C-19 Chat Post – March 2 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 1-5)

Meteorological Spring begins today, but if the weather could sing, it might be singing “Manic Monday” today, the iconic tune written by Prince but made famous in the 1980s by The Bangles. We’re going to see a few quick changes in the weather over the span of today, which will end vastly different than it starts. We start out with periods of rain and areas of fog this morning as a wave of low pressure moves by. This will end toward midday as the low moves quickly away to the east northeast, and then we’ll have a round of scattered rain showers quickly cross the region as cold front number one moves through. It will dry out quickly behind this front, and although drier air will rid us of any lingering fog and lower clouds, we may hold onto a higher level cloud cover, the back edge of which may take longer to move across the sky. This potentially sets up a nice sunset situation at least for eastern areas, so sunset photographers be on stand-by! Temperatures this afternoon will be fairly steady as an incoming cooler air mass is balanced somewhat by the higher sun angle. And then the second cold front of the day, an arctic boundary, charges across the region from northwest to southeast this evening, accompanied by snow showers and snow squalls for parts of the region, which could quickly cause untreated surfaces to become slippery due to rapid though minor accumulation. This front will be followed by a sharp temperature drop later at night, along with some pretty ferocious wind and resultant wind chill lasting right into and through most of the day Tuesday, which will feel cold even by January standards, let alone early March. The fact that it is early March will help out though because of the higher sun angle, which will take the edge off the cold just a little bit. Luckily, the cold blast will be very short-lived, just a one-day thing, as a warm front will cross the area from west to east Tuesday night and early Wednesday. This front may have a band of light snow with it but that should stay to the north with just some clouds moving across the southeastern New England sky. It will usher in much milder air for Wednesday, and while it will be breezy that day we won’t see anything like the wind of the previous day. But don’t get used to that milder air either, for yet another cold front will drop southeastward from Canada through New England by early Thursday, returning colder air to the region for that day and Friday as well. An upper level low pressure trough crossing the region will probably trigger quite a few diurnal clouds Thursday afternoon, and this energy will still be over the region Friday which could cause additional passing clouds and possibly a few snow flurries.

TODAY: Overcast with areas of fog and periods of rain into late morning. Mostly cloudy with additional rain showers west to east early afternoon. Slow clearing from the west mid to late afternoon. Highs 45-52 by midday, then steady temperature first part of afternoon and falling slowly later. Wind SE 5-15 MPH with gusts above 20 MPH over Cape Cod and the South Coast region early to mid morning and variable up to 10 MPH elsewhere through mid morning, SW 5-15 MPH by midday then shifting to W and increasing to 10-20 MPH from west to east early to mid afternoon with higher gusts possible by late in the day.

THIS EVENING: Clearing early, then passing clouds with potential snow showers and snow squalls which may cause quick coating to 1/2 inch accumulation. Temperatures fall 30s through 20s. Wind W shifting to NW 15-25 MPH with gusts 35-45 MPH. Wind chill falling below 10.

OVERNIGHT: Clearing. Lows 6-13. Wind NW 15-30 MPH, gusts 35-50 MPH. Wind chill falling well below zero.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill often below 15.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Increasing clouds overnight. Lows 13-20 evening, rising into the 20s overnight. Wind NW 5-15 MPH evening, shifting to W overnight.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 41-48. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly to partly cloudy. Lows 18-25 Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow flurries. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 6-10)

Temperatures near to below normal. Watching for a potential winter weather event during the March 6-8 time frame but the trend has been to keep development further south. I don’t completely trust this solution just yet. We’ll be watching the evolution of the pattern into a more blocking set-up (more later).

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 11-15)

Blocking pattern. A couple of opportunities for unsettled weather which may include frozen precipitation. Temperatures near to below normal.

