DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 15-19)
High pressure from Canada brings us pleasantly mild, dry weather with low humidity today and as it crests over our region, tonight ends up feeling rather cool in comparison to many recent warmer nights. Sunday, high pressure shifts offshore while it still has enough influence to give us a nice summer day, you’ll notice an up-tick in the humidity level by later in the day along with increasing cloud cover ahead of low pressure moving into the Great Lakes. This low pressure area gives us our next round of unsettled weather later Sunday night and Monday as it moves eastward and redevelops just south of our region. That conglomeration during transition will bring us episodic showery weather for 12 to 18 hours from around midnight Sunday night to sometime between noon and the end of the afternoon on Monday before it exits to the east. Behind it, high pressure returns Tuesday with generally fair weather, although lingering low level moisture left behind by the rainfall and heated by the sun will trigger some pop-up clouds to mix with the sun. High pressure shifts offshore Wednesday with sunshine and a light southerly breeze which will bring a tad bit more humidity back again, but not that noticeable with modest afternoon warmth after a somewhat cool start to the day.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82. Dew point upper 40s to 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 53-60. Dew point near 50. Wind variable under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Sunshine, then increasing clouds later in the day. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Dew point rises to 60+ by later in the day. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes by midday, then S 5-15 MPH by late-day.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers arrive west to east including the chance of a thunderstorm. Areas of fog overnight. Lows 65-72. Dew point near 65. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers and possibly a thunderstorm, tapering off during the afternoon southwest to northeast. Highs 72-89. Dew point 60s. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH, shifting to N late-day.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing but ground fog patches around. Lows 55-62. Dew point falls under 55 by dawn. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 80-87, cooler some coastal areas. Dew point near 50. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 53-60. Dew point near 50. Wind calm.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80 South Coast / Cape Cod, 80-87 elsewhere. Dew point climbs to around 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 20-24)
Trough / frontal system brings a shower and thunderstorm chance to the region during August 20. Generally dry weather after this with high pressure keeping unsettled weather off to our south, but this may change toward the end of the period when we’ll have to watch for some unsettled weather.
DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 25-29)
Best opportunity for unsettled weather starts the period with mainly fair weather following this. Temperatures mostly around seasonable levels.
Good morning and thank you. 55/54 with a low of 54. Love nights where you can open windows and let the cold in.
Wordle 4
Excellent 4, Vicki !
Thank you and awesome that you got it. Welcome aboard.
I’m with Tom. It took me 6 tries. Not to give a hint, but common words always give me trouble. I keep thinking that NYT will use more obscure words.
Welcome aboard and yes, I’m thinking more complicated words which blinds me to the less complicated words.
Like Tom, you got it.
Great to get it, Bill!
Nice 4
Thanks TK for a great weekend forecast !
Wordle: I made the train today with a whew (6). I’ll take it !! 🙂
Most of our weekends have been fabulous this summer. How come the media isn’t keeping track of that? 😉
This is 11 in a row now! Amazing streak!
You made it.
Good mornibg and thank you Th
67 up from 62
Ocean: 71
Wordle: 4. Thought I was going to get it in 2 after having the last 3 letters in position with 1st guess. Too many choices as guesses 2 and 3 were not correct. Got it on guess 4.
Excellent 4, JpDave !
Thank you.
Very nice 4!!
For those who browse social media. Today there are posts out there highlighting the big island of Hawaii getting their first hurricane in recorded history. This is WRONG for a number of reasons, mainly because it’s not true, but I could nit-pick a dozen things wrong with the statement.
Highlighting a few of them…
1) Lala isn’t even a hurricane (as of 09z).
2) It may not be one when it makes its closest pass to the big island (even though it’s forecast to be a minimal one at 75 MPH).
3) It’s not likely to make landfall. The center likely passes OFFSHORE.
4) There have been many tropical cyclone that have impacted the big island one way or another.
Most pages not run by professionals are in it for reactions, clicks, shares, and ultimately making money off non-truth. Don’t help them.
