DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 13-17)

A nose-in by Canadian high pressure will bring dry/cool weather today. Low pressure spinning over eastern Canada, along with this high, will be instrumental in keeping a storm system to our southwest from moving into the region, only grazing the region this weekend, which will feature mainly dry weather. The only rain chance appears to come early Sunday for the South Coast as the system makes its closest pass. I’m taking the low level moisture drizzle chance out of the forecast at this point, as I think the dry air will be enough to overcome that. Another coastal low will form early in the week and may bring some wet weather to our region by Tuesday, but it looks like even the bulk of this system will remain to our south.

TODAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 57-64. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH with gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49 except 35-42 in the rural areas. Wind NW 5-15 MPH then diminishing.

SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 56-63. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Overnight light rain possible South Coast especially Cape Cod / Islands. Lows 46-54. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Early morning light rain possible South Coast especially Cape Cod / Islands. Highs 54-61. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts in coastal areas.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain/drizzle overnight. Lows 45-52. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain/drizzle. Highs 52-59. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 18-22)

Drying trend first part of period. May have to watch low pressure / frontal system toward the October 21-22 weekend. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 23-27)

Next larger scale system with unsettled weather around October 24-25. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 12-16)

A westerly air flow continues today and Friday around the base of a large low pressure area in eastern Canada. The difference between today and tomorrow will be the temperature, which will be milder today and cooler tomorrow after a cold front goes through the region. This front may kick off a few passing showers this afternoon and early evening, otherwise generally dry weather will prevail. Canadian high pressure noses into New England later Friday as the low in Canada drifts eastward. But that low pressure area is also going to be a player in our weekend weather, not bringing us wet weather, but rather helping us avoid it, for the most part. The next low from the Ohio Valley, once slated by guidance to soak the weekend, will be suppressed southward enough to be a miss, at least with its rain shield. The cloud shield will overspread the region Saturday into Sunday, probably even into Monday as well. But if we’re going to get any “wet” weather it’s more likely to be in the form of drizzle on a moistening northeasterly air flow to the north of the storm, and this would most likely take places closer to the eastern and southern coastal areas Sunday into Monday. Even that forecast may be too pessimistic if dry air is enough to overcome this. If that’s the case, we are technically in the midst of a fairly long dry stretch.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers are possible this afternoon, favoring southern NH and northern MA. Highs 63-70. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 46-53. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 57-64. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 42-49. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 56-63. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 46-54. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of drizzle, favoring southern and eastern areas. Highs 54-61. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts in coastal areas.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Periods of drizzle, favoring southern and eastern coastal areas. Lows 47-54. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with periods of drizzle favoring eastern and southern areas in the morning, then partly sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind NE-N 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 17-21)

Watching another potential coastal low to our south by the middle of next week, and depending on how long that hangs around, another possible frontal system from the west near the end of the period. But don’t read this as a relentless wet/stormy pattern, as the first may be pushed to the south, and the second could be a minor system or timed more slowly.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 22-26)

Difficult to time any system that threaten wet weather. One may be around early, and another later in the period. No major temp extreme expected, but the trend is for cooler over warmer.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 11-15)

Another day with weather driven by upper level low pressure in Canada, and the influence of this system continues Thursday and even into Friday. Cloudiness will be most abundant today, and less so Thursday as a couple disturbances move through the region. The only shot of any rain is in the form of brief isolated quick-moving showers today. A cold front will swing through the region Thursday with no fanfare besides a shifting wind, but it does usher in a cooler air mass for Friday with fair weather expected. Ideas for the weekend hold, with a slower evolution of unsettled weather with the next storm system coming in via the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Atmospheric blocking holds the system back a bit and also forces it a little further south than medium range guidance had originally depicted. For us, this means increasing clouds but no rain Saturday, then a chance of some rain and drizzle, especially in southern and eastern areas, during Sunday as the low makes its closest pass. There are still details to work on as we get closer to the weekend. It’s still possible that the vast majority of the storm’s rain area stays to the south and any wet weather we see in our region is more a result of low level moisture from a northeast flow off the Atlantic.

