what some of the old timers refer to as a “weather breeder” day – or that nice pleasant winter day you get right before all hell breaks loose, or something like that). Yes, there is a storm coming. Yes, it is going to be significant. No, it is not going to be the “storm of the new century” or the “end of the world” or “the biggest stawm eva!”. It’s going to be a good old solid late winter storm in New England, so let’s look at how I think things will play out in the simplest terms possible. Energy which has traveled great distance from several places to meet up for a party will do just that along the US East Coast starting Monday and a storm will result that will then take a fairly rapid north northeast run right up the coast. As always, the precise track of the low pressure center will have rather significant implications on snow amounts and any mix/change. To be honest, even after reviewing the latest info, I still am a little bit unsure which way to play this, but here is my best stab at it first in an overview here, then in details in the forecast section just below. It’s a 2-part event with main impact from a powerful and fast-moving surface low on Tuesday, tracking either over Nantucket and outer Cape Cod or just east of there. I realize there are model solutions both further west and further east of this still, and either of these are possible, because timing of the closing-off of an upper level low is critical enough that it will impact the track and even a 20 or 25 mile difference in the track of a low that covers hundreds of miles will have a giant impact on the amount of snow any particular location gets, especially closer to where any mix/change would occur. So based on the track I am going with, heaviest snow from the Tuesday part of the event would be in a wide swath from about the Cape Cod Canal westward including most of RI, CT, eastern and central MA, and southern NH. Amounts would possibly be less in western MA and CT due to them being further away from the storm center. The most likely area to see a change to rain will be Cape Cod and the Islands. And of course there is the potential for this still to shift one way or another. I cannot rule out a mix/change area getting deeper into southeastern MA and RI. Will re-evaluate this with the help of short range guidance as we get closer to the event. Also cannot rule out thunder in heavier precipitation bands. Wind impacts will be significant, especially given weakened trees from recent wind events. It’s also important to note that many of the trees that have come down in the last few events were weakened by drought, age, and insect infestation, which are all natural occurrences in an aging forest. Anyway, wind damage from gusts in excess of 50 MPH are possible especially in southeastern MA and favoring coastal areas from Boston southward. This would be most likely during Tuesday afternoon. Coastal flooding is also probable at high tide times and may be moderate to significant in typical areas. Why will this first system have no chance to stall and dump super high snow totals on the area? Because the upper level low pressure area that would capture it will still be back to the west and southwest of New England. In fact, this is the “part 2” of the system. Before that happens, a dry slot of lighter or no precipitation will likely move up into RI, eastern MA, and southeastern NH by Tuesday evening while snow continues in areas to the west. The next part of the system will have much less overall impact, but may still bring some additional accumulating snow to the region during Wednesday. This will be the upper level low pressure area swinging eastward through the region. Once we get to Thursday, this upper low will be exiting to the east and we’ll have a cold and dry day. Forecast details next…
THIS AFTERNOON: Sunny. Highs 24-33. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 5-10 interior, 10-15 coast/urban areas. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Sunshine becomes filtered by high clouds later in the day. Highs 33-40. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Thickening overcast. Snow South Coast before dawn. Lows 22-30. Wind light variable.
TUESDAY: Overcast. Snow area pushes north quickly in the early to mid morning and becomes heavy at times, first in RI and southern MA then the remainder of MA into NH, likely changes to rain outer Cape Cod and Nantucket, probably changes to rain mid Cape and Martha’s Vineyard, and may mix with rain a little further into southeastern MA and southern and eastern RI. Lightning/thunder is possible in heavier precipitation bands. By evening precipitation becomes lighter or stops in RI, eastern MA, and southeastern NH but snow lingers to the west before tapering off later. Expected snow accumulation through evening: 3-5 inches outer Cape Cod and Nantucket, 5-10 inches Martha’s Vineyard and mid Cape Cod westward to about the southern Cape Cod Canal, and 10-15 inches elsewhere with pockets of 15-18 inches possible in northwestern RI and eastern CT, central and east central MA, and southern NH, then amounts diminishing gradually to mostly under 10 inches over northwestern CT and western MA. Highs 25-30 most interior locations and 30-35 coastal areas but 35-45 over Cape Cod and the Islands. Wind NE 15-25 MPH inland with gusts 30-40 MPH, 25-35 MPH coast with frequent gusts 40-50 MPH, occasional gusts 50-60 MPH, and isolated gusts above 60 MPH especially coastal southeastern MA.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of snow. Additional accumulation likely. Lows 15-25. Highs 25-35. Coldest interior areas.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 10-20. Highs 25-35.
DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 17-21)
Dry March 17. Watching possible storminess during the March 18-20 period. Dry March 21. Temperatures below normal.
DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 22-26)
Watching possible storminess early and again late period. Temperatures near to below normal.