This falls into Wolfgang Pauli’s category of “Not even wrong.”
Hah!
Congratulations to all on the Wordle train today. After some hilariously bad luck, I’ll be enjoying this wonderful weather from my Kalamazoo! 🙂
NO spoilers:
https://ibb.co/Q7JCwHq0
Sorry,
Definitely a word trap word. Just way too many choices.
When I looked it up and found that there were 20 different words ending in the last 3 letters of today’s word, I see that I was most fortunate to get it in 4. Some of the words are not fair at all.
Oh ugh. So many choices. You’ll be back tomorrow
In other tropical topics…
Hernan (Eastern Pacific) is a done deal. See ya! Over water, no worries, dissipating, byebye.
Two other disturbances have limited opportunity for development over the next 7 days, so despite “super El Nino”, which by the way is not a real term, it’s a “strong El Nino”, it’s not “super” active in the Pacific at the moment. Haha. 😉
Atlantic. Yesterday I said that one of two disturbance that were being eyed was falling apart and no longer really a concern. Well, now you can make that both of them. Zzzzz.
I have not joined the Wordle crowd yet, but it may be a while. I have started playing the daily trivia on Facebook though. My quest is to get 9 out of 9 correct in under 45 seconds. I’ve yet to do it. I’ve gotten 9 out of 9 several times, but my record is 47 seconds. Need 3 seconds improvement.
Maybe I’ll dip my toes in the Wordle pool after I have my surgery and am in recovery mode. 🙂
Do you have a link to the trivia you play on Facebook? I would love to play also.
https://www.facebook.com/share/1HBn9mfcyJ/
See if that works.
It might take you to my game today, but it should have a spot in there where you can click to play it.
My game today was 9 out of 9, but in 51 seconds. Still gotta get faster!
Thank you. Was going to ask for a link too.
Look forward to you joining the wordle crowd. 🙂
Thank you TK!
Wordle: 4
Nice. Welcome aboard the 4 car.
Awesome, Sue!
To TK:
Can you please post the WHW geography? Yes, I know I should know it by now but I am trying to figure something out. TIA
Are you referring to the WHW forecast area?
Yes please.
With all the talk about Drake Passage, here is a map so people can see exactly where it is:
https://cdn.sanity.io/images/rd0y3pad/blog-production/f2040ef45bf53c2dd5aa84441cf4f78bc30b8309-3567×2480.jpg?w=3840&q=75&fit=max&auto=format
Wordle 3 today! Got lucky in that I guessed the right one girst….
Excellent!!!
Wow. Superb 3!
El Nino gets an unfair shake over La Nina. It’s thought of as “the bad guy”, much worse than its sister. Well, not always true. There are impacts from both phases of ENSO, some good, some not so good.
El Nino carries some great news with it this time: Low tropical activity in the Atlantic. Also, coming drought relief for large drought areas in the West. Yes, there are negative impacts too, but we should definitely include the positive ones in the discussion.
Also, many already calling it a record El Nino. Well, it hasn’t reached that point. And it remains to be seen if it will (it may, but that’s not guaranteed). Either way, its analog is 1877-1878. There were significant casualties from the events that were likely enhanced by that El Nino, but that was BEFORE our modern warning system. Well before it. And well before our ability to inform well in advance of adverse conditions.
Important to keep things in perspective, and REALISTIC.
TKs trivia game is tons of fun. And it’s fast. 8/9 for me today. I’ll start timing myself.
Tried it. Got 9 of 9, but took 66 seconds
Nice. I went back on the trivia to see which question I missed. It has me take the quiz over and darned if I know which one it was cause I got a 9 which sadly throws my overall score off. Darn.
I had an abysmal 5 out of 9 one day earlier this week. Ouch!
Ouch is right. But I suspect bound to happen
Well done, I was 8/9 in 64 seconds.
I did have to make an educated guess on one, but the others were no issue.
Thanks, TK.
Thanks, TK!