TODAY: Lots of clouds, intervals of sun, and a slight chance of a brief rain shower. Highs 60-67. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 44-51. Wind SW up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 61-68. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 46-53. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 57-64. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 42-49. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 56-63. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 46-54. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain/drizzle, favoring southern and eastern areas. Highs 54-61. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts in coastal areas.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 16-20)

Wet weather may linger early October 16 followed by a drier interlude, then a rain chance returns as another coastal low can impact the region around the middle of next week, followed by a drying trend late period. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 21-25)

High pressure and fair weather with a milder trend early in the period, a frontal passage cools us down mid period, and low pressure threatens more wet weather by the end of the period.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 10-14)

Upper level low pressure over southeastern Canada continues to be the main influence on our weather through midweek, even into late week, as it only drifts eastward. A disturbance moving around the base of the low brings us clouds and a shower chance today, then occasional cloudiness but generally fair weather Wednesday through Friday. Another frontal boundary swings through the region later Thursday, devoid of a rain chance. This front will take what a is a modest mid-week warm-up and reverse it for Friday, but not drastically. The weekend question still remains: How quickly does developing low pressure in the southern Great Lakes / Ohio Valley move eastward and impact our region with more rain. Right now, I remain in the slower-scenario camp with Saturday just featuring increasing clouds from this system, but rain holding off for at least a dry daytime…

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Passing rain showers possible. Very slight chance of a thunderstorm. Highs 58-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Ground fog patches inland low elevations. Lows 42-49. Wind W 5-15 MPH early, then diminishing.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 60-67. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 44-51. Wind SW up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 61-68. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 46-53. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 42-49. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 56-63. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 15-19)

Low pressure impacts the region with wet/cool weather October 15 into 16. Drier interlude follows but we do need to watch for a hang-back trough that can ignite an additional low to prolong unsettled weather into the middle of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 20-24)

High pressure and fair weather with a milder trend early in the period, a frontal passage cools us down mid period, and low pressure threatens more wet weather by the end of the period.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 9-13)

Upper level low pressure will sit and spin across southeastern Canada for the next several days, pretty much until we get to late this week, and will be the primary driver of the weather across our region. One weak disturbance exits via Cape Cod first thing in the morning but any light showers associated with it are already offshore, so just expect a sun/cloud mix today. Another disturbance from the west will pass by on Tuesday with scattered showers, but I don’t expect this to be much of a rain producer for the region. A similar and probably even weaker system comes by on Thursday with a brief shower threat, while Wednesday is a dry day with a weak high pressure area nosing in to the south of the upper low. An extension of central Canadian high pressure will reach into New England on Friday which will also be dry, but we may see some clouds across at least our southern sky by then as there will be a frontal boundary to our south…

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45 interior, 45-52 coastal plain. Wind SW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Passing rain showers possible. Highs 58-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind W 5-15 MPH early, then diminishing.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 44-51. Wind SW up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. A possible rain shower. Highs 61-68. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 46-53. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 14-18)

And now the forecast dilemma for the October 14-15 weekend. The question remains, how will a broad area of low pressure, part of a large scale blocking pattern with high pressure in central Canada and low pressure to the south, impact our region? My current leaning remains that blocking is strong enough and progress slow enough so that the initial rain area has difficulty reaching New England, and stays to the southwest, with a drier forecast for our region on the Saturday, and low pressure finally bringing a better chance of widespread rain Sunday and possibly Monday (October 16), followed by drier weather toward the middle of next week. Obviously this is not set in stone and something to track and fine-tune in the days ahead.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 19-23)

A wet weather episode possible early or mid period with another trough moving through. Temperatures variable, averaging close to normal overall.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 8-13)

The low pressure merger has taken place to our north, and the systems that combined to give us a cloudy, humid, and at times wet day yesterday will provide us with dry, breezy, cooler, and mainly fair weather for today and Monday to round out the holiday weekend. What cannot be ruled out is a stray sprinkle or light shower out of diurnal clouds that pop up both today and Monday. A more organized disturbance getting absorbed by the larger low to the north will bring a better chance of showers to our region Tuesday, before a weak area of high pressure eliminates this chance again Wednesday, before another disturbance brings some clouds and perhaps a passing shower chance to the region again at some point on Thursday.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Slight chance of a stray passing afternoon shower. Highs 60-67. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy, then clearing. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Passing showers likely. Highs 57-64. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 47-54. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 44-51. Wind SW up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. A shower possible by late-day. Highs 61-68. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 13-17)

