DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 25-29)

High pressure hangs on with dry weather during the day today but clouds will tend to increase ahead of a warm front extending from low pressure moving northeastward into the Great Lakes. As this low continues its journey into and across southeastern Canada tonight through Friday, its warm front will traverse the region with a band of showers and possibly some embedded thunder in the late night hours tonight to early morning hours Friday, exiting eastern areas around or shortly after the break of day. During the day Friday, we’ll spend many hours in the warm sector of the low with increased humidity and southerly wind. Short range model guidance has trended toward slightly more instability available for the development of showers and thunderstorms ahead of and along an approaching cold front later in the day. These will evolve from northwest to southeast. The coverage and intensity of storms will help to be determined by any sunshine we see in the warm sector, which is a factor in the instability. We also have a couple of other atmospheric ingredients in place to support storms becoming strong to possibly severe. It’ll be important to stay weather-aware during the day on Friday while this threat is present. Showers and storms will exit via the South Coast Friday evening as the front sweeps through the region, but the front will slow just offshore and a weak wave of low pressure is expected to slide eastward along it as we begin the weekend. This will delay complete clearing across much of our region, and where cloud cover is most extensive – to the south – we can see a period of rainfall skirt the South Coast region Saturday morning and/or midday. Other than a low chance of a pop-up diurnally-driven shower over inland locations Saturday afternoon, the bulk of the region will see dry weather with mild air and lowering humidity levels. Sunday and Monday both look like mainly fair weather days with weak surface high pressure in control, however a very weak trough at upper levels keeps the air up their just cold enough to support the potential for a pop-up shower or thunderstorm in isolated locations, favoring Sunday, so I am keeping this remote chance in the forecast, just in case.

TODAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 75-82, coolest South Coast. Dew point near 60. Wind S to SE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers arrive. Chance of a thunderstorm. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Showers linger in eastern areas early. Late-day showers and thunderstorms likely from northwest to southeast. Potential for strong to severe storms. Highs 78-85. Dew point peaking in upper 60s. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Any early showers / thunderstorms southeastern areas will move out. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Lots of clouds morning to midday including the chance of light rain near the South Coast, then a sun / cloud mix including the slight chance of a pop-up afternoon shower over inland locations. Highs 75-82. Dew point falls below 60. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches lower elevations. Lows 55-62. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Sunny start, then a sun / cloud mix. Slight chance of a pop-up shower or thunderstorm during the afternoon. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 58-65. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Remote chance of an isolated afternoon shower. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 30 – JULY 4)

General pattern features weak northwesterly flow aloft and high pressure dominating the surface. Temperatures near to above normal with mainly dry weather other than slight chances for pop-up air mass showers or thunderstorms a couple days. A little more day-to-day detail as we get closer to the holiday period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 5-9)

Fairly benign pattern overall but a little more available moisture and a disturbance or two in the region can increase the shower and thunderstorm chance from time to time.