C-19 Chat Post – March 1 2021

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 28 – MARCH 4)

On this final day of February 2021 we will be dealing with a minor low pressure system, the second of two to effect the region this weekend. However, unlike Saturday’s which started as snow early in the day in part of the region, followed by rain for most of the region through the day, this system will struggle to do much, putting some rain across the South Coast during the afternoon and taking until tonight to deliver some light rainfall to the rest of the region. The air will be too mild to support any snowfall. After this relatively minor system pulls away in the early hours of Monday, a final band of showers may visit the region during the morning as cold front number 1 of 2 passes by. The air will not be all that cold behind this first cold front, so that Monday itself will be fairly pleasant, temperature-wise, although there will be a gusty breeze. It is when the second cold front, an arctic boundary, arrives from west to east during the evening that the bottom will fall out and the temperature will plunge. The arrival of this air mass may be marked by some snow showers and snow squalls during Monday evening. Snow squalls can quickly drop visibility to near zero with heavy snow, which can also quickly coat the ground and make for slippery travel, even for a while after they have departed. Our arctic air, which will make the second day of March on Tuesday feel more likely the second day of January, will only be around for one day. By Wednesday we’ll see a significant temperature rebound as milder air arrives from the west. However, during Thursday another cold front, this one not quite as strong, will slide through the region from north to south and introduce somewhat colder air once again.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Some afternoon rain South Coast. Highs 45-52. Wind W under 10 MPH shifting to SE.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of light rain. Areas of fog. Lows 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH..

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the morning. Partly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 45-52 by early afternoon then turning cooler by late-day. Wind variable to SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Snow showers/squalls possible. Lows 5-12. Wind W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts shifting to NW. Wind chill falling below 0.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill often below 15.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 13-20 evening, rising into the 20s overnight. Wind NW 5-15 MPH evening, shifting to W overnight.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 33-40. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 5-9)

Temperatures near to below normal. Watching for a potential winter weather event during the March 6-8 time frame. The beginning and end of this period should be fair.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 10-14)

Evolving blocking pattern. A couple of opportunities for unsettled weather. Temperatures near to below normal.

C-19 Chat Post – February 28 2021

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 27 – MARCH 3)

The final weekend of February. Not a stellar weekend, weather-wise, but it could be worse too. We have 2 minor low pressure systems to contend with. The first one’s center will actually pass north of our area this evening but before it does that it sends precipitation into lingering cold enough air to start as snow from the Boston area north and west, with rain to the south except pockets of sleet & snow mixed in where it falls a bit more heavily. The milder air flips everything that is snow over to rain by late morning after a minor accumulation, and the rest of the day features periodic rain. As the low pulls away tonight, it dries out, but a partial clearing of the sky will allow temperatures to drop to near or slightly below freezing in some locations, so watch for black ice formation on untreated surfaces! Sunday, another area of unsettled weather makes a run at the region. This particular system will be a little more disjointed, with a main low passing across southern Canada while another low tries to organizes as it passes by to the south later Sunday and Sunday night. The greatest precipitation threat will be near the South Coast later in the day Sunday, and anything that occurs there will be rain as it will be far too mild to support any snow. The remnants of this system may send a little light rainfall further northward later in the evening before it departs to the east overnight. Monday, the first day of March, will be an interesting day – one that starts mild with a rain shower threat from a cold front, sees falling temperatures during the day and ends at night with the passage of an arctic cold front, possible snow squalls, and a sharp drop in temperature to what would be colder than normal even for mid winter. This arctic air will be around for a brief visit on Tuesday, which despite being a bright day, will feature plenty of wind and air that feels like January. A milder westerly flow will take over by Wednesday and we’ll see a significant temperature recovery…

TODAY: Cloudy with a coating to 1 inch of snow from the Boston area north and west before changing to periods of rain, and periods of rain elsewhere except possibly briefly mixed with sleet in parts of southeastern MA. Highs 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with a chance of rain early, then becoming partly cloudy. Patchy fog forming. Areas of black ice forming on untreated surfaces. Lows 30-37. Wind shifting to W and diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Chance of rain mainly South Coast afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH becoming variable to SE.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain. Lows 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy with a chance of rain showers in the morning. Partly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 45-52 by early afternoon then turning cooler by late-day. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Snow showers/squalls possible. Lows 5-12. Wind W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts shifting to NW. Wind chill falling below 0.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill often below 15.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 13-20 evening, rising into the 20s overnight. Wind NW 5-15 MPH evening, shifting to W overnight.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 4-8)

Fair weather is expected March 4 & 5 but a cold front slips through quietly with a downward trend in temperature Watching for a potential storm system over the March 6-7 weekend that may linger into March 8 with the potential for snow/mix/rain.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 9-13)

Uncertainty in this period as we may see the evolution of another blocking pattern leaving this area vulnerable to disturbances along a temperature battle zone. There will be a lot to sort out in the days ahead.