A weak high pressure area nosing in from Canada will bring fair weather October 13. The big question is the weather for the weekend of October 14-15. While medium range guidance (three major models) all show a broad low pressure area impacting the region at some point, timing is somewhat variable, but probably a result of how much blocking each model forecasts. Sparing detail (for now) there is a possibility that atmospheric blocking will be stronger than forecast by most guidance, resulting in slower-moving features. This could potentially keep us dry to start that weekend with a wetter second half, but it’s far too soon to scrutinize the set-up deeper than this with any confidence. Drier weather would return later in the period behind this system.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 18-22)

A wet weather episode possible early or mid period as a trough sits over the Northeast. Temperatures near normal, somewhat variable.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 7-12)

Things are on track in our weather world as we begin another holiday weekend in which 1 out of the 3 days will be unsettled. That is today. However we are largely being spared a heavy rain event in most of the region as the post-tropical remains of TS Philippe pass just to our east – the low center heading for the coast of Maine, Down East, and a cold front approaches from the west. Its parent low and Philippe’s low will merge north of our region, and the action of this will pivot the cold front’s shower area and start to weaken it. Between the two we just see areas of scattered showers today, and the main shower area from the front will swing through on its pivot later tonight. The entire system sits and spins north of us on Sunday and Monday, producing breezy, cooler, but dry weather here for the balance of the extended weekend. If you’re heading north for leaf-peeping, both days can see a few scattered showers, but largely will be breezy and cool with a cloud/sun mix, though clouds will probably be more dominating in the mountains than they will be the further south you head in New England, for the most part. A trough swinging through the region from west to east in the late-night Sunday to early-morning hours Monday may trigger a brief shower. A more potent disturbance will enter the circulation from the west on Tuesday. While it will impact our area briefly, a heavier shower or even a thunderstorm can’t be ruled out. Fair weather is ours for Wednesday with a southwesterly breeze as low pressure still spins to our north and northwest and a small high pressure area gets closer to the region from the south.

TODAY: Cloudy. Scattered showers. A period of steadier rain may clip Outer Cape Cod and Nantucket midday into afternoon. Temperatures steady 60-67. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts especially near the coast.

TONIGHT: Cloudy through late evening with scattered showers and pockets of drizzle at first, then more widespread showers moving through the region from southwest to northeast. Breaking clouds but patchy fog overnight. Lows 56-63. Wind E 5-15 MPH evening, variable for a while, then SW 5-15 MPH and gusty overnight.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Temperatures steady 60-67 through early afternoon then falling slowly. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A brief passing shower possible overnight. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Passing showers likely. Chance of a thunderstorm. Highs 57-64. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 47-54. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 60-67. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 12-16)

Of course there are differences in medium range guidance regarding the arrival of the next chance of wet weather, but after a fair weather start to the period I’m looking at around the October 14-15 weekend for wet weather. Plenty of time to fine-tune the details of this.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 17-21)

Overall drier weather expected but still a mean trough position in the Northeast leaves the region vulnerable to a couple more passing wet weather chances. Temperatures not far from normal, somewhat variable.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 6-10)

Another morning, another layer of stratus clouds, and some areas of fog, but unlike yesterday, today’s stratus will find it harder to break up and dissipate. The reasons: Less intense sun with increasing high clouds above, and a more established humid southeasterly air flow. This is ongoing as we have a trough and frontal system approaching from the west, while Tropical Storm Philippe makes its way northward off the US East Coast. The latter will pass east of our region, while losing tropical characteristics through Saturday, the center reaching Downeast Maine by early Sunday. The former will continue its approach but start to change orientation with a more negative tilt developing (the entire system pivots in a counterclockwise direction). The two merge north of our area on Sunday, then hang around there into early next week. While today will be a much cloudier day than yesterday, there can be some breaks of sun, but any rain threat today will be in the form of isolated to scattered sprinkles and light showers as a result of the increasingly humid air flow from the southeast. Tonight and Saturday this isolated to scattered shower threat will continue, but a large portion of the WHW forecast area will see much more rain-free time than anytime there are showers about. Saturday afternoon, the rain shield from Philippe may clip Cape Cod, Cape Ann, and the NH Seacoast, while by late Saturday a strip of showers / downpours will move into the CT Valley area in association with the approaching trough / front from the west. This leaves a good portion of eastern MA and RI in between these areas with limited rain chances. Finally, the frontal band will pivot through the remainder of the region later Saturday night and very early Sunday morning before lifting into northeastern New England and southeastern Canada while the low pressure merger takes place. For Sunday, this places our region in a west to southwest air flow of drier air and we can expect a sun/cloud mix, and cooler, breezy conditions. This will continue through Monday as the broad low pressure circulation remains mostly in place. Tuesday, a disturbance from the west will begin to join this whirling party, and as it comes through, some showers can visit our region. But these should be of the quick-passing variety with otherwise continued breezy and cool conditions.

