DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 24-28)

The low pressure wave that delivered additional rain to much of the region yesterday, especially southeastern areas, has departed with the exception of lingering cloud patches to cross the sky this morning, otherwise a drying westerly air flow and approaching high pressure means a fair weather day. Temperatures will be at seasonably warm levels with humidity lowering to comfortable levels as dew points fall from the 60s into the 50s. The next area of low pressure to contend with moves into the Great Lakes Thursday and across southern Ontario on Friday. Its warm front approaches our area later Thursday, increasing the cloud cover after a sunny start to the day. Showers associated with this front will cross the region Thursday night, and we’ll find ourselves in the warm sector of the low for much of the day Friday. The low’s cold front will then cross the region Friday late afternoon through mid evening, and will be the focal point for a broken to possibly more solid band of showers and thunderstorms. Similar to a recent system, wind shear is decent and instability is a bit lacking for this, so conditions overall are marginal for stronger storms to form, but it will be something we’ll need to watch closely during the day on Friday. The parent low moves into Atlantic Canada by early Saturday and the cold front will slow down as it exits the South Coast. A weak wave of low pressure moving along that front will keep some cloudiness in the region for Saturday morning, and we’ll have to watch for an area of showers that can brush the South Coast before a clearing trend takes over and sunshine becomes more dominant from midday on. Sunday, while surface high pressure keeps the region mainly dry, weak upper level low pressure will trigger just enough instability that a pop-up shower cannot be completely ruled out during the afternoon hours.

TODAY: Patchy clouds morning. Abundant sun midday on. Highs 76-83. Dew point falls into 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Fog patches low elevations. Lows 56-63. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind W under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 75-82, coolest South Coast. Dew point near 60. Wind S to SE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers arrive. Chance of a thunderstorm. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy through mid morning with showers likely and a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Partly sunny midday to late afternoon. Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms from northwest to southeast late afternoon into evening. Highs 78-85. Dew point in 60s. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Lots of clouds morning, then increasing sun. Highs 75-82. Dew point falls below 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Fog patches lower elevations. Lows 55-62. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Sunny start, then a sun / cloud mix. Slight chance of a pop-up shower during the afternoon. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 29 – JULY 3)

One or two disturbances in the region during this time can help trigger a few showers and t-storms. Otherwise, the general pattern features northwesterly flow aloft, high pressure nearby at the surface, and mainly fair weather with near to slightly above normal temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 4-8)

A similar pattern continues around Independence Day and into the following week. A couple shower and thunderstorm chances but dry most of the time. No major sustained heat indicated.