C-19 Chat Post – February 27 2021

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 26 – MARCH 2)

High pressure brings a nice later winter day today. Low pressure moves quickly across New England Saturday with unsettled weather. Here, it may be cold enough for a bit of snow over interior areas especially near the MA/NH border of an otherwise rain event. Another low makes a run at the region late Sunday but this one should be weaker with the greatest rain threat later in the day near the South Coast. As we get to March, the volatility of that month will be evident in short order as we start mild, end windy and much colder on Monday with the feel of mid winter Tuesday with a sharp but short-lived visit from an arctic air mass.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 23-30. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of rain, starting as snow with a small accumulation from northern MA through southern NH. Highs 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with rain ending. Partly cloudy with patchy fog overnight. Lows 33-40. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Chance of rain mainly South Coast afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH becoming variable to SE.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain. Lows 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy with a chance of rain showers in the morning. Partly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 45-52 by early afternoon then turning cooler by late-day. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Snow showers/squalls possible. Lows 5-12. Wind W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts shifting to NW. Wind chill falling below 0.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill often below 20.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 3-7)

Moderating temperatures, fair & breezy conditions for March 3 with a westerly air flow. Watching for some unsettled weather for at least a brief period around March 4 and again at the end of the period, but low confidence on the outlook as we go out in time.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 8-12)

General westerly flow, but variable pattern as we again will have to watch several disturbances and run the risk of some significant temperature swings. There are also some hints that even though we have a general west to east flow in place that a blocking pattern may start to evolve toward the end of the period which may have implications for mid month.

C-19 Chat Post – February 26 2021

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 25 – MARCH 1)

The wind is in, but the cold is not too bad, in fact today’s temperatures will start out above normal with respect to morning lows and end up right around normal as far as daytime highs would go – in other words, they will remain fairly steady. But it will be a dry day with passing clouds interrupting the sun. Colder air arrives tonight behind a secondary trough of low pressure and then high pressure builds in for a cold but dry and more tranquil day Friday. Systems are on the move quickly and Saturday will turn out unsettled as the first of two low pressure areas make a run at us, passing to the northwest for mainly a rain situation but not a big storm. The second low looks weaker and further south and is going to be more of a cloud producer for Sunday, which will not be a bad day. A little bit of rainfall may take place as we flip the calendar from February to March Sunday night / early Monday, and an additional rain shower may visit the region to start the day Monday before we see the wind pick up and the temperature go down, especially when a secondary cold front arrives later in the day or Monday evening with a snow shower threat…

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Temperatures steady 37-44. Wind NW 15-25 MPH and gusty morning, 10-20 MPH afternoon.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy early then clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 23-30. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of rain, may start as sleet and/or snow. higher elevations north and west. Highs 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with rain ending. Partly cloudy with patchy fog overnight. Lows 33-40. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain. Lows 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy with a chance of rain showers in the morning. Partly sunny in the afternoon with a chance of late-day or evening snow showers. Temperatures steady 38-45 early then falling later in the day. Wind W increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts shifting to NW late.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 2-6)

Short-lived but sharp shot of cold air March 2 with dry/windy weather. Moderating temperatures, fair & breezy conditions for March 3 with a westerly air flow. Watching for some unsettled weather for at least a brief period around March 4 and again at the end of the period, but low confidence on the outlook as we go out in time.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 7-11)

General westerly flow, but variable pattern as we again will have to watch several disturbances and run the risk of some significant temperature swings.