TODAY: Areas of fog in the morning. Mostly cloudy – breaks of sun possible. Chance of passing sprinkles / very light showers. Highs 68-75. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Possible light showers. Lows 60-67. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Passing sprinkles/showers possible anywhere. Better chance of a period of rain Cape Cod, Cape Ann, and NH Seacoast during the afternoon, and more frequent/widespread showers arrive in the CT Valley later in the day. Temperatures steady 60-67. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts near the coast.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers most likely western areas evening, moving through the remainder of the region late evening and overnight. Temperatures steady 60-67. Wind E 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, becoming variable, then SW overnight.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Temperatures steady 60-67 through early afternoon then falling slowly. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Passing showers possible. Highs 56-63. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 11-15)

Fair weather expected at the start of the period during the middle of next week with temperatures trending milder, then another trough moves into the Northeast with unsettled weather from mid through late period, which includes the October 14-15 weekend.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 16-20)

Overall drier weather expected but still a mean trough position in the Northeast leaves the region vulnerable to a couple more passing wet weather chances. Temperatures not far from normal, somewhat variable.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 5-9)

An extensive stratus/fog layer sits over much of the region early this morning, a product of increased moisture from a light east to southeast air flow and a night of radiational cooling. High pressure hangs on today and allows the sun to burn this stratus/fog off, but it may take several hours to complete. By afternoon we’re in sunshine across the region, but you’ll notice some high clouds starting to fan into the westerly sky later in the day in advance of a trough of low pressure approaching from the west. Our weather takes a turn toward unsettled as we move through Friday and into the start of the weekend, but Friday itself will not be a bad day – just featuring more clouds and higher humidity with slightly cooler air on a southeasterly breeze. Our greatest chance of wet weather will be from the period beginning late Friday evening through Saturday night, however, this is not a straightforward event. Toss in Tropical Storm Philippe, a system that will be tracking northward, passing east of New England Saturday, while losing tropical characteristics. It’s going to send the western edge of its rain shield very close to eastern New England, probably making it into coastal areas for a few hours Saturday. Meanwhile the trough and frontal system approaching from the west are going to start to cut off to our west, slowing their progress. This will also mark the start of an interaction between the low that was Philippe and the low approaching from the west. The showers from the trough and front will get into western New England, and some can be heavy, but their forward progress will slow and a lot of the energy for these may lift more to the north than it can come eastward. Result: The interaction of these 2 systems may spare a good portion of the WHW forecast area from a significant rainfall, but I am still leaving showers in the forecast with lots of cloud cover and high humidity until the system lifts to the north of us on Sunday. At that time we’ll get a flow of dry air from the west, but likely see a sun/cloud mix and maybe a passing shower in a few locations on Sunday. This low will be hanging around to our north for a while, and Monday’s weather will reflect that as a breezy, cool autumn day with some clouds to deal with, but dry weather.

TODAY: Low clouds / fog in much of the region into or through mid morning then developing sunshine with some high clouds arriving later in the day. Highs 69-74 coast, 75-80 inland. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: High clouds increase. Areas of low clouds and fog can redevelop. Lows 57-64. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Areas of fog in the morning. Mostly cloudy – breaks of sun possible. Highs 68-75. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Possible showers. Lows 60-67. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers possible anywhere but most likely eastern coastal areas and far western areas. Temperatures steady 60-67. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts near the coast.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. A period of fog possible late evening / overnight. Temperatures steady 60-67. Wind E 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, becoming variable, then SW overnight.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Temperatures steady 60-67 through early afternoon then falling slowly. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 10-14)