76/54
Thanks TK
To TK.
Yes, the WHW forecast area.
Thank you.
Basically start at the Connecticut River and go east while including the 3 southernmost counties of NH. 🙂
Poor JJ…
🙁 Sniff
Thank you!
https://radar.weather.gov/region/hawaii/standard
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KMOH1&hours=72
Some rain, some wind. Low to moderate tropical storm.
I’d say it is impacting the Big island!!! 🙂
Yes, a good amount of rain for sure !
Decent rain and wind, but not a direct hit. Post all over social media are talking about this being the first hurricane in recorded history to hit the big island.
Wrong. Wrong. Wrong.
Let’s just ignore the category 3 strength hurricane that made a direct hit on the island in 1871, and the numerous other cyclones that have had impact on the region. That’s ok if we do that, right? So we can hype this one? Right??? 😉
TK – Recently you posted the destruction of Puerto Rico in 1899 due to a hurricane. I responded by asking you if that hurricane continued a destructive path anywhere else thereafter and you stated that you would get back to me on that. Have you been able to research that any further? Just wondering.
Actually, this Wiki article is about as comprehensive as you’ll find on this absolutely remarkable storm. It remains the longest-lived Atlantic system on record and the third longest globally.
NOTE: “On record” is a fuzzy term. It’s very entirely possible there are storms nearly as long-lived as the top 3 that we never were able to adequately observe before it was so much easier to “see” these storms from the start of the satellite era. But, based on the records we have, it’s #3.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1899_San_Ciriaco_hurricane
Thanks TK! 🙂
It’s amazing there was as much “warning” as it was, given the time period. It had to have been at least a strong Cat 4 if not a 5.
Retro-analysis is finding that most hurricanes were stronger than initially thought prior to the satellite era.
The perception that storms are stronger now is actually incorrect. They are not, in general. There are exceptions, and spikes (as well as troughs) in the record. But the long term .. nope.
Many hurricanes were reclassified after they hit. There’re also a lot of studies strength then versus now
https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/FLOATER/CP012026/Sandwich/20262271340-20262271940-ABI-CP012026-Sandwich-1000×1000.gif
Hurricane Lala !
I was impressed with the radar presentation and now it’s trying to form an eye.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=01C&product=vis_swir
Visible satellite courtesy of tropical tidbits
It would seem that the social media trolls TK mentioned above ended up being correct after all (a hurricane).
No, they were not. You’re completely incorrect. The media trolls have stated completely falsely the impact of Lala. See above please. And don’t bend to the bullcrap out there. It’s not a wise choice.
Lala is a minimal hurricane, the center of which is going to pass just offshore to the south. That is not a direct hit. Also, I never said definitively that it would NOT become a hurricane. I said that it was not a guarantee. My words were “It may not be one when it makes its closest pass to the big island.” I never said “it will not become one”. Please don’t mis-read my words, and don’t give “trolls” (as you called them, not I) credit they don’t deserve. I referred to the non-professionals running pages that have no business giving such information. That information should be coming ONLY from professionals or people otherwise aptly qualified to pass long data responsibly.
Pretty (in pink) billowy clouds with sunset. 🙂
❤️
I sat at the wrong beach today – line of clouds hits kept coming over our beach but sunny elsewhere . I should have went to Horseneck!
Darn. But hope it was fun to watch the sky
9:45 pm. 62/53
Thanks, TK.
Mountain hikes are deceptively strenuous on the heart. See link below. We don’t know for sure what the medical emergency was. But in so many instances it turns out to be cardiovascular. A friend’s father died climbing Tuckerman’s Ravine.
I’ve done the Hale hike in Bethlehem, NH. It’s officially called a moderate ascent. It’s not an easy one.
Hiker dies after suffering medical emergency on NH mountain https://share.google/mKm7sydQfdJWCzlQo
I’ve used the Hale Brrok to climb to Zealanf Falls. Rated moderate, but last 100 feet to the hut are difficult.