C-19 Chat Post – February 25 2021

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 24-28)

The final 5 days of meteorological winter begin today with one of the nicer winter days we’ve had this season. While we start out with sunshine we will have to deal with cloudiness later this morning into this afternoon as a warm front crosses the region. This front will not bring any precipitation with it, but will serve to shift and increase the wind, so if you are near south-facing shores today you will not ss the warm-up that other areas see. Also, shoreline areas tend to be windier, so today will be a good example of how local variations are present in our weather. This evening a cold front will sweep west to east through the region with the possibility of a rain shower along it, but this front will shift the wind yet again, which will increase even more overnight, and transport colder air into the region. Thursday’s weather will feature sun but a lot of wind and a seasonable chill, which will feel colder due to the wind. A secondary trough swings through at night and delivers slightly colder air for Friday, although as we get into the day Friday the wind will drop off as high pressure moves into the region, so it may actually feel a little less cold Friday with the higher sun angle and less wind than the day before it felt with air not as cold but more wind – another little quirk of weather and how we feel it based on conditions. Looking ahead to the weekend, we’ll have to watch 2 low pressure systems, the first which will make a run at and into New England Saturday, its center passing northwest of our area, so that means milder air and a chance of some rainfall which could start as brief snow or mix in higher elevations well northwest of Boston before it’s simply too mild to support anything frozen falling from the sky. This system exits Saturday night. I don’t have a lot of faith in the second system hanging together as a formidable weather event as it makes its approach Sunday, so for now I just expect that it will add some cloudiness to our sky but deliver no precipitation, at least during the day on Sunday, which will be a mild day.

TODAY: Sun gives way to clouds. Highs 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A passing rain shower possible. Lows 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NW and increasing to 15-25 MPH and gusty overnight.

THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Temperatures steady 35-42. Wind NW 15-25 MPH and gusty morning, 10-20 MPH afternoon.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 21-28. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of rain, may start as sleet and/or snow. higher elevations north and west. Highs 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with rain ending. Partly cloudy with patchy fog overnight. Lows 33-40. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 1-5)

March has a reputation for volatility and fickleness here in New England. March 2021 will probably waste no time displaying both of those traits. Watching at least 1 and probably 2 low pressure systems for potential impact and also watching at least 1 and possibly 2 shots of significant cold air. Timing is uncertain on it all, but the first best shot at a very cold day is March 2. Will sort it out as we go along…

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 6-10)

General westerly flow, but not so simple a pattern as we again will have to watch several disturbances and run the risk of some significant temperature swings.

C-19 Chat Post – February 24 2021

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 23-27)

And now we get to enjoy a couple milder days as we head into the middle of the final week of February, but the price we’ll pay is quite a bit of cloudiness as we have rapidly moving systems rippling along the jet stream flow – one disturbance today, which may produce a brief shower of rain or snow over the interior hills and maybe a sprinkle of rain along the coastal plain, and a cold front which will arrive from the west Wednesday night. We get more sun for Thursday and Friday but the price for that will be a return to colder weather, including wind on Thursday behind that cold front as its parent low intensifies while heading into southeastern Canada. At least Friday will be more tranquil courtesy high pressure. Along comes the next low pressure area for Saturday. It doesn’t look like a strong system, and milder air moving in along with it should mean whatever does fall will be primarily in the form of rain, although we cannot rule out a bit of frozen precipitation at the start, depending on the timing of the arrival.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. A brief shower of snow or rain interior & rain coast. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 29-36. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun gives way to clouds. Highs 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing rain shower possible. Lows 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NW overnight.

THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Temperatures steady 35-42. Wind NW 15-25 MPH morning, 10-20 MPH afternoon.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 21-28. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain, may start as sleet and/or snow. Highs 38-45. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 28 – MARCH 4)

The back half of the final weekend of February will see a return to dry weather between departing low pressure and approaching high pressure, but it will probably be a windy/chilly day too for February 28. The early days of March look changeable both in weather and temperature including the risk of a very sharp shot of arctic air, but I’m not even going to attempt day-by-day at this point as the most reliable guidance we have is in high disagreement with their individual depictions. Will re-evaluate this for the next update and give it another try.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 5-9)

We still have a lot to sort out here. Looks like a generally westerly flow but plenty to track including at least a couple disturbances and the possibility of an additional strong shot of cold air from Canada.

C-19 Chat Post – February 23 2021