Upper level low pressure, centered in southeastern Canada, will govern the weather with breezy and cool weather continuing early in the period including a possible shower as a disturbance goes by the region. A fair weather interlude as the low pulls away and high pressure moves in at mid period, then by late period we may already see the impacts from the next trough with more unsettled weather arriving from the south and west.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 15-19)

General trough in the Northeast leaves our region vulnerable to additional unsettled weather episodes.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 4-8)

High pressure provides another sun-filled day with a feel of summer in the air. Like yesterday, fog patches will be around in some areas to start, but will burn off quickly. One difference from yesterday as the high center governing the fair weather is in a different place, so the westerly land breeze will be replaced by a more easterly air flow, keeping the coast cooler, but still really nice! High pressure slips off to the east Thursday and Friday. Thursday will still be a nice day featuring a lot of sun, a southeast breeze, and temps down a couple more notches, while Friday will feature higher humidity and more cloud cover, but rain-free conditions through the day. It’s Friday night into the weekend when our next round of wet weather comes. This takes place as a trough of low pressure and an associated frontal system approach and move in from the west, while Tropical Storm Philippe will be losing tropical characteristics while tracking northward in the waters east of New England. Some of the moisture from this system will become involved with the trough and frontal boundary, which will enhance the rainfall and coverage. I’m not looking for a system akin to ones that caused recent major flooding events in the Northeast, but there can be downpours enough to result in some minor to moderate flooding issues especially in areas prone. Unfortunately, the timing for this pretty much results in a good portion of Saturday and Saturday night being wet, though we may be able to sneak a few dry hours in in some locations Saturday. Guidance is split on the rain’s exit, with some saying the rain exits Saturday evening while other models hold it in a bit longer, into early Sunday. I am in preference of the later timing with a rain chance until mid morning Sunday. After this we’ll see a flip to drier weather with a sun/cloud mix, much cooler air, and a drop in humidity during the balance of Sunday. A gusty breeze is likely as the low that was Philippe moves through western Nova Scotia or even northeastern Maine and starts to combine with another low passing to our north into an atmospheric whirlpool over southeastern Canada.

TODAY: Early fog patches, otherwise sunny. Highs 72-77 coast, 77-82 inland. Wind N shifting to E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear, except fog re-forming in some lower elevation locations. Lows 52-59. Wind E under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-73 coast, 73-78 inland. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 58-65. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 68-75. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers arrive. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Highs 67-74. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely including some downpours. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Wind E 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, becoming variable, then SW overnight.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers ending from west to east morning. Sun/cloud mix midday on. Temperatures steady 60-67 through early afternoon then falling slowly. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 9-13)

Upper level low pressure, centered in southeastern Canada, will govern the weather with breezy, cool weather during the first half of next week including a few passing shower chances, but not much in the way of rain. High pressure should push closer for fair and more tranquil weather later in the week.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 14-18)

Unsettled weather opportunity early in the period then a return to drier weather again. Temperatures variable, averaging close to normal.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 3-7)

High pressure in control with a tranquil “taste-of-summer” pattern for midweek starts to slip away by late week as we transition back to unsettled and more humid weather with the approach and arrival of a trough and frontal boundary from the south and west. A few record high temperatures can be challenged today with much of the region seeing a westerly breeze and a warm air mass in place. A “quiet” boundary slips by tonight and the high pressure area that controls tomorrow’s weather is centered further north, turning our wind more easterly, and taking the temps down every so slightly, especially on east-facing shores, but still a very mild day overall. The air flow turns more southeasterly during Thursday and becomes more established as such through Friday when cloud cover and humidity increase. Friday night through Saturday night is an unsettled period, vulnerable to rain showers, high humidity, mild air, and southerly wind. Questionable is the timing of the passage of a cold front sometime later Saturday, which will begin a process of drying/cooling. Have to fine-tune that.

TODAY: Any early fog patches dissipate, otherwise sunshine. Highs 77-84. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Ground fog patches interior lower elevations. Lows 51-58. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 72-79, coolest coastal areas. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches again in lower elevation locations. Lows 50-57. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun and a few clouds. Highs 70-77. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 58-65. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 68-75. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers arrive. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Highs 67-74. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 8-12)

Much cooler pattern with an upper level trough / low pressure in control. Periodic cloudiness and a few rain showers at times, but mostly rain-free. Upper trough should start to exit east with a more tranquil finish to the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 13-17)

Transition from high pressure and fair weather to low pressure and unsettled weather take place during this mid month period. Temperatures variable, averaging close to normal.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 2-6)

High pressure will be in control of the weather through Thursday with temperature dependent on wind direction / position of which of two high centers are in control, as mentioned yesterday. A weak nearly unnoticeable frontal boundary passes by at mid week knocking temps down slightly from their peak on Tuesday. By the end of the week, humidity and cloud cover will be on the increase as we get into a southerly air flow ahead of an approaching trough and frontal system, but we should get through most of if not of all of Friday’s daylight without any significant rain shower threat. As far as wildfire smoke goes, we had plenty of that around yesterday, and it cleared out somewhat last night, but we’ll see it drifting across the region at times today, this time a little more concentrated in western sections, and then after a break tomorrow, it may be back at times during mid week, before the southerly air flow pushes it out and back toward its source region in Canada at the end of the week.

TODAY: Patchy clouds and a few areas of ground fog early, then sunshine, which may be filtered at times by some Canadian wildfire smoke as well. Highs 69-76. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear except ground fog patches developing in lower elevations. Lows 47-54. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 77-84. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Ground fog patches interior lower elevations. Lows 51-58. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 72-79, coolest coastal areas. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches again in lower elevation locations. Lows 50-57. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun and a few clouds. Highs 70-77. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 58-65. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 68-75. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 7-11)

Weather changes for the weekend (October 7-8) with a trough and frontal boundary moving through the region Saturday with episodes of rain showers and high humidity. Depending on the timing of the front, it may still be wet early on Sunday before turning cooler, breezy, and drier behind the front with a sun/cloud mix. The early part of next week will be governed by upper level low pressure bringing clouds at times, a few potential rain showers but often dry, but breezy and cool weather.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 12-16)

High pressure is expected to move in with dry weather, a cool start to the period then a milder trend through mid period. Late-period potential unsettled weather returns with low pressure to the south needing to be watched for any northward advancement.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 1-5)

High pressure is going to be the main player in our weather with fair conditions for the next 5 days. But the first morning of October dawns with clouds mainly across Cape Cod and only a few fog patches across the landscape, so why is there so little sun? The answer: A Canadian wildfire smoke plume, a rather thick one, making the sun look silvery as it rises in the eastern sky through the smoke which sits mainly aloft but also somewhat closer to the surface as well. This plume, brought in by a light northeasterly air flow between departing low pressure and approaching high pressure, will thin from west to east during the day to allow for brighter sun with time. But the main smoke source being fires just south of Hudson Bay Canada and us seeing a northerly wind on Monday with high pressure centered to the west means additional smoke will filter into the region, both at the surface and aloft, again filtering the sun. High pressure slips to our south Tuesday, helping to clear the smoke and also making it a warmer day with 80 degrees not out of reach for some places. A weak frontal boundary will scoot through the region nearly unnoticed Tuesday night, other than the wind will shift to north at night and east Wednesday as a new high pressure area moves out of eastern Canada. There may still be some smoke to contend with heading into midweek but with some luck, the main fire areas in Canada will see a bout of rainfall to help reduce the fires by then (with a more helpful rain due there later this week). By Thursday, high pressure will be east of our region with a southeast to south breeze but still some very nice early autumn weather continuing.

TODAY: Early ground fog patches favoring interior low elevations and early to mid morning clouds on Cape Cod, otherwise smoke-filtered sunshine gradually becoming brighter. Highs 67-74. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Fog patches low elevations. Smoke returns overnight. Lows 47-54. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 69-76. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Ground fog patches interior lower elevations. Lows 47-54. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Ground fog patches interior lower elevations. Lows 47-54. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 68-75, coolest coastal areas. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches again in lower elevation locations. Lows 48-55. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun and a few clouds. Highs 70-77. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 6-10)

October 6-7 sees more humidity, more clouds, a southerly air flow, and eventually a period or two of rain showers with the approach and passage of a frontal system, but I don’t expect this to be a long lasting bout of unsettled weather as we get into a cool, breezy, dry air mass right after that, with a potential reinforcing cool shot on its heels for the end of the period. Details to be worked out…

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 11-15)

High pressure controls the weather with another dry stretch for much of if not all of this period, starting cool followed by a milder trend.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 30 – OCTOBER 4)

On this final day of September and first day of the weekend we’ll remain under the cloud canopy of low pressure located to the south of New England, but the wet weather associated with it will be confined mostly to areas south of I-90 to start the day, with a drying trend as the day goes on. The clouds will begin to thin out and break from northwest to southeast as we get into the afternoon, but probably not enough for any appreciable sun, only some partial sun in areas well to the north and west of Boston. Complete clearing takes place during the nighttime hours though, albeit slowly, as the low pressure area finally starts to pull further out to sea. October arrives and the weekend wraps up Sunday with a very different day. We’ll have lots of sun, some fair weather clouds, and pleasant air as high pressure builds in. This high pressure area will then be in control of the weather the early to middle portion of next week with sunny, mild days, and clear, cool nights.

TODAY: Overcast through early afternoon with periods of rain favoring areas south of I-90. Clouds thin and break especially north and west of Boston later in the day where a glimpse of sun is possible. Highs 58-65. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Slow clearing northwest to southeast. Patchy low elevation fog. Lows 45-52. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Early fog patches dissipate otherwise sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 68-75. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear except ground fog patches forming. Lows 48-55. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 69-76. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Ground fog patches interior lower elevations. Lows 47-54. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 72-79. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Ground fog patches interior lower elevations. Lows 47-54. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 71-78. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 5-9)

Dry weather and above normal temperatures to start the period with high pressure in control, but as high pressure slips to the east a southerly air flow increases the humidity and cloud cover ahead of a cold front, set to pass through the region sometime during October 7. A shorter-duration rain shower threat would accompany this. This will be followed by a cool air mass from Canada along with some gusty wind at least initially. A secondary push of cool air may arrive at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 10-14)

A little more confident now in calling for a drier pattern with high pressure in control much of the time, and a cool start followed by a milder trend.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 29 – OCTOBER 3)

And one more bout of unsettled weather will squeeze in just before the door closes on September. Once again low pressure to our south will be the culprit, and with the help of an upper trough swinging through the region, we’ll see an inverted trough extending northward from low pressure first bring a showery rain to the region today, focused on areas south and west of Boston. Heaviest rainfall with this portion of the event is likely to occur southwest of the WHW forecast area, focused on western CT to the NYC area. As low pressure starts to organize to our south and drift northeastward, the rain area will shift to a more general one focused from the I-90 belt southward, depositing the most significant amounts in the South Coast region tonight while some lighter amounts fall further north, ranging down to hardly any at all once you get to northeastern MA / southern NH. High pressure begins a push southward as the upper and surface lows begin their exit during Saturday midday on, so we’ll start to see improvement at that point, from north to south, with the rain last to end later in the day along the South Coast, especially Cape Cod. Sunshine will start to return from north to south, but may run out of time before reaching the South Coast. It will finish clearing out there during the night though, and this will set the region up for a very nice finish to the weekend on Sunday, with abundant sun, some fair weather clouds, and comfortable air. High pressure then has complete control with fair, milder weather early next week.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers move in from the south during the day, favoring southern and western areas. Highs 60-67. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain evening, becoming steadier overnight, heaviest near and south of I-90. Patchy fog developing overnight. Lows 50-57. Wind E-NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy start including a chance of additional rain especially from the I-90 belt southward, then rain exits and clouds break for sun north to south midday on, but clouds likely linger along the South Coast for longer. Highs 58-65. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear except foggy areas low elevations. Lows 45-52. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Early fog patches dissipate otherwise sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 68-75. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear except ground fog patches forming. Lows 48-55. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 69-76. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 50-57. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 4-8)

Dry weather and above normal temperatures continue as high pressure maintains control of the weather through mid period, then looking ahead a frontal boundary and trough swing through with showers followed by a Canadian cool shot to end the period, based on current expected timing.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 9-13)

The trend is still there for stronger Canadian high pressure in control more often and less opportunity for low pressure to the south to impact the region. With slight hesitation I lean in this direction as a drier pattern with variable temperatures from a front or two passing by in a westerly flow aloft.